LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $16.36 | Market Cap: $466.9 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $16.36Market Cap: $466.9 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -68 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -388% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Presbyopia Treatments, and Targeted Ophthalmic Therapies. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -258%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -264% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.6% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 28% | |
| Key risksLENZ key risks include [1] an overwhelming dependence on its sole product, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Presbyopia Treatments, and Targeted Ophthalmic Therapies. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -68 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -388% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -258%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -264% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.6% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 28% |
| Key risksLENZ key risks include [1] an overwhelming dependence on its sole product, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LENZ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why LENZ Therapeutics' stock moved by -57.6% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Adverse Event Report for VIZZ Eye Therapy: LENZ Therapeutics shares plummeted significantly on December 12, 2025, after reports emerged from the FDA's adverse-event reporting system (FAERS) highlighting a retinal tear associated with Vizz, the company's newly launched eye treatment for presbyopia.
2. Investor Concerns Over VIZZ's Safety and Market Impact: The reported retinal tear sparked considerable investor worry regarding the safety profile of VIZZ and its potential impact on the therapy's commercial trajectory. This concern was amplified by comparisons to a rival presbyopia therapy whose launch was affected by perceived safety risks related to retinal detachment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LENZ Return | � | � | -73% | -21% | 1002% | -42% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | 34% | 37% | 15% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LENZ Win Rate | � | 17% | 42% | 42% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | 51% | 52% | 60% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LENZ Max Drawdown | � | � | -83% | -44% | -0% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -10% | -12% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ABBV, GKOS, REGN, BLCO, OCUL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LENZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -94.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1561.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 670 days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
LENZ Therapeutics's stock fell -94.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/30/2021. A -94.0% loss requires a 1561.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LENZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for LENZ Therapeutics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 64.65 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.2 |
| Rev LTM | 2,723 |
| Op Inc LTM | 24 |
| FCF LTM | -37 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -58 |
| CFO LTM | 74 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 63 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -8.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.2 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| P/EBIT | 1.1 |
| P/E | -13.1 |
| P/CFO | 0.1 |
| Total Yield | -3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 110.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 22.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 32.0% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -23.5% | -5.7% | -4.7% |
| 7/30/2025 | -2.9% | -3.8% | 18.0% |
| 3/19/2025 | 3.1% | 2.2% | -6.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | 12.5% | 30.0% | 26.0% |
| 8/14/2024 | -3.8% | -4.4% | -7.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | -4.8% | -2.1% | -3.7% |
| 3/20/2023 | -4.1% | -0.4% | 20.0% |
| 11/9/2022 | 3.0% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 6.1% | 19.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -3.8% | -8.9% |
| Max Positive | 12.5% | 30.0% | 26.0% |
| Max Negative | -23.5% | -33.6% | -50.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312022 | 2132024 | 424B3 12/31/2022 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | MCCOLLUM JAMES W | 11102025 | Buy | 22.79 | 10,500 | 239,278 | 239,278 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |