Remitly Global (RELY)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.46 | Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Remitly Global (RELY)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.46Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 93x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 161x |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Key risksRELY key risks include [1] its business model's reliance on a global network of third-party payment providers and banks, Show more. | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.7% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 93x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 161x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5% |
| Key risksRELY key risks include [1] its business model's reliance on a global network of third-party payment providers and banks, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RELY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Missed Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecasts
Remitly Global reported an adjusted EPS of $0.04 for the third quarter of 2025, substantially missing the forecasted $0.18, which represented a 77.78% negative surprise. Although the company's revenue surpassed expectations, this significant earnings shortfall likely contributed to a decline in investor confidence during the period.
2. Downward Revision of Analyst Price Targets
Multiple financial analysts lowered their price targets for Remitly Global (RELY) shares. Notably, JMP Securities decreased its price target from $32 to $23 on September 15, 2025, and Goldman Sachs reduced its target from $26 to $21 on October 13, 2025. These revisions from the analyst community signaled a more cautious outlook for the stock's future performance.
3. Decelerating Revenue Growth Projections for 2026
During its Q3 2025 earnings call, Remitly Global indicated an anticipated revenue growth in the "high teens" for 2026. This projection, while positive, might have been perceived as a deceleration compared to the company's higher growth rates in previous periods (e.g., 25% revenue growth for Q3 2025), potentially tempering investor expectations for future expansion.
4. Concerns Regarding Competitive Pressures and Macroeconomic Uncertainties
Remitly acknowledged ongoing challenges such as potential for continued EPS volatility, intense competition within the digital remittance space, and broader economic uncertainties that could impact cross-border transaction volumes. These overarching concerns likely fostered investor apprehension about the company's operating environment.
5. Immigration Policy Concerns
Reports in November 2025 suggested that Remitly's stock experienced a pullback, partly due to concerns over a potential immigration crackdown. While the company's business showed growth, investor sentiment could have been negatively affected by the anticipation of external regulatory or policy shifts impacting the remittance market.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RELY Return | � | � | -44% | 70% | 16% | -38% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -39% | 5% | 16% | -7% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RELY Win Rate | � | 0% | 50% | 75% | 58% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 43% | 40% | 55% | 47% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RELY Max Drawdown | � | � | -67% | -4% | -40% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -51% | -24% | -18% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PYPL, WU, EEFT, PAGS, PAYO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RELY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 604.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, CVLT, AGPU
In The Past
Remitly Global's stock fell -85.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/23/2021. A -85.8% loss requires a 604.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RELY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | RELY | Remitly Global | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.8% | 13.8% | -4.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | RELY | Remitly Global | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.8% | 13.8% | -4.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Remitly Global
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 12.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| Rev LTM | 4,142 |
| Op Inc LTM | 651 |
| FCF LTM | 368 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 491 |
| CFO LTM | 502 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 619 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 9.8 |
| P/E | 12.3 |
| P/CFO | 8.8 |
| Total Yield | 8.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -30.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -39.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -72.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -25.1% | -25.8% | -17.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 15.1% | 21.3% | 18.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | 14.6% | 9.7% | 2.1% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.5% | -8.0% | -20.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | 17.8% | 29.3% | 34.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | 4.0% | 0.4% | 4.1% |
| 5/1/2024 | -12.2% | -15.3% | -25.9% |
| 2/21/2024 | 18.0% | 18.2% | 21.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 15.1% | 18.2% | 14.7% |
| Median Negative | -13.9% | -20.2% | -21.4% |
| Max Positive | 22.2% | 29.3% | 42.1% |
| Max Negative | -31.9% | -29.1% | -45.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3292022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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