Tearsheet

MBIA (MBI)

Market Price (4/29/2026): $6.1 | Market Cap: $302.6 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Life & Health Insurance

MBIA (MBI)

Market Price (4/29/2026): $6.1
Market Cap: $302.6 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Life & Health Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 90%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%

Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 13%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Financial Infrastructure & Stability. Themes include Public Finance Risk Management, and Credit Enhancement Solutions.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 602%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -24%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -62%

Key risks
MBI key risks include [1] a significant capital deficit driven by a deeply negative book value and persistent unprofitability, Show more.

0	Strong revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 90%
1	Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%
2	Attractive yield FCF Yield is 13%
3	Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Financial Infrastructure & Stability. Themes include Public Finance Risk Management, and Credit Enhancement Solutions.
4	Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44%
5	Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 602%
6	Weak revenue growth Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -24%
7	Yield minus risk free rate is negative ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -62%
8	Key risks MBI key risks include [1] a significant capital deficit driven by a deeply negative book value and persistent unprofitability, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

	4/29/26	2025	2024	2023	2022
Share Price CYE	$6.10	$7.16	$6.46	$6.12	$12.85
Market Cap CYE ($ Mil)	302.6	355.2	308.4	286.8	640.9
Total Debt ($ Mil)	3,347.0	3,347.0	3,224.0	3,163.0	3,103.0
Total Cash ($ Mil)	71.0	71.0	87.0	107.0	66.0
Enterprise Value ($ Mil)	3,578.6	3,702.2	3,532.4	3,449.8	3,743.9
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	3.8	4.4	7.3	41.0	4.2
P/EBIT TTM	18.9	22.2	-1.3	-1.1	20.0
P/E TTM	-1.7	-2.0	-0.7	-0.6	-3.2
P/FCF TTM	8.0	9.3	-1.8	-1.5	-1.5
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	3.3	3.0	3.1	2.7	2.7
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	6.7	6.3	8.0	7.1	6.7
P/E TTM (Sector)	11.7	11.0	11.5	9.8	9.1
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	8.7	8.4	9.0	7.7	6.3

	4/29/26	2025	2024
Share Price CYE	$6.10	$7.16	$6.46
Market Cap CYE ($ Mil)	302.6	355.2	308.4
Total Debt ($ Mil)	3,347.0	3,347.0	3,224.0
Total Cash ($ Mil)	71.0	71.0	87.0
Enterprise Value ($ Mil)	3,578.6	3,702.2	3,532.4
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	3.8	4.4	7.3
P/EBIT TTM	18.9	22.2	-1.3
P/E TTM	-1.7	-2.0	-0.7
P/FCF TTM	8.0	9.3	-1.8
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	3.3	3.0	3.1
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	6.7	6.3	8.0
P/E TTM (Sector)	11.7	11.0	11.5
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	8.7	8.4	9.0

	MBI	S&P 500
REVENUE GROWTH
Rev LTM ($ Bil)	0.1
Rev Chg Q	-24.3%	7.6%
Rev Chg LTM	90.5%	6.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	165.0%	5.6%
PROFITABILITY	VERY POOR
Op Inc LTM ($ Bil)	�
CFO LTM ($ Bil)	0.0
Net Inc LTM ($ Bil)	-0.2
CFO/Rev LTM	47.5%	20.9%
Net Inc Mgn	-221.2%	12.8%
VALUATION	MODERATE
P/S	3.8	3.3
P/CFO	8.0	15.4
P/FCF	8.0	19.9
P/E	-1.7	24.1

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Metric	Value	Date	Source
National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation - Gross Par Outstanding	23.2 billion	9302025	Link
National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation - Statutory Capital	994 million	9302025	Link
National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation - Claims Paying Resources	1.5 billion	9302025	Link
National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation - Leverage Ratio (Gross Par to Statutory Capital)	23:1	9302025	Link
MBIA Insurance Corporation - Gross Par Outstanding	2.1 billion	9302025	Link
MBIA Insurance Corporation - Statutory Capital	79 million	9302025	Link
MBIA Insurance Corporation - Claims Paying Resources	326 million	9302025	Link
MBIA Inc. - Common Shares Outstanding	50.5 million	10312025	Link
MBIA Inc. - Remaining Share Repurchase Authorization	71 million	10312025	Link

Upcoming
5/14/2026	Earnings Release	Rev: $5.0 Mil (E) EPS: $-0.11 (E)

Price Chart

Return (1M):

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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MBIA (MBI) stock has lost about 15% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Significant Q4 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Miss.

MBIA reported a Q4 2025 EPS of -$0.24 on February 26, 2026, significantly missing the consensus analyst estimate of -$0.05 by $0.19. This represented a 140% miss on some expectations.

2. Persistent Negative and Declining Book Value.

As of December 31, 2025, MBIA Inc.'s book value per share further declined by $3.28, reaching a negative -$44.27 per share, primarily driven by the consolidated net loss reported for the full year 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -14.7% change in MBI stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).

(LTM values as of)	12312025	4282026	Change
Stock Price ($)	7.16	6.11	-14.7%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	89	80	-10.1%
P/S Multiple	4.0	3.8	-5.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	50	50	0.0%
Cumulative Contribution			-14.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026

	Return	Correlation
MBI	-14.7%
Market (SPY)	5.2%	31.7%
Sector (XLF)	-4.8%	34.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The -18.0% change in MBI stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).

(LTM values as of)	9302025	4282026	Change
Stock Price ($)	7.45	6.11	-18.0%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	103	80	-22.3%
P/S Multiple	3.6	3.8	5.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	50	50	-0.1%
Cumulative Contribution			-18.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026

	Return	Correlation
MBI	-18.0%
Market (SPY)	8.0%	26.3%
Sector (XLF)	-2.9%	33.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 22.7% change in MBI stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 90.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).

(LTM values as of)	3312025	4282026	Change
Stock Price ($)	4.98	6.11	22.7%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	42	80	90.5%
P/S Multiple	5.7	3.8	-33.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	48	50	-3.7%
Cumulative Contribution			22.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026

	Return	Correlation
MBI	22.7%
Market (SPY)	29.3%	29.8%
Sector (XLF)	5.7%	34.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 51.3% change in MBI stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 189.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	3312023	4282026	Change
Stock Price ($)	4.04	6.11	51.3%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	154	80	-48.1%
P/S Multiple	1.3	3.8	189.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	50	50	0.5%
Cumulative Contribution			51.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026

	Return	Correlation
MBI	51.3%
Market (SPY)	81.5%	20.4%
Sector (XLF)	69.3%	24.5%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	Total [1]
Returns
MBI Return	140%	-19%	9%	6%	11%	-14%	114%
Peers Return	42%	-7%	15%	7%	22%	2%	101%
S&P 500 Return	27%	-19%	24%	23%	16%	5%	91%
Monthly Win Rates [3]
MBI Win Rate	67%	58%	58%	33%	33%	50%
Peers Win Rate	62%	44%	50%	60%	56%	50%
S&P 500 Win Rate	75%	42%	67%	75%	67%	50%
Max Drawdowns [4]
MBI Max Drawdown	-9%	-42%	-53%	-46%	-39%	-22%
Peers Max Drawdown	-3%	-30%	-20%	-15%	-20%	-10%
S&P 500 Max Drawdown	-1%	-25%	-1%	-2%	-15%	-7%

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AGO, BLK, IVZ, BEN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/28/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique Key	Event	MBI	S&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock	2022 Inflation Shock
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss	% Loss	-63.6%	-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	174.6%	34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	Not Fully Recovered days	464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic	2020 Covid Pandemic
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss	% Loss	-40.1%	-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	67.0%	51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	122 days	148 days
2018 Correction	2018 Correction
2018 Correction% Loss	% Loss	-45.9%	-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	84.7%	24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	1,365 days	120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis	2008 Global Financial Crisis
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss	% Loss	-96.9%	-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	3090.4%	131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	Not Fully Recovered days	1,480 days

Compare to AGO, BLK, IVZ, BEN

In The Past

MBIA's stock fell -63.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -63.6% loss requires a 174.6% gain to breakeven.

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About MBIA (MBI)

Business Description Analogies Products Customers Suppliers Management Key Risks Emerging Threats Market Size Revenue Drivers Capital Allocation

MBIA Inc. provides financial guarantee insurance services to public finance markets. It operates through United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance, and International and Structured Finance Insurance segments. The company issues financial guarantees for municipal bonds, including tax-exempt and taxable indebtedness of the U.S. political subdivisions and territories, as well as utilities, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, student loan issuers, housing authorities, and other similar agencies and obligations issued by private entities. It also insures the non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance, including asset-backed obligations; and sovereign-related and sub-sovereign bonds, utilities, and privately issued bonds used for the financing of projects that include toll roads, bridges, airports, public transportation facilities, and other types of infrastructure projects, as well as offers third-party reinsurance services. MBIA Inc. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

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Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe MBIA:

They're like AIG, but they specialize in insuring municipal bonds and large public infrastructure debt.
Think of them as a specialized Chubb, focusing exclusively on guaranteeing payments for government bonds and asset-backed securities.

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U.S. Public Finance Insurance: MBIA provides financial guarantee insurance for municipal bonds and various other public obligations within the United States.
International and Structured Finance Insurance: The company offers financial guarantee insurance for non-U.S. public finance, global structured finance, and bonds financing infrastructure projects worldwide.
Third-Party Reinsurance: MBIA provides reinsurance services to other insurance companies, assuming a portion of their risks.

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MBIA (MBI) sells its financial guarantee insurance services primarily to other companies and governmental entities, not individuals. Its customer base is diverse and encompasses a broad range of issuers in the public finance and structured finance markets. Due to the nature of its business providing guarantees for bonds issued by numerous entities, MBIA does not typically have a few identifiable "major customer companies" that would be listed by name and stock symbol. Instead, its customers fall into the following categories:

Customer Categories for MBIA (MBI):

U.S. Public Finance Entities: This extensive category includes governmental and quasi-governmental bodies across the United States. Customers here are entities issuing municipal bonds, such as U.S. political subdivisions and territories (e.g., states, cities, counties), as well as utilities, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, student loan issuers, and housing authorities. MBIA guarantees their bond issuances to help them achieve lower borrowing costs.
International Public Finance and Global Structured Finance Issuers: This segment includes sovereign-related and sub-sovereign entities globally, as well as private entities. These customers seek financial guarantees for various obligations, including asset-backed obligations and bonds used for financing large infrastructure projects such as toll roads, bridges, airports, and public transportation facilities in non-U.S. markets.
Other Financial and Insurance Companies: MBIA also provides third-party reinsurance services. In this capacity, other insurance companies become MBIA's customers, purchasing reinsurance to transfer risk and manage their own portfolios.

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William C. Fallon, Chief Executive Officer

William C. Fallon was elected as a Director of MBIA Inc. in May 2017 and appointed as Chief Executive Officer on September 15, 2017. He also serves as President and Chief Executive Officer of National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation. Prior to his CEO appointment, Mr. Fallon served as President, Chief Operating Officer, and Vice President of MBIA Inc. and headed the Global Structured Finance Division. Before joining MBIA in 2005, he was a partner at McKinsey & Company, where he co-led the firm's Corporate Finance and Strategy Practice and specialized in consulting with financial institutions. Earlier in his career, he was a Senior Analyst at General Motors Corp.

Joseph R. Schachinger, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

Joseph R. Schachinger was named Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of MBIA Inc. on April 30, 2024. He was also appointed Chairman and Chief Financial Officer of MBIA Insurance Corp. on the same date. Before these appointments, Mr. Schachinger served as the Company's Controller since May 2017, and prior to that, as Deputy Controller since 2009. Mr. Schachinger joined MBIA in 2000 as a Vice President in the Controller's Group.

Daniel M. Avitabile, Assistant Vice President; President and Chief Risk Officer of MBIA Corp.

Daniel M. Avitabile is an Assistant Vice President of MBIA Inc. and President and Chief Risk Officer of MBIA Corp. Before becoming Chief Risk Officer in 2016, he managed MBIA Corp.'s Special Situations Group. Mr. Avitabile joined MBIA in 2000 and has held various positions in insured portfolio management, remediation, corporate strategy, and structured finance new business. His prior experience includes roles at The Chase Manhattan Bank and State Street Bank.

Adam T. Bergonzi, Assistant Vice President; Chief Risk Officer of National

Adam T. Bergonzi serves as an Assistant Vice President of MBIA Inc. and Chief Risk Officer of National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation, overseeing its risk and insured portfolio management activities. From 2008 to 2010, Mr. Bergonzi co-founded Municipal and Infrastructure Assurance Corporation (MIAC) and served as its Chief Risk Officer before rejoining MBIA. He previously worked at MBIA Insurance Corp. from 1994 to 2006 in various capacities within insured portfolio management, new business, finance, and corporate strategy. He was also a senior credit officer at XLCA from 2006 to early 2008.

Christopher H. Young, Assistant Vice President; Chief Financial Officer of National

Christopher H. Young is an Assistant Vice President of MBIA Inc. and Chief Financial Officer of National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation. Prior to his appointment as National's Chief Financial Officer in March 2009, he worked at MBIA Insurance Corporation from 2001 to 2009 in various structured finance and corporate strategy roles.

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The key risks to MBIA Inc. (MBI) largely stem from its legacy business and the nature of financial guarantee insurance:

Legacy Exposures and Negative Book Value: MBIA is primarily in a "runoff" mode, managing its existing portfolio of financial guarantee insurance rather than underwriting new policies. This legacy book of business, particularly within the MBIA Insurance Corporation unit, continues to significantly impact the company's financial health, contributing to a deeply negative book value. The MBIA Insurance Corporation has faced challenges in maintaining its minimum policyholders' surplus and has been non-compliant with certain single risk limits, which could restrict its ability to write new financial guarantee business. The company's strategic focus is on maximizing the value from its legacy MBIA Insurance Corporation and its "clean" National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation.
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) Exposure: The company's exposure to the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) is identified as a central and unresolved risk. Significant losses and loss adjustment expenses (LAE) for MBIA's National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation in both 2024 and 2025 were primarily tied to its PREPA exposure. While some positive developments occurred in 2025 through the sale of custodial receipts related to PREPA bankruptcy claims, this exposure remains a critical factor affecting MBIA's financial performance.
Credit Losses and Adequacy of Loss Reserve Estimates: As a financial guarantee insurer, MBIA faces the inherent risk of increased credit losses or impairments on the public finance obligations it insures, especially from state, local, and territorial governments experiencing fiscal stress. A related and significant risk is the possibility that its loss reserve estimates may prove inadequate to cover potential future claims, which could materially impact its financial results.

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MBIA Inc. (MBI) operates in the financial guarantee insurance sector, primarily serving public finance markets with municipal bond insurance and global structured finance insurance.

Addressable Markets for MBIA's Main Products or Services:

Global Financial Guarantee Market: This overarching market, encompassing services like those offered by MBIA, was valued at approximately $39.92 billion in 2023. It is projected to grow to nearly $74.87 billion by 2030, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% from 2024 to 2030. Another estimate valued the global financial guarantee market at $39.1 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach $87.9 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 9.42% from 2026 to 2033.
U.S. Municipal Bond Insurance Market: The market for municipal bond insurance in the U.S. saw significant activity, with municipal debt backed by insurance climbing by 12.4% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in the previous year. The two leading bond insurers collectively guaranteed $22.1 billion in issuance during the first half of 2025. In 2023, municipal bond insurance grew by 10.4%, with the top two municipal bond insurers covering $31.845 billion. The insured share of total municipal issuance in the U.S. reached approximately 7.9% in the first half of 2025. The total outstanding U.S. municipal bond market was about $4.4 trillion as of the third quarter of 2025.

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MBIA Inc. (MBI) is positioned for future revenue generation and growth primarily through the following drivers:

Increased Bond Insurance Penetration in Public Finance: MBIA is strategically positioned to capitalize on an expected increase in bond insurance penetration within the public finance market. This trend is anticipated to bolster the company's market presence, potentially leading to new policy issuance and, consequently, higher premium revenue for its U.S. Public Finance Insurance segment.
Optimized Net Investment Income from Capital Redeployment: As MBIA resolves legacy exposures, such as those related to PREPA, and its existing insurance portfolios run off, freed-up capital can be strategically managed and redeployed into investments. Prudent investment decisions are expected to maximize net investment income, a crucial component of the company's overall revenue.
Revenue from Strategic Asset Sales: The company is actively exploring strategic alternatives, including potential asset sales, to maximize shareholder value. Such sales, if executed with "premium valuations," could directly contribute to revenue and enhance the company's financial performance.

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Share Repurchases

MBIA Inc.'s Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program on May 3, 2023, authorizing the company and/or National to purchase up to $100 million of its shares.
As of February 19, 2026, there was $71 million of remaining capacity under the company's share repurchase authorization.
MBIA Inc. did not repurchase any additional shares during 2025, and there were no purchases of MBIA shares during the fourth quarter of 2025.

Share Issuance

On December 7, 2023, the company's Board of Directors declared an extraordinary cash dividend of $8.00 per share on MBIA's common stock.
MBIA Inc. did not pay cash dividends on its common stock during 2025 or 2024.
The company plans to continue seeking approval for additional special dividends from National to MBIA Inc. in future years, though the timing and amount are subject to regulatory approval.

Interactive Breakdown

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Better Bets vs. MBIA (MBI)

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Latest Trefis Analyses

	Title	Date
0	DASHBOARDS
1	Would You Still Hold MBIA Stock If It Fell Another 30%?	10/17/2025
2	Day 9 of Gains Streak for MBIA Stock with 57% Return (vs. 8% YTD) [11/21/2024]	11/21/2024
3	Day 7 of Gains Streak for MBIA Stock with 56% Return (vs. 7.4% YTD) [11/19/2024]	11/19/2024
4	Day 5 of Gains Streak for MBIA Stock with 42% Return (vs. -2.2% YTD) [11/15/2024]	11/15/2024
5	MBIA vs. S&P500 Correlation	10/03/2024
6	MBIA Price Volatility	09/24/2024
7	MBIA Market Price	12/09/2023
8	Why MBIA Stock Moved: MBI Stock Has Gained 29% Since 2022 Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S)	12/05/2023

	Title
0	ARTICLES

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KFRC	Kforce	0.8	38.2%	50.5%
REPL	Replimune	0.2	38.2%	-73.6%
FBYD	Falcons Beyond Global	0.7	28.4%	18.2%
ANAB	AnaptysBio	1.8	27.6%	36.4%
INTC	Intel	409.8	27.6%	129.1%
KNSA	Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International	4.1	26.9%	30.5%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
CAR	Avis Budget	6.4	-74.5%	41.8%
CMPX	Compass Therapeutics	0.3	-64.9%	-65.7%
ERAS	Erasca	2.8	-55.8%	166.1%
VISN	Vistance Networks	2.2	-47.5%	-46.3%
LBRDA	Liberty Broadband	5.7	-28.8%	-16.8%
LBRDK	Liberty Broadband	5.7	-28.7%	-17.3%
CHTR	Charter Communications	22.0	-28.5%	-17.1%
NN	NextNav	2.3	-24.8%	2.0%
YSS	York Space Systems	4.0	-22.8%	-5.0%
RLAY	Relay Therapeutics	2.3	-22.4%	54.0%

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
MXL	MaxLinear	4.5	205.9%	198.4%
AEHR	Aehr Test Systems	2.5	153.5%	308.3%
APLS	Apellis Pharmaceuticals	5.2	141.5%	63.2%
OGN	Organon	3.5	128.1%	86.2%
INBX	Inhibrx Biosciences	2.0	123.8%	65.4%
JBIO	Jade Biosciences	1.3	97.5%	71.4%
SGML	Sigma Lithium	2.3	97.0%	56.3%
INTC	Intel	409.8	96.0%	129.1%
FBYD	Falcons Beyond Global	0.7	84.2%	18.2%
NVTS	Navitas Semiconductor	3.4	82.6%	111.8%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
CMPX	Compass Therapeutics	0.3	-64.7%	-65.7%
REPL	Replimune	0.2	-64.4%	-73.6%
VRDN	Viridian Therapeutics	1.3	-50.3%	-56.3%
VISN	Vistance Networks	2.2	-44.8%	-46.3%
LCID	Lucid	1.9	-37.6%	-44.5%
ERAS	Erasca	2.8	-33.9%	166.1%
BTU	Peabody Energy	3.3	-31.9%	-9.2%
VG	Venture Global	29.8	-30.6%	78.5%
ESPR	Esperion Therapeutics	0.5	-30.3%	-48.4%
SOC	Sable Offshore	1.5	-28.8%	45.7%

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

	MBI	AGO	BLK	IVZ	BEN	Median
Name	MBIA	Assured .	BlackRock	Invesco	Franklin.
Mkt Price	6.11	83.52	1,049.76	25.86	29.46	29.46
Mkt Cap	0.3	3.8	162.8	11.7	15.2	11.7
Rev LTM	80	1,015	24,216	6,377	8,846	6,377
Op Inc LTM	-	-	7,909	-696	1,134	1,134
FCF LTM	38	259	3,552	1,441	874	874
FCF 3Y Avg	-111	256	4,025	1,230	892	892
CFO LTM	38	259	3,927	1,525	956	956
CFO 3Y Avg	-111	256	4,349	1,339	1,043	1,043

Growth & Margins

	MBI	AGO	BLK	IVZ	BEN	Median
Name	MBIA	Assured .	BlackRock	Invesco	Franklin.
Rev Chg LTM	90.5%	23.2%	18.7%	5.1%	1.2%	18.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	165.0%	17.3%	11.0%	1.9%	3.5%	11.0%
Rev Chg Q	-24.3%	40.1%	23.4%	6.2%	3.4%	6.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM	-10.1%	6.4%	5.8%	1.6%	0.9%	1.6%
Op Inc Chg LTM	-	-	4.9%	-183.6%	-0.8%	-0.8%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg	-	-	7.2%	-0.5%	-13.0%	-0.5%
Op Mgn LTM	-	-	32.7%	-10.9%	12.8%	12.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg	-	-	35.0%	-1.4%	14.5%	14.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM	-	-	-1.1%	-28.0%	0.3%	-1.1%
CFO/Rev LTM	47.5%	25.5%	16.2%	23.9%	10.8%	23.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg	-1,052.4%	25.8%	21.3%	22.1%	12.3%	21.3%
FCF/Rev LTM	47.5%	25.5%	14.7%	22.6%	9.9%	22.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg	-1,052.4%	25.8%	19.7%	20.3%	10.6%	19.7%

Valuation

	MBI	AGO	BLK	IVZ	BEN	Median
Name	MBIA	Assured .	BlackRock	Invesco	Franklin.
Mkt Cap	0.3	3.8	162.8	11.7	15.2	11.7
P/S	3.8	3.8	6.7	1.8	1.7	3.8
P/Op Inc	-	-	20.6	-16.8	13.4	13.4
P/EBIT	18.9	5.1	19.8	-39.3	15.0	15.0
P/E	-1.7	7.6	29.3	-41.4	24.7	7.6
P/CFO	8.0	14.8	41.5	7.7	15.9	14.8
Total Yield	-58.4%	13.1%	5.5%	0.8%	8.6%	5.5%
Dividend Yield	0.0%	0.0%	2.1%	3.2%	4.5%	2.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg	-38.1%	6.0%	2.8%	13.4%	7.2%	6.0%
D/E	11.0	0.4	0.1	0.8	0.9	0.8
Net D/E	6.0	-0.2	0.0	0.7	0.7	0.7

Returns

	MBI	AGO	BLK	IVZ	BEN	Median
Name	MBIA	Assured .	BlackRock	Invesco	Franklin.
1M Rtn	9.7%	5.3%	12.4%	11.5%	29.5%	11.5%
3M Rtn	-5.3%	1.0%	-4.6%	-4.0%	17.2%	-4.0%
6M Rtn	-8.9%	3.6%	-5.7%	9.8%	29.9%	3.6%
12M Rtn	33.4%	-3.5%	17.3%	93.1%	66.3%	33.4%
3Y Rtn	39.2%	62.9%	67.8%	73.8%	29.0%	62.9%
1M Excs Rtn	-2.4%	-6.8%	0.3%	-0.6%	17.4%	-0.6%
3M Excs Rtn	-7.6%	-1.3%	-6.9%	-6.3%	14.9%	-6.3%
6M Excs Rtn	-16.4%	-2.9%	-11.8%	9.2%	27.6%	-2.9%
12M Excs Rtn	-0.8%	-31.4%	-11.2%	64.0%	37.2%	-0.8%
3Y Excs Rtn	-43.6%	-9.8%	-7.3%	1.7%	-42.8%	-9.8%

FDIC Bank Data

Bank Capital

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Bank Deposits

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Bank Assets

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Bank Loans

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FDA Approved Drugs Data

Expand for Morenull

Financials

Annual
Quarterly

$ Mil \| FY: 12/31	LTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Period End	12/31/2025	12/31/2025	12/31/2024	12/31/2023	12/31/2022	12/31/2021	12/31/2020
Filing Date	2/26/2026	2/26/2026	2/27/2025	2/28/2024	2/28/2023	2/28/2022	3/1/2021
Key Financials
Total Revenue	80	80	42	7	154	159	282
Net Income	-177	-177	-447	-491	-203	-445	-578
EPS	-3.58	-3.58	-9.43	-10.18	-3.92	-8.99	-9.78
Growth Rates
Total Revenue Growth	90.5%	90.5%	500.0%	-95.5%	-3.1%	-43.6%	0.4%
Net Income Growth	60.5%	60.4%	9.0%	-141.9%	54.4%	23.0%	-61.0%
Margins
Net Income Margin	-221.2%	-221.2%	-1064.3%	-7014.3%	-131.8%	-279.9%	-205.0%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	1,522	1,522	1,504	1,698	2,231	2,691	2,706
Total Debt	3,347	3,347	3,224	3,163	3,103	3,212	3,562
Net Debt / (Cash)	1,825	1,825	1,720	1,465	872	521	856
Cash Flows
Net Cash from Operations	38	38	-176	-195	-418	511	-390
Free Cash from Operations	38	38	-176	-195	-418	510	-390
Returns to Shareholders
Dividends	0	-0	-0	409	-0	-0	-0
Share Repurchases	7	7	4	38	3	1	200

$ Mil \| FY: 12/31	2025Q4	2025Q3	2025Q2	2025Q1	2024Q4	2024Q3	2024Q2	2024Q1	2023Q4	2023Q3	2023Q2	2023Q1
Period End	12/31/2025	9/30/2025	6/30/2025	3/31/2025	12/31/2024	9/30/2024	6/30/2024	3/31/2024	12/31/2023	9/30/2023	6/30/2023	3/31/2023
Filing Date	2/26/2026	11/4/2025	8/6/2025	5/8/2025	2/27/2025	11/7/2024	8/6/2024	5/9/2024	2/28/2024	11/2/2023	8/2/2023	5/9/2023
Key Financials Quarterly
Total Revenue	28	15	23	14	37	29	-37	13	-31	8	28	2
Net Income	-51	-8	-56	-62	-51	-56	-255	-86	-138	-185	-75	-86
EPS	-1.01	-0.17	-1.12	-1.28	-1.06	-1.18	-5.34	-1.84	-2.93	-3.94	-1.46	-1.86
Key Financials TTM
Total Revenue TTM	80	89	103	43	42	-26	-47	18	7	99	108	116
Net Income TTM	-177	-177	-225	-424	-448	-535	-664	-484	-484	-406	-255	-216
Growth Rates Quarterly
Total Revenue Growth	-24.3%	-48.3%	162.2%	7.7%	219.4%	262.5%	-232.1%	550.0%	-150.8%	-52.9%	-22.2%	-95.0%
Net Income Growth	0.0%	85.7%	78.0%	27.9%	63.0%	69.7%	-240.0%	0.0%	-130.0%	-444.1%	-108.3%	-17.8%
Margins Quarterly
Net Income Margin	-182.1%	-53.3%	-243.5%	-442.9%	-137.8%	-193.1%	-	-661.5%	-	-2312.5%	-267.9%	-4300.0%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	1,522	1,574	1,484	1,480	1,504	1,539	1,617	1,619	1,698	2,073	2,314	2,408
Total Debt	3,347	3,348	3,300	3,260	3,224	3,183	3,132	3,133	3,163	3,122	3,185	3,130
Net Debt / (Cash)	1,825	1,774	1,816	1,780	1,720	1,644	1,515	1,514	1,465	1,049	871	722
Cash Flows Quarterly
FCF from Operations	-10	90	1	-43	3	-139	-10	-30	-2	-115	-42	-36
Cash Flows TTM
FCF from Operations TTM	38	51	-178	-189	-176	-181	-157	-189	-195	-751	-728	-727
Returns to Shareholders Quarterly
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Share Repurchases	-0	-0	-0	7	-0	-0	2	2	3	7	24	4
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Quarterly
ROIC	-12.3%	-1.6%	-12.3%	-13.9%	-11.6%	-12.4%	-66.8%	-23.0%	-37.7%	-70.5%	-35.8%	-46.0%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) TTM
ROIC TTM	-9.9%	-9.9%	-12.1%	-23.4%	-25.6%	-32.2%	-43.8%	-32.2%	-33.0%	-33.4%	-23.0%	-21.9%

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance	86	35	83	168	234
Corporate	51	167	69	23	-29
International and Structured Finance Insurance	-43	46	7	197	75
Eliminations	-87	-94		-106
Net gains (losses) on extinguishment of debt		-4
Total	7	150	159	282	280

Net Income by Segment

$ Mil	2025	2023	2022	2021
Eliminations	-1	-1
Corporate	-102	17	-133	-132
United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance	-131	-179	-54	144
International and Structured Finance Insurance	-250	-282	-391	-369
Total	-484	-445	-578	-357

Assets by Segment

$ Mil	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance	1,742	2,491	3,313	3,644	4,019
International and Structured Finance Insurance	974	1,132	2,800	3,671	4,504
Corporate	755	645	873	954	1,041
Assets held for sale	73	80
Eliminations	-938	-973	-2,290	-2,518	-2,280
Total	2,606	3,375	4,696	5,751	7,284

Price Behavior

Price Behavior

Market Price	$6.11
Market Cap ($ Bil)	0.3
First Trading Date	07/02/1987
Distance from 52W High	-24.8%
	50 Days	200 Days
DMA Price	$6.05	$6.68
DMA Trend	up	down
Distance from DMA	0.9%	-8.5%
	3M	1YR
Volatility	35.5%	50.3%
Downside Capture	0.83	0.38
Upside Capture	88.22	80.44
Correlation (SPY)	41.7%	20.7%

MBI Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026

	1M	2M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y
Beta	0.90	0.81	0.62	0.59	0.81	0.94
Up Beta	-2.10	0.15	0.49	0.07	0.67	0.60
Down Beta	0.53	0.57	1.77	1.20	1.08	1.09
Up Capture	70%	65%	-44%	3%	68%	107%
Bmk +ve Days	7	16	27	65	139	424
Stock +ve Days	7	19	29	58	120	363
Down Capture	148%	120%	60%	77%	82%	102%
Bmk -ve Days	12	23	33	58	110	323
Stock -ve Days	14	22	33	64	126	371

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively

Based On 1-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with MBI
MBI	25.8%	50.4%	0.62	-
Sector ETF (XLF)	9.7%	14.7%	0.41	27.6%
Equity (SPY)	31.5%	12.5%	1.92	20.9%
Gold (GLD)	38.6%	27.2%	1.18	3.9%
Commodities (DBC)	45.9%	18.0%	1.95	-9.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)	14.4%	13.4%	0.75	22.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	-19.0%	42.1%	-0.39	7.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Based On 5-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with MBI
MBI	6.9%	65.2%	0.34	-
Sector ETF (XLF)	10.0%	18.7%	0.42	32.8%
Equity (SPY)	12.9%	17.1%	0.59	28.9%
Gold (GLD)	20.2%	17.8%	0.92	-0.6%
Commodities (DBC)	14.8%	19.1%	0.63	6.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)	3.4%	18.8%	0.09	26.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	7.3%	56.2%	0.35	11.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Based On 10-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with MBI
MBI	5.4%	57.6%	0.31	-
Sector ETF (XLF)	12.7%	22.2%	0.53	40.9%
Equity (SPY)	14.9%	17.9%	0.71	35.4%
Gold (GLD)	13.4%	15.9%	0.70	-2.2%
Commodities (DBC)	9.9%	17.7%	0.46	11.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)	5.4%	20.7%	0.23	32.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	67.8%	66.9%	1.07	9.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date	4152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity	1.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 3312026	-2.3%
Average Daily Volume	0.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest	9.7 days
Basic Shares Quantity	49.6 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares	3.9%

Returns Analyses

	Title
0	Would You Still Hold MBIA Stock If It Fell Another 30%?

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

	Forward Returns
Earnings Date	1D Returns	5D Returns	21D Returns
2/26/2026	3.3%	6.0%	-12.1%
8/6/2025	-4.4%	-3.8%	13.2%
5/8/2025	-11.3%	0.4%	-8.7%
2/27/2025	-13.5%	-25.8%	-28.6%
11/7/2024	6.7%	42.0%	45.8%
8/6/2024	-7.6%	-10.8%	-15.0%
5/9/2024	-8.5%	-11.8%	-21.7%
2/28/2024	-5.1%	-6.4%	-1.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	3	7	11
# Negative	20	16	12
Median Positive	6.7%	6.0%	10.3%
Median Negative	-8.1%	-7.0%	-11.1%
Max Positive	15.3%	42.0%	45.8%
Max Negative	-19.0%	-25.8%	-35.5%

	Forward Returns
2/26/2026	3.3%	6.0%	-12.1%
8/6/2025	-4.4%	-3.8%	13.2%
5/8/2025	-11.3%	0.4%	-8.7%
2/27/2025	-13.5%	-25.8%	-28.6%
11/7/2024	6.7%	42.0%	45.8%
8/6/2024	-7.6%	-10.8%	-15.0%
5/9/2024	-8.5%	-11.8%	-21.7%
2/28/2024	-5.1%	-6.4%	-1.7%
11/2/2023	-8.8%	-2.9%	2.5%
8/2/2023	-3.4%	-2.5%	-10.0%
5/9/2023	-17.2%	-16.5%	-9.3%
2/28/2023	-11.2%	-13.5%	-35.5%
11/2/2022	15.3%	17.2%	25.0%
8/3/2022	-15.2%	0.2%	-5.8%
5/9/2022	-3.6%	-1.8%	17.6%
2/28/2022	-19.0%	-8.9%	6.0%
11/3/2021	-3.2%	-13.4%	-28.0%
8/5/2021	-0.8%	1.3%	-8.0%
5/10/2021	-11.7%	-7.2%	4.0%
3/1/2021	-5.9%	31.1%	24.9%
11/9/2020	-4.1%	-6.7%	10.3%
8/5/2020	-2.2%	-2.1%	0.5%
5/11/2020	-9.3%	-5.4%	0.8%
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	3	7	11
# Negative	20	16	12
Median Positive	6.7%	6.0%	10.3%
Median Negative	-8.1%	-7.0%	-11.1%
Max Positive	15.3%	42.0%	45.8%
Max Negative	-19.0%	-25.8%	-35.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report Date	Filing Date	Filing
12/31/2025	02/26/2026	10-K
09/30/2025	11/04/2025	10-Q
06/30/2025	08/06/2025	10-Q
03/31/2025	05/08/2025	10-Q
12/31/2024	02/27/2025	10-K
09/30/2024	11/07/2024	10-Q
06/30/2024	08/06/2024	10-Q
03/31/2024	05/09/2024	10-Q
12/31/2023	02/28/2024	10-K
09/30/2023	11/02/2023	10-Q
06/30/2023	08/02/2023	10-Q
03/31/2023	05/09/2023	10-Q
12/31/2022	02/28/2023	10-K
09/30/2022	11/02/2022	10-Q
06/30/2022	08/03/2022	10-Q
03/31/2022	05/09/2022	10-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: null Earnings Reported 2/26/2026

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Prior: Q3 2023 Earnings Reported 11/2/2023

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Insider Activity

Expand for More

#	Owner	Holding	Action	Filing Date	Price	Shares	Transacted Value	Value of Held Shares	Form
1	Shasta, Theodore	Direct	Sell	8282025	7.90	6,382	50,418	396,153	Form
2	Dewbrey, Diane L	Direct	Sell	8252025	7.15	4,975	35,571	750,872	Form
3	Shasta, Theodore	Direct	Sell	8202025	6.71	8,361	56,102	379,303	Form
4	Shasta, Theodore	Direct	Sell	8142025	6.15	20,000	123,000	399,067	Form
5	Vaughan, Richard C	Direct	Sell	8122025	6.07	25,086	152,272	527,325	Form

MBI Trade Sentinel

Stock Conviction

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CONVICTION RATIONALE

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STOCK ARCHETYPE

null

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.

INVESTMENT THESIS

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Mechanism: null

Supporting Evidence:

PRIMARY RISK

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Mechanism: null

Supporting Evidence:

Key KPI Watchlist

KPI	Threshold	Rationale

Core Investment Debate

BULL VIEW

CORE TENSION

PREVAILING SENTIMENT

BEAR VIEW

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts

Timeline	Event & Metric To Watch

Key Events in Last 6 Months

Date	Event	Stock Impact

Risk Management

Position Sizing

null

Diversification Alternatives

How Is The Market Pricing MBI?

What will confirm the thesis

What will damage the thesis

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Repricing Catalyst

What MBI Makes & Who Pays

TTM figures based on

MBI Evolution: Price Return by Era

① Structure

② Volume / Momentum

③ Catalyst

Combined Score

0 / 12

1 Price Structure & Trend · ▾

2 Momentum ▾

3 Relative Strength vs. SPY ▾

4 Institutional Footprint & Volume ▾

5 Volatility ▾

6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol ▾

7 Earnings Reaction History ▾

8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾

Pillar	Score
① Structure	0
② Vol / Mom	0
③ Catalyst	0

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MBIA (MBI)

Market Price (4/29/2026): $6.1 | Market Cap: $302.6 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Life & Health Insurance

MBIA (MBI)

Market Price (4/29/2026): $6.1Market Cap: $302.6 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Life & Health Insurance

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Market Price (4/29/2026): $6.1 | Market Cap: $302.6 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Life & Health Insurance

Market Price (4/29/2026): $6.1
Market Cap: $302.6 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Life & Health Insurance