Air Water Ventures (WATR)
Market Price (9/7/2026): $1.95 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Air Water Ventures (WATR)
Market Price (9/7/2026): $1.95Market Cap: $-Sector: IndustrialsIndustry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Wastewater Management, and Desalination. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Wastewater Management, and Desalination. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 9/3/2026
Air Water Ventures (WATR) stock has lost about 25% since it went public on 8/17/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Post-SPAC Volatility and Valuation Adjustment.
Air Water Ventures (WATR) debuted on August 17, 2026, through a de-SPAC merger, a listing method frequently associated with heightened initial stock volatility. While the stock experienced an early speculative jump of approximately 13% shortly after listing, a more significant correction followed. The company came public with an initial pre-money equity valuation ranging from $200 million to $300 million, yet its market capitalization subsequently declined to approximately $61 million to $67 million as of early September 2026. This substantial decrease in market value indicates a rapid market re-evaluation of the company's prospects post-IPO.
2. High Execution Risk and Unproven Business Economics.
The company operates in the atmospheric water generation sector, an industry characterized by its energy and capital intensity. Air Water Ventures has a limited operating history and a history of losses, and the long-term economics of producing and distributing premium water at scale remain unproven for the young company. Compounding this, the company faces significant competition from established beverage brands, contributing to high execution risk as it endeavors to scale its operations and build its brand.
Show more
Air Water Ventures (WATR) stock has lost about 25% since it went public on 8/17/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Post-SPAC Volatility and Valuation Adjustment.
Air Water Ventures (WATR) debuted on August 17, 2026, through a de-SPAC merger, a listing method frequently associated with heightened initial stock volatility. While the stock experienced an early speculative jump of approximately 13% shortly after listing, a more significant correction followed. The company came public with an initial pre-money equity valuation ranging from $200 million to $300 million, yet its market capitalization subsequently declined to approximately $61 million to $67 million as of early September 2026. This substantial decrease in market value indicates a rapid market re-evaluation of the company's prospects post-IPO.
2. High Execution Risk and Unproven Business Economics.
The company operates in the atmospheric water generation sector, an industry characterized by its energy and capital intensity. Air Water Ventures has a limited operating history and a history of losses, and the long-term economics of producing and distributing premium water at scale remain unproven for the young company. Compounding this, the company faces significant competition from established beverage brands, contributing to high execution risk as it endeavors to scale its operations and build its brand.
Show more
Updated on 9/3/2026
Air Water Ventures (WATR) stock has lost about 25% since it went public on 8/17/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Post-SPAC Volatility and Valuation Adjustment.
Air Water Ventures (WATR) debuted on August 17, 2026, through a de-SPAC merger, a listing method frequently associated with heightened initial stock volatility. While the stock experienced an early speculative jump of approximately 13% shortly after listing, a more significant correction followed. The company came public with an initial pre-money equity valuation ranging from $200 million to $300 million, yet its market capitalization subsequently declined to approximately $61 million to $67 million as of early September 2026. This substantial decrease in market value indicates a rapid market re-evaluation of the company's prospects post-IPO.
2. High Execution Risk and Unproven Business Economics.
The company operates in the atmospheric water generation sector, an industry characterized by its energy and capital intensity. Air Water Ventures has a limited operating history and a history of losses, and the long-term economics of producing and distributing premium water at scale remain unproven for the young company. Compounding this, the company faces significant competition from established beverage brands, contributing to high execution risk as it endeavors to scale its operations and build its brand.
3. Potential for Future Share Dilution.
The terms of the de-SPAC merger include provisions for up to 20 million earnout shares that could be issued to equity holders through June 30, 2028, contingent on specific revenue, EBITDA, and share-price triggers. Furthermore, on August 20, 2026, Air Water Ventures announced a non-binding letter of intent to acquire a spring water brand for $100 million, with $92.5 million of the consideration expected to be in company common stock. These elements introduce a potential for future share dilution, which can weigh on investor sentiment and stock performance.
Show less
Air Water Ventures (WATR) stock has lost about 25% since it went public on 8/17/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Post-SPAC Volatility and Valuation Adjustment.
Air Water Ventures (WATR) debuted on August 17, 2026, through a de-SPAC merger, a listing method frequently associated with heightened initial stock volatility. While the stock experienced an early speculative jump of approximately 13% shortly after listing, a more significant correction followed. The company came public with an initial pre-money equity valuation ranging from $200 million to $300 million, yet its market capitalization subsequently declined to approximately $61 million to $67 million as of early September 2026. This substantial decrease in market value indicates a rapid market re-evaluation of the company's prospects post-IPO.
2. High Execution Risk and Unproven Business Economics.
The company operates in the atmospheric water generation sector, an industry characterized by its energy and capital intensity. Air Water Ventures has a limited operating history and a history of losses, and the long-term economics of producing and distributing premium water at scale remain unproven for the young company. Compounding this, the company faces significant competition from established beverage brands, contributing to high execution risk as it endeavors to scale its operations and build its brand.
3. Potential for Future Share Dilution.
The terms of the de-SPAC merger include provisions for up to 20 million earnout shares that could be issued to equity holders through June 30, 2028, contingent on specific revenue, EBITDA, and share-price triggers. Furthermore, on August 20, 2026, Air Water Ventures announced a non-binding letter of intent to acquire a spring water brand for $100 million, with $92.5 million of the consideration expected to be in company common stock. These elements introduce a potential for future share dilution, which can weigh on investor sentiment and stock performance.
Show less
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WATR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | -37.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 1.2% | -44.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WATR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | -37.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | -0.8% | -44.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WATR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 20.4% | -37.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 16.5% | -44.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WATR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 77.1% | -37.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 68.7% | -44.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WATR Return | - | - | - | - | - | -22% | -22% |
| Peers Return | 31% | -25% | 28% | 11% | 16% | -3% | 58% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WATR Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 33% | 60% | 57% | 62% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WATR Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -40% | -20% | -16% | -20% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: XYL, PNR, AWK, WTS, ECL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
WATR has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 62 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
WATR has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Peer Outperformance in Trading Companies & Distributors
nullShare of Trading Companies & Distributors constituents that WATR has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
—
insufficient peer history
3Y
—
insufficient peer history
5Y
—
insufficient peer history
null
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Trading Companies & Distributors is WATR's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 20.5% | 108.4% | 188.0% | CDNL 2702% · FIX 2105% · STRL 2023% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 70.5% | 68.4% | 166.4% | HOS 48321% · MATX 186% · KEX 166% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 14.3% | 66.0% | 119.0% | CAT 326% · ALSN 281% · WAB 228% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 55 | -1.8% | 61.1% | 72.0% | ATI 1099% · FTAI 916% · HWM 741% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -11.2% | 55.0% | 55.1% | UBER 85% · CAR 55% · LYFT -67% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 10.1% | 45.7% | 48.4% | CRS 1444% · PSIX 952% · EROC 609% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 31.0% | 74.7% | 47.4% | FSTR 138% · CSX 68% · UNP 52% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 38.0% | 7.2% | 36.2% | XPO 266% · R 250% · CVLG 216% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors ← | 19 | 2.7% | 33.6% | 32.5% | DXPE 545% · AIT 293% · WCC 220% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 12.7% | 31.0% | 28.0% | LIME 4173% · WLFC 368% · TH 366% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 17.6% | 52.2% | 22.5% | POWL 2220% · BE 1076% · VRT 905% |
| Building Products | 33 | -11.0% | 6.3% | 19.3% | LMB 593% · GFF 397% · PPIH 303% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 14.1% | 5.8% | -5.3% | BLBD 215% · DE 99% · GENC 55% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -10.1% | -21.2% | -5.4% | HURN 216% · GRNQ 140% · CRAI 92% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -8.4% | 21.4% | -11.5% | CECO 888% · ADUR 558% · NVRI 351% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 10.5% | 14.5% | -13.7% | RCMT 609% · CSW 139% · CSL 83% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -31.3% | -12.6% | -24.8% | EXLS 50% · BR 13% · G -22% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 2.4% | 1.3% | -26.4% | LTM 2779% · UAL 139% · SKYW 116% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 12.0% | 26.8% | -30.1% | PBI 193% · TILE 157% · HNI 59% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 8.4% | -18.2% | -35.1% | BBSI 87% · ADP 53% · KFY 29% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -8.2% | -21.6% | -38.0% | CHRW 88% · FDX 68% · EXPD 63% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -36.1% | 7.9% | -40.1% | CIX 139% · MG 101% · NL 54% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -67.1% | -76.8% | -57.2% | JOBY -30% · ASLE -57% · UP -100% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 123.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 25.0 |
| Rev LTM | 5,284 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,419 |
| FCF LTM | 673 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 715 |
| CFO LTM | 1,301 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,243 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 12.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
Price Behavior
null
WATR Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.33 | -0.84 | -2.32 | 5.19 | -0.72 | 0.72 |
| Up Beta | -5.90 | -7.25 | 7.19 | -1.39 | -8.25 | 6.77 |
| Down Beta | 7.46 | 17.46 | -2.70 | -6.68 | -13.88 | 3.71 |
| Up Capture | -220% | -106% | -61% | -23% | -11% | -1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Down Capture | -68% | -26% | -14% | -8% | -5% | -3% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WATR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WATR | -23.6% | 96.8% | -4.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 17.0% | 17.1% | 0.75 | -44.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.7% | 12.8% | 1.13 | -37.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.6% | 29.2% | 0.75 | -16.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.8% | 20.3% | 1.67 | -6.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.1% | 13.6% | 0.39 | -9.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.1% | 43.8% | -0.63 | -5.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WATR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WATR | -5.2% | 96.8% | -4.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.4% | 17.6% | 0.54 | -44.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.2% | 0.57 | -37.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.82 | -16.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.5% | 0.43 | -6.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.7% | 18.9% | -0.01 | -9.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.2% | 52.6% | 0.38 | -5.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WATR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WATR | -2.6% | 96.8% | -4.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 20.0% | 0.59 | -44.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | -37.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.4% | 16.3% | 0.62 | -16.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.35 | -6.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | -9.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.7% | 66.2% | 1.03 | -5.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Trading Companies & Distributors Resources |
| Modern Distribution Management (MDM) |
| Industrial Distribution |
| Supply Chain Digital |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.
Core Cache Last Updated: 9/6/2026