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RTX (RTX)

Market Price (3/3/2026): $213.79 | Market Cap: $287.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

RTX (RTX)

Market Price (3/3/2026): $213.79
Market Cap: $287.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.4 Bil		 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%		 Key risks
RTX key risks include [1] the significant multi-billion dollar financial and operational disruption caused by the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine's powdered metal defect.
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%		  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more.		  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.4 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
4 Key risks
RTX key risks include [1] the significant multi-billion dollar financial and operational disruption caused by the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine's powdered metal defect.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

RTX (RTX) stock has gained about 20% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fourth-Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat and Optimistic 2026 Outlook.

RTX reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 27, 2026, surpassing analyst expectations with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.55 against a forecasted $1.47, and revenue of $24.2 billion exceeding projections of $22.69 billion. The company also posted full-year 2025 adjusted EPS of $6.29, a 10% increase year-over-year. Furthermore, RTX provided a strong 2026 financial outlook, forecasting adjusted EPS between $6.60 and $6.80, and sales ranging from $92 billion to $93 billion, alongside free cash flow of $8.25 billion to $8.75 billion.

2. Record Backlog and Segment-Wide Organic Growth.

RTX concluded 2025 with a record total backlog of $268 billion, which included $161 billion in commercial orders and $107 billion in defense contracts, providing significant revenue visibility for future periods. This strong performance was underpinned by substantial organic sales growth across all its major business segments in Q4 2025, with Pratt & Whitney achieving 25% growth, Collins Aerospace 8%, and Raytheon 7%.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 21.7% change in RTX stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)113020253022026Change
Stock Price ($)174.33212.1621.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)85,98888,6033.0%
Net Income Margin (%)7.7%7.6%-0.9%
P/E Multiple35.542.419.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,3431,345-0.1%
Cumulative Contribution21.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 3/2/2026
ReturnCorrelation
RTX21.7% 
Market (SPY)0.4%20.5%
Sector (XLI)16.4%48.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 34.7% change in RTX stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120253022026Change
Stock Price ($)157.45212.1634.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)83,59988,6036.0%
Net Income Margin (%)7.4%7.6%3.3%
P/E Multiple34.342.423.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,3411,345-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution34.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 3/2/2026
ReturnCorrelation
RTX34.7% 
Market (SPY)6.7%25.2%
Sector (XLI)18.2%49.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 62.2% change in RTX stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)22820253022026Change
Stock Price ($)130.78212.1662.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)80,73888,6039.7%
Net Income Margin (%)5.9%7.6%28.5%
P/E Multiple36.642.416.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,3341,345-0.8%
Cumulative Contribution62.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2025 to 3/2/2026
ReturnCorrelation
RTX62.2% 
Market (SPY)16.5%39.0%
Sector (XLI)32.6%52.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 130.9% change in RTX stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 63.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820233022026Change
Stock Price ($)91.88212.16130.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)67,07488,60332.1%
Net Income Margin (%)7.7%7.6%-1.9%
P/E Multiple25.942.463.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,4661,3459.0%
Cumulative Contribution130.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2023 to 3/2/2026
ReturnCorrelation
RTX130.9% 
Market (SPY)79.7%31.1%
Sector (XLI)84.9%47.4%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
RTX Return23%20%-14%41%61%11%219%
Peers Return16%18%24%10%33%17%190%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%0%83%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RTX Win Rate67%58%42%58%75%67% 
Peers Win Rate48%60%55%58%60%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%33% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RTX Max Drawdown-8%-4%-30%0%-1%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-6%-17%-12%-14%-10%-1% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LMT, NOC, BA, GD, GE. See RTX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/2/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRTXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven217 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-52.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven109.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven662 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-28.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven39.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven126 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-54.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven118.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven689 days1,480 days

Compare to LMT, NOC, BA, GD, GE

In The Past

RTX's stock fell -33.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2023. A -33.7% loss requires a 50.9% gain to breakeven.

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About RTX (RTX)

Raytheon Technologies Corporation, an aerospace and defense company, provides systems and services for the commercial, military, and government customers worldwide. It operates through four segments: Collins Aerospace Systems, Pratt & Whitney, Raytheon Intelligence & Space, and Raytheon Missiles & Defense. The Collins Aerospace Systems segment offers aerospace and defense products, and aftermarket service solutions for aircraft manufacturers and airlines, as well as regional, business, and general aviation; and for defense and commercial space operations. This segment also designs, produces, and supports cabin interior, communications and aviation systems, oxygen systems, food and beverage preparation, storage and galley systems, and lavatory and wastewater management systems; airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems, test and training range systems, crew escape systems, and simulation and training solutions; information management services; and aftermarket services that include spare parts, overhaul and repair, engineering and technical support, training and fleet management solutions, and information management services. The Pratt & Whitney segment supplies aircraft engines for commercial, military, business jet, and general aviation customers; and produces, sells, and services military and commercial auxiliary power units. The Raytheon Intelligence & Space segment develops and provides integrated space, communication, and sensor systems for missions, training, and cyber and software solutions to intelligence, defense, federal, and commercial customers. The Raytheon Missiles & Defense segment designs, develops, produces, and sustains integrated air and missile defense systems; defensive and combat solutions; land- and sea-based radars; command, control, communications, and intelligence solutions; and naval and undersea sensor solutions for the U.S. and foreign government customers. The company is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

AI Analysis | Feedback

RTX (Raytheon Technologies) could be described as:

  • Boeing meets Lockheed Martin
  • The General Electric of aerospace and defense

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Aircraft Engines: Develops, manufactures, and services jet engines for commercial, military, and business aviation platforms.
  • Aerospace Systems: Provides a wide range of integrated systems and components for commercial and military aircraft, including avionics, interiors, and power and control systems.
  • Missile Defense & Weapons: Produces advanced missile defense systems, precision-guided munitions, and integrated defense solutions for air and ground applications.
  • Intelligence & Space Solutions: Offers advanced sensors, secure communications, cyber solutions, and command & control systems for defense, intelligence, and civil applications.

AI Analysis | Feedback

RTX (Raytheon Technologies) primarily sells to governments and other companies, rather than directly to individuals. Its business model is largely Business-to-Government (B2G) and Business-to-Business (B2B).

Its major customers include:

  • Governments: The U.S. Government, particularly the Department of Defense, is RTX's largest single customer. Various international governments and defense ministries also represent significant customers globally for defense systems, missile systems, and intelligence solutions. These are not public companies.
  • Commercial Aerospace Companies:
    • The Boeing Company (symbol: BA): A major customer for aircraft engines (via its Pratt & Whitney division), avionics, and various aerospace systems across its commercial and defense platforms.
    • Airbus SE (symbol: EADSY): A significant customer for aircraft engines (via its Pratt & Whitney division) and other aerospace components for its commercial aircraft.
    • Other aircraft manufacturers and major airlines (for maintenance, repair, and overhaul services or direct parts supply) are also customers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Howmet Aerospace (HWM)
  • ATI Inc. (ATI)
  • Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)
  • Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH)
  • Eaton Corporation (ETN)
  • Safran S. A. (SAF.PA)
  • Honeywell International (HON)
  • Spirit AeroSystems (SPR)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Christopher T. Calio, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Christopher T. Calio is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of RTX, having been appointed President and CEO in May 2024 and elected Chairman effective April 30, 2025. He leads a global team of over 185,000 employees. Calio joined the former United Technologies Corporation (UTC) in 2005 and has held numerous leadership positions within UTC and its aerospace businesses. His previous roles include Chief Operating Officer for RTX, where he managed the realignment of the company into three business segments, and President of Pratt & Whitney, an RTX subsidiary. While Calio has not founded or managed other independent companies, he led Pratt & Whitney's Commercial Engines Legal Department during key developments and acquisitions, including the company's acquisition of Rolls-Royce's share in the International Aero Engines collaboration. RTX, under Calio's leadership, agreed to sell its cybersecurity, intelligence, and services business segment to the private equity firm Blackstone in 2025.

Neil G. Mitchill Jr., Chief Financial Officer

Neil G. Mitchill Jr. is the Chief Financial Officer of RTX, a position he has held since April 2021. His responsibilities encompass financial reporting and controls, planning and analysis, investor relations, internal audit, tax, and treasury. Mitchill joined United Technologies Corporation (UTC) in 2014 and served in various financial leadership capacities, including acting Senior Vice President and CFO of UTC, and Vice President and CFO of UTC's Pratt & Whitney business, prior to the merger with Raytheon Company in 2020. Before joining UTC, he spent 17 years at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, where he held client service and lead partner roles for industrial products companies. No information is available regarding him founding or managing other companies, selling companies he was previously involved with to an acquirer, or a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms.

Shane G. Eddy, President, Pratt & Whitney

Shane G. Eddy is the President of Pratt & Whitney, an RTX business, a role he assumed on March 1, 2022. He brings over 35 years of experience in the aerospace industry, leading more than 40,000 employees in the design, manufacture, and service of aircraft engines and auxiliary power units. Prior to his current position, Eddy served as Pratt & Whitney's Senior Vice President and Chief Operations Officer. His extensive career also includes leadership roles at GE Aviation, Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation, and Bell Helicopter Textron. He joined Pratt & Whitney in 2016.

Philip Jasper, President, Raytheon

Philip Jasper serves as the President of Raytheon, one of RTX's three business segments. In this role, he leads the Raytheon unit, which combines the company's weapons and space arms.

Troy D. Brunk, President, Collins Aerospace

Troy D. Brunk is the President of Collins Aerospace, another key business segment of RTX. Collins Aerospace provides technologically advanced aerospace products and aftermarket service solutions for a wide range of customers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Key Risks to RTX Business

  1. Pratt & Whitney GTF Engine Powdered Metal Issue: This represents a significant financial drain and operational disruption for RTX. The crisis necessitates accelerated inspections and repairs for a major portion of the PW1100 engine fleet, leading to estimated impacts of approximately $1.5 billion to free cash flow in 2025 and a total pre-tax operating profit impact of $3 billion to $3.5 billion over several years.
  2. Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation: RTX faces ongoing challenges from supply chain issues, particularly concerning structural castings and isothermal forgings. These disruptions, coupled with persistent inflation, contribute to increased material, component, and labor costs, which in turn impact operating profits and margins.
  3. Geopolitical Risks and Dependence on Government Contracts: The company is exposed to risks stemming from geopolitical factors, including potential changes in U.S. government defense spending and international trade policies, which can negatively affect sales and operations. Risks associated with U.S. government contracts include potential terminations, performance delays, and cost overruns, particularly with fixed-price agreements. Additionally, tariffs are noted as a financial headwind, with an anticipated $500 million in tariff-related costs for 2025.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The widespread proliferation and effective deployment of low-cost, mass-produced autonomous systems and drones in modern conflicts present a clear emerging threat. This trend challenges the traditional paradigm of high-value, sophisticated defense platforms and precision weaponry, which comprise a significant portion of RTX's portfolio. The demonstrated ability of inexpensive, readily available drones to impact military operations could lead to a fundamental shift in defense spending priorities towards distributed, expendable, and more cost-effective solutions, potentially reducing demand for some of RTX's core high-cost, high-technology products and systems if they are seen as economically inefficient against such evolving threats.

AI Analysis | Feedback

RTX (symbol: RTX) operates through three primary business segments: Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon. Each segment addresses significant markets within the global aerospace and defense industries.

Collins Aerospace

Collins Aerospace designs, manufactures, and services systems and components for commercial, regional, business, and military aircraft, as well as space operations. Its offerings include aerospace systems, avionics, aerostructures, interiors, mechanical systems, mission systems, power and controls, and information management services.

  • Commercial Aerospace Systems, Avionics, Interiors: The global commercial aerospace market was valued at approximately USD 986.25 billion in 2024. The North American commercial aerospace market alone was valued at USD 415.0 billion in 2024.
  • Military Aerospace Systems: The global military aircraft & aerospace manufacturing industry is estimated to be USD 280.9 billion in 2025.
  • Space Systems: As a supplier for international space programs, Collins Aerospace addresses a portion of the global space technology market, which stood at USD 290.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 392.73 billion by 2030.

Pratt & Whitney

Pratt & Whitney specializes in the design, manufacture, and service of aircraft engines for commercial, military, business jet, and general aviation customers, along with auxiliary power units.

  • Commercial Aircraft Engines: The global commercial aviation market was valued at USD 450 billion in 2024 and is projected to advance to USD 605 billion by 2035.
  • Military Aircraft Engines: The global military aircraft & aerospace manufacturing industry, for which Pratt & Whitney supplies engines, is estimated at USD 280.9 billion in 2025.

Raytheon

Raytheon focuses on advanced defense systems, including missile systems, air defense systems, precision weapons, radars, advanced sensors, cyber solutions, intelligence systems, and space technologies.

  • Missile Systems, Air Defense Systems, Precision Weapons: The global missile market was estimated at USD 55.70 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 93.56 billion by 2030. Specifically, the global missile defense system market was valued at USD 27.81 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 33.60 billion in 2030. The U.S. rocket and missile market was valued at USD 16.25 billion in 2023.
  • Defense Systems (General, including radars, sensors): The global military aircraft & aerospace manufacturing industry, encompassing many of Raytheon's defense products, is estimated at USD 280.9 billion in 2025.
  • Intelligence Systems, Space Technologies: The global space technology market stood at USD 290.45 billion in 2025 and is on course to reach USD 392.73 billion by 2030. The global space intelligence services market was valued at USD 8.6 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 28.7 billion by 2033.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for RTX over the next 2-3 years:

  1. Robust Defense Backlog and Increased Global Defense Spending: RTX is benefiting from a record backlog, with strong global demand for integrated air and missile defense capabilities and advanced technology programs. Geopolitical tensions are driving increased government defense spending, providing a consistent and growing revenue stream for RTX's Raytheon segment. For instance, Raytheon booked a record $16.6 billion in awards in Q3 2024, with 45% for international customers, driven by demand for products like Patriot and SM-3.
  2. Strong Commercial Aerospace Aftermarket Growth: The rebound in global air travel is fueling significant growth in commercial aftermarket sales across Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney segments. Collins Aerospace saw a 9% increase in commercial aftermarket sales in Q3 2024, while Pratt & Whitney's commercial aftermarket sales surged by 19%. RTX expects commercial aftermarket sales to grow in the low teens.
  3. New Product Development and Technological Advancements: Continuous innovation and the launch of new products and upgraded systems are expected to drive future revenue. Examples include increased production of the 360-degree sensor suite for the F-35 (EO DAS) and development contracts for the F-135 engine core upgrade. The company is also investing in advanced manufacturing technologies and automation to expand capacity and improve throughput.
  4. Resolution of Pratt & Whitney GTF Engine Issues: Addressing the "powder metal matter" at Pratt & Whitney, which previously impacted sales and net income, is crucial for unlocking future growth in this segment. RTX has reached support agreements with a significant portion of affected customers and is implementing core practices to optimize inspection and assembly, which is expected to return the Pratt & Whitney business to profitability and robust growth.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • RTX authorized a $5 billion share repurchase program in December 2020, which was subsequently replaced by a $6 billion authorization in December 2021, and another $6 billion authorization in December 2022.
  • In October 2023, the company announced a $10 billion accelerated share repurchase program.
  • From 2020 through the third quarter of 2022, RTX repurchased $6.8 billion of shares, and returned $3.7 billion of capital to shareholders in full year 2024.

Share Issuance

  • Raytheon Technologies (now RTX) was formed in April 2020 through a merger.
  • Since the merger, the diluted share count has decreased by 12% as of early 2024, attributed to share buybacks.
  • Shares outstanding declined from 1.486 billion in 2022 to 1.344 billion in 2024, though they saw a slight 0.91% increase year-over-year to 1.358 billion for the quarter ending September 30, 2025.

Outbound Investments

  • In November 2020, RTX acquired Blue Canyon Technologies for $432 million.
  • During 2021, investments in businesses totaled $1.1 billion, primarily for the acquisitions of FlightAware and SEAKR Engineering Inc.
  • In July 2022, RTX acquired NORSS, a provider of space services.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures were $2.1 billion in 2021, $2.3 billion in 2022, and $2.4 billion in 2023.
  • For 2024, capital expenditures were approximately $2.7 billion, and are expected to be around $2.622 billion in 2025.
  • The primary focus of these expenditures includes investments in production facilities for Pratt & Whitney and Raytheon, operational capacity in strategic global locations for Collins Aerospace, and over $500 million towards critical defense programs such as expanding the Redstone Raytheon Missile Integration Facility.

Better Bets vs. RTX (RTX)

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LZ_2202026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE02202026LZLegalZoom.comDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap		7.2%7.2%-5.0%
ADP_2132026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02132026ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		1.1%1.1%-3.0%
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PCTY_2132026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE02132026PCTYPaylocityDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap		-0.6%-0.6%-4.8%
RTX_6302020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy06302020RTXRTXDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		15.8%42.2%-14.4%

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RTXLMTNOCBAGDGEMedian
NameRTX Lockheed.Northrop.Boeing General .GE Aeros. 
Mkt Price212.16676.70768.02229.74364.78345.74355.26
Mkt Cap285.4156.3109.5176.698.5363.7166.4
Rev LTM88,60375,04841,95489,46352,55045,85463,799
Op Inc LTM9,3007,7314,280-5,4165,3568,6806,544
FCF LTM7,4486,9083,307-1,8863,9597,2645,434
FCF 3Y Avg5,3636,1412,676-3,9503,6545,0904,372
CFO LTM10,5678,5574,7571,0655,1208,5376,828
CFO 3Y Avg8,5367,8164,340-1,6854,6476,1455,396

Growth & Margins

RTXLMTNOCBAGDGEMedian
NameRTX Lockheed.Northrop.Boeing General .GE Aeros. 
Rev Chg LTM9.7%5.6%2.2%34.5%10.1%18.5%9.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.9%4.4%4.7%12.3%10.1%18.3%10.0%
Rev Chg Q12.1%9.1%9.6%57.1%7.8%17.6%10.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.0%2.3%2.5%10.8%2.0%4.3%2.8%
Op Mgn LTM10.5%10.3%10.2%-6.1%10.2%18.9%10.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg7.9%10.9%9.1%-7.8%10.1%15.5%9.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%2.0%0.2%4.4%-0.1%-1.6%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM11.9%11.4%11.3%1.2%9.7%18.6%11.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.7%11.0%10.6%-3.1%9.8%14.4%10.7%
FCF/Rev LTM8.4%9.2%7.9%-2.1%7.5%15.8%8.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg6.7%8.6%6.5%-6.0%7.7%11.9%7.2%

Valuation

RTXLMTNOCBAGDGEMedian
NameRTX Lockheed.Northrop.Boeing General .GE Aeros. 
Mkt Cap285.4156.3109.5176.698.5363.7166.4
P/S3.22.12.62.01.97.92.3
P/EBIT27.022.219.132.717.933.524.6
P/E42.431.126.279.023.441.836.5
P/CFO27.018.323.0165.819.242.625.0
Total Yield3.6%4.7%4.4%1.3%5.9%2.4%4.0%
Dividend Yield1.3%1.5%0.6%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.3%5.5%3.6%-3.1%4.7%2.7%3.4%
D/E0.10.10.20.30.10.10.1
Net D/E0.10.10.10.10.10.00.1

Returns

RTXLMTNOCBAGDGEMedian
NameRTX Lockheed.Northrop.Boeing General .GE Aeros. 
1M Rtn5.9%7.3%11.3%-1.7%3.9%12.7%6.6%
3M Rtn26.7%54.9%41.2%23.2%10.2%20.0%25.0%
6M Rtn34.7%51.5%31.6%-2.1%13.3%25.9%28.8%
12M Rtn62.2%55.5%69.8%31.6%47.2%68.0%58.9%
3Y Rtn128.7%53.5%72.7%6.8%68.0%409.2%70.4%
1M Excs Rtn7.8%10.5%12.1%-0.6%5.5%16.9%9.1%
3M Excs Rtn21.9%49.9%35.4%21.9%6.7%15.7%21.9%
6M Excs Rtn27.2%45.5%26.3%-8.6%7.4%19.7%23.0%
12M Excs Rtn47.9%39.5%53.0%14.8%30.4%55.2%43.7%
3Y Excs Rtn55.8%-17.4%-1.4%-61.1%-3.7%358.8%-2.6%

Financials

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Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Collins Aerospace72,37272,08570,40467,56468,701
Raytheon44,93644,92945,666  
Pratt & Whitney44,30740,72336,20533,41432,780
Corporate, eliminations and other1,2464,1326,58910,1159,762
Raytheon Intelligence & Space   21,54521,573
Raytheon Missiles & Defense   28,76629,337
Total162,861161,869158,864161,404162,153


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$212.16 
Market Cap ($ Bil)285.4 
First Trading Date01/02/1970 
Distance from 52W High0.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$194.35$165.99
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA9.2%27.8%
 3M1YR
Volatility23.4%27.3%
Downside Capture1.9527.86
Upside Capture154.0272.57
Correlation (SPY)23.5%40.0%
RTX Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.200.300.520.550.560.49
Up Beta0.32-0.37-0.280.420.460.46
Down Beta-0.470.480.460.880.820.65
Up Capture-15%84%127%74%58%23%
Bmk +ve Days9203170142431
Stock +ve Days12243772146402
Down Capture-40%-4%30%13%37%54%
Bmk -ve Days12213054109320
Stock -ve Days9172452103343

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with RTX
RTX65.6%27.6%1.81-
Sector ETF (XLI)34.5%19.2%1.4252.3%
Equity (SPY)18.4%19.3%0.7539.3%
Gold (GLD)86.5%25.7%2.411.5%
Commodities (DBC)16.5%17.1%0.7324.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.1%16.6%0.2430.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-22.3%45.0%-0.4312.8%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with RTX
RTX26.4%23.7%0.96-
Sector ETF (XLI)16.0%17.2%0.7558.4%
Equity (SPY)13.6%17.0%0.6343.6%
Gold (GLD)23.9%17.2%1.147.6%
Commodities (DBC)11.1%19.0%0.4722.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.1%18.8%0.1738.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)6.2%56.8%0.3316.7%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with RTX
RTX17.4%27.4%0.62-
Sector ETF (XLI)15.1%19.8%0.6773.6%
Equity (SPY)15.3%17.9%0.7359.3%
Gold (GLD)15.6%15.6%0.841.9%
Commodities (DBC)8.9%17.6%0.4227.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.5%20.7%0.2853.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)65.1%66.8%1.0511.2%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date2132026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12.3 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 131202618.4%
Average Daily Volume6.5 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.9 days
Basic Shares Quantity1,345.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares0.9%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
1/27/20263.7%3.6%1.3%
10/21/20257.7%11.5%8.7%
7/22/2025-1.6%3.0%1.8%
4/22/2025-9.8%-1.0%8.8%
1/28/20252.6%3.9%2.3%
10/22/2024-0.3%-0.4%-5.0%
7/25/20248.2%12.1%13.2%
4/23/2024-0.2%0.9%4.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111417
# Negative13107
Median Positive3.3%3.7%7.1%
Median Negative-1.6%-4.2%-5.0%
Max Positive8.2%12.1%25.5%
Max Negative-10.2%-9.4%-11.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202502/06/202610-K
09/30/202510/21/202510-Q
06/30/202507/22/202510-Q
03/31/202504/22/202510-Q
12/31/202402/03/202510-K
09/30/202410/22/202410-Q
06/30/202407/25/202410-Q
03/31/202404/23/202410-Q
12/31/202302/05/202410-K
09/30/202310/24/202310-Q
06/30/202307/25/202310-Q
03/31/202304/25/202310-Q
12/31/202202/07/202310-K
09/30/202210/25/202210-Q
06/30/202207/26/202210-Q
03/31/202204/26/202210-Q

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Calio, Christopher TChairman, President and CEODirectSell10292025178.324,813858,27814,534,914Form
2Mitchill, Neil G JrEVP, Chief Financial OfficerDirectSell10282025180.154,849873,52810,728,775Form
3Atkinson, Tracy A DirectSell10282025178.912,800500,948729,953Form
4Eddy, Shane GPresident, P&WDirectSell8282025159.7925,968  Form
5Brunk, Troy DPresident, Collins AerospaceDirectSell8132025155.207,6541,187,9082,551,765Form

RTX Trade Sentinel

Stock Conviction

OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

The calculated probability-adjusted skew of 2.33x is highly attractive and falls into Tier 1. The investment thesis is supported by the powerful combination of a strong secular tailwind ('Rising Tide') and company-specific execution on its record backlog. While the valuation is at a premium and the competitive landscape is contested, the sheer scale of the backlog provides a durable multi-year growth runway that appears to outweigh the quantifiable risks from the GTF engine issues, justifying an OVERWEIGHT rating.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / Commodity

RTX's revenue is driven by large, long-term 'projects' in commercial aerospace and defense, which are subject to cyclical capital expenditure trends. The business model relies on securing major contracts and is sensitive to global GDP, air travel demand, and geopolitical defense spending cycles, aligning it with the 'Cyclical' archetype.

INVESTMENT THESIS
Backlog Conversion and High-Margin Aftermarket Mix Shift

The primary long thesis for RTX is its ability to convert its record $268 billion backlog into revenue and free cash flow, while simultaneously benefiting from a favorable mix shift towards higher-margin commercial aftermarket services.

Mechanism: As the massive, high-visibility backlog is executed, revenue is recognized. Simultaneously, as the installed base of new engines (like the GTF) matures, it generates a recurring, high-margin revenue stream from long-term service agreements (LTSAs), which expands overall company margins.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Record backlog of $268B, up 23% year-over-year, providing approximately 3 years of revenue visibility.
  • Full-year 2025 book-to-bill ratio of 1.56x, indicating orders are significantly outpacing revenue generation.
  • Commercial aftermarket sales grew 18% in FY2025, outpacing original equipment growth and driving a favorable margin mix.
  • Company guidance for FY26 projects 5% to 6% organic growth, driven by strong backlog execution.
PRIMARY RISK
GTF Engine Cash Outflows and Execution Uncertainty

The most significant friction on the stock is the ongoing financial impact and operational uncertainty stemming from the Pratt & Whitney GTF powdered metal issue. This 'legacy anchor' creates a direct cash drain and introduces risk to management's execution credibility.

Mechanism: The thesis is pressured by direct cash outflows for customer compensation and engine repairs, which reduces free cash flow available for shareholders. Any increase in the estimated cost or timeline for resolution would lead to negative earnings revisions and compress the valuation multiple due to perceived execution risk.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Management has guided for ~$700M in customer compensation cash outflows in 2026 related to the GTF issue.
  • The cumulative cash outflow for this issue is expected to reach ~$2.8B by the end of 2026.
  • This is classified as a Type 3 (Operational/Execution) risk, a self-inflicted issue that raises questions about internal quality control and program management.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Threshold Rationale
Book-to-Bill RatioSustainably > 1.2xThis is the leading indicator of future revenue growth and demand strength. A drop below this level would signal a potential peak in the order cycle.
Pratt & Whitney Segment Operating MarginSequential quarterly improvementThis segment is the key driver of the high-margin aftermarket thesis. Margin expansion here validates the core earnings growth story.
GTF-related Cash Outflow GuidanceNo upward revisions from the current ~$700M forecast for 2026This is the primary friction point. Any increase signals the problem is worse than communicated, directly impacting free cash flow and management credibility.
Core Investment Debate

Backlog Execution vs. 'Legacy Anchor' Cash Drag

BULL VIEW

The massive backlog and 1.56 book-to-bill ratio signal accelerating growth and pricing power that will overwhelm any specific program's costs.

