Maxeon Solar Technologies (MAXN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.88 | Market Cap: $48.1 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Maxeon Solar Technologies (MAXN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.88Market Cap: $48.1 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, and Renewable Energy Equipment. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -150%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -173% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -460 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -90% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 553% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -55%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -79% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -63% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 2055% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -1116% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, and Renewable Energy Equipment. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -150%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -173% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -460 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -90% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 553% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -55%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -79% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -63% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 2055% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -1116% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MAXN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Maxeon Solar Technologies (MAXN) experienced a significant decline between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, attributed to several key factors. 1. 1. Steep Revenue Decline and U.S. Import Challenges: Maxeon Solar Technologies faced an approximate 89% year-over-year revenue collapse in the first half of 2025, plummeting to around $39 million from approximately $371 million in the first half of 2024. This significant drop was primarily due to U.S. Customs detentions of Maxeon's solar modules under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which severely disrupted its access to the U.S. market. 2. 2. Continued Impact of U.S. Customs & Border Protection (CBP) Actions: The challenges from U.S. Customs & Border Protection's (CBP) exclusion of Maxeon's solar panels from U.S. import, which began in July 2024, continued to significantly impact the company's financial results in the first half of 2025. In April 2025, CBP denied Maxeon's protests regarding these module detentions, indicating an uphill battle for the company's litigation to overturn these restrictions. 3.
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Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MAXN Return | - | -51% | 16% | -55% | -99% | -61% | -100% |
| Peers Return | 46% | 17% | -5% | 13% | -4% | 5% | 85% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MAXN Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 0% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 42% | 32% | 42% | 35% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MAXN Max Drawdown | - | -51% | -42% | -75% | -99% | -66% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -12% | -30% | -12% | -16% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MAXN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -92.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1264.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 148 days |
Compare to QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ
In The Past
Maxeon Solar Technologies's stock fell -92.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -92.7% loss requires a 1264.9% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is Maxeon Solar Technologies Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MAXN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Maxeon Solar Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 86.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| Rev LTM | 626 |
| Op Inc LTM | -16 |
| FCF LTM | 27 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1 |
| CFO LTM | 99 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 85 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -5.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -5.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| P/S | 5.0 |
| P/EBIT | 13.5 |
| P/E | 18.8 |
| P/CFO | 22.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -72.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4302025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 12052024 | 6-K 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 9032024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5302024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 5302024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11152023 | 6-K 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 6-K 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5162023 | 6-K 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3072023 | 20-F 1/1/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 6-K 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8182022 | 6-K 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5262022 | 6-K 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3242022 | 20-F 1/2/2022 |
| 9302021 | 11172021 | 6-K 10/3/2021 |
| 6302021 | 8122021 | 6-K 7/4/2021 |
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