Mercury Systems (MRCY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $70.43 | Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Mercury Systems (MRCY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $70.43Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -24% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.9 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Software Security, Show more. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 72% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Software Security, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -24% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.9 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.6% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 72% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MRCY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points that could explain the 4% stock movement for Mercury Systems (MRCY) during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today:
1. Strong Q1 Fiscal 2026 Financial Results. Mercury Systems reported robust first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on November 4, 2025, with revenue increasing by 10.2% year-over-year to $225.2 million, bookings reaching $250.2 million, and a record backlog of $1.40 billion, up approximately 6.5% year-over-year.
2. Significant Insider Share Sale by Hedge Fund. On November 6, 2025, Jana Partners Management, a hedge fund, executed a large insider sale of Mercury Systems shares exceeding $75 million, which accounted for more than half of the company's total insider sales in 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MRCY Return | 27% | -37% | -19% | -18% | 15% | 61% | -2% |
| Peers Return | 33% | 40% | -26% | 35% | -0% | 51% | 182% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MRCY Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 60% | 38% | 63% | 48% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MRCY Max Drawdown | -17% | -49% | -26% | -30% | -28% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -3% | -37% | -7% | -13% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MU, AMAT, TXN, ADI, DIOD. See MRCY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MRCY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -84.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 544.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 710 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MU, AMAT, TXN, ADI, DIOD
In The Past
Mercury Systems's stock fell -64.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/1/2021. A -64.2% loss requires a 179.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MRCY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 10312019 | MRCY | Mercury Systems | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 21.0% | -6.5% | -22.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 10312019 | MRCY | Mercury Systems | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 21.0% | -6.5% | -22.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mercury Systems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 208.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 151.8 |
| Rev LTM | 13,826 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,321 |
| FCF LTM | 1,874 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 923 |
| CFO LTM | 5,530 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,435 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 151.8 |
| P/S | 5.1 |
| P/EBIT | 22.7 |
| P/E | 27.6 |
| P/CFO | 21.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 32.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 37.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 52.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 17.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 29.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/26/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-K 6/27/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/28/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 10-Q 12/27/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/27/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-K 6/28/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/29/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2062024 | 10-Q 12/29/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/29/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8152023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-Q 12/30/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8162022 | 10-K 7/1/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 4/1/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |