PACS (PACS)
Market Price (1/23/2026): $35.07 | Market Cap: $5.5 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities
PACS (PACS)
Market Price (1/23/2026): $35.07Market Cap: $5.5 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Facilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -20% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 57% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Healthcare Real Estate. Themes include Post-Acute Care Real Estate. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 207%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 149% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 140% | ||
| Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 11/4/2024. | ||
| Key risksPACS key risks include [1] potential NYSE delisting stemming from its failure to timely file financial reports and a necessary accounting restatement, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Healthcare Real Estate. Themes include Post-Acute Care Real Estate. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -20% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 57% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 207%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 149% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 140% |
| Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 11/4/2024. |
| Key risksPACS key risks include [1] potential NYSE delisting stemming from its failure to timely file financial reports and a necessary accounting restatement, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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PACS (PACS) stock has gained about 155% since 9/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Resolution of SEC Filing Delays and Internal Investigation
PACS Group announced its commitment on November 17, 2025, to file all outstanding annual and quarterly reports, including its third-quarter 2025 financial results, by November 19, 2025, which significantly boosted investor confidence and market valuation. This declaration followed a period of regulatory challenges and an internal investigation, with the company successfully becoming current with its SEC filing obligations and completing a restatement of financial statements. This proactive measure led to an immediate surge in the stock price, climbing 30% on November 17, 2025.
2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results
The company reported robust financial performance for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, with revenue increasing to $1.34 billion, a 31% rise compared to the previous year. Net income attributable to PACS Group also saw a substantial increase to $52.4 million, up from $15.6 million in the third quarter of 2024. The improved financial metrics, including a more than doubled cash and cash equivalents position since the end of 2024, underscored the company's operational strengths and strategic effectiveness.
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1. Resolution of SEC Filing Delays and Internal Investigation
PACS Group announced its commitment on November 17, 2025, to file all outstanding annual and quarterly reports, including its third-quarter 2025 financial results, by November 19, 2025, which significantly boosted investor confidence and market valuation. This declaration followed a period of regulatory challenges and an internal investigation, with the company successfully becoming current with its SEC filing obligations and completing a restatement of financial statements. This proactive measure led to an immediate surge in the stock price, climbing 30% on November 17, 2025.
2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results
The company reported robust financial performance for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, with revenue increasing to $1.34 billion, a 31% rise compared to the previous year. Net income attributable to PACS Group also saw a substantial increase to $52.4 million, up from $15.6 million in the third quarter of 2024. The improved financial metrics, including a more than doubled cash and cash equivalents position since the end of 2024, underscored the company's operational strengths and strategic effectiveness.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 155.9% change in PACS stock from 9/30/2025 to 1/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 1222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.73 | 35.14 | 155.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 214 | 129 | 66.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 1/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PACS | 155.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.4% | -10.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.7% | -2.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 172.0% change in PACS stock from 6/30/2025 to 1/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 1222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.92 | 35.14 | 172.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 214 | 129 | 66.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 1/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PACS | 172.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.8% | -1.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 18.0% | 7.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 168.0% change in PACS stock from 12/31/2024 to 1/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312024 | 1222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.11 | 35.14 | 168.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 214 | 129 | 66.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2024 to 1/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PACS | 168.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 18.6% | 13.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.6% | 15.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/31/2022 to 1/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PACS | ||
| Market (SPY) | 86.9% | 12.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 21.9% | 18.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PACS Return | - | - | - | -43% | 193% | -6% | 57% |
| Peers Return | 12% | -15% | 64% | 8% | 59% | 8% | 192% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 0% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PACS Win Rate | - | - | - | 67% | 58% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 47% | 64% | 53% | 67% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PACS Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -44% | -41% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -11% | -7% | -12% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ENSG, BKD, NHC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
PACS has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,100 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ENSG, BKD, NHC
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
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We are a leading post-acute healthcare company primarily focused on delivering high-quality skilled nursing care through a portfolio of independently operated facilities. Founded in 2013, we are one of the largest skilled nursing providers in the United States based on number of facilities, with over 200 post-acute care facilities across nine states serving over 20,000 patients daily. We also provide senior care, assisted living, and independent living options in some of our communities. Our significant historical growth has been primarily driven by our expertise in acquiring underperforming long-term custodial care skilled nursing facilities and transforming them into higher acuity, high value-add short-term transitional care skilled nursing facilities. We believe our success is driven in significant part by our decentralized, local operating model, through which we empower local leaders at each facility to operate their facility autonomously and deliver excellence in clinical quality and a superior experience for our patients. We provide our independently operated facilities with a comprehensive suite of technology, support, and back-office services that allow local leadership teams to focus more of their time and effort on providing quality care to patients. We believe our operating model delivers value to all of our healthcare stakeholders, including patients and families, referring providers, payors, and administrators and clinicians. The post-acute care ecosystem serves individuals who need additional help recuperating from acute conditions, illnesses, or serious medical procedures after they have been discharged from the hospital. This ecosystem ranges from higher acuity, higher-cost settings, such as long-term acute care hospitals and inpatient rehabilitation facilities, to lower acuity, lower-cost settings, such as assisted living facilities, and home health. Skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) are positioned at the center of this ecosystem and play an essential role in providing cost efficient facility-based care to patients that have been discharged from hospitals but still require 24-hour in-patient services. SNFs can provide both long-term custodial care and higher value short-term transitional care. The SNF industry is large and growing, with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) expecting total industry expenditures to increase from $193.6 billion in 2022 to $283.3 billion in 2031, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3%. Based on the number of facilities as reported by CMS, we are one of the largest SNF operators in the United States. We are primarily focused on providing higher value short-term transitional care and believe we are uniquely positioned to capitalize on the current underlying trends within the SNF industry and to capture a growing portion of the expected demand. We believe that healthcare is local and we operate through a decentralized model, recognizing that each patient, facility, and community is unique. To that end, we believe that our local leaders and employees understand the distinct needs and priorities of their patients, staff, and facilities and are best positioned to make clinical and operational decisions in order to optimize patient outcomes and experience. To facilitate this, each of our facilities operates independently, led by a facility administrator and his or her interdisciplinary team of medical directors, nurses, therapists, specialty consultants, and operators. To assist these local teams in achieving their best clinical and operating potential, we provide each facility with access to PACS Services. PACS Services is a comprehensive suite of offerings, including accounting, finance, human resources, payroll, accounts receivable and payable, legal, and risk management services, as well as a robust suite of technology tools. We operate in a highly regulated industry with stringent regulatory compliance obligations, which requires robust regulatory compliance operations. Failure to operate in compliance with applicable laws and regulations could require significant expenditures and result in regulatory deficiencies and other regulatory penalties. PACS Services functions to support our regulatory compliance obligations across our organization, including through controlled billing and cost reporting practices and legal, risk management, and compliance support. PACS Services also provides teams of regional professionals available as resources to each facility, including a regional vice president (RVP) and regional clinical and non-clinical directors and consultants. We developed PACS Services to be a resource to help reduce administrative burden so that local leadership teams can focus on making decisions that improve the care, well-being, and quality of life of their patients. We believe that talented local leadership is critical to the success of our model of independently operated, centrally supported facilities. At the facility level, administrators are effectively the chief executive officers, and together with other local licensed professionals, are ultimately responsible for the operations of their respective facilities. We seek to recruit, train, and reward dynamic administrators for our facilities, and rely on them to work with their interdisciplinary teams to implement policies and procedures that are appropriate and effective and result in positive outcomes. We support the delivery of excellent care by building excellent teams. We believe our model attracts high caliber, entrepreneurial professionals who value having considerable autonomy, accountability, and aligned incentives. We provide these professionals with leadership and industry training, guidance, and operational support. Our model is intended to align local leaders’ incentives with facility and organizational success, encouraging them to dedicate themselves to the long-term future of their facilities. To create such alignment, we have developed an administrator compensation structure that prioritizes quality of care and operational and financial performance. Our administrators understand that a well-performing facility is the result of providing quality care in an environment of healing and caring, and one that is appropriately staffed, supplied, and equipped to meet the needs of its patients. This dedicated focus by our administrators and their local teams on patient outcomes drives demand for our services and can ultimately result in higher patient census and profitability. We also seek to provide opportunities for upward career mobility, with many of our administrators being promoted from within our company to roles of increasing levels of responsibility. Our culture of meritocracy and pride of ownership has helped us retain experienced facility administrators as well as RVPs who had average industry experience of 12.1 years, as of December 31, 2023. For the year ended December 31, 2023, we had a voluntary turnover rate of 3.1% among our facility administrators. Excellence in clinical quality and experience for our patients is at the forefront of our mission. We believe our focus on quality is reflected in our CMS Quality Measures (QM) Star rating, occupancy rate, and skilled mix by nursing patient days (which refers to the number of days our Medicare and managed care patients receive skilled nursing services at SNFs as a percentage of the total number of days that patients from all payor sources receive skilled nursing services at SNFs for any given period). The QM Star rating is a number between 1 and 5 that is assigned to SNFs that participate in Medicare or Medicaid, and is based on an aggregate score across a range of quality reporting program requirements. As of December 31, 2023, our average QM Star rating across all our facilities was 4.1 Stars, compared to the industry average of 3.6 Stars. For the years ended December 31, 2023, 2022 and 2021, our average occupancy rate across our Mature facilities, which we define as facilities purchased more than 36 months prior to the measurement date, was 93%, 92%, and 88%, respectively, compared to the industry average of 76%, 74% and 71%. For the year ended December 31, 2023, our skilled mix by nursing patient days was 32%. We have historically grown primarily through our disciplined and balanced acquisition strategy. We aim to create value by identifying and acquiring underperforming custodial care facilities and converting them into higher-value short-term transitional care facilities by investing in clinical teams and processes and upgrading technology, equipment, training, staffing, aesthetics, and other aspects of the business. The resources and guidance offered by PACS Services is key to rapid integration of new facilities and provides our local leadership teams with an effective technology infrastructure, support tools, and regional support teams that allow local leadership to focus on operational improvements. Our facilities generally undergo an up to three-year post-acquisition transition period. During this period, we seek to implement best practices designed to realize and sustain the facility’s full potential. These practices often result in significant improvements to clinical quality and other operational metrics, including skilled mix, occupancy rates and payor contracting. We believe the results of our acquisition strategy are demonstrated by our high average QM Star rating and occupancy rate for Mature facilities of 4.2 and 93%, respectively, as of December 31, 2023. As of December 31, 2023, the average QM Star rating and occupancy rate for New facilities, which we define as facilities purchased less than 18 months prior to the measurement date, was 3.9 and 87%, respectively. Our portfolio of owned and leased properties is strategically located in nine states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. We anticipate that available acquisition opportunities will enable us to further penetrate our reach into these nine states and to enter new states in the future. We believe our current markets are attractive and that the states in which we operate each has unique benefits, such as favorable reimbursement dynamics, high barriers to entry, or population growth of adults aged 65 and older, which is our primary patient demographic. We generally look for similar attributes in new markets that we enter. As of December 31, 2023, we leased 165 facilities, directly owned the real estate at 29 facilities, and owned partial interests in an additional 14 facilities through joint ventures managed by third