Velocity Financial (VEL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.14 | Market Cap: $728.7 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Velocity Financial (VEL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.14Market Cap: $728.7 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.0%, FCF Yield is 8.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 876% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Private Credit. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.0%, FCF Yield is 8.0% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Private Credit. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 876% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VEL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Velocity Financial (VEL) stock moved by 1.3% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Q2 2025 Financial Performance: Although released just before the specified period on August 7, 2025, Velocity Financial reported robust second-quarter 2025 results, including a 75.9% increase in net income and a 72.6% rise in core net income compared to Q2 2024. This strong performance set a positive tone for the stock as the period began.
2. Exceeded Q3 2025 Earnings Expectations: On November 6, 2025, Velocity Financial announced significantly strong third-quarter 2025 results. The company reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.65, an increase from $0.44 in Q3 2024, and a net income of $25.4 million, marking a 60.6% increase from the prior year's third quarter. The adjusted EPS of $0.69 notably beat the mean analyst expectation of $0.61 per share.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VEL Return | - | 120% | -30% | 78% | 14% | -1% | 211% |
| Peers Return | 36% | 14% | -28% | 56% | 6% | 15% | 113% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VEL Win Rate | 36% | 75% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 65% | 38% | 55% | 53% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VEL Max Drawdown | - | -2% | -38% | -18% | -12% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -41% | -13% | -39% | -9% | -16% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ESNT, WD, SNFCA, RKT, PFSI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -83.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 492.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1320 days | 148 days |
Compare to ESNT, WD, SNFCA, RKT, PFSI
In The Past
Velocity Financial's stock fell -42.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -42.1% loss requires a 72.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VEL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Velocity Financial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 40.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,263 |
| Op Inc LTM | 341 |
| FCF LTM | -451 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 47 |
| CFO LTM | -402 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 49 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 28.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 27.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -4.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.1 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 9.5 |
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/CFO | 0.9 |
| Total Yield | 9.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 78.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 8.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Szczepaniak Mark R | Chief Financial Officer | 11032025 | Sell | 18.50 | 1,572 | 29,088 | 898,151 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |