IPG Photonics (IPGP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.58 | Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Electronic Manufacturing Services
IPG Photonics (IPGP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.58Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Electronic Manufacturing Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 108x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 130x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Factory Automation, Industrial Robotics, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Factory Automation, Industrial Robotics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 108x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 130x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
IPGP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: IPG Photonics reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.35 for the third quarter of 2025, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimate of $0.16. Additionally, the company's revenues reached $250.8 million, surpassing the consensus forecast of $240.18 million.
2. Positive Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Guidance: Following its strong Q3 performance, IPG Photonics provided guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting revenues between $230.0 million and $260.0 million and adjusted earnings per diluted share in the range of $0.05 to $0.35.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| IPGP Return | 54% | -23% | -45% | 15% | -33% | 12% | -44% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 23% | -8% | 13% | 10% | -11% | 57% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| IPGP Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 52% | 35% | 45% | 42% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| IPGP Max Drawdown | -29% | -32% | -52% | -12% | -43% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -4% | -21% | -5% | -9% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TXN, MSI, AME, WOLF, POWI. See IPGP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | IPGP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -67.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 211.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -59.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 149.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 302.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 623 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TXN, MSI, AME, WOLF, POWI
In The Past
IPG Photonics's stock fell -67.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/19/2021. A -67.9% loss requires a 211.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to IPGP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 02292024 | IPGP | IPG Photonics | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.9% | -32.6% | -33.0% |
| 12312022 | IPGP | IPG Photonics | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 43.5% | 14.7% | -11.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 02292024 | IPGP | IPG Photonics | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.9% | -32.6% | -33.0% |
| 12312022 | IPGP | IPG Photonics | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 43.5% | 14.7% | -11.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for IPG Photonics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 132.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 24.7 |
| Rev LTM | 4,064 |
| Op Inc LTM | 952 |
| FCF LTM | 861 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 851 |
| CFO LTM | 944 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 966 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 24.7 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| P/EBIT | 26.1 |
| P/E | 34.6 |
| P/CFO | 24.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 12.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Power Continuous Wave (CW) Lasers | 525 | 614 | 687 | 646 | 735 |
| Other Revenue including Other Lasers, Amplifiers, Service, Parts, Accessories and Change in | 295 | 284 | 265 | 201 | 187 |
| Pulsed Lasers | 186 | 251 | 241 | 158 | 138 |
| Laser and Non-Laser Systems | 161 | 153 | 127 | 94 | 142 |
| Medium Power Continuous Wave (CW) Lasers | 72 | 77 | 81 | 51 | 57 |
| Quasi-Continuous Wave (QCW) Lasers | 49 | 50 | 61 | 50 | 56 |
| Total | 1,287 | 1,430 | 1,461 | 1,201 | 1,315 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |