Tearsheet

MBIA (MBI)


Market Price (12/28/2025): $7.125 | Market Cap: $353.4 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Life & Health Insurance

MBIA (MBI)


Market Price (12/28/2025): $7.125
Market Cap: $353.4 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Life & Health Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 442%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 502%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -48%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 14%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 90%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Financial Infrastructure & Stability. Themes include Public Finance Risk Management, and Credit Enhancement Solutions.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53%
4   Key risks
MBI key risks include [1] a significant capital deficit driven by a deeply negative book value and persistent unprofitability, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 442%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 14%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Financial Infrastructure & Stability. Themes include Public Finance Risk Management, and Credit Enhancement Solutions.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 502%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -48%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 90%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53%
9 Key risks
MBI key risks include [1] a significant capital deficit driven by a deeply negative book value and persistent unprofitability, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MBI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

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Here are five key points explaining the approximate -10.6% movement in MBIA (MBI) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 28, 2025:

<b>1. Significant Miss in Q3 2025 Earnings per Share:</b> MBIA reported an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.15 for the third quarter of 2025, substantially missing the consensus analyst estimate of -$0.03. This weaker-than-expected profitability, announced on November 4, 2025, likely contributed significantly to the stock's decline.

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<b>2. Lower-than-Expected Quarterly Revenue:</b> In conjunction with the EPS miss, MBIA's Q3 2025 revenue was reported as $13 million, falling considerably short of analysts' expectations of $21 million. This revenue shortfall indicated a weaker top-line performance than anticipated by the market.

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<b>3. Persistent Uncertainty Regarding PREPA Exposure:</b> The ongoing and unresolved nature of National's more than $800 million exposure to PREPA (Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority) continued to be a significant concern for investors. This prolonged uncertainty impeded strategic actions and the realization of value for the company, contributing to a cautious market sentiment.

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<b>4. Continued Decline in Book Value Per Share:</b> As disclosed in the Q2 2025 results, MBIA's book value per share decreased to a negative $43.14 as of June 30, 2025, from a negative $40.99 at the end of 2024. This ongoing erosion of book value highlighted persistent capital challenges within the company.

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<b>5. Mixed Analyst Outlook and Caution:</b> While some analysts adjusted their price targets upwards, the overall sentiment from the analyst community remained mixed to cautious, with some firms reiterating "sell" ratings and the consensus being a "Hold." This lack of a strong, uniformly positive outlook likely contributed to the stock's inability to rebound amidst the negative financial news.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -6.4% change in MBI stock from 9/27/2025 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a -13.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
927202512272025Change
Stock Price ($)7.617.12-6.44%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)103.0089.00-13.59%
P/S Multiple3.663.978.40%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)49.5449.60-0.11%
Cumulative Contribution-6.44%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/27/2025 to 12/27/2025
ReturnCorrelation
MBI-6.4% 
Market (SPY)4.3%20.0%
Sector (XLF)3.3%33.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 64.8% change in MBI stock from 6/28/2025 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a 107.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
628202512272025Change
Stock Price ($)4.327.1264.81%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)43.0089.00106.98%
P/S Multiple4.863.97-18.32%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)48.3549.60-2.57%
Cumulative Contribution64.71%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/28/2025 to 12/27/2025
ReturnCorrelation
MBI64.8% 
Market (SPY)12.6%4.1%
Sector (XLF)7.4%17.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 16.7% change in MBI stock from 12/27/2024 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a -4.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
1227202412272025Change
Stock Price ($)6.107.1216.72%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)-26.0089.00-442.31%
P/S Multiple-11.183.97-135.48%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)47.6749.60-4.04%
Cumulative Contribution16.53%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/27/2024 to 12/27/2025
ReturnCorrelation
MBI16.7% 
Market (SPY)17.0%25.9%
Sector (XLF)15.3%28.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 28.3% change in MBI stock from 12/28/2022 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a 72.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
1228202212272025Change
Stock Price ($)5.557.1228.32%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)120.0089.00-25.83%
P/S Multiple2.313.9772.04%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)49.8849.600.56%
Cumulative Contribution28.31%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/28/2023 to 12/27/2025
ReturnCorrelation
MBI16.7% 
Market (SPY)48.0%27.9%
Sector (XLF)51.3%31.5%

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MBI Return-29%140%-19%9%6%10%75%
Peers Return16%38%-12%21%26%16%150%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%18%114%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MBI Win Rate50%67%58%58%33%33% 
Peers Win Rate52%65%42%68%57%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MBI Max Drawdown-39%-9%-42%-53%-46%-39% 
Peers Max Drawdown-34%-5%-26%-7%-9%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMBIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-63.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven174.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven122 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-45.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven84.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,365 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-96.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven3090.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1,480 days

Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL

In The Past

MBIA's stock fell -63.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -63.6% loss requires a 174.6% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About MBIA (MBI)

MBIA Inc. provides financial guarantee insurance services to public finance markets. It operates through United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance, and International and Structured Finance Insurance segments. The company issues financial guarantees for municipal bonds, including tax-exempt and taxable indebtedness of the U.S. political subdivisions and territories, as well as utilities, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, student loan issuers, housing authorities, and other similar agencies and obligations issued by private entities. It also insures the non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance, including asset-backed obligations; and sovereign-related and sub-sovereign bonds, utilities, and privately issued bonds used for the financing of projects that include toll roads, bridges, airports, public transportation facilities, and other types of infrastructure projects, as well as offers third-party reinsurance services. MBIA Inc. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

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Like a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, but for municipal bonds instead of mortgages.

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  • Municipal Bond Insurance: MBIA's primary active business involves providing financial guarantee insurance for municipal bonds issued by U.S. states, cities, and other public entities, assuring timely payment to bondholders.
  • Legacy Structured Finance Guarantee Management: The company actively manages its existing portfolio of previously written structured finance guarantees to mitigate potential losses and maximize recoveries from these older, non-new-business policies.

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MBIA Inc. (MBI) operates primarily through its subsidiary, National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation, which provides financial guarantee insurance. MBIA sells primarily to other entities rather than individuals. Its "customers" are the issuers of municipal bonds and other public finance obligations seeking to enhance the creditworthiness of their debt.

It is important to note that MBIA's major customers are not typically publicly traded corporations with stock symbols, but rather governmental and quasi-governmental entities. Therefore, listing specific public company names and symbols is not applicable in this context. Instead, its customer base can be described by the following categories of entities:

  • State and Local Governments: This category includes U.S. states, cities, counties, towns, villages, and other general-purpose municipal entities that issue debt to fund essential public services and infrastructure projects such as schools, roads, water and sewer systems, and public safety facilities.
  • Public Authorities and Agencies: These are specialized entities created by governmental bodies to perform specific public services, often possessing the authority to issue bonds. Examples include housing authorities, transportation authorities, utility districts, health care districts, and port authorities.
  • Special Districts: These are independent, special-purpose governmental units that operate separately from general-purpose local governments. They have their own taxing and spending authority and often issue bonds to finance specific services or infrastructure within their defined geographic area (e.g., fire districts, library districts, improvement districts).

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William C. Fallon Chief Executive Officer

William C. Fallon was elected as a Director of MBIA in May 2017 and appointed as Chief Executive Officer on September 15, 2017. Prior to his CEO appointment, Mr. Fallon served as President, Chief Operating Officer, and Vice President of the company, and led its Global Structured Finance Division. He also holds the titles of President and Chief Executive Officer of National Public Finance Guarantee Corp. Before joining MBIA in 2005, Mr. Fallon was a partner at McKinsey & Company, where he co-led the Corporate Finance and Strategy Practice. His work at McKinsey involved consulting with financial institutions on areas such as value-based management, valuation, mergers and acquisitions, securitization, and risk management. Earlier in his career, he was a financial consultant with Stern Stewart & Co. and a senior analyst at General Motors from 1989 to 1991, focusing on corporate and international finance, and mergers and acquisitions.

Joseph R. Schachinger Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

Joseph R. Schachinger was named Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of MBIA Inc. on April 30, 2024. On the same date, he was also appointed Chairman and Chief Financial Officer of MBIA Insurance Corp. Prior to these appointments, Mr. Schachinger served as the Controller of the company starting in May 2017, and as Deputy Controller from 2009. He initially joined MBIA in 2000 as a Vice President in the Controller's Group. Before his tenure at MBIA, Mr. Schachinger held positions at DNB US, New York, where he was Controller, Chief Trading Risk Officer, and Financial and Operations Principal.

Daniel M. Avitabile Assistant Vice President and President & Chief Risk Officer of MBIA Corp.

Daniel M. Avitabile serves as an Assistant Vice President of MBIA Inc. and as President and Chief Risk Officer of MBIA Corp. Before becoming Chief Risk Officer in 2016, he managed MBIA Corp.'s Special Situations Group, which was responsible for remediation and commutation activities. Mr. Avitabile has been with MBIA since 2000, holding various roles in insured portfolio management, remediation, corporate strategy, and structured finance new business. His experience prior to MBIA includes positions at The Chase Manhattan Bank and State Street Bank.

Adam T. Bergonzi Assistant Vice President and Chief Risk Officer of National

Adam T. Bergonzi is an Assistant Vice President of MBIA Inc. and the Chief Risk Officer of National. In this role, he oversees all of National's risk and insured portfolio management activities. Mr. Bergonzi rejoined MBIA in 2010 as Chief Risk Officer of National. From 2008 to 2010, he co-founded Municipal and Infrastructure Assurance Corporation, where he served as its Chief Risk Officer.

Christopher H. Young Assistant Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of National

Christopher H. Young is an Assistant Vice President of MBIA Inc. and holds the position of Chief Financial Officer of National. He was appointed National's Chief Financial Officer in March 2009. Prior to this, Mr. Young worked at MBIA Insurance Corporation from 2001 to 2009, gaining experience in a variety of Structured Finance positions and in Corporate Strategy.

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Here are the key risks to MBIA (MBI):

1. Negative Book Value and Persistent Unprofitability

MBIA faces a fundamental challenge with a significantly negative consolidated book value per share, meaning its total liabilities currently exceed its total assets. For example, as of September 30, 2025, the consolidated book value per share was -$43.17. The company consistently reports GAAP net losses, such as a consolidated GAAP net loss of $8 million for the third quarter of 2025, although this was an improvement from previous periods. This negative equity position is considered a critical red flag, indicating a deep-seated capital problem for a financial guarantee insurer. While MBIA has shown some progress in narrowing losses, sustained profitability remains unassured.

2. Uncertainty and Financial Exposure related to Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA)

The lingering uncertainty surrounding MBIA's exposure to the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) is identified as a major financial risk and a massive, unresolved liability. MBIA's subsidiary, National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation (National), has substantial exposure to PREPA debt, with $425 million in gross par outstanding as of September 30, 2025. The resolution of this exposure is complex, subject to ongoing litigation, and its unclear path could significantly delay final recoveries and lead to substantial future cash outflows. Rating agencies have previously downgraded MBIA due to concerns over these Puerto Rico risks.

3. Losses and Volatility from Zohar Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and other Structured Finance Exposures

MBIA Insurance Corporation (MBIA Corp), another subsidiary, continues to experience operational and financial risks related to its structured finance portfolio, particularly the Zohar Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs). In the third quarter of 2025, MBIA Corp reported a statutory net loss of $25 million, primarily driven by adjustments reflecting lower expected recoveries on paid claims associated with the Zohar CDOs. This indicates that recovery estimates from these legacy exposures are moving against the company, contributing to ongoing volatility in its earnings quality and book value per share.

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MBIA Inc. (MBI) operates primarily in three addressable markets: U.S. municipal bond insurance, structured finance insurance, and asset management services.

U.S. Municipal Bond Insurance

The U.S. municipal bond market, where MBIA provides financial guarantees for municipal bonds, had $4.2 trillion in outstanding debt as of the third quarter of 2024. The amount of municipal bonds insured by the industry, including MBIA, totaled $41.166 billion in 2024, an increase from $31.845 billion in 2023. The insured share of total municipal issuance in the U.S. reached approximately 7.9% from January through June 2025. In 2023, bond insurance accounted for 8.8% of the U.S. municipal bond market. Total municipal bond issuance in 2025 is projected to reach between $575 billion and $600 billion.

Structured Finance Insurance

MBIA's structured finance insurance segment, which includes asset-backed securities and mortgage-backed securities, operates in a global market. The global structured finance market size is projected to increase by $1,128.5 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.9% from 2024 to 2029. Structured finance products constitute approximately 60% of global debt securities.

Asset Management Services

MBIA offers fixed-income asset management services. The global asset management industry's assets under management (AuM) reached a record $128 trillion in 2024. In North America, which dominated the asset management market with a 33.59% revenue share in 2024, the U.S. specifically held an 83.9% revenue share within North America for asset management services in 2024. The U.S. asset management market (in terms of AuM) is valued at $63.28 trillion in 2025 and is forecast to grow to $112.17 trillion by 2030, at a CAGR of 12.13%. The revenue for asset management services in the United States is projected to reach $253.6 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 21% from 2024 to 2030.

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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for MBIA (MBI)

For MBIA (MBI), a public company primarily engaged in financial guarantee insurance with a focus on its existing portfolio, the expected drivers of future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years are centered on maximizing value from its in-force business and liabilities, rather than generating new financial guarantee policies.

