Moderna (MRNA)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $32.66 | Market Cap: $12.7 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Moderna (MRNA)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $32.66Market Cap: $12.7 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -30% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -164% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -157% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include mRNA Technology, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -56%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -52%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -46% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -90%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -121% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 66% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -29% | ||
| Key risksMRNA key risks include [1] sharply declining COVID-19 vaccine demand coupled with intense competition in the respiratory vaccine market, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include mRNA Technology, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -164% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -157% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -56%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -52%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -46% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -90%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -121% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 66% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -29% |
| Key risksMRNA key risks include [1] sharply declining COVID-19 vaccine demand coupled with intense competition in the respiratory vaccine market, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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For the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 25, 2025, Moderna's (MRNA) stock movement of 35.9% can be attributed to several key developments: 1. Significant Funding for H5 Pandemic Influenza Vaccine.In December 2025, Moderna secured up to $54.3 million in funding from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) to support Phase 3 clinical trials for its mRNA-based H5 pandemic influenza vaccine (mRNA-1018). This initiative marks the first mRNA-based vaccine targeting pandemic influenza to reach a pivotal trial stage, providing a significant boost to Moderna's future pipeline and pandemic preparedness efforts.
2. Positive Phase 3 Results for Seasonal Flu Vaccine.
Moderna announced positive Phase 3 efficacy results for its seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) in June 2025. The vaccine demonstrated superior relative efficacy, being 26.6% higher than a licensed standard-dose seasonal influenza vaccine in adults aged 50 years and older. This positive clinical trial outcome likely fueled investor optimism regarding the diversification and strength of Moderna's product pipeline beyond its COVID-19 vaccine.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.5% change in MRNA stock from 9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 76.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 9242025 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.88 | 32.75 | 26.55% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3055.00 | 2202.00 | -27.92% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.29 | 5.80 | 76.47% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 388.00 | 390.00 | -0.52% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.54% |
Market Drivers
9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MRNA | 26.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.4% | 25.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.2% | 43.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.9% change in MRNA stock from 6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 75.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 6252025 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.86 | 32.75 | 21.93% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3139.00 | 2202.00 | -29.85% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.30 | 5.80 | 75.61% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 386.00 | 390.00 | -1.04% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.92% |
Market Drivers
6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MRNA | 21.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.0% | 29.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.9% | 49.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -18.7% change in MRNA stock from 12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a -56.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12242024 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.27 | 32.75 | -18.67% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5056.00 | 2202.00 | -56.45% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.07 | 5.80 | 89.16% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 385.00 | 390.00 | -1.30% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -18.69% |
Market Drivers
12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MRNA | -18.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 35.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.3% | 42.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -83.5% change in MRNA stock from 12/25/2022 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a -89.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12252022 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 199.08 | 32.75 | -83.55% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20675.00 | 2202.00 | -89.35% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.76 | 5.80 | 54.46% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 390.00 | 390.00 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -83.55% |
Market Drivers
12/25/2023 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MRNA | -65.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.9% | 33.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 18.8% | 36.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MRNA Return | 434% | 143% | -29% | -45% | -58% | -22% | 65% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 115% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MRNA Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 50% | 25% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 28% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MRNA Max Drawdown | -9% | 0% | -54% | -61% | -63% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PFE, ALNY, SRPT, ALPS, EVMN. See MRNA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MRNA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 597.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -56.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 205 days | 120 days |
Compare to PFE, ALNY, SRPT, ALPS, EVMN
In The Past
Moderna's stock fell -85.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/9/2021. A -85.7% loss requires a 597.0% gain to breakeven.
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Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, develops therapeutics and vaccines based on messenger RNA for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States and internationally. The company has 44 development programs, which includes 26 in clinical trials across seven modalities comprising prophylactic vaccines, systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics, cancer vaccines, intratumoral immuno-oncology, localized regenerative therapeutics, systemic intracellular therapeutics, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. The company has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Moderna (MRNA):
- The Tesla of vaccine and mRNA drug development. (Highlights its disruptive, platform-based innovation and rapid development, similar to Tesla's impact on the automotive industry).
- A Pfizer or Merck focused purely on cutting-edge mRNA technology. (Places it within the established pharmaceutical landscape but emphasizes its specialized, revolutionary technological core).
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- Spikevax (mRNA-1273): Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine, which has received full approval or emergency use authorization globally.
- RSV Vaccine (mRNA-1345): An investigational vaccine candidate for respiratory syncytial virus, currently in late-stage clinical development and awaiting regulatory approval.
- Influenza Vaccines (e.g., mRNA-1010): A portfolio of investigational mRNA-based vaccines targeting various strains of influenza, with some candidates in late-stage clinical trials.
- CMV Vaccine (mRNA-1647): An investigational vaccine candidate for cytomegalovirus, currently in late-stage clinical trials.
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Moderna (MRNA) primarily sells its products, predominantly vaccines, to national governments and supranational organizations directly, rather than to other companies or individuals. Therefore, its major direct customers are governments.
Given that governments are not "companies" in the traditional sense (especially not public companies with symbols), and Moderna does not sell primarily to individuals, the company's customer base does not neatly fit into the two conditional categories provided by the prompt. However, to provide the most relevant information:
Major Direct Customers (Governments):
Based on Moderna's financial disclosures, a significant portion of its revenue has historically come from a limited number of national government contracts. Examples of major direct customers include:
- Government of the United States
- Government of Japan
- Government of Canada
Categories of Ultimate Beneficiaries/Populations Served:
While Moderna does not sell directly to individuals, the governments procuring Moderna's vaccines distribute them to their populations. In the context of identifying who ultimately benefits from the company's products, these categories represent the beneficiaries served by the government's procurement and distribution efforts:
- General Adult Population: Individuals typically aged 18 and older, based on vaccine authorization and public health campaigns.
- Vulnerable and High-Risk Groups: Including the elderly, immunocompromised individuals, and those with underlying health conditions, who are often prioritized for vaccination campaigns.
- Pediatric and Adolescent Populations: Specific age cohorts (e.g., 6 months to 11 years, 12-17 years) depending on vaccine approvals and public health recommendations for younger age groups.
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Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer
Stéphane Bancel is the Chief Executive Officer and co-founder of Moderna. Before joining Moderna, he served as the CEO of bioMérieux SA, a French diagnostics company, where he was credited with improving the company's margins. He also held various leadership roles at Eli Lilly and Company, including Managing Director of Belgium and Executive Director of Global Manufacturing Strategy and Supply Chain. Mr. Bancel is a venture partner at Flagship Pioneering, a life-sciences venture capital firm that invests in and incubates companies, with Moderna being one of its portfolio companies. He has also served on the boards of other companies like Indigo Agriculture and Qiagen.
Jamey Mock, Chief Financial Officer
Jamey Mock serves as the Chief Financial Officer of Moderna, overseeing financial, business development, and business services functions. He joined Moderna in September 2022 from PerkinElmer, Inc., a life sciences, diagnostics, and analytical solutions company, where he served as Senior Vice President and CFO since May 2018. During his tenure at PerkinElmer, he oversaw several acquisitions, including a roughly $5.3 billion takeover of BioLegend. PerkinElmer also announced plans to divest its food and enterprise services division to a private equity firm during his time there. Prior to PerkinElmer, Mr. Mock spent nearly two decades in various financial oversight roles at General Electric Company, both in the United States and internationally.
Stephen Hoge, M.D., President
Stephen Hoge was appointed President of Moderna in 2015 and leads all scientific research and clinical development efforts. He joined Moderna in late 2012 as Senior Vice President of Corporate Development. Before his time at Moderna, Dr. Hoge was a partner in the healthcare practice at McKinsey & Company. He previously worked as an emergency room physician in New York City. Dr. Hoge also serves on the Board of Directors of Axcella Health, Inc., which is a private biotechnology company.
Arpa Garay, Chief Commercial Officer
Arpa Garay joined Moderna in May 2022 as the Chief Commercial Officer. In this role, she is responsible for the company's global marketing for pipeline and approved products, and long-term portfolio management. Prior to Moderna, Ms. Garay spent over 15 years at Merck & Co., Inc. Most recently, she served as Chief Commercial Marketing Officer of Human Health at Merck, a position she obtained in February 2022.
Jerh Collins, Ph.D., Chief Technical Operations and Quality Officer
Jerh Collins serves as Moderna's Chief Technical Operations and Quality Officer, overseeing the technical creation, quality, and supply of the company's preclinical, clinical, and commercial programs. He has nearly 30 years of experience in pharmaceutical production and manufacturing, largely gained during his time at Novartis. Before joining Moderna, Dr. Collins was the Head of Global Chemical Operations and Anti-Infectives at Novartis.
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Key Risks to Moderna (MRNA)
- Declining Demand for COVID-19 Vaccines and Intense Competition in Respiratory Vaccine Market: Moderna faces significant challenges due to the declining demand for its COVID-19 vaccines, a primary revenue driver during the pandemic. The company's 2025 revenue forecast has been substantially lowered, partly due to this decrease and slower-than-expected adoption of its RSV vaccine. Moderna is encountering aggressive competition from established players like Pfizer and GSK in the respiratory vaccine market, who have leveraged bundled products and strong commercial strategies, making it difficult for Moderna to gain market share. This competitive pressure has directly impacted Moderna's financial outlook and forced cost-cutting measures.
- Reliance on Limited Product Portfolio and Challenges in Pipeline Diversification and Approvals: Moderna's business remains heavily reliant on its existing mRNA vaccine technology, particularly as it transitions from the pandemic-driven demand. While the company is actively working to diversify its product pipeline with up to 10 potential approvals targeted over the next three years, there are concerns regarding the timing of these new product launches and their ability to generate substantial near-term revenue. Regulatory hurdles, partly due to the extensive regulatory history lacking for some of Moderna's lipid nanoparticle (LNP) technologies, could also delay product approvals. Furthermore, the future of key pipeline candidates, such as the Merck-partnered cancer vaccine, remains uncertain, with potential delays in progression towards approval.
- Regulatory Uncertainty and Public Perception of mRNA Technology: The regulatory environment for vaccines is evolving, with signals suggesting potentially increased scrutiny on vaccines. Any changes in regulatory requirements or lengthened approval timelines could significantly impact Moderna's ability to bring new products to market and affect its revenue outlook. Additionally, public skepticism surrounding mRNA technology, which emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic, continues to affect market acceptance of mRNA-based products. While scientific consensus generally indicates that vaccine benefits outweigh risks, concerns about potential toxicity risks and known side effects, such as myocarditis and pericarditis, associated with mRNA technology persist.
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The primary emerging threat for Moderna (MRNA) is the significant and ongoing decline in global demand for its COVID-19 vaccine (Spikevax), which has been its sole commercial product and overwhelmingly dominant revenue source. As the pandemic shifts to an endemic phase, initial vaccination campaigns have largely concluded, and demand for boosters is substantially lower than peak levels. This decline is directly impacting Moderna's revenue generation and future growth projections.
A related emerging threat is the rapidly intensifying competition within the mRNA vaccine and therapeutic space. While Moderna was an early leader, established pharmaceutical giants and other biotechnology companies (e.g., Pfizer/BioNTech, GSK, Sanofi) are aggressively developing their own mRNA platforms and pipelines for various infectious diseases (such as influenza and RSV) and other therapeutic areas. This escalating competition could lead to increased price pressure, market share erosion, and challenges for Moderna to establish leadership in new product categories beyond COVID-19, particularly as competitors bring differentiated or potentially superior products to market.
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Moderna (MRNA) focuses on messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics, primarily mRNA vaccines and therapies. The addressable markets for their main products and services vary by product and region.
Moderna's Main Products and Addressable Markets:
-
COVID-19 Vaccine (Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE)
- U.S. Private Market: The potential annual private market in the U.S. for COVID-19 vaccines could be approximately $12.9 billion, assuming half of the U.S. adult population receives an annual booster at a price of $100 per dose. Other scenarios estimate the U.S. private market at $10.6 billion (at $82/shot) or $8.3 billion (at $64/shot).
- Global Market: The global COVID-19 vaccine market was valued at US$92.6 billion in 2021 and is projected to reach over US$9.9 billion by the end of 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -13.6% from 2022 to 2031. More recently, the global COVID-19 vaccine market is expected to reach USD 13.71 billion in 2025 and decline to USD 8.28 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of -9.10%.
-
RSV Vaccine (mRESVIA)
- U.S. Market: Moderna's mRESVIA has received expanded FDA approval to include at-risk adults aged 18-59, tapping into an estimated 45 million at-risk individuals in the U.S. Analyst projections suggest mRESVIA could achieve peak sales of $8 billion to $10 billion by 2029. Moderna's sales for its RSV vaccine in Q3 2025 were $2 million. Some estimates indicate peak RSV vaccine sales for Moderna around $2.5 billion.
- Global Market: The global RSV vaccines market size was valued at USD 1.60 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 1.05 billion in 2025 to USD 2.49 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 13.1%. North America held a dominant market share of 82.5% in 2024. Another report values the global RSV vaccine market at $1,472.70 million in 2024, anticipating a reduction to $1,149.41 million in 2025 and $731.05 million by 2040.
-
Influenza Vaccine (mRNA Flu Vaccine)
- Global Market: The global mRNA flu vaccine market size was valued at USD 9.43 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 19.20 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 9.30%. The broader global influenza vaccine market is calculated at USD 8.49 billion in 2024, grew to USD 9.08 billion in 2025, and is projected to reach around USD 16.73 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 7.02%. North America led the influenza vaccine market with a 53% share in 2024. The flu RNA vaccines market, specifically, was valued at USD 982 million in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1.93 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 10.4%.
-
CMV Vaccine (mRNA-1647)
- Global Market: The global cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine market is estimated to be approximately $500 million in 2025 and is projected to grow at a conservative CAGR of 15% from 2025-2033. The global Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection Therapeutic Market is estimated to be valued at USD 248.3 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 406.6 million by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.3%.
-
Rare Disease Therapeutics
- Global Market: The RNA-based Therapies Market, which encompasses rare diseases, was valued at USD 90.56 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 213.54 billion by 2033, expanding at a CAGR of 10.0%. Rare genetic diseases contributed US$22 billion to this market in 2024. Moderna is developing mRNA therapies for rare genetic disorders like propionic acidemia (PA) and methylmalonic acidemia (MMA), which affect fewer than 200,000 people globally. There are approximately 7,000 rare diseases affecting over 300 million people worldwide, but only about 5% have approved drugs. The broader mRNA therapeutics market size was USD 19.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 42.64 billion by 2034.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Moderna (MRNA) over the next 2-3 years:
- Launch and Growth of New Respiratory Vaccines: Moderna anticipates significant revenue growth from its pipeline of non-COVID-19 respiratory vaccines. Key candidates include its Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) vaccine, mRESVIA, which has received approvals in various regions including the U.S., EU, Norway, Iceland, and Qatar, and is expected to contribute to sales, despite initial lower-than-anticipated uptake. The company's seasonal influenza vaccine (mRNA-1010) and a combination influenza/COVID-19 vaccine (mRNA-1083) are both in Phase 3 clinical trials, with potential regulatory approvals and market launches by 2026. Moderna aims to launch up to 10 new products over the next three years, diversifying its product portfolio beyond its initial COVID-19 vaccine.
- Advancement and Commercialization of Oncology and Rare Disease Programs: Moderna is actively developing a robust pipeline in oncology and rare diseases, areas poised to become significant long-term revenue drivers. The company has over 40 programs in its non-COVID pipeline, including notable progress in melanoma therapies through a strategic partnership with Merck (mRNA-4157) and rare disease therapies like mRNA-3705 for Methylmalonic acidemia (MMA), with a registrational study expected to begin in 2026. Successful progression and commercialization of these programs, particularly the personalized cancer treatments, could establish new substantial revenue streams.
- Continued Market Share Gains for Next-Generation COVID-19 Vaccines: While the overall COVID-19 vaccine market is contracting, Moderna continues to focus on its updated and next-generation COVID-19 vaccines, such as mNEXSPIKE and an updated Spikevax formulation. These have received approvals for the 2025-2026 season in several countries and are showing gains in market share, with mNEXSPIKE accounting for a growing portion of Moderna's COVID vaccine sales. The company's efforts in public health campaigns and timely shipments aim to maintain and grow its share in the evolving endemic COVID-19 market.
- International Expansion and Strategic Partnerships: Moderna is expanding its global footprint and securing multiyear supply agreements with various countries, including Canada, the U.K., and Australia. These strategic partnerships help broaden market access for its current and future mRNA vaccine portfolio, contributing to international sales. The establishment of local manufacturing facilities and regulatory approvals in these regions further supports market penetration and long-term revenue generation.
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Share Repurchases
- Moderna initiated a $3 billion share repurchase program in February 2022, which was completed in early Q4 2022.
- An additional $3 billion share repurchase program was authorized in August 2022, with $2.8 billion remaining under this authorization as of February 2023.
- Moderna repurchased $3.3 billion of common stock in 2022. In 2023, the company repurchased $1.153 billion in shares.
