Mastercard (MA)
Market Price (8/8/2026): $564.0 | Market Cap: $497.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Mastercard (MA)
Market Price (8/8/2026): $564.0Market Cap: $497.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 60% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 35 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -25% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 31x Key risksMA key risks include [1] global legal and regulatory challenges targeting its core interchange fee model and [2] potential disintermediation by emerging payment technologies like digital wallets and real-time payment rails. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 60% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 35 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -25% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 31x |
| Key risksMA key risks include [1] global legal and regulatory challenges targeting its core interchange fee model and [2] potential disintermediation by emerging payment technologies like digital wallets and real-time payment rails. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mastercard (MA) stock has gained about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat: Mastercard reported robust financial results for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 2026), with adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.04, surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.77 by 5.7%. Net revenue also exceeded expectations, reaching $9.28 billion against a forecast of $9.08 billion, representing a 14.1% year-over-year increase. Profit climbed 21.0% in the quarter.
2. Robust Growth in Core Payment Network and Cross-Border Volumes: The company's core payment network demonstrated strong performance, with worldwide gross dollar volume (GDV) increasing 8% year-over-year on a local-currency basis to $2.88 trillion. Crucially, cross-border volume surged 12% in local currency, primarily driven by resilient international travel spending and an increase in card-not-present transactions.
Show more
Mastercard (MA) stock has gained about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat: Mastercard reported robust financial results for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 2026), with adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.04, surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.77 by 5.7%. Net revenue also exceeded expectations, reaching $9.28 billion against a forecast of $9.08 billion, representing a 14.1% year-over-year increase. Profit climbed 21.0% in the quarter.
2. Robust Growth in Core Payment Network and Cross-Border Volumes: The company's core payment network demonstrated strong performance, with worldwide gross dollar volume (GDV) increasing 8% year-over-year on a local-currency basis to $2.88 trillion. Crucially, cross-border volume surged 12% in local currency, primarily driven by resilient international travel spending and an increase in card-not-present transactions.
3. Expansion and Strong Performance of Value-Added Services: Mastercard's diversification strategy proved successful, as revenue from its value-added services and solutions segment grew 20% year-over-year. This growth outpaced the core payment network, highlighting the increasing contribution of these services to the company's overall revenue and profitability.
4. Significant Share Repurchase Program: The company actively returned capital to shareholders through a substantial share repurchase program. Mastercard repurchased $4.9 billion of its stock during fiscal Q2 2026, with an additional $700 million bought back through late July 2026. These buybacks contributed approximately $0.14 to adjusted EPS, enhancing per-share earnings by reducing the outstanding share count.
5. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Raised Price Targets: Following the impressive fiscal Q2 2026 results, numerous financial analysts reiterated "Buy" ratings and increased their price targets for Mastercard stock. This positive sentiment was reflected in an average price target that implied approximately 15% potential upside, indicating strong confidence in the company's continued growth trajectory.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.1% change in MA stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 502.08 | 562.95 | 12.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,939 | 35,083 | 3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 45.9% | 46.3% | 1.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.7 | 30.5 | 6.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 891 | 882 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MA | 12.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.6% | -12.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 10.5% | 52.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.8% change in MA stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 536.97 | 562.95 | 4.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,474 | 35,083 | 11.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 45.3% | 46.3% | 2.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.0 | 30.5 | -10.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 903 | 882 | 2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MA | 4.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.1% | 12.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.3% | 59.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.0% change in MA stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 562.96 | 562.95 | 0.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 30,241 | 35,083 | 16.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 44.9% | 46.3% | 3.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.6 | 30.5 | -18.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 908 | 882 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MA | -0.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.4% | 19.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.3% | 64.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 45.3% change in MA stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 48.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 387.31 | 562.95 | 45.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 23,590 | 35,083 | 48.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 43.4% | 46.3% | 6.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.8 | 30.5 | -14.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 946 | 882 | 7.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 45.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MA | 45.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.9% | 49.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 70.4% | 69.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MA Return | 1% | -3% | 23% | 24% | 9% | 1% | 67% |
| Peers Return | -6% | -21% | 20% | 33% | -18% | -1% | -2% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MA Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 42% | 58% | 63% | 45% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MA Max Drawdown | -22% | -28% | -13% | -12% | -17% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -36% | -21% | -16% | -39% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: V, AXP, PYPL, FISV, GPN. See MA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -17.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 62 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Mastercard's stock fell -15.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | MA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 105 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Mastercard's stock fell -15.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Mastercard (MA)
Mastercard (MA) is a global technology company that serves as a vital intermediary in the electronic payment ecosystem. Its core business involves facilitating the processing of payment transactions, which includes critical steps like authorization, clearing, and settlement. Essentially, Mastercard provides the underlying infrastructure and technology that allows consumers, merchants, and financial institutions to conduct secure and efficient digital transactions worldwide.
Beyond its fundamental transaction processing, Mastercard offers a comprehensive suite of products and value-added services. These include various consumer and commercial credit and debit payment solutions, prepaid card programs, and systems that enable access to funds in deposit and other accounts. The company also provides advanced services such as cyber and intelligence solutions for enhanced security, proprietary data insights, analytics, consulting, loyalty programs, and payment gateway solutions for e-commerce. Furthermore, Mastercard is developing innovative platforms in areas like open banking and digital identity. Its widely recognized brands include MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus.
Mastercard operates internationally, serving a broad and diverse customer base. Its primary clients include financial institutions that issue payment cards, merchants who accept payments, individual account holders (consumers), businesses, and governmental organizations. By offering a robust portfolio of payment-related technologies and services, Mastercard empowers these various entities to participate in and benefit from the global digital economy.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Mastercard is like **Visa**, a global network and technology provider that processes credit and debit card payments between banks and merchants.
- Mastercard is like **AT&T** or **Verizon** for money, building and maintaining the essential global network infrastructure that enables card transactions to flow.
- Mastercard is like **Amazon Web Services (AWS)** for payments, providing the fundamental digital infrastructure and services that power card transactions worldwide.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Payment Transaction Processing: Facilitates the authorization, clearing, and settlement of payment transactions for various stakeholders.
- Credit and Debit Payment Products: Offers a range of solutions for consumers and businesses, including credit, debit, and prepaid programs.
- Value-Added Services:
- Cyber & Intelligence Solutions: Provides security-focused solutions to enable safe and secure transactions.
- Data & Analytics Services: Delivers proprietary insights, analytics, consulting, and test-and-learn services based on payment data.
- Loyalty Solutions: Offers programs and services designed to enhance customer loyalty.
- E-commerce Gateway Solutions: Provides processing and payment gateway services tailored for online merchants.
- Platform Services:
- Open Banking Platforms: Facilitates secure data exchange and interoperability within the financial ecosystem.
- Digital Identity Platforms: Offers services for the verification and management of digital identities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mastercard (MA) primarily sells its payment processing technology, products, and services to other companies and organizations, rather than directly to individual consumers. Its major customers include:
- Financial Institutions: These are banks, credit unions, and other financial entities that issue Mastercard-branded credit, debit, and prepaid cards to consumers and businesses. They also act as acquirers, processing transactions from merchants. Major examples include:
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
- Bank of America Corp. (BAC)
- Citigroup Inc. (C)
- Merchants: Businesses of all sizes that accept Mastercard payments. Mastercard provides the underlying network and processing capabilities that enable merchants to accept payments, and also offers payment gateway solutions for e-commerce merchants.
- Governments and Other Organizations: Mastercard provides payment solutions and services to various government entities and other large organizations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Michael Miebach, Chief Executive Officer
Michael Miebach has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Mastercard since January 2021, and he is also a member of the company's board of directors. He joined Mastercard in 2010 and previously held roles as Chief Product Officer and President. Before his tenure at Mastercard, Miebach gained extensive experience in financial services and payments through senior positions at Citibank, starting his professional career there in 1994, and Barclays Bank. At Mastercard, he initially led operations for the Middle East and Africa region, contributing to financial inclusion efforts. He has been instrumental in expanding Mastercard's offerings from a card-centric business to a broader payment platform encompassing real-time payments, open banking, and digital identity. His leadership includes overseeing acquisitions like Vocalink and Finicity, which expanded Mastercard's payment flows. Miebach is also active on the boards of organizations such as IBM, the World Resources Institute, the American Red Cross, and the Metropolitan Opera. He is also a member of the U.S. Treasury Advisory Committee on Racial Equity and serves on the board of the non-profit Accion.
Sachin Mehra, Chief Financial Officer
Sachin Mehra is the Chief Financial Officer for Mastercard, a role he has held since April 2019. He is a member of the company's Executive Leadership Team and Management Committee. Mehra joined Mastercard in June 2010 and has over 20 years of financial leadership experience. Prior to Mastercard, he held senior treasury and finance positions at Hess Corporation, General Motors, and GMAC, with a career that included international assignments in New York, Singapore, Belgium, and Shanghai. He currently serves on the board of Salesforce.
Jorn Lambert, Chief Product Officer
Jorn Lambert serves as Mastercard's Chief Product Officer, a position he assumed in May 2024, and is a member of the company's Management Committee. He joined Mastercard in 2002 and has held various leadership roles, including Chief Digital Officer (2020–2024), EVP Digital Solutions (2018–2020), EVP Digital Channels (2013–2018), and Group Head, Emerging Payments, Europe (2002–2013). Before joining Mastercard, Lambert spent several years in capital markets, where he held management positions in product development, product management, and corporate strategy. He is responsible for developing innovative and secure payment solutions and leads the Core Payments team, which focuses on advanced payment products and platforms.
Raja Rajamannar, Chief Marketing & Communications Officer, President of Healthcare business
Raja Rajamannar is the Chief Marketing & Communications Officer for Mastercard and also serves as the President of the company's healthcare business. He joined Mastercard in 2013, bringing with him over 30 years of experience as a global executive across diverse industries including consumer packaged goods, financial services, healthcare, payments, and utilities. His previous roles include Chief Transformation Officer at Elevance (formerly Anthem) and Chief Innovation & Marketing Officer at Humana. Rajamannar also held senior management positions at Unilever and Citibank, and notably served as Chairman and CEO of Diners Club, North America, where he led its turnaround. He is the author of "Quantum Marketing" and is President of the World Federation of Advertisers (WFA).
Chiro Aikat, Co-President, United States
Chiro Aikat is the Co-President, United States, for Mastercard. In this role, he oversees U.S. acceptance, which includes merchants, acquirers, governments, processors, and fintechs, as well as the commercial center of excellence and public sector engagement in the U.S. Aikat has been with Mastercard for two decades, playing an integral role in implementing various products and programs across the U.S. market. He previously led the U.S. market development and product and engineering teams, focusing on key initiatives such as Mastercard Instalments, open banking, real-time payments, and cybersecurity services. Early in his career, he was part of the efforts to transition the U.S. market to the EMV chip standard and introduce contactless payments in North America.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Competition and Technological Disruption: Mastercard faces intense competition from established payment networks like Visa, as well as an increasing number of fintech companies, digital wallets, and alternative payment methods. The emergence of new technologies such as real-time payments, blockchain-based solutions, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could disrupt traditional payment rails, potentially reducing the reliance on card-based transactions and impacting Mastercard's transaction volumes and market share.
- Regulatory and Legal Risks: The global payments industry is highly regulated, and Mastercard is subject to a complex and evolving landscape of laws and regulations related to interchange fees, data privacy (e.g., GDPR, CCPA), anti-money laundering, and antitrust. Adverse regulatory changes, increased scrutiny of business practices, or negative outcomes from legal proceedings could lead to significant fines, restrictions on operations, and reduced profitability.
- Cybersecurity and Data Breaches: As a critical facilitator of financial transactions and a holder of vast amounts of sensitive financial and personal data, Mastercard is a prime target for cyberattacks. A significant data breach or cybersecurity incident could lead to severe reputational damage, loss of customer trust, financial penalties from regulators, costly litigation, and a substantial impact on its operational integrity.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs): Many central banks globally are actively exploring or developing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Should these digital currencies gain widespread adoption for retail payments, they could enable direct digital transactions between consumers and merchants, potentially bypassing traditional payment networks for authorization, clearing, and settlement and diminishing Mastercard's intermediary role.
Widespread Adoption of Real-Time Payment Networks: The increasing global adoption and expansion of instant or real-time payment networks (such as FedNow in the United States, UPI in India, and SEPA Instant Credit Transfer in Europe) present an emerging threat. These systems facilitate immediate bank-to-bank transfers, often at lower costs than traditional card networks, which could divert a significant volume of transactions away from Mastercard's proprietary rails, particularly for bill payments, peer-to-peer transfers, and business-to-business transactions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mastercard (symbol: MA) operates in several large addressable markets for its main products and services:
- Payment Processing Solutions: The global payment processing solutions market size was valued at approximately USD 66.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to about USD 198.9 billion by 2034.
- Credit, Debit, and Prepaid Card Payments: The global card payments market, which includes credit, debit, and prepaid cards, was valued at USD 28.6 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 56.4 trillion by 2033. Specifically, the global credit card payments market size was estimated at USD 622.76 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 1,433.49 billion by 2034.
- Cyber and Intelligence Solutions: The global cybersecurity market size was valued at USD 301.91 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 878.48 billion by 2034.
- Open Banking Platforms: The global open banking market size was estimated at USD 31.61 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 135.17 billion by 2030.
- Digital Identity Platforms: The global digital identity solutions market size was expected to be USD 64.44 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 168.75 billion by 2031.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mastercard (MA) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market trends:
- Growth in Core Payment Network Transactions: Mastercard anticipates continued revenue expansion from increases in both domestic and cross-border transaction volumes. This is driven by healthy consumer spending and a surge in cross-border travel, which fuels higher-margin transactions. For instance, cross-border volumes were projected to jump significantly, and switched transactions have shown consistent growth.
- Expansion of Value-Added Services and Solutions: A significant driver of revenue growth comes from the strong demand for Mastercard's value-added services (VAS). These include cyber and intelligence solutions, data analytics, consulting services, loyalty solutions, and digital authentication services. This segment has consistently delivered robust growth and is a key focus for diversification beyond traditional card processing.
- Development of New Payment Flows: Mastercard is actively expanding its reach into new payment areas beyond traditional consumer card transactions. This includes growth in account-to-account (A2A) payments and commercial payment flows, where the company leverages its network to facilitate various business and government transactions.
- Strategic Partnerships and Increased Market Penetration: Forming and renewing strategic partnerships with financial institutions and merchants globally helps drive card issuance, portfolio conversions, and overall transaction volume on Mastercard's network. Examples include major debit portfolio flips and continued expansion of contactless payment penetration.
- Innovation and Pricing for Value: Mastercard's ongoing investment in innovation, such as new digital payment technologies, tokenization, and credit intelligence solutions, enables it to deliver enhanced value to its customers. The company maintains a strategy of pricing its services based on the value delivered, contributing to revenue growth from new offerings and improvements to existing ones.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Mastercard's Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program in December 2025, authorizing the company to repurchase up to $14 billion of its Class A common stock, effective upon completion of the prior $12 billion program.
- As of December 5, 2025, approximately $4.2 billion remained under the previously approved share repurchase program.
- The company's annual share buybacks amounted to $11.727 billion in 2025, $11.035 billion in 2024, and $9.032 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- Mastercard's shares outstanding have consistently declined year-over-year, with a 2.27% decrease in 2025 from 2024, a 2.01% decrease in 2024 from 2023, and a 2.57% decrease in 2023 from 2022, indicating that share repurchases have generally exceeded issuances.
- The net common equity issued/repurchased was -$11.524 billion in 2025, -$10.73 billion in 2024, and -$8.795 billion in 2023.
Outbound Investments
- In September 2024, Mastercard agreed to acquire the cybersecurity company Recorded Future for $2.65 billion, a transaction that closed earlier than expected in Q4 2024. This acquisition aims to enhance the company's cybersecurity and fraud prevention capabilities.
- Mastercard has made other strategic acquisitions to strengthen its value-added services, including Minna Technologies (October 2024), Baffin Bay Networks (March 2023), Dynamic Yield (December 2021), Arcus (November 2021), CipherTrace (September 2021), Aiia (September 2021), and Ekata (April 2021 for $850 million).
Capital Expenditures
- Mastercard's capital expenditures averaged $436.6 million for the fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025.
- Annual capital expenditures were $489 million in 2025, $474 million in 2024, $371 million in 2023, $442 million in 2022, and $407 million in 2021.
- These expenditures primarily focus on supporting the company's strategic initiatives, including investments in digital payments, security, and expanding its value-added services.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| What Wall Street Pushed MA To Explain | 08/08/2026 | |
| Has Mastercard Stock's Core Growth Engine Gone Quiet? | 06/25/2026 | |
| Mastercard Stock Near Crucial Support - Buy Signal? | 06/04/2026 | |
| Mastercard Stock Capital Return Hits $60 Bil | 05/23/2026 | |
| How Much Upside Can MA Stock Deliver? | 05/09/2026 | |
| Mastercard Earnings Notes | 04/29/2026 | |
| Would You Still Hold Mastercard Stock If It Fell 30%? | 10/17/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Has Mastercard Stock’s Core Growth Engine Gone Quiet? | 06/25/2026 | |
| Mastercard Stock And The Number Behind The Worry | 06/23/2026 | |
| Mastercard Stock Pulls Back to Support – Smart Entry? | 06/04/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 06/04/2026 | |
| MA Stock: The Math Behind The Upside | 05/09/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 213.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 141.5 |
| Rev LTM | 34,606 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,282 |
| FCF LTM | 10,819 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 10,236 |
| CFO LTM | 12,456 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,236 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 141.5 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 23.4 |
| P/EBIT | 16.3 |
| P/E | 15.4 |
| P/CFO | 13.3 |
| Total Yield | 5.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payment Solutions | 32,791 | 28,167 | 25,098 | 22,237 | |
| Payment network | 11,943 | ||||
| Value-added services and solutions | 6,941 | ||||
| Total | 32,791 | 28,167 | 25,098 | 22,237 | 18,884 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payment Solutions | 14,968 | 12,874 | 11,195 | 9,930 |
| Total | 14,968 | 12,874 | 11,195 | 9,930 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $562.95 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 496.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/25/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $521.01 | $526.61 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 8.0% | 6.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 23.1% | 22.3% |
| Downside Capture | -74.53 | 23.24 |
| Upside Capture | -3.38 | 18.67 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -6.1% | 19.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.10 | 0.02 | -0.19 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 0.67 |
| Up Beta | -0.35 | 0.39 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.46 | 0.72 |
| Down Beta | 0.74 | 0.26 | 0.38 | 0.76 | 0.55 | 0.78 |
| Up Capture | 90% | 32% | -13% | 10% | 17% | 28% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 25 | 34 | 66 | 127 | 416 |
| Down Capture | -87% | -72% | -105% | 2% | 33% | 79% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 29 | 60 | 125 | 337 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | -0.5% | 22.3% | -0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.3% | 14.6% | 0.57 | 63.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.3% | 12.8% | 1.36 | 18.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 28.5% | 28.4% | 0.87 | -10.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 32.9% | 19.8% | 1.32 | -16.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.8% | 0.72 | 22.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.2% | 42.9% | -1.23 | 6.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 8.5% | 24.0% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 11.4% | 18.4% | 0.48 | 68.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.61 | 63.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.6% | 0.81 | 0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 6.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 49.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.8% | 53.0% | 0.35 | 23.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 20.1% | 26.9% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.6% | 22.1% | 0.56 | 68.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 73.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.2% | 0.61 | 2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.0% | 0.33 | 20.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 56.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.2% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 17.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | 2.5% | 1.3% | |
| 4/30/2026 | -4.2% | -6.3% | -5.9% |
| 1/29/2026 | 4.3% | 6.2% | -0.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -1.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 5.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.3% | 3.3% | 6.8% |
| 1/30/2025 | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.7% | 1.4% | 3.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 2.2% | 6.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -3.1% | -3.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 15.1% | 12.2% |
| Max Negative | -8.1% | -6.8% | -8.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | 2.5% | 1.3% | |
| 4/30/2026 | -4.2% | -6.3% | -5.9% |
| 1/29/2026 | 4.3% | 6.2% | -0.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -1.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 5.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.3% | 3.3% | 6.8% |
| 1/30/2025 | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.7% | 1.4% | 3.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.6% | 0.2% | 5.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | -2.0% | 0.4% | -2.0% |
| 1/31/2024 | 0.9% | 3.4% | 6.6% |
| 10/26/2023 | -5.6% | -2.2% | 6.8% |
| 7/27/2023 | -2.0% | -3.1% | -1.2% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| 1/26/2023 | -1.3% | -2.2% | -7.7% |
| 10/27/2022 | -0.0% | 0.1% | 9.9% |
| 7/28/2022 | 2.7% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| 4/28/2022 | 4.8% | 1.9% | -3.2% |
| 1/27/2022 | 1.7% | 15.1% | 7.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | -0.8% | -1.9% | -3.4% |
| 7/29/2021 | 1.4% | -4.0% | -8.0% |
| 4/29/2021 | -1.7% | -6.7% | -8.5% |
| 1/28/2021 | 2.8% | 5.5% | 12.2% |
| 10/28/2020 | -8.1% | -6.8% | 7.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 2.2% | 6.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -3.1% | -3.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 15.1% | 12.2% |
| Max Negative | -8.1% | -6.8% | -8.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/12/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/14/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/29/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/6/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sachin, J. Mehra | Chief Business Officer | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 571.87 | 3,000 | 1,715,602 | 23,398,571 | Form |
| 2 | Miebach, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 575.00 | 15,372 | 8,838,900 | 53,873,315 | Form |
| 3 | Kirkpatrick, Linda Pistecchia | Chief Services Officer | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 570.31 | 4,280 | 2,440,915 | 17,781,639 | Form |
| 4 | Miebach, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 580.00 | 16,628 | 9,644,240 | 63,257,538 | Form |
| 5 | Miebach, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 567.68 | 16,628 | 9,439,383 | 65,805,875 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sachin, J. Mehra | Chief Business Officer | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 571.87 | 3,000 | 1,715,602 | 23,398,571 | Form |
| 2 | Miebach, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 575.00 | 15,372 | 8,838,900 | 53,873,315 | Form |
| 3 | Kirkpatrick, Linda Pistecchia | Chief Services Officer | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 570.31 | 4,280 | 2,440,915 | 17,781,639 | Form |
| 4 | Miebach, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 580.00 | 16,628 | 9,644,240 | 63,257,538 | Form |
| 5 | Miebach, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 567.68 | 16,628 | 9,439,383 | 65,805,875 | Form |
| 6 | McLaughlin, Edward Grunde | President & CTO, MA Tech | Direct | Sell | 7152026 | 534.87 | 19,800 | 10,590,347 | 20,720,387 | Form |
| 7 | Arkell, Sandra A | Controller | Direct | Sell | 7152026 | 540.00 | 144 | 77,760 | 1,500,103 | Form |
| 8 | Arkell, Sandra A | Controller | Direct | Sell | 7152026 | 540.00 | 200 | 108,000 | 1,577,863 | Form |
| 9 | Arkell, Sandra A | Controller | Direct | Sell | 7082026 | 540.00 | 200 | 108,000 | 1,685,863 | Form |
| 10 | Arkell, Sandra A | Controller | Direct | Sell | 7082026 | 540.00 | 200 | 108,000 | 1,793,863 | Form |
| 11 | Seshadri, Raj | Chief Commercial Pmts Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 529.73 | 1,977 | 1,047,276 | 8,703,109 | Form |
| 12 | Seshadri, Raj | Chief Commercial Pmts Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 525.00 | 4,828 | 2,534,700 | 8,625,398 | Form |
| 13 | McLaughlin, Edward Grunde | President & CTO, MA Tech | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 525.19 | 14,260 | 7,489,187 | 20,345,481 | Form |
| 14 | Ling, Hai | President, AP, Europe, MEA | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 495.71 | 4,485 | 2,223,269 | 12,723,796 | Form |
| 15 | Ling, Hai | President, AP, Europe, MEA | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 502.69 | 4,486 | 2,255,045 | 12,902,774 | Form |
| 16 | Sachin, J. Mehra | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 591.00 | 17,263 | 10,202,458 | 18,459,102 | Form |
| 17 | Ling, Hai | President, AP, Europe, MEA | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 600.00 | 4,485 | 2,691,000 | 15,507,424 | Form |
| 18 | Sachin, J. Mehra | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 586.89 | 17,816 | 10,456,016 | 18,330,657 | Form |
| 19 | Sachin, J. Mehra | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 566.46 | 6,758 | 3,828,164 | 17,692,711 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 8, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valley Forge Capital Management, LP | $743.2 Mil | 22.0% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Akre Capital Management LLC | $1.1 Bil | 18.6% | 19 | TRIM -24.1% | 13F |
| Spinecap SAS | $36.1 Mil | 13.3% | 15 | ADD +106.0% | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $62.3 Mil | 11.8% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $89.7 Mil | 11.7% | 10 | ADD +94.7% | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $164.9 Mil | 10.9% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Atalan Capital Partners, LP | $117.2 Mil | 10.8% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $88.9 Mil | 10.6% | 24 | TRIM -18.8% | 13F |
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $675.8 Mil | 10.3% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| XXEC, Inc. | $57.8 Mil | 10.1% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Metropolis Capital Ltd | $290.8 Mil | 9.8% | 16 | ADD +23.7% | 13F |
| Torque Asset Management LLC | $24.6 Mil | 9.7% | 12 | TRIM -12.3% | 13F |
| Park Presidio Capital LLC | $135.6 Mil | 9.5% | 13 | ADD +31.7% | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $34.0 Mil | 9.1% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $1.2 Bil | 8.8% | 27 | ADD +30.5% | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $122.8 Mil | 8.0% | 10 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| Styrax Capital, LP | $112.4 Mil | 7.9% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| BLS Capital Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S | $224.2 Mil | 7.6% | 11 | ADD +7.5% | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $132.4 Mil | 7.6% | 27 | TRIM -45.4% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $78.2 Mil | 7.1% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Gavilan Investment Partners LLC | $24.7 Mil | 6.6% | 14 | ADD +6.5% | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $31.2 Mil | 6.5% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $904.6 Mil | 6.4% | 44 | ADD +6.7% | 13F |
| Altarock Partners LP | $261.2 Mil | 6.3% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| L1 Capital International Pty Ltd | $101.1 Mil | 6.0% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXEC, Inc. | $57.8 Mil | 10.1% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Two Creeks Capital Management, LP | $45.3 Mil | 4.8% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Maestria Partners LLC | $15.5 Mil | 5.7% | 13 | New | 13F |
| Spinecap SAS | $36.1 Mil | 13.3% | 15 | ADD +106.0% | 13F |
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $89.7 Mil | 11.7% | 10 | ADD +94.7% | 13F |
| Park Presidio Capital LLC | $135.6 Mil | 9.5% | 13 | ADD +31.7% | 13F |
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $1.2 Bil | 8.8% | 27 | ADD +30.5% | 13F |
| Metropolis Capital Ltd | $290.8 Mil | 9.8% | 16 | ADD +23.7% | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $122.8 Mil | 8.0% | 10 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $106.8 Mil | 5.1% | 29 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| BLS Capital Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S | $224.2 Mil | 7.6% | 11 | ADD +7.5% | 13F |
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $904.6 Mil | 6.4% | 44 | ADD +6.7% | 13F |
| Gavilan Investment Partners LLC | $24.7 Mil | 6.6% | 14 | ADD +6.5% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $67.7 Mil | 5.0% | 31 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| GCQ FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY Ltd | $51.5 Mil | 7.1% | 10 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Cypress Funds LLC | $42.7 Mil | 7.1% | 14 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Hillman Co | $39.6 Mil | 13.7% | 16 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| America First Investment Advisors, LLC | $25.4 Mil | 4.6% | 42 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| J. Stern & Co. LLP | $59.3 Mil | 5.7% | 49 | TRIM -99.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| BlueSpruce Investments, LP | $35.2 Mil | 5.6% | 10 | TRIM -83.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $132.4 Mil | 7.6% | 27 | TRIM -45.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Akre Capital Management LLC | $1.1 Bil | 18.6% | 19 | TRIM -24.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $88.9 Mil | 10.6% | 24 | TRIM -18.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Vulcan Value Partners, LLC | $191.5 Mil | 5.1% | 33 | TRIM -14.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Torque Asset Management LLC | $24.6 Mil | 9.7% | 12 | TRIM -12.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $12.5 Mil | 4.3% | 28 | TRIM -9.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $70.8 Mil | 4.6% | 31 | TRIM -6.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $73.5 Mil | 5.1% | 49 | TRIM -5.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $1.2 Bil | 8.8% | 27 | ADD +30.5% | 13F |
| Akre Capital Management LLC | $1.1 Bil | 18.6% | 19 | TRIM -24.1% | 13F |
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $904.6 Mil | 6.4% | 44 | ADD +6.7% | 13F |
| Valley Forge Capital Management, LP | $743.2 Mil | 22.0% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $675.8 Mil | 10.3% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Mirova US LLC | $478.5 Mil | 5.4% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Marshfield Associates | $299.9 Mil | 6.0% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| Metropolis Capital Ltd | $290.8 Mil | 9.8% | 16 | ADD +23.7% | 13F |
| Altarock Partners LP | $261.2 Mil | 6.3% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| BLS Capital Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S | $224.2 Mil | 7.6% | 11 | ADD +7.5% | 13F |
| Vulcan Value Partners, LLC | $191.5 Mil | 5.1% | 33 | TRIM -14.7% | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $164.9 Mil | 10.9% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Park Presidio Capital LLC | $135.6 Mil | 9.5% | 13 | ADD +31.7% | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $132.4 Mil | 7.6% | 27 | TRIM -45.4% | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $122.8 Mil | 8.0% | 10 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| Atalan Capital Partners, LP | $117.2 Mil | 10.8% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Styrax Capital, LP | $112.4 Mil | 7.9% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $106.8 Mil | 5.1% | 29 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| L1 Capital International Pty Ltd | $101.1 Mil | 6.0% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $89.7 Mil | 11.7% | 10 | ADD +94.7% | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $88.9 Mil | 10.6% | 24 | TRIM -18.8% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $78.2 Mil | 7.1% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $73.5 Mil | 5.1% | 49 | TRIM -5.7% | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $70.8 Mil | 4.6% | 31 | TRIM -6.9% | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $62.3 Mil | 11.8% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
MA Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is high, based on an accelerating, high-margin services business that grew 18% in the latest quarter. This growth is reinforced by major new contracts expected to add trillions in future volume, validating the company's competitive strength. A vast opportunity in digitizing payments provides a durable, long-term runway for continued compounding.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Toll Road with a Services UpsellRevenue ≈ (Gross Dollar Volume x Blended Assessment Rate) + (Switched Transactions x Blended Fee) + (Value-Added Services Revenue) - (Rebates & Incentives) The primary driver of margin expansion is the increasing mix of high-margin, scalable Value-Added Services revenue on top of the operating leverage inherent in the core payments network.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Mastercard is successfully evolving from a payment network into a data and technology services company.
- Value-Added Services revenue grew 18% in Q2 2026, outpacing the network's 8% growth.
- Operating margin reached a five-year peak of 59.8%.
- Recent deal wins are expected to drive trillions of dollars in incremental volume.
- Management raised 2026 revenue guidance, expecting to be higher within the prior range.
- The company is demonstrating pricing power, with assessment growth outpacing volume growth.
PRIMARY RISK
The company remains smaller and less profitable than its primary competitor, while overall revenue growth has decelerated for two consecutive quarters from 17.6% to 14.1%.
- Quarterly revenue growth has slowed from 17.6% to 14.1% over the past two quarters.
- Operating margin of 59.8% trails its primary peer's 65.6%.
- Accounts receivable grew 20.6% in Q2, outpacing revenue growth of 14.1%.
- The stock has returned 3.0% over the last twelve months, underperforming the S&P 500.
- Governments promoting local payment networks present a long-term structural threat.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Dollar Volume (GDV) Growth | 8% year-over-year growth in Q2 2026 (local currency basis) - Stable | Gross Dollar Volume growth has been stable in the high-single-digits, showing a slight acceleration in the most recent quarter. This growth reflects healthy underlying consumer and business spending. |
| Switched Transactions Growth | 9% year-over-year growth in Q2 2026 - Stable | Switched Transactions growth has remained robust in the high-single-digit to low-double-digit range. The Q1 2026 growth rate was 10% when excluding the impact of the a business partner debit portfolio migration, suggesting underlying stability. |
| Cross-border Volume Growth (Local Currency) | 12% (Q2 2026) | Tracks the growth of spending where the merchant country and card issuance country are different. It is a key indicator of high-margin international travel and e-commerce activity. |
| Value-added services and solutions Net Revenue Growth (Currency-Neutral) | 18% (Q2 2026) | Indicates the growth of the company's strategic services portfolio, a key pillar of its long-term growth algorithm and a major differentiator versus competitors. |
Services acceleration vs. core deceleration
BULL VIEW
The 18% growth in Value-Added Services is a durable, structural shift that will drive margins and re-rate the stock as a technology company, making the core network's cyclical fluctuations less important.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating services revenue (18% growth) and new contract wins offset the recent deceleration in overall revenue growth, which prompted a negative market reaction in April?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bull view. Management's decision to effectively raise full-year 2026 revenue guidance suggests confidence that strong services performance and new deal flow will sustain strong results.
BEAR VIEW
The services business is not large enough to offset a continued slowdown in the core payments network, evidenced by two quarters of decelerating total revenue growth, from 17.6% to 14.1%.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
later this year | Open USD Launch Watch: The Open USD stablecoin is set to go live. |
10/23/2026 | Peer Growth Headwinds Watch: American Express's Q3 earnings report for commentary on premium consumer spending and travel trends, which are leading indicators for Mastercard. |
10/27/2026 | Peers FISV PYPL Earnings Watch: Peers Fiserv (FISV) and PayPal (PYPL) are scheduled to report earnings. |
10/28/2026 | Geopolitical Impact on Cross-Border Volume Watch: Management commentary on cross-border travel trends and any quantification of impacts from geopolitical instability in the Q3 earnings report. |
10/28/2026 | Continued Revenue Deceleration Watch: The Q3 year-over-year revenue growth rate reported on the next earnings call, to see if the decelerating trend continues. |
11/2/2026 | Peer GPN Earnings Watch: Peer Global Payments (GPN) is scheduled to report earnings. |
November 2026 | Debt Maturity Event Watch: A $750 million principal amount of the 2016 USD Notes is scheduled to mature. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-03 | BVNK Acquisition Completed Details: Mastercard announced it completed its acquisition of BVNK to advance global stablecoin capabilities. | -0.3% $573.10 -> $571.10 |
2026-07-30 | Q2 2026 Earnings Report Details: The company reported Q2 2026 net revenues up 12% and adjusted net income up 16% year-over-year on a non-GAAP currency-neutral basis. | +1.7% $563.32 -> $573.10 |
2026-05-27 | BitLicense Granted by NYDFS Details: Mastercard Transaction Services (U.S.) LLC was granted a BitLicense by the New York State Department of Financial Services. | +0.2% $492.18 -> $492.92 |
2026-04-30 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Details: The company reported Q1 2026 net revenue growth of 12% and net income up 15% on a year-over-year non-GAAP currency-neutral basis. | -5.7% $524.35 -> $494.63 |
2026-03-16 | TRON Joins Crypto Partner Program Details: TRON joined the Mastercard Crypto Partner Program, reflecting a shared belief in accelerating decentralization through blockchain technology. | +1.7% $496.30 -> $504.86 |
2026-01-29 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: The company reported Q4 2025 net revenues up 15% and value-added services net revenue up 22% year-over-year on a non-GAAP currency-neutral basis. | +3.3% $519.60 -> $536.97 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: MA trades at roughly 24% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (1.8x the market), around the 68th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
V - Visa
Market LeaderVisa offers greater scale, with 1.3 times Mastercard's revenue, and superior profitability, with a 65.6% operating margin compared to Mastercard's 59.8%.
AXP - American Express
Premium Consumer FocusAmerican Express operates a closed-loop network focused on a premium, fee-paying customer base, providing direct exposure to high-end consumer spending and travel trends.
A global payment toll-road operator that is successfully building a high-growth, data-driven services business on top of its core network infrastructure.
Mastercard's core business is a highly profitable toll-road on global commerce. The primary growth narrative, however, is the 'virtuous cycle': scaling payment transactions provides proprietary data that fuels a differentiated, fast-growing suite of value-added services in security, analytics, and loyalty. These services, in turn, make the core payment offering stickier and help win new volume, creating a self-reinforcing growth loop.
Sustained double-digit growth in Value-Added Services, major portfolio wins specifically attributed to the strength of the services offering, and successful monetization of new platforms like Agentic Commerce and stablecoin infrastructure.
A material slowdown in Value-Added Services growth, significant client losses to competitors like Visa on major portfolios, or broad regulatory actions that dismantle the four-party network model or restrict data usage.
Short-term fluctuations in quarterly cross-border travel metrics, foreign exchange volatility, or market reactions to individual peer earnings reports.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's increasing appreciation for the durability and growth rate of the Value-Added Services portfolio, and the successful execution and integration of strategic acquisitions like BVNK to establish a foothold in emerging payment ecosystems like stablecoins.
Payment Solutions
$33.9B TTM (100% of Total)What It Is
This segment encompasses Mastercard's two primary revenue categories: the 'Payment network' and 'Value-added services and solutions'. The Payment network provides transaction switching (authorization, clearing, settlement) for issuers and acquirers globally. Value-added services include security solutions, data analytics, business insights, loyalty programs, and consulting sold to financial institutions, merchants, governments, and digital partners.
Who Pays & How
Financial institutions (issuers and acquirers) are the primary customers, paying fees to participate in the global four-party payment network. They choose Mastercard for its global acceptance, brand trust, consumer protections, and advanced digital and security capabilities that help them compete and grow their own businesses.
Competition
Mastercard — Investor Video Playlist









Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services Resources |
| PYMNTS |
| Payments Dive |
| The Paypers |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.
