Seagate Technology (STX)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $786.23 | Market Cap: $173.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Seagate Technology (STX)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $786.23Market Cap: $173.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 29% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 2.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.4 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Autonomous Technologies, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 59x Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 209%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 735% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 162% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% Key risksSTX key risks include [1] the successful commercialization and adoption of its new HAMR technology, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 29% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 2.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.4 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Autonomous Technologies, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 59x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 209%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 735% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 162% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
| Key risksSTX key risks include [1] the successful commercialization and adoption of its new HAMR technology, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Seagate Technology (STX) reported exceptionally strong financial results for its fiscal second and third quarters of 2026, significantly surpassing analyst expectations.
In Q2 2026, the company achieved non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $3.11 and revenue of $2.83 billion, marking a 22% year-over-year increase. This was followed by an outstanding Q3 2026, where non-GAAP EPS reached $4.10, beating estimates of $3.53 by $0.57, and revenue hit $3.11 billion, exceeding estimates of $2.98 billion and representing a 44.1% year-over-year growth. The company also demonstrated strong profitability with a non-GAAP gross margin of 47.0% and an operating margin of 32.1% in Q3 2026, up from 20% in the prior year. Additionally, Seagate provided robust guidance for Q4 2026, projecting revenue of $3.45 billion (plus or minus $100 million) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $5.00 (plus or minus $0.20).
2. There has been an unprecedented surge in demand for mass-capacity data storage solutions, largely driven by the exponential growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI) workloads and the continued expansion of cloud and hyperscale data centers.
Global data storage requirements are forecast to almost double by 2029 compared to 2025, reaching nearly 20,000 exabytes, with AI being a primary catalyst. Hard Disk Drives (HDDs), a core product for Seagate, are projected to account for 68% of total shipped capacity by 2026, predominantly as high-capacity, 3.5-inch nearline HDDs essential for cloud and enterprise data centers. Seagate reported that nearline hard drives constituted close to 90% of its total Exabyte shipments in Q3 2026, with capacity nearly fully allocated through 2027 due to extended customer contracts, underscoring its pivotal role in meeting this escalating demand. The realization that AI performance is often bottlenecked by data access speed has positioned high-speed storage as a critical performance multiplier for AI initiatives.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 89.4% change in STX stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 60.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 406.98 | 771.01 | 89.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,058 | 11,010 | 9.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.6% | 21.6% | 10.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 44.6 | 71.7 | 60.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 216 | 221 | -2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 89.4% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STX | 89.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 52.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 15.3% | 56.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 202.6% change in STX stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 126.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 254.77 | 771.01 | 202.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,558 | 11,010 | 15.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.9% | 21.6% | 20.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.7 | 71.7 | 126.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 213 | 221 | -3.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 202.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STX | 202.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 50.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 10.5% | 58.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 757.9% change in STX stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 343.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 89.87 | 771.01 | 757.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,035 | 11,010 | 37.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.7% | 21.6% | 47.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.2 | 71.7 | 343.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 212 | 221 | -4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 757.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STX | 757.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 41.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 58.7% | 50.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1320.9% change in STX stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 1058.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 54.26 | 771.01 | 1320.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,410 | 11,010 | 30.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.3 | 15.5 | 1058.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 207 | 221 | -6.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1320.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STX | 1320.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 47.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 124.2% | 51.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| STX Return | 88% | -51% | 69% | 4% | 225% | 169% | 1302% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -31% | 59% | 26% | 110% | 71% | 570% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| STX Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 75% | 58% | 83% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 40% | 60% | 58% | 65% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 40% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| STX Max Drawdown | -6% | -56% | -1% | -6% | -22% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -39% | -4% | -6% | -33% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WDC, MU, DELL, HPE, NTAP. See STX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | STX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -13.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -53.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 594 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Seagate Technology's stock fell -34.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 53.5% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | STX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -53.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 594 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 385 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -55.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 718 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 538 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 712.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1104 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Seagate Technology's stock fell -34.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 53.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Seagate Technology (STX)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few brief analogies for Seagate Technology (STX):
- Intel for data storage hardware.
- Samsung for data storage devices.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Hard Disk Drives (HDDs) & Solid State Drives (SSDs): Seagate offers a variety of internal data storage devices, including traditional hard disk drives and faster solid state drives, with interfaces like SATA, SAS, and NVMe.
- Solid State Hybrid Drives (SSHDs): These drives combine the speed benefits of solid state technology with the high capacity of traditional hard drives.
- Storage Subsystems: The company provides integrated storage systems designed for enterprises, cloud service providers, and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for managing large datasets.
- Private Cloud Storage Solutions: These are mass capacity optimized storage solutions tailored for enterprises and cloud service providers to build and manage their private cloud infrastructure.
- External Storage Solutions: Seagate manufactures portable and desktop external storage devices, marketed under its own brand (e.g., Ultra Touch, One Touch, Expansion) and through acquired brands like LaCie and Maxtor.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of Seagate Technology (STX)
Based on the provided background, Seagate Technology (STX) sells its products primarily to other companies.
The major categories of its customers are:
- Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)
- Distributors
- Retailers
The provided background information does not list the specific names of these customer companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Dave Mosley
Chief Executive Officer
Dave Mosley joined Seagate Technology in 1996 as a Senior Engineer and has held numerous leadership positions within the company before being appointed CEO in October 2017. He holds a Ph.D. in solid state physics from the University of California, Davis. Mosley has been crucial in driving Seagate's technological innovation, particularly in the development of high-capacity hard drives and Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology. He also assumed the role of Chairman of the Board in 2025. After becoming CEO, Seagate sold its systems business to Cray in 2017. He has also served on the Board of Directors of Cirrus Logic, Inc. since 2024.
Gianluca Romano
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Gianluca Romano joined Seagate Technology in January 2019. He is responsible for Seagate's global corporate finance, strategic financial planning, treasury, tax, investor relations, accounting organizations, corporate development and strategy, global information technology (IT), and supply chain. Before joining Seagate, Romano was the Business Finance and Accounting Corporate Vice President at Micron Technology. He also held senior finance leadership positions at Numonyx and STMicroelectronics. He has over two decades of experience in finance, accounting, treasury, and financial planning, much of which was gained through international assignments. Romano earned a bachelor's degree in economics and business administration from the University of Urbino in Italy.
Ban Seng Teh
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Ban Seng Teh serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer at Seagate Technology. His role focuses on commercial operations within the company. (No further detailed background information found in provided search results).
Dr. John C. Morris
Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
Dr. John C. Morris holds the position of Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer at Seagate Technology. (No further detailed background information found in provided search results).
James C. Lee
Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary
James C. Lee is the Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary for Seagate Technology. (No further detailed background information found in provided search results).
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks for Seagate Technology (STX) are primarily centered around technological transitions and intense market competition, the cyclical nature of the data storage market coupled with broader macroeconomic uncertainties, and concerns regarding its financial health and operational efficiency.
- Technological Transition and Intense Competition: Seagate faces significant risks related to the ongoing shift in data storage technology and aggressive market competition. The company's Hard Disk Drive (HDD) segment's growth prospects and Average Selling Prices (ASPs) have been noted to lag behind those of Solid-State Drives (SSDs), indicating potential peak-cycle risks and a possible demand slowdown post-2027 for HDDs. A major internal risk involves the successful ramp-up and customer adoption of its new Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology, specifically the Mozaic 3+ platform. Delays in the commercialization of HAMR technology could impact future growth and narrow its competitive advantage. The data storage industry is highly competitive, with the continuous threat of commoditization and the introduction of alternative technologies by competitors that could erode Seagate's market share.
- Cyclical Demand and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: The demand for Seagate's products is highly cyclical, fluctuating significantly based on factors such as PC shipments, enterprise spending, and investments in cloud infrastructure. A slowdown in technology spending could lead to a decline in Seagate's revenue. The company is also exposed to broader macroeconomic uncertainties, including ongoing volatility in enterprise spending, trade policy changes, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions, which can impact demand, manufacturing costs, and currency exchange rates. Seagate has historically shown outsized vulnerability to 'Credit & Liquidity Crises,' experiencing larger drawdowns compared to the broader market during such events.
- Financial Health and Operational Efficiency: Seagate's financial risk profile is influenced by its persistent debt levels and uncertain market visibility, which raise concerns about its overall liquidity and financial flexibility. The company's high indebtedness, with a debt-to-total capital ratio significantly above the industry average, is a notable investment risk. Furthermore, rising input costs, particularly for components like DRAM, can pressure future profit margins. The company's operational expenses have also seen an uptick, which, if not effectively managed, could squeeze margins. Seagate's gross margin has been observed to lag behind its primary competitor, potentially indicating less efficiency in manufacturing or limited pricing power in the market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Seagate Technology (STX) operates in several addressable markets for its main products and services:
-
Hard Disk Drives (HDDs): The global hard disk drive market was valued at approximately USD 49,681.5 million in 2025. In terms of regional market share in 2025, Asia-Pacific dominated with 45% of shipments, followed by North America at 28%.
-
Solid State Drives (SSDs): The global solid state drive market size was valued at USD 21.41 billion in 2025. North America held the largest share of the SSD industry, accounting for 37.80% in 2025, while Asia Pacific represented 46.73% of the revenue in the same year.
-
Enterprise Storage Solutions (including storage subsystems and mass capacity optimized private cloud storage solutions): The global enterprise storage system market is estimated to reach USD 157.33 billion in 2025. North America was identified as the largest region in the enterprise storage market in 2025.
-
External Storage Solutions: The global external storage market is estimated to be valued at USD 72.6 billion in 2025. Key growth regions for external storage include North America, Asia-Pacific, and Europe.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Seagate Technology (STX) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Surging Demand for Mass Capacity Storage: The increasing global demand for data storage, particularly from hyperscale cloud providers, enterprise data centers, and the expanding needs of artificial intelligence (AI) and analytics workloads, is a primary driver. Seagate is strategically focused on this mass capacity market and is optimizing its product portfolio to cater to these higher-value solutions.
- Advancements and Adoption of Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) Technology: Seagate's proprietary HAMR technology, branded as the Mozaic platform, is a significant growth catalyst. This technology enables higher areal density, leading to the development of much higher-capacity drives that are essential for managing the immense data generated by AI applications and large-scale data centers. The company is actively ramping up production and customer qualifications for its HAMR-based Mozaic drives.
- Strategic Shift to Higher-Value Products and Build-to-Order Model: Seagate is actively optimizing its product portfolio by reducing exposure to volatile legacy markets and prioritizing higher-value, high-capacity nearline solutions. This strategic shift, combined with the implementation of a build-to-order (BTO) model, provides multi-quarter demand visibility and allows Seagate to exert greater pricing power and improve its gross margins. This leads to a favorable product mix and enhanced profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlShare Repurchases
- In May 2025, Seagate's board of directors approved a new share repurchase program authorizing up to $5 billion in share buybacks, with no set expiration date.
- During fiscal year 2023, Seagate repurchased 5.4 million ordinary shares for $408 million in the first fiscal quarter, then paused repurchases for the remainder of the year due to macroeconomic conditions.
- For fiscal year 2022, the company utilized $1.8 billion to repurchase 20 million ordinary shares.
Share Issuance
- Seagate issued $400 million in senior notes in fiscal year 2025.
- In fiscal year 2024, the company issued $1.5 billion of convertible notes.
- Shareholders approved amendments in October 2025 to increase ordinary shares reserved for issuance under the Employee Stock Purchase Plan by 10,000,000 and the 2022 Equity Incentive Plan by 3,800,000, bringing the total for incentive stock options to 17,800,000.
Outbound Investments
- In fiscal year 2025, Seagate acquired Intevac for $47 million to enhance its manufacturing capabilities.
- During fiscal year 2024, Seagate sold its System-on-Chip Operations for $600 million, with $326 million of the cash proceeds recorded as an investing inflow.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 amounted to $265 million, representing 3% of revenue, with a focus on advancing HAMR technology with its Mozaic platform.
- For fiscal year 2024, annual capital expenditures were $254 million.
- Seagate anticipates capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to be within its target range of 4% to 6% of revenue.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to STX.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BL | BlackLine | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.2% | 3.2% | -3.0% |
| 09302022 | STX | Seagate Technology | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 27.4% | 29.8% | -8.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 340.79 |
| Mkt Cap | 150.9 |
| Rev LTM | 23,760 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,459 |
| FCF LTM | 2,658 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,744 |
| CFO LTM | 3,886 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,047 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 23.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 41.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 63.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 150.9 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 24.5 |
| P/EBIT | 22.7 |
| P/E | 24.3 |
| P/CFO | 18.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 40.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 56.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 117.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 415.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 680.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 29.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 51.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 104.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 385.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 591.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $771.01 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 170.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/11/2002 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $473.78 | $311.14 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 62.7% | 147.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 68.7% | 61.9% |
| Downside Capture | 0.17 | 0.49 |
| Upside Capture | 260.23 | 319.53 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 47.7% | 40.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.36 | 2.41 | 2.28 | 2.62 | 1.99 | 1.45 |
| Up Beta | 1.81 | 2.25 | 2.61 | 2.40 | 1.34 | 1.17 |
| Down Beta | -7.00 | 4.14 | 1.78 | 2.37 | 1.87 | 1.46 |
| Up Capture | 395% | 358% | 351% | 708% | 1135% | 1370% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 18 | 28 | 37 | 71 | 148 | 409 |
| Down Capture | -312% | 114% | 164% | 166% | 123% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 4 | 15 | 27 | 54 | 103 | 342 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STX | 746.2% | 61.7% | 3.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 54.1% | 20.5% | 2.00 | 50.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.8% | 12.5% | 1.73 | 41.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.6% | 27.2% | 1.23 | 21.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.1% | 18.0% | 2.16 | -0.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.4% | 0.53 | 1.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.3% | 42.2% | -0.34 | 21.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STX | 56.8% | 44.6% | 1.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.4% | 24.8% | 0.70 | 54.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 52.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.9% | 0.92 | 15.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.0% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 30.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.9% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 18.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STX | 46.2% | 42.4% | 1.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.9% | 24.4% | 0.89 | 53.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 52.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 7.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 17.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 33.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 9.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | 11.1% | 33.2% | |
| 1/27/2026 | 19.1% | 19.6% | 10.2% |
| 10/28/2025 | 19.1% | 12.3% | 22.1% |
| 7/29/2025 | -3.4% | -0.6% | 9.5% |
| 4/29/2025 | 11.6% | 15.1% | 44.8% |
| 1/21/2025 | 6.8% | -1.0% | 1.4% |
| 10/22/2024 | -8.1% | -10.0% | -13.0% |
| 7/23/2024 | 4.0% | -5.9% | -0.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 16 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 7.0% | 12.8% | 9.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.3% | -5.2% | -4.4% |
| Max Positive | 19.1% | 33.2% | 44.8% |
| Max Negative | -9.2% | -12.0% | -13.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | 3.35 Bil | 3.45 Bil | 3.55 Bil | 19.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.90 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | 4.8 | 5 | 5.2 | 47.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.4 for Q3 2026 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 2.80 Bil | 2.90 Bil | 3.00 Bil | 7.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.70 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 23.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.75 for Q2 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mosley, William D | CEO | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 420.73 | 20,000 | 8,414,638 | 149,608,473 | Form |
| 2 | Mosley, William D | CEO | Direct | Sell | 3232026 | 406.77 | 24,584 | 10,000,034 | 152,779,151 | Form |
| 3 | Morris, John Christopher | EVP & CTO | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 377.44 | 112 | 42,273 | 6,635,395 | Form |
| 4 | Mosley, William D | CEO | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 384.76 | 20,000 | 7,695,262 | 152,326,563 | Form |
| 5 | Conyers, Yolanda Lee | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 393.59 | 750 | 295,192 | 1,909,305 | Form |
STX Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Seagate is a best-in-class operator with a widening technological moat executing exceptionally well within a powerful AI-driven upcycle. However, the stock's valuation fully reflects this rosy scenario, creating a negative risk/reward skew at the current price. The investment thesis is intact, but the entry point is poor. Therefore, it is rated Market Weight, representing a 'hold' recommendation for existing investors but not a compelling 'buy' for new capital.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type C: Cyclical OpportunitySeagate's business is fundamentally tied to the capital expenditure cycles of its major customers (hyperscalers). The current 'AI Supercycle' and supply deficit place it squarely in the 'Secular Cyclical' category, where cycle timing and technology leadership (HAMR) are the primary drivers of value, rather than steady, predictable growth.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for Seagate is the successful, high-margin ramp of its HAMR-based Mozaic hard drives (30TB+). This technology is essential for cloud providers to meet the exponential storage demand from AI workloads at a viable Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). In a supply-constrained duopoly, this technological lead allows for significant margin expansion and revenue growth.
- Mass Capacity segment now accounts for 89% of revenue with a gross margin of ~42%.
- Manufacturing capacity for high-capacity drives is fully sold out for 2026 under long-term agreements.
- Mass Capacity Exabytes Shipped grew 31% YoY in the most recent quarter.
- The cost advantage of HDDs over SSDs for mass storage has widened, with SSDs costing 16x-22x more per terabyte.
PRIMARY RISK
The greatest near-term risk is a pause or slowdown in capital expenditures from major cloud service providers (e.g., AWS, Microsoft, Google). After a period of massive infrastructure buildout in 2025-2026, these customers may enter a 'digestion' phase to optimize their new capacity, which would abruptly reduce demand for storage and break the current supply/demand imbalance.
- Risk models indicate that announcements of capex slowdowns by major cloud providers have historically caused 15-25% declines in hardware peer stocks.
- Hyperscaler capex grew at an extraordinary rate of 68% in 2025 and is projected to grow another 38% in 2026, a pace that is historically followed by periods of consolidation.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin % | >42% | This is the clearest indicator of pricing power and favorable product mix from the HAMR transition. Any degradation would signal execution issues or a shift in the supply/demand balance. |
| Mass Capacity Exabytes Shipped YoY Growth | >25% | This measures the underlying demand from the core hyperscale customers. A slowdown below this level would be the first sign of a potential capex digestion cycle beginning. |
| Revenue per Terabyte | Stable to Increasing | In an industry historically defined by price deflation, stable or rising revenue per terabyte is the ultimate proof of pricing power and a supply-constrained market. A return to decline would signal the end of the supercycle. |
The AI Supercycle: Durable Demand or Imminent Digestion?
BULL VIEW
Successful, high-margin ramp of HAMR drives will meet exponential AI storage demand, locking in growth and pricing power through long-term agreements into 2027.
CORE TENSION
Whether the unprecedented AI-driven demand for mass capacity storage is a long-term structural trend or a short-term bubble facing a sharp cyclical downturn from hyperscaler capex cuts.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The bull thesis is winning. Mass Capacity Exabytes Shipped grew 31% YoY and Non-GAAP Gross Margin hit a record 42.2% last quarter, with production capacity fully sold out for 2026.
BEAR VIEW
A pause in massive cloud capex is inevitable. This 'digestion' phase would erase the current supply scarcity, collapsing margins and derailing the earnings growth narrative.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | FY26 Q3 Earnings Call Watch: Guidance for Mass Capacity Exabytes Shipped (vs. 31% YoY Q2 baseline) and Non-GAAP Gross Margin (vs. 42.2% Q2 baseline). Commentary on 2027 demand visibility. |
Late July 2026 | FY26 Q4 Earnings Call Watch: Confirmation of calendar 2026 being 'sold out'. Any change in tone regarding Long-Term Agreements or pricing power for 2027 deliveries. |
Next 6 Months | Competitor Technology Announcement (WDC) Watch: Headline from Western Digital announcing an accelerated ramp or major customer qualification for their competing HAMR technology, closing the perceived technology gap. |
April - July 2026 | Major Cloud Provider Earnings (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN) Watch: Guidance on capital expenditures. Any mention of 'capex optimization', 'capital efficiency', or 'extending asset life' would be a major red flag. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Oct 1, 2025 | Sector-Wide Selloff Details: Amid broader market volatility and concerns over hardware sector growth, STX stock plummeted over 16% during the first ten days of October before recovering. | -16.53% $255.72 -> $213.44 |
Oct 28, 2025 | Q1 FY2026 Earnings & Guidance Details: Reported strong results driven by cloud service provider demand, shipping 182 exabytes (+32% YoY) and over 1 million Mozaic drives. Stock surged +19.1% on the results. | +19.11% $222.02 -> $264.46 |
Nov 17, 2025 | Debt Reduction Details: The company retired $500 million in notes during the quarter, signaling balance sheet health and prudent capital management. The stock saw a modest 1.2% gain on this news. | +1.23% $257.08 -> $260.24 |
Dec 2025 | Insider Selling Cluster Details: A pattern of 'Cluster Selling' was reported across multiple key executives in Commercial, Technology, and Operations roles. The market largely ignored this signal, with the stock rising 2.2% during December. | +2.23% $268.92 -> $274.91 |
Jan 27, 2026 | Q2 FY2026 Earnings & Guidance Details: Reported revenue of $2.83B (+21.5% YoY) and record Non-GAAP Gross Margin of 42.2%. Mass Capacity Exabytes Shipped grew 31% YoY. Stock surged +19.1% on the strong beat and guidance. | +19.14% $371.11 -> $442.15 |
Mar 3, 2026 | Mozaic 4+ Product Announcement Details: Seagate announced its next-generation HAMR-based Mozaic 4+ high-capacity drives. Despite the positive technology roadmap update, the stock plummeted -5.8% amid broader market weakness. | -5.77% $378.85 -> $356.99 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (5.9x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. Despite BULLISH sentiment and high visibility, the extreme volatility prevents an aggressive position. Capping size to Normal (4-6%) is prudent risk management.
Diversification Alternatives
WDC
INDUSTRYOffers similar exposure to the HDD upcycle but with a different risk profile, including a large NAND flash business and a lag in the critical HAMR technology transition.
MU
SECTORA pure-play on the memory (DRAM/NAND) upcycle, another critical component of the AI infrastructure buildout. Avoids the specific HDD vs. SSD TCO debate.
Seagate is transitioning from a cyclical hardware provider to a critical supplier for AI infrastructure, with its future valuation dependent on the successful, high-margin ramp of its HAMR-based high-capacity drives to meet exponential data growth from cloud and AI customers.
Filter all news through the lens of mass capacity storage demand for AI and cloud data centers, focusing on the adoption rate and profitability of the new HAMR/Mozaic technology platform.
Announcements of new or expanded long-term agreements with hyperscale customers; evidence of HAMR/Mozaic drives (e.g., Mozaic 4+) being qualified by additional major cloud providers; reports of market share gains in the high-capacity nearline HDD segment; sustained or improving gross margins above 40%.
Delays in the HAMR technology roadmap or manufacturing ramp; significant price erosion or loss of market share to Western Digital's competing technologies (e.g., ePMR/UltraSMR); a slowdown in capital expenditures from major cloud providers; faster-than-expected cost-per-terabyte declines in competing SSD technology.
Quarterly fluctuations in the legacy PC and consumer markets; short-term changes in component pricing; individual analyst price target changes without new fundamental data; general market volatility.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the successful production ramp and broad customer qualification of Seagate's HAMR-based Mozaic hard drives (currently 30TB+ capacity). This technology is critical for meeting the massive storage demands of AI workloads and allows cloud providers to lower their total cost of ownership (TCO). With near-line capacity fully committed through 2026 and long-term agreements extending into 2027-2028, successful execution on the Mozaic roadmap underpins future revenue and margin expansion.
Mass Capacity Storage (HDDs & Systems)
$9.0B TTM (89% of Total) · 42% MarginWhat It Is
High-capacity Nearline HDDs (16TB to 44TB+) based on PMR, SMR, and Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology, including the Mozaic product line (e.g., Exos series).
Who Pays & How
Hyperscale cloud providers (e.g., AWS, Google, Microsoft) and enterprise OEM server manufacturers pay per drive. They choose Seagate for the lowest total cost of ownership ($/terabyte) at massive scale, which is essential for storing the vast datasets needed for AI training and cloud services. Qualification cycles are long, creating moderate switching costs.
Competition
Legacy & Other (Consumer/PC HDDs & SSDs)
$1.1B TTM (11% of Total) · 25% MarginWhat It Is
Lower-capacity HDDs for personal computers (PCs), external consumer storage (e.g., IronWolf Pro for NAS), and surveillance. Also includes solid-state drives (SSDs) and storage subsystems.
Who Pays & How
PC OEMs, distributors, and retail consumers pay per unit for storage in devices. This is a legacy market facing long-term decline due to the shift to SSDs in client devices.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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