Tearsheet

Prospect Capital (PSEC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $2.52 | Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Prospect Capital (PSEC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $2.52
Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5%, Dividend Yield is 26%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is -198 Mil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.45
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -351%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -150%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, and Private Credit.
  Key risks
PSEC key risks include [1] a dysfunctional corporate culture eroding its industry reputation, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5%, Dividend Yield is 26%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, and Private Credit.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.45
5 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is -198 Mil
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -351%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -150%
7 Key risks
PSEC key risks include [1] a dysfunctional corporate culture eroding its industry reputation, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PSEC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -12.2% stock movement for Prospect Capital (PSEC) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: **1. Continued Decline in Net Asset Value (NAV) per Share.** Prospect Capital experienced a consistent decline in its Net Asset Value (NAV) per common share, a crucial metric for Business Development Companies (BDCs). The NAV per share had fallen for four consecutive quarters through March 2025, and in the fiscal Q4 2025 (ending June 2025, reported August 26, 2025), it further declined by 9.5%. This prolonged reduction in NAV suggests a deterioration in the fundamental value of the company's underlying investments. As of March 31, 2025, NAV per common share was $7.25, significantly down from $8.99 a year prior.

**2. Missed Revenue Expectations in Recent Earnings Reports.** While Net Investment Income (NII) per share occasionally met or exceeded estimates, Prospect Capital's revenue consistently fell short of analyst expectations during this period. For example, in its Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings report (for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, reported November 6, 2025), the company reported revenue of $119.44 million, missing analysts' consensus estimate of $169.53 million. This indicated weaker-than-anticipated top-line performance, which can be a significant concern for investors.

**3. Credit Rating Downgrades and Ongoing Concerns about Asset Quality.** Concerns surrounding Prospect Capital's asset quality and credit ratings continued to impact investor sentiment. Although some downgrades occurred prior to the precise start of the period, such as S&P Global Ratings lowering its issuer credit rating to 'BB+' from 'BBB-' in December 2024 due to "continued asset quality challenges," elevated nonaccruals, and payment-in-kind (PIK) income, these issues remained relevant and contributed to a cautious outlook. KBRA also downgraded the company's ratings in 2025, citing concentrated portfolio exposures and weaker asset performance.

**4. Rising Non-Accrual Loans.** A notable increase in non-accrual loans, which represent loans where the borrower is not making regular payments, indicated a deterioration in the credit quality of Prospect Capital's investment portfolio. Non-accrual loans as a percentage of total assets rose to 0.6% by March 31, 2025, from 0.4% in the prior quarter. This trend continued into fiscal Q1 2026 (ending September 30, 2025), where the non-accrual percentage increased to 0.7% based on fair value. Such increases typically signal higher risks of future write-downs and potential losses.

**5. Negative Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Reductions.** Throughout the period, several financial analysts expressed a negative outlook on Prospect Capital, leading to reduced price targets and "underweight" or "sell" ratings. For instance, on August 28, 2025, Wells Fargo & Company cut its price target on PSEC from $3.00 to $2.50 and maintained an "underweight" rating. As of December 16, 2025, the stock held a consensus "Sell" rating with an average price target of $2.50, reflecting widespread analyst skepticism regarding the company's future performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PSEC Return-4%70%-9%-4%-18%-31%-19%
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PSEC Win Rate58%58%50%50%25%25% 
Peers Win Rate 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PSEC Max Drawdown-39%0%-22%-20%-22%-34% 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPSECS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-42.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven75.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven304 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-66.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven197.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1,480 days

Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS


In The Past

Prospect Capital's stock fell -42.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -42.9% loss requires a 75.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Prospect Capital (PSEC)

Better Bets than Prospect Capital (PSEC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PSEC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Prospect Capital

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PSECVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameProspect.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
Mkt Price2.49164.8315.54169.822.36-15.54
Mkt Cap1.31.10.80.50.1-0.8
Rev LTM-19887410015223-100
Op Inc LTM-179-44-10-44
FCF LTM62870104-351-70
FCF 3Y Avg31312513816-8-125
CFO LTM62877104-321-77
CFO 3Y Avg31313213817-8-132

Growth & Margins

PSECVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameProspect.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
Rev Chg LTM-351.4%-1.2%-6.2%2.9%24.8%--1.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-150.3%-2.4%159.6%-2.1%65.1%--2.1%
Rev Chg Q178.4%-4.8%8.2%-2.0%170.2%-8.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM51.4%-1.2%2.1%-0.6%41.7%-2.1%
Op Mgn LTM-20.5%-28.8%-42.1%-20.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-18.9%-26.5%-64.4%-18.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.1%--0.2%6.9%--0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-8.9%104.5%-21.2%2.6%-5.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-15.6%142.9%11.7%-61.2%-13.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-8.0%104.5%-23.1%2.6%-5.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-14.7%142.9%11.0%-61.3%-12.9%

Valuation

PSECVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameProspect.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
Mkt Cap1.31.10.80.50.1-0.8
P/S-1.58.32.53.0-2.7
P/EBIT-3.6-8.77.6-7.6
P/E-4.99.49.38.121.2-9.3
P/CFO2.016.68.0-11.8114.9-8.0
Total Yield5.5%15.6%21.5%16.6%4.7%-15.6%
Dividend Yield25.9%5.0%10.7%4.3%0.0%-5.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-8.7%16.7%2.9%-14.4%-5.8%
D/E-2.01.40.00.9-1.1
Net D/E-1.60.9-0.1-0.9-0.4

Returns

PSECVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameProspect.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
1M Rtn-6.9%6.0%6.8%33.0%-2.1%-6.0%
3M Rtn-5.2%-12.4%-0.1%26.5%-17.2%--5.2%
6M Rtn-14.0%-2.8%0.9%29.6%5.8%-0.9%
12M Rtn-33.1%-25.7%7.2%17.6%31.1%-7.2%
3Y Rtn-49.1%-1.6%47.1%8.0%22.9%-8.0%
1M Excs Rtn-7.6%5.3%6.1%32.3%-2.8%-5.3%
3M Excs Rtn-3.3%-15.4%-2.4%22.9%-17.1%--3.3%
6M Excs Rtn-26.4%-15.2%-11.5%17.2%-6.6%--11.5%
12M Excs Rtn-46.1%-38.7%-6.7%3.7%20.0%--6.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-117.3%-72.4%-25.1%-61.9%-44.2%--61.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment7053309601,334342
Total7053309601,334342


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity38,093,705
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-1.8%
Average Daily Volume3,646,049
Days-to-Cover Short Interest10.45
Basic Shares Quantity461,356,032
Short % of Basic Shares8.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/20257.5%9.0%5.7%
8/27/20250.0%-0.7%-8.5%
5/9/20254.2%4.2%-3.5%
2/10/20252.9%6.7%2.7%
11/8/2024-2.0%-1.1%-0.4%
8/28/2024-0.4%4.2%7.0%
5/8/20244.3%8.4%8.2%
2/8/2024-6.9%-1.9%-4.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141412
# Negative8810
Median Positive1.7%4.2%7.4%
Median Negative-1.7%-1.8%-4.7%
Max Positive12.1%15.2%23.4%
Max Negative-6.9%-5.0%-22.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025826202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024210202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024828202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023908202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022208202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022906202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-Q 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Eliasek M GrierChief Operating Officer9292025Buy2.71370,0001,002,7006,778,063Form
1Barry John FCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER9292025Buy2.72925,0002,517,758234,266,198Form
2Barry John FCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER9252025Buy2.66384,0001,021,478224,515,101Form
3Barry John FCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER9232025Buy2.66374,500997,219223,720,468Form
4Barry John FCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER3262025Buy4.2424,000101,681349,928,286Form