Tearsheet

Mercury Systems (MRCY)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $70.43 | Market Cap: $4.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment

Mercury Systems (MRCY)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $70.43
Market Cap: $4.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -24%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.9 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.6%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Software Security, Show more.
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 72%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Software Security, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -24%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.9 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.6%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 72%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MRCY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points that could explain the 4% stock movement for Mercury Systems (MRCY) during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today: 1. Strong Q1 Fiscal 2026 Financial Results. Mercury Systems reported robust first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on November 4, 2025, with revenue increasing by 10.2% year-over-year to $225.2 million, bookings reaching $250.2 million, and a record backlog of $1.40 billion, up approximately 6.5% year-over-year.

2. Significant Insider Share Sale by Hedge Fund. On November 6, 2025, Jana Partners Management, a hedge fund, executed a large insider sale of Mercury Systems shares exceeding $75 million, which accounted for more than half of the company's total insider sales in 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MRCY Return27%-37%-19%-18%15%61%-2%
Peers Return33%40%-26%35%-0%51%182%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MRCY Win Rate50%42%58%42%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate62%60%38%63%48%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MRCY Max Drawdown-17%-49%-26%-30%-28%-6% 
Peers Max Drawdown-34%-3%-37%-7%-13%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MU, AMAT, TXN, ADI, DIOD. See MRCY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMRCYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-64.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven179.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-34.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven37 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-41.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven70.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-84.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven544.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven710 days1480 days

Compare to MU, AMAT, TXN, ADI, DIOD


In The Past

Mercury Systems's stock fell -64.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/1/2021. A -64.2% loss requires a 179.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Mercury Systems (MRCY)

Better Bets than Mercury Systems (MRCY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MRCY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
MRCY_10312019_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312019MRCYMercury SystemsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
21.0%-6.5%-22.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
MRCY_10312019_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312019MRCYMercury SystemsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
21.0%-6.5%-22.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Mercury Systems

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MRCYMUAMATTXNADIDIODMedian
NameMercury .Micron T.Applied .Texas In.Analog D.Diodes  
Mkt Price70.23234.16268.63182.60278.2451.33208.38
Mkt Cap4.2262.7214.4166.0137.62.4151.8
Rev LTM93337,37828,61317,26610,3871,43013,826
Op Inc LTM-69,8098,6236,0122,630334,321
FCF LTM1361,6685,8232,0803,6781871,874
FCF 3Y Avg51-1,4436,4571,7323,439113923
CFO LTM15617,5257,7056,8974,1622595,530
CFO 3Y Avg829,1977,7886,5604,3102275,435

Growth & Margins

MRCYMUAMATTXNADIDIODMedian
NameMercury .Micron T.Applied .Texas In.Analog D.Diodes  
Rev Chg LTM8.6%48.9%6.6%9.9%7.1%10.4%9.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.7%20.3%4.4%-4.6%-0.6%-8.8%-1.2%
Rev Chg Q10.2%46.0%7.7%14.2%24.6%12.0%13.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.3%10.5%1.9%3.5%5.8%3.0%3.3%
Op Mgn LTM-0.6%26.2%30.1%34.8%25.3%2.3%25.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-5.3%-1.1%29.4%38.0%27.5%8.2%17.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%3.7%0.5%-0.1%1.8%-0.7%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM16.7%46.9%26.9%39.9%40.1%18.1%33.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.1%30.3%28.5%38.6%39.5%14.3%29.4%
FCF/Rev LTM14.5%4.5%20.4%12.0%35.4%13.1%13.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.7%-11.5%23.7%10.2%31.5%7.1%8.6%

Valuation

MRCYMUAMATTXNADIDIODMedian
NameMercury .Micron T.Applied .Texas In.Analog D.Diodes  
Mkt Cap4.2262.7214.4166.0137.62.4151.8
P/S4.95.05.19.711.31.75.1
P/EBIT-400.818.515.926.844.329.522.7
P/E-139.322.021.433.160.138.527.6
P/CFO29.410.719.024.228.39.521.6
Total Yield-0.7%4.8%5.6%6.0%3.3%2.6%4.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.3%0.9%3.0%1.6%0.0%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.3%-2.4%4.4%1.1%3.2%3.9%2.2%
D/E0.10.10.00.10.10.00.1
Net D/E0.10.0-0.00.10.0-0.10.0

Returns

MRCYMUAMATTXNADIDIODMedian
NameMercury .Micron T.Applied .Texas In.Analog D.Diodes  
1M Rtn-9.7%-0.2%13.2%13.1%19.1%-3.6%6.4%
3M Rtn4.1%97.4%72.3%-5.9%13.8%-2.5%8.9%
6M Rtn36.2%127.1%66.7%-2.7%27.8%7.1%32.0%
12M Rtn79.4%135.5%48.1%-4.4%27.8%-19.4%37.9%
3Y Rtn31.1%335.3%158.6%12.6%73.2%-43.9%52.1%
1M Excs Rtn-9.7%-0.2%13.3%13.1%19.1%-3.6%6.5%
3M Excs Rtn-1.9%83.3%64.7%-7.0%7.7%-9.3%2.9%
6M Excs Rtn21.4%112.4%52.0%-17.4%13.1%-7.6%17.3%
12M Excs Rtn57.2%126.5%41.7%-19.8%16.2%-34.6%29.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-24.5%254.1%93.9%-57.2%6.1%-114.4%-9.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Integrated Solutions457576654591438
Components192197167176227
Modules and Sub-assemblies186200167157131
Total835974988924797


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,927,196
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202512.0%
Average Daily Volume650,657
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.57
Basic Shares Quantity59,191,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/26/2025
6302025811202510-K 6/27/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/28/2025
12312024204202510-Q 12/27/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/27/2024
6302024813202410-K 6/28/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/29/2024
12312023206202410-Q 12/29/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/29/2023
6302023815202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022207202310-Q 12/30/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022816202210-K 7/1/2022
3312022510202210-Q 4/1/2022
12312021208202210-Q 12/31/2021