parties. As we continue to grow, we intend to explore additional purchases of real-estate assets, through purchase options or right-of-first refusals in existing leases, as well as acquisitions and de novo construction of purpose-built facilities. For the year ended December 31, 2023, we generated total revenue of $3.1 billion, representing a CAGR of 63.3% over the last three years. A substantial portion of our revenue is generated from payments from third-party payors, including Medicare and Medicaid, which represent our largest sources of revenue and accounted for 38.6% and 37.6% of our routine revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, respectively. For the year ended December 31, 2022, we generated revenue of $2.4 billion, and Medicare and Medicaid accounted for 47.6% and 30.2% of our total revenue, respectively. For the year ended December 31, 2023, we generated total net income of $112.9 million, total operating expense of $2.9 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $237.5 million, representing a CAGR of 53.4%, 63.7%, and 51.1%, respectively, over the last three years. For the year ended December 31, 2022, our total operating expenses were $2.2 billion, and we generated net income of $150.5 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $255.5 million. As of December 31, 2023, we had total long-term liabilities of $3.0 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. --- We were initially incorporated on December 17, 2012 as Providence Group, Inc., a California corporation. On June 30, 2023, we undertook a reorganization in connection with our entry into a new credit agreement. Pursuant to this reorganization, PACS Group, Inc., which was incorporated on March 24, 2023 as a Delaware corporation, became the parent entity for our organization. --- PACS Group, Inc. is a holding company with operating subsidiaries that provide skilled nursing, senior living, as well as other ancillary businesses. Each facility is structured as an operating subsidiary under one of our two subsidiary holding companies: Providence Group, Inc. and Providence Group NH, LLC. Subsidiaries of Providence Group, Inc. are currently operating subsidiaries (facilities) with mortgage loans insured by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Affairs. Subsidiaries of Providence Group NH, LLC are currently operating subsidiaries (facilities) without such mortgage loans. PACS Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries that are not licensed healthcare providers do not provide healthcare services to patients, residents or any other person, and do not direct or control the provision of services provided. All healthcare services are provided solely by applicable subsidiaries that are licensed healthcare providers, under the direction and control of licensed healthcare professionals in accordance with applicable law. Our principal executive offices are located at 262 N. University Ave, Farmington, Utah.
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Here are a few brief analogies to describe PACS:
- HCA Healthcare for post-acute care: Think of PACS like a major hospital chain such as HCA Healthcare, but focused specifically on operating skilled nursing and assisted living facilities.
- Brookdale Senior Living for a broader range of post-acute care: Similar to Brookdale Senior Living, a large operator of senior living communities, but with a significant emphasis on skilled nursing and rehabilitation alongside assisted living.
- The Marriott or Hilton of skilled nursing and assisted living facilities: Like a major hotel chain that operates numerous properties, PACS manages a large network of skilled nursing and assisted living centers providing specialized care.
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- Skilled Nursing Facility Services: Provides comprehensive medical, nursing, and rehabilitative care for patients recovering from acute illnesses or injuries.
- Assisted Living Facility Services: Offers residential housing and personal care support for individuals who require assistance with daily living activities.
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PACS Group, Inc. (symbol: PACS) primarily sells its services directly to individuals.
The company operates skilled nursing facilities and assisted living facilities, serving a diverse range of residents and patients. The major categories of individual customers it serves include:
- Seniors and Elderly Individuals: These customers seek long-term care, assistance with daily living activities, personal care, and social engagement in an assisted living or skilled nursing setting.
- Individuals Requiring Post-Acute Rehabilitation: This category includes patients who need short-term skilled nursing care, physical therapy, occupational therapy, or speech therapy following a hospital stay, surgery, illness, or injury, with the goal of returning home or to a lower level of care.
- Individuals with Chronic Conditions or Complex Medical Needs: These customers require ongoing specialized medical care, memory care (for conditions like Alzheimer's or dementia), or comprehensive support for managing chronic health issues that necessitate a higher level of supervision and care than can be provided at home.
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Jason Murray, Co-Founder, CEO and Chairman
Jason Murray is a co-founder of PACS Group, Inc. and has served as CEO and Chairman since January 2013. He possesses over 20 years of experience as an executive in acute and post-acute healthcare settings and is a licensed nursing home administrator. Under his leadership, PACS Group has grown into a national platform with 315 post-acute facilities across 17 states. He was named the 2023 Mountain West Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young. Murray co-founded PACS with Mark Hancock in 2013.
Mark Hancock, Co-Founder, Executive Vice Chairman, and Interim Chief Financial Officer
Mark Hancock is a co-founder of PACS Group, Inc. and serves as the Executive Vice Chairman and interim Chief Financial Officer, having been appointed interim CFO in September 2025 following Derick Apt's resignation. He previously held the CFO position since co-founding PACS in 2013. Hancock brings over 20 years of experience as a finance professional and has also worked as a licensed nursing home administrator in Utah, California, and Kentucky. Before co-founding PACS, he worked for Fortune 500 companies in the auto and steel industries and served as the treasurer for a $20 billion financial services company. He was recognized as a 2023 Mountain West Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young. Hancock played a pivotal role in growing PACS from a two-facility organization to one of the largest skilled nursing companies with over 200 facilities.
Josh Jergensen, President and Chief Operating Officer
Josh Jergensen is the President and Chief Operating Officer at PACS Group, Inc. He has been with PACS since its inception 11 years ago and has been instrumental in the company's growth from two facilities to over 275. Jergensen has more than 10 years of experience operating complex multi-story skilled nursing facilities and is a licensed nursing home administrator and approved preceptor in California. Since 2014, he has provided operational support to all facilities within the PACS portfolio.
Michelle Lewis, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer
Michelle Lewis has served as PACS Group's Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer since January 2023. She joined the company in July 2018 and has held various roles of increasing responsibility, including Controller. A licensed Certified Public Accountant, Ms. Lewis previously owned and operated Michelle Lewis Accounting Services, PLLC, a certified public accounting firm, and also provided controller functions at a privately held healthcare organization from January 2008 to May 2015.
John Mitchell, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
As Chief Legal Officer and Secretary, John Mitchell manages PACS Group’s legal department. Prior to joining PACS in 2017, he served as Vice President, Legal at HCP, a NYSE-traded healthcare-focused real estate investment trust, and as Senior Vice President, Legal, and Chief Compliance Officer at Skilled Healthcare Group, a NYSE-traded skilled nursing company. He began his career at an international law firm, focusing on corporate, finance, and mergers and acquisitions.
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The key risks to PACS (symbol: PACS) are as follows:
- Regulatory Scrutiny, Financial Reporting Irregularities, and Delisting Risk: PACS faces a significant risk of delisting from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) due to its failure to timely file multiple financial reports, including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2024 and several Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. This stems from an ongoing federal investigation into the company's billing practices and an internal audit, which has necessitated an accounting restatement of prior interim financial statements and identified material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting. The company has stated there are "no assurances" it will meet the deadlines to avoid potential delisting.
- Significant Debt Load and Dependence on Credit Facilities: As of December 31, 2024, PACS carries $3.5 billion in long-term liabilities and relies heavily on its Amended and Restated 2023 Credit Facility. The company needs to reach an agreement by the end of a forbearance period under this facility, highlighting substantial refinancing and covenant risks, particularly in light of its ongoing financial reporting issues.
- Legal and Reputational Damage from Allegations of Fraudulent Billing: PACS is under a federal investigation for alleged deceptive Medicare billing and referral practices. A short seller report specifically accused PACS of abusing a COVID-era waiver, claiming this scheme drove a substantial portion of its operating and net income between 2020 and 2023, and of a "new trick" involving unnecessary Medicare Part B billing post-waiver. Furthermore, a class-action lawsuit has been filed against the company, alleging misleading investor communications. These legal and regulatory challenges pose significant financial liabilities, increased legal costs, and could severely damage the company's reputation and long-term operational viability.
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The clear emerging threat for PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) is the accelerating societal and policy-driven shift towards home and community-based care (HCBC) and "aging in place." This trend directly competes with and reduces the demand for the skilled nursing facilities and senior living communities that constitute PACS's primary business model. Government initiatives, technological advancements in remote monitoring and telehealth, and strong patient preferences are all contributing to a growing market for in-home care services, presenting a long-term challenge to the traditional institutional care sector.
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PACS Group, Inc. (symbol: PACS) operates within the U.S. post-acute healthcare market, primarily focusing on skilled nursing facilities and assisted living, and independent living services.
The addressable markets for their main products and services in the U.S. are:
- U.S. Post-Acute Care (PAC) Market: The U.S. post-acute care market was valued at approximately USD 482.97 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach around USD 786.71 billion by 2034, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5% from 2024 to 2034. Other estimates place the market at USD 438.07 billion in 2022, with a projection to reach approximately USD 696.55 billion by 2032 at a CAGR of 4.75% from 2023 to 2032. This market includes skilled nursing facilities, home care, long-term acute care, and inpatient rehabilitation.
- U.S. Skilled Nursing Facilities (SNF) Market: The U.S. skilled nursing facilities market size was estimated at USD 199.72 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 290.02 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.39% from 2025 to 2033. Another source estimates the market to be valued at USD 407.89 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 668.37 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.3% from 2025 to 2032. Skilled nursing facilities contribute a significant share to the post-acute care market.
- U.S. Long-Term Care Market: The U.S. long-term care market size was estimated at USD 470.66 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach an estimated value of USD 729.78 billion by 2030, registering a CAGR of 7.71% over the forecast period. This market encompasses services such as nursing care, assisted living facilities, home health care, and hospices.
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PACS Group, Inc. (symbol: PACS) is anticipated to experience future revenue growth over the next two to three years driven by several key factors:
- Expansion through Acquisitions and New Facility Additions: PACS Group has demonstrated a consistent strategy of expanding its operational footprint by acquiring new facilities and adding new beds. For example, the company added 32 facilities and 12 real estate acquisitions in the 12 months ending June 30, 2024, and an additional 28 facilities across four new states since then, bringing its total operated facilities to 248 at that time. Since Q2 2024, PACS has added 96 facilities to its portfolio. This ongoing expansion significantly increases the company's capacity and reach, directly contributing to higher revenue.
- Increased Occupancy Rates and Patient Days: A fundamental driver of revenue for post-acute care providers is the utilization of their facilities. PACS has consistently reported strong occupancy rates, with facility occupancy at 91% in Q2 2024, notably above the industry average of 76%. The addition of operational beds also leads to an increase in patient days, further boosting revenue. As new and existing facilities maintain or improve their occupancy, overall patient days and corresponding revenue are expected to grow.
- Growth in Revenue Per Patient Day and Rate Increases: PACS has experienced improvements in its revenue per patient day, influenced by both the maturation of facilities and strategic rate increases. The average Medicare revenue per patient day increased to $952 in the second quarter of 2024, up from $870 in the same period of 2023. This indicates that the company is not only serving more patients but also generating higher revenue for each patient day, potentially due to higher patient acuity levels and favorable reimbursement rates.
- Maturation of Existing and Newly Acquired Facilities: As new facilities integrate into PACS Group's operations and mature, they typically achieve higher occupancy rates and increased revenue per patient day. The company estimates a 19% improvement in occupancy and a 14.8% increase in revenue per day as facilities transition from new to mature status. This organic growth within the existing portfolio, as facilities reach their full potential, is a significant, built-in driver of future revenue.
- Emphasis on High-Quality Care and CMS Star Ratings: PACS Group attributes its revenue growth, in part, to a strong focus on clinical outcomes and high Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Quality Measures ratings. Many of their facilities hold 4- or 5-star ratings, which can enhance their reputation, attract more patients, and potentially lead to preferred provider status and better reimbursement rates. This commitment to quality care positions PACS favorably within the competitive healthcare landscape.
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Share Issuance
- PACS Group, Inc. completed its initial public offering on April 15, 2024, selling 21,428,572 shares of common stock at $21.00 per share, generating approximately $450 million in gross proceeds.
