PDF Solutions (PDFS)
Market Price (2/4/2026): $29.26 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
PDF Solutions (PDFS)
Market Price (2/4/2026): $29.26Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 139x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10.0% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.1% | ||
| Key risksPDFS key risks include [1] significant customer concentration, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 139x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10.0% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.1% |
| Key risksPDFS key risks include [1] significant customer concentration, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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PDF Solutions (PDFS) stock has remained largely at the same level since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Analyst Sentiment and Upgrades.
PDF Solutions (PDFS) benefited from positive analyst sentiment, including "Strong Buy" ratings and increased price targets during the period. For instance, on December 5, 2025, DA Davidson raised its price objective for PDF Solutions from $34.00 to $36.00 while maintaining a "buy" rating. As of February 2, 2026, the average twelve-month stock price forecast for PDF Solutions was $34.50, with analysts predicting a 7.47% upside. Previously, on October 23, 2025, analysts had set an average target price of $30.00 with a potential upside of 9.61%, underscoring a bullish outlook.
2. Reaffirmed Strong Financial Outlook and Revenue Growth.
The company consistently reaffirmed its positive financial outlook and demonstrated strong revenue growth. On December 1, 2025, PDF Solutions reaffirmed its 2025 financial outlook, including its prior guidance for 21-23% annual revenue growth. The outlook for 2025 was further bolstered by anticipated growth in Analytics revenue, predominantly from the Exensio analytics platform, which was expected to contribute 93% of the total revenue for the year and support the full-year organic revenue growth forecast of around 21%. Earlier, on November 7, 2025, the company reported record Q3 2025 revenues, and its quarterly earnings on November 9, 2025, met consensus estimates with revenue of $57.12 million against a consensus of $56.69 million.
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1. Strong Analyst Sentiment and Upgrades.
PDF Solutions (PDFS) benefited from positive analyst sentiment, including "Strong Buy" ratings and increased price targets during the period. For instance, on December 5, 2025, DA Davidson raised its price objective for PDF Solutions from $34.00 to $36.00 while maintaining a "buy" rating. As of February 2, 2026, the average twelve-month stock price forecast for PDF Solutions was $34.50, with analysts predicting a 7.47% upside. Previously, on October 23, 2025, analysts had set an average target price of $30.00 with a potential upside of 9.61%, underscoring a bullish outlook.
2. Reaffirmed Strong Financial Outlook and Revenue Growth.
The company consistently reaffirmed its positive financial outlook and demonstrated strong revenue growth. On December 1, 2025, PDF Solutions reaffirmed its 2025 financial outlook, including its prior guidance for 21-23% annual revenue growth. The outlook for 2025 was further bolstered by anticipated growth in Analytics revenue, predominantly from the Exensio analytics platform, which was expected to contribute 93% of the total revenue for the year and support the full-year organic revenue growth forecast of around 21%. Earlier, on November 7, 2025, the company reported record Q3 2025 revenues, and its quarterly earnings on November 9, 2025, met consensus estimates with revenue of $57.12 million against a consensus of $56.69 million.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.4% change in PDFS stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.13 | 29.25 | 0.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 196 | 207 | 5.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.8 | 5.6 | -3.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 39 | 40 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PDFS | 0.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 54.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | -5.5% | 64.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.6% change in PDFS stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.23 | 29.25 | 31.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 186 | 207 | 11.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.7 | 5.6 | 19.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 39 | 40 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PDFS | 31.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.4% | 44.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 8.3% | 49.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.0% change in PDFS stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.86 | 29.25 | 5.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 171 | 207 | 21.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.3 | 5.6 | -11.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 39 | 40 | -2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PDFS | 5.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 54.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 23.7% | 58.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.0% change in PDFS stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -34.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.78 | 29.25 | -8.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 138 | 207 | 49.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 8.6 | 5.6 | -34.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 37 | 40 | -5.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PDFS | -8.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 54.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 113.3% | 58.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PDFS Return | 47% | -10% | 13% | -16% | 5% | 9% | 45% |
| Peers Return | 61% | -34% | 59% | 5% | 66% | 27% | 273% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 86% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PDFS Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 40% | 65% | 50% | 60% | 90% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PDFS Max Drawdown | -23% | -39% | -7% | -16% | -39% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -51% | -3% | -9% | -24% | 0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: Q, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, TER.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PDFS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -67.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 205.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 645 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -93.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1427.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,408 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to Q, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, TER
In The Past
PDF Solutions's stock fell -44.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/10/2023. A -44.5% loss requires a 80.3% gain to breakeven.
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About PDF Solutions (PDFS)
PDF Solutions, Inc. provides proprietary software and physical intellectual property products for integrated circuit designs, electrical measurement hardware tools, proven methodologies, and professional services in the United States, China, Japan, Taiwan, and internationally. The company offers Exensio software products, such as Manufacturing Analytics that stores collected data in a common environment with a consistent view for enabling product engineers to identify and analyze production yield, performance, reliability, and other issues; Process Control that provides failure detection and classification capabilities for monitoring, alarming, and controlling manufacturing tool sets; Test Operations that offers data collection and analysis capabilities; and Assembly Operations that provides device manufacturers with the capability to link assembly and packaging data, including fabrication and characterization data over the product life cycle. It also provides design-for-inspection (DFI) Systems, such as DFI on-chip instruments; eProbe non-contactless E-beam tool; and Characterization Vehicle (CV) system, which includes CV test chips and pdFasTest electrical testers, as well as Exensio characterization software, designed to analyze the measurements collected from DFI on-chip instruments using the eProbe tool. In addition, the company offers Cimetrix software products that enables equipment manufacturers to provide industry standard interfaces on their products; and software-as-a-service, software related services, and characterization services. It sells its technologies and services through direct sales force, service teams, and strategic alliances to integrated device manufacturers, fabless semiconductor companies, foundries, equipment manufacturers, electronics manufacturing suppliers, original device manufacturers, out-sourced semiconductor assembly and test, and system houses. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
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1. KLA for the software and data analytics side of semiconductor yield.
2. Palantir for chip factories, helping optimize manufacturing output with complex data analysis.
3. Splunk for semiconductor manufacturing data, turning operational data into actionable insights to boost chip yield.
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Here are the major products and services of PDF Solutions:- Exensio Analytics Platform: A comprehensive software platform delivering manufacturing analytics, yield management, and defectivity solutions to the semiconductor industry.
- Characterization & Test IP: Intellectual property (IP) and test structures used to monitor, characterize, and accelerate yield learning within semiconductor manufacturing processes.
- PDK Development & Optimization Services: Specialized services focused on creating and refining Process Design Kits (PDKs) to ensure accurate design-to-manufacturing translation for chip designers.
- Yield Management & Manufacturing Services: Expert consulting, implementation, and support services aimed at optimizing semiconductor manufacturing processes and improving overall product yield.
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PDF Solutions (PDFS) - Major Customers
PDF Solutions (symbol: PDFS) primarily sells its data analytics, process control, and design-for-yield solutions to other companies within the global semiconductor industry. The company generally does not publicly disclose the names of its specific major customers due to confidentiality agreements. Its annual reports often indicate a diversified customer base across the semiconductor ecosystem, with no single customer typically accounting for a significant portion (e.g., 10% or more) of its total revenues.
Based on their business model and target market, PDF Solutions serves a broad range of leading companies across key segments of the semiconductor value chain. These customer categories and prominent examples within them include:
- Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs): These are companies that design, manufacture, and sell their own chips.
- Intel Corporation (INTC)
- Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)
- Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)
- Foundries: These companies specialize in manufacturing integrated circuits for other fabless semiconductor companies.
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)
- GlobalFoundries Inc. (GFS)
- United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC)
- Fabless Semiconductor Companies: These companies design and market integrated circuits but outsource the manufacturing to foundries. While PDF Solutions' direct manufacturing-focused tools are primarily used by fabs, their design-for-yield intellectual property and methodologies are adopted by fabless companies to optimize their chip designs for manufacturing processes used by their foundry partners.
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
- Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
- Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
- Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) Companies: These companies provide semiconductor assembly (packaging) and test services.
- ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX)
- Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR)
It is important to note that the companies listed above are prominent examples within each customer category that PDF Solutions targets and works with, rather than an exhaustive list of all specific customers or a definitive list of "major" revenue contributors, which remain confidential.
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- Amazon (AMZN)
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John K. Kibarian, Ph.D. President, Chief Executive Officer, Director, and Co-Founder
Dr. John K. Kibarian co-founded PDF Solutions in 1991, serving as President since its inception and as Chief Executive Officer since July 2000. Prior to founding PDF Solutions, Dr. Kibarian was a researcher at Carnegie Mellon University's SEMATECH Center for Rapid Yield Learning, where he developed algorithms for diagnosing process variations and for yield maximization. He holds a B.S. in Electrical Engineering, and M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in Electrical and Computer Engineering from Carnegie Mellon University. Dr. Kibarian was instrumental in changing PDF Solutions' business model from solely software to a solutions-based approach, introducing the Gain Share model.
Adnan Raza Executive Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer
Adnan Raza joined PDF Solutions in January 2020 as Executive Vice President of Finance and was appointed Chief Financial Officer shortly thereafter. Before joining PDF Solutions, Mr. Raza served as an independent strategy consultant for public and private companies. From 2013 to 2019, he was Senior Vice President of Corporate Development at Synaptics Inc. His career also includes experience in technology investment banking at Goldman, Sachs & Co. and UBS Investment Bank, strategic advising at Blackreef Capital, and engineering and marketing at Azanda Network Devices and Lucent Technologies. Mr. Raza holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Electrical Engineering from Valparaiso University, a Master of Electrical Engineering degree from Cornell University, and an MBA from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
Kimon W. Michaels, Ph.D. Executive VP, Products and Solutions, Director, and Co-Founder
Dr. Kimon W. Michaels co-founded PDF Solutions in 1991 and has been a Director since November 1995. He has served as Vice President of Products and Solutions since July 2010, and previously as Vice President of Design for Manufacturability from June 2007 to June 2010. Dr. Michaels also held various other executive capacities from March 1993 to December 2005 and served as Chief Financial Officer from November 1995 to July 1998. He received a B.S. in Electrical Engineering, an M.S. E.C.E., and a Ph.D. E.C.E. from Carnegie Mellon University.
Andrzej Strojwas, Ph.D. Chief Technology Officer
Dr. Andrzej Strojwas has been a technical advisor to PDF Solutions since its founding and served as chief technologist from 1997 to 2021. In December 2021, he was named Chief Technology Officer. Before joining PDF Solutions, Dr. Strojwas was the Keithley Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University. He has held senior technical positions at various companies including Harris Semiconductor Co., AT&T Bell Labs, Texas Instruments, NEC, Hitachi, SEMATECH, and KLA-Tencor. Dr. Strojwas holds an M.S. in Electronic Engineering from Warsaw Technical University and a Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering from Carnegie Mellon University.
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The key risks to PDF Solutions' business include:
- Customer Concentration: PDF Solutions has historically derived a significant portion of its revenue from a limited number of customers. For example, in 2024, two customers accounted for 31% of total revenues. This concentration makes the company highly vulnerable to the loss of, or a significant reduction in business from, any of these major customers.
- Reliance on Critical Third-Party Software and Ongoing Legal Dispute: The company faces a significant risk due to its reliance on a third-party software provider. In November 2023, a provider of enabling technology, which PDF Solutions had embedded as its exclusive visualization engine (TIBCO's Spitfire) for 15 years, abruptly ceased providing maintenance and support. This led to legal action and increased legal expenses, with the long-term impact on PDF Solutions' business and customers currently unknown.
- Intense Competition and the Need for Continuous Technological Innovation and IP Protection: PDF Solutions operates in the highly competitive semiconductor and electronics industries, which demand continuous technological advancements and data-driven optimization. The company competes with larger entities, specialized firms, and in-house solutions developed by clients. Maintaining its competitive edge relies heavily on its proprietary technologies, software, hardware, and intellectual property. The inability to protect its intellectual property or to continuously innovate and differentiate its offerings could significantly impede its business growth and revenue.
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PDF Solutions (NASDAQ: PDFS) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives and market dynamics:
- Expansion and Increased Adoption of the Exensio Analytics Platform: PDF Solutions consistently highlights its Exensio analytics platform as a core revenue generator. The company has reported record analytics revenues, driven by continued customer engagement and the platform's ability to provide comprehensive data solutions for the semiconductor and electronics ecosystem. The integration of advanced AI capabilities, such as Tiber AI Studio, into the Exensio platform is expected to further enhance its functionality and drive adoption among engineers and data scientists.
- Growth in Customer Base and Market Penetration: PDF Solutions has demonstrated a significant expansion of its customer base, growing from approximately 150 customers in 2020 to over 370 in 2025. This expansion includes securing major players in the equipment industry and multiple cloud providers, indicating a broadening market reach and successful customer acquisition strategies. The company anticipates continued adoption of its solutions by new and existing customers.
- Advancements and Integration of AI and MLOps Capabilities: AI-driven digitization and the development of AI/ModelOps capabilities are consistently cited as critical drivers of customer activity and platform development. PDF Solutions is strategically focusing on enhancing test data management and leveraging AI to enable cost-effective and efficient manufacturing, especially in distributed production environments. This focus on AI is expected to lead to significant revenue contributions from areas like test data feed-forward.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships, such as secureWISE: The acquisition of secureWISE is a notable strategic investment that is expected to contribute to the company's profitability in 2026 and beyond. The company sees opportunities for cross-selling within the broader PDF platform, including the secureWISE offering, which empowers customers to handle complex manufacturing and testing environments.
- Development and Demand for Leading-Edge Solutions, including eProbe: PDF Solutions continues to invest in and see increased customer demand for its specialized hardware tools and leading-edge solutions, such as the eProbe machines. These investments in product development are essential for long-term growth in the technology sector and contribute to the company's ability to empower customers to ramp and control advanced manufacturing processes.
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Share Repurchases
- PDF Solutions adopted a $35.0 million stock repurchase program on April 11, 2022, which expired on April 11, 2024.
- Under the 2022 program, the company repurchased 937,501 shares for an aggregate total price of $24.3 million.
- A new $40.0 million stock repurchase program was adopted on April 15, 2024, for common stock repurchases over two years.
Share Issuance
- For the year ended December 31, 2024, $4.2 million in proceeds were generated from the employee stock purchase plan and exercise of stock options.
- For the year ended December 31, 2023, proceeds from the employee stock purchase plan and exercise of stock options amounted to $4.3 million.
- In 2024, 155,828 shares were issued under the 2021 Purchase Plan at a weighted average price of $26.14 per share, and in 2023, 223,608 shares were issued under the same plan at a weighted average price of $17.14 per share.
Outbound Investments
- PDF Solutions acquired secureWISE, LLC for $130.0 million in cash. This acquisition was announced on February 19, 2025, and completed on March 7, 2025, funded by cash on hand and $70 million in new bank debt.
- The acquisition of Cimetrix was completed in December 2020, with total payments, net of cash acquired, of $31.6 million made in fiscal years 2020 and 2021.
Capital Expenditures
- Purchases and prepayments for property and equipment were $17.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, primarily focused on the DFI system.
- For the year ended December 31, 2023, capital expenditures for property and equipment were $11.3 million, primarily related to DFI and CV systems.
- The company's capital expenditures are generally invested in DFI, CVi, IP, DEX network, and infrastructure.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 256.54 |
| Mkt Cap | 111.4 |
| Rev LTM | 8,705 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,173 |
| FCF LTM | 2,583 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,636 |
| CFO LTM | 2,917 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,963 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 29.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 111.4 |
| P/S | 11.4 |
| P/EBIT | 29.4 |
| P/E | 42.8 |
| P/CFO | 38.9 |
| Total Yield | 2.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 18.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 26.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 66.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 82.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 169.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 17.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 23.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 52.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 67.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 114.1% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $29.25 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/31/2001 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $30.47 | $24.23 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -4.0% | 20.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.4% | 55.5% |
| Downside Capture | 226.50 | 191.20 |
| Upside Capture | 227.23 | 170.14 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 52.8% | 53.8% |
PDFS Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.30 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.06 | 1.53 | 1.63 |
| Up Beta | 1.32 | 0.62 | 2.23 | 3.09 | 1.55 | 1.52 |
| Down Beta | -0.16 | 1.99 | 2.06 | 1.83 | 1.24 | 1.44 |
| Up Capture | 351% | 378% | 280% | 268% | 265% | 527% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 31 | 65 | 126 | 401 |
| Down Capture | 161% | 188% | 194% | 146% | 138% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 18 | 30 | 60 | 123 | 349 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PDFS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDFS | 6.2% | 55.6% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.8% | 27.0% | 0.76 | 58.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 19.2% | 0.63 | 54.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 77.2% | 24.5% | 2.30 | 8.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.0% | 16.5% | 0.40 | 15.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 16.5% | -0.00 | 36.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.4% | 40.3% | -0.56 | 27.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PDFS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDFS | 7.7% | 46.5% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.6% | 24.7% | 0.64 | 57.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.0% | 0.68 | 53.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.5% | 16.8% | 1.04 | 12.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 12.0% | 18.9% | 0.51 | 11.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 31.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 20.9% | 57.5% | 0.56 | 22.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PDFS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDFS | 11.6% | 45.1% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.9% | 24.2% | 0.86 | 53.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 51.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.6% | 15.5% | 0.84 | 8.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 16.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.8% | 0.24 | 33.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 69.9% | 66.5% | 1.09 | 15.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -3.8% | -8.5% | 15.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | -11.0% | -13.9% | -10.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | -6.1% | 4.5% | 0.2% |
| 2/13/2025 | -18.2% | -18.1% | -22.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | 3.2% | -3.2% | -4.0% |
| 8/8/2024 | 2.8% | 10.0% | -6.6% |
| 5/9/2024 | 4.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% |
| 2/15/2024 | 0.3% | -4.0% | -5.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 7.3% | 15.0% |
| Median Negative | -8.6% | -11.0% | -10.4% |
| Max Positive | 26.1% | 31.6% | 23.4% |
| Max Negative | -18.2% | -19.3% | -47.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/01/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gustafson, Michael B | Direct | Buy | 5142025 | 19.45 | 7,500 | 145,875 | 584,939 | Form | |
| 2 | Gustafson, Michael B | Direct | Buy | 2252025 | 23.06 | 4,000 | 92,240 | 520,556 | Form | |
| 3 | Kibarian, John Kachig | PRESIDENT AND CEO | Trust | Buy | 2252025 | 22.80 | 34,356 | 783,317 | 57,162,154 | Form |
| 4 | Kibarian, John Kachig | PRESIDENT AND CEO | Trust | Buy | 2252025 | 22.11 | 15,644 | 345,889 | 55,778,135 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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