Tron (TRON)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $2.16 | Market Cap: $564.4 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Facilities
Tron (TRON)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $2.16Market Cap: $564.4 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Leisure Facilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Blockchain Enterprise Solutions, and Digital Payments. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -128% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -2.5 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -53% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.53 | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 120x | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 151% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.1% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 143% | ||
| Key risksTRON key risks include [1] regulatory scrutiny highlighted by SEC charges against its founder, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Blockchain Enterprise Solutions, and Digital Payments. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -128% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.53 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -2.5 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -53% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 120x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 151% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.1% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 143% |
| Key risksTRON key risks include [1] regulatory scrutiny highlighted by SEC charges against its founder, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. TRON expanded its AI Fund tenfold to $1 billion on March 25, 2026, demonstrating a significant strategic pivot towards building infrastructure for autonomous AI agents on its network. This substantial capital commitment aligns TRON with the burgeoning AI market, attracting increased investor interest in AI-driven blockchain solutions.
2. Resolution of regulatory pressure on Tron's founder, Justin Sun, and enhanced institutional acceptance boosted confidence. Reports in early March 2026 indicated a settlement with the U.S. SEC regarding legal disputes, which positively impacted institutional investor confidence and removed a valuation burden from TRX. Concurrently, on March 26, 2026, Anchorage Digital became the first federally chartered US firm to support TRON custody and staking, integrating TRON within a regulated financial framework.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.3% change in TRON stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 161.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.85 | 2.17 | 17.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4 | 5 | 6.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 45.7 | 119.6 | 161.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 110 | 261 | -57.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRON | 17.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 42.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -10.4% | 35.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -49.4% change in TRON stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -91.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.29 | 2.17 | -49.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4 | 5 | 12.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 21.9 | 119.6 | 446.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 261 | -91.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -49.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRON | -49.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 36.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -8.5% | 31.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRON | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 34.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.3% | 29.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRON | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 34.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 49.0% | 29.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TRON Return | - | - | - | - | -81% | 77% | -66% |
| Peers Return | 7% | -22% | 9% | 36% | -1% | -8% | 13% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TRON Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 33% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 38% | 46% | 57% | 42% | 27% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TRON Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -81% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -42% | -25% | -28% | -27% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FUN, CALY, AS, PLNT, LTH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
TRON has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to FUN, CALY, AS, PLNT, LTH
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.
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About Tron (TRON)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Analogy 1: Think of it as a publicly traded 'blank check' investment fund, whose only purpose is to acquire a private company and take it public.
Analogy 2: Like a publicly traded 'IPO vehicle' or 'fast track' for a private company to debut on the stock market.
Analogy 3: Essentially a publicly traded 'shell company' that's been pre-funded by investors, waiting to find a suitable private company to merge with and bring to the public market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
As a blank check company, Corner Growth Acquisition Corp. 2 (symbol: TRON) does not have major customers in the traditional sense of selling products or services. Its primary purpose is to raise capital through an initial public offering (IPO) and then use that capital to acquire an existing private operating company.
Therefore, it does not generate revenue from the sale of goods or services to other companies or individuals, and consequently, it does not have customer categories to list.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Here is the management team for Corner Growth Acquisition Corp. 2:Xixuan Hei, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer
Xixuan Hei, 31, has a background in finance, digital innovation, and legal-tech solutions. She founded Herr Gallery, a WebVR NFT platform, and holds advanced degrees in finance and business intelligence.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Corner Growth Acquisition Corp. 2 (symbol: TRON):- Failure to Complete a Business Combination: As a blank check company, Corner Growth Acquisition Corp. 2's primary objective is to effect a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses. The company faces a significant risk if it fails to complete such a business combination within its stipulated timeframe, which could lead to its liquidation and the return of funds to shareholders, albeit without the potential for investment gains. The company has focused on completing a business combination by December 31, 2025, with failure resulting in cessation of operations and liquidation of the Trust Account to redeem public shares.
- Delisting from Nasdaq and Non-Compliance with Listing Requirements: Corner Growth Acquisition Corp. 2 has encountered difficulties in maintaining compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements. These issues have included the minimum public holders and publicly held shares requirements, which ultimately led to its delisting from Nasdaq in August 2024. Such delisting can significantly impair the company's ability to raise capital and maintain liquidity for its shares.
- Shareholder Redemptions and Reduced Available Funds: The company has experienced significant shareholder redemptions of its Class A ordinary shares in the past, which has directly impacted the number of shares outstanding and the funds available in its Trust Account. High redemption rates can limit the capital available for a potential business combination, making it more challenging to secure a desirable target and complete a merger.
AI Analysis | Feedback
One clear emerging threat for Corner Growth Acquisition Corp. 2 (TRON) is the **intensified regulatory environment and potential for new rules impacting SPACs**. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has proposed new regulations specifically for SPACs, aiming to increase investor protection, enhance disclosures, and potentially increase liability for sponsors. If these or similar rules are enacted, they could significantly increase the cost and complexity of launching and operating a SPAC, make the structure less attractive to private companies seeking to go public, and raise the bar for securing investor capital, thereby hindering Corner Growth Acquisition Corp. 2's ability to identify and complete a suitable merger.
Another clear emerging threat is the **deterioration of investor sentiment and market conditions for de-SPAC transactions**. Following a surge in SPAC activity, many companies that went public via SPAC mergers have experienced significant post-merger stock price declines. This trend has led to increased redemption rates by public shareholders and difficulty in securing Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) financing for new deals. This cooling of investor enthusiasm and challenging market conditions make it harder for Corner Growth Acquisition Corp. 2 to successfully complete a merger on favorable terms, as it reduces available capital and makes the SPAC route less appealing to high-quality private companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Tron (symbol: TRON) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years driven by several key factors:- Growth of its Digital Asset Treasury Strategy: Tron Inc.'s strategy involves the strategic holding of TRON (TRX) tokens and Staked TRX (sTRX) as part of its digital asset treasury, aiming for long-term value creation and active participation in the broader TRON blockchain ecosystem.
- Expansion of its Entertainment Merchandise Business: The company designs, develops, and manufactures custom merchandise, including toys and souvenirs, for major theme parks and entertainment venues, such as Walt Disney Parks and Resorts, Universal Studios, and SeaWorld. Revenue growth is anticipated through expanding existing partnerships, securing new clients, and launching new product lines.
- Strategic Investments and Participation in the Blockchain Ecosystem: Positioned as an innovation leader in blockchain, Tron Inc. makes strategic investments in blockchain ecosystems. These investments are expected to generate returns and contribute to revenue growth.
- Leveraging the Broader TRON Blockchain Ecosystem and DeFi Adoption: As the public company with significant holdings of TRON (TRX) tokens, Tron Inc. is poised to benefit from the overall growth and increased adoption of the TRON blockchain, as well as the expansion of decentralized finance (DeFi) principles within that ecosystem.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | MBLY | Mobileye Global | Dip Buy | DB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % EquityBuying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | SAH | Sonic Automotive | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.9% | -5.9% | -6.1% |
| 02132026 | MAT | Mattel | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | SONO | Sonos | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.7% | -0.7% | -4.6% |
| 02062026 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.6% | 1.6% | -0.8% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| Rev LTM | 2,528 |
| Op Inc LTM | 290 |
| FCF LTM | -1 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2 |
| CFO LTM | 334 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 360 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 11.9 |
| P/E | 15.3 |
| P/CFO | 5.8 |
| Total Yield | 2.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -9.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -19.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -7.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -33.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -68.2% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 04/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 10/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/26/2023 | S-1 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melton, Christopher | Direct | Sell | 8282025 | 5.06 | 15,000 | 75,900 | 160,999 | Form | |
| 2 | McKinnon, Douglas O | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 7.39 | 122,000 | 901,380 | 2,337,589 | Form |
| 3 | McDaniel-Hand, Deborah Lynn | VP of Production Development | Direct | Sell | 6252025 | 9.41 | 100,000 | 941,000 | 941,000 | Form |
| 4 | Miller, Richard A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6242025 | 11.19 | 100,000 | 1,119,260 | 6,715,560 | Form |
| 5 | Safety, Shot, Inc | Direct | Sell | 1102025 | 0.00 | 266,200 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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