- In September 2024, the company closed an upsized underwritten public offering, issuing 2,777,778 shares of its common stock at $36.25 per share, resulting in approximately $101 million in gross proceeds to the company.
Outbound Investments
- Since October 31, 2024, PACS Group has acquired 38 facilities, adding 4,700 skilled nursing beds and expanding its presence to 17 states.
- The company completed the acquisition of 11 skilled nursing facilities in Tennessee in December 2024, adding 1,310 skilled nursing beds to its portfolio, with a 12th facility expected to close in Q1 2025.
- PACS Group has seen a net addition of 96 healthcare facilities since the second quarter of 2024, primarily occurring in the latter half of 2024, bringing its total to 316 healthcare facilities across 17 states as of June 30, 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- The company anticipates capital expenditures of $54 million for the next fiscal year.
- Capital expenditures constitute a significant portion of PACS Group's cost of services.
- PACS Group plans to utilize its cash flow to support its growth initiatives and execute its business plan.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| PACS Stock Surges 132%, With A 7-Day Winning Spree | 12/02/2025 | |
| PACS Stock Rockets 123% With 6-Day Winning Streak | 11/27/2025 | |
| PACS Stock On Fire: Up 120% With 5-Day Winning Streak | 11/26/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold PACS Stock If It Fell 30%? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons for PACS
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 90.04 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.3 |
| Rev LTM | 4,025 |
| Op Inc LTM | 206 |
| FCF LTM | 98 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 104 |
| CFO LTM | 350 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 155 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 19.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $35.14 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/11/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $31.98 | $16.33 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 9.9% | 115.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 159.9% | 99.4% |
| Downside Capture | -392.54 | -6.92 |
| Upside Capture | 206.85 | 87.26 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -13.3% | 13.3% |
PACS Betas & Captures as of 12/31/2025
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.07 | -3.56 | -1.92 | -0.54 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| Up Beta | 3.97 | 5.09 | 2.69 | 4.04 | 1.03 | -0.41 |
| Down Beta | -1.10 | -11.45 | -4.83 | -3.84 | 0.57 | -1.19 |
| Up Capture | 129% | 361% | 200% | 146% | 94% | 18% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 37 | 72 | 143 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 25 | 33 | 62 | 119 | 211 |
| Down Capture | -186% | -1046% | -573% | -316% | -23% | 63% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 18 | 27 | 55 | 108 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 15 | 30 | 63 | 129 | 215 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PACS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACS | 164.0% | 99.3% | 1.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.6% | 17.3% | 0.53 | 15.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 19.3% | 0.61 | 13.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 80.0% | 20.4% | 2.79 | -9.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.2% | 15.3% | 0.19 | 1.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 16.7% | -0.00 | 16.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.1% | 39.8% | -0.32 | -5.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PACS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACS | 9.8% | 88.6% | 0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.9% | 14.5% | 0.37 | 18.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.2% | 17.1% | 0.67 | 12.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.3% | 15.7% | 1.10 | -0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 18.7% | 0.48 | 0.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 18.8% | 0.19 | 21.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 18.2% | 58.0% | 0.52 | -0.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PACS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACS | 4.8% | 88.6% | 0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 11.0% | 16.6% | 0.55 | 18.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 18.0% | 0.75 | 12.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.8% | 14.9% | 0.88 | -0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 0.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.8% | 0.25 | 21.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 70.6% | 66.7% | 1.10 | -0.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/11/2025 | 24.5% | 45.5% | 69.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | -38.8% | -30.5% | -50.5% |
| 8/12/2024 | 18.8% | 23.1% | 22.2% |
| 5/13/2024 | 7.3% | 13.8% | 17.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 18.8% | 23.1% | 22.2% |
| Median Negative | -38.8% | -30.5% | -50.5% |
| Max Positive | 24.5% | 45.5% | 69.9% |
| Max Negative | -38.8% | -30.5% | -50.5% |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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