Brookdale Senior Living (BKD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.42 | Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities
Brookdale Senior Living (BKD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.42Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Facilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 261% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Geriatric Care. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Geriatric Care. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 261% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BKD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) experienced notable movements in its stock during the period from late 2023 through mid-2024, influenced by several operational and financial developments. While the specific 37.8% movement for the future period cannot be addressed, the company's performance in recent history provides insight into its drivers.
1. Strong Occupancy and Revenue Growth in 2023 and Early 2024: Brookdale demonstrated significant progress in recovering occupancy rates lost during the pandemic. For the full year 2023, same-community weighted average occupancy grew by 190 basis points, and revenue per available unit (RevPAR) increased by 11.4%. This positive trend continued into the first quarter of 2024, with consolidated RevPAR increasing 6.7% year-over-year and weighted average occupancy increasing by 160 basis points.
2. Improved Financial Performance and Adjusted EBITDA: The company showed substantial financial improvement, with Adjusted EBITDA growing 39.1% year-over-year in 2023 to $335.5 million. In Q1 2024, Adjusted EBITDA grew 10% year-over-year, exceeding guidance. This was primarily driven by increased resident fees.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BKD Return | -39% | 16% | -47% | 113% | -14% | 118% | 51% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 5% | 9% | -1% | -12% | -15% | -4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BKD Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 15% | 15% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 25% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BKD Max Drawdown | -76% | -5% | -48% | -14% | -15% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -0% | -4% | -5% | -13% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BKD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 272.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 931 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -79.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 382.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 450 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -63.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 170.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1849.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA
In The Past
Brookdale Senior Living's stock fell -73.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/16/2021. A -73.1% loss requires a 272.3% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Brookdale Senior Living Earnings Notes | |||
| Is Brookdale Senior Living Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | ||
| Better Bet Than BKD Stock: Pay Less Than Brookdale Senior Living To Get More From NUTX | Actionable | ||
| Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 13th, 2025 | ||
| Better Bet Than Brookdale Senior Living Stock: Pay Less To Get More From NUTX | August 21st, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BKD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Brookdale Senior Living
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 10.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| Rev LTM | 3,221 |
| Op Inc LTM | 64 |
| FCF LTM | -20 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -52 |
| CFO LTM | 229 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 155 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -7.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | -13.3 |
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/CFO | 7.7 |
| Total Yield | -5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -6.5% |
| D/E | 1.9 |
| Net D/E | 1.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 67.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 17.0% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assisted Living and Memory Care | 3,316 | 3,330 | 3,601 | 3,788 | 4,158 |
| Independent Living | 1,206 | 1,268 | 1,349 | 1,420 | 1,442 |
| Continuing care retirement centers (CCRCs) | 613 | 665 | 693 | 738 | 743 |
| Corporate and All other | 439 | 767 | 723 | 596 | |
| All Other | 675 | ||||
| Health Care Services | 233 | 257 | |||
| Total | 5,573 | 5,937 | 6,410 | 6,902 | 7,194 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |