Visa (V)
Market Price (12/12/2025): $347.76 | Market Cap: $450.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Visa (V)
Market Price (12/12/2025): $347.76Market Cap: $450.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -6.0% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 66% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%, CFO LTM is 23 Bil, FCF LTM is 22 Bil | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cybersecurity, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 66% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%, CFO LTM is 23 Bil, FCF LTM is 22 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cybersecurity, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -6.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
V Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The recent -1.6% movement in Visa's stock (V) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 12, 2025, can be attributed to several factors contributing to a period of underperformance and pullbacks before recent upgrades.
1. Concerns Regarding Stablecoin Disruption: Initial market apprehension existed about stablecoins potentially disrupting traditional card-based payment methods, which could have prompted a decline in investor confidence. While analysts later viewed this as an opportunity for Visa, early concerns could have contributed to a negative stock movement.
2. Intensifying Regulatory Scrutiny and Potential Fee Impacts: Increased regulatory focus on the global payments industry and potential governmental pressure on fee structures presented risks of eroding Visa's margins and challenging its growth narrative. This heightened scrutiny could have weighed on the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| V Return | 17% | -0% | -3% | 26% | 22% | 4% | 81% |
| Peers Return | 31% | -5% | -20% | 20% | 33% | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| V Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 42% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 55% | 42% | 57% | 63% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| V Max Drawdown | -28% | -13% | -18% | -0% | -2% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -21% | -29% | -8% | -8% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MA, AXP, PYPL, FI, GPN. See V Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/11/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | V | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 417 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 332 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MA, AXP, COF, ADP, V
In The Past
Visa's stock fell -29.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/27/2021. A -29.2% loss requires a 41.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to V. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.9% | 3.9% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 11.9% | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.7% | 4.7% | -2.7% |
| 12312022 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 14.8% | 26.3% | -0.2% |
| 06302022 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.3% | 21.9% | -9.6% |
| 11302021 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.9% | 13.1% | -7.8% |
| 10312020 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.9% | 17.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.9% | 3.9% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 11.9% | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.7% | 4.7% | -2.7% |
| 12312022 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 14.8% | 26.3% | -0.2% |
| 06302022 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.3% | 21.9% | -9.6% |
| 11302021 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.9% | 13.1% | -7.8% |
| 10312020 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.9% | 17.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Visa
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 345.63 |
| Mkt Cap | 162.5 |
| Rev LTM | 31,552 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,344 |
| FCF LTM | 10,716 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,838 |
| CFO LTM | 11,862 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,769 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 162.5 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 11.5 |
| P/E | 21.4 |
| P/CFO | 10.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 60.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -10.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | -1.6% | -1.9% | -3.6% |
| 7/29/2025 | -0.1% | -3.9% | -0.1% |
| 4/29/2025 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 6.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.4% | 1.3% | 5.6% |
| 10/29/2024 | 2.9% | 4.0% | 11.9% |
| 7/23/2024 | -4.0% | -0.6% | 1.5% |
| 4/23/2024 | 0.3% | -2.0% | 0.7% |
| 1/25/2024 | -1.7% | 1.6% | 4.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 2.2% | 6.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.4% | -3.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.6% | 12.3% | 16.8% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -9.8% | -12.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1312025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1262024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11152023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1272023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11162022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1282022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | CARNEY LLOYD | 11052025 | Sell | 336.48 | 900 | 302,832 | 830,433 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |