Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -56%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -147%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -171%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -24 Mil
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -373%
3   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 2347%
4   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 354%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -56%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -147%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -171%
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -24 Mil
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -373%
6 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 2347%
7 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 354%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MBRX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Moleculin Biotech announced a 1-for-25 reverse stock split, effective December 1, 2025. This move, typically viewed by investors as a sign of financial distress and often implemented to maintain compliance with Nasdaq's minimum $1.00 share price requirement, led to a significant decline in the stock price, with shares plummeting over 25% on November 26, 2025.

2. The company reported a substantially wider net loss for the third quarter of 2025. Moleculin Biotech posted a net loss of $25.4 million for Q3 2025, a significant increase compared to Q3 2024. This was primarily driven by a $20.6 million loss on the issuance of warrant liabilities.

3. Moleculin Biotech disclosed a "going concern" warning and precarious cash reserves. As of September 30, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $6.7 million, which it stated was insufficient to fund operations for at least one year, raising "substantial doubt about continuing as a going concern". The company is actively seeking an additional $7 million.

4. Moleculin Biotech missed analysts' earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Q3 2025. The company reported an EPS of -$0.68 for the third quarter of 2025, missing analysts' expectations of -$0.22 by 209.09%.

5. There was a delay in the anticipated data readout for its pivotal MIRACLE Phase 3 AML trial. While the company had initially aimed to recruit 45 subjects for early unblinded data by Q4 2025, an update on November 13, 2025, indicated that 60% of the target subjects had consented, and the completion of treatment for the first 45 patients is now expected in Q1 2026, with initial unblinded data anticipated shortly thereafter. This pushed back the expected timeline for a key clinical milestone.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MBRX Return-13%-94%-43%-19%-87%-84%-100%
Peers Return2%-1%6%8%-0%2%17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MBRX Win Rate33%8%25%42%25%30% 
Peers Win Rate13%8%13%12%10%90% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MBRX Max Drawdown-56%-94%-53%-64%-87%-84% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-5%0%-0%-1%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMBRXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-99.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven9983.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-61.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven162.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven23 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-75.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven304.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

Moleculin Biotech's stock fell -99.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/21/2021. A -99.0% loss requires a 9983.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Moleculin Biotech (MBRX)

Better Bets than Moleculin Biotech (MBRX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MBRX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Moleculin Biotech

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MBRXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameMoleculi.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Price7.59463.132.541.0711.0721.229.33
Mkt Cap0.0118.4----59.2
Rev LTM011,7230-0100
Op Inc LTM-24-92-5--93-70-70
FCF LTM-223,337-6--60-64-22
FCF 3Y Avg-242,064-10----10
CFO LTM-223,718-6--60-64-22
CFO 3Y Avg-242,419-10----10

Growth & Margins

MBRXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameMoleculi.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Rev Chg LTM-10.3%----10.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-11.0%----11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.7%----2.7%
Op Mgn LTM--0.8%----700.7%-350.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%----1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-31.7%----635.6%-302.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-28.5%----636.5%-304.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

MBRXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameMoleculi.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Cap0.0118.4----59.2
P/S-8.5----8.5
P/EBIT-0.522.4----11.0
P/E-0.327.2----13.5
P/CFO-0.526.9----13.2
Total Yield-368.8%3.7%-----182.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4,521.9%2.3%-----2,259.8%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.6-0.0-----0.3

Returns

MBRXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameMoleculi.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
1M Rtn-41.6%8.7%---9.9%--9.9%
3M Rtn-19.1%16.8%--12.5%-12.5%
6M Rtn-54.9%3.9%-----25.5%
12M Rtn-88.2%1.3%-----43.4%
3Y Rtn-98.5%44.1%-----27.2%
1M Excs Rtn-41.5%8.7%---9.9%--9.9%
3M Excs Rtn-25.2%11.3%--4.5%-4.5%
6M Excs Rtn-69.6%-10.8%-----40.2%
12M Excs Rtn-102.6%-14.6%-----58.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-171.3%-25.9%-----98.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Development and commercialization of drug products3857842925
Total3857842925


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,289,424
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-39.3%
Average Daily Volume4,122,334
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.28
Basic Shares Quantity1,492,178
Short % of Basic Shares354.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251113202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025812202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024321202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023322202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231113202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022322202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022511202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021324202210-K 12/31/2021