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NVIDIA (NVDA)

Market Price (4/15/2026): $196.22 | Market Cap: $4.8 Tril
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Market Price (4/15/2026): $196.22
Market Cap: $4.8 Tril
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Semiconductors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 60%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, CFO LTM is 103 Bil, FCF LTM is 97 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 83 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, Show more.

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 22x

Key risks
NVDA key risks include [1] U.S. Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 60%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, CFO LTM is 103 Bil, FCF LTM is 97 Bil
3 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 83 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, Show more.
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 22x
7 Key risks
NVDA key risks include [1] U.S. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

NVIDIA (NVDA) stock has gained about 5% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Continued Strong Financial Performance Offset by Priced-In Growth.

NVIDIA reported record fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $68.1 billion, a 73% increase year-over-year, and record Data Center revenue of $62.3 billion, up 75% year-over-year. The company also provided an upbeat outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, projecting revenue of $78.0 billion, a 77% year-over-year increase, with strong non-GAAP gross margins around 75%. The upcoming "Rubin" platform, expected in late 2026, promises a tenfold reduction in inference token cost and is anticipated to drive $1 trillion in revenue from Blackwell and Rubin chip systems in 2026 and 2027. However, despite these robust financial results and strong future prospects, much of this growth appeared to be already factored into the stock's valuation, leading to a largely stable period after an all-time high in late 2025.

2. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Shifting Market Sentiment.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly an ongoing conflict in Iran, contributed to elevated energy costs and heightened inflation expectations. This macroeconomic uncertainty influenced the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% in March 2026, signaling a sustained higher interest rate environment. These broader economic concerns, combined with an "ROI reckoning" for AI infrastructure investments, created a cautious market sentiment that put downward pressure on the stock, causing it to decline by as much as 12% in late March before recovering. The semiconductor sector as a whole experienced a stumble in late Q1 2026 due to these headwinds.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 5.4% change in NVDA stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)123120254142026Change
Stock Price ($)186.49196.515.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)187,142215,93815.4%
Net Income Margin (%)53.0%55.6%4.9%
P/E Multiple45.739.8-13.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)24,32724,3020.1%
Cumulative Contribution5.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NVDA5.4% 
Market (SPY)-5.4%71.1%
Sector (XLK)2.8%79.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 5.3% change in NVDA stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)93020254142026Change
Stock Price ($)186.56196.515.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)165,218215,93830.7%
Net Income Margin (%)52.4%55.6%6.1%
P/E Multiple52.539.8-24.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)24,36624,3020.3%
Cumulative Contribution5.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NVDA5.3% 
Market (SPY)-2.9%67.2%
Sector (XLK)5.1%79.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 81.4% change in NVDA stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 65.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)33120254142026Change
Stock Price ($)108.35196.5181.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)130,497215,93865.5%
Net Income Margin (%)55.8%55.6%-0.4%
P/E Multiple36.439.89.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)24,48924,3020.8%
Cumulative Contribution81.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NVDA81.4% 
Market (SPY)16.3%77.8%
Sector (XLK)43.9%86.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 608.1% change in NVDA stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 700.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)33120234142026Change
Stock Price ($)27.75196.51608.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)26,974215,938700.5%
Net Income Margin (%)16.2%55.6%243.4%
P/E Multiple156.539.8-74.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)24,63024,3021.3%
Cumulative Contribution608.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NVDA608.1% 
Market (SPY)63.3%64.5%
Sector (XLK)99.8%78.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NVDA Return125%-50%239%171%39%1%1349%
Peers Return45%-42%85%25%41%24%237%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-0%81%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NVDA Win Rate58%42%75%75%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate62%38%65%53%52%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NVDA Max Drawdown-11%-62%-2%-4%-30%-11% 
Peers Max Drawdown-12%-49%-4%-20%-31%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMD, INTC, AVGO, QCOM, MRVL. See NVDA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/14/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNVDAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-66.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven197.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven223 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven56 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-56.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven127.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven417 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-85.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven570.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2,731 days1,480 days

Compare to AMD, INTC, AVGO, QCOM, MRVL

In The Past

NVIDIA's stock fell -66.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -66.4% loss requires a 197.3% gain to breakeven.

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About NVIDIA (NVDA)

NVIDIA Corporation provides graphics, and compute and networking solutions in the United States, Taiwan, China, and internationally. The company's Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; vGPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems; and Omniverse software for building 3D designs and virtual worlds. Its Compute & Networking segment provides Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing; Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions; automotive AI Cockpit, autonomous driving development agreements, and autonomous vehicle solutions; cryptocurrency mining processors; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms; and NVIDIA AI Enterprise and other software. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, datacenter, and automotive markets. NVIDIA Corporation sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system builders, add-in board manufacturers, retailers/distributors, independent software vendors, Internet and cloud service providers, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, mapping companies, start-ups, and other ecosystem participants. It has a strategic collaboration with Kroger Co. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

AI Analysis | Feedback

1. Intel for AI and advanced graphics chips.

2. The electric utility for AI and high-performance computing.

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  • GeForce GPUs: Graphics processing units primarily for gaming and personal computers.
  • GeForce NOW: A cloud-based game streaming service.
  • NVIDIA RTX/Quadro GPUs: Professional-grade graphics processing units for enterprise workstations and creative applications.
  • vGPU Software: Software enabling virtualized graphics and computing in cloud environments.
  • Omniverse Software: A platform for 3D design collaboration and building virtual worlds.
  • Data Center Platforms: Integrated hardware and software systems for AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and accelerated computing in data centers.
  • Mellanox Networking: High-performance networking and interconnect solutions for data centers and supercomputers.
  • Autonomous Driving Solutions: Comprehensive platforms, software, and development agreements for autonomous vehicles and AI-powered automotive cockpits.
  • Jetson Platforms: Compact, high-performance computing platforms for robotics and other embedded AI applications.
  • NVIDIA AI Enterprise: A software suite and framework for accelerating enterprise AI deployment and development.
  • Cryptocurrency Mining Processors (CMPs): Specialized processors designed for efficient cryptocurrency mining.

