Tearsheet

Seagate Technology (STX)


Market Price (12/8/2025): $282.0 | Market Cap: $60.6 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Seagate Technology (STX)


Market Price (12/8/2025): $282.0
Market Cap: $60.6 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 121%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 190%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.0%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Autonomous Technologies, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more.
Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 149%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Autonomous Technologies, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more.
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 121%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 190%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.0%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 149%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

STX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Seagate Technology delivered strong financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter 2025 and calendar year third quarter 2025 (fiscal first quarter 2026), consistently exceeding expectations. The company reported a 30% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.44 billion for fiscal Q4 2025, along with non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.59 and record gross margins. For the calendar third quarter 2025, revenue reached $2.63 billion, beating analyst estimates, and adjusted EPS was $2.61, also surpassing forecasts.

2. The company experienced robust demand for its high-capacity storage solutions, driven by growth in AI applications and cloud data centers. Management repeatedly highlighted the surging demand for mass-capacity nearline hard drives from global cloud service providers and enterprise customers, directly attributing this to the expansion of AI infrastructure and the proliferation of unstructured video data.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
STX Return10%88%-51%69%4%213%452%
Peers Return12%35%-31%59%26%93%306%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
STX Win Rate58%67%33%75%58%90% 
Peers Win Rate53%60%40%60%58%68% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
STX Max Drawdown-32%-6%-56%-1%-6%-22% 
Peers Max Drawdown-45%-7%-39%-4%-6%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WDC, MU, DELL, HPE, NTAP. See STX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSTXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-58.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven139.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven936 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-35.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven259 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-41.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven395 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-89.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven819.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1181 days1480 days

Compare to NVDA, AMD, MU, WDC, BGIN


In The Past

Seagate Technology's stock fell -58.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -58.2% loss requires a 139.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Seagate Technology (STX)

Better Bets than Seagate Technology (STX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to STX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
8.3%8.3%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.7%14.7%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%0.0%
STX_9302022_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09302022STXSeagate TechnologyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
27.4%29.8%-8.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
8.3%8.3%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.7%14.7%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%0.0%
STX_9302022_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09302022STXSeagate TechnologyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
27.4%29.8%-8.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Seagate Technology

Peers to compare with:

Financials

STXWDCMUDELLHPENTAPMedian
NameSeagate .Western .Micron T.Dell Tec.Hewlett .NetApp  
Mkt Price278.79168.89237.22138.9123.33117.27153.90
Mkt Cap59.959.1266.294.230.923.659.5
Rev LTM9,09713,27937,378101,45133,0756,59023,177
Op Inc LTM1,9152,8069,8096,9132,0351,4362,420
FCF LTM8181,2791,6684,8602251,6581,468
FCF 3Y Avg703-244-1,4434,4961,4711,3801,041
CFO LTM1,0831,69117,5257,4772,4841,8382,161
CFO 3Y Avg9813309,1977,2154,0861,5632,825

Growth & Margins

STXWDCMUDELLHPENTAPMedian
NameSeagate .Western .Micron T.Dell Tec.Hewlett .NetApp  
Rev Chg LTM38.9%39.2%48.9%10.5%14.0%3.3%26.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.0%8.3%20.3%-1.3%5.9%0.8%3.4%
Rev Chg Q29.5%30.0%46.0%19.0%18.5%1.2%24.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.5%4.7%10.5%4.9%4.5%0.3%4.8%
Op Mgn LTM21.1%21.1%26.2%6.8%6.2%21.8%21.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.4%3.7%-1.1%6.1%7.6%20.2%6.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.8%2.4%3.7%0.1%-0.8%0.1%0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM11.9%12.7%46.9%7.4%7.5%27.9%12.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.9%1.0%30.3%7.5%13.6%24.4%13.3%
FCF/Rev LTM9.0%9.6%4.5%4.8%0.7%25.2%6.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.2%-6.1%-11.5%4.7%5.0%21.5%4.8%

Valuation

STXWDCMUDELLHPENTAPMedian
NameSeagate .Western .Micron T.Dell Tec.Hewlett .NetApp  
Mkt Cap59.959.1266.294.230.923.659.5
P/S5.63.25.00.80.83.23.2
P/EBIT27.719.618.511.113.114.616.6
P/E34.522.522.016.921.718.321.8
P/CFO46.924.810.711.110.911.711.4
Total Yield4.1%4.4%4.8%7.6%7.1%7.4%6.0%
Dividend Yield1.2%0.0%0.3%1.7%2.5%2.0%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.0%-3.0%-2.4%7.6%5.8%6.6%4.4%
D/E0.10.10.10.30.90.10.1
Net D/E0.10.10.00.20.7-0.00.1

Returns

STXWDCMUDELLHPENTAPMedian
NameSeagate .Western .Micron T.Dell Tec.Hewlett .NetApp  
1M Rtn-0.2%3.7%-0.3%-5.3%-0.5%3.8%-0.2%
3M Rtn48.6%83.6%80.7%11.7%-0.3%-0.8%30.2%
6M Rtn121.4%205.2%118.9%23.1%30.5%11.4%74.7%
12M Rtn189.9%219.0%135.5%14.6%0.1%-8.7%75.0%
3Y Rtn466.4%543.6%336.8%250.2%56.0%96.4%293.5%
1M Excs Rtn0.0%4.5%-1.2%-9.9%-2.7%0.3%-0.6%
3M Excs Rtn42.0%75.4%74.8%7.6%-6.0%-8.6%24.8%
6M Excs Rtn106.9%190.7%104.4%8.6%16.0%-3.1%60.2%
12M Excs Rtn175.5%202.7%125.0%-0.9%-1.1%-17.6%62.1%
3Y Excs Rtn413.6%448.6%249.9%161.8%-17.0%17.3%205.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Manufacture and distribution of storage solutions6,5517,38411,66110,68110,509
Total6,5517,38411,66110,68110,509


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,266,821
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-9.8%
Average Daily Volume4,743,121
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.80
Basic Shares Quantity215,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/202519.1%12.3%22.1%
7/29/2025-3.4%-0.6%9.5%
4/29/202511.6%15.1%44.8%
1/21/20256.8%-1.0%1.4%
10/22/2024-8.1%-10.0%-13.0%
7/23/20244.0%-5.9%-0.8%
4/23/20240.7%-0.7%9.4%
1/24/20242.0%-3.9%-1.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121217
# Negative13138
Median Positive6.5%10.5%9.4%
Median Negative-5.6%-5.5%-4.9%
Max Positive19.1%15.2%44.8%
Max Negative-9.2%-12.0%-14.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 10/3/2025
6302025801202510-K 6/27/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/28/2025
12312024124202510-Q 12/27/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/27/2024
6302024802202410-K 6/28/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/29/2024
12312023126202410-Q 12/29/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/29/2023
6302023804202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022125202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-K 7/1/2022
3312022428202210-Q 4/1/2022
12312021127202210-Q 12/31/2021

Industry Resources

Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources
The Verge
TechRadar
Tom’s Hardware
PCMag
CNET