Share Issuance
- Moderna's shares issued for Q2 2025 amounted to $14.0 million.
- The annual value of shares issued for fiscal year 2024 was $66.0 million, an increase of 43.48% from the previous year.
- In connection with equity compensation, 7 million shares of common stock were issued between Q3 2021 and Q4 2022.
Inbound Investments
- From 2020 to 2021, Moderna received $955 million from Operation Warp Speed to accelerate the development of its COVID-19 vaccine.
- In 2020, Moderna received $483 million from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) for vaccine development.
- In March 2023, Moderna and Generation Bio announced a strategic collaboration where Generation Bio received a $40 million upfront cash payment and a $36 million equity investment from Moderna.
Outbound Investments
- Moderna made its first acquisition in 2023, purchasing Japanese DNA manufacturer OriCiro Genomics for $85 million. The acquisition aims to enhance cell-free DNA synthesis and amplification technologies, potentially reducing large-scale manufacturing time by up to 30%.
- In December 2022, Moderna committed to investing in mRNA research and development (R&D) in the UK and building a vaccine manufacturing center with a capacity of up to 250 million vaccines per year, as part of a 10-year partnership with the UK government.
- In 2023, Moderna entered an agreement with the Chinese government to develop mRNA drugs for exclusive use in China.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to be approximately $0.3 billion.
- Moderna's capital expenditures increased from $55.665 million in 2020 to $1.015 billion in 2024.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2024 were approximately $0.9 billion, and for 2023 they were approximately $1.0 billion. These investments are primarily focused on expanding manufacturing and research facilities.
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Peer Comparisons for Moderna
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 23.68 |
| Mkt Cap | 32.7 |
| Rev LTM | 2,414 |
| Op Inc LTM | -73 |
| FCF LTM | -78 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -219 |
| CFO LTM | -78 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -135 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 25.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -3.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -10.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -11.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -16.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -16.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 32.7 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | 4.0 |
| P/E | 5.2 |
| P/CFO | 2.2 |
| Total Yield | -6.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -62.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -143.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $32.75 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 12.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/07/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -31.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $26.84 | $27.50 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 22.0% | 19.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 65.8% | 67.9% |
| Downside Capture | 119.73 | 190.19 |
| Upside Capture | 206.28 | 142.57 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 25.1% | 35.9% |
MRNA Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.08 | 1.07 | 1.22 | 1.63 | 1.24 | 1.23 |
| Up Beta | 2.47 | 1.79 | 1.82 | 1.31 | 1.06 | 1.15 |
| Down Beta | 4.44 | 1.21 | 0.98 | 1.51 | 0.99 | 1.25 |
| Up Capture | 61% | 63% | 114% | 147% | 133% | 44% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 31 | 58 | 120 | 346 |
| Down Capture | 215% | 99% | 123% | 199% | 141% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 127 | 402 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of MRNA With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -17.2% | 16.4% | 19.2% | 71.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% | -10.4% |
| Annualized Volatility | 67.5% | 17.3% | 19.5% | 19.3% | 15.3% | 17.1% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.01 | 0.72 | 0.78 | 2.69 | 0.36 | 0.18 | -0.12 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 42.6% | 35.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 28.7% | 18.7% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLV, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of MRNA With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -24.9% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 18.7% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 32.6% |
| Annualized Volatility | 66.7% | 14.5% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.7% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.15 | 0.41 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.51 | 0.17 | 0.59 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 33.4% | 31.6% | 4.5% | -2.2% | 24.2% | 14.2% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLV, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of MRNA With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 8.4% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 69.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 72.0% | 16.6% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.43 | 0.48 | 0.70 | 0.83 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 24.1% | 21.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% | 12.7% | 7.4% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLV, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 3.3% | 13.4% | 18.7% |
| 8/1/2025 | -6.6% | -10.0% | -18.5% |
| 5/1/2025 | -5.3% | -15.7% | -6.9% |
| 2/14/2025 | 3.4% | 11.3% | 8.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | -3.0% | -18.7% | -14.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -21.0% | -31.6% | -34.9% |
| 5/2/2024 | 12.7% | 9.4% | 27.9% |
| 2/22/2024 | 13.5% | 11.3% | 18.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 8.5% | 9.4% | 18.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -10.0% | -12.8% |
| Max Positive | 22.7% | 33.2% | 93.2% |
| Max Negative | -21.0% | -33.8% | -34.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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