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Outset Medical (OM)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.72 | Market Cap: $83.7 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services

Outset Medical (OM)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.72
Market Cap: $83.7 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -144%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -172%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -79 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -66%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Remote Patient Monitoring, Diabetes Management, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -57%
2   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 8221%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -33%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 1950%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Remote Patient Monitoring, Diabetes Management, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -144%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -172%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -79 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -66%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -57%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 8221%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -33%
8 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 1950%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the approximate 66.1% stock movement for Outset Medical (OM) from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025: 1. Outset Medical reported disappointing Third Quarter 2025 financial results on November 10, 2025, missing consensus estimates for both non-GAAP earnings per share and revenue. The company reported non-GAAP earnings per share of –$0.69, missing estimates by $0.03, and revenue of $29.43 million, falling short of expectations by $1.27 million.

2. The company significantly lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance. On November 10, 2025, Outset Medical revised its 2025 revenue outlook downward to a range of $115 million to $120 million, from its previous range of $122 million to $126 million. This revision was attributed to delays in closing several large opportunities that were then expected to materialize in the fourth quarter or early 2026.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OM Return--19%-44%-79%-79%-72%-99%
Peers Return42%3%-9%-5%-14%36%47%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OM Win Rate33%50%50%42%58%40% 
Peers Win Rate40%33%32%28%25%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OM Max Drawdown--35%-75%-88%-92%-97% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-12%-25%-25%-21%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: A, ATEC, CERS, BLLN, BNBX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-94.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1851.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-29.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven39 days148 days

Compare to A, ATEC, CERS, BLLN, BNBX


In The Past

Outset Medical's stock fell -94.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/30/2021. A -94.9% loss requires a 1851.8% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Outset Medical (OM)

Better Bets than Outset Medical (OM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Outset Medical

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OMAATECCERSBLLNBNBXMedian
NameOutset M.Agilent .Alphatec Cerus BillionT.BNB Plus  
Mkt Price4.72148.3221.282.10104.023.1013.00
Mkt Cap0.142.13.20.4--1.8
Rev LTM1196,788728199-4199
Op Inc LTM-791,444-74-9--13-13
FCF LTM-681,088-30--14-3
FCF 3Y Avg-1191,308-112-15--10-15
CFO LTM-681,495354--134
CFO 3Y Avg-1161,662-36-12--10-12

Growth & Margins

OMAATECCERSBLLNBNBXMedian
NameOutset M.Agilent .Alphatec Cerus BillionT.BNB Plus  
Rev Chg LTM2.5%4.5%27.1%13.0%--51.0%4.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.3%0.8%31.8%8.3%--12.6%3.3%
Rev Chg Q14.7%10.1%30.4%14.5%-34.3%14.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.5%2.4%6.7%3.5%-7.5%3.5%
Op Mgn LTM-66.2%21.3%-10.1%-4.8%--306.1%-10.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-108.4%21.5%-21.8%-11.9%--170.3%-21.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM14.4%-0.1%3.8%1.3%-42.9%3.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-56.6%22.0%4.8%1.8%--301.5%1.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-94.8%24.6%-7.6%-7.5%--141.9%-7.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-57.3%16.0%-0.5%0.1%--313.1%-0.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-97.4%19.4%-21.7%-9.7%--147.0%-21.7%

Valuation

OMAATECCERSBLLNBNBXMedian
NameOutset M.Agilent .Alphatec Cerus BillionT.BNB Plus  
Mkt Cap0.142.13.20.4--1.8
P/S2.94.93.01.5--2.9
P/EBIT-4.322.2-19.2-42.1---11.8
P/E-3.527.5-14.2-19.1---8.8
P/CFO-5.022.462.885.5--42.6
Total Yield-28.7%4.5%-7.0%-5.2%---6.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.8%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-426.4%3.7%-11.2%-5.1%---8.1%
D/E0.30.10.30.3--0.3
Net D/E-0.30.10.20.1--0.1

Returns

OMAATECCERSBLLNBNBXMedian
NameOutset M.Agilent .Alphatec Cerus BillionT.BNB Plus  
1M Rtn-63.0%1.5%9.6%44.8%--9.1%1.5%
3M Rtn-64.6%15.7%28.6%57.9%--22.1%
6M Rtn-76.5%30.7%71.1%52.2%--41.4%
12M Rtn-73.6%6.6%111.7%17.3%--12.0%
3Y Rtn-98.5%-0.7%118.3%-47.4%---24.0%
1M Excs Rtn-64.3%0.3%8.3%43.6%--10.4%0.3%
3M Excs Rtn-72.1%9.6%24.0%52.1%--16.8%
6M Excs Rtn-91.9%15.3%55.6%36.7%--26.0%
12M Excs Rtn-78.6%-6.3%95.0%-3.4%---4.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-171.7%-72.8%44.5%-115.7%---94.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Consoles6165653312
Consumables42291972
Service and other revenue272218101
Total1301151035015


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,096,697
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202521.3%
Average Daily Volume978,307
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.14
Basic Shares Quantity17,743,000
Short % of Basic Shares11.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022213202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211104202110-Q 9/30/2021