Super (SGHC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $11.39 | Market Cap: $5.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Casinos & Gaming
Super (SGHC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $11.39Market Cap: $5.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Casinos & Gaming
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 82% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% | Key risksSGHC key risks include [1] regulatory and competitive pressures in its core markets, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Markets & Betting, Digital Content & Streaming, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Prediction Markets, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Markets & Betting, Digital Content & Streaming, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Prediction Markets, Show more. |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 82% |
| Key risksSGHC key risks include [1] regulatory and competitive pressures in its core markets, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SGHC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Super Group (SGHC) experienced a -1.4% stock movement between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. Several key factors contributed to this performance.
1. UK Gambling Duty Increases: On November 26, 2025, the UK government announced significant increases to gambling duties, which negatively impacted investor sentiment. Remote Gaming Duty (iGaming) is set to rise from 21% to 40% starting April 2026, and General Betting Duty (Online Sports Betting) will increase from 15% to 25% starting April 2027. Super Group anticipates a 6% negative impact on its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA due to these changes.
2. US Market Exit Costs: Super Group's decision to exit the US iGaming market, announced in July 2025, involved anticipated one-time restructuring costs. While intended to optimize operations and enhance shareholder value, this exit included expected cash restructuring costs of approximately $30 million to $40 million, as well as non-cash impairments and contract provisions.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SGHC Return | � | � | � | 6% | 108% | 91% | � |
| Peers Return | 134% | -7% | -39% | 55% | -5% | -15% | 66% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SGHC Win Rate | � | � | 27% | 58% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 45% | 33% | 55% | 47% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SGHC Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -9% | -15% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -29% | -52% | -10% | -26% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLUT, DKNG, MGM, CZR, PENN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SGHC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 317.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 913 days | 464 days |
Compare to CHDN, BYD, MCRI, FLL, LVS
In The Past
Super's stock fell -76.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/13/2022. A -76.0% loss requires a 317.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| How Low Can Super Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| SGHC Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | September 24th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SGHC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Super
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 28.90 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| Rev LTM | 9,096 |
| Op Inc LTM | 496 |
| FCF LTM | 532 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 192 |
| CFO LTM | 1,307 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 957 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 7.1 |
| P/E | -13.1 |
| P/CFO | 5.5 |
| Total Yield | -1.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
| D/E | 1.8 |
| Net D/E | 1.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -14.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -18.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 28.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -29.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -45.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 9042025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4032025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4252024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8172023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5242023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4272023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11222022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5252022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4202022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |