Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, Dividend Yield is 4.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 135%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Healthcare Real Estate. Themes include Post-Acute Care Real Estate.
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 208%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 108%
2  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5%
3  Short seller report
Hindenburg Research report on 11/4/2024.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, Dividend Yield is 4.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Healthcare Real Estate. Themes include Post-Acute Care Real Estate.
2 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 135%
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 208%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 108%
4 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5%
5 Short seller report
Hindenburg Research report on 11/4/2024.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PACS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of PACS (symbol: PACS) experienced significant movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by a series of financial and operational developments.

1. Delayed and Subsequent Filing of Q3 2025 Financial Results and SEC Reports: PACS Group announced on November 17, 2025, its intention to release its third-quarter 2025 financial results and file all outstanding annual and quarterly reports through September 30, 2025, with the SEC by November 19, 2025. This commitment to address a backlog in regulatory filings, including a previously delayed Form 10-Q for Q3 2025 due to an ongoing Audit Committee investigation and the need to restate prior financial statements, instilled renewed investor confidence and led to a dramatic surge in the stock price. The company had received an extension from the NYSE until November 19, 2025, to regain compliance with listing standards.

2. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance: On November 19, 2025, PACS Group reported robust third-quarter 2025 results. The company's total revenue for the quarter reached $1.34 billion, marking a 31% increase year-over-year from $1.02 billion in Q3 2024. Net income attributable to PACS Group also saw a substantial rise to $52.4 million, up from $15.6 million in the prior year. Operating income increased to $86.3 million, and cash and cash equivalents rose significantly to $355.7 million from $157.7 million at the end of 2024. The company also provided a strong full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $5.25 billion to $5.35 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $480 million to $490 million.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PACS Return-----140%140%
Peers Return13%36%-0%14%10%23%135%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PACS Win Rate----62%50% 
Peers Win Rate42%53%42%43%42%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PACS Max Drawdown------41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-5%-28%-8%-11%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACHC, SRTA, HCA, THC, UHS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

PACS has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1100 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About PACS (PACS)

Better Bets than PACS (PACS)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PACS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for PACS

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PACSACHCSRTAHCATHCUHSMedian
NamePACS Acadia H.Strata C.HCA Heal.Tenet He.Universa. 
Mkt Price31.3414.694.44486.77211.34230.15121.34
Mkt Cap4.71.3-116.418.614.514.5
Rev LTM3,3863,26625472,69820,84616,99310,189
Op Inc LTM190444-2411,0783,3471,9491,197
FCF LTM-118-347-207,2921,502950465
FCF 3Y Avg--252-325,7041,678773773
CFO LTM152335111,9352,4781,9481,142
CFO 3Y Avg-308-1810,4512,5501,6411,641

Growth & Margins

PACSACHCSRTAHCATHCUHSMedian
NamePACS Acadia H.Strata C.HCA Heal.Tenet He.Universa. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.6%6.7%6.4%-0.6%10.2%6.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-9.0%36.5%6.6%3.1%8.7%8.7%
Rev Chg Q-4.4%4.2%6.4%3.2%13.4%4.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.1%1.1%1.6%0.8%3.2%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM5.6%13.6%-9.6%15.2%16.1%11.5%12.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-16.2%-22.0%15.0%13.8%9.8%13.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--1.0%3.0%0.1%0.4%0.5%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM4.5%10.3%0.5%16.4%11.9%11.5%10.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-10.2%-8.9%15.4%12.3%10.5%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-3.5%-10.6%-7.7%10.0%7.2%5.6%1.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--7.8%-14.6%8.4%8.1%4.9%4.9%

Valuation

PACSACHCSRTAHCATHCUHSMedian
NamePACS Acadia H.Strata C.HCA Heal.Tenet He.Universa. 
Mkt Cap4.71.3-116.418.614.514.5
P/S0.60.7-1.40.90.80.8
P/EBIT10.18.2-9.35.06.58.2
P/E19.920.9-17.113.29.417.1
P/CFO12.76.7-8.57.26.67.2
Total Yield9.0%4.8%-6.5%7.6%11.1%7.6%
Dividend Yield4.0%0.0%-0.7%0.0%0.4%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--7.6%-6.4%13.5%6.1%6.2%
D/E1.41.1-0.50.70.40.7
Net D/E1.31.0-0.40.60.40.6

Returns

PACSACHCSRTAHCATHCUHSMedian
NamePACS Acadia H.Strata C.HCA Heal.Tenet He.Universa. 
1M Rtn165.8%-31.1%-12.9%5.5%4.9%4.4%4.7%
3M Rtn184.9%-37.0%7.0%19.6%13.1%26.9%16.4%
6M Rtn208.2%-35.0%-28.0%24.4%22.2%24.4%
12M Rtn108.2%-65.2%-50.0%49.6%16.5%49.6%
3Y Rtn--83.2%-108.8%366.7%80.5%94.6%
1M Excs Rtn165.9%-31.0%-12.9%5.5%5.0%4.4%4.7%
3M Excs Rtn173.7%-43.2%0.9%13.1%4.4%18.7%8.8%
6M Excs Rtn193.4%-49.7%-13.3%9.7%7.5%9.7%
12M Excs Rtn84.7%-77.4%-36.4%34.6%-0.7%34.6%
3Y Excs Rtn--155.4%-40.2%302.5%8.2%24.2%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,357,277
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120257.0%
Average Daily Volume640,162
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.24
Basic Shares Quantity149,463,655
Short % of Basic Shares2.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302024812202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024513202410-Q 3/31/2024
123120234122024424B4 12/31/2023