Qualcomm (QCOM)
Market Price (4/9/2026): $127.27 | Market Cap: $136.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Market Price (4/9/2026): $127.27Market Cap: $136.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, FCF Yield is 9.5% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 17 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% | Key risksQCOM key risks include [1] the development of in-house chips by key customers like Apple, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, FCF Yield is 9.5% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 17 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% |
| Key risksQCOM key risks include [1] the development of in-house chips by key customers like Apple, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Weak Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance Driven by Memory Supply Constraints.
Qualcomm's stock experienced a significant decline following its Q1 FY2026 earnings report on February 4, 2026, primarily due to disappointing guidance for the upcoming fiscal second quarter (ending March 2026). The company projected revenue between $10.2 billion and $11 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.45 to $2.65, figures that were substantially below analyst consensus estimates of approximately $11.1 billion in revenue and $2.90 EPS. This cautious outlook was largely attributed to industry-wide memory supply constraints, which are impacting handset production and overall demand, particularly in the mid-to-low-end smartphone segments. The stock plummeted 8.5% in a single trading session immediately after the guidance was announced, with management indicating that these supply issues could persist through fiscal year 2026 and potentially into calendar year 2027.
2. Anticipated Loss of Apple's Modem Business.
A significant factor weighing on Qualcomm's stock is the widespread analyst expectation of a substantial loss of Apple's modem chip business, projected to occur by 2027. Apple is reportedly developing its own custom-designed modem chips to reduce its reliance on Qualcomm, a move that analysts anticipate will materially impact Qualcomm's revenue streams and reshape its long-term earnings narrative. This concern was explicitly cited by several financial institutions, including Bank of America, which initiated "Underperform" coverage on Qualcomm with a $145 price target, and Goldman Sachs, which assigned a "Neutral" rating and a $135 price target, partly due to the expected share loss from key smartphone customers like Apple.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -25.0% change in QCOM stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 169.96 | 127.51 | -25.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 44,284 | 44,867 | 1.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.5% | 12.0% | -4.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.1 | 25.4 | -23.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,078 | 1,070 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -25.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| QCOM | -25.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 50.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | -1.6% | 43.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.5% change in QCOM stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -55.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 164.46 | 127.51 | -22.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 43,257 | 44,867 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.8% | 12.0% | -55.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.5 | 25.4 | 64.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,092 | 1,070 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -22.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| QCOM | -22.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 60.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 0.7% | 53.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.0% change in QCOM stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -53.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 150.09 | 127.51 | -15.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 40,695 | 44,867 | 10.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.9% | 12.0% | -53.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.8 | 25.4 | 61.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,110 | 1,070 | 3.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| QCOM | -15.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 71.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 37.9% | 67.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.0% change in QCOM stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 123.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 119.15 | 127.51 | 7.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 42,958 | 44,867 | 4.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.4% | 12.0% | -56.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.4 | 25.4 | 123.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,122 | 1,070 | 4.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| QCOM | 7.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 66.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 91.3% | 68.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| QCOM Return | 22% | -39% | 35% | 8% | 14% | -27% | -9% |
| Peers Return | 52% | -35% | 114% | 43% | 49% | 11% | 405% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 76% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| QCOM Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 42% | 70% | 58% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| QCOM Max Drawdown | -19% | -42% | -6% | -6% | -18% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -45% | -5% | -20% | -27% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AVGO, NVDA, INTC, TXN, AMD. See QCOM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | QCOM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 559 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -34.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 812 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AVGO, NVDA, INTC, TXN, AMD
In The Past
Qualcomm's stock fell -45.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/15/2021. A -45.1% loss requires a 82.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Qualcomm (QCOM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Qualcomm is like the Intel of the mobile world, designing the core chips that enable smartphones and other wireless devices to communicate and process data.
- They are also similar to Dolby Laboratories, in that they own and license the foundational patent portfolio for how modern wireless communication (like 4G and 5G) works, collecting royalties from device manufacturers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Integrated Circuits and System Software: Qualcomm develops and supplies integrated circuits and system software for wireless communication, networking, multimedia, and global positioning systems.
- Technology Licensing: Qualcomm licenses its extensive intellectual property portfolio, including patents for 3G, 4G, and 5G wireless standards, to manufacturers worldwide.
- Strategic Investments: Qualcomm invests in early-stage companies across various high-growth industries like 5G, AI, automotive, and IoT.
- Government Services: Qualcomm provides specialized development and related services and products to United States government agencies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Qualcomm (QCOM) sells primarily to other companies (B2B). Its major customers are manufacturers of wireless products, particularly smartphones, who use Qualcomm's integrated circuits (chipsets) and license its intellectual property for mobile communication technologies.
Here are some of Qualcomm's major customers:
- Apple Inc. (Symbol: AAPL)
- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (Symbol: 005930.KS)
- Xiaomi Corporation (Symbol: 1810.HK)
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM)
- Samsung Electronics (SSNLF)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cristiano Amon – President and Chief Executive Officer
Cristiano Amon was appointed CEO of Qualcomm in June 2021, after nearly two decades within the company. Born in Campinas, Brazil, he earned a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering from Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Before rejoining Qualcomm in 2004, Amon gained experience in diverse roles and companies globally. He served as Chief Technical Officer for Vésper, a wireless operator in Brazil, and held leadership positions at NEC, Ericsson, and Velocom. While with VeloCom, an investment firm, he was assigned to Vésper and helped turn the struggling telecom company profitable. During his tenure at Qualcomm, Amon has held various leadership roles, shaping the company's strategic direction. He spearheaded Qualcomm's 5G strategy and drove the expansion and diversification of the business into multiple industries, including automotive, computing, and IoT. He also oversaw successful mergers and acquisitions to enhance Qualcomm's capabilities. Amon is a member of the President's Export Council and serves on the board of directors for Adobe and Father Joe's Villages.
Akash Palkhiwala – Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer
Akash Palkhiwala is the Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Chief Operating Officer at Qualcomm. He joined Qualcomm in 2001 and has held numerous finance leadership roles, including Treasurer, Financial Planning & Analysis, and Corporate Development, and has been part of the senior finance leadership team for over 15 years. Palkhiwala was promoted to CFO in September 2019 and assumed the additional role of Chief Operating Officer in January 2024. In his expanded COO role, he now oversees the global go-to-market organization, operations, and IT, in addition to his financial responsibilities. Before joining Qualcomm, he worked as an Analyst at KeyBank and as a Private Equity Analyst at Key Principal Partners. Palkhiwala holds an undergraduate degree in Mechanical Engineering from L.D. College of Engineering in India and an M.B.A. from the University of Maryland.
Alex Rogers – Executive Vice President and President, Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL) & Global Affairs
Alex Rogers is Executive Vice President and President of Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL) and Global Affairs, where he oversees both the company's licensing business and its global government affairs activities. He joined Qualcomm in 2001 and has held various leadership roles focusing on intellectual property and commercial litigation. Rogers was promoted to Senior Vice President in 2007, became head of Qualcomm's litigation function, and later served as Deputy General Counsel before transitioning to lead QTL. He also became head of Global Affairs in 2021, guiding Qualcomm's worldwide government affairs efforts and fostering strategic relationships. Prior to joining Qualcomm, Rogers was a partner at the law firm Gray, Cary, Ware & Friedenrich (now DLA Piper), specializing in intellectual property litigation for technology companies. He holds M.A. and B.A. degrees in English Literature and a J.D. from Georgetown University.
Durga Malladi – Executive Vice President and General Manager, Technology Planning, Edge Solutions & Data Center
Dr. Durga Malladi is Executive Vice President and General Manager, Technology Planning, Edge Solutions & Data Center, at Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. He joined Qualcomm as a Senior Engineer in 1998. His responsibilities include technology product management and IP roadmap planning across all Qualcomm Technologies businesses, encompassing Artificial Intelligence, Processors, Connectivity, Data Center, Multimedia, Software, and Developer Ecosystem. In prior roles, Malladi led wireless research in Qualcomm from 4G to 5G and was head of the systems department in Qualcomm Research, with responsibilities spanning system design, standardization, and prototype testbeds. He also drove the 5G Modem-RF technology roadmap across various segments. Malladi holds a B.Tech from the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, and an M.S. and Ph.D. from UCLA. He is an IEEE Fellow and holds 851 USPTO granted patents. He serves on the CTIA Board of Directors and the AI Governance Alliance Steering Committee at the World Economic Forum.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Qualcomm's business include the loss of major smartphone customers and increased competition, ongoing regulatory scrutiny and legal challenges to its patent licensing model, and geopolitical tensions coupled with its significant business concentration in China.
1. Loss of Major Smartphone Customers and Increased Competition
Qualcomm faces a significant structural risk from its largest customers developing in-house chipsets, leading to a projected loss of business. Apple is gradually transitioning to its own chips, which could eliminate an estimated $7 billion to $8 billion in annual revenue for Qualcomm as Apple makes a complete shift to in-house silicon. Similarly, Samsung is reportedly reducing Qualcomm's share of Galaxy smartphone chips, and other manufacturers like Xiaomi are increasing investments in in-house semiconductor design. This trend, combined with a maturing global smartphone market experiencing slower growth and potential declines in mobile phone volumes due to factors like rising memory costs, directly threatens Qualcomm's core Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT) segment. Furthermore, Qualcomm faces intensifying competition in the premium smartphone chip business from rivals such as MediaTek and increasing competition in newer diversification areas like automotive computing chips from companies like Nvidia and Mobileye.
2. Regulatory Scrutiny and Legal Challenges to its Patent Licensing Model
Qualcomm's high-margin Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL) segment, which grants licenses to its extensive intellectual property portfolio, is consistently exposed to regulatory and legal challenges. The company's licensing practices, particularly concerning its Fair, Reasonable, and Non-Discriminatory (FRAND) obligations, have faced antitrust investigations and private litigation across various jurisdictions including the European Union, the United States (from the Federal Trade Commission), the UK, and Canada. A notable class action lawsuit in the UK alleges that Qualcomm abused its dominant market position by calculating royalties based on the total value of a handset rather than specific components, leading to excessive and unfair fees for OEMs like Apple and Samsung. These ongoing disputes and the potential for renegotiation of licensing agreements pose a risk to the stability and profitability of this crucial segment.
3. Geopolitical Tensions and Business Concentration in China
Qualcomm's significant revenue concentration in China, which accounted for 46% of its revenue in fiscal 2025, exposes the company to geopolitical risks. Escalating U.S.-China trade and national security tensions can exacerbate these risks. A recent example is China's antitrust probe into Qualcomm's acquisition of the Israeli semiconductor company Autotalks, which caused a sharp drop in Qualcomm's share price and highlighted the potential for regulatory flare-ups in one of its most important markets. Critics also argue that Qualcomm's investments in certain Chinese firms and preferential licensing deals with Chinese smartphone makers could potentially undermine U.S. security interests and disadvantage American and allied manufacturers. Such scrutiny could lead to delays in obtaining licenses, exclusion from industry standards, and strained relationships with key Chinese clients, impacting Qualcomm's long-term development plans in the region.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing trend of major smartphone manufacturers, such as Apple, developing their own integrated circuits (modems and application processors), thereby reducing their reliance on Qualcomm's components for their flagship devices.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Qualcomm (QCOM) operates in several significant addressable markets for its core products and services:
- 5G Smartphone Chips: The global 5G smartphone chip market, which includes Application Processors (APs), Baseband Chips, and RF Chips, was estimated at approximately $45 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $80 billion by 2028. Additionally, the global 5G chipset market was estimated at USD 39.32 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to USD 81.03 billion by 2028.
- Automotive (Snapdragon Digital Chassis): The total addressable market for automotive, encompassing cockpit and Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS) applications, is projected to be approximately $100 billion globally by 2030.
- Internet of Things (IoT) Chips: The global IoT chips market size was valued at USD 685.88 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 2,023.82 billion by 2034. Another estimate values the global IoT chips market size at USD 619.14 billion in 2025, anticipated to reach approximately USD 2,391.84 billion by 2035.
- 5G Infrastructure: The global 5G infrastructure market size touched USD 25.69 billion in 2023, was predicted to reach USD 34.22 billion in 2024, and is anticipated to reach USD 590.18 billion by 2032. Another source states the market is expected to reach a valuation of USD 43.50 billion in 2025 and USD 675.9 billion by 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Qualcomm (QCOM) is strategically expanding its technological reach beyond its traditional smartphone market, with several key drivers expected to fuel its revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:
- Automotive Segment Expansion: Qualcomm's automotive business, powered by its Snapdragon Digital Chassis platform, is a significant growth engine. The company has consistently reported record automotive revenues, driven by increased adoption of its technologies in new vehicle launches for advanced features, driver-assistance systems, and autonomous driving. Qualcomm aims for its automotive revenues to reach $8 billion by fiscal year 2029.
- Growth in the Internet of Things (IoT) Segment: The IoT segment is a crucial diversification area for Qualcomm, encompassing a wide range of applications across industrial, networking, smart glasses, and robotics. This segment has shown healthy year-over-year growth, with strong demand across consumer and networking products. Qualcomm projects its IoT revenue to exceed $14 billion by fiscal year 2029.
- Expansion into AI PCs and Compute: Qualcomm is making a substantial push into the PC market with its Snapdragon X series chips, which integrate a Neural Processing Unit (NPU) to enable on-device artificial intelligence features. The company forecasts a significant increase in PCs equipped with these chips, targeting $4 billion in PC revenues by fiscal year 2029.
- Continued Strength in 5G Licensing (QTL Segment): Qualcomm's Technology Licensing (QTL) segment, which generates revenue from its extensive portfolio of 5G patents, remains a highly profitable and stable revenue stream. As 5G technology continues to evolve and expand into new industries like automotive and IoT, it creates additional licensing opportunities for Qualcomm.
- Entry into Data Centers and Advanced Robotics: Qualcomm is actively expanding its presence in the data center and advanced robotics markets. Through strategic initiatives and acquisitions, such as Alphawave Semi and Ventana Micro Systems, the company aims to provide custom solutions for hyperscale customers, anticipating a revenue opportunity of $5 billion to $7 billion from its data center strategy by 2027.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Qualcomm announced a new $20.0 billion stock repurchase authorization in March 2026, adding to approximately $2.1 billion remaining from a November 2024 program.
- Between November 2024 and November 2025, Qualcomm repurchased over 50 million shares, totaling more than $7.76 billion in capital returned to shareholders.
- In fiscal year 2024, the company repurchased $4.12 billion worth of common stock.
Share Issuance
- Qualcomm's shares outstanding have generally declined over the past few years, with 1.07 billion shares outstanding as of March 2026.
- The number of shares outstanding decreased by 2.21% from 2024 to 2025 (1.105 billion in 2025 compared to 1.13 billion in 2024), and by 0.97% from 2022 to 2023.
Outbound Investments
- Qualcomm's Strategic Initiatives (QSI) segment focuses on investments in early-stage companies across emerging industries, including 5G, artificial intelligence, automotive, IoT, and extended reality.
- The acquisition of Nuvia in 2021 was a significant move aimed at facilitating Qualcomm's entry into the PC market.
- The company is actively pursuing diversification efforts beyond smartphones, specifically positioning itself in markets such as automotive, the Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence.
Capital Expenditures
- Qualcomm's capital expenditures were approximately $1.2 billion for fiscal year 2025.
- Expected capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 are forecasted to be $1.725 billion.
- Historically, capital expenditures were $1.041 billion in FY2024, $1.450 billion in FY2023, and $2.262 billion in FY2022.
