Tronox (TROX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.89 | Market Cap: $617.0 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Commodity Chemicals
Tronox (TROX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.89Market Cap: $617.0 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Commodity Chemicals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -39% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -140% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 505% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 9.3% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, and Resource Efficiency Solutions. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% | |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -46% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -39% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 9.3% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, and Resource Efficiency Solutions. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -140% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 505% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -46% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TROX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Tronox's stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Tronox reported a revenue of $699 million for the third quarter of 2025, marking a 13% decrease year-over-year and a 4% sequential decline. The company also posted a net loss of $99 million attributable to Tronox, which included $27 million in restructuring charges. Adjusted EBITDA significantly decreased by 48% to $74 million, resulting in an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.6%.
2. Missed Analyst Expectations for Q3 2025: The company's adjusted diluted loss per share was $0.46, substantially missing analyst estimates of -$0.21 by 119.05%. Additionally, the reported revenue of $699 million fell short of analyst projections, which were approximately $776.21 million. This shortfall in financial performance contributed to investor concerns.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TROX Return | 33% | 67% | -41% | 7% | -26% | -59% | -57% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 22% | -7% | 30% | 9% | -22% | 42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TROX Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 17% | 50% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 50% | 50% | 52% | 50% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TROX Max Drawdown | -64% | -2% | -53% | -24% | -28% | -69% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -55% | -12% | -23% | -6% | -22% | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MEOH, NOVS, DOW, HWKN, HUN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TROX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 157.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -66.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 200.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 236 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -75.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 302.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to MEOH, NOVS, DOW, HWKN, HUN
In The Past
Tronox's stock fell -61.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/25/2021. A -61.2% loss requires a 157.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TROX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
| 04302022 | TROX | Tronox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -30.8% | -17.0% | -34.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
| 04302022 | TROX | Tronox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -30.8% | -17.0% | -34.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Tronox
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 23.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.8 |
| Rev LTM | 3,207 |
| Op Inc LTM | 91 |
| FCF LTM | 39 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 126 |
| CFO LTM | 244 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 332 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.8 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 5.7 |
| P/E | -2.0 |
| P/CFO | 10.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 9.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -41.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -44.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -55.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -115.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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