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Brookdale Senior Living (BKD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.42 | Market Cap: $2.5 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities

Brookdale Senior Living (BKD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.42
Market Cap: $2.5 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Health Care Facilities

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 261%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Geriatric Care.
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19%
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Geriatric Care.
2 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 261%
3 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BKD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) experienced notable movements in its stock during the period from late 2023 through mid-2024, influenced by several operational and financial developments. While the specific 37.8% movement for the future period cannot be addressed, the company's performance in recent history provides insight into its drivers.

1. Strong Occupancy and Revenue Growth in 2023 and Early 2024: Brookdale demonstrated significant progress in recovering occupancy rates lost during the pandemic. For the full year 2023, same-community weighted average occupancy grew by 190 basis points, and revenue per available unit (RevPAR) increased by 11.4%. This positive trend continued into the first quarter of 2024, with consolidated RevPAR increasing 6.7% year-over-year and weighted average occupancy increasing by 160 basis points.

2. Improved Financial Performance and Adjusted EBITDA: The company showed substantial financial improvement, with Adjusted EBITDA growing 39.1% year-over-year in 2023 to $335.5 million. In Q1 2024, Adjusted EBITDA grew 10% year-over-year, exceeding guidance. This was primarily driven by increased resident fees.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BKD Return-39%16%-47%113%-14%118%51%
Peers Return13%5%9%-1%-12%-15%-4%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BKD Win Rate42%58%42%58%42%70% 
Peers Win Rate15%15%15%10%6%25% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BKD Max Drawdown-76%-5%-48%-14%-15%-10% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-0%-4%-5%-13%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBKDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-73.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven272.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven931 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-79.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven382.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven450 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-63.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven170.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-94.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1849.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA


In The Past

Brookdale Senior Living's stock fell -73.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/16/2021. A -73.1% loss requires a 272.3% gain to breakeven.

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About Brookdale Senior Living (BKD)

Better Bets than Brookdale Senior Living (BKD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BKD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Brookdale Senior Living

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BKDACHCAMTUAVGMCTASRTAMedian
NameBrookdal.Acadia H.Amatuhi Anew Hea.Charming.Strata C. 
Mkt Price10.6114.69---4.4410.61
Mkt Cap2.51.3----1.9
Rev LTM3,2213,266---2543,221
Op Inc LTM64444----2464
FCF LTM41-347----20-20
FCF 3Y Avg-52-252----32-52
CFO LTM229335---1229
CFO 3Y Avg155308----18155

Growth & Margins

BKDACHCAMTUAVGMCTASRTAMedian
NameBrookdal.Acadia H.Amatuhi Anew Hea.Charming.Strata C. 
Rev Chg LTM3.9%4.6%---6.7%4.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.2%9.0%---36.5%9.0%
Rev Chg Q3.7%4.4%---4.2%4.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.9%1.1%---1.1%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM2.0%13.6%----9.6%2.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg1.1%16.2%----22.0%1.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%-1.0%---3.0%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM7.1%10.3%---0.5%7.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.9%10.2%----8.9%4.9%
FCF/Rev LTM1.3%-10.6%----7.7%-7.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.8%-7.8%----14.6%-7.8%

Valuation

BKDACHCAMTUAVGMCTASRTAMedian
NameBrookdal.Acadia H.Amatuhi Anew Hea.Charming.Strata C. 
Mkt Cap2.51.3----1.9
P/S0.60.7----0.7
P/EBIT-34.88.2-----13.3
P/E-6.620.9----7.1
P/CFO8.86.7----7.7
Total Yield-15.2%4.8%-----5.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.5%-7.6%-----6.5%
D/E2.71.1----1.9
Net D/E2.61.0----1.8

Returns

BKDACHCAMTUAVGMCTASRTAMedian
NameBrookdal.Acadia H.Amatuhi Anew Hea.Charming.Strata C. 
1M Rtn15.7%-31.1%----12.9%-12.9%
3M Rtn39.1%-37.0%---7.0%7.0%
6M Rtn60.3%-35.0%----12.6%
12M Rtn92.6%-65.2%----13.7%
3Y Rtn217.7%-83.2%----67.2%
1M Excs Rtn15.7%-31.0%----12.9%-12.9%
3M Excs Rtn33.3%-43.2%---0.9%0.9%
6M Excs Rtn45.6%-49.7%-----2.1%
12M Excs Rtn73.2%-77.4%-----2.1%
3Y Excs Rtn189.3%-155.4%----17.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Assisted Living and Memory Care3,3163,3303,6013,7884,158
Independent Living1,2061,2681,3491,4201,442
Continuing care retirement centers (CCRCs)613665693738743
Corporate and All other439 767723596
All Other 675   
Health Care Services   233257
Total5,5735,9376,4106,9027,194


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,515,985
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202510.2%
Average Daily Volume4,257,380
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.17
Basic Shares Quantity237,487,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021215202210-K 12/31/2021