Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -33%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Vaccine Development, Show more.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -812 Mil
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -33%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Vaccine Development, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71%
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -812 Mil
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PCVX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. 1. Advancement of VAX-31 to Phase 3 Trials and Expanded Breakthrough Therapy Designation

Vaxcyte initiated the OPUS Phase 3 pivotal trial in December 2025, dosing the first participants to evaluate VAX-31 for the prevention of invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia in adults. This significant step follows the FDA's expansion of VAX-31's Breakthrough Therapy Designation in May 2025 to include pneumonia prevention, a decision based on positive results from its Phase 1/2 study, indicating potential substantial improvement over existing therapies. 2. 2. Positive Final Data from VAX-24 Infant Phase 2 Study

In November 2025, Vaxcyte announced final positive data from its VAX-24 infant Phase 2 dose-finding study, which confirmed earlier interim results. VAX-24, a 24-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) candidate, aims to cover more serotypes than currently available infant PCVs. 3.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PCVX Return-10%102%31%30%-46%
Peers Return621%91%-21%-21%-2%-11%647%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PCVX Win Rate33%33%67%50%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate52%58%45%37%35%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PCVX Max Drawdown-38%-27%-28%-5%-66% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-4%-45%-36%-27%-30% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PFE, MRK, MRNA, NVAX, DVAX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPCVXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-43.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven77.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven532 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-52.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven108.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1070 days148 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI


In The Past

Vaxcyte's stock fell -43.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/6/2021. A -43.6% loss requires a 77.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Vaxcyte (PCVX)

Better Bets than Vaxcyte (PCVX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PCVX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Vaxcyte

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PCVXPFEMRKMRNANVAXDVAXMedian
NameVaxcyte Pfizer Merck Moderna Novavax Dynavax . 
Mkt Price44.5025.85100.3029.466.5710.8027.66
Mkt Cap6.1147.0250.211.51.11.38.8
Rev LTM062,78664,2352,2021,0243311,613
Op Inc LTM-81215,41722,391-3,46340521213
FCF LTM-62110,37613,049-2,663-38581-152
FCF 3Y Avg-4958,92713,685-3,092-40874-167
CFO LTM-54213,07717,065-1,978-37891-144
CFO 3Y Avg-41512,12717,506-2,421-37580-147

Growth & Margins

PCVXPFEMRKMRNANVAXDVAXMedian
NameVaxcyte Pfizer Merck Moderna Novavax Dynavax . 
Rev Chg LTM-3.9%1.7%-56.4%20.9%26.7%3.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--13.2%2.9%-52.3%14.1%-17.3%-13.2%
Rev Chg Q--5.9%3.7%-46.0%-16.6%17.7%-5.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM--1.6%1.0%-27.9%-1.4%4.5%-1.4%
Op Mgn LTM-24.6%34.9%-157.3%39.5%6.5%24.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-19.4%23.7%-79.9%-27.4%5.0%5.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--1.4%3.7%-50.1%5.6%3.2%3.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-20.8%26.6%-89.8%-36.9%27.4%20.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-18.9%28.2%-58.7%-45.9%23.9%18.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-16.5%20.3%-120.9%-37.6%24.4%16.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-13.9%22.0%-76.1%-50.2%21.9%13.9%

Valuation

PCVXPFEMRKMRNANVAXDVAXMedian
NameVaxcyte Pfizer Merck Moderna Novavax Dynavax . 
Mkt Cap6.1147.0250.211.51.11.38.8
P/S-2.33.34.61.43.53.3
P/EBIT-6.912.29.1-3.23.8-34.40.3
P/E-7.514.711.0-3.24.1-26.80.4
P/CFO-9.011.112.3-5.1-3.712.93.7
Total Yield-13.4%13.5%13.0%-30.9%24.3%-3.7%4.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%6.7%3.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-7.3%5.5%5.5%-16.2%-43.3%4.9%-1.2%
D/E0.00.40.20.10.20.20.2
Net D/E-0.30.30.1-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3

Returns

PCVXPFEMRKMRNANVAXDVAXMedian
NameVaxcyte Pfizer Merck Moderna Novavax Dynavax . 
1M Rtn-8.6%3.2%7.9%18.9%-5.7%-2.4%0.4%
3M Rtn38.3%10.2%21.1%25.3%-17.7%14.8%17.9%
6M Rtn28.8%9.0%25.2%10.5%-5.3%5.2%9.8%
12M Rtn-49.3%8.4%2.0%-29.6%-27.9%-16.7%-22.3%
3Y Rtn-2.2%-42.6%-0.6%-85.8%-42.0%-3.1%-22.6%
1M Excs Rtn-3.1%0.3%10.0%10.6%-8.4%-3.7%-1.4%
3M Excs Rtn40.3%6.5%20.6%20.2%-21.9%12.2%16.2%
6M Excs Rtn14.5%-5.2%11.0%-3.8%-19.6%-9.1%-4.5%
12M Excs Rtn-63.9%-4.7%-10.1%-42.2%-38.2%-29.1%-33.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-70.6%-112.3%-73.9%-157.1%-135.4%-79.9%-96.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment1,4081,00632439366
Total1,4081,00632439366


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,301,208
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202510.3%
Average Daily Volume1,342,585
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.67
Basic Shares Quantity136,196,512
Short % of Basic Shares7.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-2.5%10.4%12.4%
8/6/2025-9.1%-4.4%0.1%
5/7/20258.4%1.4%27.6%
2/25/2025-0.9%-11.5%-13.6%
11/5/2024-3.2%-7.6%-16.3%
8/6/2024-4.6%4.5%51.6%
5/8/2024-1.8%7.2%6.3%
2/27/2024-7.3%-11.8%-15.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111011
# Negative101110
Median Positive4.1%3.0%6.3%
Median Negative-3.6%-5.3%-12.6%
Max Positive14.6%25.2%51.6%
Max Negative-17.9%-11.8%-16.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021