Neumora Therapeutics (NMRA)
Market Price (6/21/2026): $1.51 | Market Cap: $271.6 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Neumora Therapeutics (NMRA)
Market Price (6/21/2026): $1.51Market Cap: $271.6 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -34% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -123%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -162% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -223 Mil Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -86% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 134% Key risksNMRA key risks include [1] the pivotal Phase 3 trial failure of its lead candidate, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -123%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -162% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -223 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -86% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 134% |
| Key risksNMRA key risks include [1] the pivotal Phase 3 trial failure of its lead candidate, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Neumora Therapeutics (NMRA) stock has lost about 55% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Failure of Key Phase 3 Clinical Trials for Navacaprant.
Neumora Therapeutics announced in Q2 2026 (June 15, 2026) that its Phase 3 KOASTAL-2 and KOASTAL-3 studies for navacaprant, a drug candidate for major depressive disorder (MDD), failed to meet their primary and key secondary endpoints. In the KOASTAL-2 study, navacaprant achieved a 12.2-point reduction in Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) scores, which was comparable to the 12-point reduction seen in the placebo group. Similarly, in the KOASTAL-3 study, navacaprant resulted in a 10.1-point reduction in MADRS scores, which was numerically lower than the 10.8-point improvement observed with placebo. This significant clinical setback was the primary catalyst for a sharp decline in the stock, with shares tumbling 48.6% on June 16, 2026.
2. Discontinuation of the Navacaprant Development Program.
As a direct consequence of the unsuccessful Phase 3 clinical trials, Neumora Therapeutics made the decision in Q2 2026 to discontinue the entire development program for navacaprant for MDD. This action effectively removed a significant late-stage asset from the company's pipeline, eliminating its potential for future revenue and further contributing to investor concern and the stock's downward trend.
Show more
Neumora Therapeutics (NMRA) stock has lost about 55% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Failure of Key Phase 3 Clinical Trials for Navacaprant.
Neumora Therapeutics announced in Q2 2026 (June 15, 2026) that its Phase 3 KOASTAL-2 and KOASTAL-3 studies for navacaprant, a drug candidate for major depressive disorder (MDD), failed to meet their primary and key secondary endpoints. In the KOASTAL-2 study, navacaprant achieved a 12.2-point reduction in Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) scores, which was comparable to the 12-point reduction seen in the placebo group. Similarly, in the KOASTAL-3 study, navacaprant resulted in a 10.1-point reduction in MADRS scores, which was numerically lower than the 10.8-point improvement observed with placebo. This significant clinical setback was the primary catalyst for a sharp decline in the stock, with shares tumbling 48.6% on June 16, 2026.
2. Discontinuation of the Navacaprant Development Program.
As a direct consequence of the unsuccessful Phase 3 clinical trials, Neumora Therapeutics made the decision in Q2 2026 to discontinue the entire development program for navacaprant for MDD. This action effectively removed a significant late-stage asset from the company's pipeline, eliminating its potential for future revenue and further contributing to investor concern and the stock's downward trend.
3. Workforce Reduction and Restructuring Efforts.
In response to the navacaprant trial failures and the discontinuation of the program, Neumora Therapeutics announced in Q2 2026 a plan to reduce its workforce by approximately 35%. This restructuring is projected to generate annualized cost savings of approximately $10 million, although it will incur about $2 million in one-time restructuring charges. This strategic shift reflects the company's efforts to realign resources towards its remaining clinical portfolio following the major setback.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -56.7% change in NMRA stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.49 | 1.51 | -56.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 162 | 180 | -10.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NMRA | -56.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 2.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | -6.4% | 18.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.6% change in NMRA stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.24 | 1.51 | -32.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 162 | 180 | -10.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NMRA | -32.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 4.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | -4.4% | 18.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 110.8% change in NMRA stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 0.72 | 1.51 | 110.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 161 | 180 | -10.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NMRA | 110.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 10.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.6% | 11.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NMRA | ||
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 16.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 22.9% | 16.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NMRA Return | - | - | 5% | -38% | -83% | -15% | -91% |
| Peers Return | -16% | 9% | 59% | -9% | 27% | 17% | 99% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NMRA Win Rate | - | - | 50% | 42% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 48% | 52% | 48% | 58% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NMRA Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -56% | -94% | -75% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -50% | -33% | -37% | -44% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AXSM, NBIX, JAZZ, ACAD, BHVN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NMRA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 24 days |
In The Past
Neumora Therapeutics's stock fell -62.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 169.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | NMRA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 24 days |
In The Past
Neumora Therapeutics's stock fell -62.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 169.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Neumora Therapeutics (NMRA)
Neumora Therapeutics (NMRA) Business Description
Neumora Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to addressing the global crisis in brain diseases, encompassing a wide range of underserved neuropsychiatric disorders and neurodegenerative diseases. The company differentiates itself by employing a "precision neuroscience" approach to drug development. This involves building a diversified therapeutic pipeline focused on novel mechanisms of action and leveraging its proprietary "Precision Toolbox," which integrates machine learning algorithms, translational tools, and patient data insights. This strategy aims to better understand the biological drivers of these complex and heterogeneous disorders, identify targeted patient populations, optimize clinical trial designs, and ultimately increase the likelihood of matching the right drug to the right patient.
Neumora has rapidly scaled its pipeline, which currently consists of seven clinical and preclinical neuroscience programs. Its most advanced product candidate is navacaprant (NMRA-140), a novel once-daily oral kappa opioid receptor (KOR) antagonist. Navacaprant is being developed for the treatment of moderate to severe major depressive disorder (MDD), a condition where many patients do not respond adequately to existing treatments. Neumora is initiating a pivotal Phase 3 program for navacaprant monotherapy and anticipates releasing topline results for its KOASTAL-1 study in the second half of 2024. The company expects to advance multiple other programs into clinical trials over the next 12 to 18 months, supporting numerous anticipated data readouts.
The primary market Neumora serves includes the vast population of patients suffering from brain diseases, which collectively affect over 1.5 billion individuals globally. This market represents a significant area of unmet medical need, particularly in conditions like MDD, where an estimated 85% of patients either do not receive pharmacological treatment or fail to achieve remission with first-line therapies. By focusing on novel mechanisms of action and a precision-guided development strategy, Neumora aims to provide new and more effective treatment options for patients who currently lack diverse and targeted therapeutic choices.
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Neumora Therapeutics is like **Moderna, but for brain diseases**, using a data-driven 'precision medicine' approach to find specific treatments for complex neurological and psychiatric disorders.
Alternatively, think of Neumora Therapeutics as **a Loxo Oncology for brain diseases**, leveraging a 'precision medicine' strategy to develop targeted therapies for specific patient populations in neurological and psychiatric disorders.
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- Navacaprant (NMRA-140): A novel once-daily oral kappa opioid receptor (KOR) antagonist currently in a pivotal Phase 3 program for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD).
- Six Clinical and Preclinical Neuroscience Programs: A pipeline of drug candidates targeting novel mechanisms of action for a broad range of underserved neuropsychiatric disorders and neurodegenerative diseases.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Neumora Therapeutics (NMRA) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. Its primary focus is on the research and development of novel therapeutic candidates for brain diseases. As a clinical-stage company, Neumora Therapeutics is currently developing its drug candidates through various phases of clinical trials, such as the pivotal Phase 3 program for navacaprant (NMRA-140).
At this stage of development, Neumora Therapeutics does not have major customers in the traditional sense, as it is not yet commercializing or selling approved pharmaceutical products to other companies or individuals. Its "products" are investigational drug candidates that are undergoing clinical evaluation.
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Paul L. Berns, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
Paul L. Berns is the co-founder, Chief Executive Officer, and Chairman of Neumora Therapeutics. He is also a Managing Director with ARCH Venture Partners. Berns has a history of leadership roles, including serving as President, CEO, and Chairman of Anacor Pharmaceuticals, which was acquired by Pfizer in 2016. He also held the roles of President and CEO at Allos Therapeutics, acquired by Spectrum Pharmaceuticals in 2012, and President and CEO of Bone Care International, acquired by Genzyme Corporation in 2005. Berns co-founded and was Executive Chairman of Tenvie Therapeutics and Ollin Biosciences, and also co-founded and was Chairman of the Board for HI-Bio prior to its acquisition by Biogen in July 2024. Additionally, he was a co-founder and Lead Independent Director of Metsera Therapeutics before its acquisition by Pfizer in November 2025. His career includes senior management positions at Bristol-Myers Squibb from 1990 to 2000.
Michael Milligan, Chief Financial Officer
Michael Milligan is Neumora's Chief Financial Officer. He joined Neumora in December 2021 as Senior Vice President of Finance and Principal Accounting Officer and was instrumental in the company's successful IPO in 2023. Prior to Neumora, he served as Vice President of Finance and Corporate Controller at Y-Mabs Therapeutics, Inc. His experience also includes roles as Vice President of Finance and Corporate Controller at Acorda Therapeutics, Inc., Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at New Haven Pharmaceuticals, Inc., and Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer at Shionogi, Inc. Milligan began his career in public accounting at KPMG LLP and Ernst & Young LLP. He is a Certified Public Accountant.
Joshua Pinto, Ph.D., President
Dr. Joshua Pinto currently serves as President of Neumora, a role he assumed after initially joining the company as Chief Financial Officer in June 2021. In his previous CFO role, he contributed to building Neumora's neuroscience pipeline through business development and played a key part in the company's fundraising strategy. Dr. Pinto's background also includes serving on the Board of Directors for Metsera, Inc. Earlier in his career, he worked as a healthcare investment banker and in global external R&D at Eli Lilly. He holds a Ph.D. in neuroscience and an MBA in finance from McMaster University.
Bill Aurora, Pharm.D., Chief Operating and Development Officer
Dr. Bill Aurora is the Chief Operating and Development Officer at Neumora, having joined the company in 2021 and held roles of increasing responsibility. Before joining Neumora, he was the Chief Scientific Affairs Officer at Dermira, Inc., which was acquired by Eli Lilly in 2020. His prior experience includes vice president roles in medical affairs at Neurocrine Biosciences (2015-2016) and global scientific affairs at Merck Research Laboratories (2014-2015). He also held various positions at Amgen from 2002 to 2014, including Vice President, Global Scientific Affairs, Global Development. Dr. Aurora is board-certified in psychiatric pharmacy practice.
John Reynders, Ph.D., Chief Data Sciences Officer
Dr. John Reynders serves as Neumora's Chief Data Sciences Officer, a role he assumed in 2020. He is an experienced data scientist with over two decades of experience in computational science and its integration into drug development. Prior to Neumora, he was Vice President of Data Science, Genomics and Bioinformatics at Alexion Pharmaceuticals. He was also the founding Chief Information Officer of Moderna Therapeutics and served as Head of Neuroscience Biomarkers and Integrative Solutions at Johnson & Johnson. His extensive career includes executive positions leading data sciences, informatics, and technology at AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, and Celera.
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The key risks to Neumora Therapeutics' business are:
-
Clinical Trial Failures and Inability to Secure Regulatory Approval: As a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, Neumora's success heavily relies on its therapeutic candidates successfully progressing through clinical trials and ultimately receiving regulatory approval. The company is initiating a pivotal Phase 3 program for its most advanced product candidate, navacaprant, and anticipates releasing topline results in the second half of 2024. Failure to demonstrate efficacy and safety in these trials, or an inability to obtain regulatory approval for any of its pipeline programs, including navacaprant, would significantly impede its business prospects.
-
Market Acceptance and Competition from Established Treatments: Even if Neumora's product candidates are approved, they face the challenge of gaining market acceptance and competing effectively against existing treatments. The background notes that markets for prevalent brain disorders, such as Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), have been dominated by single classes of drugs (e.g., serotonin-targeting antidepressants). While Neumora aims to address unmet needs with novel mechanisms, it must prove significant advantages over these entrenched standard-of-care options to capture market share.
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Neumora Therapeutics' primary product candidate, navacaprant (NMRA-140), targets Major Depressive Disorder (MDD).
The addressable market for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) treatment is substantial both globally and in the United States:
- Globally, the major depressive disorder treatment market was approximately USD 12,000 million (USD 12 billion) in 2025, and it is projected to grow to USD 15,800 million (USD 15.8 billion) by 2035.
- In the United States, the Major Depressive Disorder market size was approximately USD 5,600 million (USD 5.6 billion) in 2023, with an expected increase by 2034 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.8%.
- Additionally, over 21 million adults in the United States are diagnosed with Major Depressive Disorder.
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- Successful Advancement and Potential Approval of Navacaprant (NMRA-140) for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD): Navacaprant is Neumora's most advanced product candidate, a kappa opioid receptor (KOR) antagonist. Following adjustments to its pivotal Phase 3 program, the company anticipates a joint topline data readout for the KOASTAL-2 and KOASTAL-3 studies in the second quarter of 2026. Positive outcomes from these trials could lead to regulatory submissions and eventual market approval, with analysts projecting U.S. sales for navacaprant potentially reaching $750 million by 2028 and up to $3 billion at peak, if successfully commercialized.
- Clinical Progression of NMRA-215 for Obesity: Neumora has prioritized NMRA-215, a highly brain-penetrant NLRP3 inhibitor, for the treatment of obesity. The company plans to initiate a Phase 1 clinical program in the first half of 2026, with initial weight loss data expected around the end of 2026. Successful development in this area could open a significant market opportunity in the growing obesity treatment landscape.
- Advancement of the M4 Positive Allosteric Modulator (PAM) Franchise (NMRA-861 and NMRA-898) for Schizophrenia: Neumora is progressing Phase 1 clinical studies for NMRA-898 and NMRA-861, targeting schizophrenia. Initial clinical data for NMRA-861 is anticipated in the first quarter of 2026, with a comprehensive update on the M4 franchise expected in mid-2026. Successful development of these candidates could address substantial unmet needs in schizophrenia.
- Further Development of NMRA-511 for Alzheimer's Disease (AD) Agitation: NMRA-511, a vasopressin 1a receptor (V1aR) antagonist, demonstrated a clinically meaningful effect in its Phase 1b study for AD agitation, with positive results reported in January 2026. The progression of this program into later-stage clinical trials is expected and could contribute to future revenue generation by addressing a significant unmet medical need in AD agitation.
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Inbound Investments and Share Issuances
- Neumora Therapeutics raised over $600 million in venture financing prior to its initial public offering, including a Series A round and a $112 million Series B round in October 2022.
- The company completed an initial public offering (IPO) in September 2023, raising approximately $250 million gross.
- In May 2025, Neumora secured a $125 million venture debt facility from K2 HealthVentures, with $40 million available in 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In 2020, Neumora acquired Abelian Therapeutics, BlackThorn Therapeutics, Syllable Life Sciences, Propellex Bio, and Alairion, which became wholly-owned subsidiaries.
- In February 2022, the company licensed global rights to an M4 muscarinic receptor positive allosteric modulator program from Vanderbilt University.
Capital Expenditures
- Neumora Therapeutics reported capital expenditures of approximately $1.3 million in 2024.
- Capital expenditures were approximately $0.8 million in 2023 and $0.5 million in 2022.
- These expenditures likely supported the company's research and development activities, including its therapeutic pipeline and the Precision Toolbox.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Neumora Therapeutics Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 89.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.3 |
| Rev LTM | 902 |
| Op Inc LTM | -48 |
| FCF LTM | 23 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -25 |
| CFO LTM | 26 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -8 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 19.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 27.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 30.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 27.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Development of clinical and preclinical neuroscience programs that target novel mechanisms of action | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Development of clinical and preclinical neuroscience programs that target novel mechanisms of action | -237 | -244 |
| Total | -237 | -244 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development of clinical and preclinical neuroscience programs that target novel mechanisms of action | 496 | 426 | 429 | 198 |
| Total | 496 | 426 | 429 | 198 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1.51 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/15/2023 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -57.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1.93 | $2.19 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -21.6% | -31.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 193.5% | 134.3% |
| Downside Capture | 110.24 | 64.10 |
| Upside Capture | -110.38 | 122.88 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -1.3% | 8.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.40 | 2.76 | 2.17 | 1.61 | 1.86 | 0.09 |
| Up Beta | 0.07 | 1.88 | 1.53 | 1.93 | 1.49 | 0.10 |
| Down Beta | 4.52 | 3.00 | 1.54 | 1.43 | 2.41 | -0.16 |
| Up Capture | 111% | 154% | 75% | 122% | 383% | 144% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 20 | 26 | 54 | 113 | 328 |
| Down Capture | 1139% | 643% | 364% | 182% | 130% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 19 | 34 | 65 | 128 | 336 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NMRA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMRA | 66.7% | 133.3% | 0.99 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 14.0% | 15.0% | 0.66 | 11.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 8.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -2.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 10.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.5% | -1.08 | 4.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NMRA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMRA | -39.5% | 114.0% | -0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.4% | 14.7% | 0.19 | 16.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 16.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | -0.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 16.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 5.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NMRA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMRA | -22.2% | 114.0% | -0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.4% | 16.6% | 0.46 | 16.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 16.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | -0.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 16.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 5.7% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/15/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -16.7% | -23.6% | -30.0% |
| 11/6/2025 | -1.5% | 9.2% | -16.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | 3.8% | -1.9% | 5.7% |
| 5/12/2025 | -1.9% | -0.3% | 33.1% |
| 3/3/2025 | -9.9% | -4.5% | -35.9% |
| 11/12/2024 | -17.1% | -27.9% | -22.9% |
| 8/6/2024 | 0.3% | -6.7% | -8.1% |
| 5/7/2024 | 4.9% | -4.2% | 6.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| # Negative | 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 9.2% | 10.6% |
| Median Negative | -9.9% | -4.5% | -22.5% |
| Max Positive | 4.9% | 9.2% | 33.1% |
| Max Negative | -17.1% | -27.9% | -35.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -16.7% | -23.6% | -30.0% |
| 11/6/2025 | -1.5% | 9.2% | -16.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | 3.8% | -1.9% | 5.7% |
| 5/12/2025 | -1.9% | -0.3% | 33.1% |
| 3/3/2025 | -9.9% | -4.5% | -35.9% |
| 11/12/2024 | -17.1% | -27.9% | -22.9% |
| 8/6/2024 | 0.3% | -6.7% | -8.1% |
| 5/7/2024 | 4.9% | -4.2% | 6.8% |
| 3/7/2024 | 3.3% | -19.5% | -22.1% |
| 11/1/2023 | 1.2% | -1.5% | 14.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| # Negative | 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 9.2% | 10.6% |
| Median Negative | -9.9% | -4.5% | -22.5% |
| Max Positive | 4.9% | 9.2% | 33.1% |
| Max Negative | -17.1% | -27.9% | -35.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/30/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 09/18/2023 | 424B4 |
| 06/30/2022 | 09/02/2022 | DRS/A |
| 03/31/2022 | 06/10/2022 | DRS/A |
| 09/30/2021 | 02/14/2022 | DRS/A |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/30/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 09/18/2023 | 424B4 |
| 06/30/2022 | 09/02/2022 | DRS/A |
| 03/31/2022 | 06/10/2022 | DRS/A |
| 09/30/2021 | 02/14/2022 | DRS/A |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2027 Cash Runway | |||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | 2,027 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/29/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurora, Daljit Singh | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 3.56 | 6,165 | 21,917 | 294,247 | Form |
| 2 | Pinto, Joshua | President | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 3.54 | 5,967 | 21,093 | 204,263 | Form |
| 3 | Berns, Paul L | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 3.51 | 9,819 | 34,459 | 25,952,662 | Form |
| 4 | Milligan, Michael Lee | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 3.56 | 1,436 | 5,119 | 74,986 | Form |
| 5 | Aurora, Daljit Singh | See Remarks | See footnote | Sell | 11132025 | 2.68 | 114,703 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurora, Daljit Singh | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 3.56 | 6,165 | 21,917 | 294,247 | Form |
| 2 | Pinto, Joshua | President | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 3.54 | 5,967 | 21,093 | 204,263 | Form |
| 3 | Berns, Paul L | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 3.51 | 9,819 | 34,459 | 25,952,662 | Form |
| 4 | Milligan, Michael Lee | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 3.56 | 1,436 | 5,119 | 74,986 | Form |
| 5 | Aurora, Daljit Singh | See Remarks | See footnote | Sell | 11132025 | 2.68 | 114,703 | Form | ||
| 6 | Burow, Kristina | ARCH Venture Fund XII, L.P. | Buy | 10292025 | 2.61 | 1,915,700 | 4,999,977 | 15,782,427 | Form | |
| 7 | Arch, Venture Partners Xii, Llc | ARCH Venture Fund XII, L.P. | Buy | 10292025 | 2.61 | 1,915,700 | 4,999,977 | 15,782,427 | Form | |
| 8 | Arch, Venture Partners X, Llc | ARCH Venture Fund XII, L.P. | Buy | 10292025 | 2.61 | 1,915,700 | 4,999,977 | 15,782,427 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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