Tearsheet

Marqeta (MQ)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.745 | Market Cap: $2.1 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Marqeta (MQ)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.745
Market Cap: $2.1 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -34%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -75%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -76 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -13%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.2%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.8%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -34%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -75%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -76 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -13%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.2%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.8%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MQ Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for Marqeta's (MQ) stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025: 1. Analyst Downgrades and Lowered Price Targets. Goldman Sachs downgraded Marqeta's stock from "Hold" to "Strong Sell" on October 13, 2025, lowering its price target from $7.50 to $5.00. Additionally, UBS maintained a "Hold" rating but reduced its price target from $5.75 to $5.00 on November 6, 2025. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods also lowered their price target from $6.50 to $6.00 on October 1, 2025, while maintaining a "Hold" rating. These revisions by prominent analyst firms indicated a less optimistic outlook for the company's future performance.

2. Negative Future Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast. Despite meeting Q3 2025 analyst consensus estimates for EPS at -$0.01, Marqeta's future earnings are projected to decline significantly. Analysts anticipate a decrease from $0.06 per share to ($0.16) per share in the next year, which suggests concerns about long-term profitability and growth trajectory.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MQ Return---64%14%-46%25%-72%
Peers Return16%-8%-21%38%6%-7%14%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MQ Win Rate-33%25%58%25%60% 
Peers Win Rate15%27%15%35%31%78% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MQ Max Drawdown---67%-42%-51%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-6%-9%-27%-3%-11%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APPF, S, CHOW, ECST, NTSK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMQS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-89.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven831.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to APPF, S, CHOW, ECST, NTSK


In The Past

Marqeta's stock fell -89.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2021. A -89.3% loss requires a 831.4% gain to breakeven.

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About Marqeta (MQ)

Better Bets than Marqeta (MQ)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MQ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Marqeta

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MQAPPFSCHOWECSTNTSKMedian
NameMarqeta AppFolio Sentinel.ChowChow.ECST Netskope  
Mkt Price4.74235.7616.9710.18-19.6816.97
Mkt Cap2.18.55.6---5.6
Rev LTM589906907---906
Op Inc LTM-76132-328----76
FCF LTM10620817---106
FCF 3Y Avg48134-44---48
CFO LTM13421441---134
CFO 3Y Avg68144-22---68

Growth & Margins

MQAPPFSCHOWECSTNTSKMedian
NameMarqeta AppFolio Sentinel.ChowChow.ECST Netskope  
Rev Chg LTM20.1%18.9%25.4%---20.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-2.2%27.1%45.6%---27.1%
Rev Chg Q27.6%21.2%21.7%---21.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.4%5.1%5.0%---5.1%
Op Mgn LTM-12.8%14.6%-36.2%----12.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-19.5%8.3%-53.2%----19.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM6.6%-1.6%2.1%---2.1%
CFO/Rev LTM22.8%23.6%4.5%---22.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.8%17.9%-5.5%---11.8%
FCF/Rev LTM18.1%23.0%1.8%---18.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.4%16.4%-8.7%---8.4%

Valuation

MQAPPFSCHOWECSTNTSKMedian
NameMarqeta AppFolio Sentinel.ChowChow.ECST Netskope  
Mkt Cap2.18.55.6---5.6
P/S4.010.96.7---6.7
P/EBIT-31.474.8-19.8----19.8
P/E-59.848.6-14.1----14.1
P/CFO17.746.3148.8---46.3
Total Yield-1.7%2.1%-7.1%----1.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.0%1.5%-1.0%---1.5%
D/E0.00.00.0---0.0
Net D/E-0.3-0.0-0.1----0.1

Returns

MQAPPFSCHOWECSTNTSKMedian
NameMarqeta AppFolio Sentinel.ChowChow.ECST Netskope  
1M Rtn6.3%-9.5%0.6%19.3%--10.7%0.6%
3M Rtn-22.4%-15.6%-6.5%----15.6%
6M Rtn-13.8%9.2%-6.3%----6.3%
12M Rtn22.5%-12.1%-40.8%----12.1%
3Y Rtn-26.4%103.2%19.1%---19.1%
1M Excs Rtn5.0%-10.8%-0.7%18.1%--11.9%-0.7%
3M Excs Rtn-28.7%-23.0%-15.2%----23.0%
6M Excs Rtn-29.3%-6.2%-21.8%----21.8%
12M Excs Rtn8.1%-21.3%-51.5%----21.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-99.4%40.3%-63.4%----63.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,816,045
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120259.5%
Average Daily Volume6,670,953
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.52
Basic Shares Quantity448,717,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.7%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022810202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022511202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021311202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Sumner CrystalSee Remarks11172025Sell4.925,05524,8641,341,049Form