Mercury Systems (MRCY)
Market Price (6/25/2026): $105.54 | Market Cap: $6.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Mercury Systems (MRCY)
Market Price (6/25/2026): $105.54Market Cap: $6.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Software Security, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 472x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 63x Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 110% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.5% Key risksMRCY key risks include [1] an inability to achieve sustained profitability, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Software Security, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 472x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 63x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 110% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.5% |
| Key risksMRCY key risks include [1] an inability to achieve sustained profitability, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mercury Systems (MRCY) stock has gained about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Outlook.
Mercury Systems reported robust fiscal Q3 2026 results on May 5, 2026, exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced adjusted earnings per share of $0.27, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.06, a positive surprise of 350.00%. Revenue for the quarter rose 11.5% year-over-year to $235.8 million, also above the consensus estimate of $208.56 million. Furthermore, Mercury Systems reported record bookings of $348.3 million, yielding a book-to-bill ratio of 1.48, and a record backlog approaching $1.6 billion, an increase of approximately $240 million or 17.9% year-over-year. Following these strong results, management raised its fiscal year 2026 outlook, anticipating annual revenue growth approaching mid-single-digits and full-year adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid-teens.
2. Key Contract Awards and Strategic Acquisition.
During the period, Mercury Systems secured significant new business and expanded its capabilities. On April 2, 2026, L3Harris selected Mercury to provide Solid-State Data Recorders for the Space Development Agency's Tranche 3 Tracking Layer Satellites. This was followed by Mercury receiving its largest production order for its Common Processing Architecture Servers on May 28, 2026. Additionally, the company made a strategic acquisition on March 12, 2026, purchasing SolderMask to support higher rate production. These contract wins and the acquisition underscore strong demand for Mercury's mission-critical processing technologies and enhance its operational capacity.
Show more
Mercury Systems (MRCY) stock has gained about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Outlook.
Mercury Systems reported robust fiscal Q3 2026 results on May 5, 2026, exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced adjusted earnings per share of $0.27, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.06, a positive surprise of 350.00%. Revenue for the quarter rose 11.5% year-over-year to $235.8 million, also above the consensus estimate of $208.56 million. Furthermore, Mercury Systems reported record bookings of $348.3 million, yielding a book-to-bill ratio of 1.48, and a record backlog approaching $1.6 billion, an increase of approximately $240 million or 17.9% year-over-year. Following these strong results, management raised its fiscal year 2026 outlook, anticipating annual revenue growth approaching mid-single-digits and full-year adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid-teens.
2. Key Contract Awards and Strategic Acquisition.
During the period, Mercury Systems secured significant new business and expanded its capabilities. On April 2, 2026, L3Harris selected Mercury to provide Solid-State Data Recorders for the Space Development Agency's Tranche 3 Tracking Layer Satellites. This was followed by Mercury receiving its largest production order for its Common Processing Architecture Servers on May 28, 2026. Additionally, the company made a strategic acquisition on March 12, 2026, purchasing SolderMask to support higher rate production. These contract wins and the acquisition underscore strong demand for Mercury's mission-critical processing technologies and enhance its operational capacity.
3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Increases.
Analyst sentiment toward Mercury Systems turned more positive during the analyzed period. Truist Financial upgraded shares to a "strong-buy" rating on May 1, 2026. Following the fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report, Canaccord Genuity Group increased its price target for Mercury Systems from $102.00 to $106.00 on May 7, 2026, while maintaining a "buy" rating. Jefferies Financial Group also reiterated a "hold" rating and issued a $105.00 target price on June 1, 2026. Overall, the company holds a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating from analysts, with various price targets signaling further potential upside for the stock.
4. Favorable Defense Industry Tailwinds.
Mercury Systems benefited from a supportive environment within the broader aerospace and defense sector. The company's stock movement was buoyed by positive momentum in the industrials sector, which saw a 6.2% gain quarter-to-date, reflecting a constructive backdrop for defense spending. The favorable wave for aerospace and defense names contributed to the stock's performance amidst broader market gains, easing bond yields, and optimism surrounding geopolitical developments.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.9% change in MRCY stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 89.03 | 105.00 | 17.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 943 | 967 | 2.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.6 | 6.5 | 15.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 59 | 59 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MRCY | 17.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.2% | 58.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 2.0% | 51.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.2% change in MRCY stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 69.89 | 105.00 | 50.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 933 | 967 | 3.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.4 | 6.5 | 45.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 59 | 59 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MRCY | 50.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.9% | 49.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.0% | 46.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 113.2% change in MRCY stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 97.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 49.25 | 105.00 | 113.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 887 | 967 | 9.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.3 | 6.5 | 97.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 59 | 59 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 113.2% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MRCY | 113.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 25.8% | 44.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 27.9% | 44.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 158.7% change in MRCY stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 184.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.59 | 105.00 | 158.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,010 | 967 | -4.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.3 | 6.5 | 184.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 57 | 59 | -4.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 158.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MRCY | 158.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 82.4% | 33.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 94.6% | 39.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MRCY Return | -37% | -19% | -18% | 15% | 74% | 52% | 26% |
| Peers Return | 5% | -6% | 32% | 26% | 66% | 6% | 192% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MRCY Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 40% | 58% | 68% | 62% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MRCY Max Drawdown | -49% | -42% | -44% | -28% | -21% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -31% | -17% | -17% | -21% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CW, HEI, KTOS, TDY, LHX. See MRCY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MRCY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 778 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1047 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1486 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Mercury Systems's stock fell -5.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | MRCY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 778 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1047 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1486 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.1% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 135 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -84.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 532.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 709 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Mercury Systems's stock fell -5.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Mercury Systems (MRCY)
Mercury Systems (MRCY) is a technology company specializing in the design and manufacture of advanced electronic components, modules, and integrated subsystems primarily for the aerospace and defense industries. Operating globally across the United States, Europe, and Asia Pacific, the company provides critical technology solutions deployed in a wide array of defense programs and commercial aviation applications.
Its extensive product portfolio ranges from foundational electronic components like power amplifiers, switches, and memory devices, to more complex embedded processing modules, digital receiver boards, and integrated radio frequency (RF) and microwave assemblies. Beyond these building blocks, Mercury Systems also develops sophisticated integrated subsystems and specialized solutions.
These advanced offerings include Digital Radio Frequency Memory (DRFM) units for electronic warfare, radar environment simulation and test systems, and signals intelligence payloads for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). By supplying these essential technologies, Mercury Systems serves as a key partner to defense contractors and commercial aviation customers, contributing significantly to national security and the technological capabilities of modern aerospace and defense systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe Mercury Systems (MRCY):
A specialized Intel or Nvidia for the aerospace and defense industry.
The 'brains' and 'nervous system' supplier for critical defense systems, much like how Qualcomm provides essential chips and technology for almost every smartphone.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Electronic Components: Fundamental electronic building blocks such as power amplifiers, switches, oscillators, filters, converters, chips, and memory devices.
- Advanced Electronic Modules & Sub-assemblies: Specialized boards and multi-chip modules for embedded processing, digital receivers, RF/microwave functions, and input/output.
- Integrated Subsystems: Complete, integrated systems combining various components and modules for specific aerospace and defense applications.
- Digital Radio Frequency Memory (DRFM) Units: Advanced electronic systems designed for various modern electronic warfare applications.
- Radar Environment Simulation & Test Systems: Specialized systems for simulating radar environments and testing defense and intelligence applications.
- UAV Payloads & Processor Systems: Technologies for small unmanned aerial vehicles, including signals intelligence, EO/IR capabilities, and onboard real-time processing systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mercury Systems (MRCY) sells primarily to other companies.
Based on the provided company description, Mercury Systems' major customers are other companies in the aerospace and defense industries. The company's products and solutions are deployed in approximately 300 programs with 25 defense contractors and commercial aviation customers.
The provided background description does not list the specific names of these customer companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Intel Corporation (INTC)
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
AI Analysis | Feedback
William L. Ballhaus President and Chief Executive Officer
William L. Ballhaus was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Mercury Systems in August 2023, having served as interim President and CEO since June 2023. He also assumed the role of Chairman of the Board. Ballhaus has extensive experience in the aerospace, defense, and technology industries, including multiple CEO roles. He previously served as Chairman and CEO of Blackboard, Inc., an EdTech company, from 2016 until its merger with Anthology in 2021. Prior to that, he was CEO and President of SRA International, Inc., an IT services provider, from 2011 until the creation of CSRA Inc. in 2015 from the combination of SRA and CSC's U.S. public sector business. From 2008 to 2010, he served as CEO and President of government contractor DynCorp International. Ballhaus also held senior leadership positions at BAE Systems, Boeing, and Hughes, where he led global government and commercial technology businesses. He is the founder of MilestoneRoad Partners LLC, established in 2021. He currently serves on several private company boards, including as Executive Chairman at Catalis and on the Board of Directors of Everfox. He holds a Bachelor's degree in Mechanical Engineering, Master's and Doctorate degrees in Aeronautics and Astronautics, and a Master's degree in Business Administration.
David Farnsworth Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
David Farnsworth was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Mercury Systems, effective July 2023. In this role, he is responsible for the company's financial reporting, accounting, and tax operations. Before joining Mercury Systems, Farnsworth served as Chief Financial Officer of HawkEye 360, a radio frequency data analytics company operating a commercial satellite constellation. Prior to HawkEye 360, he held several leadership positions at Raytheon, including Vice President and CFO of its Integrated Defense Systems business, CFO of its Intelligence, Information and Services segment, and CFO of its Technical Services business. He also worked at Raytheon Corporate headquarters, where he collaborated with the CEO and COO on strategic initiatives. Farnsworth currently serves on the Boards of Directors of Merrimack Valley Credit Union and USA Diving. He holds a bachelor's degree from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and a master's degree in business administration from Boston University.
Stuart Kupinsky Executive Vice President & Chief Legal Officer
Stuart Kupinsky is Mercury's Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer, overseeing the company's legal strategy, including mergers and acquisitions, intellectual property, and enterprise contracts. He has previously served as Chief Legal Officer and General Counsel for five public and private technology companies, including Blackboard Inc. (through its sale to Anthology Inc.) and Tekelec, Inc. (until its sale to Oracle). Kupinsky also served as Chief Counsel for FirstNet, an independent government agency.
Steve Ratner Executive Vice President & Chief Human Resources Officer
Ghassan Alaka Chief Information Officer
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Mercury Systems (MRCY)
The key risks to Mercury Systems' business operations include persistent operational losses and challenges in profitability, risks associated with contract execution and program delays, and intense competition within the defense industry necessitating continuous, substantial investment in research and development.
The most significant risk stems from Mercury Systems' ongoing operational losses and struggles with profitability. Recent financial reports indicate that "challenged programs" have adversely impacted earnings, with the company recording negative sales and net income in the second quarter of FY2024. The company has faced operational losses, with an $8.6 million loss from operations reported in a 10-Q filing, indicating difficulties in converting revenue growth into bottom-line profitability. Over the last five years, Mercury Systems has experienced a 7.6 percentage point decrease in its operating margin and an 18.3% annual decline in earnings per share, despite revenue growth, suggesting rising costs that it has been unable to pass on to customers. There is also a risk that legacy low-margin contracts could undermine future earnings.
Secondly, Mercury Systems faces significant risks related to contract execution and potential program delays. As a crucial supplier to major defense programs, the company's performance is highly exposed to the complexities, budget constraints, political decisions, and technological hurdles inherent in these initiatives. Any substantial delays or issues in key programs, such as the LTAMDS radar or the potential Golden Dome initiative, could directly impact the company's revenue and profitability. The company's sales growth has also been affected by supply chain issues and program delays, particularly in the wake of the pandemic.
Finally, the highly competitive landscape of the defense industry and the imperative for continuous investment in research and development (R&D) pose a substantial risk. Mercury Systems operates in a market characterized by numerous competitors vying for contracts and market share, including both established defense contractors and new entrants with innovative technologies. To maintain its competitive edge and meet evolving customer demands, the company must continually invest in R&D to develop new capabilities and differentiate its offerings. These R&D expenses represent a significant cost, and the company must ensure these investments translate into commercially viable products and solutions to drive future revenue and profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mercury Systems (MRCY) operates in several addressable markets within the aerospace and defense industries, including digital radio frequency memory (DRFM), signals intelligence (SIGINT), radar environment simulation and test systems, electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) technologies, and onboard processor systems for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
- Digital Radio Frequency Memory (DRFM): The global digital radio frequency memory (DRFM) market was estimated at USD 1.16 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 2.68 billion by 2031, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.07% from 2024 to 2031. North America held the largest share of this market. Another estimate values the global DRFM market at USD 1.3 billion in 2025, expected to grow to USD 3.9 billion by 2035 at an 11.1% CAGR. The North America DRFM market was valued at USD 0.91 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1.56 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 9.41%.
- Signals Intelligence (SIGINT): The global signals intelligence (SIGINT) market was estimated at USD 30.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 60.9 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.6%. North America is the largest market for SIGINT, with the U.S. alone accounting for approximately 93% share and generating USD 16.4 billion in revenue in 2025.
- Radar Environment Simulation and Test Systems: The global radar simulator market size was estimated at USD 3.13 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 4.28 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 5.6%. North America accounted for the largest share, over 31% in 2024. Another report projects the global radar simulator market to reach USD 3.48 billion by 2031 from USD 1.91 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.8%. North America dominated this market in 2023.
- EO/IR Technologies for Small UAV Platforms (Military Electro-Optics & Infrared Systems and EO/IR Gimbals): The global military electro-optics & infrared systems market size was approximately USD 10.7 billion in 2024, with projections to grow to USD 14.4 billion by 2033. The North America military EO/IR systems market is expected to exceed USD 4.1 billion by 2034. For EO/IR gimbals, the global market size was valued at USD 1.02 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to USD 3.36 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 14.13%. North America is predicted to have the most significant market share for EO/IR gimbals.
- Onboard UAV Processor Systems (UAV Chips and Drone Onboard Computers, as part of the broader Military Embedded Systems and Embedded Processor markets):
- UAV Chips: The global UAV Chips market was valued at USD 1,379.73 million in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 3,514.69 million by 2032, with a CAGR of 12.46%. North America leads this market with a 36% share. Another projection for the global UAV Chips market is from US$ 3,360 million in 2025 to US$ 6,091 million by 2032.
- Drone Onboard Computers: The drone onboard computer market was valued at USD 381.29 million in 2025 and is expected to increase to USD 897.03 million by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 13.0%. Another estimate projects this market to expand from USD 490.5 million in 2024 to USD 1802.3 million by 2034.
- Military Embedded Systems / Embedded Processors for Aerospace & Defense: The global embedded processor market size was valued at USD 21.15 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 36.63 billion by 2033. North America dominates the embedded processor market, holding over 35.6% share in 2024. The U.S. military embedded systems market alone was valued at USD 769.5 million in 2025, and North America held a 42.6% share of the global military embedded systems market in the same year.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mercury Systems (MRCY) anticipates several key drivers for its revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Conversion of Record Backlog and Higher-Margin Bookings: The company has achieved a record backlog approaching $1.5 billion, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.23 in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. This substantial backlog indicates a strong pipeline of future revenue. Management also expects new, higher-margin bookings to gradually replace legacy lower-margin programs, improving both revenue quality and growth.
- Expansion of Production Capacity and Operational Efficiency: Strategic investments in automated factory capacity, including an additional 50,000 square feet in Phoenix, Arizona, are expected to support the ramp-up of common processing architecture production. These efficiency initiatives and increased capacity enable the company to accelerate customer deliveries and pull forward revenue.
- Growth in Critical Technology Segments and Strategic Acquisitions: Continued success and follow-on awards in the common processing architecture segment are expected to drive revenue. Furthermore, the strategic value derived from acquisitions, such as StarLab's cyber capabilities, strengthens Mercury Systems' offerings and contributes to growth in key technology areas.
- Increased Global Defense Budgets and International Sales: While management maintains a conservative outlook, the potential for increased U.S. and international defense budgets presents an upside for Mercury Systems. Foreign Military Sales and other international revenues accounted for approximately 15% of total revenue in a recent quarter, highlighting the opportunity for growth in global defense spending.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- On November 3, 2025, Mercury Systems' Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program for the purchase of up to $200.0 million of the company's outstanding common stock, with no expiration date.
- During the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 (ended around December 2025), the company spent $15 million on share repurchases.
Share Issuance
- There were no significant public offerings by Mercury Systems for share issuance reported within the last 3-5 years.
- The company's institutional ownership remained largely unchanged at 114.12% in February 2026, indicating trading of existing shares rather than new company-initiated issuances.
- Some shares were issued in February 2026 through restricted stock vesting as compensation, though a total dollar amount for the period was not specified.
Inbound Investments
- No large, strategic inbound investments made in Mercury Systems by third-parties like private equity firms or strategic partners were reported within the last 3-5 years.
- A strategic review in 2023 explored a potential company sale following activist investor pressure, but no acquisition or major inbound investment was announced as completed.
Outbound Investments
- In March 2026, Mercury Systems acquired SolderMask, Inc., a specialized manufacturing processes provider, to enhance production capabilities and support higher-rate production.
- In May 2025, the company acquired Star Lab, which focuses on security for OS and embedded systems.
- In 2021, Mercury Systems made two notable acquisitions: Atlanta Micro for $90 million in November and Pentek for $65 million in May.
Capital Expenditures
- For the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, capital expenditures were reported as $6 million.
- Mercury Systems plans to bring over 50,000 square feet of factory space online in Q3 of fiscal year 2026 to support ramped production for its Common Processing Architecture programs.
- As part of the SolderMask acquisition in March 2026, Mercury intends to establish a parallel manufacturing process line at its Phoenix facility to boost production capacity and efficiency.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 311.28 |
| Mkt Cap | 28.2 |
| Rev LTM | 4,259 |
| Op Inc LTM | 911 |
| FCF LTM | 758 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 618 |
| CFO LTM | 837 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 682 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 13.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 28.2 |
| P/S | 6.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 41.3 |
| P/EBIT | 40.4 |
| P/E | 43.0 |
| P/CFO | 32.8 |
| Total Yield | 1.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 21.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 147.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 70.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Integrated Solutions | 476 | 457 | 576 | 654 | 591 |
| Modules and Sub-assemblies | 246 | 186 | 200 | 167 | 157 |
| Components | 190 | 192 | 197 | 167 | 176 |
| Total | 912 | 835 | 974 | 988 | 924 |
| $ Mil | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Computer Systems (ACS) | 32 | 22 | 13 | ||
| Elimination | -1 | 0 | -0 | ||
| Mercury Federal Systems | -1 | -1 | |||
| Stock Compensation Expense | -6 | -4 | -5 | ||
| EBU | -1 | ||||
| Advanced Solutions | -7 | 0 | |||
| Defense Electronics | -10 | -3 | |||
| Imaging and Visualization Solutions Group | -8 | -5 | |||
| Modular Products and Services | 0 | -2 | |||
| Total | 25 | 17 | 8 | -24 | -9 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $105.00 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/30/1998 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $96.70 | $83.94 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 8.6% | 25.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 57.2% | 57.4% |
| Downside Capture | 268.38 | 255.11 |
| Upside Capture | 268.53 | 286.17 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 57.9% | 47.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.14 | 2.53 | 2.37 | 2.36 | 2.08 | 1.06 |
| Up Beta | 4.98 | 1.90 | 1.45 | 1.25 | 1.66 | 0.86 |
| Down Beta | 1.62 | 1.38 | 1.21 | 1.19 | 1.54 | 0.61 |
| Up Capture | 642% | 364% | 385% | 617% | 582% | 360% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 24 | 32 | 66 | 136 | 384 |
| Down Capture | 271% | 323% | 274% | 228% | 167% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 17 | 31 | 57 | 112 | 361 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MRCY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRCY | 99.4% | 57.5% | 1.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 26.7% | 16.3% | 1.27 | 46.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.40 | 47.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.7% | 27.7% | 0.57 | 22.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.2% | 18.6% | 0.76 | -3.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.6% | 13.8% | 0.56 | 15.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.6% | 42.4% | -1.11 | 28.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MRCY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRCY | 9.2% | 46.2% | 0.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.7% | 17.6% | 0.61 | 39.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 34.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.4% | 18.3% | 0.73 | 14.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.9% | 19.5% | 0.26 | 8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 25.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.4% | 54.1% | 0.39 | 17.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MRCY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRCY | 16.0% | 44.1% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.4% | 20.0% | 0.63 | 46.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 44.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 8.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.7% | 18.0% | 0.24 | 11.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 35.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.2% | 66.5% | 0.97 | 13.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 10.5% | 11.3% | 42.0% |
| 2/3/2026 | -22.3% | -15.0% | -14.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | 3.3% | -3.9% | -6.8% |
| 5/6/2025 | -4.9% | -7.3% | 3.2% |
| 2/4/2025 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 4.1% |
| 11/5/2024 | 23.5% | 27.6% | 12.2% |
| 8/13/2024 | 17.6% | 13.9% | 8.3% |
| 5/7/2024 | -1.2% | -0.6% | 3.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.0% | 11.1% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -11.7% | -6.5% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 23.5% | 27.6% | 42.0% |
| Max Negative | -22.3% | -15.0% | -21.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 10.5% | 11.3% | 42.0% |
| 2/3/2026 | -22.3% | -15.0% | -14.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | 3.3% | -3.9% | -6.8% |
| 5/6/2025 | -4.9% | -7.3% | 3.2% |
| 2/4/2025 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 4.1% |
| 11/5/2024 | 23.5% | 27.6% | 12.2% |
| 8/13/2024 | 17.6% | 13.9% | 8.3% |
| 5/7/2024 | -1.2% | -0.6% | 3.6% |
| 2/6/2024 | -11.4% | -0.7% | 1.6% |
| 11/7/2023 | -12.6% | -5.7% | -1.8% |
| 8/15/2023 | 6.9% | 12.2% | 12.3% |
| 5/2/2023 | -17.3% | -11.4% | -11.3% |
| 1/31/2023 | 12.4% | 9.2% | 6.9% |
| 11/1/2022 | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% |
| 8/2/2022 | -13.3% | -12.6% | -16.3% |
| 5/3/2022 | 7.0% | -1.6% | 13.7% |
| 2/1/2022 | -7.4% | -7.9% | 22.4% |
| 11/2/2021 | 2.4% | 0.1% | -6.7% |
| 8/3/2021 | -12.0% | -13.4% | -21.5% |
| 5/4/2021 | -17.8% | -10.1% | -6.7% |
| 2/2/2021 | -5.6% | -0.1% | -15.3% |
| 11/3/2020 | -4.4% | -5.8% | -3.0% |
| 8/4/2020 | 0.5% | 1.3% | -1.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.0% | 11.1% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -11.7% | -6.5% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 23.5% | 27.6% | 42.0% |
| Max Negative | -22.3% | -15.0% | -21.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/16/2022 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/11/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/18/2020 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/05/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/15/2019 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Backlog to be recognized as revenue | 891.00 Mil | 10.4% | Higher New | Actual: 807.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/27/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lance, Howard L | The Howard L. Lance Revocable Living Trust Dated 9/1/2006 | Sell | 5272026 | 99.76 | 9,250 | Form | |||
| 2 | Ratner, Steven | EVP, CHRO | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 92.46 | 2,000 | 184,920 | 2,980,725 | Form |
| 3 | Farnsworth, David E | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 84.87 | 3,625 | 307,661 | 13,384,384 | Form |
| 4 | Jana, Partners Management, LP | See footnote | Sell | 3042026 | 89.68 | 100,899 | 9,048,622 | 368,998,942 | Form | |
| 5 | Jana, Partners Management, LP | See footnote | Sell | 3042026 | 90.12 | 168,648 | 15,198,558 | 379,902,392 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lance, Howard L | The Howard L. Lance Revocable Living Trust Dated 9/1/2006 | Sell | 5272026 | 99.76 | 9,250 | Form | |||
| 2 | Ratner, Steven | EVP, CHRO | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 92.46 | 2,000 | 184,920 | 2,980,725 | Form |
| 3 | Farnsworth, David E | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 84.87 | 3,625 | 307,661 | 13,384,384 | Form |
| 4 | Jana, Partners Management, LP | See footnote | Sell | 3042026 | 89.68 | 100,899 | 9,048,622 | 368,998,942 | Form | |
| 5 | Jana, Partners Management, LP | See footnote | Sell | 3042026 | 90.12 | 168,648 | 15,198,558 | 379,902,392 | Form | |
| 6 | Jana, Partners Management, LP | See footnote | Sell | 3042026 | 94.05 | 182,510 | 17,165,066 | 412,330,718 | Form | |
| 7 | Lance, Howard L | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 88.98 | 4,832 | 429,960 | 2,426,709 | Form | |
| 8 | Kupinsky, Stuart | EVP, CLO & Corp Sec | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 83.56 | 2,287 | 191,091 | 5,682,603 | Form |
| 9 | Munro, Douglas | SVP, CAO | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 83.56 | 582 | 48,629 | 1,197,182 | Form |
| 10 | Jana, Partners Management, LP | See footnote | Sell | 2112026 | 81.00 | 400,000 | 32,400,000 | 369,900,675 | Form | |
| 11 | Munro, Douglas | SVP, CAO | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 73.42 | 1,329 | 97,570 | 1,077,599 | Form |
| 12 | Plunkett, Debora A | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 73.99 | 1,700 | 125,784 | 1,245,484 | Form | |
| 13 | Jana, Partners Management, LP | See footnote | Sell | 11102025 | 75.45 | 1,000,000 | 75,450,000 | 374,735,629 | Form | |
| 14 | Munro, Douglas | VP, CAO | Direct | Sell | 9172025 | 73.40 | 67 | 4,918 | 1,174,981 | Form |
| 15 | Ratner, Steven | EVP, CHRO | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 63.76 | 7,000 | 446,312 | 2,155,115 | Form |
| 16 | Munro, Douglas | VP, CAO | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 64.46 | 376 | 24,238 | 1,036,194 | Form |
| 17 | Ratner, Steven | EVP, CHRO | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 64.46 | 1,735 | 111,845 | 2,630,196 | Form |
| 18 | Kupinsky, Stuart | EVP, CLO & Corp Sec | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 64.46 | 1,220 | 78,646 | 4,531,626 | Form |
| 19 | Farnsworth, David E | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 64.46 | 7,572 | 488,121 | 10,399,719 | Form |
| 20 | Ballhaus, William L | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 64.46 | 13,050 | 841,255 | 24,172,474 | Form |
| 21 | Munro, Douglas | VP, CAO | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 66.52 | 363 | 24,145 | 1,094,193 | Form |
| 22 | Ratner, Steven | EVP, CHRO | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 66.52 | 1,681 | 111,814 | 2,829,337 | Form |
| 23 | Kupinsky, Stuart | EVP, CLO & Corp Sec | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 66.52 | 1,182 | 78,622 | 4,757,046 | Form |
| 24 | Farnsworth, David E | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 66.52 | 7,339 | 488,163 | 11,234,470 | Form |
| 25 | Ballhaus, William L | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 66.52 | 10,395 | 691,437 | 25,810,075 | Form |
| 26 | Jana, Partners Management, LP | See footnote | Sell | 8152025 | 65.42 | 797,000 | 52,139,740 | 390,185,356 | Form | |
| 27 | Ratner, Steven | EVP, CHRO | Direct | Sell | 6182025 | 53.48 | 1,839 | 98,345 | 1,881,007 | Form |
| 28 | Munro, Douglas | VP, CAO | Direct | Sell | 5162025 | 45.64 | 1,610 | 73,480 | 613,082 | Form |
| 29 | Munro, Douglas | VP, CAO | 401K Plan | Sell | 5162025 | 44.88 | 809 | Form | ||
| 30 | Ratner, Steven | EVP, CHRO | Direct | Sell | 5122025 | 47.70 | 3,892 | 185,645 | 2,680,075 | Form |
| 31 | Ratner, Steven | EVP, CHRO | 401K Plan | Sell | 5122025 | 46.03 | 325 | Form | ||
| 32 | Jana, Partners Management, LP | See footnote | Sell | 5092025 | 45.87 | 100,000 | 4,587,000 | 310,141,427 | Form | |
| 33 | Jana, Partners Management, LP | See footnote | Sell | 5092025 | 46.27 | 88,152 | 4,078,793 | 317,472,953 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Electrical Components & Equipment Resources |
| EC&M (Electrical Construction & Maintenance) |
| Electrical Contracting News (ECN) |
| EE Times |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.