USA Rare Earth (USAR)


Market Price (8/8/2026): $19.48 | Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

USA Rare Earth (USAR)


Market Price (8/8/2026): $19.48
Market Cap: $3.8 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -46%

Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -47%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include Rare Earth Elements.

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%

Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -87 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1189%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 517x

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 169%

Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -778%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1772%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15%

High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 117%

0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -46%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -47%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include Rare Earth Elements.
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -87 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1189%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 517x
6 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 169%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -778%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1772%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15%
9 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 117%

USAR in ETFs

Weight = USAR's share of each fund

ITOT0.00%
IWM0.11%
VB0.02%
IWO0.19%
VTWO0.13%
VBK0.06%
SCHA0.05%
ESML0.04%
+3 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 8/7/2026

USA Rare Earth (USAR) stock has lost about 25% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Significant Insider Selling Exceeding Threshold. On June 5, 2026, Critical Minerals Trust Affiliate, a 10% owner, initiated a proposed sale totaling over USD 105 million. This substantial insider selling, well above the USD 5 million threshold, signaled a lack of confidence from a major stakeholder and likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.

2. Continued Operational Losses and High Capital Expenditures. For fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026, USA Rare Earth reported a net loss of approximately $67 million on $6 million in revenue, along with $38.6 million in capital expenditures. Despite beating analyst EPS estimates for the quarter, the company's ongoing substantial spending and minimal revenue as it builds out its infrastructure weighed on the stock, a factor explicitly noted by analysts.

Show more
Updated on 8/7/2026

USA Rare Earth (USAR) stock has lost about 25% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Significant Insider Selling Exceeding Threshold. On June 5, 2026, Critical Minerals Trust Affiliate, a 10% owner, initiated a proposed sale totaling over USD 105 million. This substantial insider selling, well above the USD 5 million threshold, signaled a lack of confidence from a major stakeholder and likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.

2. Continued Operational Losses and High Capital Expenditures. For fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026, USA Rare Earth reported a net loss of approximately $67 million on $6 million in revenue, along with $38.6 million in capital expenditures. Despite beating analyst EPS estimates for the quarter, the company's ongoing substantial spending and minimal revenue as it builds out its infrastructure weighed on the stock, a factor explicitly noted by analysts.

3. Analyst Price Target Reductions. In July 2026, several investment firms reduced their price targets for USA Rare Earth. Notably, Needham & Company LLC lowered its target from $39.00 to $33.00 on July 22, 2026, and Roth Capital dropped its objective from $40.00 to $30.00 on July 21, 2026. These downward revisions from key analysts likely contributed to a more bearish outlook and selling pressure on the stock.

4. Geopolitical and Market Volatility in the Rare Earths Sector. The broader rare earths market experienced heightened volatility throughout fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, Chinese export controls, and global efforts to establish alternative supply chains. These macroeconomic factors created a challenging and uncertain environment for development-stage companies like USA Rare Earth, particularly concerning the economic viability of non-Chinese heavy rare earth projects without specific price premiums.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -25.6% change in USAR stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -68.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020268072026Change
Stock Price ($)25.9719.33-25.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)27346.8%
P/S Multiple1,663.7517.4-68.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)105196-46.4%
Cumulative Contribution-25.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 8/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
USAR-25.6% 
Market (SPY)7.6%65.3%
Sector (XLB)2.7%29.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The -13.8% change in USAR stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a null change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120268072026Change
Stock Price ($)22.4219.33-13.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)079.2233720368547763E17%
P/S Multiple517.4 
Shares Outstanding (Mil)103196-47.8%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 8/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
USAR-13.8% 
Market (SPY)12.1%57.0%
Sector (XLB)7.8%35.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 52.1% change in USAR stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120258072026Change
Stock Price ($)12.7119.3352.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)70.0%
P/S Multiple517.40.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)59196-69.8%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 8/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
USAR52.1% 
Market (SPY)23.4%37.6%
Sector (XLB)22.2%28.0%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

7/31/2023 to 8/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
USAR64765.8% 
Market (SPY)74.9%9.5%
Sector (XLB)30.2%8.5%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
USAR Return0%0%0%0%39833%46%58323%
Peers Return41%-17%5%-31%169%26%184%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%13%105%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
USAR Win Rate0%0%0%0%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate44%38%44%40%67%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
USAR Max Drawdown0%0%0%0%-69%-57% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-36%-45%-47%-47%-49% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MP, UUUU, NB, MTRN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/7/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventUSARS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-69.0%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven222.6%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven139 days79 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-85.7%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven600.0%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven14 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-90.0%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven900.0%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven21 days15 days

Compare to MP, UUUU, NB, MTRN

In The Past

USA Rare Earth's stock fell -69.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 222.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventUSARS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-69.0%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven222.6%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven139 days79 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-85.7%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven600.0%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven14 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-90.0%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven900.0%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven21 days15 days

Compare to MP, UUUU, NB, MTRN

In The Past

USA Rare Earth's stock fell -69.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 222.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About USA Rare Earth (USAR)

USA Rare Earth (USAR) operates as a blank check company, also known as a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC). Its primary business objective is to identify and acquire one or more existing private businesses through a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, or similar business combination. The company does not currently have any operational products or services; its sole purpose is to facilitate the public listing of a private enterprise through an acquisition.

While USAR has not yet selected a specific acquisition target, it intends to focus its search initially on North American and European businesses operating in disruptive growth sectors. The company leverages its management team's extensive experience and network to source potential business combination partners, including companies backed by venture capital and private equity, other private entities, and public companies considering SPAC combinations via spinoffs.

USAR's strategy involves partnering with proven, exceptional management teams that are already in place within target companies. The company positions itself as a founder-friendly sponsor, offering its combined team's decades of experience in complex transactions, valuation, capital allocation, and SPAC investing expertise to create value for shareholders through successful business combinations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe the company USAR:
  1. It's like a **specialized private equity firm** (such as KKR or Blackstone) that raises money with the specific goal of buying just one private company to take it public.
  2. Think of it as a **'blank check' investment fund** (similar to a venture capital fund like Sequoia Capital) solely designed to acquire a single private business and bring it to the public stock market.
  3. It's a publicly traded **'shell' company** (like a placeholder for future acquisitions, similar to a publicly listed holding company) that's ready to merge with a private business to quickly make that business public.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Facilitating Business Combinations: USAR operates as a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) formed to acquire or merge with an existing private operating business, bringing it public.

AI Analysis | Feedback

USA Rare Earth (USAR) is a blank check company, also known as a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC). As described, it was incorporated for the purpose of effecting a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, or similar business combination with one or more businesses. It has not yet selected any specific business combination target and has not engaged in substantive discussions with any target.

Therefore, USA Rare Earth (USAR) does not currently have any major customers because it is not yet operating an active business that sells products or services. Its primary function at this stage is to identify and acquire a private operating company.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Barbara Humpton, Chief Executive Officer

Barbara Humpton was appointed Chief Executive Officer of USA Rare Earth, Inc., effective October 1, 2025, with a focus on securing the supply chain of rare earth elements from mining to magnet-making. Prior to joining USA Rare Earth, she served as president and CEO of Siemens USA from 2018 through 2025, leading operations across electrification, automation, and digitalization. She also held the position of President and CEO of Siemens Government Technologies. Her earlier career included senior vice president roles at Booz Allen Hamilton and Lockheed Martin Corporation, where she managed programs related to homeland security, biometrics, border and transportation security, and critical infrastructure protection. Humpton is a graduate of Wake Forest University with a bachelor's degree in mathematics. She currently chairs the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), is Vice Chair of Chief Executives for Corporate Purpose (CECP), and serves on the board of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

W. Robert “Rob” Steele, Chief Financial Officer

W. Robert “Rob” Steele was appointed Chief Financial Officer of USA Rare Earth, effective March 24, 2025. He brings over 30 years of experience in finance and investment banking, with a strong background in working with high-growth, disruptive companies. Throughout his career in both private and public markets, Steele has led over $28 billion in capital raises and M&A transactions. Before joining USA Rare Earth, he served as Global Chief Financial Officer at Mujin Corp., an industrial robotics software company. Prior to that, Steele was a Managing Director at Bank of America Securities, where he was responsible for public and private equity, debt, and M&A transactions. He began his career as an accountant at Ernst & Young in audit and litigation consulting. Steele holds an MBA from UCLA Anderson School of Management and a BA in Business Economics from UC Santa Barbara.

Valerie Ford Jacob, Chief Legal Officer

Valerie Ford Jacob was appointed Chief Legal Officer of USA Rare Earth, effective March 9, 2026, where she oversees all legal, regulatory, compliance, and corporate policy matters. She joined the company from Freshfields US LLP, where she served as a partner and co-head of both the Financial Institutions Group and Global Capital Markets for 10 years. Previously, Jacob was Chairperson and Senior Partner at Fried, Frank, Harris, Shriver & Jacobson LLP. She holds a B.S. from Boston University and a J.D. from Cornell Law School. Jacob is also a member of The Committee of 200 (C200), an organization for leading women executives.

Gregory Bowman, Chief Global Policy Officer and Head of External Relations

Gregory Bowman was appointed Chief Global Policy Officer and Head of External Relations for USA Rare Earth, effective March 9, 2026, where he leads public policy, corporate affairs, government relations, and strategic communications. He brings decades of experience in national security policy, legislation, global strategy, and complex infrastructure programs. Prior to joining USA Rare Earth, Bowman held senior leadership roles at Siemens Government Technologies, including Chief Corporate Strategy Officer and Senior Vice President of National Security Solutions. He also spent over 25 years in senior leadership and legal roles in the U.S. Army. Bowman holds a J.D. from the University of Virginia School of Law, a master's degree from the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, and an LL.M. from the Judge Advocate General’s Legal Center and School. He previously served on the U.S. Army Science Board and the U.S. Department of Defense Business Board.

J.B. Lowe, Vice President, Head of Investor Relations

J.B. Lowe was appointed Vice President, Head of Investor Relations for USA Rare Earth, effective March 9, 2026. In this role, he leads strategic engagement with the financial community and serves as the primary liaison between USA Rare Earth's leadership, analysts, and global shareholders. Lowe brings more than 15 years of capital markets experience from both the buy- and sell-side. Most recently, he served as Head of Investor Relations at SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. Before that, he worked as an equity research analyst at Citi, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and TD Cowen, covering the oil and gas and cleantech sectors. Lowe holds a B.A. in political science from Duke University.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Intensified Competition for Acquisition Targets: The market for identifying and acquiring high-growth private companies is highly competitive, with numerous other SPACs, traditional IPOs, direct listings, and private equity firms vying for the same attractive businesses. This proliferation of competitors and alternative funding mechanisms can make it increasingly difficult for USAR to secure a desirable merger partner on favorable terms.
  • Increased Regulatory Scrutiny and Compliance Burdens: The SPAC industry has faced heightened scrutiny from regulatory bodies, particularly the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This evolving regulatory landscape can lead to more stringent rules, increased compliance costs, and potential delays in the de-SPAC process, making the SPAC structure less appealing to both investors and target companies.
  • Elevated Investor Redemption Rates and Capital Uncertainty: A cooling SPAC market and general investor skepticism, often fueled by the post-merger performance of previously de-SPACed companies, can lead to higher redemption rates. If a significant number of investors choose to redeem their shares prior to a business combination, it reduces the capital available to complete an acquisition, potentially jeopardizing deals or forcing the SPAC to seek additional, potentially dilutive, financing.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Share Issuance

  • In January 2026, USA Rare Earth completed a $1.5 billion private placement (PIPE) by issuing 69,767,442 shares of common stock at $21.50 per share to Inflection Point and other investors.
  • In January 2026, the company agreed to issue 16.1 million common shares and approximately 17.6 million warrants to the U.S. Department of Commerce as part of a $1.6 billion funding package.
  • In March 2026, USA Rare Earth agreed to issue approximately 3.8 million shares of common stock, valued at over $73 million, to acquire Texas Mineral Resources Corporation, securing full control of the Round Top Project.

Inbound Investments

  • In January 2026, USA Rare Earth entered into a non-binding letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce for a $1.6 billion funding package, comprising $277 million in federal funding and $1.3 billion in a senior secured loan, resulting in the U.S. government taking a 10% equity stake.
  • In January 2026, the company closed a $1.5 billion PIPE transaction with Inflection Point and other strategic investors.
  • In March 2025, USA Rare Earth completed its business combination with an additional $8 million upsize to the PIPE, bringing the total pre-funded PIPE investment to nearly $50 million from affiliates of Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. II and other investors.

Outbound Investments

  • In March 2026, USA Rare Earth made an all-stock acquisition of Texas Mineral Resources Corporation, valued at over $73 million for 3,823,328 shares of common stock, to gain 100% control of the Round Top rare earth and critical minerals project.
  • In November 2025, the company acquired Less Common Metals Ltd. (LCM), a UK-based producer of rare earth metals and alloys, for $100 million in cash and 6.54 million shares.

Capital Expenditures

  • USA Rare Earth plans to use the $3.1 billion in capital raised in January 2026 to accelerate the build-out of its mine-to-magnet value chain, focusing on the development and expansion of mining, processing, metal-making, and magnet manufacturing capabilities.
  • The company is expanding its magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma, which is expected to be operational in early 2026 with an initial production capacity of 600 metric tons per annum (tpa), planned to scale up to 4,800 tpa.
  • USA Rare Earth is developing the Round Top rare earth and critical minerals project in Texas, with projections to extract 40,000 metric tons per day of feedstock and process 8,000 tpa of materials by 2030, while also aiming to reshore 10,000 tpa of heavy rare earth metal- and alloy-making capacity.

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

USARMPUUUUNBMTRNMedian
NameUSA Rare.MP Mater.Energy F.NioCorp .Materion  
Mkt Price19.3351.1114.145.36290.0519.33
Mkt Cap3.89.13.50.76.03.8
Rev LTM730510602,098106
Op Inc LTM-87-104-83-34133-83
FCF LTM-130-505-120-3632-120
FCF 3Y Avg--313-94-2029-57
CFO LTM-57-84-62-17108-57
CFO 3Y Avg--47-54-13112-30

Growth & Margins

USARMPUUUUNBMTRNMedian
NameUSA Rare.MP Mater.Energy F.NioCorp .Materion  
Rev Chg LTM-26.1%62.5%-21.6%26.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.9%53.1%-7.7%7.7%
Rev Chg Q-89.0%496.1%-42.2%89.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM346.8%20.1%24.6%-9.5%22.4%
Op Inc Chg LTM-345.1%33.9%3.1%-269.3%-5.9%-5.9%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg--56.2%-65.2%-57.4%-1.4%-56.8%
Op Mgn LTM-1,188.6%-34.1%-78.6%-6.4%-56.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--56.4%-89.0%-7.3%-56.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2,433.0%16.9%26.8%-0.2%21.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-778.0%-27.5%-59.1%-5.2%-43.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--17.6%-73.6%-6.2%-17.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-1,771.7%-165.2%-113.9%-1.5%-139.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--128.0%-131.6%-1.5%-128.0%

Valuation

USARMPUUUUNBMTRNMedian
NameUSA Rare.MP Mater.Energy F.NioCorp .Materion  
Mkt Cap3.89.13.50.76.03.8
P/S517.429.933.3-2.931.6
P/Op Inc-43.5-87.7-42.4-20.945.3-42.4
P/EBIT-9.1-172.5-37.3-13.047.4-13.0
P/E-9.1-150.4-43.1-13.667.0-13.6
P/CFO-66.5-108.6-56.4-42.555.8-56.4
Total Yield-11.0%-0.7%-2.3%-7.4%1.7%-2.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--6.7%-5.7%-11.9%1.4%-6.2%
D/E0.00.10.20.00.10.1
Net D/E-0.5-0.1-0.1-0.60.1-0.1

Returns

USARMPUUUUNBMTRNMedian
NameUSA Rare.MP Mater.Energy F.NioCorp .Materion  
1M Rtn4.8%-3.6%7.6%14.8%16.8%7.6%
3M Rtn-28.3%-24.2%-33.9%-12.0%45.6%-24.2%
6M Rtn-11.5%-16.6%-33.4%-10.1%91.9%-11.5%
12M Rtn28.5%-28.1%47.3%26.4%166.8%28.5%
3Y Rtn64,765.8%125.0%122.3%24.4%178.5%125.0%
1M Excs Rtn-0.4%-4.0%2.0%14.4%10.1%2.0%
3M Excs Rtn-32.5%-31.8%-45.2%-16.2%46.2%-31.8%
6M Excs Rtn-20.3%-23.7%-41.9%-20.7%85.1%-20.7%
12M Excs Rtn21.5%-46.6%23.8%10.7%144.6%21.5%
3Y Excs Rtn64,693.9%58.8%61.1%-52.0%100.7%61.1%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil202520232022
Vertically integrated, domestic rare earth element magnet production supply chain200
Total200


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil2025
Vertically integrated, domestic rare earth element magnet production supply chain-299
Total-299


Assets by Segment
$ Mil202420232022
Vertically integrated, domestic rare earth element magnet production supply chain05767
Total05767


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$19.33 
Market Cap ($ Bil)3.8 
First Trading Date07/17/2023 
Distance from 52W High-50.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$19.82$14.54
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-2.4%33.0%
 3M1YR
Volatility98.7%116.2%
Downside Capture664.62492.54
Upside Capture400.66412.16
Correlation (SPY)64.2%39.7%
USAR Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta4.694.044.464.053.27176.32
Up Beta7.815.395.104.042.83419.07
Down Beta2.092.371.392.681.65-0.14
Up Capture182%262%498%799%1895%58262%
Bmk +ve Days11223567138427
Stock +ve Days9172657116157
Down Capture614%421%435%268%190%106%
Bmk -ve Days11212859114326
Stock -ve Days13263769136189

