Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 71%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 64%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, CFO LTM is 126 Bil, FCF LTM is 119 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 103 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, Show more.

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 20x

Key risks
NVDA key risks include [1] U.S. Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 71%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 64%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, CFO LTM is 126 Bil, FCF LTM is 119 Bil
3 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 103 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, Show more.
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 20x
7 Key risks
NVDA key risks include [1] U.S. Show more.

NVDA in ETFs

Weight = NVDA's share of each fund

SPY7.6%
VOO7.9%
IVV7.6%
VTI6.7%
ITOT6.7%
QQQ7.9%
QQQM8.0%
DIA2.3%
+50 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/12/2026

NVIDIA (NVDA) stock has gained about 20% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Record Fiscal Q1 2027 Financial Performance and Robust Guidance Fueled by Data Center Growth. NVIDIA reported record revenue of $81.6 billion for fiscal Q1 2027 (ended April 26, 2026), marking an 85% year-over-year increase and a 20% sequential rise, significantly exceeding analyst estimates. This was largely driven by its Data Center segment, which achieved record revenue of $75.2 billion, up 92% from the prior year. The company also provided strong guidance for fiscal Q2 2027, projecting revenue of $91.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, with an anticipated gross margin of 75.0%, signaling continued strong growth.

2. Enhanced Shareholder Returns Through Increased Dividends and Substantial Share Repurchase Authorization. During fiscal Q1 2027, NVIDIA returned approximately $20.0 billion to shareholders via share repurchases and cash dividends. The company further bolstered investor confidence by approving an additional $80.0 billion share repurchase authorization without expiration and significantly increasing its quarterly cash dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share.

Show more
Updated on 7/12/2026

NVIDIA (NVDA) stock has gained about 20% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Record Fiscal Q1 2027 Financial Performance and Robust Guidance Fueled by Data Center Growth. NVIDIA reported record revenue of $81.6 billion for fiscal Q1 2027 (ended April 26, 2026), marking an 85% year-over-year increase and a 20% sequential rise, significantly exceeding analyst estimates. This was largely driven by its Data Center segment, which achieved record revenue of $75.2 billion, up 92% from the prior year. The company also provided strong guidance for fiscal Q2 2027, projecting revenue of $91.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, with an anticipated gross margin of 75.0%, signaling continued strong growth.

2. Enhanced Shareholder Returns Through Increased Dividends and Substantial Share Repurchase Authorization. During fiscal Q1 2027, NVIDIA returned approximately $20.0 billion to shareholders via share repurchases and cash dividends. The company further bolstered investor confidence by approving an additional $80.0 billion share repurchase authorization without expiration and significantly increasing its quarterly cash dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share.

3. Sustained and Accelerating Global Demand for AI Infrastructure. The "buildout of AI factories" is accelerating, described by NVIDIA's CEO as the "largest infrastructure expansion in human history". The extraordinary growth in Data Center revenue, particularly a 199% year-over-year increase in Data Center networking revenue, reflects robust demand for NVIDIA's Blackwell 300 products and related networking solutions. Analysts anticipate Data Center compute revenue for the second half of fiscal 2027 to be approximately 20% above Wall Street consensus, underscoring the ongoing strong demand for AI processing capabilities.

4. Easing of U.S. Export Controls to the UAE Opening New Market Opportunities. On July 10, 2026, NVIDIA's stock experienced a 4.03% increase following news that the U.S. administration eased some export policies concerning the United Arab Emirates. This development is seen as potentially allowing the UAE to acquire advanced AI chips, thus expanding NVIDIA's addressable market and creating a new revenue stream.

5. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Favorable Valuation Reset. Wall Street analysts have maintained a bullish outlook on NVIDIA, with a median price target of $308.5 and numerous "Buy" or "Outperform" ratings issued in the last six months. Despite hitting historic highs, the company's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio had contracted to 21.18x, approaching its valuation prior to the major AI boom, which analysts viewed as attractive given its strong earnings momentum.

Show less
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 22.0% change in NVDA stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)33120267152026Change
Stock Price ($)174.20212.5022.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)215,938253,49117.4%
Net Income Margin (%)55.6%63.0%13.2%
P/E Multiple35.332.3-8.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)24,30224,2860.1%
Cumulative Contribution22.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NVDA22.0% 
Market (SPY)16.1%62.1%
Sector (XLK)36.6%64.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 14.1% change in NVDA stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)123120257152026Change
Stock Price ($)186.27212.5014.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)187,142253,49135.5%
Net Income Margin (%)53.0%63.0%18.8%
P/E Multiple45.732.3-29.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)24,32724,2860.2%
Cumulative Contribution14.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NVDA14.1% 
Market (SPY)11.0%67.9%
Sector (XLK)26.3%70.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 34.7% change in NVDA stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 70.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)63020257152026Change
Stock Price ($)157.78212.5034.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)148,515253,49170.7%
Net Income Margin (%)51.7%63.0%21.8%
P/E Multiple50.232.3-35.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)24,44124,2860.6%
Cumulative Contribution34.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NVDA34.7% 
Market (SPY)23.2%64.7%
Sector (XLK)44.0%72.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 403.3% change in NVDA stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 879.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)63020237152026Change
Stock Price ($)42.22212.50403.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)25,878253,491879.6%
Net Income Margin (%)18.5%63.0%240.0%
P/E Multiple217.632.3-85.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)24,70024,2861.7%
Cumulative Contribution403.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NVDA403.3% 
Market (SPY)76.3%66.8%
Sector (XLK)112.8%78.0%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NVDA Return125%-50%239%171%39%14%1529%
Peers Return45%-42%85%25%41%106%461%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%101%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NVDA Win Rate58%42%75%75%67%57% 
Peers Win Rate62%38%65%53%52%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%57% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NVDA Max Drawdown-24%-63%-18%-27%-37%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-51%-22%-40%-41%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMD, INTC, AVGO, QCOM, MRVL. See NVDA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/15/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventNVDAS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-32.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven47.6%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven60 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-26.7%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven36.4%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven68 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-11.7%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven13.3%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven11 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-62.7%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven168.1%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven215 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-37.6%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven60.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven56 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-55.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven125.4%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven417 days105 days

Compare to AMD, INTC, AVGO, QCOM, MRVL

In The Past

NVIDIA's stock fell -32.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventNVDAS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-32.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven47.6%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven60 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-26.7%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven36.4%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven68 days18 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-62.7%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven168.1%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven215 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-37.6%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven60.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven56 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-55.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven125.4%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven417 days105 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-21.8%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.8%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven26 days123 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-45.0%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven81.8%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven160 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-83.7%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven514.4%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven2680 days1085 days

Compare to AMD, INTC, AVGO, QCOM, MRVL

In The Past

NVIDIA's stock fell -32.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NVIDIA (NVDA)

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is a leading technology company that designs and manufactures graphics processing units (GPUs) and develops sophisticated computing and networking solutions. While initially renowned for revolutionizing PC gaming with its GeForce GPUs, the company has significantly diversified its portfolio. Today, NVIDIA's core business involves creating advanced hardware and software that power everything from immersive gaming experiences and professional visualization to artificial intelligence (AI), high-performance computing (HPC), and autonomous systems.

The company's main products and services are primarily categorized into two segments. Its Graphics segment provides GeForce GPUs for gaming PCs and cloud gaming services like GeForce NOW, alongside Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstations and professional design. This segment also includes software for cloud-based visual computing and its Omniverse platform for 3D design and virtual world development. The Compute & Networking segment offers Data Center platforms for AI and accelerated computing, Mellanox networking solutions, and comprehensive automotive platforms for AI cockpits, autonomous driving, and infotainment systems. Other products include Jetson for robotics and embedded platforms, and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software.

NVIDIA serves a broad global customer base across several key markets, including gaming, professional visualization, data centers, and automotive. Its innovative products and solutions are sold to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), cloud and Internet service providers, automotive manufacturers and their suppliers, system builders, retailers, and various other technology ecosystem participants. Essentially, NVIDIA provides the underlying GPU and accelerated computing technology that enables cutting-edge applications and advancements across a multitude of industries worldwide.

AI Analysis | Feedback

1. Intel for AI and advanced graphics chips.

2. The electric utility for AI and high-performance computing.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • GeForce GPUs: Graphics processing units primarily for gaming and personal computers.
  • GeForce NOW: A cloud-based game streaming service.
  • NVIDIA RTX/Quadro GPUs: Professional-grade graphics processing units for enterprise workstations and creative applications.
  • vGPU Software: Software enabling virtualized graphics and computing in cloud environments.
  • Omniverse Software: A platform for 3D design collaboration and building virtual worlds.
  • Data Center Platforms: Integrated hardware and software systems for AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and accelerated computing in data centers.
  • Mellanox Networking: High-performance networking and interconnect solutions for data centers and supercomputers.
  • Autonomous Driving Solutions: Comprehensive platforms, software, and development agreements for autonomous vehicles and AI-powered automotive cockpits.
  • Jetson Platforms: Compact, high-performance computing platforms for robotics and other embedded AI applications.
  • NVIDIA AI Enterprise: A software suite and framework for accelerating enterprise AI deployment and development.
  • Cryptocurrency Mining Processors (CMPs): Specialized processors designed for efficient cryptocurrency mining.

AI Analysis | Feedback

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) primarily sells its products to other companies rather than directly to individuals. The company's customer base includes various enterprise segments as outlined in its description.

Based on the provided background and general market knowledge consistent with NVIDIA's operations, its major customers are found within the categories of Internet and Cloud Service Providers, Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)/System Builders, and Automotive Manufacturers. While the background description lists categories of customers, the following are prominent examples of major companies within those categories that are widely recognized as significant customers of NVIDIA:

  • Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - As a major cloud service provider (Azure) and enterprise software vendor, Microsoft utilizes NVIDIA's data center GPUs for AI, HPC, and cloud computing infrastructure.
  • Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) - Through its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division, Amazon is a substantial consumer of NVIDIA's data center GPUs to power its cloud AI, machine learning, and high-performance computing services.
  • Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) - Google Cloud Platform, a subsidiary of Alphabet, also heavily relies on NVIDIA's GPU technology for its AI workloads, data analytics, and various cloud services.
  • Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) - As a leading OEM and system builder, Dell integrates NVIDIA's GPUs into its servers, workstations, and personal computers, catering to enterprise, professional visualization, and gaming markets.
  • Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG.DE) - Mercedes-Benz has a strategic partnership with NVIDIA for developing software-defined vehicles and next-generation in-car computing platforms, including AI Cockpit and autonomous driving solutions.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM)

SK Hynix Inc. (000660.KS)

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930.KS)

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Jensen Huang
Founder, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Jensen Huang co-founded NVIDIA in 1993 and has served as its President and CEO since its inception. He previously gained experience in the tech industry, working at Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and LSI Logic Corporation, where he rose to become a division director. Huang earned a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering from Oregon State University and a master's degree in electrical engineering from Stanford University. Under his leadership, NVIDIA navigated early challenges, including near-bankruptcy in the 1990s, and expanded into GPU production, high-performance computing, and artificial intelligence.

Colette Kress
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Colette Kress joined NVIDIA in September 2013 as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, overseeing the company's financial strategy and operations. She has over three decades of experience in senior finance roles within the technology sector. Before NVIDIA, Kress spent three years as Senior Vice President and CFO of Cisco's Business Technology and Operations Finance organization. Prior to that, she worked for 13 years at Microsoft, including four years as CFO of the Server and Tools division, and held various senior corporate planning and finance positions. She began her career at Texas Instruments. Kress holds an MBA from Southern Methodist University and a bachelor's degree in finance from the University of Arizona.

Chris A. Malachowsky
Founder and NVIDIA Fellow

Chris A. Malachowsky is a co-founder of NVIDIA and currently serves as an NVIDIA Fellow. He has held various positions at the company since its founding in 1993, overseeing areas such as IT, operations, and product engineering. Before co-founding NVIDIA, Malachowsky held engineering and technical leadership roles at companies including Hewlett-Packard and Sun Microsystems.

Debora Shoquist
Executive Vice President, Operations

Debora Shoquist serves as the Executive Vice President of Operations at NVIDIA, a role she has held since joining the company in 2007. With over two decades of experience prior to NVIDIA, she managed operations at various companies, including Quantum and Coherent.

Jay Puri
Executive Vice President, Worldwide Field Operations

Jay Puri is the Executive Vice President of Worldwide Field Operations at NVIDIA, responsible for overseeing the company's global business, including sales, partnerships, program management, and support services. Prior to joining NVIDIA in 2005, Puri accumulated over two decades of experience in sales, marketing, and management, including a significant tenure as Senior Vice President of the Asia-Pacific Group at Sun Microsystems, and roles at Hewlett-Packard, Booz Allen, and Texas Instruments.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to NVIDIA's business include:

  1. Intensifying Competition from Hyperscalers and Rivals: A significant risk to NVIDIA stems from its largest customers, major hyperscalers such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, increasingly developing their own custom artificial intelligence (AI) chips and accelerators (e.g., Google's TPU, Amazon's Inferentia/Tranium, Microsoft's Maia, Meta's MTIA, and Tesla's Dojo D1). This trend aims to reduce their dependence on NVIDIA and optimize hardware for their specific AI workloads, particularly for inference, which could erode NVIDIA's market share and revenue from its critical Data Center segment. Additionally, traditional rivals like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) with its MI300 series and Intel with its Gaudi accelerators are ramping up competition in the AI chip market.
  2. Geopolitical Tensions and Export Controls: NVIDIA operates in a global market and faces substantial geopolitical risks, especially regarding U.S. government restrictions on selling advanced AI chips to China and other regions. China has historically been a major market for NVIDIA, significantly contributing to its data center revenue. These export controls can directly reduce sales, necessitate product redesigns, create uncertainty for customers, and enable local competitors to gain traction, thereby impacting NVIDIA's growth prospects and operational complexity.
  3. Reliance on the AI Boom and Potential for Decelerating AI Spending: NVIDIA's recent explosive revenue growth has been largely fueled by the high demand for AI infrastructure, particularly for training large AI models. However, the business faces a risk if enterprises or hyperscalers slow down their AI capital expenditures, overbuild their infrastructure, or if the evolution of AI workloads shifts away from NVIDIA's primary offerings (e.g., toward more efficient inference or custom accelerators). The market's extremely high expectations for NVIDIA's continued rapid growth also make the company vulnerable to any perceived deceleration in AI spending or shifts in technological requirements.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The following are clear emerging threats for NVIDIA:

  • Major cloud service providers and hyperscalers developing their own custom AI accelerators and chips: Companies such as Google (TPUs), Amazon (Inferentia/Trainium), and Microsoft are investing significantly in designing specialized silicon tailored for AI and machine learning workloads within their own data centers. This strategic shift aims to optimize performance, reduce operational costs, and decrease reliance on third-party GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA for critical AI infrastructure.
  • Automotive manufacturers and autonomous driving companies designing their own custom AI and autonomous driving chips: A growing number of prominent automotive companies and autonomous vehicle developers are pursuing in-house development of specialized silicon for advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving capabilities. This trend could reduce the market demand for NVIDIA's automotive AI platforms and solutions.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the addressable market sizes for NVIDIA's main products and services:

  • Gaming GPUs (GeForce GPUs): The global gaming GPU market size was estimated at USD 87.57 billion in 2025.
  • Professional Visualization (Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs): The global advanced visualization market was valued at US$3.78 billion in 2024.
  • Automotive Platforms (AI Cockpit, Autonomous Driving, ADAS): The global automotive advanced driver assistance system market size was estimated at USD 68.26 billion in 2025.
  • Data Center Platforms and Systems:
    • AI Data Center (including GPU-based compute servers): The global AI Data Center Market size is anticipated to grow from USD 236.44 billion in 2025.
    • High Performance Computing (HPC): The global high performance computing market size was valued at USD 59.33 billion in 2025.
    • Data Center Networking Solutions (Mellanox): The global Data Center Networking Market is projected to grow from USD 55.64 billion in 2025.
  • Omniverse Software (Industrial Metaverse): The global industrial metaverse market size was valued at USD 29.05 billion in 2025.
  • Jetson (Robotics and Embedded Platforms): The global embedded AI market size was valued at USD 11.7 billion in 2025.

AI Analysis | Feedback

NVIDIA (NVDA) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:

  1. Sustained Demand for Data Center AI Infrastructure: NVIDIA anticipates continued exponential growth in demand for its AI computing power and data center platforms. Hyperscalers, cloud service providers, and enterprises are expected to maintain heavy investments in AI infrastructure, including NVIDIA's GPUs and accelerated computing solutions. The company's Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin architectures are key to meeting this demand. NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang has projected cumulative revenue from 2025-2027 for AI infrastructure to exceed $1 trillion.
  2. Expansion into Diverse AI Applications and Vertical Markets: Beyond traditional data center applications, NVIDIA expects significant growth from the expansion of AI into new and diverse vertical industries. These include automotive, financial services, healthcare, and robotics. The adoption of generative AI workloads, such as data preparation, large language model (LLM) fine-tuning, and retrieval augmented generation, is increasingly driving enterprise demand.
  3. Growth in the Automotive Segment: The automotive sector is a crucial growth driver, particularly with the increasing adoption of autonomous driving and AI cockpit solutions. Automakers are incorporating NVIDIA's DRIVE platform for software-defined autonomous vehicle fleets. Strategic partnerships with companies like Li Auto, Great Wall Motor, ZEEKR, Xiaomi EV, Hyundai, and Kia underscore this growth.
  4. Continuous Introduction of New Products and Architectural Advancements: NVIDIA's pipeline of new product launches and architectural innovations will be vital for future revenue. This includes new generations of GPUs like the Blackwell Ultra GB300 and B300 series chips, and the forthcoming Vera Rubin AI system, which are designed to offer substantial performance improvements and drive upgrade cycles.
  5. Development and Expansion of Software and Services: Growth in NVIDIA's software and services offerings, such as the NVIDIA AI Enterprise suite and the Omniverse platform, is also an expected revenue driver. These solutions enable various industrial applications, from digital twin creation and simulation in automotive design to broader AI development and deployment for enterprises.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • In August 2024, NVIDIA's board approved a $50 billion share repurchase authorization.
  • In August 2025, the board authorized an additional $60 billion increase to its share repurchase program, which has no expiration date.
  • NVIDIA's annual share buybacks amounted to $10.039 billion in 2023, $9.533 billion in 2024, and $33.706 billion in 2025.

Share Issuance

  • NVIDIA's annual stock-based compensation for 2023 was $2.709 billion.
  • The company's annual stock-based compensation for 2024 was $3.549 billion.
  • NVIDIA's annual stock-based compensation for 2025 was $4.737 billion.

Outbound Investments

  • NVIDIA committed up to $100 billion to OpenAI in September 2025 for AI infrastructure deployment, structured as 10 separate $10 billion investments, with the first tranche tied to infrastructure deployment goals.
  • The company announced plans to acquire a $5 billion stake in Intel in September 2025, aiming for collaboration on AI processors.
  • NVIDIA entered into an approximately $20 billion agreement with Groq in December 2025, which includes non-exclusive licensing of Groq's AI inference technology, acquisition of key assets, and key personnel joining NVIDIA.

Capital Expenditures

  • NVIDIA's capital expenditures were $1.833 billion in fiscal year 2023, $1.069 billion in fiscal year 2024, and increased to $3.236 billion in fiscal year 2025.
  • Capital expenditures for the fiscal year ending January 2026 peaked at $6.042 billion.
  • The primary focus of these capital expenditures is to support the rapid development of AI infrastructure and data center buildouts to meet the surging demand for its GPUs.

Better Bets vs. NVIDIA (NVDA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NVDAAMDINTCAVGOQCOMMRVLMedian
NameNVIDIA Advanced.Intel Broadcom Qualcomm Marvell . 
Mkt Price212.50529.14102.99394.28177.98206.26209.38
Mkt Cap5,160.8863.0523.51,871.6189.7181.9693.3
Rev LTM253,49137,45453,76375,46544,4878,71749,125
Op Inc LTM162,2854,3641,05633,25311,3941,4307,879
FCF LTM119,0768,574-3,11932,76212,5021,66210,538
FCF 3Y Avg76,8254,166-9,40924,64012,1541,3938,160
CFO LTM125,6489,7259,98033,62214,2852,05612,132
CFO 3Y Avg80,7774,96210,77925,26613,4581,74412,119

Growth & Margins

NVDAAMDINTCAVGOQCOMMRVLMedian
NameNVIDIA Advanced.Intel Broadcom Qualcomm Marvell . 
Rev Chg LTM70.7%35.0%1.4%32.3%5.2%34.1%33.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg121.7%18.5%-1.6%29.3%3.3%16.0%17.2%
Rev Chg Q85.2%37.8%7.2%47.9%-3.5%27.6%32.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM17.4%8.1%1.7%10.5%-0.8%6.4%7.3%
Op Inc Chg LTM88.3%52.8%125.6%55.5%-2.3%3,466.6%71.9%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg376.9%230.0%-140.2%31.7%-0.8%1,056.4%130.9%
Op Mgn LTM64.0%11.7%2.0%44.1%25.6%16.4%21.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg60.6%8.2%-1.5%38.4%26.0%2.8%17.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.6%1.0%2.0%2.6%-1.6%0.1%1.5%
CFO/Rev LTM49.6%26.0%18.6%44.6%32.1%23.6%29.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg50.5%15.3%19.9%43.2%33.0%25.8%29.4%
FCF/Rev LTM47.0%22.9%-5.8%43.4%28.1%19.1%25.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg48.3%12.7%-17.4%42.2%29.8%20.5%25.2%

Valuation

NVDAAMDINTCAVGOQCOMMRVLMedian
NameNVIDIA Advanced.Intel Broadcom Qualcomm Marvell . 
Mkt Cap5,160.8863.0523.51,871.6189.7181.9693.3
P/S20.423.09.724.84.320.920.6
P/Op Inc31.8197.8495.756.316.7127.291.7
P/EBIT27.2170.3-700.855.715.354.740.9
P/E32.3172.3-164.963.819.172.048.1
P/CFO41.188.752.555.713.388.554.1
Total Yield3.1%0.6%-0.6%2.2%7.2%1.5%1.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%2.0%0.1%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.4%1.5%-7.0%2.7%7.5%2.1%2.3%
D/E0.00.00.10.00.10.00.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Returns

NVDAAMDINTCAVGOQCOMMRVLMedian
NameNVIDIA Advanced.Intel Broadcom Qualcomm Marvell . 
1M Rtn0.0%-3.3%-19.5%0.2%-19.4%-33.2%-11.4%
3M Rtn7.0%105.0%58.6%-0.5%34.3%53.3%43.8%
6M Rtn16.2%136.6%111.4%16.4%9.3%154.2%63.9%
12M Rtn24.7%240.0%349.3%41.4%17.8%185.5%113.4%
3Y Rtn368.3%356.4%217.0%360.0%55.0%228.1%292.2%
1M Excs Rtn1.7%1.5%-19.2%1.5%-17.8%-28.1%-8.2%
3M Excs Rtn-0.4%98.8%52.7%-5.0%25.8%45.5%35.6%
6M Excs Rtn6.5%146.2%125.2%3.8%-2.3%140.5%65.9%
12M Excs Rtn8.9%241.0%321.2%23.3%-3.0%164.3%93.8%
3Y Excs Rtn333.0%294.1%149.3%294.0%-9.5%173.6%233.8%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20262025202420232022
Compute & Networking193,479116,19347,40515,06811,046
Graphics22,45914,30413,51711,90615,868
All Other  00 
Total215,938130,49760,92226,97426,914


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20262025202420232022
Compute & Networking130,14182,87532,0165,0834,598
Graphics9,1565,0855,8464,5528,492
Acquisition-related and other costs-527-599   
Unallocated operating expenses-1,997-1,171   
Stock-based compensation expense-6,386-4,737   
All Other  -4,890-5,411-3,049
Total130,38781,45332,9724,22410,041


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$212.50 
Market Cap ($ Bil)5,160.8 
First Trading Date01/22/1999 
Distance from 52W High-9.8% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$209.50$191.95
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA1.4%10.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility41.3%35.8%
Downside Capture238.64198.69
Upside Capture191.99178.41
Correlation (SPY)63.3%64.9%
NVDA Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta2.172.211.911.891.862.06
Up Beta0.851.951.401.691.612.01
Down Beta2.182.462.521.992.111.92
Up Capture255%205%193%222%259%3183%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days9193564131408
Down Capture243%226%216%171%150%112%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days12222861121342

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NVDA
NVDA29.8%35.9%0.79-
Sector ETF (XLK)42.8%24.4%1.4072.9%
Equity (SPY)21.9%12.6%1.3064.9%
Gold (GLD)21.0%27.9%0.6719.2%
Commodities (DBC)29.1%18.9%1.22-0.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)12.6%13.9%0.61-7.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-46.2%42.9%-1.3236.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NVDA
NVDA60.0%51.8%1.09-
Sector ETF (XLK)20.0%25.5%0.7080.2%
Equity (SPY)13.2%17.1%0.5970.4%
Gold (GLD)17.2%18.4%0.768.0%
Commodities (DBC)9.0%19.5%0.3510.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.7%18.9%0.0429.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)13.8%53.5%0.4432.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NVDA
NVDA68.4%49.9%1.24-
Sector ETF (XLK)25.0%24.8%0.9176.2%
Equity (SPY)15.6%17.9%0.7465.9%
Gold (GLD)11.1%16.1%0.565.4%
Commodities (DBC)6.7%18.0%0.2915.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%20.7%0.2032.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)57.9%66.2%0.9821.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity310.1 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 61520263.5%
Average Daily Volume156.0 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.0 days
Basic Shares Quantity24,286.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/24/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/20/2026-1.8%-4.1%-6.5%
2/25/2026-5.5%-6.4%-12.4%
11/19/2025-3.2%-3.4%-1.5%
8/27/2025-0.8%-5.5%-1.9%
5/28/20253.2%5.3%17.0%
2/26/2025-8.5%-10.6%-15.1%
11/20/20240.5%-7.2%-7.7%
8/28/2024-6.4%-14.6%-3.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive12129
# Negative121215
Median Positive4.6%10.5%21.2%
Median Negative-4.3%-5.9%-5.0%
Max Positive24.4%30.2%35.5%
Max Negative-8.5%-14.6%-29.1%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/20/2026-1.8%-4.1%-6.5%
2/25/2026-5.5%-6.4%-12.4%
11/19/2025-3.2%-3.4%-1.5%
8/27/2025-0.8%-5.5%-1.9%
5/28/20253.2%5.3%17.0%
2/26/2025-8.5%-10.6%-15.1%
11/20/20240.5%-7.2%-7.7%
8/28/2024-6.4%-14.6%-3.3%
5/22/20249.3%16.4%24.4%
2/21/202416.4%15.1%35.5%
11/21/2023-2.5%-3.6%-1.9%
8/23/20230.1%4.6%-11.7%
5/24/202324.4%30.2%33.1%
2/22/202314.0%9.4%31.0%
11/16/2022-1.5%3.8%4.2%
8/8/2022-6.3%-1.5%-29.1%
5/25/20225.2%15.4%-0.6%
2/16/2022-7.6%-10.4%-0.2%
11/17/20218.2%11.7%-5.0%
8/18/20214.0%16.7%15.0%
5/26/2021-1.4%8.1%21.2%
2/24/2021-8.2%-11.7%-13.5%
11/18/20200.1%-1.4%-1.1%
8/19/20200.0%5.2%0.4%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive12129
# Negative121215
Median Positive4.6%10.5%21.2%
Median Negative-4.3%-5.9%-5.0%
Max Positive24.4%30.2%35.5%
Max Negative-8.5%-14.6%-29.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
04/30/202605/20/202610-Q
01/31/202602/25/202610-K
10/31/202511/19/202510-Q
07/31/202508/27/202510-Q
04/30/202505/28/202510-Q
01/31/202502/26/202510-K
10/31/202411/20/202410-Q
07/31/202408/28/202410-Q
04/30/202405/29/202410-Q
01/31/202402/21/202410-K
10/31/202311/21/202310-Q
07/31/202308/28/202310-Q
04/30/202305/26/202310-Q
01/31/202302/24/202310-K
10/31/202211/18/202210-Q
07/31/202208/31/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
04/30/202605/20/202610-Q
01/31/202602/25/202610-K
10/31/202511/19/202510-Q
07/31/202508/27/202510-Q
04/30/202505/28/202510-Q
01/31/202502/26/202510-K
10/31/202411/20/202410-Q
07/31/202408/28/202410-Q
04/30/202405/29/202410-Q
01/31/202402/21/202410-K
10/31/202311/21/202310-Q
07/31/202308/28/202310-Q
04/30/202305/26/202310-Q
01/31/202302/24/202310-K
10/31/202211/18/202210-Q
07/31/202208/31/202210-Q
04/30/202205/27/202210-Q
01/31/202203/18/202210-K
10/31/202111/22/202110-Q
07/31/202108/20/202110-Q
04/30/202105/26/202110-Q
01/31/202102/26/202110-K
10/31/202011/18/202010-Q
07/31/202008/19/202010-Q
04/30/202005/21/202010-Q
01/31/202002/20/202010-K
10/31/201911/14/201910-Q
07/31/201908/15/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/8/2026

Latest: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 5/20/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2027 Revenue89.18 Bil91.00 Bil92.82 Bil16.7% Higher NewGuidance: 78.00 Bil for Q1 2027
Q2 2027 GAAP Gross Margin74.4%74.9%75.4% 0.0%Same NewGuidance: 74.9% for Q1 2027
Q2 2027 Non-GAAP Gross Margin74.5%75.0%75.5% 0.0%Same NewGuidance: 75.0% for Q1 2027
Q2 2027 GAAP Operating Expenses 8.50 Bil 10.4% Higher NewGuidance: 7.70 Bil for Q1 2027
Q2 2027 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses 8.30 Bil 10.7% Higher NewGuidance: 7.50 Bil for Q1 2027
2027 Tax Rate16.0%17.0%18.0% -1.0%LoweredGuidance: 18.0% for 2027

Prior: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2027 Revenue76.44 Bil78.00 Bil79.56 Bil20.0% Higher NewGuidance: 65.00 Bil for Q4 2026
Q1 2027 GAAP Gross Margin74.4%74.9%75.4% 0.1%Higher NewGuidance: 74.8% for Q4 2026
Q1 2027 Non-GAAP Gross Margin74.5%75.0%75.5% 0.0%Same NewGuidance: 75.0% for Q4 2026
Q1 2027 GAAP Operating Expenses 7.70 Bil 14.9% Higher NewGuidance: 6.70 Bil for Q4 2026
Q1 2027 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses 7.50 Bil 50.0% Higher NewGuidance: 5.00 Bil for Q4 2026
2027 GAAP Tax Rate17.0%18.0%19.0%   
2027 Non-GAAP Tax Rate17.0%18.0%19.0%   

Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/19/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2026 Revenue 65.00 Bil 20.4% Higher NewActual: 54.00 Bil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 GAAP Gross Margin 74.8%  1.5%Higher NewActual: 73.3% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin 75.0%  1.5%Higher NewActual: 73.5% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 GAAP Operating Expenses 6.70 Bil 13.6% Higher NewActual: 5.90 Bil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses 5.00 Bil 19.0% Higher NewActual: 4.20 Bil for Q3 2026

