MBIA (MBI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.7 | Market Cap: $381.9 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Life & Health Insurance
MBIA (MBI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.7Market Cap: $381.9 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Life & Health Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 442% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -24% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 480% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -48% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -51% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 14% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Financial Infrastructure & Stability. Themes include Public Finance Risk Management, and Credit Enhancement Solutions. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 442% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Financial Infrastructure & Stability. Themes include Public Finance Risk Management, and Credit Enhancement Solutions. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -24% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 480% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -48% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -51% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MBI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. MBIA reported a GAAP net loss of $8 million for the third quarter of 2025. This net loss, reported on November 5, 2025, reflected ongoing challenges within its insured portfolios and restructuring efforts.
2. The company experienced a significant decrease in revenue, with total revenues of $15 million in Q3 2025, marking a decline from the previous year. This represented a substantial -54.55% decrease compared to the prior year's quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MBI Return | -29% | 140% | -19% | 9% | 6% | 12% | 78% |
| Peers Return | -22% | 24% | -12% | 25% | 22% | -4% | 26% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MBI Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 33% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 45% | 33% | 43% | 45% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MBI Max Drawdown | -39% | -9% | -42% | -53% | -46% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -18% | -27% | -9% | -18% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UFCS, TIPT, EHTH, OSG, MFC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MBI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -63.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 174.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1365 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -96.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3090.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to UFCS, TIPT, EHTH, OSG, MFC
In The Past
MBIA's stock fell -63.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -63.6% loss requires a 174.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MBI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MBIA
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| Rev LTM | 948 |
| Op Inc LTM | 55 |
| FCF LTM | 119 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 78 |
| CFO LTM | 122 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 83 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -2.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 5.2 |
| P/E | 7.0 |
| P/CFO | 2.5 |
| Total Yield | 16.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 22.8% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 39.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Public Finance Insurance | 86 | 35 | 83 | 168 | 234 |
| Corporate | 51 | 167 | 69 | 23 | -29 |
| International and Structured Finance Insurance | -43 | 46 | 7 | 197 | 75 |
| Eliminations | -87 | -94 | -106 | ||
| Net gains (losses) on extinguishment of debt | -4 | ||||
| Total | 7 | 150 | 159 | 282 | 280 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliminations | -1 | -1 | |||
| Corporate | -102 | 17 | -133 | -132 | |
| U.S. Public Finance Insurance | -131 | -179 | -54 | 144 | |
| International and Structured Finance Insurance | -250 | -282 | -391 | -369 | |
| Total | -484 | -445 | -578 | -357 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Public Finance Insurance | 1,742 | 2,491 | 3,313 | 3,644 | 4,019 |
| International and Structured Finance Insurance | 974 | 1,132 | 2,800 | 3,671 | 4,504 |
| Corporate | 755 | 645 | 873 | 954 | 1,041 |
| Assets held for sale | 73 | 80 | |||
| Eliminations | -938 | -973 | -2,290 | -2,518 | -2,280 |
| Total | 2,606 | 3,375 | 4,696 | 5,751 | 7,284 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Life & Health Insurance Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |