Intel (INTC)
Market Price (5/27/2026): $123.15 | Market Cap: $626.0 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Intel (INTC)
Market Price (5/27/2026): $123.15Market Cap: $626.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 10.0 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.6%, Dist 3Y High is -4.6% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 63x Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 245%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 516% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.6% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.8% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 245% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.5% Key risksINTC key risks include [1] significant manufacturing execution challenges, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 10.0 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.6%, Dist 3Y High is -4.6% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 63x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 245%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 516% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.6% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.8% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 245% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.5% |
| Key risksINTC key risks include [1] significant manufacturing execution challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Exceptional First-Quarter 2026 Earnings Beat Fueled Investor Confidence. Intel reported first-quarter 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.29, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.01 by $0.28. Quarterly revenue also exceeded expectations, reaching $13.58 billion, a 7.4% year-over-year increase, compared to the consensus estimate of $12.32 billion. This strong financial performance, demonstrating improved operational efficiency, led to a substantial 24% single-day surge in the stock on April 24, 2026, marking its best day since 1987.
2. Accelerating AI-Driven Demand and Strategic Foundry Partnerships. Intel benefited from a surge in demand for its CPUs for AI workloads, particularly for inference and general-purpose computing, signaling a shift in processing requirements back towards CPUs. This demand translated into significant strategic partnerships for its foundry services. Notably, Intel announced a multiyear collaboration with Google to advance AI and cloud infrastructure, involving the deployment of Intel Xeon processors and co-development of custom ASIC-based infrastructure processing units (IPUs). Furthermore, Intel secured commitments from external foundry customers, including a significant design win with Microsoft for a custom chip on the 18A process, a multi-year agreement with Amazon Web Services, and discussions with Apple, Nvidia for AI GPU manufacturing, and Tesla for the Terafab project. These agreements represent a potential lifetime deal value exceeding $15 billion for Intel's foundry business.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 165.8% change in INTC stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 174.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 46.47 | 123.52 | 165.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 52,853 | 53,763 | 1.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.3 | 11.7 | 174.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,848 | 5,083 | -4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 165.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 165.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 52.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 28.8% | 64.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 208.9% change in INTC stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 254.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 39.99 | 123.52 | 208.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,070 | 53,763 | 1.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.3 | 11.7 | 254.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,369 | 5,083 | -14.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 208.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 208.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.7% | 45.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 23.5% | 56.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 514.5% change in INTC stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 609.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.10 | 123.52 | 514.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,044 | 53,763 | 1.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.6 | 11.7 | 609.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,343 | 5,083 | -14.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 514.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 514.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 36.9% | 39.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 77.4% | 48.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 307.4% change in INTC stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 423.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.32 | 123.52 | 307.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 56,416 | 53,763 | -4.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.2 | 11.7 | 423.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,154 | 5,083 | -18.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 307.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 307.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 87.5% | 45.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 150.6% | 49.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| INTC Return | 6% | -47% | 95% | -60% | 84% | 225% | 166% |
| Peers Return | 57% | -41% | 116% | 54% | 84% | 71% | 879% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| INTC Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 42% | 65% | 55% | 60% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| INTC Max Drawdown | -29% | -54% | -17% | -62% | -34% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -51% | -20% | -35% | -37% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMD, NVDA, QCOM, AVGO, MU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/26/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | INTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 366 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -13.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Intel's stock fell -29.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | INTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 366 days | 140 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 973 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Intel's stock fell -29.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Intel (INTC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Intel:
- Intel is like Microsoft for computer processors.
- Intel is like General Electric for microchips.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Central Processing Units (CPUs) & Chipsets: Core components that power computers and manage data flow.
- System-on-Chip (SoC) & Multichip Packages: Integrated solutions that combine various components onto a single package for efficiency and specialized applications.
- Accelerators & Graphics Products: Hardware designed to enhance performance for specific computing tasks and render visual content.
- Memory & Storage Products: Components for data retention and retrieval within computing systems.
- Connectivity Products: Hardware enabling network communication, such as Wi-Fi, Ethernet, and Thunderbolt.
- High-Performance Compute & Embedded Solutions: Specialized computing platforms for demanding applications in sectors like retail, industrial, and healthcare.
- Autonomous Driving Solutions (Mobileye): Comprehensive systems for self-driving vehicles, including compute platforms, sensors, and AI software.
- Workload-Optimized Platforms: Tailored computing platforms and related products for cloud, enterprise, government, and communication service providers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intel's major customers are primarily other companies, as it sells its products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), original design manufacturers (ODMs), and cloud service providers (CSPs). Major customers known to operate in these categories include:
- Dell Technologies (DELL)
- HP Inc. (HPQ)
- Lenovo Group Limited (0992.HK) - Note: Primary listing is in Hong Kong
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - for its Amazon Web Services (AWS)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) - for its Azure cloud platform
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) - for its Google Cloud Platform (GCP)
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- ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
- Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
- Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)
- KLA Corporation (KLAC)
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Lip-Bu Tan Chief Executive Officer
Lip-Bu Tan was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Intel Corporation in March 2025. He previously served as CEO of Cadence Design Systems from 2009 to 2021, a period during which he doubled the company's revenue. Tan also founded Walden International in 1987, a global venture capital firm that has supported numerous successful technology startups. He holds a Bachelor of Science in physics, a Master of Science in nuclear engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and an MBA from the University of San Francisco.
David Zinsner Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
David Zinsner has been the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Intel Corporation since January 2022. Prior to joining Intel, he was the Executive Vice President and CFO at Micron Technology Inc. for nearly four years. His career also includes serving as President and Chief Operating Officer at Affirmed Networks, and as Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO at Analog Devices and Intersil Corp. At Intersil, Zinsner joined as treasurer when a private equity firm acquired the business from Harris Corporation, and he played a role in taking Intersil public.
April Miller Boise Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
April Miller Boise is the Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Intel Corporation, a role she assumed in July 2022. Before her tenure at Intel, she served as Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Eaton Corp., starting in 2020. Preceding Eaton, she held the position of Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary for Meritor Inc.
Naga Chandrasekaran Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Operations Officer of Intel Foundry, including Intel Foundry Services
Naga Chandrasekaran serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Operations Officer of Intel Foundry, with an expanded role that now includes Intel Foundry Services. He joined Intel in 2024 from Micron, where he was the Senior Vice President for technology development, bringing decades of experience in semiconductor manufacturing and research and development.
Sachin Katti Chief Technology and AI Officer
Sachin Katti holds the title of Chief Technology and AI Officer at Intel. He was appointed to this additional role in mid-April 2025, where he leads Intel's overall AI strategy, AI product roadmap, Intel Labs, and engagements with the startup and developer ecosystems. Prior to this expanded responsibility, Katti led Intel's networking business.
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Key Risks to Intel's Business
- Intense Competition and Market Share Erosion: Intel faces significant competitive pressures, particularly from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in the core CPU market, where Intel has experienced a substantial decline in market share. The company also lags behind NVIDIA in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence (AI) chip and GPU markets, missing out on crucial growth opportunities. The emergence of ARM-based processors further challenges Intel's traditional dominance in the x86 architecture.
- Manufacturing Delays, Execution Risks, and Losses in Foundry Business: Intel's manufacturing execution has faltered, with prolonged delays and setbacks in advancing its process technology nodes (e.g., 10nm to 7nm, and challenges with the 18A node). This has allowed competitors leveraging third-party foundries like TSMC to gain a technological edge. Furthermore, Intel's significant investments in its foundry business (Intel Foundry Services) have resulted in multi-billion dollar operating losses, with management not expecting break-even until at least 2027, highlighting substantial execution risk around capacity, yields, and capital returns.
- Financial Strain and High Capital Expenditure: Intel's financial health has deteriorated, marked by a significant revenue decline of over 30% between 2021 and 2024, plummeting gross margins, and negative free cash flow. The company's turnaround strategy (IDM 2.0) requires immense capital expenditure for foundry construction and technology development (targeting approximately $18 billion in gross capital expenditures for 2025), which places significant strain on its balance sheet and poses considerable financial risk.
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The growing adoption of ARM-based processors across key computing segments represents a clear emerging threat. Specifically, Apple's successful transition to its own ARM-based Apple Silicon for its Mac computers has eliminated a significant chunk of Intel's traditional PC business. Concurrently, major cloud service providers are increasingly developing and deploying their own custom ARM-based chips (such as AWS Graviton) to power their data centers, directly challenging Intel's dominance in the server CPU market.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Intel's main products and services:
-
Client Computing Group (CCG) - PC Market:
- The worldwide PC market shipped 245.4 million units in 2024.
- The global gaming PC market was estimated at USD 61.84 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 129.93 billion by 2030.
- The global industrial personal computer (PC) market size was estimated at USD 6.48 billion in 2024.
-
Data Center and AI Group (DCAI) - Server CPUs and AI Chips:
- The worldwide server market value is projected to reach USD 366 billion in 2025.
- The global data center CPU market size was calculated at USD 13.16 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 28.04 billion by 2034.
- The global AI data centers market size is valued at USD 17.43 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 197.57 billion by 2035.
- Intel's custom AI processor business addresses a USD 100 billion total addressable market.
-
Mobileye - Autonomous Driving Solutions:
- The global autonomous vehicles market size was projected to grow from USD 224.67 billion in 2024 to USD 7197.33 billion by 2035.
- The global autonomous vehicle sensors market size was estimated at USD 9.95 billion in 2024 and is projected to surpass USD 32.29 billion by 2034.
-
Internet of Things Group (IOTG) - IoT Market:
- The global Internet of Things (IoT) market size was valued at USD 1.18 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2.65 trillion by 2030.
- The global IoT devices market size was estimated at USD 70.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 181.17 billion by 2030.
- The global IoT Edge Computing market size in 2024 stands at USD 7.8 billion and is expected to reach USD 28.7 billion by the end of 2033.
-
Programmable Solutions Group (PSG) - FPGA Market:
- The global field programmable gate array market size was valued at USD 12.72 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 13.92 billion in 2025 to USD 27.51 billion by 2032.
-
NAND Solutions Group (NSG) - NAND Flash Memory:
- The NAND Flash Memory Market size was valued at USD 71.53 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 161.88 billion by 2035.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
-
Growth in Data Center and AI (DCAI) Segment: Intel anticipates significant revenue growth from its Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment, particularly driven by increasing demand for AI accelerators and custom Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). The company reported that its custom AI processor revenue surpassed a $1 billion annual run rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a strong growth opportunity in this area. Management also highlighted the expanding role of CPUs within hyperscale and enterprise AI data centers as inference-driven AI workloads grow. Intel's Gaudi AI accelerators are a key part of this strategy, with the company seeing strong demand for these products.
-
Expansion of Intel Foundry Services (IFS) with Advanced Process Nodes: Intel is making substantial investments in its foundry business, aiming to become a leading external foundry. The success and ramp-up of advanced process technologies, such as Intel 18A, are critical to attracting external customers and boosting revenue. Intel expects its 18A node to reach commercially competitive yields in the first half of 2026, and its 14A node is projected to be market-ready by the end of 2027. Government support, including the CHIPS Act, further reinforces Intel's position as a "national champion" in semiconductor manufacturing.
-
Rebound in the Client Computing Group (CCG) Driven by AI PCs: While the Client Computing Group has faced challenges, Intel expects a rebound in this segment, primarily fueled by the growing adoption of "AI PCs." The company aims to ship over 100 million AI PCs by 2025. New product launches, including Lunar Lake, Arrow Lake, and Panther Lake CPUs, are also anticipated to contribute to revenue growth within the CCG as the broader PC market stabilizes and upgrades occur.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Intel's CEO stated in 2021 that the company would not be as focused on buybacks as in the past.
- As of December 27, 2025, Intel had an ongoing authorization to repurchase up to $110.0 billion in shares, with $7.24 billion remaining available.
Share Issuance
- Intel's net common equity issued/repurchased for 2025 was $19.506 billion, a 42.37% increase from 2024.
- In 2024, net common equity issued/repurchased amounted to $13.701 billion, which was a 148.57% increase from 2023.
- Shares outstanding for Intel in 2025 increased by 5.84% from 2024, reaching 4.53 billion.
Inbound Investments
- In Q3 2025, Intel received a $15 billion capital infusion from significant investors including the U.S. government, Nvidia, and SoftBank.
- The U.S. government acquired a 9.9% equity stake in Intel, valued at approximately $8.9 billion, through the conversion of CHIPS Act and defense grants.
- Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel common stock and entered a collaboration to jointly develop data center and PC products.
- SoftBank Group also made a $2 billion investment in Intel common stock.
Outbound Investments
- In the third quarter of 2025, Intel sold a majority ownership interest in Altera, a chip subsidiary, for $5.2 billion.
- Intel also divested a stake in Mobileye, resulting in billions of dollars in proceeds.
Capital Expenditures
- Intel's capital expenditures in 2024 totaled $23.94 billion, primarily directed towards expanding manufacturing capabilities, particularly in advanced process technologies.
- For the full fiscal year 2025, Intel is targeting a gross capital expenditure of $18 billion, a reduction from its previous target of $20 billion, with a focus on building out manufacturing capabilities and scaling its 18A process capacity.
- As of December 27, 2025, Intel had committed $9.1 billion for capital expenditures in 2026, with plans to increase spending on tools to address supply shortfalls for Intel 7, Intel 3, and 18A nodes.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to INTC.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BL | BlackLine | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.2% | 3.2% | -3.0% |
| 08312024 | INTC | Intel | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.7% | 10.5% | -17.7% |
| 04302022 | INTC | Intel | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -32.1% | -25.6% | -41.5% |
| 10312020 | INTC | Intel | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.7% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 335.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 915.3 |
| Rev LTM | 55,941 |
| Op Inc LTM | 19,764 |
| FCF LTM | 11,392 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,160 |
| CFO LTM | 21,984 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14,499 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 30.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 22.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 33.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 70.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 66.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 33.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 915.3 |
| P/S | 19.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 53.3 |
| P/EBIT | 31.6 |
| P/E | 37.3 |
| P/CFO | 52.2 |
| Total Yield | 1.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 47.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 93.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 99.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 221.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 387.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 42.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 84.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 86.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 191.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 378.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing Group (CCG) | 33,346 | 29,258 | 31,773 | 41,067 | 40,057 |
| Intel Foundry | 17,317 | 18,910 | 469 | 786 | |
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) | 16,125 | 12,635 | 19,445 | 22,691 | |
| All Other | 3,601 | 5,608 | 1,089 | 5,019 | 522 |
| Corporate unallocated | 0 | 0 | |||
| Intersegment eliminations | -17,288 | -17,957 | |||
| Network and Edge (NEX) | 5,774 | 8,409 | 7,976 | ||
| Mobileye | 1,869 | 1,386 | |||
| Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics | 774 | ||||
| Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics intersegment revenue | -675 | ||||
| Data Center Group | 26,103 | ||||
| Internet of Things Group | 3,974 | ||||
| Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group | 5,358 | ||||
| Programmable Solutions Group | 1,853 | ||||
| Total | 53,101 | 54,228 | 63,054 | 79,024 | 77,867 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing Group (CCG) | 11,594 | 9,513 | 5,569 | 15,704 | 15,129 |
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) | 1,414 | 1,620 | 1,300 | 8,439 | |
| All Other | -57 | 1,079 | -5,977 | -5,722 | -3,381 |
| Intersegment eliminations | -161 | -203 | |||
| Corporate unallocated | -11,177 | -5,165 | |||
| Intel Foundry | -13,291 | -6,955 | -281 | -23 | |
| Network and Edge (NEX) | 204 | 1,033 | 1,711 | ||
| Mobileye | 690 | 554 | |||
| Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics | -1,207 | ||||
| Data Center Group | 10,571 | ||||
| Internet of Things Group | 738 | ||||
| Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group | 361 | ||||
| Programmable Solutions Group | 260 | ||||
| Total | -11,678 | 93 | 2,334 | 19,456 | 23,678 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $123.52 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 627.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/17/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $78.00 | $47.69 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 58.4% | 159.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 87.8% | 71.9% |
| Downside Capture | 188.61 | 131.07 |
| Upside Capture | 496.36 | 304.34 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 53.6% | 40.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.98 | 2.93 | 2.82 | 2.59 | 2.11 | 1.75 |
| Up Beta | 1.20 | 1.67 | 2.07 | 3.16 | 2.38 | 1.71 |
| Down Beta | -3.38 | 3.47 | 2.54 | 2.69 | 2.18 | 1.63 |
| Up Capture | 725% | 683% | 619% | 507% | 571% | 1000% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 16 | 27 | 35 | 66 | 132 | 385 |
| Down Capture | -2% | 164% | 185% | 139% | 117% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 5 | 15 | 28 | 58 | 118 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 502.1% | 71.7% | 2.81 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 62.7% | 20.7% | 2.25 | 49.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.3% | 12.0% | 1.91 | 40.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 36.8% | 26.8% | 1.14 | 9.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 41.2% | 18.7% | 1.71 | -8.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 16.3% | 13.1% | 0.89 | 13.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -32.5% | 41.9% | -0.83 | 20.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 19.6% | 51.4% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.5% | 24.8% | 0.83 | 53.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.3% | 17.0% | 0.66 | 49.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 12.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.1% | 19.4% | 0.41 | 8.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.9% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 29.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.0% | 55.3% | 0.42 | 19.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 17.5% | 43.6% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 25.5% | 24.4% | 0.94 | 59.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 55.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 9.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 17.9% | 0.34 | 16.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 35.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.8% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 14.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/23/2026 | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| 1/22/2026 | -17.0% | -10.4% | -19.7% |
| 10/23/2025 | 0.3% | 5.2% | -9.6% |
| 7/24/2025 | -8.5% | -12.5% | 9.6% |
| 4/24/2025 | -6.7% | -7.0% | -6.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.9% | -3.1% | 13.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 21.9% | 11.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| # Negative | 17 | 16 | 18 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 5.1% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.6% | -10.3% | -10.4% |
| Max Positive | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| Max Negative | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 13.80 Bil | 14.30 Bil | 14.80 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Gross margin | 37.5% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Tax Rate | 4.0% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Earnings (Loss) Per Share Attributable to Intel—Diluted | 0.08 | ||||||
| 2026 GAAP operating expenses | 22.70 Bil | 24.7% | Raised | Guidance: 18.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating expenses | 16.50 Bil | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 16.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 11.70 Bil | 12.20 Bil | 12.70 Bil | -8.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 13.30 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 EPS | -0.21 | 50.0% | Lowered | Guidance: -0.14 for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 0 | ||||||
| 2026 GAAP Operating Expenses | 18.20 Bil | -4.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 19.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | 16.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 99.53 | 40,256 | 4,006,519 | 10,457,894 | Form |
| 2 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 49.05 | 20,000 | 981,000 | 5,545,593 | Form |
| 3 | Zinsner, David | EVP, CFO | Direct | Buy | 1272026 | 42.50 | 5,882 | 249,985 | 10,514,160 | Form |
INTC Trade Sentinel
UNDERWEIGHT (Score 3-4)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Despite a powerful AI-driven sector tailwind, Intel receives a low conviction score. The core investment thesis is predicated on a high-risk turnaround that is showing clear signs of failure, most notably the structural erosion of its competitive moat in the critical data center market. The stock is a value trap, with a speculative valuation that does not adequately price in the significant execution risk and accelerating share loss to nimbler competitors.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: Type E (Turnaround / Deep Value), Secondary: Type C (Secular Cyclical)Intel is a textbook Type E turnaround. After a decade of manufacturing stumbles and losing its process leadership, the company is undergoing a massive, capital-intensive strategy (IDM 2.0) under CEO Pat Gelsinger to regain its footing. The investment thesis hinges almost entirely on management execution. It has a secondary Cyclical classification due to its exposure to the massive, AI-driven semiconductor upcycle.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is that Intel will successfully execute its 'IDM 2.0' strategy, transforming its manufacturing arm from a cost center into a high-margin external foundry. Success hinges on ramping the 18A process node on schedule and converting its announced pipeline of major customers into high-volume manufacturing revenue, thereby creating a credible Western alternative to TSMC.
- Data Center & AI (DCAI) revenue re-accelerated to +22% YoY in Q1 2026, providing cash flow to fund the turnaround.
- Intel Foundry Services (IFS) has secured announced partnerships with major tech players like Microsoft, Google, and NVIDIA for various services.
- The company is a primary beneficiary of the US CHIPS Act, receiving billions in subsidies that de-risk the massive capital expenditures required for the turnaround.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is a failure to execute the turnaround, manifesting in two ways: 1) Continued market share erosion in the high-margin Data Center segment to AMD's EPYC and ARM-based alternatives, breaking the core profit engine. 2) Delays or uncompetitive yields for the critical 18A process node, which would cause potential foundry customers to stick with TSMC and render Intel's own future products uncompetitive.
- Intel's server CPU market share fell from 72.8% to 66.8% YoY in Q1 2026, with AMD's data center revenue surpassing Intel's for the first time.
- The Intel Foundry segment posted a massive $2.4 billion operating loss in Q1 2026 alone.
- Competitors NVIDIA and AMD are growing their respective data center businesses at a much faster rate (92% and 57% YoY vs. Intel's 22%).
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Data Center & AI (DCAI) Revenue YoY Growth | > 20% | This is the core profit engine funding the turnaround. Growth below this level, especially relative to AMD/NVIDIA, indicates accelerating market share loss and a failing thesis. |
| Intel Foundry Services (IFS) Operating Margin | Sequentially improving from -44% | The path to profitability for the foundry is the single most important driver of the long-term thesis. Continued multi-billion dollar quarterly losses are unsustainable and signal execution failure. |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin % | Sustainably > 40% | Indicates whether Intel is regaining manufacturing efficiency and pricing power. A slip below 40% would suggest that yield issues or competitive pressures are worsening. |
Foundry Turnaround vs. Core Business Erosion
BULL VIEW
Successful 18A node execution will create a new high-margin foundry business, justifying a re-rating while the AI boom supports the core business during the transition.
CORE TENSION
Can the high-risk, cash-burning IDM 2.0 foundry strategy ramp fast enough to offset accelerating market share loss in the profitable core Data Center business?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Intel's server CPU market share fell from 72.8% to 66.8% YoY in Q1 2026, with AMD's data center revenue of $5.8B surpassing Intel's $5.1B for the first time. The Foundry segment simultaneously posted a $2.4B operating loss.
BEAR VIEW
The foundry is a multi-billion dollar quarterly cash burn, while AMD and others permanently capture the high-margin server market. The turnaround will fail, destroying value.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
July 23, 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Watch for DCAI YoY revenue growth relative to AMD's, and any sequential improvement in the Intel Foundry operating loss from Q1's -$2.4B. |
H2 2026 | Intel 18A Process Node Update Watch: Binary headline: Official confirmation of 18A high-volume manufacturing timeline. Watch for any announced delays or major customer pull-backs (e.g., Microsoft). |
Late October 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Continued tracking of DCAI market share vs. AMD. Pivot metric is Non-GAAP Gross Margin guidance, to see if it can stay above the 40% threshold established in Q1. |
June 2-5, 2026 | Competitor Architectural Lock-Out (Computex) Watch: Headline announcements from NVIDIA (Rubin) or AMD (Helios) demonstrating a significant performance-per-watt or TCO advantage over Intel's Xeon 6 or Gaudi 3. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Nov 18, 2025 | Global Technology Conference Presentation Details: Management presented its strategic direction, highlighting a $5 billion partnership with NVIDIA, but also noted significant supply constraints expected to peak in Q1 2026. | Slight -1.1% pullback $34.71 -> $34.33 |
Jan 15, 2026 | CES 2026: Panther Lake Launch Details: Launched the Core Ultra Series 3 'Panther Lake' processors, the first platform built on the critical Intel 18A process, marking a major milestone for the IDM 2.0 strategy. | Muted (-0.8%) $48.72 -> $48.32 |
Jan 22, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & Weak Guidance Details: Stock fell sharply after issuing disappointing guidance for Q1 2026, citing manufacturing constraints and intensifying investor doubts about its ability to compete against AI leaders. | Plummeted -17.0% $54.32 -> $45.07 |
Mar 2, 2026 | SambaNova Strategic Partnership Details: Announced a multi-year collaboration and investment in AI startup SambaNova to integrate Intel silicon into SambaNova's data center architecture, signaling a strategic push into the AI ecosystem. | Muted (-0.2%) $45.61 -> $45.50 |
Apr 24, 2026 | Chief Accounting Officer Resigns Details: Corporate Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, Scott Gawel, resigned. The event coincided with the positive Q1 earnings reaction, masking any potential negative sentiment from the departure. | Surged +23.6% $66.78 -> $82.54 |
Apr 23, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Beat Details: Reported Q1 EPS of $0.29 vs. $0.01 estimate and guided Q2 revenue to $14.3B, above consensus. Key metric Data Center & AI (DCAI) revenue grew +22% YoY. | Surged +23.6% $66.78 -> $82.54 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (6.4x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, value trap valuation, and Eroding Moat force a Conservative 'knife catch' position until the turnaround shows tangible proof and volatility subsides.
Diversification Alternatives
NVDA
SECTORDominant market leader gaining share, avoids INTC's turnaround execution risk. Possesses a powerful software moat (CUDA) that INTC lacks, ensuring durable pricing power.
AMD
INDUSTRYDirectly benefits from Intel's primary risk (market share loss). Stronger recent execution track record without the capital drain of building a foundry from scratch.
Intel is re-rating from a declining legacy PC/Server chipmaker to a vertically integrated technology leader, driven by its IDM 2.0 strategy to regain manufacturing process leadership and build a major foundry business for external customers.
Filter all news through the lens of the IDM 2.0 turnaround: Is Intel hitting its process technology roadmap ('5 nodes in 4 years') and is the Foundry business signing meaningful external customers?
Named external customer wins for Intel Foundry Services (IFS) on 18A or 14A process nodes; evidence of market share gains vs. AMD in server CPUs (Xeon); higher-than-expected Foundry segment revenue; major government CHIPS Act funding announcements.
Delays in the '5N4Y' process technology roadmap (especially Intel 20A & 18A); major customers (e.g., cloud hyperscalers) announcing shifts to in-house ARM-based chips or competitor products; continued operating losses in the Foundry segment without significant revenue growth.
Quarterly fluctuations in the PC market; single-benchmark wins/losses against competitors that don't shift market share; short-term channel inventory adjustments.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary re-rating catalyst is the successful execution of the Intel Foundry Services (IFS) business plan, transforming a major cost center into a growth driver. Key evidence includes securing major external customers like Google and the Terafab project, and targeting a multi-billion dollar annual business over the next decade. The market is rewarding progress on its advanced process nodes (Intel 3, 18A) which underpins both internal product competitiveness and external foundry attractiveness.
Client Computing (PC Chips)
$30.9B TTM (57% of Total) · 41% MarginWhat It Is
Intel Core, Core Ultra, and vPro processors for notebook and desktop PCs.
Who Pays & How
Major PC OEMs (Dell, HP, Lenovo) pay per-chip. They are locked into the x86 architecture due to massive software compatibility requirements and high costs of redesigning motherboards and systems, creating significant switching costs.
Competition
Data Center & AI (Server Chips & Accelerators)
$20.2B TTM (37% of Total) · 41% MarginWhat It Is
Xeon server processors, Gaudi AI accelerators, Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), networking components.
Who Pays & How
Cloud service providers (Google, AWS, Microsoft Azure) and enterprise server OEMs pay per-chip. They choose Intel for its established x86 server ecosystem, reliability, and increasingly for AI workload performance. Google was named in a multiyear collaboration for Xeon 6 processors.
Competition
Intel Foundry Services (Contract Manufacturing)
$21.6B TTM (6% of Total) · -44% MarginWhat It Is
(Adapted: Service) Contract manufacturing of semiconductor wafers for external customers using Intel's process nodes (e.g., Intel 3, 18A). Also provides advanced packaging services.
Who Pays & How
Fabless semiconductor companies and large tech firms (like Google, NVIDIA, and the Terafab project) pay for wafer production and packaging. They choose IFS to diversify their supply chain beyond TSMC and to access leading-edge US/European-based manufacturing.
Competition
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