Insider Activity

Updated 7/6/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Stevens, Mark ATrustSell6232026210.17885,000185,999,9381,094,409,135Form
2Neal, Stephen CThe Neal/Rhyu Revocable Trust dated 5/2/2017Sell6052026215.7315,5003,343,86325,054,164Form
3Stevens, Mark ATrustSell6042026219.83500,000109,913,9001,406,847,579Form
4Stevens, Mark ATrustSell6042026222.38500,000111,188,7001,534,353,136Form
5Dabiri, JohnDirectSell5292026214.00625133,7503,030,882Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Stevens, Mark ATrustSell6232026210.17885,000185,999,9381,094,409,135Form
2Neal, Stephen CThe Neal/Rhyu Revocable Trust dated 5/2/2017Sell6052026215.7315,5003,343,86325,054,164Form
3Stevens, Mark ATrustSell6042026219.83500,000109,913,9001,406,847,579Form
4Stevens, Mark ATrustSell6042026222.38500,000111,188,7001,534,353,136Form
5Dabiri, JohnDirectSell5292026214.00625133,7503,030,882Form
6Stevens, Mark ATrustSell3242026173.68221,68238,502,5241,285,218,746Form
7Robertson, Donald F JRPrincipal Accounting OfficerDirectSell3202026174.755,396942,94458,911,286Form
8Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerDirectSell3202026174.8942,6507,458,954154,143,618Form
9Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerTrustSell3202026174.8910,0001,748,87614,526,164Form
10Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerLimited Liability CompanySell3202026174.8910,0001,748,876124,683,295Form
11Shah, Aarti SDirectSell3202026176.7119,0003,357,5496,362,909Form
12Puri, Ajay KEVP, Worldwide Field OpsTrustSell3202026182.25300,00054,676,140550,141,658Form
13Dabiri, JohnDirectSell3172026184.903,004555,4402,734,301Form
14Puri, Ajay KEVP, Worldwide Field OpsTrustSell3112026182.52300,00054,756,044605,701,681Form
15Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerDirectSell2062026175.7227,6404,856,861148,793,566Form
16Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerTrustSell2062026175.7210,0001,757,18616,352,372Form
17Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerLimited Liability CompanySell2062026175.7210,0001,757,186127,032,942Form
18Puri, Ajay KEVP, Worldwide Field OpsTrustSell1232026180.04200,00036,007,160651,468,004Form
19Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerDirectSell1152026184.9227,6405,111,185161,696,145Form
20Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerTrustSell1152026184.9210,0001,849,19919,057,842Form
21Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerLimited Liability CompanySell1152026184.9210,0001,849,198135,534,045Form
22Puri, Ajay KEVP, Worldwide Field OpsTrustSell1092026187.82200,00037,563,619717,192,230Form
23Robertson, Donald F JRPrincipal Accounting OfficerDirectSell1062026189.8580,00015,187,74265,850,253Form
24Stevens, Mark ATrustSell12222025180.17222,50040,087,3801,373,141,944Form
25Robertson, Donald F JRPrincipal Accounting OfficerDirectSell12222025179.9824,5904,425,72776,826,583Form
26Jones, Harvey CH.C. Jones Living TrustSell12172025177.33250,00044,333,4501,229,504,889Form
27Shoquist, DeboraEVP, OperationsTrustSell12122025177.8569,84012,420,972253,364,165Form
28Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerDirectSell12122025178.1130,5005,432,499229,202,640Form
29Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerTrustSell12122025178.1110,0001,781,14720,137,647Form
30Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerLimited Liability CompanySell12122025178.1110,0001,781,147132,327,462Form
31Shoquist, DeboraEVP, OperationsTrustSell12122025178.9080,00014,311,661267,349,523Form
32Shoquist, DeboraEVP, OperationsTrustSell12122025183.5280,00014,681,882288,947,330Form
33Shoquist, DeboraEVP, OperationsTrustSell12102025184.6580,00014,771,657305,485,807Form
34Stevens, Mark ATrustSell12092025181.73350,00063,604,0651,281,131,795Form
35Seawell, A BrookeAdministrative TrustSell12042025183.9312,728  Form
36Dabiri, JohnDirectSell11262025179.42626112,3173,192,241Form
37Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerDirectSell11052025208.3327,6405,758,257589,184,237Form
38Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerTrustSell11052025208.3310,0002,083,30725,637,172Form
39Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerLimited Liability CompanySell11052025208.3310,0002,083,306156,859,158Form
40Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10312025207.9125,0005,197,79014,498,342,411Form
41Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10282025195.5425,0004,888,53513,640,617,644Form
42Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10282025190.7325,0004,768,18213,309,561,796Form
43Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10282025185.3575,00013,901,54412,939,224,349Form
44Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10232025181.8075,00013,635,06312,704,825,415Form
45Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10232025179.9175,00013,493,28812,586,215,469Form
46Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerDirectSell10232025181.4227,6405,014,328518,079,827Form
47Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerTrustSell10232025181.4210,0001,814,15724,139,172Form
48Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerLimited Liability CompanySell10232025181.4210,0001,814,156138,408,121Form
49Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10232025181.4175,00013,606,04912,705,002,559Form
50Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10202025183.3875,00013,753,15112,856,116,475Form
51Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10202025182.3175,00013,673,24012,795,090,611Form
52Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10202025181.7675,00013,632,01012,770,140,804Form
53Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10152025181.0175,00013,575,88012,731,134,941Form
54Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10152025181.9275,00013,644,30512,808,947,064Form
55Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10152025188.2575,00014,118,37813,268,113,081Form
56Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10102025190.2075,00014,264,67413,419,863,572Form
57Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10102025193.2275,00014,491,14913,647,417,176Form
58Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10102025188.3975,00014,129,27813,320,744,763Form
59Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10072025186.4875,00013,986,01813,199,668,594Form
60Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10072025185.7975,00013,934,39013,164,877,814Form
61Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10072025188.4075,00014,130,23113,364,033,567Form
62Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10022025189.3275,00014,199,27413,443,532,145Form
63Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10022025186.6175,00013,995,48013,264,580,200Form
64Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell10022025185.3175,00013,898,54813,186,608,871Form
65Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9292025182.3475,00013,675,41512,988,581,220Form
66Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9292025176.9675,00013,272,10812,618,802,515Form
67Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9292025177.1575,00013,286,19812,645,484,793Form
68Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9242025177.6075,00013,320,00912,690,985,011Form
69Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9242025179.4875,00013,460,87012,838,655,038Form
70Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9242025179.0175,00013,425,47412,818,321,241Form
71Drell, PersisThe Welch-Drell 2009 Revocable TrustSell9232025177.6540,0007,106,12024,647,577Form
72Stevens, Mark ATrustSell9232025176.39350,00061,737,3051,305,268,271Form
73Jones, Harvey CH.C. Jones Living TrustSell9222025176.21250,00044,053,7001,265,800,249Form
74Robertson, Donald F JRPrincipal Accounting OfficerDirectSell9192025176.373,500617,29880,573,281Form
75Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerDirectSell9192025176.4030,5005,380,183508,630,538Form
76Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerTrustSell9192025176.4010,0001,763,99525,235,706Form
77Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerLimited Liability CompanySell9192025176.4010,0001,763,994136,345,084Form
78Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9192025176.4275,00013,231,58612,646,432,400Form
79Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9192025175.6975,00013,177,12512,607,557,409Form
80Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9192025170.3075,00012,772,83812,233,518,447Form
81Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9162025175.6875,00013,176,26712,640,145,431Form
82Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9162025176.5775,00013,242,95812,717,365,726Form
83Neal, Stephen CThe Neal/Rhyu Revocable Trust dated 5/2/2017Sell9162025177.5828,0004,972,34425,467,278Form
84Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9162025177.7275,00013,329,00612,813,327,606Form
85Stevens, Mark ATrustSell9152025178.19297,79753,064,4181,380,936,622Form
86Stevens, Mark ATrustSell9152025177.47200,00035,494,0201,428,208,377Form
87Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9112025177.6975,00013,326,44712,824,193,709Form
88Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9112025177.5775,00013,317,96212,829,346,607Form
89Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9112025168.5275,00012,639,33412,188,255,542Form
90Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9082025169.7175,00012,728,12812,286,608,761Form
91Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9082025166.4775,00012,485,26112,064,652,152Form
92Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9082025170.6875,00012,800,95712,382,513,902Form
93Hudson, Dawn EDirectSell9042025172.0018,0003,096,00063,448,564Form
94Hudson, Dawn EDirectSell9042025170.6372,00012,285,06566,012,943Form
95Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9032025170.6975,00012,801,71712,396,050,223Form
96Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9032025169.6575,00012,723,41912,332,956,887Form
97Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell9032025174.4675,00013,084,53112,696,071,448Form
98Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell8182025179.7675,00013,482,28713,095,476,058Form
99Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell8182025181.8275,00013,636,25613,258,663,933Form
100Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell8132025181.3875,00013,603,81513,240,725,078Form
101Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell8132025182.0175,00013,650,50613,299,820,009Form
102Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell8132025182.7475,00013,705,21313,366,826,325Form
103Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell8082025182.3875,00013,678,62113,354,569,819Form
104Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell8082025181.3075,00013,597,69313,289,157,132Form
105Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell8082025178.4275,00013,381,24013,090,996,200Form
106Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerDirectSell8062025178.0627,6404,921,456526,488,225Form
107Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerTrustSell8062025178.0610,0001,780,55527,253,181Form
108Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerLimited Liability CompanySell8062025178.0610,0001,780,555139,405,725Form
109Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell8052025178.2475,00013,367,98613,091,398,102Form
110Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell8052025178.1675,00013,362,12913,099,024,675Form
111Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell8052025174.0075,00013,049,77812,805,873,476Form
112Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7312025179.9475,00013,495,36513,256,627,492Form
113Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7312025178.7475,00013,405,47513,181,733,210Form
114Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7312025177.0675,00013,279,43413,071,074,838Form
115Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7282025175.2275,00013,141,83012,948,771,718Form
116Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7282025173.8875,00013,041,33412,862,793,433Form
117Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7282025172.9675,00012,971,84712,807,229,746Form
118Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7232025169.5475,00012,715,42312,566,775,694Form
119Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7232025167.6575,00012,574,02012,439,599,258Form
120Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7232025172.4275,00012,931,30112,805,992,491Form
121Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7182025172.5275,00012,938,76512,826,322,858Form
122Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7182025173.0575,00012,978,79712,878,985,664Form
123Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7182025170.5975,00012,794,20012,708,602,947Form
124Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerDirectSell7172025170.8927,6504,724,971510,009,118Form
125Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerTrustSell7172025170.8810,0001,708,85027,864,507Form
126Kress, ColetteEVP & Chief Financial OfficerLimited Liability CompanySell7172025170.8810,0001,708,850135,500,501Form
127Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7152025170.8975,00012,816,80512,743,872,834Form
128Seawell, A BrookeAdministrative TrustSell7152025163.9648,7927,999,924283,564,761Form
129Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7152025164.3675,00012,327,08212,269,264,015Form
130Seawell, A BrookeAdministrative TrustSell7152025166.2848,1127,999,983295,687,752Form
131Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7152025166.0075,00012,450,15912,404,213,811Form
132Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7102025163.2675,00012,244,38512,211,443,250Form
133Seawell, A BrookeAdministrative TrustSell7102025162.8349,1317,999,868297,384,829Form
134Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7102025163.1175,00012,233,61612,212,936,834Form
135Seawell, A BrookeAdministrative TrustSell7102025163.3648,9717,999,963306,386,101Form
136Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7102025159.3675,00011,952,01311,943,761,854Form
137Seawell, A BrookeAdministrative TrustSell7102025159.0550,3007,999,967306,079,698Form
138Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7072025158.3575,00011,876,16011,879,837,339Form
139Seawell, A BrookeAdministrative TrustSell7072025158.3750,5147,999,871312,745,324Form
140Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7072025159.3275,00011,948,71711,964,366,069Form
141Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7072025156.3975,00011,729,11511,756,205,742Form
142Seawell, A BrookeAdministrative TrustSell7072025155.6151,4117,999,918315,150,821Form
143Seawell, A BrookeAdministrative TrustSell7012025154.6251,7407,999,955243,788,203Form
144Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7012025154.2775,00011,570,58411,608,878,855Form
145Seawell, A BrookeAdministrative TrustSell7012025157.1350,9127,999,893255,881,084Form
146Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7012025157.5375,00011,815,01311,865,932,220Form
147Huang, Jen HsunPresident and CEODirectSell7012025157.0275,00011,776,12611,838,653,022Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Jul 16, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Golden Unicorn (BVI) Ltd$413.1 Mil59.3%4Hold13F
M & L Capital Management Ltd$204.2 Mil50.2%19Hold13F
Palidye Holdings (Caymans) Ltd$257.9 Mil47.8%15ADD +73.8%13F
Ketron Financial$124.0 Mil44.4%55Hold13F
Mindset Wealth Management, LLC$165.0 Mil44.3%176Hold13F
Westwood Wealth Management$98.3 Mil38.6%42New13F
Nelson Capital Management, LLC$284.3 Mil34.7%108Hold13F
Hoey Investments, Inc$232.9 Mil34.4%416Hold13F
Lynch Asset Management, Inc.$93.9 Mil31.5%51Hold13F
Clear Street Group Inc.$5.5 Bil31.1%1065Hold13F
Trybe Capital Management LP$136.2 Mil30.8%6Hold13F
IronBridge Private Wealth, LLC$94.0 Mil30.3%78Hold13F
Builder Investment Group Inc /Adv$137.0 Mil29.7%101Hold13F
Altimeter Capital Management, LP$1.6 Bil28.6%13ADD +15.3%13F
Voyager Global Management LP$819.7 Mil27.9%8ADD +22.1%13F
Once Capital Management, LLC$98.0 Mil26.2%22Hold13F
KLCM Advisors, Inc.$261.5 Mil22.8%256Hold13F
Belvedere Trading LLC$163.8 Mil21.9%227New13F
BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd$463.5 Mil21.8%41New13F
Matthew 25 Management Corp$65.6 Mil21.8%20TRIM -11.5%13F
Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC $650.2 Mil21.7%17New13F
Franchise GP Ltd$56.9 Mil20.9%36ADD +158.3%13F
Yarbrough Capital, LLC$569.0 Mil19.9%85Hold13F
MayTech Global Investments, LLC$162.6 Mil19.8%23Hold13F
Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund$224.2 Mil19.8%12Hold13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC $650.2 Mil21.7%17New13F
Scge Management, L.P.$529.1 Mil16.0%21New13F
BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd$463.5 Mil21.8%41New13F
Quintet Private Bank (Europe) S.A.$222.0 Mil14.9%187New13F
Belvedere Trading LLC$163.8 Mil21.9%227New13F
Westwood Wealth Management$98.3 Mil38.6%42New13F
Towarzystwo Funduszy Inwestycyjnych Pzu SA$49.2 Mil16.5%687New13F
Franchise GP Ltd$56.9 Mil20.9%36ADD +158.3%13F
Palidye Holdings (Caymans) Ltd$257.9 Mil47.8%15ADD +73.8%13F
Voyager Global Management LP$819.7 Mil27.9%8ADD +22.1%13F
Altimeter Capital Management, LP$1.6 Bil28.6%13ADD +15.3%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
RK Capital Management, LLC/FL$829.5 Mil51.4%20ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Cantor Fitzgerald, L. P.$559.6 Mil16.7%159ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Cable Car Capital, LP$414.0 Mil25.7%107ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Himension Capital (Singapore) PTE. LTD.$282.4 Mil17.4%95ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Traynor Capital Management, Inc.$266.8 Mil14.7%327ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Harbour Trust & Investment Management Co$151.8 Mil15.5%286ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Institute for Wealth Management, LLC.$140.5 Mil14.9%538ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Marathon Trading Investment Management LLC$131.6 Mil15.7%233ExitedDec 31, 202513F
CFM Wealth Partners LLC$101.9 Mil14.7%144ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Quarry LP$93.6 Mil15.3%2064ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Austin Asset Management Co Inc$91.9 Mil15.1%76ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Oak Grove Capital LLC$81.1 Mil16.1%74ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Berkshire Capital Holdings Inc$73.1 Mil24.2%109ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Ariose Capital Management Ltd$60.7 Mil20.3%14ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Proem Advisors LLC$43.8 Mil14.8%28ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Weiss Asset Management LP$973.4 Mil17.9%472TRIM -16.0%Mar 31, 202613F
Matthew 25 Management Corp$65.6 Mil21.8%20TRIM -11.5%Mar 31, 202613F
Bender Robert & Associates$77.7 Mil18.6%45TRIM -6.2%Mar 31, 202613F
DSM Capital Partners LLC$908.3 Mil16.1%44TRIM -5.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Clear Street Group Inc.$5.5 Bil31.1%1065Hold13F
Altimeter Capital Management, LP$1.6 Bil28.6%13ADD +15.3%13F
Weiss Asset Management LP$973.4 Mil17.9%472TRIM -16.0%13F
DSM Capital Partners LLC$908.3 Mil16.1%44TRIM -5.7%13F
Voyager Global Management LP$819.7 Mil27.9%8ADD +22.1%13F
Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC $650.2 Mil21.7%17New13F
Yarbrough Capital, LLC$569.0 Mil19.9%85Hold13F
Scge Management, L.P.$529.1 Mil16.0%21New13F
BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd$463.5 Mil21.8%41New13F
Golden Unicorn (BVI) Ltd$413.1 Mil59.3%4Hold13F
Nelson Capital Management, LLC$284.3 Mil34.7%108Hold13F
KLCM Advisors, Inc.$261.5 Mil22.8%256Hold13F
Palidye Holdings (Caymans) Ltd$257.9 Mil47.8%15ADD +73.8%13F
Hoey Investments, Inc$232.9 Mil34.4%416Hold13F
Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund$224.2 Mil19.8%12Hold13F
Quintet Private Bank (Europe) S.A.$222.0 Mil14.9%187New13F
M & L Capital Management Ltd$204.2 Mil50.2%19Hold13F
Dock Street Asset Management Inc$176.6 Mil18.6%58Hold13F
Mindset Wealth Management, LLC$165.0 Mil44.3%176Hold13F
Belvedere Trading LLC$163.8 Mil21.9%227New13F
MayTech Global Investments, LLC$162.6 Mil19.8%23Hold13F
Prime Capital Management Co Ltd$154.2 Mil17.3%7Hold13F
Builder Investment Group Inc /Adv$137.0 Mil29.7%101Hold13F
Trybe Capital Management LP$136.2 Mil30.8%6Hold13F
Ketron Financial$124.0 Mil44.4%55Hold13F

NVDA Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

High Conviction

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Conviction is high as NVIDIA's core Data Center business is accelerating, with 92% year-over-year growth. Management's visibility has doubled, now forecasting $1 trillion in revenue from its next two platforms through 2027. The company's full-stack platform and CUDA software ecosystem with 7.5 million developers create a defensible position against competitors.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Picks & Shovels Infrastructure Provider

Revenue = (Number of AI infrastructure deployments) x (Value per deployment, which is increasing with system complexity) Maintaining technology leadership through an annual product cadence and full-stack optimization, which allows the company to capture a significant share of the value in each AI factory build-out, sustaining high gross margins.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can NVIDIA's full-stack platform sustain its lead through the next product cycle?

Evidence suggests yes. The company is capturing the AI infrastructure build-out with accelerating growth and expanding long-term visibility.

Mechanism: Dominating the $3-4 trillion annual AI infrastructure market by maintaining technology leadership, which supports 74.1% gross margins and massive cash flow.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Data Center revenue growth accelerated to 92% year-over-year in the latest quarter.
  • Management foresees $1 trillion in revenue from Blackwell and Rubin platforms through calendar 2027.
  • The CUDA software platform has a growing ecosystem of over 7.5 million developers.
  • Gross margin is 74.1%, significantly higher than key competitors.
PRIMARY RISK
Hyperscaler Demand Air Pocket

Extreme customer concentration and a massive inventory build create vulnerability. If hyperscaler spending pauses, a sharp deceleration and inventory write-downs could follow, similar to the prior $4.5 billion H20 charge.

Mechanism: A material miss on quarterly revenue guidance would confirm the demand peak is in.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Three direct customers accounted for 21%, 17%, and 16% of total revenue last quarter.
  • Inventory grew 127.6% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth of 85.2%.
  • The company was 'effectively foreclosed' from China's data center market by U.S. export controls.
  • Competitors are gaining some traction with large customers like Meta and OpenAI.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Data Center Revenue Growth$75.2 billion for Q1 FY2027 - AcceleratingThe year-over-year growth rate has accelerated for three consecutive quarters, from 66% two quarters ago to 75% in the prior quarter, and now 92% in the latest quarter. Sequential growth remains robust and stable.
Data Center Networking Revenue$15 billion for Q1 FY2027 - DeceleratingWhile the year-over-year growth multiplier has moderated from its peak (3.5x in the prior quarter), the business is still growing at an exceptional rate. Sequential dollar and percentage growth remains strong, indicating sustained momentum in the build-out of NVIDIA's full-stack solutions.
Inventory vs. Revenue Growth Divergence42.4 percentage points (Q1 FY2027)A high divergence where inventory grows much faster than revenue can signal a potential mismatch between supply and demand, a key risk factor highlighted by the company.
Core Investment Debate

Structural Hypergrowth vs. Cyclical Peak

BULL VIEW

Bulls see accelerating 92% Data Center growth and a doubled $1 trillion forward revenue pipeline as proof of a durable, multi-year AI infrastructure build-out.

CORE TENSION

Can accelerating demand, with 92% growth, absorb the 127.6% surge in inventory, which the market punished with a 0.0% post-earnings stock reaction?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BULLISH

The latest evidence favors the bull case. Management raised Q2 revenue guidance by 16.7% and doubled its multi-year revenue forecast, directly countering the cyclical peak narrative.

BEAR VIEW

Bears see the massive inventory build, where growth outpaces revenue by 42.4 percentage points, as a sign of a looming cyclical peak and potential write-downs.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
7/29/2026
Qualcomm Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Qualcomm (QCOM) is scheduled to report earnings.
8/25/2026
Product Transition Execution
Watch: Commentary on the Q2 earnings call regarding Rubin ramp yields, costs, or any delays.
8/25/2026
NVIDIA Earnings Report
Watch: NVIDIA is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings.
8/26/2026
Marvell Technology Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Marvell Technology (MRVL) is scheduled to report earnings.
11/2/2026
Peer Competitive Ramp
Watch: AMD's Data Center segment growth and AI accelerator revenue guidance on its next earnings call.
after a two-year transitional period
EU AI Act Compliance
Watch: Company disclosures on compliance costs or changes to EU business strategy around the August 2026 timeframe.
No set date
New Export Control Rules
Watch: Announcements from the U.S. Department of Commerce regarding new semiconductor export regulations.
after a two-year transitional period
EU AI Act Compliance Deadline
Watch: The EU AI Act is expected to become fully applicable after a two-year transitional period that began on August 1, 2024.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-06-08
Major UK AI Infrastructure Deal
Details: AI cloud company Nebius announced it is investing approximately £1.7 billion to build out three new deployments of NVIDIA infrastructure in the UK.
+1.5%
$205.10 -> $208.19
2026-05-20
Dividend and Buyback Increased
Details: The company increased its quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share and announced an additional $80 billion share repurchase authorization.
-0.5%
$220.35 -> $219.25
2026-05-20
Reported Q1 FY27 Results
Details: The company reported record revenue of $82 billion, up 85% year-over-year. Guidance for Q2 revenue was raised by 16.7%.
-0.5%
$220.35 -> $219.25
2026-04-19
Vera Rubin Platform Milestone
Details: SK hynix began mass production of 192GB SOCAMM2 memory, which is specifically "designed for the NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform," signaling supply chain readiness for the next architecture.
+1.9%
$198.12 -> $201.82
2026-03-16
Physical AI Ecosystem Expansion
Details: STMicroelectronics announced it would integrate its sensors and microcontrollers with NVIDIA's robotics ecosystem to accelerate the development of humanoid robots and other physical AI systems.
+0.9%
$180.04 -> $181.72
2026-02-25
Reported Q4 FY26 Results
Details: The company reported Q4 revenue of $68 billion, up 73% year-over-year. The stock had a two-day reaction of -4.0% versus 0.0% for the S&P 500.
-4.1%
$192.62 -> $184.66
2026-01-19
Blackwell B300 Servers Acquired
Details: Bitzero Holdings announced its acquisition of NVIDIA Blackwell B300 GPU servers to launch an AI compute pilot, marking an early adoption of the next-generation platform.
-4.8%
$186.82 -> $177.85
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4% - 6%

NORMAL POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: NVDA trades at roughly 40% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (3.1x the market), around the 71st percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
AMD - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Price-Performance Challenger

AMD offers exposure to the AI build-out with a lower-margin structure, positioning it to capture cost-conscious customers. It provides diversification into the server CPU market where it expects over 70% growth.

Core Thesis: A bet on a credible second-source player gaining share in both AI accelerators and server CPUs.
INTC - Intel Corporation
Incumbent Turnaround

Intel offers a counter-narrative where the CPU remains the 'indispensable foundation of the AI era'. It also has its own fabrication facilities, providing supply chain control that NVIDIA lacks.

Core Thesis: A value-oriented play on the established leader in CPUs reasserting its relevance in the AI data center.
How Is The Market Pricing NVDA?

NVIDIA is not a chip company; it is the sole-source enabler of the AI industrial revolution, selling complete, data-center-scale 'AI factories' where compute capacity directly translates to customer revenue.

NVIDIA has established a defensible moat through its full-stack platform, centered on the CUDA architecture, which has become the industry standard for AI development. The company's annual product cadence and 'extreme co-design' approach across hardware and software deliver generational performance leaps that outpace Moore's Law. This strategy allows it to capture a significant portion of the value in the multi-trillion-dollar AI infrastructure build-out.

What will confirm the thesis

Announcements of new, large-scale AI factory deployments by major cloud or sovereign customers; continued performance leadership in MLPerf benchmarks; expansion of the CUDA developer ecosystem.

What will damage the thesis

Evidence of a major customer successfully deploying a competitive, non-NVIDIA AI accelerator at scale; significant tightening of export controls that further restrict sales of high-end products; a slowdown in hyperscaler capex growth.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Short-term stock price volatility; individual news about a single competitor's product announcement without evidence of large-scale customer adoption.

Repricing Catalyst

The rapid ramp of the Blackwell platform and the upcoming Rubin platform, which are expected to drive significant revenue growth and solidify the company's leadership in the next wave of agentic and physical AI.

What NVDA Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on fiscal year 2026 filings (the latest reported segment data)
Compute & Networking
$193.5B TTM (90% of Total) · 67% Margin
What It Is

Sells Data Center accelerated computing platforms (GPUs, CPUs, DPUs, NVLink), networking solutions (InfiniBand, Ethernet), AI software (NVIDIA AI Enterprise), and Automotive platforms (DRIVE) to cloud providers, AI model makers, enterprises, and public sector entities.

Who Pays & How

Cloud service providers, enterprises, and governments write the check to build 'AI factories' for training and deploying AI models. They choose NVIDIA for its full-stack, integrated platform that delivers the industry's lowest cost per token and highest performance per watt, which translates directly to revenue in power-constrained data centers.

Unit sales of components and increasingly complex, higher-value rack-scale systems. Also includes software licensing.
Competition
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel, and large cloud service companies with internal design teams (e.g., Google, Amazon, Microsoft).
Some competitors have their own fabrication facilities, larger customer bases, or greater financial resources. Cloud providers can develop their own in-house solutions.
A unified, programmable architecture (CUDA) with a vast ecosystem of developers and applications, combined with a full-stack, 'extreme co-design' approach across chips, systems, networking, and software that delivers superior performance and total cost of ownership.
Graphics
$22.5B TTM (10% of Total) · 41% Margin
What It Is

Sells GeForce GPUs for gaming PCs and laptops, the GeForce NOW cloud gaming service, and NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstations used in professional visualization.

Who Pays & How

PC gamers, creators, and professionals (artists, designers, engineers) pay for GPUs to power immersive gaming experiences and accelerate creative and design workflows. Enterprises pay for workstation-class GPUs to develop and deploy AI applications on-premises.

Unit sales of discrete GPUs and add-in boards sold through a partner network of manufacturers, distributors, and system integrators.
Competition
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel.
Competitors may offer products that are cheaper or have different features.
Technology leadership in real-time ray tracing (RTX) and AI-powered graphics (DLSS), supported by a strong brand and deep relationships with the software and game development community.
NVDA Evolution: Price Return by Era
1999 · Pioneering PC Graphics
The company's invention of the GPU in 1999 sparked the growth of the PC gaming market and redefined computer graphics, establishing its initial core business in the Graphics segment.
2006 · Opening the GPU for Accelerated Computing
+94%
With the introduction of the CUDA programming model in 2006, NVIDIA opened the parallel processing capabilities of its GPUs to a wide range of scientific and compute-intensive applications, laying the groundwork for the AI revolution.
2023-Present · The AI Factory Era
+1,383%
Following the launch of ChatGPT, NVIDIA transitioned into a data center-scale AI infrastructure company. Its business model shifted to providing full-stack, rack-scale systems for building 'AI factories', causing its Compute & Networking segment revenue to grow exponentially.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Mild underperformance and fading; relative trend is a headwind for the thesis. Volume and momentum show mild distribution. The selling pressure is present but not overwhelming. Earnings history is clearly negative. The market punished the print and the drift confirms distribution. Thesis is under pressure. NOTE: Structure and earnings history are contradicting each other. The price trend says one thing, and the market reaction to catalysts says another. Treat this with caution and weigh the most recent earnings event heavily.
① Structure
+3
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-2
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
0 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Trending Up · -
2 Momentum Decelerating
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Neutral Relative Strength
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Distribution
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Flat
7 Earnings Reaction History Consistent Pressure
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/15/2026