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| 10102025 | QCOM | Qualcomm | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -15.2% | -15.2% | -16.3% |
| 12312022 | QCOM | Qualcomm | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.7% | 35.1% | -5.7% |
| 06302022 | QCOM | Qualcomm | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -13.0% | -4.5% | -18.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 195.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 331.5 |
| Rev LTM | 48,860 |
| Op Inc LTM | 9,172 |
| FCF LTM | 9,830 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,635 |
| CFO LTM | 12,044 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,473 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 19.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 31.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 31.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 331.5 |
| P/S | 10.8 |
| P/EBIT | 44.7 |
| P/E | 37.4 |
| P/CFO | 36.3 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 107.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 117.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 8.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 83.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 45.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qualcomm Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) Technologies (QCT) | 33,196 | 30,382 | 37,677 | 27,019 | 16,493 |
| Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL) | 5,572 | 5,306 | 6,358 | 6,320 | 5,028 |
| Nonreportable segments | 176 | ||||
| Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI) | 18 | 28 | 31 | 45 | 36 |
| Unallocated revenues | 0 | ||||
| Reconciling Items | 104 | 134 | 182 | 1,974 | |
| Total | 38,962 | 35,820 | 44,200 | 33,566 | 23,531 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $127.51 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 136.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/16/1991 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -31.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $136.82 | $156.38 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -6.8% | -18.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 29.5% | 36.4% |
| Downside Capture | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| Upside Capture | 31.00 | 118.43 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 47.9% | 66.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.62 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.69 | 1.46 | 1.57 |
| Up Beta | -0.41 | -0.30 | 0.93 | 1.68 | 1.45 | 1.50 |
| Down Beta | 0.16 | 1.15 | 1.24 | 1.84 | 1.58 | 1.44 |
| Up Capture | 72% | 139% | 68% | 147% | 129% | 430% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 20 | 27 | 63 | 131 | 398 |
| Down Capture | 106% | 155% | 162% | 159% | 130% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 22 | 36 | 63 | 121 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with QCOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM | 2.4% | 36.6% | 0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 56.4% | 25.4% | 1.71 | 63.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 28.9% | 17.3% | 1.35 | 67.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 56.6% | 27.9% | 1.61 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 24.9% | 16.8% | 1.29 | 17.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.8% | 15.6% | 0.63 | 41.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -14.5% | 44.2% | -0.23 | 40.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with QCOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM | 1.4% | 37.7% | 0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.2% | 24.7% | 0.63 | 73.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 69.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.3% | 17.8% | 1.03 | 9.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.8% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 16.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.9% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 40.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 27.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with QCOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM | 12.7% | 37.3% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.7% | 24.3% | 0.82 | 69.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 65.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.1% | 15.9% | 0.74 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 21.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 39.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 18.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/4/2026 | -8.5% | -5.3% | -8.3% |
| 11/5/2025 | -3.6% | -1.7% | -2.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | -7.7% | -8.3% | 1.1% |
| 4/30/2025 | -8.9% | -2.8% | -2.2% |
| 2/5/2025 | -3.7% | -3.2% | -7.8% |
| 11/6/2024 | -0.0% | -7.3% | -7.3% |
| 7/31/2024 | -9.4% | -13.7% | -6.3% |
| 5/1/2024 | 9.7% | 10.0% | 24.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| # Negative | 16 | 17 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 9.7% | 10.3% | 15.0% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -3.2% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 15.2% | 19.7% | 27.9% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -13.7% | -19.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 10.20 Bil | 10.60 Bil | 11.00 Bil | -13.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 12.20 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 QCT revenues | 8.80 Bil | 9.10 Bil | 9.40 Bil | -14.2% | Lower New | Guidance: 10.60 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 QTL revenues | 1.20 Bil | 1.30 Bil | 1.40 Bil | -13.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.50 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 GAAP diluted EPS | 1.69 | 1.79 | 1.89 | -32.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 2.65 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | 2.45 | 2.55 | 2.65 | -25.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 3.4 for Q1 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 11.80 Bil | 12.20 Bil | 12.60 Bil | 14.0% | Higher New | Actual: 10.70 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 QCT revenues | 10.30 Bil | 10.60 Bil | 10.90 Bil | 14.0% | Higher New | Actual: 9.30 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 QTL revenues | 1.40 Bil | 1.50 Bil | 1.60 Bil | 11.1% | Higher New | Actual: 1.35 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 GAAP diluted EPS | 2.55 | 2.65 | 2.75 | 13.7% | Higher New | Actual: 2.33 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP diluted EPS | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 19.3% | Higher New | Actual: 2.85 for Q4 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palkhiwala, Akash J | EVP, CFO & COO | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 173.30 | 3,333 | 577,620 | 6,747,045 | Form |
| 2 | Palkhiwala, Akash J | EVP, CFO & COO | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 175.12 | 10,000 | 1,751,175 | 7,845,790 | Form |
| 3 | Palkhiwala, Akash J | EVP, CFO & COO | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 175.95 | 2,538 | 446,561 | 7,436,522 | Form |
| 4 | Chaplin, Ann C | EVP, GenCounsel&CorpSecretary | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 178.03 | 7,180 | 1,278,238 | 4,262,691 | Form |
| 5 | Rogers, Alexander H | EVP, Pres QTL & Global Affairs | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 178.01 | 15,917 | 2,833,331 | 4,640,809 | Form |
QCOM Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The significant probability-adjusted upside asymmetry (3.94x) combined with the 'Cyclical Inversion' archetype at a trough, strong competitive trajectory (widening moat), and cheap valuation justifies a high conviction Overweight rating. The market is under-appreciating the Automotive and IoT growth ramp offsetting handset cyclicality, presenting a compelling investment opportunity.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type C: Cyclical / CommodityThe business is dominated by the cyclical handset market, but with a clear inflection thesis based on the Auto/IoT growth ramp. The current state is a cyclical trough, mandating the use of 'Cyclical Inversion' logic.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The market will re-rate QCOM as the Automotive & IoT segments demonstrate accelerating growth, successfully offsetting cyclicality in the handset market and leading to a higher, more sustainable earnings base.
- +36% YoY growth in Auto (FY25)
- a $45B design-win pipeline
- strong growth in IoT
PRIMARY RISK
Continued weakness in the handset market due to global memory supply constraints and decelerating demand will persist longer than expected, outweighing growth in Auto/IoT and preventing the anticipated multiple expansion.
- Q2 FY26 guidance miss
- decelerating handset revenue growth (+14% to +3%)
- management's direct commentary
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| QCT Automotive Revenue Growth | > +15% YoY | Validates the core Alpha Driver and the diversification thesis. |
| QCT Handsets Revenue Growth | > 0% YoY | Indicates the cyclical trough is ending and the handset business is stabilizing. |
| Gross Margin % | > 55% | Monitors pricing power and the impact of mix shift from potentially lower-margin QCT growth. |
Diversification Growth vs. Core Market Decay
BULL VIEW
The $45B+ automotive pipeline and IoT growth represent a successful pivot, justifying a higher multiple as handset cyclicality becomes less relevant.
CORE TENSION
Can high-growth Automotive/IoT segments scale fast enough to offset the mature, supply-constrained, and structurally threatened core Handset business?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Q2 FY26 revenue guidance of $10.2B - $11.0B missed consensus of $11.1B. Management attributed the miss to memory supply constraints impacting the core handset business.
BEAR VIEW
Diversification is too slow. Weak handset guidance, memory shortages, and major customers in-sourcing chips are overwhelming headwinds.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Watch: Q3 Revenue Guidance and Handset segment commentary. Any mention of memory supply constraints easing is critical. |
March-April 2026 | Memory Manufacturer Earnings (e.g., Micron) Watch: Commentary on capital allocation between AI-focused HBM and consumer-focused DRAM memory chips. |
August 2026 | Samsung Next-Gen Smartphone Launch Watch: Chipset teardown reports revealing the % share of Snapdragon vs. Samsung's in-house Exynos chips. |
H2 2026 | ARM Litigation Pre-Trial Rulings Watch: Court rulings on the validity of Qualcomm's Nuvia architectural license for its next-gen CPUs. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
9/24/2025 | Apple iPhone Launch Event Details: Apple launched its new iPhone lineup, which continued to use Qualcomm modems, confirming continued near-term revenue from its largest and most contentious customer. | Rose significantly by 2.4% $168.66 -> $172.66 |
10/27/2025 | Former Executive Sentenced in Fraud Case Details: A former executive was sentenced in a long-running fraud case against the company. The market reacted positively, viewing it as the end of an overhang. | Surged 11.1% $168.08 -> $186.72 |
11/5/2025 | Q4 FY2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported strong results for fiscal 2025, including 12% growth in the Handsets segment. Despite the beat, the stock declined on forward-looking concerns. | Fell notably by -3.6% $178.80 -> $172.31 |
12/10/2025 | Automotive Design Win Announcements Details: Qualcomm highlighted new design wins with major automakers including Volkswagen Group, Toyota, and Hyundai, reinforcing the automotive growth narrative. | Rose significantly by 3.5% $176.00 -> $182.21 |
1/6/2026 | Strategic Win: Bytedance AI Phone Launch Details: Bytedance launched a new AI smartphone powered by Snapdragon. This key design win in a high-growth area was viewed positively. | Rose significantly by 3.5% $176.31 -> $182.45 |
2/4/2026 | Q1 FY2026 Earnings & Guidance Details: Company beat Q1 estimates but provided weak Q2 guidance below consensus, citing global memory supply shortages impacting handset production. Stock reacted negatively. | Plummeted -8.5% $148.89 -> $136.30 |
Position Sizing
1%-3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.2x S&P). This is combined with Bearish sentiment, Low near-term visibility, and a contested moat. This profile mandates a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
NXPI
SECTORUnlike QCOM, NXPI has high exposure to the secular Automotive/Industrial growth themes without the significant drag from the volatile and maturing consumer handset market.
AVGO
SECTORBroadcom offers best-in-class operational efficiency and a more diversified, infrastructure-focused business model across networking, software, and storage, making it less susceptible to consumer electronics cycles.
Qualcomm is evolving from a smartphone-centric chipmaker (74% of QCT revenue) to a diversified edge computing company, targeting automotive and IoT sectors, which now constitute 26% of chip revenue and are growing at a faster rate (+15% and +9% YoY, respectively).
Filter all news through the lens of diversification and margin stability, specifically tracking the growth of Automotive/IoT revenues against the maturity and risks in the Handset segment.
Automotive or IoT revenue growth exceeding +20% YoY; announcements of new Snapdragon Digital Chassis design wins with major automakers; material Snapdragon X Elite share gains in the PC market; QTL royalty agreements renewed on favorable terms.
A slowdown in the automotive design-win pipeline growth from its [DATED: Sep 2022] $30B level; QTL royalty rate pressure from regulators or major customers like Apple; evidence of Apple successfully deploying its in-house 5G modem across all new iPhone models.
Quarterly fluctuations in global handset shipments (largely expected and guided); short-term channel inventory adjustments due to factors like memory supply (as seen in Q2 FY26 guidance); single-product benchmark wins/losses against MediaTek that don't shift market share.
Repricing Catalyst
The ramp-up of the Automotive and IoT segments, which are growing faster (+15% and +9% YoY, respectively) than the core Handsets business (+3% YoY). Management has a long-term target for Automotive to reach over $9B in revenue by FY2031 and for combined Automotive and IoT to reach $22B by FY2029.
Snapdragon Chips for Handsets
$31.3B TTM (64% of Total) · 31% MarginWhat It Is
Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 for premium Android phones; Snapdragon X series for AI PCs; 5G modems (e.g., Snapdragon X80).
Who Pays & How
Smartphone OEMs like Samsung and Xiaomi pay per-chip. They choose Qualcomm for performance leadership, deep integration of components (CPU, GPU, modem), and carrier certifications, creating high switching costs within a product generation.
Competition
Patent Licensing (5G & Wireless Tech)
$6.4B TTM (13% of Total) · 77% MarginWhat It Is
Licenses to a vast portfolio of essential patents for wireless technologies including CDMA, 3G, 4G, and 5G.
Who Pays & How
Virtually every handset manufacturer (including Apple and Samsung) pays a royalty, typically a percentage of the device's selling price, to license Qualcomm's standard-essential patents required for cellular connectivity.
Competition
Automotive & Cockpit Processors
$4.4B TTM (9% of Total) · 31% MarginWhat It Is
Snapdragon Digital Chassis platform, including Snapdragon Ride for ADAS/autonomous driving and Snapdragon Cockpit for in-car infotainment.
Who Pays & How
Automakers and Tier-1 suppliers (e.g., Volkswagen Group, Mercedes-Benz) pay for these platforms to power the digital features in their vehicles. The long design cycles (3-5 years) and high software integration costs create significant lock-in.
Competition
Internet of Things (IoT) Chips
$6.8B TTM (14% of Total) · 31% MarginWhat It Is
Processors for a wide range of connected devices, including consumer electronics (smart speakers, wearables), edge networking equipment (5G fixed wireless access points), and industrial applications (robotics, smart cameras).
Who Pays & How
A diverse set of OEMs across consumer, enterprise, and industrial sectors pay for chips to add connectivity and intelligence to their products. Qualcomm offers a scalable platform that reduces development time.
Competition
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