MBIA (MBI)
Market Price (11/3/2026): $4.575 | Market Cap: $233.4 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Life & Health Insurance
MBIA (MBI)
Market Price (11/3/2026): $4.575Market Cap: $233.4 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Life & Health Insurance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 19% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Financial Infrastructure & Stability. Themes include Public Finance Risk Management, and Credit Enhancement Solutions. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -19% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 826% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.7% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -68% Key risksMBI key risks include [1] a significant capital deficit driven by a deeply negative book value and persistent unprofitability, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Financial Infrastructure & Stability. Themes include Public Finance Risk Management, and Credit Enhancement Solutions. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -19% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 826% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.7% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -68% |
| Key risksMBI key risks include [1] a significant capital deficit driven by a deeply negative book value and persistent unprofitability, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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MBIA (MBI) stock has lost about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. MBIA reported a wider-than-expected Adjusted Net Loss for fiscal Q2 2026. The company announced its second quarter 2026 financial results on August 6, 2026, reporting an Adjusted Net Loss of $(0.14) per diluted share. This figure missed analysts' consensus estimates of $(0.12) per share by $0.02, representing a negative earnings surprise of 180.00%. While the reported revenue of $27 million for the quarter surpassed the consensus estimate of $5.75 million, the earnings per share miss likely contributed to negative investor sentiment at the start of the period.
2. Analysts reduced price targets and downgraded the stock's rating. Following the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods lowered their price target for MBIA from $7.50 to $7.00 in a report on August 13, 2026. Additionally, Weiss Ratings downgraded MBIA shares from a "sell (d-)" rating to a "sell (e+)" rating on October 13, 2026. The current consensus target price from analysts stands at $7.00, significantly higher than the trading price of approximately $4.50.
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MBIA (MBI) stock has lost about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. MBIA reported a wider-than-expected Adjusted Net Loss for fiscal Q2 2026. The company announced its second quarter 2026 financial results on August 6, 2026, reporting an Adjusted Net Loss of $(0.14) per diluted share. This figure missed analysts' consensus estimates of $(0.12) per share by $0.02, representing a negative earnings surprise of 180.00%. While the reported revenue of $27 million for the quarter surpassed the consensus estimate of $5.75 million, the earnings per share miss likely contributed to negative investor sentiment at the start of the period.
2. Analysts reduced price targets and downgraded the stock's rating. Following the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods lowered their price target for MBIA from $7.50 to $7.00 in a report on August 13, 2026. Additionally, Weiss Ratings downgraded MBIA shares from a "sell (d-)" rating to a "sell (e+)" rating on October 13, 2026. The current consensus target price from analysts stands at $7.00, significantly higher than the trading price of approximately $4.50.
3. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) exposure persists. Despite some progress, the resolution of National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation's (National) PREPA exposure continues to be a key priority for MBIA. During fiscal Q2 2026, National's outstanding PREPA exposure was reduced by $35 million due to insurance policy claims paid on PREPA bonds that matured on July 1, 2026. However, the ongoing nature of this exposure and related litigations introduce continued risk and uncertainty for investors, which can weigh on the stock performance.
4. The stock exhibits a negative market outlook and is trading below key technical indicators. MBIA (MBI) is currently trading near the lower end of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average. The company has received an "Underperform" smart score, indicating a likelihood of underperforming the market over the next 12 months. As a micro-capitalization company with a market capitalization of approximately $225 million, MBIA's results are primarily influenced by reserve and litigation outcomes, recoveries, and investment income, rather than premium growth, contributing to its volatility and sensitivity to adverse developments.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.5% change in MBI stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.12 | 4.58 | -10.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 90 | 94 | 4.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.8 | 2.4 | -13.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 50 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MBI | -10.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.7% | 23.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 1.1% | 42.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.6% change in MBI stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -32.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.84 | 4.58 | -21.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 80 | 94 | 17.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.6 | 2.4 | -32.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 50 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MBI | -21.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.9% | -5.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 10.8% | 31.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.9% change in MBI stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.83 | 4.58 | -32.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 103 | 94 | -8.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.3 | 2.4 | -25.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 50 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -32.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MBI | -32.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.2% | 10.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.3% | 31.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.6% change in MBI stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.00 | 4.58 | 52.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 108 | 94 | -13.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.4 | 2.4 | 79.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 50 | -2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MBI | 52.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.0% | 18.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | 85.7% | 23.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MBI Return | 140% | -19% | 9% | 6% | 11% | -36% | 60% |
| Peers Return | 42% | -7% | 15% | 7% | 22% | 10% | 117% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MBI Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 58% | 33% | 33% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 44% | 50% | 60% | 56% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MBI Max Drawdown | -30% | -45% | -56% | -52% | -47% | -44% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -38% | -29% | -22% | -26% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AGO, BLK, IVZ, BEN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MBI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -43.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 214 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 452 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -37.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 140 days |
In The Past
MBIA's stock fell -45.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 84.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | MBI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -43.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 214 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 452 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -37.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 917 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -48.1% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 353 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.2% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 125 days |
In The Past
MBIA's stock fell -45.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 84.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About MBIA (MBI)
MBIA Inc. (MBI) is a financial guarantee insurance company primarily serving the public finance markets. Its core business involves issuing insurance policies, known as financial guarantees, on various types of bonds and financial obligations. This service essentially means MBIA provides a guarantee that bondholders will receive their principal and interest payments even if the original issuer defaults, thereby enhancing the credit quality and marketability of the underlying debt for investors.
The company operates through two main segments. In its U.S. Public Finance Insurance segment, MBIA insures municipal bonds issued by a wide range of U.S. entities. These include state and local governments, their political subdivisions, and territories, as well as institutions such as utilities, airports, healthcare facilities, higher educational institutions, and student loan issuers. By guaranteeing these bonds, MBIA helps these public and quasi-public entities raise capital at more favorable rates.
Beyond the U.S., MBIA's International and Structured Finance Insurance segment extends its guarantees to non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance obligations. This includes asset-backed securities, sovereign-related and sub-sovereign bonds, and privately issued bonds that finance significant infrastructure projects globally, such as toll roads, bridges, and airports. Additionally, MBIA offers third-party reinsurance services, providing a layer of security for other insurers against potential losses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe MBIA:
- They're like AIG, but they specialize in insuring municipal bonds and large public infrastructure debt.
- Think of them as a specialized Chubb, focusing exclusively on guaranteeing payments for government bonds and asset-backed securities.
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- U.S. Public Finance Insurance: MBIA provides financial guarantee insurance for municipal bonds and various other public obligations within the United States.
- International and Structured Finance Insurance: The company offers financial guarantee insurance for non-U.S. public finance, global structured finance, and bonds financing infrastructure projects worldwide.
- Third-Party Reinsurance: MBIA provides reinsurance services to other insurance companies, assuming a portion of their risks.
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MBIA (MBI) sells its financial guarantee insurance services primarily to other companies and governmental entities, not individuals. Its customer base is diverse and encompasses a broad range of issuers in the public finance and structured finance markets. Due to the nature of its business providing guarantees for bonds issued by numerous entities, MBIA does not typically have a few identifiable "major customer companies" that would be listed by name and stock symbol. Instead, its customers fall into the following categories:
Customer Categories for MBIA (MBI):
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U.S. Public Finance Entities: This extensive category includes governmental and quasi-governmental bodies across the United States. Customers here are entities issuing municipal bonds, such as U.S. political subdivisions and territories (e.g., states, cities, counties), as well as utilities, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, student loan issuers, and housing authorities. MBIA guarantees their bond issuances to help them achieve lower borrowing costs.
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International Public Finance and Global Structured Finance Issuers: This segment includes sovereign-related and sub-sovereign entities globally, as well as private entities. These customers seek financial guarantees for various obligations, including asset-backed obligations and bonds used for financing large infrastructure projects such as toll roads, bridges, airports, and public transportation facilities in non-U.S. markets.
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Other Financial and Insurance Companies: MBIA also provides third-party reinsurance services. In this capacity, other insurance companies become MBIA's customers, purchasing reinsurance to transfer risk and manage their own portfolios.
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William C. Fallon, Chief Executive Officer
William C. Fallon was elected as a Director of MBIA Inc. in May 2017 and appointed as Chief Executive Officer on September 15, 2017. He also serves as President and Chief Executive Officer of National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation. Prior to his CEO appointment, Mr. Fallon served as President, Chief Operating Officer, and Vice President of MBIA Inc. and headed the Global Structured Finance Division. Before joining MBIA in 2005, he was a partner at McKinsey & Company, where he co-led the firm's Corporate Finance and Strategy Practice and specialized in consulting with financial institutions. Earlier in his career, he was a Senior Analyst at General Motors Corp.
Joseph R. Schachinger, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Joseph R. Schachinger was named Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of MBIA Inc. on April 30, 2024. He was also appointed Chairman and Chief Financial Officer of MBIA Insurance Corp. on the same date. Before these appointments, Mr. Schachinger served as the Company's Controller since May 2017, and prior to that, as Deputy Controller since 2009. Mr. Schachinger joined MBIA in 2000 as a Vice President in the Controller's Group.
Daniel M. Avitabile, Assistant Vice President; President and Chief Risk Officer of MBIA Corp.
Daniel M. Avitabile is an Assistant Vice President of MBIA Inc. and President and Chief Risk Officer of MBIA Corp. Before becoming Chief Risk Officer in 2016, he managed MBIA Corp.'s Special Situations Group. Mr. Avitabile joined MBIA in 2000 and has held various positions in insured portfolio management, remediation, corporate strategy, and structured finance new business. His prior experience includes roles at The Chase Manhattan Bank and State Street Bank.
Adam T. Bergonzi, Assistant Vice President; Chief Risk Officer of National
Adam T. Bergonzi serves as an Assistant Vice President of MBIA Inc. and Chief Risk Officer of National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation, overseeing its risk and insured portfolio management activities. From 2008 to 2010, Mr. Bergonzi co-founded Municipal and Infrastructure Assurance Corporation (MIAC) and served as its Chief Risk Officer before rejoining MBIA. He previously worked at MBIA Insurance Corp. from 1994 to 2006 in various capacities within insured portfolio management, new business, finance, and corporate strategy. He was also a senior credit officer at XLCA from 2006 to early 2008.
Christopher H. Young, Assistant Vice President; Chief Financial Officer of National
Christopher H. Young is an Assistant Vice President of MBIA Inc. and Chief Financial Officer of National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation. Prior to his appointment as National's Chief Financial Officer in March 2009, he worked at MBIA Insurance Corporation from 2001 to 2009 in various structured finance and corporate strategy roles.
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The key risks to MBIA Inc. (MBI) largely stem from its legacy business and the nature of financial guarantee insurance:
- Legacy Exposures and Negative Book Value: MBIA is primarily in a "runoff" mode, managing its existing portfolio of financial guarantee insurance rather than underwriting new policies. This legacy book of business, particularly within the MBIA Insurance Corporation unit, continues to significantly impact the company's financial health, contributing to a deeply negative book value. The MBIA Insurance Corporation has faced challenges in maintaining its minimum policyholders' surplus and has been non-compliant with certain single risk limits, which could restrict its ability to write new financial guarantee business. The company's strategic focus is on maximizing the value from its legacy MBIA Insurance Corporation and its "clean" National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation.
- Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) Exposure: The company's exposure to the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) is identified as a central and unresolved risk. Significant losses and loss adjustment expenses (LAE) for MBIA's National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation in both 2024 and 2025 were primarily tied to its PREPA exposure. While some positive developments occurred in 2025 through the sale of custodial receipts related to PREPA bankruptcy claims, this exposure remains a critical factor affecting MBIA's financial performance.
- Credit Losses and Adequacy of Loss Reserve Estimates: As a financial guarantee insurer, MBIA faces the inherent risk of increased credit losses or impairments on the public finance obligations it insures, especially from state, local, and territorial governments experiencing fiscal stress. A related and significant risk is the possibility that its loss reserve estimates may prove inadequate to cover potential future claims, which could materially impact its financial results.
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MBIA Inc. (MBI) operates in the financial guarantee insurance sector, primarily serving public finance markets with municipal bond insurance and global structured finance insurance.
Addressable Markets for MBIA's Main Products or Services:
- Global Financial Guarantee Market: This overarching market, encompassing services like those offered by MBIA, was valued at approximately $39.92 billion in 2023. It is projected to grow to nearly $74.87 billion by 2030, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% from 2024 to 2030. Another estimate valued the global financial guarantee market at $39.1 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach $87.9 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 9.42% from 2026 to 2033.
- U.S. Municipal Bond Insurance Market: The market for municipal bond insurance in the U.S. saw significant activity, with municipal debt backed by insurance climbing by 12.4% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in the previous year. The two leading bond insurers collectively guaranteed $22.1 billion in issuance during the first half of 2025. In 2023, municipal bond insurance grew by 10.4%, with the top two municipal bond insurers covering $31.845 billion. The insured share of total municipal issuance in the U.S. reached approximately 7.9% in the first half of 2025. The total outstanding U.S. municipal bond market was about $4.4 trillion as of the third quarter of 2025.
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MBIA Inc. (MBI) is positioned for future revenue generation and growth primarily through the following drivers:
- Increased Bond Insurance Penetration in Public Finance: MBIA is strategically positioned to capitalize on an expected increase in bond insurance penetration within the public finance market. This trend is anticipated to bolster the company's market presence, potentially leading to new policy issuance and, consequently, higher premium revenue for its U.S. Public Finance Insurance segment.
- Optimized Net Investment Income from Capital Redeployment: As MBIA resolves legacy exposures, such as those related to PREPA, and its existing insurance portfolios run off, freed-up capital can be strategically managed and redeployed into investments. Prudent investment decisions are expected to maximize net investment income, a crucial component of the company's overall revenue.
- Revenue from Strategic Asset Sales: The company is actively exploring strategic alternatives, including potential asset sales, to maximize shareholder value. Such sales, if executed with "premium valuations," could directly contribute to revenue and enhance the company's financial performance.
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Share Repurchases
- MBIA Inc.'s Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program on May 3, 2023, authorizing the company and/or National to purchase up to $100 million of its shares.
- As of February 19, 2026, there was $71 million of remaining capacity under the company's share repurchase authorization.
- MBIA Inc. did not repurchase any additional shares during 2025, and there were no purchases of MBIA shares during the fourth quarter of 2025.
Share Issuance
- On December 7, 2023, the company's Board of Directors declared an extraordinary cash dividend of $8.00 per share on MBIA's common stock.
- MBIA Inc. did not pay cash dividends on its common stock during 2025 or 2024.
- The company plans to continue seeking approval for additional special dividends from National to MBIA Inc. in future years, though the timing and amount are subject to regulatory approval.
Peer Outperformance in Life & Health Insurance
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 37.5% | 74.0% | 118.3% | SPNT 170% · RGA 148% · RNR 138% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | -1.9% | 90.1% | 92.3% | IBKR 314% · SNEX 159% · HOOD 140% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 32.8% | 141.8% | 91.6% | CM 142% · RY 130% · JPM 126% |
| Life & Health Insurance ← | 20 | 17.2% | 52.4% | 78.2% | JXN 536% · UNM 303% · FG 188% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 21.7% | 72.7% | 65.0% | PGR 176% · TRV 176% · ACGL 166% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 10.2% | 68.9% | 63.6% | AIZ 100% · GNW 98% · L 97% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 3 | 9.8% | 52.4% | 57.5% | BRK-B 93% · VOYA 57% · JEF 35% |
| Regional Banks | 262 | 34.5% | 91.3% | 53.5% | CBC 263% · FCNCA 189% · NIC 146% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | 19.8% | 33.8% | 32.6% | CBOE 176% · VIRT 144% · CME 71% |
| Insurance Brokers | 15 | 5.3% | 11.6% | 26.0% | LIFE 387% · ARX 89% · AJG 80% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks | 85 | -6.1% | 21.7% | 8.8% | VCTR 257% · WT 230% · AAMI 191% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 5.9% | 72.9% | 5.4% | ENVA 397% · FCFS 137% · AXP 101% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -5.1% | 18.6% | 3.3% | FRHC 171% · EQH 80% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 14 | -48.7% | 20.2% | -0.2% | FNMA 448% · FMCC 399% · ACT 167% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 8.4% | 31.0% | -20.6% | HASI -21% · CACC -28% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 17 | 15.8% | 17.6% | -22.2% | V 111% · MA 106% · CPAY 69% |
| Mortgage REITs | 35 | -19.0% | -7.6% | -35.2% | RITM 35% · DX 18% · AGNC 11% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 20 | -58.1% | 2.5% | -68.4% | LPLA 80% · TW 39% · WULF -60% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 32.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.7 |
| Rev LTM | 6,902 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,304 |
| FCF LTM | 324 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 914 |
| CFO LTM | 324 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,033 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 17.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance | 83 | 99 | 86 | 35 | 110 |
| Corporate | 69 | 96 | 51 | 167 | 166 |
| International and Structured Finance Insurance | 7 | -67 | -43 | 46 | 19 |
| Eliminations | -79 | -86 | -87 | -94 | -106 |
| Net gains (losses) on extinguishment of debt | -30 | ||||
| Total | 80 | 42 | 7 | 154 | 159 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Public FinanceInsurance | 291 | 337 | 251 | 569 | 575 |
| International and Structured Finance Insurance | 16 | ||||
| Eliminations | -4 | 6 | 68 | 66 | 23 |
| Corporate | -14 | -55 | -100 | 28 | 24 |
| Advisory Services | -25 | -17 | -5 | 3 | |
| Conduit | -6 | ||||
| Structured Finance and Internationa Insurancel | 384 | 300 | 1,296 | -2,455 | |
| Wind-down Operations | -86 | -356 | -409 | ||
| Total | 289 | 641 | 416 | 1,598 | -2,239 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance | 73 | -138 | -131 | -160 | -179 |
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | |
| Corporate | -60 | -37 | -102 | 33 | 17 |
| International and Structured Finance Insurance | -194 | -266 | -250 | -21 | -282 |
| Total | -181 | -441 | -484 | -148 | -445 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance | 1,475 | 1,549 | 1,742 | 2,491 | 3,313 |
| International and Structured Finance Insurance | 668 | 834 | 974 | 1,132 | 2,800 |
| Corporate | 653 | 707 | 755 | 645 | 873 |
| Assets held for sale | 8 | 11 | 73 | 80 | |
| Eliminations | -791 | -933 | -938 | -973 | -2,290 |
| Total | 2,013 | 2,168 | 2,606 | 3,375 | 4,696 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.58 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/02/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -40.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.54 | $5.65 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 0.9% | -18.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.2% | 39.8% |
| Downside Capture | 76.81 | 59.86 |
| Upside Capture | -4.89 | 5.89 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 17.4% | 11.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.20 | 0.77 | 0.68 | -0.15 | 0.35 | 0.86 |
| Up Beta | 2.65 | 1.77 | 1.18 | 0.63 | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| Down Beta | 0.29 | -0.21 | -0.14 | -1.07 | 0.18 | 0.89 |
| Up Capture | 47% | 67% | 39% | -26% | 2% | 74% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 19 | 30 | 55 | 114 | 364 |
| Down Capture | -27% | 120% | 124% | 32% | 69% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 24 | 33 | 69 | 131 | 374 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBI | -32.3% | 39.8% | -0.89 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 11.6% | 14.6% | 0.52 | 31.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 12.8% | 0.57 | 11.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.3% | 28.6% | -0.09 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.1% | 20.9% | 1.60 | -13.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.50 | 28.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.8% | 43.6% | -0.66 | 8.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBI | -7.1% | 64.8% | 0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.0% | 18.3% | 0.35 | 33.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.0% | 17.1% | 0.52 | 27.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.5% | 19.0% | 0.69 | -0.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 5.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 27.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 12.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBI | 2.4% | 57.7% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.4% | 22.1% | 0.55 | 40.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 34.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.5% | 0.57 | -1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.34 | 10.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 33.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.7% | 66.3% | 1.01 | 10.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -3.2% | -2.7% | -9.7% |
| 5/7/2026 | -10.6% | -5.6% | -7.5% |
| 2/26/2026 | 3.3% | 6.0% | -12.1% |
| 11/2/2023 | -8.8% | -2.9% | 2.5% |
| 8/2/2023 | -3.4% | -2.5% | -10.0% |
| 5/9/2023 | -17.2% | -16.5% | -9.3% |
| 2/28/2023 | -11.2% | -13.5% | -35.5% |
| 11/2/2022 | 15.3% | 17.2% | 25.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 9.3% | 6.0% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -7.4% | -6.7% | -9.7% |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 31.1% | 25.0% |
| Max Negative | -19.0% | -16.5% | -35.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -3.2% | -2.7% | -9.7% |
| 5/7/2026 | -10.6% | -5.6% | -7.5% |
| 2/26/2026 | 3.3% | 6.0% | -12.1% |
| 11/2/2023 | -8.8% | -2.9% | 2.5% |
| 8/2/2023 | -3.4% | -2.5% | -10.0% |
| 5/9/2023 | -17.2% | -16.5% | -9.3% |
| 2/28/2023 | -11.2% | -13.5% | -35.5% |
| 11/2/2022 | 15.3% | 17.2% | 25.0% |
| 8/3/2022 | -15.2% | 0.2% | -5.8% |
| 5/9/2022 | -3.6% | -1.8% | 17.6% |
| 2/28/2022 | -19.0% | -8.9% | 6.0% |
| 11/3/2021 | -3.2% | -13.4% | -28.0% |
| 8/5/2021 | -0.8% | 1.3% | -8.0% |
| 5/10/2021 | -11.7% | -7.2% | 4.0% |
| 3/1/2021 | -5.9% | 31.1% | 24.9% |
| 11/9/2020 | -4.1% | -6.7% | 10.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 9.3% | 6.0% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -7.4% | -6.7% | -9.7% |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 31.1% | 25.0% |
| Max Negative | -19.0% | -16.5% | -35.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/27/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/13/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shasta, Theodore | Direct | Sell | 8282025 | 7.90 | 6,382 | 50,418 | 396,153 | Form | |
| 2 | Dewbrey, Diane L | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 7.15 | 4,975 | 35,571 | 750,872 | Form | |
| 3 | Shasta, Theodore | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 6.71 | 8,361 | 56,102 | 379,303 | Form | |
| 4 | Shasta, Theodore | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 6.15 | 20,000 | 123,000 | 399,067 | Form | |
| 5 | Vaughan, Richard C | Direct | Sell | 8122025 | 6.07 | 25,086 | 152,272 | 527,325 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shasta, Theodore | Direct | Sell | 8282025 | 7.90 | 6,382 | 50,418 | 396,153 | Form | |
| 2 | Dewbrey, Diane L | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 7.15 | 4,975 | 35,571 | 750,872 | Form | |
| 3 | Shasta, Theodore | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 6.71 | 8,361 | 56,102 | 379,303 | Form | |
| 4 | Shasta, Theodore | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 6.15 | 20,000 | 123,000 | 399,067 | Form | |
| 5 | Vaughan, Richard C | Direct | Sell | 8122025 | 6.07 | 25,086 | 152,272 | 527,325 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 3, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Life & Health Insurance Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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