Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 442%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -24%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 480%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -48%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -51%
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 14%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Financial Infrastructure & Stability. Themes include Public Finance Risk Management, and Credit Enhancement Solutions.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 442%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26%
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 14%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Financial Infrastructure & Stability. Themes include Public Finance Risk Management, and Credit Enhancement Solutions.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -24%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 480%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -48%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -51%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MBI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. MBIA reported a GAAP net loss of $8 million for the third quarter of 2025. This net loss, reported on November 5, 2025, reflected ongoing challenges within its insured portfolios and restructuring efforts.

2. The company experienced a significant decrease in revenue, with total revenues of $15 million in Q3 2025, marking a decline from the previous year. This represented a substantial -54.55% decrease compared to the prior year's quarter.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MBI Return-29%140%-19%9%6%12%78%
Peers Return-22%24%-12%25%22%-4%26%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MBI Win Rate50%67%58%58%33%30% 
Peers Win Rate35%45%33%43%45%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MBI Max Drawdown-39%-9%-42%-53%-46%-39% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-18%-27%-9%-18%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UFCS, TIPT, EHTH, OSG, MFC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMBIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-63.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven174.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven122 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-45.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven84.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1365 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-96.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven3090.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to UFCS, TIPT, EHTH, OSG, MFC


In The Past

MBIA's stock fell -63.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -63.6% loss requires a 174.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MBIA (MBI)

Better Bets than MBIA (MBI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MBI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MBIA

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MBIUFCSTIPTEHTHOSGMFCMedian
NameMBIA United F.Tiptree eHealth Octave S.Manulife. 
Mkt Price7.6836.1618.624.168.8435.1013.73
Mkt Cap0.40.90.70.1-60.00.7
Rev LTM891,3532,05654325047,462948
Op Inc LTM---55--55
FCF LTM51297187-33-12728,608119
FCF 3Y Avg-294221157-24-123,42478
CFO LTM51306193-17-12728,608122
CFO 3Y Avg-294230166-11-123,42483

Growth & Margins

MBIUFCSTIPTEHTHOSGMFCMedian
NameMBIA United F.Tiptree eHealth Octave S.Manulife. 
Rev Chg LTM442.3%11.8%3.2%16.8%143.9%10.0%14.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg99.5%12.0%15.5%7.1%253.2%1.5%13.8%
Rev Chg Q-48.3%9.6%6.1%-7.8%-4.9%21.7%0.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-13.6%2.3%1.5%-0.8%-1.3%6.1%0.3%
Op Mgn LTM---10.1%--10.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg----2.1%---2.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM---0.5%--0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM57.3%22.6%9.4%-3.1%-51.0%60.3%16.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-18.6%8.9%-2.1%309.5%54.5%18.6%
FCF/Rev LTM57.3%22.0%9.1%-6.1%-51.0%60.3%15.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-17.9%8.4%-4.9%309.5%54.5%17.9%

Valuation

MBIUFCSTIPTEHTHOSGMFCMedian
NameMBIA United F.Tiptree eHealth Octave S.Manulife. 
Mkt Cap0.40.90.70.1-60.00.7
P/S4.20.60.40.2-1.20.6
P/EBIT15.45.23.62.3-6.15.2
P/E-2.17.014.22.6-9.07.0
P/CFO7.22.53.7-7.7-1.92.5
Total Yield-47.1%16.4%10.5%38.1%-17.0%16.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.1%3.4%0.0%-5.9%2.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-104.7%36.4%22.8%-18.8%-51.2%22.8%
D/E9.10.20.80.7-0.20.7
Net D/E4.8-1.4-0.10.1--0.2-0.1

Returns

MBIUFCSTIPTEHTHOSGMFCMedian
NameMBIA United F.Tiptree eHealth Octave S.Manulife. 
1M Rtn13.4%18.4%2.1%-19.7%-7.2%7.2%
3M Rtn-3.3%18.8%-19.2%1.0%-16.3%1.0%
6M Rtn69.5%30.1%-15.5%-5.5%-12.0%12.0%
12M Rtn12.3%19.9%-16.7%-26.6%-13.9%12.3%
3Y Rtn41.2%33.4%39.9%-21.4%-122.8%39.9%
1M Excs Rtn13.5%18.5%2.1%-19.7%-7.3%7.3%
3M Excs Rtn-8.5%8.4%-25.3%-0.0%-9.2%-0.0%
6M Excs Rtn54.8%15.4%-30.2%-20.2%--2.7%-2.7%
12M Excs Rtn-2.1%6.6%-29.9%-39.9%-0.2%-2.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-23.9%-40.1%-28.1%-50.4%-58.3%-28.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
U.S. Public Finance Insurance863583168234
Corporate511676923-29
International and Structured Finance Insurance-4346719775
Eliminations-87-94 -106 
Net gains (losses) on extinguishment of debt -4   
Total7150159282280


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Eliminations-1 -1  
Corporate-102 17-133-132
U.S. Public Finance Insurance-131 -179-54144
International and Structured Finance Insurance-250 -282-391-369
Total-484 -445-578-357


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
U.S. Public Finance Insurance1,7422,4913,3133,6444,019
International and Structured Finance Insurance9741,1322,8003,6714,504
Corporate7556458739541,041
Assets held for sale7380   
Eliminations-938-973-2,290-2,518-2,280
Total2,6063,3754,6965,7517,284


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,912,181
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.7%
Average Daily Volume380,520
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.03
Basic Shares Quantity49,597,200
Short % of Basic Shares3.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021