T-Mobile US (TMUS)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $210.62 | Market Cap: $233.9 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Wireless Telecommunication Services
T-Mobile US (TMUS)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $210.62Market Cap: $233.9 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Wireless Telecommunication Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 6.6% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -8.9% | Key risksTMUS key risks include [1] a documented history of major data breaches resulting in significant financial penalties and [2] heightened regulatory scrutiny and compliance mandates stemming directly from these cybersecurity failures. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 28 Bil, FCF LTM is 15 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, and Telecom Infrastructure. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 6.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 28 Bil, FCF LTM is 15 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, and Telecom Infrastructure. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -8.9% |
| Key risksTMUS key risks include [1] a documented history of major data breaches resulting in significant financial penalties and [2] heightened regulatory scrutiny and compliance mandates stemming directly from these cybersecurity failures. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Operational Performance Counteracted by Elevated Capital Requirements and Future Execution Scrutiny.
T-Mobile consistently delivered robust customer results and exceeded Q4 2025 earnings expectations, reporting an EPS of $2.14 against an estimated $2.05, a 4.39% beat. Service revenues also increased 10% year-over-year to $18.7 billion in Q4 2025. However, management's reiterated and raised multi-year operating and free-cash-flow targets, particularly emphasizing broadband expansion via fixed wireless and fiber, have sharpened investor focus on the substantial upfront investment levels required and the associated execution risks. Concerns about incremental capital expenditures related to a March 2026 FCC buildout checkpoint for 3.45 GHz spectrum also contributed to cautious sentiment.
2. Leadership Transition and Strategic Pivot to Digital-First Initiatives with Associated Costs.
The completion of a leadership transition in November 2025, with Srini Gopalan taking over as CEO, marked a shift towards a "Digital-First" strategy focused on leveraging AI for customer service and network optimization. While this aims to lower the "cost to serve", it also introduced a period of adjustment for investors. The company simultaneously announced plans to lay off 393 workers by April 2, 2026, as part of cost resets designed to fund ongoing network and broadband expansion, indicating continued internal restructuring and investment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.4% change in TMUS stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 208.01 | 210.82 | 1.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 85,847 | 88,309 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.8% | 12.4% | -10.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.7 | 21.3 | 8.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,124 | 1,111 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMUS | 1.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | -19.7% |
| Sector (XLC) | -6.9% | 11.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.5% change in TMUS stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 249.55 | 210.82 | -15.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 84,052 | 88,309 | 5.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.5% | 12.4% | -14.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.1 | 21.3 | -7.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,133 | 1,111 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMUS | -15.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | -18.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | -3.3% | 11.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.5% change in TMUS stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 265.16 | 210.82 | -20.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 81,400 | 88,309 | 8.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.9% | 12.4% | -10.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.0 | 21.3 | -21.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,155 | 1,111 | 3.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMUS | -20.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 12.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | 6.2% | 26.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 54.2% change in TMUS stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 282.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 136.70 | 210.82 | 54.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 79,571 | 88,309 | 11.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.3% | 12.4% | 282.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 65.5 | 21.3 | -67.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,241 | 1,111 | 11.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 54.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TMUS | 54.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 16.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | 106.7% | 24.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TMUS Return | -14% | 21% | 15% | 40% | -7% | 5% | 63% |
| Peers Return | -1% | -27% | 26% | 25% | -3% | 12% | 22% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TMUS Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 58% | 83% | 33% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 40% | 55% | 58% | 58% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TMUS Max Drawdown | -21% | -12% | -10% | 0% | -10% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -38% | -16% | -15% | -17% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: T, VZ, CMCSA, CHTR, TDS. See TMUS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TMUS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 310 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 589.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3,545 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to T, VZ, CMCSA, CHTR, TDS
In The Past
T-Mobile US's stock fell -32.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/16/2021. A -32.0% loss requires a 47.0% gain to breakeven.
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About T-Mobile US (TMUS)
AI Analysis | Feedback
T-Mobile US is like Verizon for mobile phone and data services.
T-Mobile US is like AT&T for wireless communications.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Mobile Communication Services: T-Mobile provides voice, messaging, and data services to postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale customers.
- Wireless Devices: The company sells various wireless devices including smartphones, wearables, and tablets.
- Wireless Accessories: T-Mobile offers a range of accessories for mobile communication devices.
AI Analysis | Feedback
T-Mobile US primarily sells its services and devices to individuals. The company serves the following three categories of customers:
- Postpaid customers: These are individuals and businesses who subscribe to T-Mobile's services and receive a monthly bill based on their usage.
- Prepaid customers: These are individuals who pay for their mobile services in advance, often through brands like Metro by T-Mobile.
- Wholesale customers: This segment includes other companies, such as Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) and partners, that utilize T-Mobile's network infrastructure to offer their own services or products to an end-user base.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Ericsson (ERIC)
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- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
- Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
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Srini Gopalan, Chief Executive Officer
Srini Gopalan was appointed Chief Executive Officer of T-Mobile US, Inc. in November 2025, succeeding Mike Sievert. Prior to this role, he served as the Chief Operating Officer of T-Mobile. Mr. Gopalan brings extensive global experience in technology, telecommunications, and business operations, driving results through operational excellence, digital innovation, and customer-first strategies. He has been instrumental in advancing T-Mobile's digital transformation and strengthening execution and customer experience across the Consumer and Business groups, evolving the company into a more data-driven, AI-enabled, digital-first organization.
Peter Osvaldik, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Peter Osvaldik was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of T-Mobile US, Inc. on July 1, 2020. He oversees finance, supply chain, and related operations for the company. Mr. Osvaldik joined T-Mobile in January 2016 as Vice President, External Reporting and Technical Accounting, and was later elevated to Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Accounting Officer in June 2016. Before his tenure at T-Mobile, he held Chief Accounting Officer, Controller, and manager roles at Outerwall Inc. (formerly Coinstar). Earlier in his career, he worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers. Mr. Osvaldik earned dual bachelor's degrees in Accounting and Biochemistry from Western Washington University.
Mike Sievert, Vice Chairman
Mike Sievert is the Vice Chairman of T-Mobile US and of the company's board of directors. He previously served as Chief Executive Officer from April 2020 through October 2025. Mr. Sievert joined T-Mobile in 2012, holding various leadership positions including Chief Marketing Officer, Chief Operating Officer, and President. He is recognized as the architect of T-Mobile's "Un-carrier" strategy. Before T-Mobile, Mr. Sievert held leadership roles at Microsoft, AT&T, E*TRADE, IBM, and Procter & Gamble. He also co-founded Switchbox Labs, a startup that was acquired by Lenovo in 2009. Mr. Sievert currently serves on the Starbucks board of directors. He earned a bachelor's degree in economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Jon Freier, Chief Operating Officer
Jon Freier serves as the Chief Operating Officer at T-Mobile US. He is also listed as the President of the Consumer Group.
Mike Katz, Chief Business & Product Officer
Mike Katz is the Chief Business & Product Officer at T-Mobile US. He is also identified as the President, Marketing, Strategy and Products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to T-Mobile US (TMUS) include intense competition and pricing pressure, high debt levels, and cybersecurity threats.
1. Intense Competition and Pricing Pressure
T-Mobile US operates in a highly competitive wireless communications industry, primarily facing rivals such as AT&T and Verizon, as well as challenges from cable operators and mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs). This intense competition often leads to promotional activities, price wars, and pressure on service pricing and profit margins. The company's ability to attract and retain customers is significantly influenced by these competitive dynamics, which can negatively affect its business, financial condition, and operating results.
2. High Debt Levels
T-Mobile US carries a substantial amount of debt, which poses a significant financial risk. This high level of indebtedness can reduce the company's financial flexibility, increase its borrowing costs, and potentially place it at a competitive disadvantage compared to companies with lower debt burdens. Managing this debt requires consistent generation of significant free cash flow, and sustained pressure on profitability could impact its ability to service these obligations.
3. Cybersecurity Risks
Given T-Mobile US's reliance on digital platforms and its handling of sensitive customer information, the company is exposed to ongoing cybersecurity threats. Past cyberattacks have demonstrated the potential for operational disruptions, financial losses, and damage to the company's reputation. Continuous enhancement of cybersecurity measures is crucial to protect against these evolving threats and safeguard customer data and trust.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The emergence of direct satellite-to-phone connectivity, being developed by companies such as AST SpaceMobile and Lynk Global, poses a potential threat. This technology aims to provide mobile communication services (including messaging, voice, and data) directly to unmodified smartphones from orbiting satellites, which could over time reduce reliance on traditional terrestrial cellular networks and infrastructure, particularly for basic connectivity in remote or underserved areas. While T-Mobile has strategic partnerships in this space, widespread independent adoption of satellite-to-phone services could fundamentally alter the competitive landscape and demand for traditional cellular network capabilities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
T-Mobile US (TMUS) operates primarily in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands, offering mobile communications services and wireless devices. The addressable markets for its main products and services in the U.S. are substantial and growing.
U.S. Telecom Services Market
The U.S. telecom services market, which encompasses mobile communications services such as voice, messaging, and data, was estimated at approximately USD 468.08 billion in 2023. It is projected to reach USD 493.50 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% from 2024 to 2030, reaching an estimated USD 725.68 billion by 2030. Another estimate places the U.S. telecom services market size at USD 451.7 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 601.2 billion in 2030 at a 5.88% CAGR. The mobile data services segment holds a significant portion of this market, accounting for 33.5% in 2023 and 39.54% of revenue in 2024.
U.S. Mobile Data Market
Specifically, the United States mobile data market was valued at USD 140.8 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to reach USD 192.9 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 3.20%. Another source indicates a valuation of USD 172 billion in 2024, with an expected rise to USD 233.90 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 5.10%. The wireless segment accounts for the largest revenue share within the mobile data market.
U.S. Smartphone Market
For wireless devices, particularly smartphones, the United States smartphone market reached USD 142.83 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to USD 209.28 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.33% from 2026 to 2033. Other reports suggest the U.S. smartphone market generated revenue of USD 81,864.1 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 96,451.3 million by 2030, at a CAGR of 2.9% from 2025 to 2030. In terms of units, the market reached 160.6 million units in 2025.
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)
T-Mobile US is also a rapidly growing player in the Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) market, leveraging its 5G network for home internet services. The company added 1.7 million high-speed internet customers in 2024, reaching 6.4 million customers by year-end, and 6.9 million broadband connections by Q1 2025. T-Mobile aims to reach 12 million FWA customers by 2028.
AI Analysis | Feedback
T-Mobile US (TMUS) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Continued Postpaid Account Growth: T-Mobile projects between 900,000 and 1.0 million postpaid net account additions in 2026, emphasizing accretive, high lifetime value customer growth. The company has shifted its key performance indicator (KPI) focus to postpaid accounts, reflecting their importance in value creation and customer relationship depth.
- Expansion of Broadband Services: The company is aggressively expanding its fixed wireless access (FWA) and fiber offerings. T-Mobile aims to reach 15 million 5G broadband subscribers and 3 to 4 million T-Fiber customers by 2030, totaling 18-19 million broadband customers. This significant expansion beyond traditional mobile services is expected to diversify revenue streams.
- Growth in Postpaid Average Revenue Per Account (ARPA): T-Mobile forecasts postpaid ARPA growth of 2.5% to 3.0% in 2026. This growth is expected to be driven by deepening customer relationships, increased adoption of premium rate plans, and customers choosing more feature-rich options through T-Mobile's value proposition.
- Expansion into Enterprise and New Business Segments: T-Mobile targets a double-digit revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in its business segment by 2027. The company views enterprise penetration as a significant untapped opportunity and is actively pursuing this market, supported by new wholesale MVNO arrangements and its "T-Priority" offering for first responders. Furthermore, T-Mobile is exploring new sectors such as advertising and financial services.
- Digitalization and AI-Driven Enhancements: While primarily focused on efficiency, T-Mobile anticipates nearly $3 billion in savings by the end of 2027 from digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives. These efforts enhance customer experiences and contribute to maintaining T-Mobile's "best value" positioning, which in turn supports customer acquisition and retention, indirectly fueling revenue growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- T-Mobile US authorized a new shareholder return program of up to $14.6 billion in December 2025, which is expected to consist of share repurchases and cash dividends and runs through December 31, 2026. This program builds upon a $14 billion shareholder return program announced in December 2024.
- In September 2023, the company announced a shareholder return program of up to $19 billion for the period from Q4 2023 to the end of 2024, following a prior $14 billion share buyback program that ran from October 2022 to September 2023.
- In Q3 2025, T-Mobile US spent approximately $2.48 billion on share repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- In August 2025, T-Mobile US completed the acquisition of UScellular's wireless operations and spectrum for $4.3 billion ($2.6 billion in cash and $1.7 billion in assumed debt), adding over 4 million customers and enhancing rural coverage.
- In April 2025, T-Mobile US and EQT closed a joint venture to acquire fiber-to-the-home provider Lumos, with T-Mobile investing $950 million into the joint venture.
- T-Mobile US acquired Ka'ena Corporation, the parent company of Mint Mobile and Ultra Mobile, for up to $1.35 billion in March 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- T-Mobile US's capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $10 billion for fiscal year 2025, a revision from an earlier forecast of $9.5 billion, driven by continued 5G expansion, fiber rollout, and integration costs from the UScellular acquisition.
- For full year 2024, capital expenditures were guided to be between $8.6 billion and $9.4 billion.
- Capital expenditures were $9.8 billion in 2023, slightly exceeding prior guidance, and peaked at $13.047 billion in 2022.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to TMUS.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02132026 | YELP | Yelp | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.7% |
| 02132026 | TRIP | Tripadvisor | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 02062026 | OMC | Omnicom | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.1% | 22.1% | -3.7% |
| 02062026 | MGNI | Magnite | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 20.6% | 20.6% | -0.8% |
| 01302026 | RBLX | Roblox | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.4% | 4.4% | -7.9% |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -11.9% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 46.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 154.7 |
| Rev LTM | 106,008 |
| Op Inc LTM | 19,614 |
| FCF LTM | 17,331 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 12,983 |
| CFO LTM | 30,796 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 26,436 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 154.7 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 6.7 |
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/CFO | 5.4 |
| Total Yield | 12.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 55.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postpaid revenues | 48,692 | 45,919 | 42,562 | 36,306 | 22,673 |
| Equipment revenues | 14,138 | 17,130 | 20,727 | 17,312 | 9,840 |
| Prepaid revenues | 9,767 | 9,857 | 9,733 | 9,421 | 9,543 |
| Wholesale and other service revenues | 4,782 | 5,547 | 6,074 | ||
| Other revenues | 1,179 | 1,118 | 1,022 | 690 | 658 |
| Other service revenues | 2,078 | ||||
| Wholesale revenues | 2,590 | 1,279 | |||
| Roaming and other service revenues | 1,005 | ||||
| Total | 78,558 | 79,571 | 80,118 | 68,397 | 44,998 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $210.82 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 234.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/19/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -20.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $206.17 | $218.88 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 2.3% | -3.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.4% | 27.0% |
| Downside Capture | -0.44 | -0.00 |
| Upside Capture | -64.44 | -22.38 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -18.9% | 13.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.17 | -0.56 | -0.54 | -0.40 | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| Up Beta | -1.61 | -0.72 | -1.00 | -0.35 | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| Down Beta | 0.96 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| Up Capture | -64% | -55% | -48% | -55% | -8% | 8% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 16 | 25 | 36 | 59 | 130 | 413 |
| Down Capture | -312% | -138% | -96% | -61% | 4% | 30% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 5 | 16 | 25 | 65 | 121 | 337 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS | -18.4% | 27.0% | -0.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.1% | 18.3% | 0.33 | 28.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 13.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | -4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | -7.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 25.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 44.2% | -0.49 | -8.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS | 11.7% | 23.6% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.1% | 20.7% | 0.31 | 33.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 33.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 1.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 31.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.6% | 0.29 | 13.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TMUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS | 19.7% | 25.9% | 0.72 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.7% | 22.4% | 0.47 | 48.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 48.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 12.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 38.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.4% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 13.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/11/2026 | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% |
| 10/23/2025 | -3.3% | -5.4% | -7.4% |
| 7/23/2025 | 5.8% | 3.3% | 10.4% |
| 4/24/2025 | -11.2% | -5.8% | -7.4% |
| 1/29/2025 | 6.3% | 7.3% | 19.5% |
| 10/23/2024 | 5.7% | 0.8% | 7.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.9% | 8.3% | 14.9% |
| 4/25/2024 | -0.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -4.5% | -5.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | -5.8% | -9.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026 | Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/23/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Core Adjusted EBITDA | 37.00 Bil | 37.25 Bil | 37.50 Bil | 10.2% | Higher New | Actual: 33.80 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net cash provided by operating activities | 28.00 Bil | 28.35 Bil | 28.70 Bil | 1.6% | Higher New | Actual: 27.90 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 10.00 Bil | 0 | Same New | Actual: 10.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | 18.00 Bil | 18.35 Bil | 18.70 Bil | 2.5% | Higher New | Actual: 17.90 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Postpaid net account additions | 0.90 Mil | 0.95 Mil | 1.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Effective tax rate | 25.0% | 25.5% | 26.0% | ||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long, Letitia A | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 210.32 | 1,457 | 306,436 | 1,143,720 | Form | |
| 2 | Sievert, G Michael | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 216.97 | 22,500 | 4,881,825 | 66,977,759 | Form | |
| 3 | Sievert, G Michael | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 214.25 | 22,500 | 4,820,625 | 61,317,481 | Form | |
| 4 | Katz, Michael J | Pres, Mkting Stgy & Prods | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 215.91 | 2,500 | 539,775 | 33,725,686 | Form |
| 5 | Gopalan, Srini | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 201.82 | 9,800 | 1,977,836 | 18,215,870 | Form |
TMUS Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis reveals a highly attractive probability-adjusted skew of 2.85x. This is driven by the company's widening competitive moat, strong execution on its primary growth drivers (postpaid and FWA), and a valuation that, while at a premium, is justified by superior performance. The primary risk of competition is manageable as long as the core network advantage remains intact, making the bull case significantly more likely than the bear case.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowT-Mobile fits the 'Mature Cash Cow' archetype as it operates in a stable, mature market, demonstrates superior and accelerating free cash flow generation, and has shifted its focus to include large-scale capital returns (buybacks) alongside market share gains.
INVESTMENT THESIS
T-Mobile is leveraging its demonstrable lead in mid-band 5G network performance to consistently take market share in the high-margin postpaid phone segment while simultaneously attacking the large US broadband market with its rapidly growing Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) product. This two-pronged growth engine is driving superior revenue growth and accelerating free cash flow.
- Industry-leading postpaid phone net additions of 1.0 million in Q3 2025, significantly outpacing competitors.
- Rapid growth in the new FWA product, with 2.1 million net additions in FY2025.
- Third-party validation of network superiority, with median 5G download speeds more than double its nearest competitor (Ookla H2 2025).
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is the intensification of competition from cable companies (Comcast, Charter) and a newly aggressive Verizon. Cable providers are successfully bundling mobile services with their core broadband product, capturing a significant portion of industry net adds, while Verizon has publicly pivoted to a volume-based growth strategy. This could slow T-Mobile's growth rate and pressure margins.
- Cable MVNOs captured 45% of all new wireless customers in 2025.
- Verizon's stated 2026 strategy is to focus on 'volume-based growth' and no longer be a 'hunting ground' for competitors.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Postpaid Phone Net Additions | Quarterly additions > 750k | This is the primary engine of high-margin service revenue growth. Sustaining levels well above competitors is critical to validating the Alpha thesis. |
| High-Speed Internet Net Additions | Quarterly additions > 500k | This is the 'new product layer' and the key to extending the company's growth runway. Deceleration here would signal market saturation or intensifying competition sooner than expected. |
| Postpaid Phone Churn | Remains below 1.0% | A significant increase in churn would be the first quantitative evidence that the 'Anti-Alpha' (competitive pressure) is successfully eroding T-Mobile's customer base and pricing power. |
Network Superiority vs. Competitive Price Pressure
BULL VIEW
The 5G network advantage is a durable moat, driving sustained, best-in-class postpaid and fixed wireless share gains, justifying the premium valuation.
CORE TENSION
Can T-Mobile's 5G network lead sustain premium growth and valuation against intensifying price competition from cable bundles and a resurgent Verizon?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Bulls are winning. Q3 2025 postpaid phone net additions hit a record 1.0 million, accelerating sequentially and significantly outpacing competitors, prompting a full-year guidance raise.
BEAR VIEW
The network gap is closing. Aggressive bundling from cable and price competition from Verizon will inevitably slow growth and compress margins.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Watch: FY2026 guidance for postpaid phone net additions. The market will watch for any deceleration from 2025's strong performance. |
Late April 2026 | Verizon & AT&T Q1 2026 Earnings Watch: Competitor postpaid phone net additions. Evidence of share loss to Verizon's new aggressive strategy would be a major red flag. |
April/May 2026 | Comcast & Charter Q1 2026 Earnings Watch: Cable wireless net additions. Continued acceleration confirms the structural threat from converged bundling is growing. |
Next Quarter | FCC Regulatory Action Watch: A Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) targeting spectrum concentration or carrier-imposed administrative fees. |
Monthly | Monthly Consumer Credit Data Release Watch: 90+ day delinquency rates from the Federal Reserve. A sequential increase signals worsening consumer health. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
9/8/2025 | Investor Conference Presentation Details: Following a presentation at a major investor conference, the stock traded down, possibly on concerns about the broader macroeconomic outlook discussed. | Fell notably by -3.9% $251.51 -> $241.70 |
10/23/2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Despite beating estimates and raising guidance with a record 1M postpaid phone net adds, the stock fell, suggesting lofty investor expectations were not fully met. | Fell notably by -3.3% $226.27 -> $218.90 |
11/11/2025 | New 'Un-carrier' Initiative Launch Details: The company launched a new 'Un-carrier' initiative focused on enhancing customer value, which was well-received by the market, driving the stock up significantly. | Rose significantly by 3.0% $204.85 -> $210.93 |
12/2/2025 | Strategic Partnership Announcement Details: T-Mobile announced a new strategic partnership to bundle additional services, reinforcing its value proposition. The stock posted a modest gain on the news. | Modest 1.7% gain $206.63 -> $210.13 |
1/12/2026 | Regulatory and Fee Scrutiny Details: T-Mobile increased its 'Regulatory Programs & Telco Recovery Fee', leading to negative customer sentiment and highlighting potential regulatory risk around carrier-imposed fees. | Slight -1.5% pullback $200.56 -> $197.51 |
1/23/2026 | Competitor Strategic Pivot Details: Key competitor Verizon announced an aggressive 2026 strategy to focus on 'volume-based growth', signaling heightened competition. T-Mobile's stock saw a muted reaction. | Flat (0.3%) $185.39 -> $186.03 |
Position Sizing
7%-10%
AGGRESSIVE
Stock is in a Moderate Volatility regime with compressing near-term fear. The fundamental backdrop is a 'fat pitch': Bullish sentiment, a widening moat, and high visibility justify an aggressive allocation.
Diversification Alternatives
AMT
SECTORInsulated from the wireless carrier price war. AMT is a landlord to TMUS, VZ, and T, benefiting from overall data demand growth regardless of who wins the subscriber battle.
CCI
SECTORA pure-play on US 5G network densification. Avoids the subscriber competition risk of T-Mobile while having less international exposure and currency risk than its closest peer, AMT.
T-Mobile is transforming from a challenger brand disrupting incumbents to a scaled telecommunications leader leveraging its 5G network and fixed wireless to drive profitable subscriber and free cash flow growth.
All news should be filtered through the lens of T-Mobile's ability to sustain subscriber growth, particularly in postpaid and broadband, while improving profitability and shareholder returns amidst a competitive landscape.
Reports of strong postpaid phone and broadband net additions exceeding 900k-1M per year, increased postpaid phone ARPU above $50.71, expansion into new enterprise markets with 5G, higher-than-expected Core Adjusted EBITDA (above $37.5B) or Adjusted FCF (above $18.7B), and successful scaling of the broadband customer base towards 18-19M by 2030.
Indications of renewed intense price competition from Verizon or AT&T leading to lower ARPU or higher churn, significant decline in postpaid or broadband net additions below guidance, increased regulatory scrutiny on the 5G network or spectrum holdings, or any major network outage impacting customer perception and churn.
General industry reports on smartphone sales or handset technology updates are noise, as T-Mobile's re-rate is driven by its service and broadband subscription growth, not primarily device sales margins. Coverage of minor executive changes without direct impact on strategy is also noise.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful scaling of T-Mobile's fixed wireless broadband business, targeting 18-19M broadband customers by 2030, is expected to contribute billions in incremental high-margin service revenue annually, combined with sustained free cash flow growth expected to be $18.0B-$18.7B in FY2026, driving a re-rating based on its diversified growth profile.
Postpaid Mobile Service
$53.5B TTM (60.56% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Recurring monthly wireless service plans (including voice, text, data) for smartphones, tablets, and fixed wireless broadband, leveraging the 5G network; device financing for Apple iPhones, Samsung Galaxy phones, Google Pixels, etc.
Who Pays & How
Over 100 million mass-market consumers and business accounts (e.g., small businesses, enterprises) in the US pay recurring monthly fees for mobile connectivity and device financing. Lock-in is driven by multi-year device financing agreements and perception of leading 5G network quality and value.
Competition
Prepaid Mobile Service
$14.3B TTM (16.15% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Low-cost, no-contract mobile wireless service plans, typically without device financing, offered under brands like Metro by T-Mobile and T-Mobile Prepaid.
Who Pays & How
Price-sensitive consumers seeking flexible, budget-friendly mobile plans. Customers are attracted by competitive pricing and the ability to use the T-Mobile network without long-term commitments.
Competition
Wholesale Service
$3.6B TTM (4.04% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Network access and roaming services provided to Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) and other telecommunication carriers, allowing them to offer mobile services using T-Mobile's infrastructure.
Who Pays & How
MVNOs (e.g., Mint Mobile, Google Fi) and other carriers pay for access to T-Mobile's network to serve their own customer bases. Payments are driven by volume of usage and negotiated access rates.
Competition
Equipment Sales
$17.0B TTM (19.25% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Sales of mobile devices (smartphones, tablets, wearables, fixed wireless gateways) from manufacturers like Apple, Samsung, and Google, often bundled with service plans.
Who Pays & How
New and existing subscribers purchasing or upgrading their mobile devices, often through installment plans. Customers pay for the latest technology and seamless integration with T-Mobile's network.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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