AI Analysis | Feedback

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) primarily sells its products to other companies rather than directly to individuals. The company's customer base includes various enterprise segments as outlined in its description.

Based on the provided background and general market knowledge consistent with NVIDIA's operations, its major customers are found within the categories of Internet and Cloud Service Providers, Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)/System Builders, and Automotive Manufacturers. While the background description lists categories of customers, the following are prominent examples of major companies within those categories that are widely recognized as significant customers of NVIDIA:

  • Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - As a major cloud service provider (Azure) and enterprise software vendor, Microsoft utilizes NVIDIA's data center GPUs for AI, HPC, and cloud computing infrastructure.
  • Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) - Through its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division, Amazon is a substantial consumer of NVIDIA's data center GPUs to power its cloud AI, machine learning, and high-performance computing services.
  • Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) - Google Cloud Platform, a subsidiary of Alphabet, also heavily relies on NVIDIA's GPU technology for its AI workloads, data analytics, and various cloud services.
  • Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) - As a leading OEM and system builder, Dell integrates NVIDIA's GPUs into its servers, workstations, and personal computers, catering to enterprise, professional visualization, and gaming markets.
  • Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG.DE) - Mercedes-Benz has a strategic partnership with NVIDIA for developing software-defined vehicles and next-generation in-car computing platforms, including AI Cockpit and autonomous driving solutions.

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM)

SK Hynix Inc. (000660.KS)

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930.KS)

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)

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Jensen Huang
Founder, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Jensen Huang co-founded NVIDIA in 1993 and has served as its President and CEO since its inception. He previously gained experience in the tech industry, working at Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and LSI Logic Corporation, where he rose to become a division director. Huang earned a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering from Oregon State University and a master's degree in electrical engineering from Stanford University. Under his leadership, NVIDIA navigated early challenges, including near-bankruptcy in the 1990s, and expanded into GPU production, high-performance computing, and artificial intelligence.

Colette Kress
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Colette Kress joined NVIDIA in September 2013 as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, overseeing the company's financial strategy and operations. She has over three decades of experience in senior finance roles within the technology sector. Before NVIDIA, Kress spent three years as Senior Vice President and CFO of Cisco's Business Technology and Operations Finance organization. Prior to that, she worked for 13 years at Microsoft, including four years as CFO of the Server and Tools division, and held various senior corporate planning and finance positions. She began her career at Texas Instruments. Kress holds an MBA from Southern Methodist University and a bachelor's degree in finance from the University of Arizona.

Chris A. Malachowsky
Founder and NVIDIA Fellow

Chris A. Malachowsky is a co-founder of NVIDIA and currently serves as an NVIDIA Fellow. He has held various positions at the company since its founding in 1993, overseeing areas such as IT, operations, and product engineering. Before co-founding NVIDIA, Malachowsky held engineering and technical leadership roles at companies including Hewlett-Packard and Sun Microsystems.

Debora Shoquist
Executive Vice President, Operations

Debora Shoquist serves as the Executive Vice President of Operations at NVIDIA, a role she has held since joining the company in 2007. With over two decades of experience prior to NVIDIA, she managed operations at various companies, including Quantum and Coherent.

Jay Puri
Executive Vice President, Worldwide Field Operations

Jay Puri is the Executive Vice President of Worldwide Field Operations at NVIDIA, responsible for overseeing the company's global business, including sales, partnerships, program management, and support services. Prior to joining NVIDIA in 2005, Puri accumulated over two decades of experience in sales, marketing, and management, including a significant tenure as Senior Vice President of the Asia-Pacific Group at Sun Microsystems, and roles at Hewlett-Packard, Booz Allen, and Texas Instruments.

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The key risks to NVIDIA's business include:

  1. Intensifying Competition from Hyperscalers and Rivals: A significant risk to NVIDIA stems from its largest customers, major hyperscalers such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, increasingly developing their own custom artificial intelligence (AI) chips and accelerators (e.g., Google's TPU, Amazon's Inferentia/Tranium, Microsoft's Maia, Meta's MTIA, and Tesla's Dojo D1). This trend aims to reduce their dependence on NVIDIA and optimize hardware for their specific AI workloads, particularly for inference, which could erode NVIDIA's market share and revenue from its critical Data Center segment. Additionally, traditional rivals like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) with its MI300 series and Intel with its Gaudi accelerators are ramping up competition in the AI chip market.
  2. Geopolitical Tensions and Export Controls: NVIDIA operates in a global market and faces substantial geopolitical risks, especially regarding U.S. government restrictions on selling advanced AI chips to China and other regions. China has historically been a major market for NVIDIA, significantly contributing to its data center revenue. These export controls can directly reduce sales, necessitate product redesigns, create uncertainty for customers, and enable local competitors to gain traction, thereby impacting NVIDIA's growth prospects and operational complexity.
  3. Reliance on the AI Boom and Potential for Decelerating AI Spending: NVIDIA's recent explosive revenue growth has been largely fueled by the high demand for AI infrastructure, particularly for training large AI models. However, the business faces a risk if enterprises or hyperscalers slow down their AI capital expenditures, overbuild their infrastructure, or if the evolution of AI workloads shifts away from NVIDIA's primary offerings (e.g., toward more efficient inference or custom accelerators). The market's extremely high expectations for NVIDIA's continued rapid growth also make the company vulnerable to any perceived deceleration in AI spending or shifts in technological requirements.

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The following are clear emerging threats for NVIDIA:

  • Major cloud service providers and hyperscalers developing their own custom AI accelerators and chips: Companies such as Google (TPUs), Amazon (Inferentia/Trainium), and Microsoft are investing significantly in designing specialized silicon tailored for AI and machine learning workloads within their own data centers. This strategic shift aims to optimize performance, reduce operational costs, and decrease reliance on third-party GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA for critical AI infrastructure.
  • Automotive manufacturers and autonomous driving companies designing their own custom AI and autonomous driving chips: A growing number of prominent automotive companies and autonomous vehicle developers are pursuing in-house development of specialized silicon for advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving capabilities. This trend could reduce the market demand for NVIDIA's automotive AI platforms and solutions.

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Here are the addressable market sizes for NVIDIA's main products and services:

  • Gaming GPUs (GeForce GPUs): The global gaming GPU market size was estimated at USD 87.57 billion in 2025.
  • Professional Visualization (Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs): The global advanced visualization market was valued at US$3.78 billion in 2024.
  • Automotive Platforms (AI Cockpit, Autonomous Driving, ADAS): The global automotive advanced driver assistance system market size was estimated at USD 68.26 billion in 2025.
  • Data Center Platforms and Systems:
    • AI Data Center (including GPU-based compute servers): The global AI Data Center Market size is anticipated to grow from USD 236.44 billion in 2025.
    • High Performance Computing (HPC): The global high performance computing market size was valued at USD 59.33 billion in 2025.
    • Data Center Networking Solutions (Mellanox): The global Data Center Networking Market is projected to grow from USD 55.64 billion in 2025.
  • Omniverse Software (Industrial Metaverse): The global industrial metaverse market size was valued at USD 29.05 billion in 2025.
  • Jetson (Robotics and Embedded Platforms): The global embedded AI market size was valued at USD 11.7 billion in 2025.

AI Analysis | Feedback

NVIDIA (NVDA) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:

  1. Sustained Demand for Data Center AI Infrastructure: NVIDIA anticipates continued exponential growth in demand for its AI computing power and data center platforms. Hyperscalers, cloud service providers, and enterprises are expected to maintain heavy investments in AI infrastructure, including NVIDIA's GPUs and accelerated computing solutions. The company's Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin architectures are key to meeting this demand. NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang has projected cumulative revenue from 2025-2027 for AI infrastructure to exceed $1 trillion.
  2. Expansion into Diverse AI Applications and Vertical Markets: Beyond traditional data center applications, NVIDIA expects significant growth from the expansion of AI into new and diverse vertical industries. These include automotive, financial services, healthcare, and robotics. The adoption of generative AI workloads, such as data preparation, large language model (LLM) fine-tuning, and retrieval augmented generation, is increasingly driving enterprise demand.
  3. Growth in the Automotive Segment: The automotive sector is a crucial growth driver, particularly with the increasing adoption of autonomous driving and AI cockpit solutions. Automakers are incorporating NVIDIA's DRIVE platform for software-defined autonomous vehicle fleets. Strategic partnerships with companies like Li Auto, Great Wall Motor, ZEEKR, Xiaomi EV, Hyundai, and Kia underscore this growth.
  4. Continuous Introduction of New Products and Architectural Advancements: NVIDIA's pipeline of new product launches and architectural innovations will be vital for future revenue. This includes new generations of GPUs like the Blackwell Ultra GB300 and B300 series chips, and the forthcoming Vera Rubin AI system, which are designed to offer substantial performance improvements and drive upgrade cycles.
  5. Development and Expansion of Software and Services: Growth in NVIDIA's software and services offerings, such as the NVIDIA AI Enterprise suite and the Omniverse platform, is also an expected revenue driver. These solutions enable various industrial applications, from digital twin creation and simulation in automotive design to broader AI development and deployment for enterprises.

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Share Repurchases

  • In August 2024, NVIDIA's board approved a $50 billion share repurchase authorization.
  • In August 2025, the board authorized an additional $60 billion increase to its share repurchase program, which has no expiration date.
  • NVIDIA's annual share buybacks amounted to $10.039 billion in 2023, $9.533 billion in 2024, and $33.706 billion in 2025.

Share Issuance

  • NVIDIA's annual stock-based compensation for 2023 was $2.709 billion.
  • The company's annual stock-based compensation for 2024 was $3.549 billion.
  • NVIDIA's annual stock-based compensation for 2025 was $4.737 billion.

Outbound Investments

  • NVIDIA committed up to $100 billion to OpenAI in September 2025 for AI infrastructure deployment, structured as 10 separate $10 billion investments, with the first tranche tied to infrastructure deployment goals.
  • The company announced plans to acquire a $5 billion stake in Intel in September 2025, aiming for collaboration on AI processors.
  • NVIDIA entered into an approximately $20 billion agreement with Groq in December 2025, which includes non-exclusive licensing of Groq's AI inference technology, acquisition of key assets, and key personnel joining NVIDIA.

Capital Expenditures

  • NVIDIA's capital expenditures were $1.833 billion in fiscal year 2023, $1.069 billion in fiscal year 2024, and increased to $3.236 billion in fiscal year 2025.
  • Capital expenditures for the fiscal year ending January 2026 peaked at $6.042 billion.
  • The primary focus of these capital expenditures is to support the rapid development of AI infrastructure and data center buildouts to meet the surging demand for its GPUs.

Interactive Breakdown

NVIDIA Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets vs. NVIDIA (NVDA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleDate
0DASHBOARDS 
1NVIDIA Stock Rockets 19% With 10-Day Winning Streak04/15/2026
2NVIDIA Stock Rockets 15% With 9-Day Winning Streak04/14/2026
38-Day Rally Sends NVIDIA Stock Up 14%04/11/2026
4Should You Buy NVIDIA Stock Despite Its High Valuation?03/31/2026
5Stress-Testing the NVDA Thesis: 5 Structural Risks to Watch Over the Next 6 Months03/13/2026
6How Does NVIDIA Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?03/03/2026
7What Could Light a Fire Under NVIDIA Stock02/26/2026
8The Risk Factors to Watch Out For in NVIDIA Stock02/19/2026
9NVIDIA Stock (+7.9%): AI Infra Spend Signals a Sector-Wide Chase02/07/2026
10Can NVIDIA Stock Recover If Markets Fall?02/06/2026
11ARTICLES 
12AVGO, NVDA Top Microchip Technology Stock on Price & Potential04/15/2026
13Why NVDA, MU Could Outperform Rambus Stock04/15/2026
14NVIDIA Stock 10-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 19%04/15/2026
15NVIDIA Stock Surges 15%, With A 9-Day Winning Spree04/14/2026
16Can NVIDIA Outrun Advanced Micro Devices in the Next Rally?04/11/2026
Title
0DASHBOARDS
1NVIDIA Stock Rockets 19% With 10-Day Winning Streak
2NVIDIA Stock Rockets 15% With 9-Day Winning Streak
38-Day Rally Sends NVIDIA Stock Up 14%
4Should You Buy NVIDIA Stock Despite Its High Valuation?
5Stress-Testing the NVDA Thesis: 5 Structural Risks to Watch Over the Next 6 Months
6How Does NVIDIA Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?
7What Could Light a Fire Under NVIDIA Stock
8The Risk Factors to Watch Out For in NVIDIA Stock
9NVIDIA Stock (+7.9%): AI Infra Spend Signals a Sector-Wide Chase
10Can NVIDIA Stock Recover If Markets Fall?
11ARTICLES
12AVGO, NVDA Top Microchip Technology Stock on Price & Potential
13Why NVDA, MU Could Outperform Rambus Stock
14NVIDIA Stock 10-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 19%
15NVIDIA Stock Surges 15%, With A 9-Day Winning Spree
16Can NVIDIA Outrun Advanced Micro Devices in the Next Rally?

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to NVDA.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PANW_3312026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V203312026PANWPalo Alto NetworksInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap		0.0%0.0%0.0%
ALKT_3312026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K03312026ALKTAlkami TechnologyInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days		0.0%0.0%0.0%
DBX_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026DBXDropboxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		2.6%2.6%0.0%
DLB_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026DLBDolby LaboratoriesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		3.5%3.5%0.0%
PTC_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026PTCPTCDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		3.5%3.5%0.0%
NVDA_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022NVDANVIDIAMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple		189.5%239.0%-2.4%
NVDA_6302022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE06302022NVDANVIDIADip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap		-3.6%179.3%-25.9%
NVDA_12312018_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE12312018NVDANVIDIADip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap		24.7%76.9%-4.1%

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Financials

NVDAAMDINTCAVGOQCOMMRVLMedian
NameNVIDIA Advanced.Intel Broadcom Qualcomm Marvell . 
Mkt Price196.51255.0763.81380.78132.84133.83165.17
Mkt Cap4,775.6415.0309.41,805.3142.1115.2362.2
Rev LTM215,93834,63952,85368,28244,8678,19548,860
Op Inc LTM130,3873,694-2328,30912,2051,3387,950
FCF LTM96,6766,735-4,94928,91112,9261,3929,830
FCF 3Y Avg61,5173,420-11,62822,67911,8501,2677,635
CFO LTM102,7187,7099,69729,68414,3901,75012,044
CFO 3Y Avg64,9664,1399,81923,26913,1281,60111,473

Growth & Margins

NVDAAMDINTCAVGOQCOMMRVLMedian
NameNVIDIA Advanced.Intel Broadcom Qualcomm Marvell . 
Rev Chg LTM65.5%34.3%-0.5%25.2%10.3%42.1%29.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg101.8%14.7%-5.5%26.2%2.3%13.3%14.0%
Rev Chg Q73.2%34.1%-4.1%29.5%5.0%22.1%25.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM15.4%8.2%-1.1%6.9%1.3%5.1%6.0%
Op Mgn LTM60.4%10.7%-0.0%41.5%27.2%16.3%21.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg59.0%6.8%-3.0%38.2%26.1%0.7%16.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.5%1.3%0.2%0.6%-0.8%1.6%1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM47.6%22.3%18.3%43.5%32.1%21.4%27.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg47.6%13.8%18.4%43.7%32.3%25.1%28.7%
FCF/Rev LTM44.8%19.4%-9.4%42.3%28.8%17.0%24.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg45.3%11.2%-21.7%42.6%29.1%19.9%24.5%