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with USAR
USAR43.9%116.5%0.84-
Sector ETF (XLB)22.6%17.8%0.9928.5%
Equity (SPY)23.3%12.8%1.3639.8%
Gold (GLD)28.5%28.4%0.8729.5%
Commodities (DBC)32.9%19.8%1.32-0.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)14.2%13.8%0.722.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-44.2%42.9%-1.2326.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with USAR
USAR2.7%136.6%0.70-
Sector ETF (XLB)6.7%19.1%0.248.3%
Equity (SPY)13.5%17.2%0.619.3%
Gold (GLD)18.6%18.6%0.8120.2%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%19.6%0.31-7.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.3%18.9%0.02-4.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)8.8%53.0%0.3510.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with USAR
USAR1.3%136.6%0.70-
Sector ETF (XLB)10.1%20.7%0.438.3%
Equity (SPY)15.4%17.9%0.739.3%
Gold (GLD)12.1%16.2%0.6120.2%
Commodities (DBC)7.4%18.0%0.33-7.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.8%20.7%0.20-4.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.2%66.2%0.9810.7%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date7152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity28.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 63020264.3%
Average Daily Volume9.8 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.9 days
Basic Shares Quantity196.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares14.7%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 8/7/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/13/2026-2.3%-11.2%-13.5%
1/26/20267.9%-9.5%-17.7%
11/6/20259.7%-6.1%10.7%
8/11/202523.3%1.7%-10.2%
5/14/20256.4%3.6%48.9%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive422
# Negative133
Median Positive8.8%2.6%29.8%
Median Negative-2.3%-9.5%-13.5%
Max Positive23.3%3.6%48.9%
Max Negative-2.3%-11.2%-17.7%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/13/2026-2.3%-11.2%-13.5%
1/26/20267.9%-9.5%-17.7%
11/6/20259.7%-6.1%10.7%
8/11/202523.3%1.7%-10.2%
5/14/20256.4%3.6%48.9%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive422
# Negative133
Median Positive8.8%2.6%29.8%
Median Negative-2.3%-9.5%-13.5%
Max Positive23.3%3.6%48.9%
Max Negative-2.3%-11.2%-17.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/14/202610-Q
12/31/202503/30/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/11/202510-Q
03/31/202505/15/202510-Q
12/31/202403/31/202510-K
09/30/202401/06/2025S-4/A
06/30/202411/12/2024S-4
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/14/202610-Q
12/31/202503/30/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/11/202510-Q
03/31/202505/15/202510-Q
12/31/202403/31/202510-K
09/30/202401/06/2025S-4/A
06/30/202411/12/2024S-4

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/27/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/13/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2026 Stillwater Facility Magnet Manufacturing Capacity 600    
Q4 2026 LCM Metal Making and Alloy Capacity 3,000    
2026 U.S. Government Funding 1.60 Bil    

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/26/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2030 Round Top Feedstock Extraction 40,000    
2030 MREC and HREE Processing Capacity 8,000    
2030 Heavy Rare Earth Metal and Alloy-Making Capacity 10,000    
2030 NdFeB Magnet-Making Capacity 10,000    
2030 Swarf Processing Capacity 2,000    

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Commercial Scale Production Commissioning      
Q1 2026 Swarf Recycling Pilot-Scale Testing      
2026 Pre-Feasibility Study Completion      
2026 Neo Magnet Delivery      

Insider Activity

Updated 7/20/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Trabuco, Carolyn DirectSell608202622.7713,000295,984427,651Form
2Trabuco, Carolyn DirectBuy129202622.601,30029,37929,379Form
3Blitzer, MichaelDirectBuy129202621.44100,0002,143,86018,169,214Form
4Blitzer, MichaelInflection Point Fund I, LPSell815202515.752,091,849  Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Trabuco, Carolyn DirectSell608202622.7713,000295,984427,651Form
2Trabuco, Carolyn DirectBuy129202622.601,30029,37929,379Form
3Blitzer, MichaelDirectBuy129202621.44100,0002,143,86018,169,214Form
4Blitzer, MichaelInflection Point Fund I, LPSell815202515.752,091,849  Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Aug 8, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania$73.5 Mil24.8%4New13F
Newtyn Management, LLC$35.4 Mil3.8%33New13F
UNICOM Systems, Inc.$7.0 Mil0.7%32New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania$73.5 Mil24.8%4New13F
Newtyn Management, LLC$35.4 Mil3.8%33New13F
UNICOM Systems, Inc.$7.0 Mil0.7%32New13F
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania$73.5 Mil24.8%4New13F
Newtyn Management, LLC$35.4 Mil3.8%33New13F
UNICOM Systems, Inc.$7.0 Mil0.7%32New13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 8/7/2026