Palmer Square Capital BDC (PSBD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.37 | Market Cap: $396.9 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Palmer Square Capital BDC (PSBD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.37Market Cap: $396.9 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 35% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 190% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 743%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 743% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 21x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -69%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit, and Private Equity. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 35% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 743%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 743% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit, and Private Equity. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 190% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 21x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -69%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -50% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PSBD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -10.6% movement in Palmer Square Capital BDC (PSBD) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
**1. Decline in Net Asset Value (NAV) per share.** Palmer Square Capital BDC's net asset value per share decreased to $15.39 as of September 30, 2025, from $15.68 as of June 30, 2025. This decline in intrinsic value per share often correlates with a negative stock price movement.
**2. Decrease in Net Investment Income (NII) year-over-year.** For the third quarter of 2025, the company reported net investment income of $0.43 per share, which was a decrease compared to $0.48 per share in the comparable period of the previous year. While exceeding analyst estimates, the year-over-year decline in core profitability can raise investor concerns.
**3. Increase in net realized and unrealized losses.** Palmer Square Capital BDC reported total net realized and unrealized losses of $10.3 million for the third quarter of 2025, an increase from losses of $8.2 million in the third quarter of 2024. These losses indicate a deterioration in the value of the company's investment portfolio.
**4. Analyst downgrade and price target reduction.** Around December 1, 2025, RBC Capital downgraded PSBD and reduced its price target to $13.00, which can negatively influence investor sentiment and contribute to a stock price decline.
**5. Concerns regarding dividend sustainability and increased short interest.** The company's dividend payout ratio stands at a high 334.88%, with projections suggesting it may not be sustainable given future earnings per share estimates. Concurrently, short interest in PSBD increased by 25.89% recently, reflecting growing investor skepticism and a decreasing sentiment towards the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PSBD Return | - | - | - | - | - | -12% | -12% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 14% | -11% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 33% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PSBD Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 64% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 40% | 28% | 45% | 38% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PSBD Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -10% | -25% | -9% | -9% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, FGNX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
PSBD has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4470 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Palmer Square Capital BDC Stock Really Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PSBD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Palmer Square Capital BDC
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.15 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 59 |
| Op Inc LTM | 44 |
| FCF LTM | 33 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5 |
| CFO LTM | 37 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 27.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -6.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -7.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 3.6 |
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/CFO | 2.8 |
| Total Yield | 18.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| D/E | 1.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -12.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 12.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -27.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1182024 | 424B1 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
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