Oracle (ORCL)
Market Price (4/16/2026): $174.8 | Market Cap: $502.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Oracle (ORCL)
Market Price (4/16/2026): $174.8Market Cap: $502.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 24 Bil Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -42% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.3 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Automation & Robotics. Show more. | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -39% Key risksORCL key risks include [1] significant financial strain from its aggressive AI data center expansion, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 24 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -42% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.3 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Automation & Robotics. Show more. |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -39% |
| Key risksORCL key risks include [1] significant financial strain from its aggressive AI data center expansion, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Oracle's significant capital expenditures for cloud and AI infrastructure expansion contributed to negative free cash flow.
In fiscal year 2026, Oracle planned to invest approximately $35 billion in building out its data center infrastructure to support surging demand for cloud and AI workloads. This aggressive investment strategy led to a negative free cash flow of -$5.88 billion over the last twelve months (as of Q1 FY26), despite positive operating cash flow of $21.5 billion. The substantial spending on infrastructure, while intended for long-term growth, can be viewed as a short-term drag on profitability and cash generation by some investors.
2. Executive Vice President Douglas A. Kehring conducted a significant insider sale exceeding $5 million.
On January 15, 2026, Oracle's Executive Vice President, Douglas A. Kehring, sold 35,000 shares of company stock at an average price of $194.89 per share, totaling $6,821,150.00. This transaction represented a 50.99% decrease in his direct ownership of shares. Insider selling of this magnitude can sometimes signal concerns to the market, even if conducted under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.3% change in ORCL stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 193.72 | 169.81 | -12.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 61,017 | 64,077 | 5.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.3% | 25.3% | 0.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.0 | 30.1 | -16.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,864 | 2,874 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | -12.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 43.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 4.4% | 57.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -39.1% change in ORCL stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 279.04 | 169.81 | -39.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 59,018 | 64,077 | 8.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.1% | 25.3% | 20.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 63.4 | 30.1 | -52.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,826 | 2,874 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -39.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | -39.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 39.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 6.8% | 56.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.1% change in ORCL stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 137.93 | 169.81 | 23.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 55,783 | 64,077 | 14.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.8% | 25.3% | 16.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.7 | 30.1 | -5.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,799 | 2,874 | -2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 23.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 41.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 46.2% | 52.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 90.1% change in ORCL stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 44.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 89.32 | 169.81 | 90.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 47,958 | 64,077 | 33.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.5% | 25.3% | 44.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.8 | 30.1 | 4.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,698 | 2,874 | -6.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 90.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 90.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 46.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 103.0% | 55.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ORCL Return | 37% | -5% | 31% | 60% | 18% | -16% | 172% |
| Peers Return | 30% | -31% | 64% | 32% | 21% | -12% | 108% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ORCL Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 32% | 67% | 68% | 50% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ORCL Max Drawdown | -6% | -29% | 0% | -3% | -26% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -37% | -5% | -7% | -19% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, CRM, GOOGL, IBM. See ORCL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ORCL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 237 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 266 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 284 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MSFT, AMZN, CRM, GOOGL, IBM
In The Past
Oracle's stock fell -41.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/15/2021. A -41.1% loss requires a 69.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Oracle (ORCL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Oracle is like:
- Microsoft for enterprise software and cloud services.
- A blend of SAP for business applications and AWS for cloud infrastructure.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications (SaaS): A comprehensive suite of cloud-based enterprise software for resource planning, performance management, supply chain, human capital, and customer experience.
- NetSuite Applications Suite: A cloud-based business management software suite primarily for small and mid-sized organizations, covering ERP, CRM, and e-commerce.
- Cloud-based Industry Solutions: Specialized cloud software and services designed to meet the unique needs of various specific industries.
- Oracle Database: A leading enterprise relational database management system for storing and managing critical business data.
- Java & Middleware: The widely used Java programming language and accompanying software for application development, integration, and process automation.
- Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI): Cloud services providing scalable compute, storage, and networking resources for running diverse workloads.
- Autonomous Database Services: Self-managing, self-securing, and self-repairing cloud database services, including autonomous data warehouse and transaction processing.
- Emerging Technology Services: Cloud-based services leveraging Internet-of-Things (IoT), digital assistants, and blockchain technologies for various business applications.
- Hardware Products: A range of enterprise hardware offerings including engineered systems, servers, storage solutions, and industry-specific devices.
- Application Licenses & Support: Licenses for Oracle's on-premise applications along with comprehensive support services for their maintenance and operation.
- Consulting Services: Expert professional services to assist customers with the implementation, optimization, and management of Oracle's diverse product portfolio.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Oracle (ORCL) sells primarily to other companies and organizations. Based on the provided background information, its major customers are broadly categorized as:- Businesses in various industries
- Government agencies
- Educational institutions
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Clayton Magouyrk, Co-Chief Executive Officer
Clayton Magouyrk was promoted to Co-Chief Executive Officer of Oracle, effective September 22, 2025. He joined Oracle in 2014 from Amazon Web Services (AWS) and was a founding member of Oracle's cloud engineering team. Prior to his promotion, he served as President of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) since June 2025. At Oracle, he has been responsible for overseeing the design, implementation, and business success of the second generation of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. Before joining Oracle, Magouyrk was a senior engineer at Amazon and Amazon Web Services.
Mike Sicilia, Co-Chief Executive Officer
Mike Sicilia was promoted to Co-Chief Executive Officer of Oracle, effective September 22, 2025. He joined Oracle in 2009, coming through the acquisition of Primavera Systems. Prior to his promotion, he served as President of Oracle Industries since June 2025. Before joining Oracle, Sicilia was the Chief Technology Officer at Primavera Systems. His teams at Oracle have pioneered the use of intent-based application generation and integrated sophisticated AI Agents into Oracle's industry application suites.
Douglas Kehring, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer
Douglas Kehring was promoted to Executive Vice President and Principal Financial Officer (CFO) of Oracle, effective September 22, 2025. He has been with Oracle since 2000, most recently serving as Executive Vice President of Operations.
Larry Ellison, Executive Chairman and Chief Technology Officer
Larry Ellison is the co-founder of Oracle Corporation, which he started in 1977 as Software Development Laboratories (SDL) with Robert Miner and Ed Oates. He served as Oracle's Chief Executive Officer from 1977 until September 2014, when he transitioned to his current roles as Executive Chairman and Chief Technology Officer. Ellison was involved in the sale of NetSuite to Oracle for $9.3 billion in 2016, where he personally gained $3.5 billion from his 35% ownership of NetSuite. He also co-founded a software startup called Project Ronin, which closed in 2024.
Safra Catz, Executive Vice Chair of the Board
Safra Catz transitioned to the role of Executive Vice Chair of the Board of Oracle, effective September 22, 2025, after serving as CEO. She joined Oracle in 1999 and has held numerous leadership positions, including President (since 2004), Chief Financial Officer (2005-2014 and 2016-2017), Co-CEO (2014-2019), and then sole CEO (2019-2025). Catz has been instrumental in Oracle's acquisition strategy, notably overseeing the $10.3 billion acquisition of PeopleSoft in 2005. Prior to Oracle, she was a banker at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette from 1986 to 1999, where she held roles including managing director and senior vice president. She has also served on the board of HSBC Holdings plc and currently serves on the board of The Walt Disney Company.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Oracle (symbol: ORCL) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from its strategic pivot towards cloud services and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
- Intense Competition in Cloud Services: Oracle operates in a highly competitive market, particularly in cloud services (Infrastructure-as-a-Service and Software-as-a-Service). It faces significant competition from major cloud providers such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform, all of whom possess substantial resources and larger market shares. In the enterprise application software (SaaS) space, Oracle also competes with established players like SAP and Salesforce. This intense competition necessitates continuous innovation and substantial investment to maintain and grow market position.
- Increasing Debt Load and High Capital Expenditures for Cloud Infrastructure: Oracle's aggressive expansion into cloud infrastructure, particularly for AI capabilities, requires significant capital expenditures. This strategy has led to an increasing debt load, with total non-current liabilities rising substantially. There are concerns that if capital expenditures remain high relative to operating cash flow, it could result in negative free cash flow and potentially impact financial flexibility or lead to credit rating downgrades. The company's future performance is increasingly tied to the success of these cloud offerings and the returns on these heavy investments.
- Client Concentration Risk: A significant portion of Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO), which represent future contractual revenue, is dependent on a large, multi-year contract with OpenAI. This substantial client concentration creates a specific risk, as Oracle's financial outlook could be adversely affected if OpenAI is unable to meet its commitments or if there are disruptions to this key relationship.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat to Oracle stems from the accelerating shift in the enterprise database market. Traditionally dominant with its proprietary Oracle Database, the company faces significant challenges from two fronts:
First, the widespread adoption of **open-source databases** such as PostgreSQL, MongoDB, and Cassandra, which offer comparable functionality, greater flexibility, and significantly lower licensing costs. This trend erodes demand for Oracle's high-margin database licenses, especially among newer companies and those seeking to avoid vendor lock-in.
Second, the rise of **cloud-native, managed database services** offered by hyperscale cloud providers like Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform (GCP). These providers offer their own fully managed database services (e.g., AWS Aurora, Azure Cosmos DB, Google Cloud Spanner) that are often optimized for their respective cloud environments, providing ease of use, scalability, and competitive pricing, directly competing with Oracle's database offerings and encouraging customers to migrate their data away from Oracle's ecosystem.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Oracle Corporation participates in several significant global addressable markets for its diverse range of products and services. Here are the estimated market sizes for Oracle's main offerings:Cloud Software as a Service (SaaS)
- Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Software: The global ERP software market was valued at approximately USD 92.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 281.58 billion by 2034. North America is a dominant region, holding a 34.20% share of the global market in 2025.
- Enterprise Performance Management (EPM) Software: The global Enterprise Performance Management software market size was estimated at USD 6.73 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 15.35 billion by 2033. North America held a 39.2% revenue share of the global EPM market in 2024.
- Supply Chain Management (SCM) Software: The global supply chain management software market size was valued at USD 23.2 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 54.8 billion by 2034. North America dominated this market with over 39.2% market share in 2025.
- Human Capital Management (HCM) Software: The global human capital management market size was valued at USD 34.12 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 76.22 billion by 2034. North America was the leading revenue contributor in 2025, accounting for 45.50% of the global market share.
- Customer Experience (CX) Software: The global customer experience (CX) software market was valued at $25 billion in 2025 and is forecasted to achieve a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15% from 2025 to 2033. The global Customer Experience (CX) Enterprise Software market is projected to reach USD 24.7 billion by 2031.
Cloud and License Business' Infrastructure Technologies
- Database Management System (DBMS): The global database management system market size was valued at USD 132.09 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 406.03 billion by 2034. North America accounts for approximately 40% of the global market.
- Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS): The worldwide IaaS market reached $171.8 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase from USD 134.45 billion in 2026 to approximately USD 1061.67 billion by 2035. North America garnered the highest revenue share of 46% in 2025.
Hardware Products
- Enterprise Servers: The global enterprise server market size was more than USD 92.93 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 191.53 billion by 2035. North America is projected to hold a 35% share of this market by 2035.
- Enterprise Storage Solutions: The global enterprise storage system market size was valued at around USD 78.41 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 142.81 billion by 2034. North America was the largest region in the enterprise storage market in 2025.
Consulting Services
- IT Consulting Services: The global IT consulting services market size was valued at around USD 78.03 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 129.15 billion by 2034. North America is a leading region, with businesses rapidly implementing advanced solutions, and accounts for 27.75% of the global market revenue in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Explosive Growth in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) Driven by AI Workloads: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a primary driver of revenue growth, experiencing significant acceleration due to the surging demand for artificial intelligence (AI) training and inference capacity. OCI revenue increased by an impressive 84% year-over-year in Q3 fiscal year 2026. The company has secured massive contracts, including commitments for billions of dollars in AI capacity, and is aggressively expanding its data center footprint to meet this demand.
- Expansion of Multicloud Database Offerings and SaaS Applications: Oracle's multicloud database revenue has shown remarkable growth, soaring 531% year-over-year in Q3 fiscal year 2026. Additionally, the company's cloud-based software as a service (SaaS) offerings, particularly Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Fusion Cloud Supply Chain & Manufacturing Management (SCM), and Fusion Cloud Human Capital Management (HCM), continue to be strong contributors. Fusion ERP revenue grew 14% in constant currency in Q3 fiscal year 2026. Oracle is enhancing these applications by embedding over 1,000 AI agents to improve competitiveness, automate tasks, and provide real-time insights.
- Substantial Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): Oracle boasts a record-breaking backlog of $553 billion in remaining performance obligations, a significant portion of which is attributed to large-scale AI contracts and cloud service commitments. This substantial backlog provides strong visibility and a clear roadmap for sustained revenue generation over the coming years.
- Cloud Transition and AI Integration in Oracle Health (Cerner): While initially facing "near-term headwinds" during its transition, Oracle is accelerating the migration of its Cerner business (now Oracle Health) to the cloud. The strategy involves integrating AI-powered clinical agents into the Electronic Health Record (EHR) system to reduce physician burnout and improve the healthcare platform. This cloud-first approach for Oracle Health is expected to scale up its cloud business in the healthcare market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Oracle executed $5.3 billion in share buybacks during fiscal year 2025, a significant increase from $1.2 billion in the previous year.
- From fiscal years ending May 2021 to 2025, Oracle's repurchase of common stock averaged -$9.237 billion.
- In December 2021, Oracle's Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $10.0 billion of common stock under its existing program.
Share Issuance
- The average issuance of common stock for Oracle from fiscal years ending May 2021 to 2025 was 856.9 million.
- Share issuance peaked at 1.461 billion in May 2021 and reached a 5-year low of 449.1 million in May 2022.
- In February 2026, Oracle announced its intent to raise up to $50 billion in debt and equity financing, having already raised $30 billion through bonds and mandatory convertible preferred stock, with the at-the-market equity portion yet to be initiated.
Outbound Investments
- Oracle's largest acquisition to date was Cerner in June 2022, for $28.3 billion, aimed at enhancing electronic health records and data analytics.
- As of fiscal year 2025, Oracle has completed over 150 acquisitions, with total expenditures exceeding $110 billion, primarily focused on expanding its technology portfolio.
- Recent notable acquisitions include NextService (October 2023), Newmetrix (December 2022), FOEX (August 2022), and Adi Insights (May 2022).
Capital Expenditures
- Oracle has increased its capital expenditure forecast for fiscal year 2026 to $50 billion, a significant rise from the previously anticipated $35 billion for the same fiscal year.
- Oracle's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending May 2021 to 2025 averaged $8.684 billion, peaking at $21.215 billion in May 2025.
- The primary focus of these expenditures is on revenue-generating equipment, including GPU-based infrastructure and data centers to support the growing demand for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and AI workloads.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | PANW | Palo Alto Networks | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | ALKT | Alkami Technology | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DBX | Dropbox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DLB | Dolby Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PTC | PTC | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 02062026 | ORCL | Oracle | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.0% | 3.0% | -2.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 246.65 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,574.7 |
| Rev LTM | 186,494 |
| Op Inc LTM | 50,326 |
| FCF LTM | 12,928 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 18,187 |
| CFO LTM | 81,514 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 67,139 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,574.7 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| P/EBIT | 21.1 |
| P/E | 27.9 |
| P/CFO | 19.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 97.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 26.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $169.81 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 488.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/12/1986 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -47.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $150.06 | $214.45 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 13.2% | -20.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 59.0% | 61.6% |
| Downside Capture | 0.59 | 0.86 |
| Upside Capture | 82.42 | 155.43 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 36.8% | 33.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.45 | 1.80 | 1.76 | 1.59 | 1.35 | 1.43 |
| Up Beta | 0.24 | 1.66 | 1.07 | 1.22 | 1.10 | 1.12 |
| Down Beta | 2.73 | 2.10 | 2.02 | 2.06 | 1.31 | 1.50 |
| Up Capture | 134% | 156% | 119% | 46% | 196% | 404% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 17 | 25 | 55 | 128 | 403 |
| Down Capture | 74% | 171% | 198% | 180% | 137% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 25 | 38 | 71 | 124 | 346 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 29.7% | 61.4% | 0.64 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 52.5% | 21.1% | 1.90 | 49.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.0% | 12.9% | 1.36 | 34.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 49.0% | 27.5% | 1.44 | 1.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.0% | 16.1% | 1.38 | 11.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 17.3% | 13.7% | 0.92 | 3.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -10.4% | 42.6% | -0.14 | 26.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 19.3% | 40.4% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.3% | 24.7% | 0.63 | 54.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 48.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.9% | 17.8% | 1.01 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 18.8% | 0.50 | 11.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.0% | 18.8% | 0.12 | 26.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.1% | 56.5% | 0.31 | 16.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 17.1% | 34.1% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.4% | 24.3% | 0.84 | 57.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 54.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | 5.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 16.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 34.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 11.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/10/2026 | 9.2% | 3.5% | -7.4% |
| 12/10/2025 | -10.8% | -20.0% | -8.0% |
| 9/9/2025 | 35.9% | 27.0% | 19.5% |
| 6/11/2025 | 13.3% | 19.6% | 33.5% |
| 3/10/2025 | -3.1% | 3.5% | -16.3% |
| 12/9/2024 | -6.7% | -10.1% | -18.7% |
| 9/9/2024 | 11.4% | 21.8% | 24.6% |
| 6/11/2024 | 13.3% | 16.8% | 17.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 11.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -8.5% | -13.4% |
| Max Positive | 35.9% | 27.0% | 33.5% |
| Max Negative | -13.5% | -20.0% | -18.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2026 | 03/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 12/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 12/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 09/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 12/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/20/2023 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 12/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 09/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/21/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 3/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue Growth | 18.0% | 19.0% | 20.0% | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2026 Cloud Revenue Growth | 44.0% | 46.0% | 48.0% | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2026 EPS Growth | 15.0% | 16.0% | 17.0% | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2026 EPS | 1.92 | 1.94 | 1.96 | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Revenue | 67.00 Bil | Higher New | |||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 50.00 Bil | Higher New | |||||
| 2027 Revenue | 90.00 Bil | Raised | |||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 12/10/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Remaining Performance Obligations | 500.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Amortization Expense | 812.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2027 Amortization Expense | 672.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2028 Amortization Expense | 635.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2029 Amortization Expense | 561.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2030 Amortization Expense | 522.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2031 Amortization Expense | 332.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Cloud Infrastructure Revenue | 18.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2027 Cloud Infrastructure Revenue | 32.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2028 Cloud Infrastructure Revenue | 73.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2029 Cloud Infrastructure Revenue | 114.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2030 Cloud Infrastructure Revenue | 144.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hura, Mark | Pres., Global Field Operations | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 196.89 | 15,000 | 2,953,314 | 46,086,859 | Form |
| 2 | Seligman, Naomi O | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 196.61 | 2,223 | 437,064 | 5,032,430 | Form | |
| 3 | Magouyrk, Clayton M | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 192.52 | 10,000 | 1,925,152 | 27,727,964 | Form |
| 4 | Berg, Jeffrey | The Berg Family Trust | Sell | 10302025 | 283.02 | 49,365 | 13,971,267 | 43,018,709 | Form | |
| 5 | Smith, Maria | EVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 10232025 | 280.00 | 5,000 | 1,400,000 | 14,583,240 | Form |
ORCL Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The score of 7 (ACCUMULATE) is driven by a powerful, data-backed growth story with extremely high asymmetry. The unprecedented $553B RPO provides a clear line of sight to multi-year growth, and the +84% IaaS acceleration confirms Oracle is winning in the critical AI infrastructure market. The position is not an OVERWEIGHT (9-10) due to the significant, non-trivial execution risk associated with the massive capital expenditure and negative free cash flow required to fulfill this demand. This is a high-conviction bet on a successful business model transition.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type F: 'Transition / Profit Pivot' (Primary) blended with Type A: 'High-Beta Compounder' (Secondary)Oracle is in a capital-intensive transition, shifting its business model from high-margin legacy software to high-growth, lower-margin cloud infrastructure (Type F). This pivot is fueled by the hyper-growth of its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) segment, which is exhibiting characteristics of a high-beta compounder (Type A) due to the AI demand cycle.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis is centered on the market's re-appreciation of Oracle as a primary beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout. This is evidenced by the staggering $553 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), which provides unparalleled multi-year revenue visibility and confirms that OCI is capturing large-scale, mission-critical AI training workloads.
- Total Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) of $553 billion, up 325% year-over-year as of Q3 FY2026.
- Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) revenue growth accelerated to +84% YoY in Q3 FY2026, significantly outpacing cloud competitors.
- Company guidance for FY27 revenue of $90B, significantly exceeding prior analyst consensus, is predicated on converting this backlog.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is Oracle's ability to execute on its massive data center expansion to service its $553B backlog. This requires enormous capital expenditure ($50B guided for FY26), which has driven free cash flow negative and significantly increased debt. Any delays in buildout, cost overruns, or a cooling of demand from concentrated AI customers could lead to underutilized assets and severe margin compression, breaking the growth narrative.
- Guided FY26 CapEx of approximately $50 billion, funded by significant debt issuance.
- Free cash flow has turned negative in the trailing twelve months due to the capital investment cycle.
- High customer concentration risk within the large RPO figure, with a significant portion reportedly tied to a few large AI companies.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) | Sequential growth >$20B | This is the best leading indicator of future revenue and demand for OCI. Sustained, large sequential additions are required to validate the continuation of the AI-driven demand cycle. |
| Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Revenue Growth YoY | >+60% YoY | This is the primary engine of the bull thesis. This KPI must remain in hyper-growth territory to justify the premium valuation. A drop below 50-60% would signal a thesis-breaking deceleration. |
| Operating Cash Flow vs. Capital Expenditures | Trend towards OCF covering >75% of CapEx | The bear case centers on the cash burn from the massive infrastructure buildout. The market needs to see a clear path toward this investment cycle generating positive free cash flow. |
The AI Backlog vs. The Balance Sheet
BULL VIEW
The unprecedented 325% YoY RPO growth is a leading indicator of a historic market share capture in AI infrastructure, justifying the current investment cycle.
CORE TENSION
Bulls see a massive $553B RPO as guaranteed future growth. Bears see the required $50B in debt-funded CapEx and negative FCF as an unsustainable execution risk.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The +84% acceleration in IaaS growth confirms the demand story is real, but negative Free Cash Flow and guided $50B in FY26 CapEx confirm the execution risk is immediate.
BEAR VIEW
The massive cash burn, rising debt, and high customer concentration create a fragile model. Any execution delay or demand slowdown could be catastrophic for free cash flow.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Mid-June 2026 | Q4 FY2026 Earnings & FY2027 Guidance Watch: Operating Cash Flow vs. CapEx. Watch if OCF trend improves vs. the $50B FY26 CapEx guide, signaling a path to positive FCF. |
Mid-September 2026 | Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call Watch: Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Revenue Growth YoY. Needs to exceed the +60% threshold to maintain the hyper-growth narrative after Q3's +84% result. |
Ongoing / Next 6 Months | Cerner Health Integration Update Watch: Reports of major hospital systems delaying or canceling Cerner contracts due to migration issues. Any material write-down on the Cerner acquisition. |
Anytime | TikTok Partnership Court Ruling Watch: D.C. Circuit Court ruling on the lawsuit challenging the deal's structure under the Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
11/20/2025 | Investor Concern Over AI Spending Details: Stock dropped amid reports of notable insider selling and growing market concerns that Oracle's massive AI infrastructure investments carry high financial risk and client concentration. [21, 12] | Crashed -6.58% $224.15 -> $209.40 |
12/11/2025 | Q2 FY2026 Earnings Details: The stock fell despite an EPS beat. The market focused on a sequential slowdown in cloud revenue growth and a miss on total revenue, sparking concerns over execution. | Fell notably by -4.47% $197.63 -> $188.80 |
1/26/2026 | AI Infrastructure Expansion Update Details: Oracle publicly detailed its commitment to building out its AI data center footprint in the US, highlighting projects in partnership with OpenAI and its commitment to local communities. [15] | Rose significantly by 2.98% $176.54 -> $181.80 |
2/1/2026 | Debt and Equity Financing Plan Announced Details: Oracle announced plans to raise $45 to $50 billion in 2026 to fund its OCI expansion. The stock fell, signaling investor concern over the massive capital requirement. [2, 36] | Fell notably by -2.75% $164.00 -> $159.50 |
3/10/2026 | Q3 FY2026 Earnings Details: Stock surged as Total Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) grew 325% to $553 billion. Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) revenue growth accelerated to +84% YoY, overshadowing other metrics. [33] | Surged +9.18% $148.88 -> $162.55 |
4/13/2026 | AI for Utilities Announcement Details: Oracle stock surged after pitching new AI tools for the power industry at its Customer Edge Summit, providing a tangible use-case for its AI investments. [30] | Surged +12.7% $138.09 -> $155.62 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (4.5x S&P). The Bearish sentiment, driven by extreme cash burn and execution risk, mandates a Conservative sizing despite high revenue visibility.
Diversification Alternatives
MSFT
SECTORMicrosoft offers exposure to the same AI cloud growth via Azure but with a stronger, debt-free balance sheet, positive FCF, and a diversified, less concentrated business model.
PTC
INDUSTRYUnlike Oracle's high-stakes hardware buildout, PTC is a capital-light software pure-play with a strong recurring revenue base (93%) and demonstrated YoY free cash flow growth. [16]
Oracle is re-rating from a legacy on-premise database provider to a high-growth AI infrastructure and cloud applications vendor, driven by massive demand for its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and continued growth in its Fusion and NetSuite ERP suites.
Filter all news through the lens of Oracle's ability to convert its record-breaking backlog into profitable revenue while competing with hyperscale cloud providers.
Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue growth >+50% YoY; new multi-billion dollar AI training contracts with named customers; evidence of market share gains in IaaS or SaaS ERP; Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) growth exceeding revenue growth.
Slowing OCI revenue growth; major customer defections to AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud; faster-than-expected decline in the legacy software license business; signs that large RPO figures are not converting to revenue due to execution or capacity constraints.
Quarterly fluctuations in the legacy hardware or on-premise license segments; minor competitive benchmark wins/losses against other cloud providers; short-term stock price volatility related to capital expenditure concerns.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the market's recognition of Oracle's massive $553 billion Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) balance, up 325% YoY as of Q3 FY2026, driven by large-scale AI infrastructure contracts. This provides unprecedented multi-year revenue visibility and signals that Oracle's OCI is capturing significant AI training workloads, shifting its narrative from a legacy tech company to a key player in the AI boom.
Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS)
$19.6B TTM (28% of Total) · 32% MarginWhat It Is
Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) including bare metal servers, GPUs for AI training, Autonomous Database, and multi-cloud database services.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises and AI companies pay for high-performance, cost-effective cloud computing, particularly for running demanding Oracle database workloads and training large AI models. High switching costs are associated with migrating mission-critical databases off Oracle's platform.
Competition
Cloud Applications (SaaS)
$16.0B TTM (23% of Total) · 75% MarginWhat It Is
Fusion Cloud ERP, Fusion Cloud HCM, NetSuite ERP, and industry-specific applications.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises pay multi-year subscription fees to manage core business functions like finance, HR, and supply chain. Switching ERP systems is extremely costly and disruptive, creating a strong lock-in effect.
Competition
Legacy Software & Support
$24.4B TTM (35% of Total) · 90% MarginWhat It Is
On-premise software licenses for Oracle Database, Middleware, and applications, plus associated maintenance and support contracts.
Who Pays & How
Existing customers with large on-premise deployments pay for software updates and technical support. This is a very sticky, high-margin business as migrating core databases is complex and risky.
Competition
Hardware & Services
$9.2B TTM (14% of Total) · 20% MarginWhat It Is
Engineered systems (Exadata), servers, storage, and consulting services.
Who Pays & How
Customers with on-premise or hybrid cloud deployments purchase hardware optimized for Oracle software. Consulting services are used for implementation and management.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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