Newmont (NEM)
Market Price (3/7/2026): $115.91 | Market Cap: $126.5 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Newmont (NEM)
Market Price (3/7/2026): $115.91Market Cap: $126.5 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 5.8% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 168% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 49% | Key risksNEM key risks include [1] rising production costs eroding profitability and [2] legal and tax disputes stemming from its extensive global operational footprint. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.3 Bil | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Renewable Energy Transition, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 5.8% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 49% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Renewable Energy Transition, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 168% |
| Key risksNEM key risks include [1] rising production costs eroding profitability and [2] legal and tax disputes stemming from its extensive global operational footprint. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Newmont reported a robust fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial performance, exceeding analyst expectations and demonstrating strong cash generation. The company announced adjusted earnings per share of $2.52 for Q4 2025, surpassing consensus estimates of $1.81 to $1.99, on revenues of $6.82 billion, which beat estimates of $6.06 billion to $6.21 billion. This strong performance was underpinned by a record $7.3 billion in free cash flow for the full year 2025, including $2.8 billion generated in the fourth quarter. Newmont also enhanced its capital allocation framework, notably increasing its quarterly dividend by 4% to $0.26 per share, and strengthened its balance sheet by reducing debt by $3.4 billion, ending 2025 with $2.1 billion in net cash and $11.6 billion in total liquidity.
2. Sustained high gold prices and a bullish outlook for the metal provided a significant tailwind for Newmont's stock. Gold prices experienced a remarkable 2025, achieving over 50 all-time highs and returning over 60%, largely driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker US dollar, and increased demand from ETFs and central banks. Newmont's average realized gold price in Q4 2025 was $4,216 per ounce, exceeding analyst estimates of $3,856 per ounce. Market analysts project gold prices to continue climbing, with some forecasts anticipating the metal to surpass $4,000 per ounce by the second half of 2026, and certain models even predicting up to $10,567 per ounce by the end of 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.4% change in NEM stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 90.55 | 116.29 | 28.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 21,503 | 22,669 | 5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 33.4% | 31.3% | -6.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.8 | 17.9 | 29.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,097 | 1,091 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEM | 28.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 31.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 11.5% | 60.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 57.6% change in NEM stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 37.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 73.79 | 116.29 | 57.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,584 | 22,669 | 10.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.5% | 31.3% | 2.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.0 | 17.9 | 37.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,110 | 1,091 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 57.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEM | 57.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.5% | 29.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 8.6% | 50.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 176.6% change in NEM stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 74.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 42.04 | 116.29 | 176.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,682 | 22,669 | 21.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.9% | 31.3% | 74.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.2 | 17.9 | 26.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,131 | 1,091 | 3.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 176.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEM | 176.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.2% | 22.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 14.0% | 43.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 189.8% change in NEM stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 108.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.13 | 116.29 | 189.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,915 | 22,669 | 90.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.7 | 5.6 | 108.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 797 | 1,091 | -26.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 189.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEM | 189.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.0% | 23.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 28.6% | 41.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NEM Return | 7% | -21% | -9% | -8% | 173% | 16% | 127% |
| Peers Return | 33% | -2% | 23% | 19% | 90% | 33% | 383% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NEM Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 92% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 47% | 58% | 45% | 72% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NEM Max Drawdown | -9% | -37% | -26% | -28% | 0% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -32% | -14% | -16% | -13% | 0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GOLD, AEM, FCX, SCCO, KGC. See NEM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NEM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 692 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 469 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 161.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 561 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to GOLD, AEM, FCX, SCCO, KGC
In The Past
Newmont's stock fell -60.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -60.3% loss requires a 151.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Newmont (NEM)
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- ExxonMobil for gold mining
- Chevron for gold mining
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Newmont (NEM) Major Products
- Gold: Newmont's primary product, this precious metal is mined globally and sold for investment, jewelry, and industrial applications.
- Copper: A significant byproduct from many of its mines, copper is an industrial metal essential for electrical wiring, construction, and various technologies.
- Silver: Often produced as a byproduct alongside gold and copper, silver is a precious metal used in jewelry, electronics, and industrial photography.
- Zinc: A base metal byproduct, zinc is primarily used for galvanizing steel to prevent rust and in other industrial applications.
- Lead: Also produced as a byproduct, lead is a heavy metal primarily used in batteries and various industrial manufacturing processes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Newmont (NEM) primarily sells its gold production to **other companies**. Newmont does not publicly disclose the specific names of its major customers, which is a common practice for commodity producers due to competitive reasons and the fungible nature of their products. However, based on their annual filings, Newmont indicates that it sells its gold to a limited number of precious metals refiners and traders. In 2023, approximately 60% of its gold sales were to four such customers. Therefore, the major categories of customers for Newmont are: * **Precious Metals Refiners:** These companies process raw gold doré (unrefined gold bars) and concentrates into investment-grade bullion bars, coins, and other gold products for industrial or financial use. Most major refiners (e.g., Valcambi, PAMP, Metalor, Rand Refinery, Heraeus) are privately owned. * **Precious Metals Traders and Dealers:** These companies purchase gold for onward sale to various clients, including financial institutions, industrial users, jewelers, and individual investors. While some large banks (e.g., JPMorgan Chase, HSBC) operate significant precious metals trading desks, they source from various suppliers, and specific direct sales relationships from miners are typically not disclosed. There are no prominent publicly traded pure-play precious metals trading firms that are consistently named as direct major customers of miners.AI Analysis | Feedback
- Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
- Komatsu Ltd. (KMTUY)
- Orica Limited (ORI.AX)
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Tom Palmer, Chief Executive Officer
Tom Palmer joined Newmont in 2014 and was appointed Chief Executive Officer in October 2019, becoming only the 10th CEO in Newmont's history. He has led the company through a period of strategic transformation, including the acquisition of Goldcorp in 2019, the establishment of the Nevada Gold Mines Joint Venture, and the landmark acquisition of Newcrest in November 2023. Prior to joining Newmont, he spent over 20 years with Rio Tinto, where he served as Chief Operating Officer for Pilbara Iron Ore Mines. He is scheduled to retire at the end of 2025.
Peter Wexler, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Interim Chief Financial Officer
Peter Wexler joined Newmont in March 2024 and was appointed interim Chief Financial Officer, effective July 11, 2025. He also continues to serve as Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer. Peter is a seasoned legal and risk management leader with more than three decades of international experience, including managing legal, risk, compliance, M&A, antitrust, litigation, and corporate governance affairs. Before joining Newmont, he served for 15 years as Chief Legal Officer at Schneider Electric, a Global 500 business.
Natascha Viljoen, President and Chief Operating Officer
Natascha Viljoen joined Newmont in 2023 as Chief Operating Officer, overseeing the company's operations with a focus on integration of acquired assets, portfolio optimization, and talent development. She brings more than three decades of global leadership experience across multiple commodities and continents. Natascha Viljoen is set to become Newmont's next Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2026, and will be the first woman to lead the company in its more than 100-year history.
Jennifer Cmil, Executive Vice President and Chief People Officer
Jennifer Cmil was appointed Executive Vice President, Human Resources in October 2019, having joined Newmont in 2010. She previously held roles as Senior Vice President, Human Resources, Group Executive, Human Resources, and Senior Director, Human Resources at Newmont. Before her tenure at Newmont, Ms. Cmil held leadership positions in human resources across various industries, including Vice President of Human Resources at Level 3 Telecommunications, Senior Human Resources Director at KB Home, and Human Resources Business Partner at Sun Microsystems, where she began her career in 1994.
Francois Hardy, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
Francois Hardy was promoted to Chief Technology Officer in May 2024. He previously served as Senior Vice President, Exploration since February 2022 and as Regional Senior Vice President, Africa since 2019. His experience at Newmont also includes serving as Regional Project Director for Newmont Australia and as the General Manager of the Tanami gold mine, where he led a team responsible for improving the operation into a Tier 1 asset.
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Newmont Corporation (NEM) faces several significant risks to its business, primarily stemming from its reliance on commodity markets, the complexities of global mining operations, and the evolving regulatory landscape.The most significant risk to Newmont's business is Commodity Market Volatility. As the world's leading gold producer, Newmont's revenue and profitability are directly and substantially impacted by fluctuations in the market price of gold and other metals. The company's financial performance, including its ability to generate cash flow, is highly sensitive to these price movements. A significant decline in gold prices could adversely affect revenue, net income, operating cash flow, and potentially lead to the deferral or halt of new projects and reduced funds for exploration.
Secondly, Operational Challenges and Costs pose a substantial risk. Newmont faces rising production costs, as evidenced by increases in costs applicable to sales. These challenges can erode the company's competitive advantage and profitability if not managed effectively. Furthermore, the inability to continually replace gold reserves depleted by production is a conspicuous risk that could impact long-term production levels. Operational risks also include site-specific issues such as critical equipment failures, water supply limitations, potential impacts from extreme weather events, and safety incidents, which can lead to stock dips and reputational damage.
Finally, Regulatory, Legal, and Geopolitical Risks represent another key area of concern. Newmont's extensive global presence exposes it to a complex web of regulatory environments, leading to potential legal challenges, compliance costs, and disputes (e.g., with tax authorities). Geopolitical risks and broader macroeconomic pressures, such as inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor market uncertainties, can adversely affect Newmont's operational efficiency and cost structure. Additionally, the company faces potential legal risks related to environmental regulations, including those concerning greenhouse gas emissions and water management, and could incur increased costs due to carbon taxes or litigation.
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Newmont (NEM) operates in the mining industry, with its main products being gold, copper, and silver. The addressable markets for these products are global.
- Gold: The global gold market size was valued at approximately USD 291.68 billion in 2024.
- Copper: The global copper market size was estimated at approximately USD 241.88 billion in 2024.
- Silver: The global silver market size was valued at approximately USD 87.12 billion in 2024.
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Newmont (NEM) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Sustained Higher Gold Prices: Analysts anticipate that rising average gold prices will continue to be a significant catalyst for Newmont's revenue growth. Projections indicate gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, benefiting Newmont as the world's largest gold producer.
- Strategic Operational Expansions and Project Development: Newmont's strategic expansion initiatives, including the integration of Newcrest Mining acquired in 2023, have broadened its production capacity and improved its overall portfolio and operational scale. The company is also advancing high-return projects like Ahafo North in Ghana, which is expected to commence gold production in the fourth quarter of 2025 and contribute an additional 150,000 to 200,000 ounces of gold per year for the initial five years (2028-2032).
- Increased Production from Key Mines: Newmont is forecasting an increase in its overall gold production, with analysts projecting an average of approximately 6 million ounces per annum by 2028, up from 5.6 million ounces in 2025. Specific production gains are anticipated from higher gold grades at the Peñasquito mine in 2025, projected to increase gold production by 30%, and ongoing investment in stripping at the Boddington mine.
- Portfolio Optimization and Divestment of Non-Core Assets: Newmont has been actively divesting non-core and higher-cost assets, such as six smaller mines following the Newcrest acquisition, shares in Orla Mining, the Coffee Project, Akyem, and Porcupine operations. This strategy aims to streamline operations, enhance the balance sheet, improve operational efficiency, and allow the company to concentrate on higher-margin, Tier 1 assets, thereby boosting overall profitability and cash flow.
- Cost Optimization and Operational Efficiency Improvements: The company has implemented various cost optimization measures, including restructuring into two business units to decentralize decision-making. These efforts, coupled with technological advancements, are expected to drive positive financial performance and enhance operational efficiency. Newmont's management reduced guidance for 2025 General & Administrative (G&A), exploration, and advanced projects by approximately 15% through these restructuring and productivity initiatives.
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Share Repurchases
- In January 2021, Newmont's Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program of up to $1.0 billion.
- An additional $3.0 billion share repurchase program was approved in July 2025, increasing the total authorized amount to $6.0 billion.
- As of October 23, 2025, Newmont had executed and settled approximately $3.3 billion in common stock repurchases, with $2.7 billion remaining under the authorized programs.
Share Issuance
- Information regarding significant share issuances by Newmont was not available in the provided sources. Macrotrends data indicates net common equity issued/repurchased for 2022-2025 showing net repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- Newmont acquired Newcrest Mining Ltd. for approximately $19.1 billion in May 2023, a transaction that was finalized in November 2023, expanding Newmont's global scope and solidifying its position as the world's largest gold miner.
- The company engaged in a comprehensive divestiture program between 2024 and 2025, selling six non-core operations and two projects, generating over $3.5 billion in net cash proceeds in 2025.
- These strategic divestitures, including the monetization of equity holdings in Greatland Resources and Discovery Silver Corp for approximately $470 million, aimed to refocus the portfolio on high-margin, long-life Tier 1 assets.
Capital Expenditures
- Newmont's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024 averaged $2.041 billion, with a peak of $3.284 billion in December 2024.
- For 2025, Newmont initially planned to invest approximately $1.8 billion in sustaining capital and $1.3 billion in development capital, totaling $3.1 billion, though forecasts improved with a $200 million reduction in capital expenditure due to optimized timing and reduced needs.
- Primary focuses for capital expenditures include extending mine life at existing operations, advancing key projects like Ahafo North and Cadia Panel Caves, tailings management (e.g., $300 million for Cadia in 2025), water and infrastructure projects, and equipment reliability.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is Newmont Stock A Trap Or A Missed Opportunity? | 03/07/2026 | |
| Why Newmont Stock Jumped 180%? | 02/24/2026 | |
| Newmont Stock May Have More Upside | 02/03/2026 | |
| NEM Stock Surges 11% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Scotiabank's $152 Target | 01/29/2026 | |
| What Is Happening With Newmont Stock? | 01/17/2026 | |
| How Newmont Stock Gained 170% | 01/01/2026 | |
| Newmont Earnings Notes | 12/26/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: WDAY, BBY, TGT | Losers: SNDK, MU, NEM | 03/03/2026 | |
| Newmont Stock Beats in Q4 — What’s Next? | 02/25/2026 | |
| How Newmont Stock Gained 180% | 02/24/2026 | |
| Has Newmont Stock Quietly Become a Value Opportunity? | 02/13/2026 | |
| Newmont Stock’s Winning Streak May Not Be Over Yet | 02/03/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to NEM.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01312026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 01302026 | B | Barrick Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.7% | 11.7% | -4.0% |
| 12312025 | AMR | Alpha Metallurgical Resources | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -18.6% | -18.6% | -18.6% |
| 12262025 | EMN | Eastman Chemical | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.9% | 18.9% | 0.0% |
| 12122025 | AMCR | Amcor | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 19.2% | 19.2% | -0.5% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 56.4% | 56.4% | -5.7% |
| 01312024 | NEM | Newmont | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 44.2% | 28.0% | -13.5% |
| 02282023 | NEM | Newmont | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.6% | -28.7% | -28.8% |
| 08312022 | NEM | Newmont | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.3% | -0.4% | -7.4% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 87.83 |
| Mkt Cap | 98.0 |
| Rev LTM | 14,549 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,404 |
| FCF LTM | 2,997 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,795 |
| CFO LTM | 5,181 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,354 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 26.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 40.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 47.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 29.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 40.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 98.0 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| P/EBIT | 14.5 |
| P/E | 30.4 |
| P/CFO | 13.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 31.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 50.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 118.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 190.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 33.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 50.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 101.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 107.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) | 2,485 | 2,271 | 2,098 | ||
| Peñasquito | 2,322 | 901 | 2,189 | ||
| Ahafo South | 1,923 | ||||
| Cadia | 1,861 | 422 | |||
| Boddington | 1,746 | 1,814 | 1,763 | ||
| Lihir | 1,473 | 266 | |||
| Tanami | 988 | 867 | 878 | ||
| Yanacocha | 841 | 537 | 451 | ||
| Porcupine | 673 | 503 | 504 | ||
| Merian | 660 | 625 | 723 | ||
| Brucejack | 610 | 72 | |||
| Éléonore | 583 | 453 | 391 | ||
| Cerro Negro | 566 | 510 | 508 | ||
| Musselwhite | 516 | 351 | 305 | ||
| Akyem | 495 | 574 | 749 | ||
| Cripple Creek & Victor Gold Mining Company LLC (CC&V) | 347 | 332 | 333 | ||
| Red Chris | 325 | 32 | |||
| Telfer | 268 | 152 | |||
| Ahafo North | 0 | ||||
| Corporate and Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Ahafo | 1,130 | 1,023 | |||
| Gold Sales from Doré Production | 8,490 | 8,534 | |||
| Sales from Concentrate and Other Production | 3,732 | 2,963 | |||
| Total | 18,682 | 11,812 | 11,915 | 12,222 | 11,497 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate and Other | 9,717 | 9,844 | 8,369 | ||
| Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) | 7,430 | 7,401 | 7,419 | ||
| Cadia | 6,208 | 6,351 | |||
| Lihir | 5,625 | 3,909 | |||
| Peñasquito | 4,879 | 4,738 | 6,430 | ||
| Ahafo South | 2,674 | ||||
| Brucejack | 2,660 | 4,006 | |||
| Red Chris | 2,580 | 2,178 | |||
| Boddington | 2,420 | 2,376 | 2,264 | ||
| Tanami | 2,236 | 1,896 | 1,585 | ||
| Yanacocha | 1,932 | 2,117 | 2,225 | ||
| Cerro Negro | 1,787 | 1,646 | 1,659 | ||
| Porcupine | 1,172 | 1,473 | 1,401 | ||
| Musselwhite | 1,102 | 1,018 | 1,294 | ||
| Merian | 943 | 927 | 923 | ||
| Éléonore | 855 | 777 | 1,010 | ||
| Akyem | 817 | 1,069 | 998 | ||
| Ahafo North | 751 | ||||
| Cripple Creek & Victor Gold Mining Company LLC (CC&V) | 561 | 383 | 286 | ||
| Telfer | 0 | 574 | |||
| Ahafo | 2,823 | 2,619 | |||
| Total | 56,349 | 55,506 | 38,482 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $116.29 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 126.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/06/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -11.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $116.59 | $84.72 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -0.3% | 37.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 53.1% | 45.0% |
| Downside Capture | 114.41 | 24.53 |
| Upside Capture | 299.18 | 121.00 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 33.0% | 22.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.16 | 1.39 | 1.30 | 1.12 | 0.50 | 0.58 |
| Up Beta | 1.81 | 0.88 | 1.13 | 1.04 | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| Down Beta | 2.10 | 0.45 | 0.67 | 0.38 | 0.32 | 0.55 |
| Up Capture | 254% | 365% | 328% | 283% | 142% | 52% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 27 | 38 | 76 | 152 | 408 |
| Down Capture | 209% | 81% | 54% | 86% | 15% | 70% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 14 | 23 | 48 | 99 | 341 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEM | 169.7% | 44.9% | 2.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 15.0% | 20.7% | 0.57 | 42.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.4% | 19.2% | 0.66 | 22.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 77.1% | 26.1% | 2.17 | 74.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.6% | 17.1% | 0.89 | 34.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 16.6% | 0.01 | 18.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.4% | 45.5% | -0.39 | 22.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEM | 20.1% | 36.6% | 0.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 7.8% | 18.9% | 0.31 | 40.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 17.0% | 0.60 | 23.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 17.2% | 1.14 | 66.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.9% | 19.0% | 0.51 | 29.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 29.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.5% | 56.8% | 0.35 | 13.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEM | 19.3% | 35.7% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 11.2% | 20.6% | 0.49 | 33.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 20.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.1% | 15.6% | 0.80 | 66.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 17.6% | 0.43 | 25.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.1% | 20.7% | 0.26 | 24.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.7% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 12.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/19/2026 | -2.6% | 1.9% | |
| 10/23/2025 | -6.2% | -7.4% | -6.1% |
| 7/24/2025 | 6.9% | 1.0% | 15.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -5.7% | -12.4% | -0.9% |
| 10/23/2024 | -14.7% | -18.7% | -25.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | -4.2% | 2.9% | 7.8% |
| 2/22/2024 | -7.6% | -10.6% | 4.1% |
| 10/26/2023 | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 14 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 1.9% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -7.4% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 6.9% | 11.0% | 15.4% |
| Max Negative | -14.7% | -18.7% | -25.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/22/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brook, Bruce R | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 92.36 | 2,080 | 192,109 | 3,021,003 | Form | |
| 2 | Brook, Bruce R | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 80.96 | 2,080 | 168,397 | 2,816,517 | Form | |
| 3 | Palmer, Thomas Ronald | CEO | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 81.34 | 5,000 | 406,700 | 22,768,937 | Form |
| 4 | Brook, Bruce R | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 84.99 | 2,080 | 176,779 | 3,133,496 | Form | |
| 5 | Brook, Bruce R | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 74.59 | 2,077 | 154,923 | 2,905,206 | Form |
NEM Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis yields a highly attractive probability-adjusted skew of 2.78x. The primary driver is the 'Rising Tide' bull thesis (Regime B), where a strong secular tailwind for gold and copper provides a robust backdrop that can offset a merely 'Contested' moat. The upside case offers significant return, while the downside is cushioned by the market's tendency to apply a premium multiple at a cyclical trough, creating a favorable asymmetric risk/reward profile.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityNewmont's revenue and profitability are directly dictated by the global spot market prices for gold and copper. The business is a price-taker, making its financial performance inherently tied to the supply and demand cycles of these commodities.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is the significant, durable spread between historically high realized gold prices (driven by geopolitical risk and strong central bank buying) and Newmont's All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC). This dynamic is generating record free cash flow, enabling aggressive debt reduction and share buybacks. The company's large, geographically diverse portfolio of long-life, Tier 1 assets provides a stable production base to capitalize on these elevated prices.