Valuation

NVDAAMDINTCAVGOQCOMMRVLMedian
NameNVIDIA Advanced.Intel Broadcom Qualcomm Marvell . 
Mkt Cap4,775.6415.0309.41,805.3142.1115.2362.2
P/S22.112.05.926.43.214.113.0
P/EBIT33.797.2116.863.210.735.349.3
P/E39.895.7-1,158.672.326.543.141.5
P/CFO46.553.831.960.89.965.850.2
Total Yield2.5%1.0%-0.1%1.4%6.5%2.5%1.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.7%0.2%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.1%1.2%-9.2%2.4%6.9%1.8%1.9%
D/E0.00.00.20.00.10.00.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Returns

NVDAAMDINTCAVGOQCOMMRVLMedian
NameNVIDIA Advanced.Intel Broadcom Qualcomm Marvell . 
1M Rtn9.0%31.9%39.4%18.4%2.3%52.4%25.2%
3M Rtn5.8%15.4%34.9%7.6%-19.1%61.2%11.5%
6M Rtn9.2%17.0%79.1%11.1%-16.9%55.4%14.0%
12M Rtn77.5%169.9%214.2%115.2%-2.3%156.8%136.0%
3Y Rtn635.0%178.0%105.0%539.6%18.4%235.5%206.8%
1M Excs Rtn4.0%26.8%34.4%13.4%-2.7%47.3%20.1%
3M Excs Rtn6.4%23.0%45.0%8.5%-20.9%61.7%15.7%
6M Excs Rtn1.0%12.4%69.1%11.4%-18.8%50.2%11.9%
12M Excs Rtn50.5%155.3%188.7%90.5%-31.1%121.8%106.2%
3Y Excs Rtn557.7%106.1%29.5%466.7%-54.1%174.6%140.4%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20262025202420232022
Compute & Networking116,19347,40515,06811,0466,841
Graphics14,30413,51711,90615,8689,834
All Other 00  
Total130,49760,92226,97426,91416,675


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20262025202420232022
Compute & Networking82,87532,0165,0834,5982,548
Graphics5,0855,8464,5528,4924,612
Acquisition-related and other costs-599    
Unallocated operating expenses-1,171    
Stock-based compensation expense-4,737    
All Other -4,890-5,411-3,049-2,628
Total81,45332,9724,22410,0414,532


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$196.51 
Market Cap ($ Bil)4,775.6 
First Trading Date01/22/1999 
Distance from 52W High-5.1% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$182.12$181.11
DMA Trendupdown
Distance from DMA7.9%8.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility37.9%34.8%
Downside Capture0.620.84
Upside Capture229.90193.81
Correlation (SPY)68.9%65.7%
NVDA Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.922.061.951.911.692.09
Up Beta0.413.512.822.031.702.04
Down Beta2.141.381.702.031.601.89
Up Capture273%231%214%211%306%4189%
Bmk +ve Days7162765139424
Stock +ve Days10193062134406
Down Capture140%179%168%159%134%112%
Bmk -ve Days12233358110323
Stock -ve Days12233364118344

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NVDA
NVDA83.2%34.9%1.78-
Sector ETF (XLK)53.2%21.1%1.9280.9%
Equity (SPY)24.2%12.9%1.4967.4%
Gold (GLD)53.4%27.6%1.55-0.9%
Commodities (DBC)26.8%16.2%1.478.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)18.7%13.8%1.003.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-6.8%42.9%-0.0534.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NVDA
NVDA69.4%51.6%1.21-
Sector ETF (XLK)17.3%24.7%0.6381.4%
Equity (SPY)11.1%17.0%0.5070.3%
Gold (GLD)22.5%17.8%1.036.3%
Commodities (DBC)11.7%18.8%0.5112.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.9%18.8%0.1131.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)5.8%56.5%0.3232.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NVDA
NVDA71.9%49.8%1.28-
Sector ETF (XLK)22.3%24.3%0.8476.4%
Equity (SPY)14.0%17.9%0.6765.4%
Gold (GLD)14.3%15.9%0.753.6%
Commodities (DBC)8.8%17.6%0.4217.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.4%20.7%0.2332.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.7%66.9%1.0721.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date3312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity280.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 315202622.5%
Average Daily Volume186.4 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity24,302.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.2%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/25/2026-5.5%-6.4%-12.4%
11/19/2025-3.2%-3.4%-1.5%
8/27/2025-0.8%-5.5%-1.9%
5/28/20253.2%5.3%17.0%
2/26/2025-8.5%-10.6%-15.1%
11/20/20240.5%-7.2%-7.7%
8/28/2024-6.4%-14.6%-3.3%
5/22/20249.3%16.4%24.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131310
# Negative111114
Median Positive4.0%9.4%19.1%
Median Negative-5.5%-6.4%-4.2%
Max Positive24.4%30.2%35.5%
Max Negative-8.5%-14.6%-29.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
01/31/202602/25/202610-K
10/31/202511/19/202510-Q
07/31/202508/27/202510-Q
04/30/202505/28/202510-Q
01/31/202502/26/202510-K
10/31/202411/20/202410-Q
07/31/202408/28/202410-Q
04/30/202405/29/202410-Q
01/31/202402/21/202410-K
10/31/202311/21/202310-Q
07/31/202308/28/202310-Q
04/30/202305/26/202310-Q
01/31/202302/24/202310-K
10/31/202211/18/202210-Q
07/31/202208/31/202210-Q
04/30/202205/27/202210-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2027 Revenue76.44 Bil78.00 Bil79.56 Bil20.0% Higher NewGuidance: 65.00 Bil for Q4 2026
Q1 2027 GAAP Gross Margin74.4%74.9%75.4%0.1%0.1%Higher NewGuidance: 74.8% for Q4 2026
Q1 2027 Non-GAAP Gross Margin74.5%75.0%75.5%00Same NewGuidance: 75.0% for Q4 2026
Q1 2027 GAAP Operating Expenses 7.70 Bil 14.9% Higher NewGuidance: 6.70 Bil for Q4 2026
Q1 2027 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses 7.50 Bil 50.0% Higher NewGuidance: 5.00 Bil for Q4 2026
2027 GAAP Tax Rate17.0%18.0%19.0%  Higher New
2027 Non-GAAP Tax Rate17.0%18.0%19.0%  Higher New

Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/19/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2026 Revenue 65.00 Bil 20.4% Higher NewGuidance: 54.00 Bil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 GAAP Gross Margin 74.8% 2.0%1.5%Higher NewGuidance: 73.3% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin 75.0% 2.0%1.5%Higher NewGuidance: 73.5% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 GAAP Operating Expenses 6.70 Bil 13.6% Higher NewGuidance: 5.90 Bil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses 5.00 Bil 19.0% Higher NewGuidance: 4.20 Bil for Q3 2026

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Robertson, Donald F JrPrincipal Accounting OfficerDirectSell1062026189.8580,00015,187,74265,850,253Form
2Stevens, Mark ATrustSell12222025180.17222,50040,087,3801,373,141,944Form
3Robertson, Donald F JrPrincipal Accounting OfficerDirectSell12222025179.9824,5904,425,72776,826,583Form
4Jones, Harvey CH.C. Jones Living TrustSell12172025177.33250,00044,333,4501,229,504,889Form
5Shoquist, DeboraEVP, OperationsTrustSell12122025183.5280,00014,681,882288,947,330Form

NVDA Trade Sentinel

Stock Conviction

ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

The score of 7 reflects a high-quality business with a widening competitive moat that is the single best-positioned asset to capitalize on the AI super-cycle. The company's execution is elite. The rating is tempered slightly from the highest tier due to the 'Valid Premium' valuation, which creates only moderate, not extreme, risk/reward asymmetry from the current price. It is a core holding to accumulate on any macro- or sentiment-driven pullbacks.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: High-Beta Compounder, Secondary: Quality Compounder

The classification is 70% 'High-Beta Compounder' due to the extreme revenue growth (+65% FY26), high valuation (P/S > 20x), and the stock's performance being tightly linked to sustaining its lead in the AI super-cycle. It is 30% 'Quality Compounder' because of its durable competitive moat (CUDA ecosystem), dominant market position (~90% share), and exceptional profitability (75.2% gross margins), which are characteristics of a stalwart.

INVESTMENT THESIS
Data Center Dominance via Blackwell/Rubin Product Cycles Through 2027

NVIDIA's role as the indispensable hardware (GPU) and software (CUDA) platform for the global AI infrastructure build-out will drive sustained hyper-growth and premium profitability. The aggressive one-year product cadence from Blackwell to the upcoming Rubin architecture will maintain performance leadership and pricing power, capturing the majority of hyperscaler and sovereign AI capital expenditures.

Mechanism: NVIDIA captures value by selling high-margin, high-ASP data center GPUs and networking equipment. Its CUDA software platform creates a deep, sticky ecosystem, resulting in high switching costs for customers and reinforcing its market leadership. This allows the company to command premium prices for its leading-edge technology.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Data Center revenue grew 75% YoY in Q4 FY26, now comprising ~90% of total revenue.
  • Reported order backlog of over $500 billion for Blackwell/Rubin platforms through 2026 provides multi-year revenue visibility.
  • Dominant AI accelerator market share of 80-90% and sustained high non-GAAP gross margins of 75.2% demonstrate immense pricing power.
  • Secured over 60% of TSMC's critical CoWoS advanced packaging capacity for 2026, creating a supply chain moat against competitors.
PRIMARY RISK
Hyperscaler Custom Silicon Development Capping Long-Term Market Share

The largest customers (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta), representing 40-50% of revenue, are also NVIDIA's primary long-term strategic competitors. Their aggressive development of in-house custom AI chips (ASICs) to optimize for specific workloads (especially inference) and reduce costs poses a structural threat to NVIDIA's total addressable market and long-term pricing power.

Mechanism: As hyperscalers successfully deploy their own silicon (e.g., Google TPU, AWS Trainium) for large-scale, cost-sensitive workloads, they will reduce their dependency on NVIDIA GPUs. This could lead to market share erosion in parts of the AI market and create significant pricing pressure on NVIDIA over the multi-year outlook, even if NVIDIA maintains leadership in cutting-edge training.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Major customers are actively developing and expanding their own custom AI accelerators, including Google's TPUs, Amazon's Trainium, and Microsoft's Maia.
  • In-house silicon is identified as the dominant solution for the 'Cloud TCO Optimizer' customer profile, which is a structural risk to NVIDIA's margin-heavy model.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Threshold Rationale
Data Center Revenue Growth (YoY)> 60%This is the primary driver of the entire investment thesis. Any significant deceleration below this level would signal a potential peak in the AI build-out cycle or material competitive intrusion, challenging the premium valuation.
Non-GAAP Gross Margin> 73%Sustaining high margins is a direct indicator of pricing power and technological leadership. A material decline would suggest either increased competition or a mix shift to lower-value products, eroding profitability.
Accounts Receivable Growth vs. Revenue GrowthAR growth should not persistently outpace revenue growthMonitoring this ratio is critical for assessing earnings quality. A sustained divergence, where receivables grow significantly faster than sales, could be a leading indicator of channel stuffing or aggressive sales tactics that are not sustainable.
Core Investment Debate

The Hyperscale Growth 'Hand-Off'

BULL VIEW

The CUDA software moat and Blackwell performance create an insurmountable lead, ensuring NVIDIA captures the vast, untapped enterprise and sovereign AI markets, sustaining hyper-growth.

CORE TENSION

Can NVIDIA's growth, currently fueled by a massive hyperscaler buildout, transition to a durable enterprise and sovereign AI demand wave before capex budgets normalize and competition intensifies?

PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BULLISH

Data Center revenue grew 66% YoY in the last reported quarter, with CEO commentary stating 'Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out,' indicating extreme demand velocity.

BEAR VIEW

Hyperscaler capex will decelerate as 'good enough' custom silicon matures. China risk is material. Current growth rates and margins are unsustainable, leading to multiple compression.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Late February 2026
Q4 FY26 Earnings Call & Guidance
Watch: Forward guidance for Data Center revenue and commentary on hyperscaler CapEx trends. Any signs of demand 'digestion' or slowdown.
Next 3-6 Months
Competitor Benchmark Release (AMD, Google, Amazon)
Watch: Third-party validated benchmarks (e.g., MLPerf) showing superior price-to-performance for a competitor's chip on key AI models.
Anytime
Update on China and US Antitrust Investigations
Watch: Any official statement, fine, or ruling from the DOJ or Chinese regulators regarding NVIDIA's business practices.
H2 2026
Supply Chain Update on HBM4 Memory
Watch: Earnings calls from memory suppliers (SK Hynix, Samsung) signaling delays or yield issues with next-generation HBM4 production.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2025-08-12
Huawei Open-Sources CANN Software
Details: Huawei open-sourced its CANN software, a strategic move to build a domestic AI ecosystem around its Ascend chips, directly challenging NVIDIA's CUDA dominance in China.
Flat (0.6%)
$182.03 -> $183.13
2025-08-27
Q2 FY26 Earnings Release
Details: Reported revenue of $46.7B (up 56% YoY). Data Center revenue grew 17% sequentially. The positive results were met with a muted stock reaction.
Muted (-0.09%)
$181.74 -> $181.57
2025-09-15
China Announces Antitrust Investigation
Details: Chinese regulators announced an investigation into NVIDIA for potential anti-monopoly violations, adding a layer of regulatory risk in a key geopolitical region.
Changed Little (-0.04%)
$177.81 -> $177.74
2025-10-28
NVIDIA GTC Washington D.C. Keynote
Details: CEO Jensen Huang outlined a vision for AI infrastructure and U.S. technological leadership, reinforcing the company's strategic importance in national AI initiatives.
Rose significantly by 2.99%
$201.01 -> $207.02
2025-11-19
Q3 FY26 Earnings Release
Details: Reported record revenue of $57.0B (up 62% YoY), beating expectations. Data Center revenue hit $51.2B (up 66% YoY). Strong results driven by accelerating Blackwell demand.
Rose significantly by 2.84%
$181.34 -> $186.50
2026-01-15
U.S. Export Control Rules Formalized
Details: The U.S. government implemented a new licensing and fee-based system for sales of advanced chips to China, formalizing restrictions that create uncertainty for a key market.
Rose significantly by 2.13%
$183.14 -> $187.05
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4%-6%

NORMAL

Stock trades with explosive volatility (3.0x S&P 500). While fundamentals are strong and sentiment is Bullish, the expensive valuation and high volatility cap position size to manage drawdown risk.

Diversification Alternatives
AVGO
SECTOR

Offers broad AI exposure through its custom silicon business for clients like Google, but with a more diversified business model and less extreme valuation compared to NVIDIA.

Core Thesis: A best-in-class operator with strong moats in networking and custom chips, providing a more defensive way to invest in the AI infrastructure buildout.
ASML
SECTOR

ASML is a 'picks and shovels' monopoly on EUV lithography, essential for all advanced chip manufacturing. It is insulated from the chip-vs-chip competition faced by NVIDIA.

Core Thesis: As the sole supplier of a critical, irreplaceable technology, ASML's growth is tied to the entire semiconductor industry's capital expenditure cycle, not a single company's dominance.
How Is The Market Pricing NVDA?

NVIDIA is transitioning from a specialized graphics chip company into the foundational computing platform for the AI era, making its Data Center segment the primary driver of its valuation.

Filter all news through the lens of Data Center AI dominance and the sustainability of its growth trajectory.

What will confirm the thesis

Data Center revenue growth >100% YoY; new GPU architecture (e.g., Blackwell) announcements with significant performance gains; major cloud provider (AWS, MSFT, GOOG) capacity expansion announcements featuring NVIDIA hardware; evidence of CUDA's continued ecosystem lock-in.

What will damage the thesis

Deceleration in Data Center growth below consensus expectations; significant competitive traction from AMD's Instinct or Intel's Gaudi series in major cloud accounts; U.S. export control expansions to China impacting a significant portion of Data Center revenue; major customers (e.g., Microsoft, Amazon) announcing significant in-house AI accelerator progress.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Quarterly fluctuations in the Gaming or Professional Visualization segments; individual benchmark wins or losses against competitors on non-flagship products; short-term crypto-mining demand shifts.

Repricing Catalyst

The market is pricing in sustained, triple-digit growth in the Data Center segment, driven by the global build-out of AI infrastructure. The launch of the next-generation Blackwell GPU architecture is the key near-term catalyst expected to maintain pricing power and performance leadership, securing the next wave of cloud and enterprise AI spending.

What NVDA Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Q4 FY2024 Earnings Press Release, Feb 21 2024
AI & Cloud Data Center GPUs
$47.5B TTM (78% of Total) · 76.7% Margin
What It Is

Hopper Architecture GPUs (H100, H200), Mellanox InfiniBand networking hardware, DGX SuperPOD systems, and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software.

Who Pays & How

Major cloud service providers (e.g., AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud) and enterprises pay for NVIDIA's hardware to build out AI training and inference infrastructure. The CUDA software ecosystem creates significant developer lock-in and high switching costs.

Per-unit hardware sales of GPUs and networking equipment, plus software enterprise licenses.
Competition
AMD — Instinct MI300X
The MI300X offers superior memory capacity (192GB vs 80GB) and bandwidth (5.3 TB/s vs 3.35 TB/s) compared to the H100, which can provide a latency advantage in specific large language model inference tasks.
NVIDIA's CUDA software platform represents a deep, multi-year competitive moat, creating a vast ecosystem of developers and optimized applications that are not easily portable to competing hardware. This software advantage often outweighs hardware spec differences.
Gaming & PC GPUs
$10.5B TTM (17% of Total) · 2% Margin
What It Is

GeForce RTX series GPUs (e.g., RTX 40 SUPER Series) for desktop and laptop PCs.

Who Pays & How

Consumers and PC OEMs pay for discrete GPUs to enable high-performance graphics for video games and content creation.

Per-unit hardware sales to OEMs and channel partners.
Competition
AMD — Radeon RX series
AMD often competes on price-to-performance in mid-range and entry-level segments.
NVIDIA's top-tier performance, brand recognition in the gaming community, and features like DLSS and ray tracing create a strong competitive moat, particularly in the profitable high-end market, where it held ~88% share in 2023.
Professional Visualization
$1.6B TTM (2.6% of Total) · 2% Margin
What It Is

NVIDIA RTX Ada Generation GPUs for workstations, and the Omniverse software platform.

Who Pays & How

Professionals in media, design, and scientific industries pay for high-performance GPUs and software for tasks like 3D design, rendering, and scientific simulation.

Per-unit hardware sales and software licenses for Omniverse.
Competition
AMD — Radeon Pro series
AMD competes on price and open-source software drivers.
Deep integration with professional software suites (e.g., Adobe, Autodesk) and the established Omniverse platform for digital twins and collaboration provides a strong moat.
Automotive
$1.1B TTM (1.8% of Total) · 2% Margin
What It Is

NVIDIA DRIVE Orin system-on-a-chip (SoC) for autonomous driving and in-car infotainment, and DRIVE AGX platform.

Who Pays & How

Automakers (OEMs) and Tier 1 suppliers pay for the DRIVE platform to power in-vehicle AI, from infotainment to advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving.

Per-unit hardware sales (SoCs) to automotive OEMs.
Competition
Qualcomm — Snapdragon Digital Chassis
Qualcomm has deep, long-standing relationships with automotive manufacturers and offers a broad, integrated solution covering telematics, cockpit, and ADAS.
NVIDIA's leadership in AI processing and its end-to-end DRIVE platform, including simulation tools, offers a powerful value proposition for automakers developing next-generation autonomous capabilities.
NVDA Evolution: Price Return by Era
1993–2005 · The GPU for Gaming
Winning the Graphics War
Founded in 1993, NVIDIA's early years were defined by intense competition in the PC graphics market. The launch of the GeForce 256 in 1999, marketed as the world's first GPU, was a pivotal moment, establishing a brand that would dominate the gaming industry. This era was characterized by a focus on winning benchmarks and securing design wins with PC OEMs and in gaming consoles like the original Microsoft Xbox.
2006–2017 · The General Purpose GPU
CUDA and the Dawn of Accelerated Computing ~+1,800% (2012-2017)
The launch of the CUDA architecture in 2006 was a strategic inflection point, transforming the GPU from a graphics-only processor into a general-purpose parallel computing engine. This opened up new markets in high-performance computing (HPC) and scientific research. The 2012 success of AlexNet, an AI neural network trained on NVIDIA GPUs, demonstrated the profound potential of GPUs for AI, laying the groundwork for the company's future dominance.
2018–Present · The AI Platform
Powering the AI Revolution +927.4% (2021–2024)
This era marks NVIDIA's ascent as the indispensable hardware provider for the AI boom. The introduction of Tensor Cores and architectures like Hopper solidified its performance leadership, making its Data Center segment the primary revenue and growth engine. The company's valuation soared as demand from cloud providers and enterprises for AI training and inference infrastructure exploded, cementing NVIDIA's role as a foundational platform for modern AI.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure trend is constructive with some caveats. The regime is supportive but not with full conviction. Relative to SPY: Performance in line with the broader market with no relative edge or drag in current window. Volume and momentum are strongly confirming. The institutional accumulation is evident and momentum is accelerating. Earnings history is a strong counter-signal. The market has consistently rejected the narrative. This is not noise, but institutional disagreement. NOTE: Structure and earnings history are contradicting each other. The price trend says one thing, and the market reaction to catalysts says another. Treat this with caution and weigh the most recent earnings event heavily.
① Structure
+2
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-4
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
1 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Uptrend Cooling · - ▾
2 Momentum Accelerating ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Neutral Relative Strength ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Accumulation ▾
5 Volatility Normal ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Flat ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Consistent Pressure ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Price Intelligence is derived from price-volume pattern analysis only. All moving averages are simple (SMA). Relative strength benchmarked against SPY.

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