  • Successful Resolution and Monetization of the PREPA Exposure: A significant driver for MBIA's future financial performance is the ongoing resolution and monetization of its exposure related to PREPA (Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority). Recent reports indicate that PREPA-related developments, including the sale of bankruptcy claims and custodial receipts, have reduced risk exposure and generated gains above prior estimates, significantly improving adjusted net income. The lower loss and loss adjustment expense (LAE) at National, primarily related to its PREPA exposure, also contributed to a favorable variance in statutory net income. Continued progress in this area is expected to positively impact recoveries and loss reserves, contributing to improved financial results.
  • Maximizing Recoveries from the Existing Insured Portfolio: MBIA's management continues to prioritize portfolio surveillance, remediation, and maximizing recoveries from its existing insured portfolio. While new financial guarantee business is not expected outside of remediation activities, the efficient management and successful recovery efforts on current exposures are crucial for mitigating revenue decline and enhancing the company's overall financial health. This involves actively working to recover value from outstanding guarantees.
  • Strategic Asset and Liability Management: The company's adjusted net income has seen favorable changes primarily due to improved recoveries and strategic asset sales. Effective management of its assets and liabilities, including opportunistic sales of certain assets and proactive de-risking of exposures for which reserves are held, can contribute to enhancing financial performance and unlocking value. This strategic approach to its runoff portfolio can positively influence its revenue profile through gains and reduced liabilities.

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Share Repurchases

  • As of October 31, 2025, MBIA had $71 million remaining under its existing share repurchase authorization.
  • In the first quarter of 2025, MBIA Inc. repurchased $6.97 million in shares.
  • During the first quarter of 2020, MBIA Inc. repurchased 8.1 million common shares at an average price of $7.99, and an additional 4.5 million common shares were repurchased through May 4, 2020, at an average price of $7.51.

Share Issuance

  • MBIA's shares outstanding increased from 50.4 million in March 2025 to 50.5 million in June 2025, indicating new shares were issued.
  • Annually, shares outstanding increased from 50.9 million in December 2023 to 51.0 million in December 2024, indicating share issuance.

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to MBI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.5%14.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.5%-1.5%-1.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.5%-4.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
7.6%7.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.1%-11.1%-12.1%

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MBIA

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MBIHPQHPEIBMCSCOAAPLMedian
NameMBIA HP Hewlett .Internat.Cisco Sy.Apple  
Mkt Price7.1223.2624.49305.0978.16273.4051.32
Mkt Cap0.421.932.6284.9309.24,074.4158.8
Rev LTM8955,29534,29665,40257,696408,62556,496
Op Inc LTM-3,6241,64411,54412,991130,21411,544
FCF LTM512,80062711,85412,73396,1847,327
FCF 3Y Avg-2942,9781,40011,75313,879100,5037,366
CFO LTM513,6972,91913,48313,744108,5658,590
CFO 3Y Avg-2943,6723,89613,49814,736111,5598,697

Growth & Margins

MBIHPQHPEIBMCSCOAAPLMedian
NameMBIA HP Hewlett .Internat.Cisco Sy.Apple  
Rev Chg LTM442.3%3.2%13.8%4.5%8.9%6.0%7.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg99.5%-3.9%6.5%2.6%3.7%1.8%3.2%
Rev Chg Q-48.3%4.2%14.4%9.1%7.5%9.6%8.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-13.6%1.1%3.7%2.1%1.8%2.1%2.0%
Op Mgn LTM-6.6%4.8%17.7%22.5%31.9%17.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-7.4%7.2%16.4%24.2%30.8%16.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.2%-1.4%0.6%0.4%0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM57.3%6.7%8.5%20.6%23.8%26.6%22.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-6.8%12.7%21.4%26.1%28.4%21.4%
FCF/Rev LTM57.3%5.1%1.8%18.1%22.1%23.5%20.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-5.5%4.6%18.6%24.6%25.6%18.6%

Valuation

MBIHPQHPEIBMCSCOAAPLMedian
NameMBIA HP Hewlett .Internat.Cisco Sy.Apple  
Mkt Cap0.421.932.6284.9309.24,074.4158.8
P/S4.00.41.04.45.410.04.2
P/EBIT14.76.819.925.122.531.321.2
P/E-2.08.6572.736.029.941.033.0
P/CFO6.95.911.221.122.537.516.2
Total Yield-49.3%14.1%2.3%5.0%5.4%2.8%3.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.5%2.1%2.2%2.1%0.4%2.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-104.7%10.6%5.5%6.4%6.0%3.1%5.7%
D/E9.50.50.70.20.10.00.4
Net D/E5.00.30.60.20.00.00.3

Returns

MBIHPQHPEIBMCSCOAAPLMedian
NameMBIA HP Hewlett .Internat.Cisco Sy.Apple  
1M Rtn-5.6%-1.8%14.4%0.6%2.7%-1.5%-0.4%
3M Rtn-6.4%-11.9%2.7%7.9%17.0%7.1%4.9%
6M Rtn64.8%-4.0%34.5%6.6%15.2%36.3%24.9%
12M Rtn16.7%-27.0%16.2%40.5%34.5%7.5%16.4%
3Y Rtn28.3%-1.9%71.1%143.1%81.3%120.2%76.2%
1M Excs Rtn-7.7%-5.6%12.9%-2.2%-0.0%-3.7%-3.0%
3M Excs Rtn-10.7%-16.2%-1.7%3.6%12.7%2.8%0.6%
6M Excs Rtn52.6%-16.3%22.3%-5.7%3.0%24.0%12.6%
12M Excs Rtn8.0%-42.9%-0.7%25.0%19.9%-8.4%3.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-50.8%-83.5%-11.2%59.6%-1.2%28.4%-6.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
U.S. Public Finance Insurance863583168234
Corporate511676923-29
International and Structured Finance Insurance-4346719775
Eliminations-87-94 -106 
Net gains (losses) on extinguishment of debt -4   
Total7150159282280


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Eliminations-1 -1  
Corporate-102 17-133-132
U.S. Public Finance Insurance-131 -179-54144
International and Structured Finance Insurance-250 -282-391-369
Total-484 -445-578-357


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
U.S. Public Finance Insurance1,7422,4913,3133,6444,019
International and Structured Finance Insurance9741,1322,8003,6714,504
Corporate7556458739541,041
Assets held for sale7380   
Eliminations-938-973-2,290-2,518-2,280
Total2,6063,3754,6965,7517,284


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$7.12 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.4 
First Trading Date07/02/1987 
Distance from 52W High-12.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$7.28$5.96
DMA Trendupindeterminate
Distance from DMA-2.2%19.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility37.6%59.5%
Downside Capture90.8864.17
Upside Capture40.3769.36
Correlation (SPY)20.0%25.8%
MBI Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.590.550.830.230.810.97
Up Beta-1.06-0.26-0.210.310.580.53
Down Beta0.970.48-0.080.281.261.00
Up Capture187%74%113%94%61%144%
Bmk +ve Days13263974142427
Stock +ve Days13233168127367
Down Capture41%81%174%-68%81%105%
Bmk -ve Days7162452107323
Stock -ve Days6183156118369

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
 Comparison of MBI With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y)
 MBISector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return17.5%16.3%17.8%72.1%8.6%4.4%-8.2%
Annualized Volatility59.5%19.0%19.4%19.3%15.2%17.0%35.0%
Sharpe Ratio0.490.670.722.700.340.09-0.08
Correlation With Other Assets 27.9%25.3%-1.7%6.2%29.0%10.8%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
 Comparison of MBI With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y)
 MBISector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return17.6%16.1%14.7%18.7%11.5%4.6%30.8%
Annualized Volatility67.2%18.9%17.1%15.5%18.7%18.9%48.6%
Sharpe Ratio0.490.710.700.970.500.160.57
Correlation With Other Assets 33.4%28.3%-3.3%5.9%26.7%11.8%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
 Comparison of MBI With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y)
 MBISector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return11.7%13.2%14.8%15.3%7.0%5.3%69.2%
Annualized Volatility58.0%22.3%18.0%14.7%17.6%20.8%55.8%
Sharpe Ratio0.410.550.710.860.320.220.90
Correlation With Other Assets 41.0%35.7%-3.1%13.4%32.8%10.5%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date12152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,593,963
Short Interest: % Change Since 11302025-5.4%
Average Daily Volume325,725
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.89
Basic Shares Quantity49,597,200
Short % of Basic Shares3.2%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/6/2025-4.4%-3.8%13.2%
5/8/2025-11.3%0.4%-8.7%
2/27/2025-13.5%-25.8%-28.6%
11/7/20246.7%42.0%45.8%
8/6/2024-7.6%-10.8%-15.0%
5/9/2024-8.5%-11.8%-21.7%
2/28/2024-5.1%-6.4%-1.7%
11/2/2023-8.8%-2.9%2.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive3711
# Negative211713
Median Positive10.8%6.0%10.3%
Median Negative-7.6%-6.7%-10.0%
Max Positive15.3%42.0%45.8%
Max Negative-19.0%-25.8%-35.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021