Navan (NAVN)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $15.15 | Market Cap: $746.3 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Navan (NAVN)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $15.15Market Cap: $746.3 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. | Key risksNAVN key risks include [1] a persistent lack of profitability and [2] intense competition from both established travel providers and newer fintech entrants. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Key risksNAVN key risks include [1] a persistent lack of profitability and [2] intense competition from both established travel providers and newer fintech entrants. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NAVN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the stock movement for Navan (NAVN) from August 31, 2025, to December 21, 2025:
1. Initial Public Offering (IPO) with Lukewarm Reception: Navan debuted on the Nasdaq on October 30, 2025, with an IPO price of $25 per share. However, its shares closed down 20% at $20 on the first day of trading, reflecting a lack of strong investor demand despite raising $923.1 million.
2. Wider-than-Expected Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Net Loss: On December 15, 2025, Navan announced its Q3 FY2026 earnings, reporting a significant GAAP net loss of $225 million, which was more than five times its loss from the same period in the prior year. This widening loss, despite a 29% year-over-year revenue increase to $195 million, caused the stock to tumble by 16.8% the day after the announcement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NAVN Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -44% | 28% | 27% | -4% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NAVN Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 43% | 40% | 57% | 60% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NAVN Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -55% | -22% | -24% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GBTG, EXPE, BKNG, EXFY, WDAY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
NAVN has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,183 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NAVN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Navan
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 116.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 35.8 |
| Rev LTM | 9,231 |
| Op Inc LTM | 868 |
| FCF LTM | 2,585 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,090 |
| CFO LTM | 2,773 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,322 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 35.8 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | 20.8 |
| P/E | 34.6 |
| P/CFO | 15.5 |
| Total Yield | 1.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 28.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -27.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.5% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/15/2025 | -11.9% | ||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -11.9% | ||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -11.9% | ||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12152025 | 10-Q 10/31/2025 |
| 1312025 | 10312025 | 424B4 1/31/2025 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |