Eve (EVEX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.81 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Eve (EVEX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.81Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -113% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -198 Mil | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -113% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -198 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EVEX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Partnership with BETA Technologies and Supply Chain Strengthening**
On December 3, 2025, Eve Air Mobility announced the selection of BETA Technologies to supply electric pusher motors for its conforming prototypes and production aircraft. This agreement, valued at up to $1 billion over a potential 10-year period for BETA, reinforces Eve's supply chain and was followed by a 14.8% surge in EVEX stock. This collaboration is key to supporting Eve's backlog of 2,800 electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.
**2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Catalyst Watch**
JPMorgan placed Eve Holding (EVEX) on a "Positive Catalyst Watch" on December 1, 2025, in anticipation of its prototype's first flight, which is projected for late 2025 or early 2026. This milestone is considered pivotal, as similar events have historically led to significant stock rallies for industry peers. As of November 28, 2025, analysts maintained a "Buy" consensus rating for EVEX, with price targets indicating potential upside.
**3. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Performance**
Eve Holding, Inc. reported its Third Quarter 2025 results on November 4, 2025. The company slightly exceeded analyst expectations for earnings per share (EPS), reporting ($0.14) compared to a consensus estimate of ($0.15).
**4. Substantial eVTOL Backlog and Comprehensive Business Model**
Eve Holding boasts a robust order book of approximately 2,800 eVTOL aircraft, representing an estimated value of around $14 billion. The company is strategically focused on developing the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) ecosystem through an advanced eVTOL project, a global services and support network, and a unique air traffic management solution.
**5. Progress Towards Certification and Commercialization**
Eve is demonstrating a strong commitment to growth by anticipating annual increases in research and development (R&D) and benefiting from a significant financial investment of approximately $90 million from Brazil's National Development Bank. These efforts are aimed at accelerating its certification and commercialization processes. The first flight of its prototype, expected between late 2024 and early 2026, is a crucial step in de-risking engineering validation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EVEX Return | - | - | - | 2% | -26% | -14% | -35% |
| Peers Return | -13% | -2% | -3% | 14% | -2% | 47% | 36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EVEX Win Rate | - | - | 43% | 50% | 25% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 17% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 31% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EVEX Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -24% | -67% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -7% | -0% | -2% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EVEX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC
In The Past
Eve's stock fell -55.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/21/2022. A -55.9% loss requires a 126.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Eve (EVEX) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Eve (EVEX) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Eve (EVEX) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Eve (EVEX) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Eve (EVEX) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Eve (EVEX) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Eve (EVEX) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why Eve Stock Moved: EVEX Stock Has Lost 46% Since 2023 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Revenues | |||
| Eve Earnings Notes | |||
| EVEX Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Market Movers | Winners: WULF, OPEN, SLDP | Losers: EVEX, COHR, TPR | August 15th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EVEX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Eve
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.55 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.7 |
| Rev LTM | 52 |
| Op Inc LTM | -103 |
| FCF LTM | -96 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -11 |
| CFO LTM | -87 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 86.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 56.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 167.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 18.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -209.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -348.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 44.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -164.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -357.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -197.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -388.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.7 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 12.9 |
| P/E | -264.7 |
| P/CFO | 7.4 |
| Total Yield | -8.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 21.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 118.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 212.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 104.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 190.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 12232022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4132022 | DEFM14A 12/31/2021 |
| 6302021 | 12082022 | 10-Q/A 6/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |