Microsoft (MSFT)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $485.12 | Market Cap: $3.6 TrilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Microsoft (MSFT)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $485.12Market Cap: $3.6 TrilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13% | Key risksMSFT key risks include [1] sophisticated cyberattacks targeting its vast software and cloud ecosystem, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, CFO LTM is 147 Bil, FCF LTM is 78 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, Digital Content & Streaming, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, CFO LTM is 147 Bil, FCF LTM is 78 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, Digital Content & Streaming, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13% |
| Key risksMSFT key risks include [1] sophisticated cyberattacks targeting its vast software and cloud ecosystem, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Following a period of robust growth and strong earnings reports earlier in 2025, Microsoft (MSFT) stock experienced a -4.1% movement between August 31, 2025, and December 23, 2025, influenced by several key factors.1. High valuation and concerns about sustained upside. After substantial gains throughout 2025, driven by strong fiscal Q3 and Q4 results and optimism around AI, analysts began to note that the stock's upside potential was becoming less compelling due to its elevated valuation. This sentiment could have led to profit-taking and a cooling of investor enthusiasm.
2. Increased competition in the AI infrastructure market. Reports by late October 2025 indicated a slowdown in Microsoft's stock performance, partly attributed to increased competition in the AI infrastructure sector, with other companies like Oracle reportedly gaining ground. This competitive pressure likely fueled investor concerns about Microsoft's long-term dominance in this crucial growth area.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.6% change in MSFT stock from 9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a -8.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9222025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 513.49 | 484.92 | -5.56% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 281724.00 | 293812.00 | 4.29% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 36.15% | 35.71% | -1.21% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.47 | 34.36 | -8.30% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7430.00 | 7433.00 | -0.04% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.56% |
Market Drivers
9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | -5.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.7% | 52.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 2.7% | 56.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.1% change in MSFT stock from 6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 8.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 6232025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 484.30 | 484.92 | 0.13% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 270010.00 | 293812.00 | 8.82% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 35.79% | 35.71% | -0.23% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.26 | 34.36 | -7.78% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7434.00 | 7433.00 | 0.01% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.13% |
Market Drivers
6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 0.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.4% | 49.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 19.7% | 52.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.9% change in MSFT stock from 12/22/2024 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 15.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12222024 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 433.40 | 484.92 | 11.89% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 254190.00 | 293812.00 | 15.59% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 35.61% | 35.71% | 0.28% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.59 | 34.36 | -3.47% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7433.00 | 7433.00 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.89% |
Market Drivers
12/22/2024 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 11.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.9% | 70.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 23.8% | 73.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 108.0% change in MSFT stock from 12/23/2022 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 44.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12232022 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 233.16 | 484.92 | 107.98% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 203075.00 | 293812.00 | 44.68% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 34.37% | 35.71% | 3.90% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.91 | 34.36 | 37.91% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7457.00 | 7433.00 | 0.32% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 107.98% |
Market Drivers
12/23/2023 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 31.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 47.7% | 71.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 52.9% | 74.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSFT Return | 43% | 52% | -28% | 58% | 13% | 16% | 225% |
| Peers Return | 50% | 31% | -34% | 64% | 40% | 14% | 240% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 113% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSFT Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 25% | 67% | 58% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 63% | 28% | 67% | 65% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSFT Max Drawdown | -14% | -5% | -36% | -7% | -2% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -7% | -40% | -1% | -9% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, ORCL, CRM. See MSFT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/22/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSFT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 224 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 144.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,703 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, GEN, S
In The Past
Microsoft's stock fell -37.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -37.6% loss requires a 60.1% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe Microsoft (MSFT):
- Amazon for cloud computing and business solutions.
- Google for operating systems and office productivity software.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Windows: An operating system family for personal computers, servers, and embedded devices.
- Microsoft 365 (Service: Productivity Suite SaaS): A subscription service providing productivity applications like Word, Excel, and Teams, alongside cloud storage and communication tools.
- Azure (Service: Cloud Computing Platform): Microsoft's comprehensive cloud computing platform offering infrastructure, platform, and software services for building, deploying, and managing applications.
- Xbox (Product & Service: Gaming Ecosystem): A gaming brand that includes consoles, games, and subscription services like Game Pass for a complete gaming experience.
- Surface (Product: Hardware): A series of premium personal computers, tablets, and interactive whiteboards designed and manufactured by Microsoft.
- Dynamics 365 (Service: Business Applications SaaS): A suite of cloud-based enterprise resource planning (ERP) and customer relationship management (CRM) applications for businesses.
- LinkedIn (Service: Professional Networking): A social networking service primarily focused on professional networking and career development.
- Visual Studio (Product: Developer IDE): An integrated development environment used to create computer programs, websites, and mobile applications.
- GitHub (Service: Software Development Platform): A web-based platform for version control and collaborative software development using Git and hosting source code.
- Bing (Service: Search Engine): Microsoft's web search engine providing search results for web pages, images, videos, and news.
- Microsoft Advertising (Service: Digital Advertising Platform): A platform enabling advertisers to reach audiences across Microsoft's network of search engines, websites, and apps.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Microsoft (MSFT) primarily sells its products and services to other companies and organizations, rather than directly to individuals as its main revenue driver. Its business model is largely B2B (business-to-business).
Due to its extremely broad and diversified customer base across virtually all industries globally, Microsoft does not disclose specific individual "major customers" in its financial reports. No single customer or small group of customers accounts for a material percentage of its overall revenue, which is typical for companies selling foundational software and cloud services widely adopted across markets.
Instead of naming specific major companies, Microsoft's major customer segments within the business and organizational sphere include:
- Enterprises and Small/Medium Businesses (SMBs): This vast segment encompasses companies of all sizes across every industry worldwide. They are major consumers of Microsoft's cloud services (e.g., Azure, Office 365, Dynamics 365), enterprise software, productivity suites, and security solutions.
- Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs): These are companies that manufacture personal computers, servers, and other devices, which then pre-install Microsoft's operating systems (like Windows) and other software. Key public company examples of OEMs that are major customers for Microsoft's licensing include:
- Dell Technologies (Symbol: DELL)
- HP Inc. (Symbol: HPQ)
- Government and Educational Institutions: Public sector entities, including national and local government agencies, as well as educational organizations from K-12 schools to universities, are significant customers for Microsoft's software licenses, cloud services, and hardware solutions.
- Other Technology Companies and Developers: Many software vendors, startups, and individual developers use Microsoft Azure as their foundational cloud infrastructure to build and host their own applications, and leverage developer tools such as Visual Studio and GitHub.
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Satya Nadella, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Satya Nadella joined Microsoft in 1992 and was appointed CEO in 2014, later becoming Chairman in 2021. He previously held various leadership roles including Executive Vice President of Microsoft's Cloud and Enterprise group, and Senior Vice-President of Research and Development for the Online Services Division. Prior to his tenure at Microsoft, Nadella worked at Sun Microsystems. Under his leadership, Microsoft has shifted its focus to cloud computing and artificial intelligence. He has overseen key strategic acquisitions such as Mojang (Minecraft), Xamarin, LinkedIn for $26.2 billion, and GitHub for $7.5 billion.
Amy Hood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Amy Hood joined Microsoft in 2002 and became the company's first female Chief Financial Officer in 2013. Before joining Microsoft, she worked at Goldman Sachs in various roles within investment banking and capital markets groups. As CFO, she has been instrumental in Microsoft's financial strategy, overseeing more than 57 deals, including the $7.5 billion acquisition of GitHub in 2018. Hood is credited with strategically reallocating funds from legacy divisions towards the growing cloud computing business.
Brad Smith, Vice Chair and President
Brad Smith joined Microsoft in 1993 and has served as President since 2015 and Vice Chair since 2021. Previously, he was Microsoft's General Counsel from 2002 to 2015, during which he led efforts to resolve antitrust controversies globally. He is responsible for public-facing initiatives on critical issues at the intersection of technology and society, including artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, privacy, environmental sustainability, and human rights. He leads a global team of approximately 2,000 legal, corporate affairs, and business professionals.
Judson Althoff, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Judson Althoff leads Microsoft's global commercial business, overseeing enterprise sales, partner ecosystem strategies, and solution delivery across all industry verticals. He is responsible for aligning the company's field organization with customer transformation journeys, particularly in cloud, AI, and security. Althoff has been instrumental in expanding Microsoft's customer success programs and strengthening strategic partnerships with major companies.
Scott Guthrie, Executive Vice President, Cloud + AI Group
Scott Guthrie leads Microsoft's Cloud + AI division, which includes key offerings like Azure, developer tools, AI infrastructure, and services such as GitHub and Visual Studio. He is recognized as one of the architects behind Microsoft Azure and has played a central role in Microsoft's growth as a cloud leader. Guthrie currently spearheads the company's comprehensive AI platform strategy.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Microsoft (symbol: MSFT) faces several key risks to its business, primarily driven by the dynamic and fiercely competitive technology landscape.
- Cybersecurity Threats: Microsoft's extensive ecosystem, particularly Microsoft 365 and its cloud services, makes it a prime target for increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks. The company faces significant risks from phishing attacks, malware, ransomware, privilege escalation, and insider threats, which can lead to data loss, operational disruptions, and reputational damage. The rise of AI is further amplifying these risks by making cyberattacks more advanced and accessible.
- Intense Competition in Cloud Computing and AI: Microsoft operates in a highly competitive environment, particularly in cloud computing (Azure) and artificial intelligence (AI) research and development. Key rivals include Amazon (AWS), Google (Google Cloud Platform, AI research), Apple, and Meta. This intense competition necessitates continuous innovation and substantial investment, and failure to keep pace could lead to a loss of market share and impact its growth trajectory. There are also concerns about Microsoft's valuation being fueled by AI demand, implying a need for near-flawless execution in its AI and cloud growth.
- Regulatory and Anti-competitive Scrutiny: Microsoft is facing scrutiny and complaints regarding alleged anti-competitive behavior in the cloud services market. Accusations suggest the company uses its dominant position in operating systems and productivity software to compel the use of its Azure cloud services, potentially creating artificial barriers for competitors and limiting customer choice. Such complaints could lead to anti-trust investigations and regulatory interventions, which may impact Microsoft's business practices and financial performance.
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The rapid advancement and increasing capabilities of open-source large language models (LLMs), such as Llama, Mistral, and others, pose an emerging threat to Microsoft's AI strategy. Microsoft has invested heavily in proprietary AI models through its partnership with OpenAI and integrates these into its product suite via Azure OpenAI Service and Copilot. However, if open-source models continue to improve at their current pace and achieve comparable or sufficient performance for a wide range of enterprise applications, businesses may opt for these alternatives due to lower cost, greater flexibility, or the ability to run them on their own infrastructure. This could diminish the demand and pricing power for Microsoft's proprietary AI services and subscriptions, thereby eroding a key growth driver.
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Microsoft's main products and services operate within several large addressable markets globally. Here's an overview of the estimated market sizes for their key offerings:
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Microsoft Azure (Cloud Computing): The global cloud computing market size was valued at approximately USD 676.29 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 2,291.59 billion by 2032. Other estimates place the global cloud computing market size at around USD 752.44 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 2,390.18 billion by 2030. A different report indicates the global cloud computing market is worth about USD 912.77 billion in 2025 and could reach USD 5.15 trillion by 2034.
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Microsoft Office 365 (Productivity Software): The global productivity management software market size was estimated at USD 59.88 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 149.74 billion by 2030. Another assessment shows the global productivity management software market was valued at USD 71.22 billion in 2024 and is expected to surpass USD 264.48 billion by 2034.
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Windows Operating System: The global operating systems market size was approximately USD 47.6 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 52.51 billion by 2029. In terms of market share for desktop operating systems worldwide, Windows held 66.25% from October 2024 to October 2025, and 71% for desktop computers and laptops as of August 2025.
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Xbox (Gaming): The global gaming market size was estimated at USD 298.09 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 505.17 billion by 2030. Another source estimates the global gaming market size was USD 241.1 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 535.29 billion by 2033. The market size is also reported as USD 269.06 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 435.44 billion by 2030.
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LinkedIn (Professional Network): The professional networking market size is estimated at USD 65.64 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 201.12 billion by 2030 globally. The global Professional Networking Apps Market size was USD 53.23 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 429.10 billion by 2032. An older estimate from 2015 projected LinkedIn's total addressable market at approximately USD 115 billion globally across talent, sales, learning & development, and marketing solutions.
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Dynamics 365 (ERP/CRM): The global Microsoft Dynamics market is projected to be valued at USD 13.71 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 42.21 billion by 2035. Another report indicates the global Microsoft Dynamics Services market size will be USD 7.12 billion in 2025. The Microsoft Dynamics market size is expected to grow from USD 11.37 billion in 2025 to USD 17.33 billion in 2029.
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Surface (Devices - Laptops and Tablets):
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Laptops: The global laptop market size was valued at USD 109.9 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 173.5 billion in 2032. Other estimates include a market size of USD 151.1 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 200.7 billion by 2033.
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Tablets: The global tablet market size reached USD 84.6 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 202.4 billion by 2033. Another source states the tablets market size has grown from USD 108.31 billion in 2024 to USD 114.66 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach USD 148.01 billion in 2029.
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Personal Computers (overall, including desktops and laptops): The global personal computers market size was estimated at USD 155.19 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 256.75 billion by 2030. The PC market is valued at USD 222.64 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 344.13 billion by 2030.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Microsoft (MSFT) over the next 2-3 years:Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Microsoft (MSFT)
- Accelerated Growth in Azure Cloud Services Driven by AI Integration: Microsoft's Azure cloud platform is consistently highlighted as a primary revenue engine, with strong double-digit growth expected. This growth is significantly fueled by the increasing demand for cloud-based AI services, enhanced by deep AI integration and Microsoft's strategic partnership with OpenAI. Azure's strengths in its vast availability zones and robust AI capabilities are positioning it as a leading platform for global AI developers.
- Broad Monetization of AI (Copilot) Across the Product Ecosystem: Microsoft is actively integrating its AI capabilities, particularly Copilot, into its expansive product portfolio, including Microsoft 365, Windows, GitHub, and even its advertising platform, Microsoft Monetize. This strategy aims to create new revenue streams through premium AI-powered features and to enhance the value of existing products, driving increased adoption and higher monetization per user. CEO Satya Nadella has stated his expectation for AI to be the fastest division to achieve a $10 billion revenue run rate.
- Expansion of Gaming Content and Services Following the Activision Blizzard Acquisition: The acquisition of Activision Blizzard King is a significant catalyst for Microsoft's gaming segment. While Xbox hardware sales may experience fluctuations, the focus is on expanding Game Pass, growing its subscriber base, and diversifying content and services, which are higher-margin offerings. This strategy aims to leverage a vast user base and powerful intellectual property for sustained long-term growth.
- Continued Strength and AI-Enhanced Offerings in Microsoft 365 Commercial and Dynamics 365: The productivity and business processes segment, encompassing Microsoft 365 Commercial and Dynamics 365, is expected to sustain its growth trajectory. AI integrations are further enhancing the appeal and functionality of these tools, driving commercial bookings and customer engagement. Efforts to encourage upselling, such as migration to Microsoft 365 E5, also contribute to revenue expansion.
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Share Repurchases
- In September 2024, Microsoft's board approved a new $60 billion share repurchase program, replacing a similar $60 billion program from 2021.
- Microsoft repurchased $17.254 billion in shares in fiscal year 2024.
- Share repurchases amounted to $22.245 billion in fiscal year 2023 and $32.696 billion in fiscal year 2022.
Share Issuance
- Microsoft's issuance of common stock has shown an increasing trend over the last five fiscal years, from 1.693 billion shares in fiscal year 2021 to 2.056 billion shares in fiscal year 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Microsoft completed its acquisition of Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion on October 13, 2023, significantly expanding its presence in the gaming industry.
- In 2022, Microsoft acquired Nuance Communications for $19.7 billion, enhancing its AI and speech recognition capabilities, particularly in healthcare.
- Microsoft made strategic investments in AI companies, including a $1.5 billion equity investment in UAE-based AI firm G42 in 2024 and the acquisition of Inflection AI in March 2024, to bolster its AI infrastructure and conversational AI capabilities.
Capital Expenditures
- Microsoft's capital expenditures have seen substantial growth, reaching $64.551 billion in fiscal year 2025.
- The company projects its capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to be as high as $93.7 billion, indicating continued significant investment.
- These investments are primarily focused on expanding cloud infrastructure, AI supercomputing capabilities, and global data centers to meet strong demand for AI and cloud services, with an emphasis on AI-native architecture and sustainability.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MSFT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 16.1% | 16.1% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.7% | 16.7% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.8% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| 03312025 | MSFT | Microsoft | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 37.6% | 29.9% | -5.5% |
| 12312022 | MSFT | Microsoft | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 42.7% | 58.2% | -7.3% |
| 06302022 | MSFT | Microsoft | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.7% | 33.9% | -16.4% |
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Peer Comparisons for Microsoft
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 267.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 3,017.1 |
| Rev LTM | 339,644 |
| Op Inc LTM | 100,134 |
| FCF LTM | 43,516 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 45,337 |
| CFO LTM | 114,851 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 104,268 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 31.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 35.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3,017.1 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| P/EBIT | 28.0 |
| P/E | 34.6 |
| P/CFO | 24.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 131.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 54.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Productivity and Business Processes | 106,820 | 69,274 | 63,364 | 53,915 | 46,398 |
| Intelligent Cloud | 87,464 | 87,907 | 74,965 | 60,080 | 48,366 |
| More Personal Computing | 50,838 | 54,734 | 59,941 | 54,093 | 48,251 |
| Total | 245,122 | 211,915 | 198,270 | 168,088 | 143,015 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Productivity and Business Processes | 59,661 | 34,189 | 29,690 | 24,351 | 18,724 |
| Intelligent Cloud | 37,813 | 37,884 | 33,203 | 26,126 | 18,324 |
| More Personal Computing | 11,959 | 16,450 | 20,490 | 19,439 | 15,911 |
| Total | 109,433 | 88,523 | 83,383 | 69,916 | 52,959 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $484.92 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3,604.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/13/1986 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -10.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $499.31 | $473.13 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -2.9% | 2.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 19.0% | 24.4% |
| Downside Capture | 88.12 | 89.64 |
| Upside Capture | 48.77 | 86.88 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 51.6% | 70.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.79 | 0.86 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 1.04 |
| Up Beta | 0.89 | 0.68 | 0.50 | 0.71 | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| Down Beta | 1.55 | 1.13 | 1.11 | 1.05 | 0.79 | 0.98 |
| Up Capture | -2% | 46% | 60% | 65% | 89% | 123% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 20 | 34 | 68 | 133 | 404 |
| Down Capture | 104% | 103% | 108% | 88% | 93% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 28 | 57 | 115 | 346 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of MSFT With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 7.5% | 21.7% | 14.7% | 67.3% | 6.8% | -0.5% | -16.6% |
| Annualized Volatility | 24.5% | 27.8% | 19.7% | 19.3% | 15.2% | 17.6% | 35.4% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.24 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 2.54 | 0.23 | -0.18 | -0.25 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 74.0% | 71.1% | -3.7% | 21.4% | 29.4% | 33.4% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of MSFT With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 18.7% | 19.4% | 15.0% | 18.9% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 35.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 25.7% | 24.7% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.9% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.98 | 0.51 | 0.18 | 0.63 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 82.3% | 75.7% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 42.0% | 31.3% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of MSFT With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 26.0% | 22.4% | 14.9% | 14.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 69.9% |
| Annualized Volatility | 26.8% | 24.2% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.71 | 0.84 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 86.7% | 79.7% | 2.7% | 21.7% | 49.0% | 21.8% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -2.9% | -6.4% | -10.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | 3.9% | 2.3% | -0.5% |
| 4/30/2025 | 7.6% | 9.6% | 16.7% |
| 1/29/2025 | -6.2% | -6.6% | -10.1% |
| 10/30/2024 | -6.1% | -2.9% | -1.9% |
| 7/30/2024 | -1.1% | -5.5% | -2.7% |
| 4/25/2024 | 1.8% | -0.3% | 8.0% |
| 1/30/2024 | -2.7% | -0.8% | 1.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -4.2% | -2.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 10.9% | 16.7% |
| Max Negative | -7.7% | -9.0% | -10.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1292025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1302024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10242023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4252023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1242023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1252022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | SMITH BRADFORD L | Vice Chair and President | 11042025 | Sell | 518.49 | 30,411 | 15,767,821 | 243,527,700 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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