Tronox (TROX)
Market Price (5/16/2026): $8.15 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Commodity Chemicals
Tronox (TROX)
Market Price (5/16/2026): $8.15Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Commodity Chemicals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.4% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, and Resource Efficiency Solutions. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -95%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -73 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.5% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 263% Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 53x Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 140% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.8% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.4% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 90% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -36% Key risksTROX key risks include [1] a substantial debt load that limits its financial flexibility and [2] securities class action lawsuits alleging the company issued misleading financial projections. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, and Resource Efficiency Solutions. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -95%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -73 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.5% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 263% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 53x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 140% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.8% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.4% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 90% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -36% |
| Key risksTROX key risks include [1] a substantial debt load that limits its financial flexibility and [2] securities class action lawsuits alleging the company issued misleading financial projections. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Tronox (TROX) stock has gained about 35% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Stronger-than-Expected Q4 2025 Performance and Positive Free Cash Flow Guidance.
Tronox reported better-than-anticipated fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 18, 2026, with revenue of $730 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $684.28 million. Crucially, the company generated $53 million in positive free cash flow for Q4 2025, significantly exceeding its guidance. Management further projected positive free cash flow for the full year 2026, signaling a potential financial turnaround and boosting investor confidence.
2. Strategic Restructuring and Cost Reduction Initiatives.
On January 26, 2026, Tronox announced the permanent closure of its titanium dioxide (TiO2) plant in Fuzhou, China. This strategic move was anticipated to generate annual cost savings exceeding $15 million, addressing weak regional demand and rising production costs. The company also highlighted a broader cost improvement program aiming to deliver $125 million to $175 million in run-rate savings by the end of 2026.
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1. Stronger-than-Expected Q4 2025 Performance and Positive Free Cash Flow Guidance.
Tronox reported better-than-anticipated fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 18, 2026, with revenue of $730 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $684.28 million. Crucially, the company generated $53 million in positive free cash flow for Q4 2025, significantly exceeding its guidance. Management further projected positive free cash flow for the full year 2026, signaling a potential financial turnaround and boosting investor confidence.
2. Strategic Restructuring and Cost Reduction Initiatives.
On January 26, 2026, Tronox announced the permanent closure of its titanium dioxide (TiO2) plant in Fuzhou, China. This strategic move was anticipated to generate annual cost savings exceeding $15 million, addressing weak regional demand and rising production costs. The company also highlighted a broader cost improvement program aiming to deliver $125 million to $175 million in run-rate savings by the end of 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.6% change in TROX stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.98 | 7.99 | 33.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,844 | 2,920 | 2.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.4 | 30.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 159 | 159 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TROX | 33.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.1% | 25.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 2.5% | 61.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 134.7% change in TROX stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 137.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.40 | 7.99 | 134.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,949 | 2,920 | -1.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.4 | 137.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 159 | 159 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 134.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TROX | 134.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.0% | 33.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 18.6% | 56.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 57.9% change in TROX stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 67.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.06 | 7.99 | 57.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,074 | 2,920 | -5.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.4 | 67.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 158 | 159 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 57.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TROX | 57.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 34.8% | 33.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 22.3% | 55.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.3% change in TROX stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.79 | 7.99 | -32.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,197 | 2,920 | -8.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.6 | 0.4 | -24.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 155 | 159 | -2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -32.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TROX | -32.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.7% | 42.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 32.5% | 58.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TROX Return | 67% | -41% | 7% | -26% | -56% | 107% | -28% |
| Peers Return | 29% | -20% | 5% | -22% | -40% | 74% | -11% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TROX Win Rate | 67% | 17% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 47% | 44% | 36% | 31% | 80% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TROX Max Drawdown | -29% | -56% | -40% | -50% | -70% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -47% | -37% | -36% | -55% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CC, KRO, HUN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TROX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 308 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 281 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -45.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Tronox's stock fell -43.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 75.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | TROX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 308 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 281 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -45.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -64.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 180.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 242 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -88.9% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 803.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 659 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 149 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Tronox's stock fell -43.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 75.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Tronox (TROX)
Tronox Holdings plc operates as a vertically integrated manufacturer of TiO2 pigment in North America, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates titanium-bearing mineral sand mines; and engages in beneficiation and smelting operations. It offers TiO2 pigment; ultrafine specialty TiO2; zircon; feedstock; pig iron; titanium tetrachloride; and other products. The company's products are used for the manufacture of paints, coatings, plastics, and paper, as well as various other applications. Tronox Holdings plc is based in Stamford, Connecticut.
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Tronox (TROX) analogies:
- The 'Intel Inside' for paints, plastics, and paper, supplying the essential white pigment.
- Similar to how ADM or Cargill process agricultural commodities into essential food ingredients, Tronox mines titanium minerals and processes them into the foundational white pigment for industrial uses like paints and plastics.
- A specialized industrial chemicals and materials producer, like a focused segment of Dow Chemical or BASF, but dedicated primarily to titanium dioxide pigment for a wide range of products including paints, plastics, and paper.
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- TiO2 Pigment: A white pigment used extensively in paints, coatings, plastics, and paper for its opacity and brightness.
- Ultrafine Specialty TiO2: A specialized form of titanium dioxide used in specific applications requiring very fine particle size.
- Zircon: A valuable mineral primarily used in ceramics, refractories, and foundry applications.
- Feedstock: Raw materials, typically titanium-bearing mineral sands, essential for the production of titanium dioxide.
- Pig Iron: An intermediate product of iron, often a co-product derived from the smelting of titanium minerals.
- Titanium Tetrachloride: An intermediate chemical compound used in the manufacturing processes for titanium dioxide and titanium metal.
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```htmlTronox (TROX) operates as a business-to-business (B2B) company, supplying raw materials such as TiO2 pigment, zircon, and other products used in the manufacturing processes of other companies. According to Tronox's public filings, the company serves a diverse global customer base and does not have any single customer that accounts for 10% or more of its consolidated net sales in recent years. Therefore, specific "major customers" are not individually disclosed.
Based on the description of where Tronox's products are used ("paints, coatings, plastics, and paper, as well as various other applications"), its customers are typically large manufacturers in the following industries:
-
Paints and Coatings Manufacturers: Companies that produce architectural, industrial, and specialty paints and coatings are significant users of TiO2 pigment for whiteness, opacity, and durability.
Examples of public companies in this sector that would be potential customers include:- Sherwin-Williams (NYSE: SHW)
- PPG Industries (NYSE: PPG)
- Akzo Nobel (Euronext Amsterdam: AKZO.AS)
-
Plastics Manufacturers: TiO2 pigment is widely used in plastics for whitening, opacity, and UV resistance in various applications, from packaging to automotive parts.
Examples of public companies operating in the broader chemicals and plastics manufacturing sector that would be potential customers include:- Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW)
- LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE: LYB)
-
Paper Manufacturers: TiO2 is used in paper production to improve brightness, opacity, and print quality. Zircon is used in specialty paper applications.
Examples of public companies in this sector that would be potential customers include:- International Paper (NYSE: IP)
- WestRock (NASDAQ: WRK)
- Other Specialty Manufacturers: Tronox's products also cater to manufacturers of ceramics, inks, rubber, and various other industrial applications that require high-performance pigments and materials.
While the companies listed above are prominent players in the industries Tronox serves, it is important to note that these are examples of the *types* of customers Tronox supplies, rather than a definitive list of its specific major customers, which are not individually identified by Tronox in its public disclosures.
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John D. Romano, Chief Executive OfficerMr. Romano was appointed Chief Executive Officer in April 2024, after serving as Co-CEO since March 2021. He has been with Tronox and its predecessors since 1988, holding senior roles across sales, marketing, pigment operations, and commercial strategy. His previous positions include Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial and Strategy Officer, and Senior Vice President and President of the Company's Pigment and Electrolytic operations. Mr. Romano holds a Bachelor's degree in Accounting from Oklahoma State University.
John Srivisal, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial OfficerMr. Srivisal was appointed Chief Financial Officer in April 2023. He joined Tronox in March 2018 to lead the company's business development efforts, which included closing the transformative acquisition of the Cristal TiO2 business. In May 2020, he also assumed responsibility for the company's financial planning and analysis activities. Mr. Srivisal has over two decades of finance experience as an investment banker and senior corporate executive, working across various industries on capital markets and mergers and acquisition transactions. He graduated magna cum laude with a Bachelor of Science degree in economics (with a concentration in finance) and a minor in mathematics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Jean-François Turgeon, Director (former Co-Chief Executive Officer)Mr. Turgeon served as co-Chief Executive Officer of Tronox from March 2021 to April 2024. Prior to that, he held the roles of Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. He joined Tronox in January 2014 to integrate the mineral sands and pigment business. Before joining Tronox, Mr. Turgeon spent more than 24 years at the Rio Tinto Group, where he rose to become Managing Director of its iron and titanium division, overseeing international TiO2 operations. He also served as chairman of the advisory board of UMCC Titanium. Mr. Turgeon holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Chemical Engineering from Université Laval and a Master's degree in Hydrometallurgy from McGill University.
Jeff Engle, Chief Commercial OfficerMr. Engle joined Tronox in July 2001 as an engineer in the technical sales and service laboratory. Over his more than 20 years with the company, he has worked in various areas, including sales and marketing, and research.
Jeffrey Neuman, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate SecretaryMr. Neuman joined Tronox in April 2018. His previous experience includes serving as vice president, corporate secretary and deputy general counsel of Honeywell International Inc.
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The key risks to Tronox Holdings plc (TROX) include:
- Market Volatility, Price Sensitivity, and Global Demand: The titanium dioxide (TiO2) industry, in which Tronox operates, is highly cyclical and extremely sensitive to global economic conditions, particularly affecting demand in key markets such as construction and automotive industries. Weak demand and oversupply, notably from China, consistently lead to pricing pressure and reduced sales volumes, directly impacting Tronox's profitability. Tronox experienced a decline in revenue in 2025 due to lower sales volumes and average selling prices for its TiO2 and zircon products. The company recently announced the permanent closure of its TiO2 plant in Fuzhou, China, citing weak domestic demand, escalating operational costs, and persistent excess Chinese TiO2 production as primary reasons.
- High Leverage and Financial Health Concerns: Tronox carries a substantial debt load. As of December 31, 2025, the company's total debt amounted to $3.2 billion, with a net debt to trailing-twelve-month Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 9.0x. This high leverage ratio can significantly constrain Tronox's financial flexibility and poses a considerable risk, particularly during prolonged periods of reduced earnings or market downturns. The company's financial health grades highlight concerns, including a high debt-to-equity ratio and ongoing cash burn.
- Operational Risks and Cost Pressures: Tronox faces ongoing challenges related to the volatility of energy and raw material costs, which are susceptible to global supply and demand fluctuations. Disruptions in energy supply, particularly in regions like South Africa where Tronox has operations, could lead to increased production costs or operational interruptions. Additionally, the company has contended with profitability pressures stemming from high-cost inventories. Fluctuations in currency exchange rates also contribute to higher costs for raw materials and logistics, thereby affecting Tronox's competitive position.
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Tronox Holdings plc operates in several addressable markets with its main products, including TiO2 pigment, zircon, feedstock, and pig iron.
TiO2 Pigment
- Global: The global titanium dioxide (TiO2) pigment market was valued at approximately USD 24.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 41.73 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% from 2026 to 2033. Another estimate places the global market size at USD 16.2 billion in 2024, growing to USD 17.1 billion in 2025, and expected to reach USD 29.4 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 5.57% from 2025 to 2035.
- North America: The North American titanium dioxide market was valued at USD 5.97 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach USD 10.01 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.92% from 2025 to 2033.
- Europe: The European titanium dioxide market was valued at USD 4.70 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 10.96 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 9.86% from 2025 to 2033.
- Asia Pacific: The Asia Pacific titanium dioxide market was valued at USD 4.17 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 15.37 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 15.6% during the forecast period. The region dominated the global market with a market share of 47% in 2025, valued at USD 8.96 billion in 2025 and USD 9.69 billion in 2026.
Zircon
- Global: The global zircon and derivative market size was valued at USD 2,763.28 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 6,677.46 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 10.3% from 2025 to 2033. Global zircon production reached approximately 1.3 million metric tons in 2024. Another estimate places the global zircon market size at USD 2.1 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 3.3 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 5.2% from 2025 to 2033.
- North America: North America consumed approximately 185,000 metric tons of zircon in 2024.
- Europe: The zircon market in Europe had a market size of approximately USD 370 million in 2024.
- Asia Pacific: The Asia Pacific region dominates the global zircon market, accounting for over 45% of total consumption in 2024, with a market value of approximately USD 945 million. The region also led consumption by volume, representing over 62% of the global market share in 2024.
Feedstock (Titanium Feedstock)
- Global: The global titanium feedstock market size was valued at approximately USD 4.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 7.6 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.2%. Global titanium feedstock production generated revenue of USD 5.3 billion in 2024. TiO2 pigment production accounts for almost 90% of global titanium feedstock consumption.
Pig Iron
- Global: The global pig iron market size is anticipated to be valued at USD 642,335.3 million in 2025, with a projected growth to USD 777,198.9 million by 2034 at a CAGR of 2.14%. The global merchant pig iron market was worth USD 47.18 billion in 2024 and is expected to surpass USD 116.54 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 8.7% from 2025 to 2034.
- North America: North America holds approximately 9% of the global pig iron market share, with consumption exceeding 14 million metric tons.
- Asia Pacific: Asia-Pacific dominates the pig iron market with approximately a 68% share, producing over 870 million metric tons annually.
Ultrafine Specialty TiO2
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Titanium Tetrachloride
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Tronox (TROX)
Over the next 2-3 years, Tronox Holdings plc (TROX) is expected to drive revenue growth through several key initiatives and market dynamics:
- Improving TiO2 and Zircon Pricing and Volumes: The company anticipates an improvement in both pricing and sales volumes for its core titanium dioxide (TiO2) and zircon products. TiO2 pricing is expected to improve in Q1 2026, with zircon pricing projected to enhance in Q2 2026, which is expected to drive revenue growth. Tronox saw sequential EBITDA recovery in 2024 driven by higher pigment volumes and selective firmer pricing. Consensus-like analyst models for 2025 predict mid-single to high-single-digit revenue growth off 2024.
- Market Share Gains from Trade Protection Measures: Tronox is benefiting from definitive anti-dumping duties finalized in regions such as Brazil and Saudi Arabia. These measures are expected to improve market penetration and growth for its TiO2, leading to increased market share in protected regions, as demonstrated by higher volumes in Asia and India in Q4 2025.
- Expansion into New Geographic Markets and Higher-Value Specialty Products: The company is strategically focusing on commercial expansion in faster-growing regions like Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and parts of Latin America, where mid-single-digit TiO2 demand CAGR is anticipated through 2027-2028. Additionally, Tronox aims to increase its mix of specialty-grade products, such as those used in high-durability coatings and low-abrasion plastics, to capture higher margins.
- Strategic Investments in Vertical Integration and High-Grade Mining Assets: Tronox continues to invest in its vertically integrated business model, including mining projects like the East OFS mine, Fairbreeze extension, and Namakwa East OFS. These investments are designed to secure a consistent supply of higher-quality raw materials, enhance cost efficiencies, and provide a substantial competitive advantage in its value chain.
- Development of Rare Earths Opportunity: Tronox is advancing a strategy to capitalize on rare earth elements by utilizing monazite from its Australian and South African mining operations. This initiative aligns with the Western world's push to diversify supply chains and presents a new revenue stream, potentially driving future growth.
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Share Issuance
- In February 2026, Tronox filed an omnibus shelf registration for ordinary shares, preference shares, and debt securities, providing an option for future capital access.
- The number of issued and outstanding shares increased marginally from 157,938,056 at December 31, 2024, to 158,557,858 at December 31, 2025.
Inbound Investments
- In 2023, Tronox secured an incremental term loan of $350 million to bolster liquidity, primarily to support expansion projects for mines in South Africa nearing the end of their operational life.
Capital Expenditures
- In 2025, capital expenditures amounted to $341 million, with a significant portion (approximately 60%) directed towards maintenance and safety, and 40% allocated to mining extensions in South Africa to uphold the company's integrated cost advantage.
- Capital expenditures for 2024 were $370 million, including $135 million specifically for replacing mines reaching the end of their operational life in South Africa.
- For 2026, capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $260 million, a reduction from previous years as the heavy spending on major mining projects has largely concluded, with ongoing focus on asset maintenance, vertical integration, and rare earth projects.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| 7-Day Rally Sends Tronox Stock Up 39% | 04/01/2026 | |
| Tronox Stock (-10%): Geopolitical Tensions Spark Risk-Off Sell-Off | 03/07/2026 | |
| Tronox Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Tronox Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Tronox (TROX) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/09/2025 | |
| Tronox (TROX) EBITDA Comparison | 08/09/2025 | |
| Tronox (TROX) Operating Income Comparison | 08/09/2025 | |
| Tronox (TROX) Debt Comparison | 08/09/2025 | |
| Tronox (TROX) Net Income Comparison | 08/09/2025 | |
| Tronox (TROX) Revenue Comparison | 08/09/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Tronox Stock On Fire: Up 39% With 7-Day Winning Streak | 04/01/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to TROX.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.7% |
| 03272026 | IFF | International Flavors & Fragrances | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.1% | -1.1% | -3.0% |
| 03132026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -18.3% | -18.3% | -18.3% |
| 03062026 | ARIS | Aris Mining | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.4% | -7.4% | -16.7% |
| 04302022 | TROX | Tronox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -30.8% | -17.0% | -34.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 10.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 4,334 |
| Op Inc LTM | -63 |
| FCF LTM | 20 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -54 |
| CFO LTM | 107 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 137 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -125.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -25.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/Op Inc | -14.5 |
| P/EBIT | -23.3 |
| P/E | -7.1 |
| P/CFO | 14.6 |
| Total Yield | -13.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.2% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 78.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 38.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -11.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 67.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -95.3% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $7.99 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/01/2010 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $8.74 | $5.64 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -8.6% | 41.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 84.3% | 90.5% |
| Downside Capture | 275.98 | 259.40 |
| Upside Capture | 203.77 | 243.60 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 21.6% | 31.1% |
TROX Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.33 | 1.05 | 1.33 | 2.08 | 2.33 | 1.86 |
| Up Beta | 0.61 | -0.40 | 0.50 | 1.94 | 2.80 | 1.95 |
| Down Beta | 0.28 | 2.58 | 2.99 | 2.98 | 2.54 | 1.66 |
| Up Capture | 40% | 224% | 245% | 510% | 422% | 672% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 36 | 65 | 128 | 364 |
| Down Capture | -322% | 49% | 32% | 71% | 158% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 58 | 118 | 375 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TROX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROX | 53.9% | 90.4% | 0.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 20.3% | 16.7% | 0.94 | 53.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.4% | 12.1% | 1.71 | 31.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.5% | 26.8% | 1.30 | 14.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.4% | 18.5% | 1.88 | 4.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.5% | 13.5% | 0.56 | 28.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.4% | 41.7% | -0.47 | 21.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TROX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROX | -15.8% | 60.5% | -0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 4.9% | 18.9% | 0.16 | 59.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 46.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.4% | 17.9% | 0.88 | 13.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.4% | 0.45 | 18.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 39.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.8% | 55.9% | 0.35 | 18.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TROX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROX | 5.2% | 64.6% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.3% | 20.6% | 0.44 | 60.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 49.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 8.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 17.9% | 0.38 | 26.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 39.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 12.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 4.8% | 2.0% | |
| 1/26/2026 | -0.8% | -2.8% | 10.9% |
| 11/6/2025 | -0.6% | 14.5% | 19.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -37.9% | -37.2% | -18.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | 1.5% | -9.2% | 7.5% |
| 2/13/2025 | -11.0% | -17.8% | -26.8% |
| 10/25/2024 | -7.7% | -9.8% | -7.6% |
| 8/2/2024 | -14.9% | -17.1% | -10.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 16 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 8.2% | 16.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -9.8% | -10.1% |
| Max Positive | 15.0% | 32.1% | 50.8% |
| Max Negative | -37.9% | -37.2% | -26.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 65.00 Mil | 75.00 Mil | 85.00 Mil | 25.0% | Raised | Guidance: 60.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Run-rate savings | 125.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 175.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 55.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 65.00 Mil | ||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Romano, John D | CEO and Director | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 6.59 | 101,600 | 669,635 | 9,713,273 | Form |
| 2 | Srivisal, John | SVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 6.59 | 19,461 | 128,297 | 1,843,771 | Form |
| 3 | Turgeon, Jean Francois | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 6.60 | 18,563 | 122,488 | 4,975,328 | Form | |
| 4 | Neuman, Jeffrey N | SVP, General Counsel & Sec. | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 6.59 | 22,965 | 151,443 | 1,640,916 | Form |
| 5 | Engle, Jeffrey A | SVP, Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 6.60 | 14,575 | 96,137 | 1,155,956 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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