- Generated a record $1.6 billion in free cash flow in Q3 2025, the fourth consecutive quarter above $1 billion.
- Spot Gold prices are near historic highs (~$5,000-$5,400/oz) with a bullish market balance outlook.
- Strong gold demand is driven by secular trends including central bank buying (~800 tonnes expected in 2026) and investor demand for safe-haven assets.
- The project pipeline, including Ahafo North and Tanami Expansion 2, provides a clear pathway to sustain production levels.
PRIMARY RISK
The single largest risk is a sharp downturn in the price of gold, which would rapidly compress margins and invalidate the core long thesis. This could be triggered by a shift in central bank policy towards a 'higher for longer' interest rate stance, leading to rising real yields and a stronger US dollar, both of which are significant structural headwinds for gold prices.
- The primary bear case is explicitly identified as a 'Commodity Price Crash'.
- The Federal Reserve held rates steady in January 2026, noting that inflation remains 'somewhat elevated', tempering expectations for imminent rate cuts.
- Internal guidance for 2026 suggests production will be at the lower end of the 2025 range, making the company more vulnerable to price declines.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Realized Gold Price per Ounce | Sustained > $4,500/oz | This is the primary driver of revenue and margin expansion. A drop below this level would begin to pressure the high free cash flow generation that underpins the bull thesis. |
| All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) | < $1,550/oz | Demonstrates management's ability to control costs amidst inflationary pressures. A failure to keep costs in check would signal margin compression even if gold prices remain high. |
| Quarterly Attributable Gold Production | > 1.4 million ounces | The market is heavily focused on declining volumes. Meeting or exceeding recent production levels would alleviate a key investor concern and demonstrate that new projects are successfully offsetting declines elsewhere. |
Price-Led Free Cash Flow vs. Operational Decay
BULL VIEW
Record free cash flow, fueled by high gold prices, will fund significant shareholder returns (buybacks, dividends) and debt reduction, making operational concerns secondary.
CORE TENSION
Can record gold prices and resulting free cash flow mask deteriorating operational metrics like declining production and rising costs, or will these fundamentals ultimately drive the stock lower?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The stock's negative reaction to the Q3 2025 earnings and revenue beat, where investors focused on declining production volumes, shows the Bearish operational narrative is currently winning.
BEAR VIEW
Decelerating production volumes and rising All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) indicate a fragile, price-dependent operation. The stock is vulnerable to a commodity price correction or further operational slips.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Feb. 19, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & 2026 Guidance Watch: 2026 All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) guidance versus consensus of ~$1,500/oz. Also, 2026 production guidance vs. 2025 levels. |
Ongoing (Fed Meetings, CPI) | Gold Price Reaction to Macro Data Watch: CPI data and Fed commentary on interest rates. Hotter CPI or hawkish Fed rhetoric would strengthen the dollar and raise real yields. |
Anytime | Operational Disruption at Peñasquito Mine Watch: Mexican news reports or union statements indicating renewed labor disputes over profit-sharing or water access. |
Q1-Q2 2026 | Growth Project Update (e.g., Yanacocha Sulfides) Watch: Company updates on project timelines and capital expenditure budgets for key growth assets. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-07-25 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: The company reported its second-quarter results. The negative stock reaction suggests that guidance or underlying metrics may have disappointed investors despite high gold prices. | Fell notably by -3.2% $65.34 -> $63.26 |
2025-08-05 | Strong Central Bank Gold Purchases Reported Details: The World Gold Council report for July likely showed continued strong demand from central banks, reinforcing a key pillar of the bull case for gold prices. | Rose significantly by 2.8% $65.01 -> $66.82 |
2025-09-19 | Ahafo North Mine Commissioning Details: Company announced its new Ahafo North mine in Ghana is online, a key growth project expected to add 275,000-325,000 ounces of annual production, signaling future volume growth. | Rose significantly by 4.3% $78.09 -> $81.48 |
2025-10-23 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Despite beating revenue and EPS estimates, the stock fell sharply. Investors focused on a 4% sequential decline in gold production and concerns over future output. | Plummeted -6.2% $88.65 -> $83.12 |
2025-12-09 | Capital Allocation Update Details: Following strong free cash flow generation, the company likely provided an update on its debt reduction and share repurchase programs, boosting investor confidence. | Surged +5.7% $89.00 -> $94.09 |
2026-01-28 | Stock Hits Multi-Month High Details: Shares reached their highest point in the trailing six-month period, driven by continued strength in gold prices and bullish sentiment in the commodities sector. | Rose significantly by 3.9% $127.00 -> $131.95 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (4.1x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, contested moat, and Low visibility mandate a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
AEM
INDUSTRYAgnico Eagle has a superior cost structure, with Q3 2025 AISC of $1,373/oz significantly below Newmont's $1,566/oz, providing better margin resilience.
BTG
INDUSTRYUnlike Newmont's decelerating production, B2Gold is in a growth phase with its Goose Mine ramping up, offering clearer near-term production growth visibility.
Trading at a Trailing P/E of 19.7x and a Forward P/E of 35.7x, Newmont is being repriced from a simple gold producer into a more complex story balancing record free cash flow and shareholder returns against a guided production dip and rising costs for FY2026.
Filter all news through the lens of capital discipline and operational execution during a period of peak gold prices and guided cost inflation.
Sustained gold price above $4,000/oz; any upward revision to 2026 production guidance or downward revision to AISC guidance; announcements of further share repurchases; positive progress reports on key development projects (Tanami Expansion 2, Cadia Panel Caves).
Sustained drop in gold prices below $3,500/oz; operational issues at key mines (Cadia, Boddington, Peñasquito); any downward revision of long-term production growth post-2027; geopolitical instability in key jurisdictions (Ghana, Peru, Argentina).
Quarterly fluctuations in production from non-core assets; minor swings in copper or silver prices (gold is the primary driver); analyst price target changes not linked to fundamental changes in production or cost guidance.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is focused on the tension between record shareholder returns and a weaker near-term outlook. The catalyst is the new capital allocation framework, which returned $3.4 billion to shareholders in FY2025, and the company's ability to maintain these returns despite a guided ~10% drop in gold production to ~5.3M oz and a ~24% increase in by-product AISC to ~$1,680/oz for FY2026. [11, 12, 20]
Gold Mining
$24.9B TTM (89% of Total) · 72% MarginWhat It Is
Gold doré and concentrate from a portfolio of mines including Boddington, Cadia, Peñasquito, Tanami, and the Nevada Gold Mines JV.
Who Pays & How
Global commodity traders, central banks, and refiners purchase gold for use in jewelry, investment (bullion), and industrial applications. Purchases are driven by global macroeconomic factors and supply/demand, not by specific customer relationships or switching costs.
Competition
Copper & Other Metals
$3.1B TTM (11% of Total) · 68% MarginWhat It Is
Copper, Silver, Lead, and Zinc, primarily from the Boddington, Cadia, and Peñasquito mines.
Who Pays & How
Global commodity traders and industrial consumers purchase base metals for use in construction, electronics, and manufacturing. Payment is based on global market prices.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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