PACS (PACS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $31.26 | Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities
PACS (PACS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $31.26Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Facilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, Dividend Yield is 4.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 135% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Healthcare Real Estate. Themes include Post-Acute Care Real Estate. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 208%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 108% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5% | |
| Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 11/4/2024. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, Dividend Yield is 4.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Healthcare Real Estate. Themes include Post-Acute Care Real Estate. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 135% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 208%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 108% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5% |
| Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 11/4/2024. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PACS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of PACS (symbol: PACS) experienced significant movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by a series of financial and operational developments.
1. Delayed and Subsequent Filing of Q3 2025 Financial Results and SEC Reports: PACS Group announced on November 17, 2025, its intention to release its third-quarter 2025 financial results and file all outstanding annual and quarterly reports through September 30, 2025, with the SEC by November 19, 2025. This commitment to address a backlog in regulatory filings, including a previously delayed Form 10-Q for Q3 2025 due to an ongoing Audit Committee investigation and the need to restate prior financial statements, instilled renewed investor confidence and led to a dramatic surge in the stock price. The company had received an extension from the NYSE until November 19, 2025, to regain compliance with listing standards.
2. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance: On November 19, 2025, PACS Group reported robust third-quarter 2025 results. The company's total revenue for the quarter reached $1.34 billion, marking a 31% increase year-over-year from $1.02 billion in Q3 2024. Net income attributable to PACS Group also saw a substantial rise to $52.4 million, up from $15.6 million in the prior year. Operating income increased to $86.3 million, and cash and cash equivalents rose significantly to $355.7 million from $157.7 million at the end of 2024. The company also provided a strong full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $5.25 billion to $5.35 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $480 million to $490 million.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PACS Return | - | - | - | - | - | 140% | 140% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 36% | -0% | 14% | 10% | 23% | 135% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PACS Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 62% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 53% | 42% | 43% | 42% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PACS Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -5% | -28% | -8% | -11% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACHC, SRTA, HCA, THC, UHS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
PACS has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1100 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| PACS Stock Surges 132%, With A 7-Day Winning Spree | Notification | |
| PACS Stock Rockets 123% With 6-Day Winning Streak | Notification | |
| PACS Stock On Fire: Up 120% With 5-Day Winning Streak | Notification | |
| With PACS Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PACS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PACS
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 121.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.5 |
| Rev LTM | 10,189 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,197 |
| FCF LTM | 465 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 773 |
| CFO LTM | 1,142 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,641 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.5 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 8.2 |
| P/E | 17.1 |
| P/CFO | 7.2 |
| Total Yield | 7.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 49.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 94.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 34.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 24.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302024 | 8122024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4122024 | 424B4 12/31/2023 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |