Oracle (ORCL)
Market Price (3/26/2026): $145.59 | Market Cap: $418.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Oracle (ORCL)
Market Price (3/26/2026): $145.59Market Cap: $418.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -39% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% | Key risksORCL key risks include [1] significant financial strain from its aggressive AI data center expansion, Show more. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 24 Bil | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -50% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Automation & Robotics. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 24 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Automation & Robotics. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -39% |
| Key risksORCL key risks include [1] significant financial strain from its aggressive AI data center expansion, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Oracle's Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 revenue miss and negative free cash flow raised investor concerns. On December 10, 2025, Oracle reported Q2 FY2026 results (for the period ending November 30, 2025) that showed revenues of $16.06 billion, missing Wall Street's estimates of $16.19 billion by 0.8%. Despite beating adjusted earnings per share, the revenue shortfall and a significantly negative free cash flow of -$13.18 billion, primarily due to rising capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, led to an immediate stock drop of 5.3% to $211.95 and an overall 10.8% decline to $198.85 on the reporting day.
2. Elevated capital spending on AI infrastructure and associated financing concerns weighed on the stock. Oracle's ambitious plans to spend $45 billion to $50 billion on building out its AI cloud infrastructure in fiscal year 2026, including a $15 billion upward revision in CapEx expectations after Q2 FY2026, intensified investor fears. These significant investments raised concerns about potential equity dilution and an increasing debt load. Further dampening sentiment, Blue Owl Capital withdrew from financing a $10 billion data center project for OpenAI on December 17, 2025, contributing to a 5.4% stock drop to $178.46.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -27.5% change in ORCL stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/25/2026 was primarily driven by a -43.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 201.42 | 146.02 | -27.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 59,018 | 64,077 | 8.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.1% | 25.3% | 20.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.8 | 25.9 | -43.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,826 | 2,874 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -27.5% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | -27.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.6% | 43.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | -4.3% | 57.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -35.1% change in ORCL stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/25/2026 was primarily driven by a -49.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 225.14 | 146.02 | -35.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 57,399 | 64,077 | 11.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.7% | 25.3% | 16.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 50.8 | 25.9 | -49.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,807 | 2,874 | -2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -35.1% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | -35.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.4% | 28.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 4.5% | 46.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.2% change in ORCL stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/25/2026 was primarily driven by a -34.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 164.39 | 146.02 | -11.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 54,933 | 64,077 | 16.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.2% | 25.3% | 19.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.5 | 25.9 | -34.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,790 | 2,874 | -2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | -11.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.8% | 43.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.0% | 54.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 73.2% change in ORCL stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 84.31 | 146.02 | 73.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 46,073 | 64,077 | 39.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.1% | 25.3% | 32.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.8 | 25.9 | 0.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,695 | 2,874 | -6.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 73.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 73.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.4% | 46.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 104.7% | 55.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ORCL Return | 37% | -5% | 31% | 60% | 18% | -24% | 144% |
| Peers Return | 30% | -31% | 64% | 32% | 21% | -18% | 93% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ORCL Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 32% | 67% | 68% | 50% | 27% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ORCL Max Drawdown | -6% | -29% | 0% | -3% | -26% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -37% | -5% | -7% | -19% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, CRM, GOOGL, IBM. See ORCL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/25/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ORCL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 237 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 266 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 284 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MSFT, AMZN, CRM, GOOGL, IBM
In The Past
Oracle's stock fell -41.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/15/2021. A -41.1% loss requires a 69.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Oracle (ORCL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Oracle is like:
- Microsoft for enterprise software and cloud services.
- A blend of SAP for business applications and AWS for cloud infrastructure.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications (SaaS): A comprehensive suite of cloud-based enterprise software for resource planning, performance management, supply chain, human capital, and customer experience.
- NetSuite Applications Suite: A cloud-based business management software suite primarily for small and mid-sized organizations, covering ERP, CRM, and e-commerce.
- Cloud-based Industry Solutions: Specialized cloud software and services designed to meet the unique needs of various specific industries.
- Oracle Database: A leading enterprise relational database management system for storing and managing critical business data.
- Java & Middleware: The widely used Java programming language and accompanying software for application development, integration, and process automation.
- Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI): Cloud services providing scalable compute, storage, and networking resources for running diverse workloads.
- Autonomous Database Services: Self-managing, self-securing, and self-repairing cloud database services, including autonomous data warehouse and transaction processing.
- Emerging Technology Services: Cloud-based services leveraging Internet-of-Things (IoT), digital assistants, and blockchain technologies for various business applications.
- Hardware Products: A range of enterprise hardware offerings including engineered systems, servers, storage solutions, and industry-specific devices.
- Application Licenses & Support: Licenses for Oracle's on-premise applications along with comprehensive support services for their maintenance and operation.
- Consulting Services: Expert professional services to assist customers with the implementation, optimization, and management of Oracle's diverse product portfolio.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Oracle (ORCL) sells primarily to other companies and organizations. Based on the provided background information, its major customers are broadly categorized as:- Businesses in various industries
- Government agencies
- Educational institutions
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nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Clayton Magouyrk, Co-Chief Executive Officer
Clayton Magouyrk was promoted to Co-Chief Executive Officer of Oracle, effective September 22, 2025. He joined Oracle in 2014 from Amazon Web Services (AWS) and was a founding member of Oracle's cloud engineering team. Prior to his promotion, he served as President of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) since June 2025. At Oracle, he has been responsible for overseeing the design, implementation, and business success of the second generation of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. Before joining Oracle, Magouyrk was a senior engineer at Amazon and Amazon Web Services.
Mike Sicilia, Co-Chief Executive Officer
Mike Sicilia was promoted to Co-Chief Executive Officer of Oracle, effective September 22, 2025. He joined Oracle in 2009, coming through the acquisition of Primavera Systems. Prior to his promotion, he served as President of Oracle Industries since June 2025. Before joining Oracle, Sicilia was the Chief Technology Officer at Primavera Systems. His teams at Oracle have pioneered the use of intent-based application generation and integrated sophisticated AI Agents into Oracle's industry application suites.
Douglas Kehring, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer
Douglas Kehring was promoted to Executive Vice President and Principal Financial Officer (CFO) of Oracle, effective September 22, 2025. He has been with Oracle since 2000, most recently serving as Executive Vice President of Operations.
Larry Ellison, Executive Chairman and Chief Technology Officer
Larry Ellison is the co-founder of Oracle Corporation, which he started in 1977 as Software Development Laboratories (SDL) with Robert Miner and Ed Oates. He served as Oracle's Chief Executive Officer from 1977 until September 2014, when he transitioned to his current roles as Executive Chairman and Chief Technology Officer. Ellison was involved in the sale of NetSuite to Oracle for $9.3 billion in 2016, where he personally gained $3.5 billion from his 35% ownership of NetSuite. He also co-founded a software startup called Project Ronin, which closed in 2024.
Safra Catz, Executive Vice Chair of the Board
Safra Catz transitioned to the role of Executive Vice Chair of the Board of Oracle, effective September 22, 2025, after serving as CEO. She joined Oracle in 1999 and has held numerous leadership positions, including President (since 2004), Chief Financial Officer (2005-2014 and 2016-2017), Co-CEO (2014-2019), and then sole CEO (2019-2025). Catz has been instrumental in Oracle's acquisition strategy, notably overseeing the $10.3 billion acquisition of PeopleSoft in 2005. Prior to Oracle, she was a banker at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette from 1986 to 1999, where she held roles including managing director and senior vice president. She has also served on the board of HSBC Holdings plc and currently serves on the board of The Walt Disney Company.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Oracle (symbol: ORCL) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from its strategic pivot towards cloud services and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
- Intense Competition in Cloud Services: Oracle operates in a highly competitive market, particularly in cloud services (Infrastructure-as-a-Service and Software-as-a-Service). It faces significant competition from major cloud providers such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform, all of whom possess substantial resources and larger market shares. In the enterprise application software (SaaS) space, Oracle also competes with established players like SAP and Salesforce. This intense competition necessitates continuous innovation and substantial investment to maintain and grow market position.
- Increasing Debt Load and High Capital Expenditures for Cloud Infrastructure: Oracle's aggressive expansion into cloud infrastructure, particularly for AI capabilities, requires significant capital expenditures. This strategy has led to an increasing debt load, with total non-current liabilities rising substantially. There are concerns that if capital expenditures remain high relative to operating cash flow, it could result in negative free cash flow and potentially impact financial flexibility or lead to credit rating downgrades. The company's future performance is increasingly tied to the success of these cloud offerings and the returns on these heavy investments.
- Client Concentration Risk: A significant portion of Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO), which represent future contractual revenue, is dependent on a large, multi-year contract with OpenAI. This substantial client concentration creates a specific risk, as Oracle's financial outlook could be adversely affected if OpenAI is unable to meet its commitments or if there are disruptions to this key relationship.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat to Oracle stems from the accelerating shift in the enterprise database market. Traditionally dominant with its proprietary Oracle Database, the company faces significant challenges from two fronts:
First, the widespread adoption of **open-source databases** such as PostgreSQL, MongoDB, and Cassandra, which offer comparable functionality, greater flexibility, and significantly lower licensing costs. This trend erodes demand for Oracle's high-margin database licenses, especially among newer companies and those seeking to avoid vendor lock-in.
Second, the rise of **cloud-native, managed database services** offered by hyperscale cloud providers like Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform (GCP). These providers offer their own fully managed database services (e.g., AWS Aurora, Azure Cosmos DB, Google Cloud Spanner) that are often optimized for their respective cloud environments, providing ease of use, scalability, and competitive pricing, directly competing with Oracle's database offerings and encouraging customers to migrate their data away from Oracle's ecosystem.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Oracle Corporation participates in several significant global addressable markets for its diverse range of products and services. Here are the estimated market sizes for Oracle's main offerings:Cloud Software as a Service (SaaS)
- Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Software: The global ERP software market was valued at approximately USD 92.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 281.58 billion by 2034. North America is a dominant region, holding a 34.20% share of the global market in 2025.
- Enterprise Performance Management (EPM) Software: The global Enterprise Performance Management software market size was estimated at USD 6.73 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 15.35 billion by 2033. North America held a 39.2% revenue share of the global EPM market in 2024.
- Supply Chain Management (SCM) Software: The global supply chain management software market size was valued at USD 23.2 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 54.8 billion by 2034. North America dominated this market with over 39.2% market share in 2025.
- Human Capital Management (HCM) Software: The global human capital management market size was valued at USD 34.12 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 76.22 billion by 2034. North America was the leading revenue contributor in 2025, accounting for 45.50% of the global market share.
- Customer Experience (CX) Software: The global customer experience (CX) software market was valued at $25 billion in 2025 and is forecasted to achieve a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15% from 2025 to 2033. The global Customer Experience (CX) Enterprise Software market is projected to reach USD 24.7 billion by 2031.
Cloud and License Business' Infrastructure Technologies
- Database Management System (DBMS): The global database management system market size was valued at USD 132.09 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 406.03 billion by 2034. North America accounts for approximately 40% of the global market.
- Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS): The worldwide IaaS market reached $171.8 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase from USD 134.45 billion in 2026 to approximately USD 1061.67 billion by 2035. North America garnered the highest revenue share of 46% in 2025.
Hardware Products
- Enterprise Servers: The global enterprise server market size was more than USD 92.93 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 191.53 billion by 2035. North America is projected to hold a 35% share of this market by 2035.
- Enterprise Storage Solutions: The global enterprise storage system market size was valued at around USD 78.41 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 142.81 billion by 2034. North America was the largest region in the enterprise storage market in 2025.
Consulting Services
- IT Consulting Services: The global IT consulting services market size was valued at around USD 78.03 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 129.15 billion by 2034. North America is a leading region, with businesses rapidly implementing advanced solutions, and accounts for 27.75% of the global market revenue in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Explosive Growth in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) Driven by AI Workloads: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a primary driver of revenue growth, experiencing significant acceleration due to the surging demand for artificial intelligence (AI) training and inference capacity. OCI revenue increased by an impressive 84% year-over-year in Q3 fiscal year 2026. The company has secured massive contracts, including commitments for billions of dollars in AI capacity, and is aggressively expanding its data center footprint to meet this demand.
- Expansion of Multicloud Database Offerings and SaaS Applications: Oracle's multicloud database revenue has shown remarkable growth, soaring 531% year-over-year in Q3 fiscal year 2026. Additionally, the company's cloud-based software as a service (SaaS) offerings, particularly Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Fusion Cloud Supply Chain & Manufacturing Management (SCM), and Fusion Cloud Human Capital Management (HCM), continue to be strong contributors. Fusion ERP revenue grew 14% in constant currency in Q3 fiscal year 2026. Oracle is enhancing these applications by embedding over 1,000 AI agents to improve competitiveness, automate tasks, and provide real-time insights.
- Substantial Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): Oracle boasts a record-breaking backlog of $553 billion in remaining performance obligations, a significant portion of which is attributed to large-scale AI contracts and cloud service commitments. This substantial backlog provides strong visibility and a clear roadmap for sustained revenue generation over the coming years.
- Cloud Transition and AI Integration in Oracle Health (Cerner): While initially facing "near-term headwinds" during its transition, Oracle is accelerating the migration of its Cerner business (now Oracle Health) to the cloud. The strategy involves integrating AI-powered clinical agents into the Electronic Health Record (EHR) system to reduce physician burnout and improve the healthcare platform. This cloud-first approach for Oracle Health is expected to scale up its cloud business in the healthcare market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Oracle executed $5.3 billion in share buybacks during fiscal year 2025, a significant increase from $1.2 billion in the previous year.
- From fiscal years ending May 2021 to 2025, Oracle's repurchase of common stock averaged -$9.237 billion.
- In December 2021, Oracle's Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $10.0 billion of common stock under its existing program.
Share Issuance
- The average issuance of common stock for Oracle from fiscal years ending May 2021 to 2025 was 856.9 million.
- Share issuance peaked at 1.461 billion in May 2021 and reached a 5-year low of 449.1 million in May 2022.
- In February 2026, Oracle announced its intent to raise up to $50 billion in debt and equity financing, having already raised $30 billion through bonds and mandatory convertible preferred stock, with the at-the-market equity portion yet to be initiated.
Outbound Investments
- Oracle's largest acquisition to date was Cerner in June 2022, for $28.3 billion, aimed at enhancing electronic health records and data analytics.
- As of fiscal year 2025, Oracle has completed over 150 acquisitions, with total expenditures exceeding $110 billion, primarily focused on expanding its technology portfolio.
- Recent notable acquisitions include NextService (October 2023), Newmetrix (December 2022), FOEX (August 2022), and Adi Insights (May 2022).
Capital Expenditures
- Oracle has increased its capital expenditure forecast for fiscal year 2026 to $50 billion, a significant rise from the previously anticipated $35 billion for the same fiscal year.
- Oracle's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending May 2021 to 2025 averaged $8.684 billion, peaking at $21.215 billion in May 2025.
- The primary focus of these expenditures is on revenue-generating equipment, including GPU-based infrastructure and data centers to support the growing demand for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and AI workloads.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Oracle Stock Near Crucial Support - Buy Signal? | 03/25/2026 | |
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| A Decade of Rewards: $158 Bil From Oracle Stock | 03/24/2026 | |
| Stress Testing ORCL: Historical Drawdowns and Macro Risks | 03/21/2026 | |
| Should You Buy Oracle Stock? | 03/20/2026 | |
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| What Could Set Oracle Stock on Fire | 03/04/2026 | |
| 3 Forces That Could Shake Oracle Stock | 02/25/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Oracle Stock at Support Zone – Bargain or Trap? | 03/25/2026 | |
| PTC Tops Oracle Stock on Price & Potential | 03/25/2026 | |
| Oracle Stock Capital Return Hits $158 Bil | 03/24/2026 | |
| How Low Can ORCL Really Go In A Market Crash? | 03/21/2026 | |
| Buy or Sell Oracle Stock? | 03/20/2026 |
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | BMI | Badger Meter | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02282026 | VRNS | Varonis Systems | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | ITRI | Itron | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PEGA | Pegasystems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02062026 | ORCL | Oracle | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.8% | 1.8% | -1.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 226.55 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,343.5 |
| Rev LTM | 186,494 |
| Op Inc LTM | 50,326 |
| FCF LTM | 12,928 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 18,187 |
| CFO LTM | 81,514 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 67,139 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,343.5 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | 18.9 |
| P/E | 24.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -22.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -17.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 92.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 27.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $146.02 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 418.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/12/1986 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -55.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $159.59 | $219.00 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -8.5% | -33.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 51.4% | 61.9% |
| Downside Capture | 233.79 | 179.24 |
| Upside Capture | 117.48 | 148.86 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 44.0% | 41.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.47 | 2.22 | 2.43 | 1.82 | 1.40 | 1.41 |
| Up Beta | 2.18 | 1.27 | 1.69 | -0.17 | 1.07 | 1.10 |
| Down Beta | 2.02 | 2.42 | 2.94 | 2.05 | 1.33 | 1.45 |
| Up Capture | 169% | 112% | 129% | 137% | 211% | 404% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 17 | 30 | 55 | 129 | 409 |
| Down Capture | 338% | 318% | 289% | 226% | 143% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 31 | 69 | 122 | 341 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | -4.8% | 61.7% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 26.4% | 26.6% | 0.85 | 52.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 18.8% | 0.63 | 41.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 51.3% | 27.2% | 1.51 | 3.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.5% | 0.84 | 20.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.7% | 16.4% | -0.13 | 15.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.2% | 43.9% | -0.36 | 28.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 18.6% | 39.9% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.0% | 24.6% | 0.62 | 54.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.4% | 17.0% | 0.57 | 48.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.5% | 0.97 | 6.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 12.0% | 18.9% | 0.52 | 11.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 26.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 56.7% | 0.29 | 16.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 15.5% | 33.7% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.5% | 24.2% | 0.81 | 57.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.3% | 17.9% | 0.68 | 54.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 4.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 16.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 34.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.1% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 11.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/10/2026 | 9.2% | 3.5% | |
| 12/10/2025 | -10.8% | -20.0% | -8.0% |
| 9/9/2025 | 35.9% | 27.0% | 19.5% |
| 6/11/2025 | 13.3% | 19.6% | 33.5% |
| 3/10/2025 | -3.1% | 3.5% | -16.3% |
| 12/9/2024 | -6.7% | -10.1% | -18.7% |
| 9/9/2024 | 11.4% | 21.8% | 24.6% |
| 6/11/2024 | 13.3% | 16.8% | 17.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 15 | 18 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 11.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -8.5% | -14.9% |
| Max Positive | 35.9% | 27.0% | 33.7% |
| Max Negative | -13.5% | -20.0% | -18.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2026 | 03/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 12/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 12/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 09/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 12/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/20/2023 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 12/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 09/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/21/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 3/10/2026 | Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 12/10/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue Growth | 18.0% | 19.0% | 20.0% | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2026 Cloud Revenue Growth | 44.0% | 46.0% | 48.0% | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2026 EPS Growth | 15.0% | 16.0% | 17.0% | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2026 EPS | 1.92 | 1.94 | 1.96 | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Revenue | 67.00 Bil | Higher New | |||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 50.00 Bil | Higher New | |||||
| 2027 Revenue | 90.00 Bil | Raised | |||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hura, Mark | Pres., Global Field Operations | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 196.89 | 15,000 | 2,953,314 | 46,086,859 | Form |
| 2 | Seligman, Naomi O | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 196.61 | 2,223 | 437,064 | 5,032,430 | Form | |
| 3 | Magouyrk, Clayton M | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 192.52 | 10,000 | 1,925,152 | 27,727,964 | Form |
| 4 | Berg, Jeffrey | The Berg Family Trust | Sell | 10302025 | 283.02 | 49,365 | 13,971,267 | 43,018,709 | Form | |
| 5 | Smith, Maria | EVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 10232025 | 280.00 | 5,000 | 1,400,000 | 14,583,240 | Form |
ORCL Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The Probability-Adjusted Skew of 2.48x is highly attractive. The investment thesis hinges on a 'Cyclical' re-acceleration driven by a powerful AI tailwind (Regime B). While the execution risk is significant, the sheer magnitude of the $523B RPO provides a rare degree of forward visibility. The market is offering a compelling risk/reward for betting on management's ability to execute against this secured demand.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type C: 'Cyclical / Commodity'Oracle is experiencing a massive, non-linear wave of demand for AI compute capacity, which behaves like a commodity. The company's 'CYCLICAL RE-ACCELERATION' phase, heavy CapEx, and negative free cash flow require valuing it based on normalized future earnings power, fitting the 'Cyclical Inversion' logic.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis rests on Oracle's ability to convert its massive $523 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), accumulated from large-scale AI infrastructure deals, into recognized revenue. This revenue re-acceleration, combined with an expected expansion of cloud gross margins from an initial ~14% towards a mature target of ~35%, should drive significant EPS growth.
- Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) of $523B, up 438% YoY as of Q2 FY26.
- Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) revenue growth accelerated to 66% YoY in Q2 FY26.
- Major, multi-year AI contract wins with customers like OpenAI, Meta, and NVIDIA.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is the immense operational and financial risk associated with building out the necessary data center capacity to service the $523B RPO. This involves a massive capital expenditure cycle ($12B in Q2 FY26), significant new debt and equity financing ($45-$50B planned), and vulnerability to supply chain or labor disruptions, which could delay revenue recognition and strain the balance sheet.
- Negative Free Cash Flow of ~$10B in Q2 FY26 driven by a $12B capital expenditure.
- Announced plan to raise $45 to $50 billion in calendar year 2026 through debt and equity.
- A securities fraud lawsuit filed in Feb 2026 alleges Oracle has pushed back completion dates for some OpenAI data centers.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Revenue Growth YoY | > 50% | This is the most direct indicator of Oracle's ability to convert its backlog into recognized revenue. A sustained growth rate above 50% validates the execution of the Alpha Driver. |
| Quarterly Free Cash Flow (FCF) | Return to Positive within 4-6 Quarters | This metric is the focal point of the bear thesis. A return to positive FCF would signal that the peak of the capital expenditure cycle is passing and that the new contracts are beginning to generate cash. |
| Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) Growth YoY | > 20% YoY | While the hyper-growth of 438% is not sustainable, continued strong double-digit growth in the RPO is necessary to show that demand remains robust and the growth story extends beyond the initial large deals. |
The $50B Capex Gamble: AI Backlog vs. Balance Sheet Burn
BULL VIEW
The record backlog is a leading indicator of massive future revenue. The current cash burn is a strategic, time-bound investment to secure years of durable, high-margin growth.
CORE TENSION
Can Oracle convert its massive $523B AI-driven backlog into profitable revenue before its aggressive capex, negative free cash flow, and rising debt trigger a balance sheet crisis?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The core conflict is captured by the record $523B RPO versus the negative free cash flow and planned $45-$50B in new financing for calendar year 2026.
BEAR VIEW
The negative free cash flow and reliance on external financing create extreme execution risk. There's a dangerous disconnect between booked revenue and actual cash generation, stressing the balance sheet.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
March 8, 2026 | Q3 FY26 Earnings Call & Balance Sheet Update Watch: Free Cash Flow trend and any change to full-year CapEx guidance. Also, the rate of decline in high-margin legacy license revenue. |
April 2026 | VA EHR System Go-Live at First Hospital Watch: VA or OIG press releases regarding system stability, patient safety incidents, or further delays post-relaunch. Any news flow is critical. |
Anytime (post-capital raise) | Credit Rating Agency Review Watch: Official statements from S&P or Moody's regarding Oracle's credit rating and outlook following the planned $45B+ capital raise. |
H1 2026 | European Commission DMA Decision Watch: Formal designation of Oracle's cloud services under the Digital Markets Act (DMA) or the opening of a formal antitrust investigation. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
8/21/2025 | Oracle CloudWorld Keynote Details: Annual user conference showcasing new product features and AI partnerships. The muted stock reaction suggests the key announcements were largely anticipated by the market at this point. | Muted (-0.8%) $234.03 -> $232.14 |
9/10/2025 | Q1 FY26 Earnings & Forecast Details: Despite a 10% decline in legacy license revenue, the stock surged on an exceptionally strong forecast driven by initial large-scale AI infrastructure demand, which surprised investors. | Surged +35.9% $240.45 -> $326.89 |
11/20/2025 | Insider Selling Concerns Details: Heightened market focus on consistent insider selling by executives, coupled with no open market buys, contributed to negative sentiment amidst falling stock prices and pending litigation. | Plummeted -11.9% $224.93 -> $198.23 |
12/10/2025 | Q2 FY26 Earnings & Guidance Details: Despite a massive EPS beat and RPO surging 438% to $523B on AI deals, the stock fell on total revenue that slightly missed estimates and rising debt concerns. | Plummeted -10.8% $222.42 -> $198.32 |
1/28/2026 | Negative OIG Report on Oracle Health (Cerner) Details: A U.S. Office of Inspector General report detailed 'major challenges' with the Oracle Health EHR system, raising execution risk ahead of the planned VA rollout restart. | Slight -1.2% pullback $174.90 -> $172.80 |
2/4/2026 | Planned Capital Raise Announcement Details: Reports surfaced that Oracle plans to raise $45-$50 billion in calendar year 2026 to fund AI capex, intensifying investor concerns about debt and cash flow. | Plummeted -6.9% $146.67 -> $136.48 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
The stock is in an Explosive volatility regime (6.55x S&P). While the growth story is compelling, the Neutral sentiment and Medium visibility, combined with extreme volatility, cap the position size.
Diversification Alternatives
MSFT
SECTOROffers exposure to the same AI cloud growth theme with a mature, highly profitable business model, avoiding Oracle's balance sheet and execution risk from its massive capex cycle.
CRM
SECTORA pure-play cloud software leader that is not undergoing a capital-intensive infrastructure buildout. Offers a different risk profile focused on application growth rather than infrastructure execution.
Oracle is transforming from a legacy database and on-premise software provider into a high-growth cloud infrastructure (IaaS) and AI platform, competing directly with hyperscalers, as evidenced by a 438% YoY increase in Remaining Performance Obligations to $523 billion.
Filter all news through the lens of Oracle's AI-driven cloud transition and its ability to convert its massive backlog into revenue and free cash flow.
Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue growth >+50% YoY; new multi-billion dollar IaaS contracts with named AI leaders (beyond existing Meta, NVIDIA, OpenAI); evidence of converting the $523B RPO into recognized revenue faster than the guided ~10% in the next 12 months.
OCI growth deceleration below 40%; major AI customer (e.g., OpenAI, xAI) defection or partnership reduction; significant delays in data center build-out impacting backlog conversion; continued negative free cash flow due to CapEx exceeding operating cash flow.
Quarterly fluctuations in the legacy on-premise license business; minor acquisitions of niche software companies; competitive benchmark claims from rivals without third-party validation.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is re-rating Oracle based on its emergence as a key infrastructure provider for the AI boom, demonstrated by a massive $523 billion Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) backlog driven by large-scale IaaS contracts with AI developers like OpenAI, Meta, NVIDIA, and xAI. The catalyst's sustainability depends on Oracle's ability to finance and build out its data center capacity to convert this backlog into revenue.
Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS)
$16.4B TTM (25% of Total) · 35% MarginWhat It Is
Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) compute instances (including NVIDIA GPU clusters), storage, networking, and Autonomous Database services.
Who Pays & How
AI companies (OpenAI, Meta, NVIDIA, xAI) and large enterprises pay for massive-scale, high-performance computing capacity for training AI models. Lock-in is created by the complexity and cost of migrating vast datasets and retuning models for other cloud platforms.
Competition
Cloud Applications & ERP (SaaS)
$15.6B TTM (24% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Fusion Cloud ERP, NetSuite Cloud ERP, industry-specific applications (e.g., healthcare via Cerner), Human Capital Management (HCM), Supply Chain Management (SCM).
Who Pays & How
Enterprises pay recurring fees to manage core business functions (finance, HR, supply chain). Switching costs are extremely high due to deep integration into business processes, data migration complexity, and employee retraining requirements.
Competition
Legacy Software & Hardware
$23.6B TTM (37% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
On-premise database licenses, software license updates, product support, and hardware systems (e.g., Exadata).
Who Pays & How
Long-standing enterprise customers pay highly profitable maintenance and support fees on legacy on-premise software. This is a durable but shrinking revenue stream as workloads migrate to the cloud.
Competition
Services
$8.8B TTM (14% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Consulting, implementation, and education services for Oracle's software and cloud portfolio.
Who Pays & How
Customers pay for professional services to implement, customize, and manage their Oracle software and cloud environments.
Competition
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