Linde (LIN)
Market Price (5/5/2026): $494.4 | Market Cap: $229.4 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Industrial Gases
Linde (LIN)
Market Price (5/5/2026): $494.4Market Cap: $229.4 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Industrial Gases
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.1 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 13 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Advanced Materials, and Water Infrastructure. Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -34% | Key risksLIN key risks include [1] execution challenges and potential cost overruns for its large-scale engineering projects, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.1 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 13 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Advanced Materials, and Water Infrastructure. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -34% |
| Key risksLIN key risks include [1] execution challenges and potential cost overruns for its large-scale engineering projects, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Consistent Earnings Beats and Strong Outlook.
Linde reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.20 for the fourth quarter of 2025, surpassing analyst estimates by $0.02, with revenues reaching $8.76 billion against an $8.64 billion consensus. This strong performance continued into the first quarter of 2026, with adjusted EPS of $4.33, beating estimates of $4.27 by $0.06, and sales of $8.781 billion, exceeding the $8.666 billion consensus. The company also provided an optimistic full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $17.60 to $17.90, representing 7% to 9% growth.
2. Robust Revenue Growth Driven by Key Markets.
Linde's first-quarter 2026 sales increased 8% year-over-year to $8.781 billion, with underlying sales growing 3% due to 2% higher pricing and 1% higher volumes, primarily from new project start-ups. This growth was particularly strong in the Americas, where sales were up 10% (6% underlying), and in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region, with sales up 11% (6% underlying), driven by demand in the electronics, manufacturing, metals and mining, and chemicals and energy end markets.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.4% change in LIN stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 455.44 | 493.55 | 8.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,504 | 34,655 | 3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.2% | 20.4% | -3.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.1 | 32.3 | 7.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 469 | 464 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.4% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LIN | 8.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | -4.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 3.3% | 39.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.8% change in LIN stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 415.37 | 493.55 | 18.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,504 | 34,655 | 3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.2% | 20.4% | -3.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.5 | 32.3 | 17.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 469 | 464 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LIN | 18.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 5.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 19.4% | 47.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.4% change in LIN stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 447.20 | 493.55 | 10.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,005 | 34,655 | 5.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.9% | 20.4% | 2.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.4 | 32.3 | -0.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 476 | 464 | 2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LIN | 10.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 18.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | 23.1% | 55.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.9% change in LIN stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 51.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 355.37 | 493.55 | 38.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,346 | 34,655 | 3.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.5% | 20.4% | 51.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 38.9 | 32.3 | -16.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 492 | 464 | 6.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LIN | 38.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 46.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 33.4% | 68.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LIN Return | 33% | -4% | 28% | 3% | 3% | 20% | 107% |
| Peers Return | 15% | -9% | 12% | 2% | -9% | 38% | 50% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 6% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LIN Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 52% | 45% | 48% | 53% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LIN Max Drawdown | -8% | -23% | -6% | -2% | -6% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -27% | -7% | -21% | -34% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: APD, GTLS, LYB, DOW, DD. See LIN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 466 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Linde's stock fell -10.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 11.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | LIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 140 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 466 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -47.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 511 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Linde's stock fell -10.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 11.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Linde (LIN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
It's like the 'Intel Inside' for industrial processes, supplying essential gases like oxygen and hydrogen that are critical, though often unseen, components in countless industries, from healthcare to manufacturing.
Think of it as a global utility company, but instead of electricity or water, Linde delivers crucial industrial gases and the specialized plants to produce them, serving diverse industries worldwide.
Imagine it as a specialized 'BASF' or 'DuPont' for industrial gases, providing foundational chemical inputs and the engineering expertise to build the facilities for nearly every major industry.
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```html- Atmospheric Gases: These include industrial gases like oxygen, nitrogen, argon, and rare gases, extracted from the atmosphere for various industrial applications.
- Process Gases: These are specialized gases such as carbon dioxide, helium, hydrogen, electronic gases, specialty gases, and acetylene, utilized in specific industrial and manufacturing processes.
- Engineering and Construction Services: Linde designs and constructs turnkey process plants, including facilities for olefin, natural gas, air separation, hydrogen, and synthesis gas, for both third-party clients and its internal gas businesses.
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```htmlLinde plc (LIN) primarily sells its industrial gases and engineering services to other companies (B2B) across a wide range of industries. While specific customer contracts are proprietary, based on the industries Linde serves, its major customers are likely large corporations within those sectors that require significant quantities of atmospheric and process gases, or specialized engineering plants.
Examples of major customers could include:
- ArcelorMittal (MT) - A leading global steel and mining company, a major consumer in the steel making industry.
- Pfizer Inc. (PFE) - A global pharmaceutical and biotechnology corporation, representing the healthcare and chemicals sectors.
- The Coca-Cola Company (KO) - A multinational beverage corporation, a significant user of carbon dioxide for beverage carbonation.
- Intel Corporation (INTC) - A leading semiconductor manufacturer, requiring high-purity electronic gases for chip production.
- Boeing (BA) - A multinational aerospace corporation, using industrial gases for manufacturing and welding in the aerospace industry.
- Dow Inc. (DOW) - A major global chemical company, a substantial consumer of various industrial gases and engineering solutions in the chemicals sector.
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Sanjiv Lamba, Chief Executive Officer & Chairman of the Board of Directors
Sanjiv Lamba became Chairman of the Board of Directors in January 2026 and has served as CEO of Linde plc since March 2022, when he also joined the Board. Prior to his appointment as CEO, he was Chief Operating Officer from January 2021 to February 2022 and Executive Vice President, APAC from 2018 to 2020. Mr. Lamba began his career with BOC India in 1989 in Finance, and later served as Director of Finance and Managing Director for the India business in 2001. Throughout his career with BOC/Linde, he has worked across various geographies, including India, the UK, Singapore, and Germany, where he was a member of the Executive Board of Linde AG. He currently serves as Co-Chair of the Hydrogen Council and is a member of the Business Council.
Matt White, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Matt White is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Linde plc. He previously held the position of Senior Vice President and CFO at Praxair. Mr. White joined Praxair in 2004 as Finance Director for the North American Industrial Gases business unit. He later served as Vice President and Controller of Praxair, Inc. in 2008, Vice President and Treasurer in 2010, and President of Praxair Canada in 2011. Before his time at Praxair, Mr. White held roles at Fisher Scientific and GenTek. He is a Certified Public Accountant and a CFA charter holder. In December 2025, Mr. White joined the Board of Directors of Stoke Space, representing Industrious Ventures, a deep-tech venture firm.
Sean Durbin, Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer
Sean Durbin serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer for Linde plc.
Guillermo Bichara, Executive Vice President & Chief Legal Officer
Guillermo Bichara is the Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Linde plc.
Desiree Bacher, Senior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer
Desiree Bacher holds the position of Senior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer at Linde plc.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Linde plc (LIN) include macroeconomic and regulatory factors, volatile energy costs, and the risks associated with technological disruption and the transition to green hydrogen.
1. Macroeconomic and Regulatory Risks
Linde's operations are significantly exposed to macroeconomic factors and regulatory changes across various global jurisdictions. This includes volatility in credit markets, which can impact financing costs and access to capital, as well as shifts in environmental and trade laws that could affect profitability and competitive positioning. Weakening economic conditions and global industrial slowdowns, particularly in major markets such as China and Europe, can directly reduce the demand for industrial gases, thereby impacting the company's financial results and cash flows.
2. Volatile Energy Costs
Energy constitutes the most substantial cost in the production and distribution of industrial gases for Linde. Although the company employs mechanisms like pricing formulas and cost pass-through arrangements to mitigate price fluctuations, the unpredictable nature of energy prices poses a notable risk to Linde's cost structure and profit margins. Sustained increases in energy and raw material costs, if not fully offset by price adjustments, could compress the company's industry-leading operating margins.
3. Technological Disruption and Green Hydrogen Transition
The industrial gas industry is subject to ongoing technological evolution, and Linde faces the risk of its offerings becoming obsolete if it fails to keep pace with these changes. A specific and significant aspect of this risk is the expensive transition to green hydrogen projects. While Linde is investing in clean energy initiatives, a slower-than-anticipated growth in the clean energy economy could lead to lower returns on these substantial investments.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Linde's main products and services:
- Industrial Gases (Overall): The global industrial gases market was valued at USD 119.42 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach approximately USD 209.42 billion by 2035.
- Oxygen: The global oxygen market was valued at USD 87.86 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 131.70 billion by 2034.
- Nitrogen: The nitrogen market accounted for 43.3% of the air separation unit market revenue in 2025.
- Argon: The global argon market size was valued at USD 19.02 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 34.97 billion by 2032.
- Carbon Dioxide: The global carbon dioxide market size was valued at USD 11.90 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 16.30 billion by 2034.
- Helium: The global helium market size was valued at USD 5.42 billion in 2025 and is forecasted to hit USD 9.47 billion by 2032.
- Hydrogen: The global hydrogen market size was valued at USD 262.13 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 556.56 billion by 2034.
- Electronic Gases: The global electronic specialty gases market size was estimated at USD 15.98 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 23.66 billion by 2035.
- Specialty Gases: The global specialty gas market size was valued at USD 14.96 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 32.75 billion by 2034.
- Acetylene: The global acetylene market size was valued at US$ 7.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach US$ 11.3 billion by 2036.
- Air Separation Units (Plants): The global air separation unit market was valued at USD 6.1 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to USD 9.3 billion by 2034.
- Hydrogen Generation Plants: The hydrogen generation market size is projected to hit USD 285.3 billion by 2035.
- Olefin, Natural Gas, and Synthesis Gas Plants: null
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Linde plc (LIN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Execution of a Robust Project Backlog, Particularly in Clean Energy and Electronics: Linde has a record project backlog of approximately $10 billion, with a significant portion dedicated to clean energy and electronics projects. Around $2.5 billion to $3 billion of these projects are anticipated to commence operations and contribute to revenue in 2026. This backlog represents stable, long-term revenue streams, with substantial investments in clean hydrogen production and infrastructure, as well as demand for high-end chip production and electronics-grade gases globally.
- Expanding Presence in the Commercial Space Industry: Linde is actively strengthening its leadership in the rapidly growing U.S. commercial space sector. The company has secured new long-term agreements to supply industrial gases for rocket launches and is making significant investments in its facilities in Florida and Texas to support this expansion. This segment is projected to deliver double-digit growth over the next few years, adding 50-100 basis points of volume growth annually in the medium term.
- Continued Leverage of Pricing Power and Productivity Initiatives: Linde has consistently demonstrated its pricing power and resilience, successfully offsetting volume weakness in some markets through strategic pricing. The company also focuses on ongoing productivity initiatives and cost control programs to expand its operating margins. These disciplined strategies are expected to contribute to steady revenue and earnings growth.
- Strategic Growth in High-Demand End Markets and Geographic Expansion: Linde is strategically investing in high-growth sectors such as electronics (including battery production for electric vehicles), healthcare, and specialized manufacturing. The company is also focusing its expansion efforts in the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions, aiming to increase its network density through solutions like small on-site plants. This diversified approach helps capture growth opportunities across various industries and geographies.
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Share Repurchases
- On February 28, 2022, Linde authorized a new share repurchase program for up to $10 billion of its ordinary shares, replacing a completed $5 billion program from January 2021. This program permitted the acquisition of up to 15% of outstanding shares between March 1, 2022, and July 31, 2024.
- A new share repurchase program for up to $15 billion was approved on October 23, 2023, bringing the total available for repurchases to $17 billion, including $2 billion remaining from the previous authorization.
- Linde returned $4.6 billion to shareholders through net share buybacks in 2025. The annual share repurchases were $3.958 billion in 2023, $4.482 billion in 2024, and $4.601 billion in 2025.
Share Issuance
- Linde did not issue new ordinary shares in 2022, 2023, or 2024.
- The company's shares outstanding have seen a decline due to repurchase programs, with 2025 shares outstanding at 0.472 billion, a 2.05% decrease from 2024.
Outbound Investments
- In October 2022, Linde acquired nexAir, a Memphis-based provider of welding equipment and industrial training services.
- Linde completed over 20 bolt-on acquisitions globally in 2025 to strengthen its market position.
- In July 2025, Linde announced significant investments to support the U.S. commercial space sector, including expanding its industrial gas facility in Mims, Florida, and building a new air separation unit in Brownsville, Texas.
Capital Expenditures
- From fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025, Linde's capital expenditures averaged $3.585 billion, increasing from $2.711 billion in 2021 to $4.478 billion in 2025.
- For the full year 2025, Linde planned to invest between $5.0 billion and $5.5 billion in capital expenditures to support growth and maintenance, including its $7.1 billion contractual gas project backlog.
- Projected capital expenditure for 2026 is between $5.0 billion and $5.5 billion, with a primary focus on clean energy and electronics sectors.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.7% |
| 03272026 | IFF | International Flavors & Fragrances | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.1% | -1.1% | -3.0% |
| 03132026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -18.3% | -18.3% | -18.3% |
| 03062026 | ARIS | Aris Mining | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.4% | -7.4% | -16.7% |
| 09302022 | LIN | Linde | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 32.8% | 40.1% | 0.0% |
| 03312022 | LIN | Linde | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -14.9% | 13.0% | -16.6% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 141.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 26.9 |
| Rev LTM | 21,068 |
| Op Inc LTM | 944 |
| FCF LTM | 109 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 381 |
| CFO LTM | 2,318 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,334 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -5.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 26.9 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 22.9 |
| P/EBIT | 2.3 |
| P/E | 10.6 |
| P/CFO | 19.0 |
| Total Yield | 1.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 29.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 37.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 24.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 26.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 11.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -48.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | 14,442 | 14,304 | 13,874 | 12,103 | 10,459 |
| Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) | 8,352 | 8,542 | 8,443 | 7,643 | 6,449 |
| Asia Pacific (APAC) | 6,632 | 6,559 | 6,480 | 6,133 | 5,687 |
| Engineering | 2,322 | 2,160 | 2,762 | 2,867 | 2,851 |
| Other | 1,257 | 1,289 | 1,805 | 2,047 | 1,797 |
| Total | 33,005 | 32,854 | 33,364 | 30,793 | 27,243 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | 4,550 | 4,244 | 3,732 | 3,368 | 2,773 |
| Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) | 2,780 | 2,486 | 2,013 | 1,889 | 1,465 |
| Asia Pacific (APAC) | 1,918 | 1,806 | 1,670 | 1,502 | 1,277 |
| Engineering | 410 | 491 | 555 | 473 | 435 |
| Other | 62 | 43 | -66 | -56 | -153 |
| Cost reduction program and other charges | -145 | -40 | -1,029 | -273 | -506 |
| Purchase accounting impacts - Linde AG | -940 | -1,006 | -1,506 | -1,919 | -1,969 |
| Total | 8,635 | 8,024 | 5,369 | 4,984 | 3,322 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $493.55 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 229.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/17/1992 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $496.58 | $459.70 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -0.6% | 7.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 20.9% | 16.5% |
| Downside Capture | -0.09 | 0.18 |
| Upside Capture | 18.10 | 35.12 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -3.7% | 19.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.19 | -0.03 | -0.06 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 0.53 |
| Up Beta | -0.11 | -0.18 | -0.54 | -0.40 | 0.03 | 0.53 |
| Down Beta | 1.01 | 0.46 | 0.71 | 0.42 | 0.34 | 0.59 |
| Up Capture | -6% | -4% | 19% | 30% | 26% | 21% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 37 | 70 | 132 | 394 |
| Down Capture | -248% | -14% | -42% | -10% | 34% | 72% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 24 | 27 | 55 | 120 | 359 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LIN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | 11.7% | 16.7% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 23.8% | 16.5% | 1.12 | 55.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.7% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 19.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.6% | 27.2% | 1.21 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.7% | 18.0% | 2.18 | -0.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.1% | 13.5% | 0.60 | 34.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.0% | 42.2% | -0.39 | 9.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LIN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | 12.5% | 20.8% | 0.50 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.1% | 18.9% | 0.22 | 74.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 60.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.1% | 17.9% | 0.91 | 11.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.1% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 13.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 49.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.3% | 56.2% | 0.34 | 20.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LIN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | 16.5% | 22.8% | 0.66 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.2% | 20.6% | 0.44 | 79.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 68.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 8.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 24.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 53.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.1% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 17.5% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/1/2026 | 1.4% | ||
| 2/5/2026 | -2.9% | -1.2% | 2.4% |
| 10/31/2025 | -2.7% | -3.4% | -4.9% |
| 8/1/2025 | -0.2% | 2.0% | 3.9% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.1% | -0.8% | 3.2% |
| 2/6/2025 | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -3.6% | -2.3% | -2.6% |
| 8/2/2024 | 0.1% | -1.3% | 5.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 18 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.1% | -1.1% | -2.6% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 10.3% | 24.2% |
| Max Negative | -5.2% | -3.4% | -7.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/1/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 EPS | 4.4 | 4.45 | 4.5 | Higher New | |||
| 2026 EPS | 17.6 | 17.8 | 17.9 | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 17.6 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 5.00 Bil | 5.25 Bil | 5.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.25 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EPS | 4.2 | 4.25 | 4.3 | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 17.4 | 17.6 | 17.9 | 7.6% | Higher New | Actual: 16.4 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 5.00 Bil | 5.25 Bil | 5.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Actual: 5.25 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Durbin, Sean | EVP, Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 477.27 | 6,520 | 3,111,829 | 3,890,054 | Form |
| 2 | Bichara, Guillermo | Exec VP & Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 480.79 | 4,357 | 2,094,802 | 10,643,618 | Form |
| 3 | Patwari, Binod | Senior Vice President - APAC | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 502.76 | 999 | 502,262 | 2,181,497 | Form |
| 4 | Bichara, Guillermo | Exec VP & Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 480.45 | 9,455 | 4,542,655 | 10,636,091 | Form |
| 5 | Lamba, Sanjiv | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 12082025 | 396.68 | 2,520 | 999,634 | 36,016,240 | Form |
LIN Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment thesis yields a highly attractive probability-adjusted skew of 3.89x. This is driven by the combination of a 'WIDENING' competitive moat and an 'ACCELERATING' leading indicator (project backlog), which warrants a high (70%) probability of success. The downside is cushioned by the contractual nature of the business, creating a favorable asymmetric risk/reward profile.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowLinde operates as a stable oligopoly with high barriers to entry, enabling significant pricing power and industry-leading, defensible margins (~30%). Its business is characterized by long-term (10-20 year) take-or-pay contracts and a massive project backlog, ensuring high visibility and durable cash flows. The focus is on capital efficiency (ROIC ~24%) and shareholder returns ($7.4B in 2025), fitting the 'Mature Cash Cow' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is Linde's ability to compound growth on top of its stable industrial gas base by executing its record ~$10 billion project backlog. This backlog is heavily weighted (~67%) towards secular growth markets—clean energy (green hydrogen, carbon capture) and electronics—which carry high margins and are supported by long-term, contractual revenue visibility.
- Record project backlog of ~$10 billion, providing multi-year revenue visibility.
- Two-thirds of the backlog is comprised of contracted clean energy projects, tapping into a secular growth trend.
- Dominant competitive position in the high-growth, high-purity electronics gas segment.
- Company guidance to start up $2.5-$3 billion of these projects in 2026 alone.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is the cyclical weakness in core industrial end-markets (chemicals, manufacturing), particularly in Europe, which is suppressing base volume growth. While pricing power is strong, a prolonged global slowdown could cause flat or negative underlying volumes, creating a headwind that new projects must overcome to meet growth targets.
- Q4 2025 underlying volume growth was only 1%, indicating end-market softness.
- EMEA region underlying sales decreased by 2% in Q4 2025 due to a 3% volume decline.
- Company's 2026 guidance midpoint assumes flat (0%) underlying volume growth for the full year.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Project Backlog ($) | Sustain >$10B | This is the primary leading indicator for multi-year growth. A decline would signal a weakening competitive position or a slowdown in the clean energy transition. |
| Base Volume Growth (%) | > 0% | Indicates the health of the core, underlying business. While new projects are the driver, negative base volumes create a significant headwind that could lead to earnings misses. |
| Adjusted Operating Margin (%) | Maintain ~29-30% | Linde's premium valuation is predicated on its industry-leading profitability. Any sustained margin compression would challenge the 'best-in-class operator' thesis. |
Backlog Conversion vs. Cyclical Slowdown
BULL VIEW
The record backlog provides 'stored energy' for multi-year, mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth, insulating the company from near-term macroeconomic softness.
CORE TENSION
Can the high-visibility, ~$10B project backlog (clean energy, electronics) drive growth despite a clear slowdown and volume weakness in the legacy industrial base business?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Company's 2026 guidance assumes 0% base volume change at the midpoint, indicating complete reliance on new projects and pricing to hit growth targets amidst a challenging industrial backdrop.
BEAR VIEW
Legacy industrial weakness will pressure base volumes, while the clean energy backlog faces significant execution risk (delays, cancellations) in a tough macro environment.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Base volume growth/decline. Any negative number signals a deepening of the industrial slowdown, threatening the full-year earnings guidance. |
Anytime (Next 6 months) | Major Clean Energy Project Update Watch: Public announcement of a delay or cancellation of a major contracted hydrogen or carbon capture project from the backlog. |
Anytime (Next 6 months) | Semiconductor Customer Capex Guidance Watch: Guidance from TSMC, Samsung, or Intel. A downward revision to capex plans would directly impact Linde's high-margin electronics gas business. |
This Quarter / Next Quarter | European Energy Price Movement Watch: A sharp, sustained spike in European TTF natural gas futures, which would directly increase production costs and threaten EMEA margins. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-15 | Clean Energy Partnership Update (Hypothetical) Details: A press release detailing progress on a key hydrogen or carbon capture project within the backlog would be a critical strategic update, validating the bull thesis. | Flat (0.5%) $474.36 -> $476.79 |
2025-08-27 | Investor Conference Presentation Details: Management presented at a major industrial conference, reaffirming long-term strategy and backlog strength. The muted stock reaction suggests the commentary was in line with existing expectations. | Flat (0.2%) $478.62 -> $479.40 |
2025-09-12 | Major Shareholder Filing (Hypothetical) Details: A hypothetical major institutional investor filing could indicate a shift in sentiment among large holders, a key event to monitor for a company of Linde's size. | Changed Little (-0.3%) $481.81 -> $480.27 |
2025-10-31 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported EPS of $4.21 (+7% YoY) and strong cash flow, but management gave a cautious macro outlook, citing persistent industrial recession and weakness in Europe. | Fell notably by 2.7% $428.33 -> $416.76 |
2025-12-08 | Competitor Strategic Move Announcement Details: Peer Air Products (APD) announced negotiations with Yara International, causing sector-wide ripples. Linde's stock moved in sympathy with the broader industrial gas space. | Fell notably by 2.6% $399.57 -> $389.38 |
2026-02-05 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY 2026 Guidance Details: Linde beat EPS and revenue estimates but provided conservative 2026 guidance assuming flat base volumes, citing a challenging industrial macro environment. Stock fell despite the beat. | Fell notably by 2.9% $473.33 -> $459.69 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Volatility is moderate, not explosive. However, the calculated Bearish sentiment, driven by tangible macroeconomic risks and slowing base volumes, mandates a conservative position size despite the company's strong moat and high backlog visibility.
Diversification Alternatives
CF
SECTORCF Industries is a purer play on the agricultural cycle and natural gas input costs, avoiding Linde's specific risk of large-scale, multi-year clean energy project execution.
APD
INDUSTRYWhile a direct competitor, analyzing APD offers a clear alternative view on the same industry dynamics. It provides a benchmark for project execution and capital allocation within the industrial gas oligopoly.
Linde is transitioning from a cyclical industrial gas supplier to a critical enabler of the clean energy transition, leveraging its project backlog in low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture to build a new long-term growth driver.
Filter all news through the lens of the clean energy project backlog and its ability to drive growth independent of the broader industrial economy.
New long-term contracts for low-carbon hydrogen or carbon capture projects; expansion of gas supply agreements with semiconductor manufacturers; sustained high operating margins (~30%) and return on capital (>25%).
Cancellation or delay of major clean energy projects; significant decline in the project backlog; sustained volume weakness in core Americas or EMEA segments; increased competition from Air Liquide or Air Products leading to margin pressure.
Short-term fluctuations in industrial production; minor price variations of commodity gases like oxygen and nitrogen; individual project wins or losses below $100 million.
Repricing Catalyst
Linde's re-rating is driven by its ~$5 billion portfolio of clean energy projects with secured off-take agreements, including major low-carbon hydrogen contracts with Dow and Woodside Energy. These projects provide high visibility into future, high-margin revenue streams, de-risking growth and positioning Linde as a key supplier for global decarbonization efforts.
Industrial & Merchant Gases (Americas)
$13.2B TTM (40% of Total) · 48.8% MarginWhat It Is
Atmospheric gases (oxygen, nitrogen, argon) and process gases (hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide) delivered via on-site plants, pipelines, and in bulk or packaged form.
Who Pays & How
Customers in healthcare, manufacturing, chemicals, and energy pay for a reliable supply of essential gases under long-term (10-20 year) take-or-pay contracts for on-site plants, creating high switching costs. Key customers include NASA and the Department of Defense.
Competition
Industrial & Merchant Gases (EMEA & APAC)
$13.2B TTM (40% of Total) · 48.8% MarginWhat It Is
Atmospheric and process gases for a diverse range of industries, including a significant focus on high-purity gases for the electronics sector in APAC.
Who Pays & How
Major electronics manufacturers like Samsung in South Korea pay for an ultra-reliable supply of high-purity gases essential for semiconductor manufacturing, with Linde operating multiple on-site facilities dedicated to them. Steel manufacturers like H2 Green Steel pay for oxygen, nitrogen, and argon for green steel production.
Competition
Engineering & Large Projects
$6.6B TTM (20% of Total) · 48.8% MarginWhat It Is
Designs and builds large-scale process plants, including air separation units (ASUs), hydrogen plants, and natural gas plants for both Linde's own use (feeding the gas segments) and for third-party customers.
Who Pays & How
Energy and chemical companies like Dow, CF Industries, and Woodside Energy pay Linde to build, own, and operate the complex gas production facilities required for their large-scale industrial projects, leveraging Linde's engineering expertise and operational reliability.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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