Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -39%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -105%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -132%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 505%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 9.3%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, and Resource Efficiency Solutions.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13%
3   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -46%
5   Key risks
TROX key risks include [1] a substantial debt load that limits its financial flexibility and [2] securities class action lawsuits alleging the company issued misleading financial projections.
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -39%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 9.3%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, and Resource Efficiency Solutions.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -105%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -132%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 505%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13%
8 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -46%
10 Key risks
TROX key risks include [1] a substantial debt load that limits its financial flexibility and [2] securities class action lawsuits alleging the company issued misleading financial projections.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TROX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, key developments that could influence Tronox (TROX) stock movement include strategic financing initiatives, an anticipated increase in sales volumes, and a focus on improving financial liquidity and cash flow. **1. Conditional Financing Support for Rare Earth Strategy.**

Tronox received conditional and non-binding support for potential financing of up to US$600 million from the Export-Import Bank of the United States and Export Finance Australia in December 2025 to advance its rare earth strategy. This indicates a significant long-term strategic development for the company. **2. Anticipated Increase in Q4 2025 Volumes.**

Despite a challenging third quarter in 2025 with decreased revenue and net loss, Tronox projected an increase in sales volumes for the fourth quarter of 2025, anticipating 3-5% growth in TiO2 and 15-20% growth in zircon volumes compared to the previous quarter. This outlook suggests an expected improvement in market demand. **3. Positive Free Cash Flow Outlook for Q4 2025 and 2026.**

The company expects to generate positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2025 and continuing into 2026. This is a positive indicator for financial stability and operational efficiency. **4. Strategic Cost Management and Liquidity Enhancement.**

Tronox implemented cost improvement programs and engaged in strategic actions, including the temporary idling of certain operations, to safeguard cash flow. Additionally, the company strengthened its balance sheet by raising $400 million in senior secured notes to enhance liquidity. **5. Q4 2025 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Guidance.**

Tronox anticipates its Q4 2025 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA to be relatively flat compared to Q3 2025. This outlook, while cautious, suggests a stabilization of financial performance following a challenging third quarter impacted by weaker demand and competitive pressures.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TROX Return33%67%-41%7%-26%-53%-51%
Peers Return24%29%-20%5%-22%-40%-37%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TROX Win Rate58%67%17%50%50%42% 
Peers Win Rate72%56%47%44%36%31% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TROX Max Drawdown-64%-2%-53%-24%-28%-69% 
Peers Max Drawdown-50%-7%-34%-21%-29%-51% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CC, KRO, HUN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTROXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven157.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-66.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven200.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven236 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-75.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven302.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to MEOH, NOVS, DOW, HWKN, HUN


In The Past

Tronox's stock fell -61.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/25/2021. A -61.2% loss requires a 157.5% gain to breakeven.

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About Tronox (TROX)

Better Bets than Tronox (TROX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TROX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.9%5.9%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.6%0.6%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
45.1%45.1%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.6%6.6%-2.5%
TROX_4302022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04302022TROXTronoxDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-30.8%-17.0%-34.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.9%5.9%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.6%0.6%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
45.1%45.1%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.6%6.6%-2.5%
TROX_4302022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04302022TROXTronoxDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-30.8%-17.0%-34.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Tronox

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TROXCCKROHUNMedian
NameTronox Chemours Kronos W.Huntsman  
Mkt Price4.4211.614.7110.087.39
Mkt Cap0.71.70.51.71.2
Rev LTM2,8445,8371,8645,7804,312
Op Inc LTM627255-2459
FCF LTM-369-12-65199-38
FCF 3Y Avg-118-251-20126-69
CFO LTM21265-40366143
CFO 3Y Avg221704332146

Growth & Margins

TROXCCKROHUNMedian
NameTronox Chemours Kronos W.Huntsman  
Rev Chg LTM-7.8%0.0%0.0%-3.5%-1.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-7.3%-5.8%-2.3%-11.5%-6.6%
Rev Chg Q-13.1%-0.9%-5.7%-5.2%-5.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.6%-0.2%-1.5%-1.4%-1.4%
Op Mgn LTM2.2%1.2%3.0%-0.4%1.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.2%1.8%1.1%1.2%1.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.4%-0.4%-2.8%-0.5%-1.4%
CFO/Rev LTM0.7%4.5%-2.2%6.3%2.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.5%1.2%0.1%5.5%3.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-13.0%-0.2%-3.5%3.4%-1.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-4.2%-4.3%-1.2%2.1%-2.7%

Valuation

TROXCCKROHUNMedian
NameTronox Chemours Kronos W.Huntsman  
Mkt Cap0.71.70.51.71.2
P/S0.20.40.40.30.3
P/EBIT-6.529.811.6-12.82.5
P/E-2.0-7.4-16.0-4.7-6.1
P/CFO30.49.0-16.44.26.6
Total Yield-41.6%-9.3%-6.3%-9.9%-9.6%
Dividend Yield9.3%4.2%0.0%11.3%6.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-19.1%-8.1%-4.0%5.7%-6.1%
D/E5.31.91.01.51.7
Net D/E5.11.60.91.21.4

Returns

TROXCCKROHUNMedian
NameTronox Chemours Kronos W.Huntsman  
1M Rtn41.7%3.2%4.9%23.3%14.1%
3M Rtn-9.7%-31.9%-21.0%-1.4%-15.4%
6M Rtn-17.1%6.9%-21.1%-0.5%-8.8%
12M Rtn-53.2%-33.8%-51.1%-41.9%-46.5%
3Y Rtn-61.9%-57.7%-40.9%-56.9%-57.3%
1M Excs Rtn40.9%2.5%4.2%22.6%13.4%
3M Excs Rtn-12.7%-34.6%-24.9%-2.6%-18.8%
6M Excs Rtn-29.5%-5.5%-33.5%-12.8%-21.2%
12M Excs Rtn-66.4%-47.8%-63.6%-54.5%-59.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-132.1%-125.7%-112.8%-126.3%-126.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Titanium dioxide (TiO2)2,2482,6932,7932,1762,049
Other products345323301  
Zircon257438478283290
Feedstock and other products   299303
Total2,8503,4543,5722,7582,642


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity19,208,060
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-8.8%
Average Daily Volume4,153,814
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.62
Basic Shares Quantity158,600,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-0.6%14.5%19.3%
7/31/2025-37.9%-37.2%-18.0%
5/1/20251.5%-9.2%7.5%
2/13/2025-11.0%-17.8%-26.8%
10/25/2024-7.7%-9.8%-7.6%
8/2/2024-14.9%-17.1%-10.1%
5/2/202412.2%12.3%16.7%
2/16/20245.5%11.6%27.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91112
# Negative151312
Median Positive4.6%10.2%18.0%
Median Negative-4.9%-9.8%-10.6%
Max Positive15.0%32.1%50.8%
Max Negative-37.9%-37.2%-26.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021