Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -128%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -145%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 226%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -42%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.7%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 8.0%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Water Infrastructure, Offshore Wind Development, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -42%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 8.0%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Water Infrastructure, Offshore Wind Development, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -128%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -145%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 226%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.7%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OEC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Orion S.A. (OEC) experienced a significant stock price decline of -51.4% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, primarily due to a series of unfavorable financial announcements and challenging market conditions.

1. Significantly Reduced Full-Year 2025 Guidance: On October 13, 2025, Orion announced preliminary third-quarter results and substantially lowered its full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $220-$235 million, down from a previous forecast of $270-$290 million. This revised outlook, driven by weaker demand in Western tire markets and inventory adjustments, triggered an immediate negative reaction from investors.

2. Weak Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance: The official third-quarter 2025 results, released on November 4, 2025, confirmed lower-than-expected performance. The company reported net sales of $450.9 million, a year-over-year decrease of $12.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $57.7 million, a 28% decline compared to the previous year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.29 missed analyst estimates.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OEC Return-10%7%-2%56%-43%-68%-73%
Peers Return13%33%-33%-1%19%13%33%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OEC Win Rate58%58%42%58%50%20% 
Peers Win Rate43%48%28%37%37%36% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OEC Max Drawdown-67%-11%-27%-2%-46%-72% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-2%-46%-27%-31%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FUL, GEVO, FSI, LOOP, VRDE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOECS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven128 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-67.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven203.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven336 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-65.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven191.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to FUL, GEVO, FSI, LOOP, VRDE


In The Past

Orion's stock fell -40.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/6/2021. A -40.2% loss requires a 67.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Orion (OEC)

Better Bets than Orion (OEC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OEC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Orion

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OECFULGEVOFSILOOPVRDEMedian
NameOrion H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Verde Bi. 
Mkt Price5.1358.922.336.831.07-5.13
Mkt Cap0.33.20.50.10.1-0.3
Rev LTM1,8293,502803711-80
Op Inc LTM105349-496-1-6
FCF LTM34121-920-1-0
FCF 3Y Avg45220-1091-16-1
CFO LTM217242-565-1-5
CFO 3Y Avg231348-556-14-6

Growth & Margins

OECFULGEVOFSILOOPVRDEMedian
NameOrion H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Verde Bi. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.3%-1.3%341.8%-1.5%11,012.0%--1.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-2.3%-1.7%729.7%-2.0%3,661.4%--1.7%
Rev Chg Q-2.7%-2.8%725.3%8.0%-100.0%--2.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.7%-0.7%90.8%2.3%-0.2%--0.2%
Op Mgn LTM5.8%10.0%-60.6%16.0%-13.3%-5.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.6%10.5%-494.2%12.9%-13,399.3%-8.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.4%0.2%126.0%3.2%16.5%-3.2%
CFO/Rev LTM11.9%6.9%-70.4%13.4%-8.5%-6.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.3%9.8%-303.8%14.1%-12,027.4%-9.8%
FCF/Rev LTM1.9%3.5%-114.6%1.0%-10.9%-1.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.4%6.2%-691.7%3.4%-13,970.5%-2.4%

Valuation

OECFULGEVOFSILOOPVRDEMedian
NameOrion H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Verde Bi. 
Mkt Cap0.33.20.50.10.1-0.3
P/S0.20.93.81.66.4-1.6
P/EBIT12.810.6-6.410.5-6.4-10.5
P/E-13.428.5-5.320.2-6.1--5.3
P/CFO2.013.5-5.412.3-74.4-2.0
Total Yield-6.9%4.7%-19.0%5.0%-16.5%--6.9%
Dividend Yield0.6%1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.8%5.7%-49.1%4.4%-12.5%-4.4%
D/E2.40.60.60.10.0-0.6
Net D/E2.30.60.4-0.0-0.1-0.4

Returns

OECFULGEVOFSILOOPVRDEMedian
NameOrion H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Verde Bi. 
1M Rtn-3.2%2.7%2.6%-23.0%-35.2%--3.2%
3M Rtn-49.1%0.3%42.9%-31.1%-32.3%--31.1%
6M Rtn-54.6%6.0%104.4%56.7%-31.8%-6.0%
12M Rtn-72.8%-21.4%57.4%78.7%-22.7%--21.4%
3Y Rtn-72.6%-23.8%8.9%130.6%-61.1%--23.8%
1M Excs Rtn-3.2%2.7%2.7%-23.0%-35.1%--3.2%
3M Excs Rtn-55.6%-8.8%37.6%-36.8%-41.7%--36.8%
6M Excs Rtn-69.3%-8.7%89.7%41.9%-46.6%--8.7%
12M Excs Rtn-85.5%-35.7%27.7%54.9%-41.3%--35.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-144.6%-94.3%-55.1%68.2%-132.9%--94.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Rubber1,2831,356949691968
Specialty611675598445508
Corporate00   
Total1,8942,0311,5471,1361,476


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Rubber144103  86
Specialty61103  84
Corporate10  -23
Corporate Charges -9   
Gain related to litigation settlement 0   
Total205197  147


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Rubber1,0141,086912789697
Specialty703647582467418
Corporate116156137134143
Total1,8331,8891,6311,3901,257


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,013,289
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.1%
Average Daily Volume1,040,144
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity56,046,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021