CORE TENSION

Can RTX convert its record $268B backlog into free cash flow faster than legacy issues, like the GTF engine costs, consume that cash?

PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BULLISH

The record $268B backlog, up 23% YoY, and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.56x for FY2025 demonstrate that new, profitable business is significantly outpacing current challenges.

BEAR VIEW

The ongoing ~$700M annual cash outflow for GTF compensation and slowing growth at Collins Aerospace signal significant execution risk and potential margin pressure.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Late April 2026
Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Watch: Guidance on GTF powdered metal cash outflows for 2026. Current estimate is ~$700M.
Ongoing (Quarterly Earnings)
Aerospace Supply Chain Status Updates
Watch: Commentary on parts shortages (castings, forgings) impacting Pratt & Whitney or Collins delivery schedules.
This Quarter
Major Airline Earnings Reports (e.g., Delta, United)
Watch: Airlines' 2026 and 2027 Capital Expenditure (CapEx) guidance and passenger growth forecasts.
July 20-24, 2026
Farnborough International Airshow
Watch: Value of firm orders and memoranda of understanding for Pratt & Whitney engines vs. competitor GE.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2025-08-01
Cluster Insider Selling Disclosed
Details: Data indicates coordinated open market sales by top executives including the CEO, CFO, and heads of all three business segments over the prior months.
Muted (-0.48%)
$156.26 -> $155.50
2025-08-26
Jefferies Industrials Conference
Details: Company executives presented, providing an update on business conditions and strategy which supported positive stock performance.
Rose significantly by 2.11%
$155.65 -> $158.94
2025-09-10
Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference
Details: RTX leadership presented at an investor conference, likely reaffirming strategy and outlook which was positively received by the market.
Modest 1.71% gain
$154.38 -> $157.02
2025-10-21
Q3 2025 Earnings
Details: RTX reported strong Q3 results, beating estimates with sales up 12% YoY, and raised its full-year 2025 outlook for sales and EPS.
Surged +7.67%
$160.07 -> $172.35
2025-12-23
Major Contract Win
Details: Raytheon awarded a $1.7 billion contract to supply Spain with four Patriot air and missile defense systems, the country's largest-ever Patriot order.
Flat (0.04%)
$185.68 -> $185.76
2026-01-27
Q4 2025 Earnings & FY2026 Outlook
Details: RTX reported a beat on revenue and EPS, a record $268B backlog, and provided a robust 2026 outlook.
Rose significantly by 3.68%
$194.13 -> $201.28
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4% - 6%

NORMAL

Volatility is moderate and compressing. Although the fundamental sentiment is Bullish with high visibility, the stock's expensive valuation prevents a more aggressive sizing. This fits the 'Growth at a Price' scenario.

Diversification Alternatives
GD
INDUSTRY

GD offers pure-play defense exposure with less complexity from commercial aerospace cycles and avoids the specific GTF engine issue affecting RTX's cash flow.

Core Thesis: Strong, stable demand for core defense platforms like Abrams tanks and Gulfstream jets provides high revenue visibility, supported by increasing global defense budgets.
TDG
INDUSTRY

TransDigm possesses a higher-margin, more resilient business model focused on proprietary, sole-source aftermarket parts, offering superior pricing power and cash conversion compared to RTX.

Core Thesis: The business model focuses on acquiring sole-source aerospace parts suppliers, leading to recurring, high-margin revenue streams that are less cyclical than new aircraft manufacturing.
How Is The Market Pricing RTX?

RTX is executing a sector rotation from a defense-dominant contractor to a balanced Aerospace & Defense powerhouse, driven by a record $161 billion commercial backlog and a strong recovery in global air travel.

Filter all news through the lens of backlog execution and margin expansion, particularly in the high-growth commercial aerospace segments.

What will confirm the thesis

Commercial aftermarket sales growth >+15% YoY; Book-to-bill ratio >1.2 in both Collins and Pratt & Whitney; Announcements of increased production rates from Airbus and Boeing; Resolution of GTF engine reliability issues ahead of schedule.

What will damage the thesis

Slowing air traffic growth (RPKs); Delays in new aircraft deliveries from Boeing/Airbus impacting OE revenue; A book-to-bill ratio below 1.0 in the Raytheon (defense) segment for consecutive quarters; Increased financial provisions for GTF engine compensations.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Single-quarter fluctuations in the defense budget; Individual international defense contract wins/losses unless they represent a major strategic shift; Short-term volatility in oil prices impacting airline profitability.

Repricing Catalyst

The primary catalyst is the market's recognition of RTX's record $268 billion backlog, with a significant 1.56 book-to-bill ratio for the full year 2025. This provides exceptional multi-year revenue visibility. The commercial aerospace recovery, with aftermarket sales up 18% in 2025, is a key driver of high-margin revenue growth that is expected to continue.

What RTX Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release, Jan 27 2026
Pratt & Whitney Aircraft Engines
$32.9B TTM (37% of Total) · 8.2% Margin
What It Is

Commercial and military aircraft engines, including the Geared Turbofan (GTF) engine family for Airbus A320neo, and the F135 engine for the F-35 fighter jet.

Who Pays & How

Airlines (e.g., Delta, United) and aircraft manufacturers (e.g., Airbus) pay for engines and long-term service agreements (aftermarket). The U.S. Government and its allies pay for military engines. Switching costs are extremely high due to deep integration with the airframe, creating a multi-decade revenue stream from parts and services.

Per-unit sale of engines, followed by long-term, high-margin 'power-by-the-hour' or time-and-materials service and spare parts contracts.
Competition
GE Aerospace / Safran (CFM International) - LEAP engine series
The CFM LEAP engine has historically had a larger market share on the Airbus A320neo family.
A massive installed base of over 1,500 GTF engines and over 2,400 P&W Canada engines ordered in 2025, creating a long-tail of high-margin aftermarket revenue.
Collins Aerospace Systems
$30.2B TTM (34% of Total) · 16.2% Margin
What It Is

A wide range of aerospace products including avionics, landing gear, wheels and brakes, aerostructures, and cabin interiors.

Who Pays & How

Aircraft manufacturers (Boeing, Airbus) and airlines pay for components on new aircraft and for aftermarket spares and repairs. High switching costs are due to certification requirements and deep system integration.

Per-unit sales for original equipment and per-unit or per-service for aftermarket parts and repairs.
Competition
Safran, Honeywell, GE Aerospace
Competitors have strong positions in specific niches (e.g., Safran in landing gear and interiors).
Extremely broad portfolio of critical aircraft components, making Collins a one-stop shop for airframers. Its large installed base provides a recurring, high-margin aftermarket business.
Raytheon Defense Systems
$28.0B TTM (29% of Total) · 11.6% Margin
What It Is

Missile defense systems (Patriot), advanced sensors and radars, precision weapons (Tomahawk, AMRAAM), and command and control systems.

Who Pays & How

The U.S. Department of Defense and allied governments pay for critical defense capabilities through long-term development and production contracts.

Long-term fixed-price and cost-plus contracts for development, production, and sustainment.
Competition
Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems
Each competitor has dominant positions in different areas of the defense market (e.g., Lockheed in fighter jets).
Incumbent positions on long-term, franchise programs like the Patriot missile system and key radar programs for the F-35 and F-15. Record backlog of $75 billion.
RTX Evolution: Price Return by Era
2015–2019 · The UTC Aerospace Build-up
Creating an Aerospace Behemoth
Under CEO Greg Hayes, United Technologies (UTC) executed a major strategic shift, acquiring avionics leader Rockwell Collins in 2018 for $30 billion and B/E Aerospace in 2017. This created a 'nose-to-tail' aerospace systems supplier, setting the stage for the eventual separation of its aerospace and industrial businesses.
2020 · Merger & Separation
The Birth of Raytheon Technologies
In April 2020, UTC completed the spin-offs of its Otis (elevators) and Carrier (HVAC) divisions. Immediately after, UTC's remaining aerospace businesses (Pratt & Whitney, Collins Aerospace) merged with Raytheon Company, a major defense contractor, to form the new Raytheon Technologies (RTX), a balanced giant in both commercial aerospace and defense.
2021–Present · Post-Merger Execution & Commercial Rebound
Navigating Recovery and Driving Growth +54% (Last 1-Year as of Feb 2026)
The new RTX focused on executing merger synergies and navigating the deep COVID-19-induced downturn in commercial aviation. As air travel rebounded, the company's strategy of having balanced end-markets paid off, with the commercial recovery driving strong growth and a record backlog by the end of 2025. The company rebranded to just 'RTX' in 2023.
Market Appears To Be Cautiously Supportive
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum show mild positive lean. The accumulation signals present but not yet dominant. Earnings history is neutral. The market reaction and subsequent drift do not give a clear directional signal.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
0
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
5 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Trending Up · - ▾
2 Momentum Decelerating ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Outperformance ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Accumulation ▾
5 Volatility Normal ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Diminishing Reward ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Price Intelligence is derived from price-volume pattern analysis only. All moving averages are simple (SMA). Relative strength benchmarked against SPY.

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