Madison Air Solutions (MAIR)
Market Price (6/5/2026): $43.75 | Market Cap: $21.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
Madison Air Solutions (MAIR)
Market Price (6/5/2026): $43.75Market Cap: $21.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electrification of Everything, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, IoT for Buildings, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% | Key risks[MAIR] key risks include [1] a substantial reduction in pro forma profitability and [2] integration challenges, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electrification of Everything, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, IoT for Buildings, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% |
| Key risks[MAIR] key risks include [1] a substantial reduction in pro forma profitability and [2] integration challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Madison Air Solutions (MAIR) stock has gained about 35% since it went public on 4/16/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Madison Air Solutions experienced a strong initial public offering (IPO) on April 16, 2026, which was the largest U.S. industrial IPO since 1999, pricing at $27.00 per share. The company raised $2.23 billion in its IPO and strategically used $2.66 billion in net proceeds to significantly repay term loans, enhancing its financial flexibility.
2. The company reported robust first-quarter 2026 financial performance, with pro forma net sales of $923.7 million, representing a 33.8% year-over-year increase. This figure surpassed Wall Street's consensus estimate of $847.55 million, demonstrating strong operational performance shortly after its public listing.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MAIR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 10.7% | 20.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | -0.3% | 11.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MAIR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 11.4% | 20.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 15.3% | 11.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MAIR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 29.9% | 20.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 25.0% | 11.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MAIR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 88.3% | 20.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 90.2% | 11.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MAIR Return | - | - | - | - | - | 37% | 37% |
| Peers Return | 58% | -10% | 65% | -3% | 12% | 10% | 183% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MAIR Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 46% | 62% | 48% | 54% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MAIR Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -39% | -25% | -25% | -22% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WMS, WTS, UFPI, GFF, MAIR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
MAIR has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 62 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
MAIR has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Madison Air Solutions (MAIR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The **Carrier** of advanced indoor air quality.
- A **Honeywell** focused on comprehensive indoor air solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Madison Air Solutions (MAIR) provides a range of products focused on indoor air quality and solutions:
- Nortek Data Center Cooling: Systems designed to protect uptime and manage thermal conditions in data centers.
- Nortek Air Solutions: Advanced solutions for purifying air, especially in highly demanding environments like semiconductor fabrication facilities.
- AprilAire’s Healthy Air System: Integrated systems focused on improving residential indoor air quality to enhance family safety and well-being.
- Big Ass Fans: Large-scale fan products that improve workplace productivity, health, and retention through optimized air movement.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Madison Air Solutions (MAIR) primarily sells to other companies, serving various commercial and industrial sectors, though it also maintains a significant presence in the residential market. The provided company description does not disclose the names of its specific customer companies.
Based on the company's description, its major commercial customers operate in the following categories:
- Data Centers: Customers requiring solutions for protecting uptime and managing cooling (e.g., through Nortek Data Center Cooling).
- Semiconductor Fabrication Facilities: Companies needing highly purified air in sensitive manufacturing environments (e.g., through Nortek Air Solutions).
- Workplaces: Businesses focused on improving employee productivity, health, and retention (e.g., with Big Ass Fans).
- Healthcare Facilities: Institutions that require enhanced indoor air quality for health and safety.
- Schools: Educational institutions seeking to improve air quality for students and staff.
In addition to these commercial clients, Madison Air Solutions serves residential customers, primarily targeting families and homeowners with solutions like AprilAire’s Healthy Air System, aimed at improving indoor air quality and safety in homes.
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Jill Wyant, President & CEO
Jill Wyant is the President and Chief Executive Officer of Madison Air, where she is the founding CEO and has been instrumental in transforming the company into a leader in indoor air innovation and growth. Prior to joining Madison Air in 2021, she held several senior leadership positions at Ecolab (NYSE: ECL), including President of Global Regions and Global Healthcare, overseeing a multi-billion dollar P&L and a team of 25,000 employees. Earlier in her career, she held various leadership roles at General Electric. Wyant serves as Vice Chair of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and is on the Board of Directors of Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW). Her career demonstrates a strong track record in driving growth, profitability, operational transformation, and managing large-scale P&Ls and complex M&A. Her involvement with Madison Air, a company grown through acquisitions and linked to Madison Industries (founded by Larry Gies), suggests a pattern of managing companies with private equity backing.
JJ Foley, Chief Financial Officer
JJ Foley serves as the Chief Financial Officer for Madison Air, where he has played a crucial role in shaping the company's financial strategy, leading strategic acquisitions, and fostering a culture of value creation. Before joining Madison Air, Foley held several executive finance positions at General Electric (NYSE: GE), including Senior Director of Investor Relations and Head of Financial Planning & Analysis for GE Aviation, a significant business with over $30 billion in revenue. He also spent six years in GE's Corporate Audit Staff, where he held progressive leadership roles. His experience at Madison Air, which is connected to Madison Industries, indicates a pattern of managing companies with private equity involvement.
Leah Larson, Group President, Air Movement & Heat
Leah Larson is the Group President of Air Movement & Heat for Madison Air and also serves as the CEO of Big Ass Fans. She is recognized for her visionary leadership in transforming brands and driving strategic growth through brand evolution, product innovation, and customer engagement. Previously, she was the CMO for Madison Air, where she repositioned the company as a leader in "Return on Air" across various industries. She also spent over a decade at Ecolab, leading global growth initiatives.
Karin Overstreet, President, Nortek Data Center Cooling
Karin Overstreet is the President of Nortek Data Center Cooling, a key commercial brand under Madison Air Solutions. The company focuses on protecting uptime in data centers with its cooling solutions.
Dale Philippi, President & CEO, Research Products Corporation (AprilAire)
Dale Philippi is the President and CEO of Research Products Corporation, the parent company of AprilAire, a brand acquired by Madison Air in 2025. He joined Madison Air following this acquisition. Over eight years, Philippi led Research Products through a strategic transformation, significantly increasing revenue, profitability, and enterprise value. His leadership, spanning over three decades with Fortune 500 and global consumer and industrial brands like Electrolux AB, Black & Decker, and Ernst & Young Management Consulting, is characterized by driving growth and creating economic value. He has also served as CEO and board member for privately held and private equity-backed companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The primary key risk to Madison Air Solutions (MAIR) is the potential financial impact and integration challenges associated with significant corporate transactions.
The company's pro forma financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025, show a net income of $58.1 million and a net income (loss) margin of 1.7%, which is substantially lower than its reported net income of $124.3 million and a 3.7% net income (loss) margin. This significant reduction in profitability under a pro forma scenario, typically reflecting the impact of major corporate events such as acquisitions or divestitures, indicates potential financial risks related to the integration or ongoing performance of operations following such transactions. The lower pro forma profitability suggests that the adjusted operational structure or recent corporate activities could result in a less favorable financial outcome compared to the reported historical performance.
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Madison Air Solutions (MAIR) estimates its addressable market to be approximately $40 billion in North America. This market encompasses their mission-critical indoor air solutions for both commercial and residential sectors, including offerings for data centers, semiconductor fabrication facilities, residential healthy air systems, and large industrial fans.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Madison Air Solutions (MAIR) is positioned for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several key factors:
- Data Center and AI Infrastructure Expansion: The company benefits significantly from the rapid expansion of data centers and the increasing demand for specialized cooling systems, particularly those supporting surging artificial intelligence (AI) workloads. Madison Air's technologies are crucial for maintaining uptime and optimal performance in these mission-critical environments.
- Modernization and Replacement Demand in Residential and Commercial Markets: A substantial portion of Madison Air's revenue is generated from the ongoing need for replacement and upgrade of existing indoor air systems in both residential and commercial settings. This is fueled by the aging housing stock across North America and the continuous drive for improved air quality, energy efficiency, and operational performance in various facilities.
- Reshoring of Advanced Manufacturing: The trend of advanced manufacturing operations returning to North America creates additional demand for Madison Air's specialized air systems and solutions within industrial facilities, supporting productivity and specific environmental control requirements.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Product Innovation: Madison Air has a history of growth through strategic acquisitions, such as the recent $2.3 billion acquisition of AprilAire, which expands its market reach and technological capabilities. The company's commitment to "differentiated advanced technologies" and innovation in air quality solutions for diverse and demanding environments is expected to drive the launch of new products and services, fostering continued growth.
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Share Issuance
- Madison Air Solutions sold 82.69 million shares of Class A common stock at $27.00 per share in its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on April 15, 2026, raising $2.23 billion.
- The parent company, Madison Industries Holdings, purchased an additional $100 million worth of Class B common stock in a concurrent private placement.
- Underwriters were granted a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 12.4 million shares of Class A common stock.
Inbound Investments
- Cornerstone investors, including Counterpoint Global, Durable Capital Partners LP, and HRTG GPE, LLC, indicated an interest in purchasing up to $525 million of stock in the IPO.
- Madison Industries Holdings, controlled by founder Larry Gies, agreed to buy $100 million of Class B common stock from Madison Air in a concurrent private placement.
- The company was formed through a series of acquisitions by Madison Industries starting in 2017, utilizing a private equity buy-and-build strategy.
Outbound Investments
- Since its inception, Madison Air has deployed over $8 billion into acquisitions to expand its scale and technological capabilities.
Capital Expenditures
- For the year ended December 31, 2025, capital expenditures totaled $37.8 million.
- The company reported a trailing twelve months (TTM) capital expenditure of -$40.60 million.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 85.90 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.3 |
| Rev LTM | 2,804 |
| Op Inc LTM | 471 |
| FCF LTM | 309 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 389 |
| CFO LTM | 458 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 536 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.3 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 14.4 |
| P/EBIT | 17.5 |
| P/E | 26.4 |
| P/CFO | 12.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 25.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 36.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -43.6% |
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/12/2026 | -2.4% | -8.8% | |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -8.8% | |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -2.4% | -8.8% | |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Building Products Resources |
| Building Design+Construction |
| Construction Dive |
| Architectural Record |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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