Intel (INTC)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $113.33 | Market Cap: $576.1 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Intel (INTC)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $113.33Market Cap: $576.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 10.0 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.9%, Dist 3Y High is -3.9% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 142%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 365% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.6% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.8% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 168% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9% Key risksINTC key risks include [1] significant manufacturing execution challenges, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 10.0 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.9%, Dist 3Y High is -3.9% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 142%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 365% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.6% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.8% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 168% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9% |
| Key risksINTC key risks include [1] significant manufacturing execution challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Intel reported a significant beat on its First Quarter 2026 earnings and provided strong Second Quarter guidance.
On April 23, 2026, Intel announced adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.29, substantially exceeding analyst estimates of $0.01. The company's revenue reached $13.58 billion, surpassing the consensus of $12.32 billion to $12.36 billion. Key contributors included a 22% year-over-year revenue jump in the Data Center and AI division. This strong financial performance, coupled with a Q2 2026 revenue forecast of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.20 (both above analyst expectations), caused Intel's stock to surge by 23.6% on April 24, 2026.
2. Unprecedented demand for AI chips and server CPUs drove significant revenue and pricing power.
The booming artificial intelligence market fueled an "unprecedented demand for silicon." Analysts anticipate Intel's server CPU shipments to grow by 20% annually in both 2026 and 2027. This high demand allowed Intel to command greater pricing power, with average selling prices projected to increase by 20% in 2026 and an additional 10% in 2027. Furthermore, Intel capitalized on this demand by selling chips with minor manufacturing defects, previously considered scrap, at premium prices, leading to a 12.1% stock increase on April 29, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 132.7% change in INTC stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 139.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 46.47 | 108.15 | 132.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 52,853 | 53,763 | 1.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.3 | 10.2 | 139.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,848 | 5,083 | -4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 132.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 132.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 55.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 15.3% | 62.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 170.4% change in INTC stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 210.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 39.99 | 108.15 | 170.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,070 | 53,763 | 1.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.3 | 10.2 | 210.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,369 | 5,083 | -14.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 170.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 170.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 45.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 10.5% | 54.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 438.1% change in INTC stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 521.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.10 | 108.15 | 438.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,044 | 53,763 | 1.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.6 | 10.2 | 521.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,343 | 5,083 | -14.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 438.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 438.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 39.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 58.7% | 46.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 256.7% change in INTC stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 358.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.32 | 108.15 | 256.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 56,416 | 53,763 | -4.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.2 | 10.2 | 358.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,154 | 5,083 | -18.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 256.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 256.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 45.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 124.2% | 48.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| INTC Return | 6% | -47% | 95% | -60% | 84% | 160% | 113% |
| Peers Return | 57% | -41% | 116% | 54% | 84% | 38% | 685% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| INTC Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 42% | 65% | 55% | 60% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 40% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| INTC Max Drawdown | -2% | -50% | -5% | -62% | -10% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -49% | -3% | -8% | -29% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMD, NVDA, QCOM, AVGO, MU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | INTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 366 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -13.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.9% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Intel's stock fell -29.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | INTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 366 days | 140 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 973 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Intel's stock fell -29.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Intel (INTC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Intel:
- Intel is like Microsoft for computer processors.
- Intel is like General Electric for microchips.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Central Processing Units (CPUs) & Chipsets: Core components that power computers and manage data flow.
- System-on-Chip (SoC) & Multichip Packages: Integrated solutions that combine various components onto a single package for efficiency and specialized applications.
- Accelerators & Graphics Products: Hardware designed to enhance performance for specific computing tasks and render visual content.
- Memory & Storage Products: Components for data retention and retrieval within computing systems.
- Connectivity Products: Hardware enabling network communication, such as Wi-Fi, Ethernet, and Thunderbolt.
- High-Performance Compute & Embedded Solutions: Specialized computing platforms for demanding applications in sectors like retail, industrial, and healthcare.
- Autonomous Driving Solutions (Mobileye): Comprehensive systems for self-driving vehicles, including compute platforms, sensors, and AI software.
- Workload-Optimized Platforms: Tailored computing platforms and related products for cloud, enterprise, government, and communication service providers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intel's major customers are primarily other companies, as it sells its products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), original design manufacturers (ODMs), and cloud service providers (CSPs). Major customers known to operate in these categories include:
- Dell Technologies (DELL)
- HP Inc. (HPQ)
- Lenovo Group Limited (0992.HK) - Note: Primary listing is in Hong Kong
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - for its Amazon Web Services (AWS)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) - for its Azure cloud platform
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) - for its Google Cloud Platform (GCP)
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- ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
- Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
- Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)
- KLA Corporation (KLAC)
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Lip-Bu Tan Chief Executive Officer
Lip-Bu Tan was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Intel Corporation in March 2025. He previously served as CEO of Cadence Design Systems from 2009 to 2021, a period during which he doubled the company's revenue. Tan also founded Walden International in 1987, a global venture capital firm that has supported numerous successful technology startups. He holds a Bachelor of Science in physics, a Master of Science in nuclear engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and an MBA from the University of San Francisco.
David Zinsner Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
David Zinsner has been the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Intel Corporation since January 2022. Prior to joining Intel, he was the Executive Vice President and CFO at Micron Technology Inc. for nearly four years. His career also includes serving as President and Chief Operating Officer at Affirmed Networks, and as Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO at Analog Devices and Intersil Corp. At Intersil, Zinsner joined as treasurer when a private equity firm acquired the business from Harris Corporation, and he played a role in taking Intersil public.
April Miller Boise Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
April Miller Boise is the Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Intel Corporation, a role she assumed in July 2022. Before her tenure at Intel, she served as Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Eaton Corp., starting in 2020. Preceding Eaton, she held the position of Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary for Meritor Inc.
Naga Chandrasekaran Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Operations Officer of Intel Foundry, including Intel Foundry Services
Naga Chandrasekaran serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Operations Officer of Intel Foundry, with an expanded role that now includes Intel Foundry Services. He joined Intel in 2024 from Micron, where he was the Senior Vice President for technology development, bringing decades of experience in semiconductor manufacturing and research and development.
Sachin Katti Chief Technology and AI Officer
Sachin Katti holds the title of Chief Technology and AI Officer at Intel. He was appointed to this additional role in mid-April 2025, where he leads Intel's overall AI strategy, AI product roadmap, Intel Labs, and engagements with the startup and developer ecosystems. Prior to this expanded responsibility, Katti led Intel's networking business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Intel's Business
- Intense Competition and Market Share Erosion: Intel faces significant competitive pressures, particularly from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in the core CPU market, where Intel has experienced a substantial decline in market share. The company also lags behind NVIDIA in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence (AI) chip and GPU markets, missing out on crucial growth opportunities. The emergence of ARM-based processors further challenges Intel's traditional dominance in the x86 architecture.
- Manufacturing Delays, Execution Risks, and Losses in Foundry Business: Intel's manufacturing execution has faltered, with prolonged delays and setbacks in advancing its process technology nodes (e.g., 10nm to 7nm, and challenges with the 18A node). This has allowed competitors leveraging third-party foundries like TSMC to gain a technological edge. Furthermore, Intel's significant investments in its foundry business (Intel Foundry Services) have resulted in multi-billion dollar operating losses, with management not expecting break-even until at least 2027, highlighting substantial execution risk around capacity, yields, and capital returns.
- Financial Strain and High Capital Expenditure: Intel's financial health has deteriorated, marked by a significant revenue decline of over 30% between 2021 and 2024, plummeting gross margins, and negative free cash flow. The company's turnaround strategy (IDM 2.0) requires immense capital expenditure for foundry construction and technology development (targeting approximately $18 billion in gross capital expenditures for 2025), which places significant strain on its balance sheet and poses considerable financial risk.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The growing adoption of ARM-based processors across key computing segments represents a clear emerging threat. Specifically, Apple's successful transition to its own ARM-based Apple Silicon for its Mac computers has eliminated a significant chunk of Intel's traditional PC business. Concurrently, major cloud service providers are increasingly developing and deploying their own custom ARM-based chips (such as AWS Graviton) to power their data centers, directly challenging Intel's dominance in the server CPU market.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Intel's main products and services:
-
Client Computing Group (CCG) - PC Market:
- The worldwide PC market shipped 245.4 million units in 2024.
- The global gaming PC market was estimated at USD 61.84 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 129.93 billion by 2030.
- The global industrial personal computer (PC) market size was estimated at USD 6.48 billion in 2024.
-
Data Center and AI Group (DCAI) - Server CPUs and AI Chips:
- The worldwide server market value is projected to reach USD 366 billion in 2025.
- The global data center CPU market size was calculated at USD 13.16 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 28.04 billion by 2034.
- The global AI data centers market size is valued at USD 17.43 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 197.57 billion by 2035.
- Intel's custom AI processor business addresses a USD 100 billion total addressable market.
-
Mobileye - Autonomous Driving Solutions:
- The global autonomous vehicles market size was projected to grow from USD 224.67 billion in 2024 to USD 7197.33 billion by 2035.
- The global autonomous vehicle sensors market size was estimated at USD 9.95 billion in 2024 and is projected to surpass USD 32.29 billion by 2034.
-
Internet of Things Group (IOTG) - IoT Market:
- The global Internet of Things (IoT) market size was valued at USD 1.18 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2.65 trillion by 2030.
- The global IoT devices market size was estimated at USD 70.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 181.17 billion by 2030.
- The global IoT Edge Computing market size in 2024 stands at USD 7.8 billion and is expected to reach USD 28.7 billion by the end of 2033.
-
Programmable Solutions Group (PSG) - FPGA Market:
- The global field programmable gate array market size was valued at USD 12.72 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 13.92 billion in 2025 to USD 27.51 billion by 2032.
-
NAND Solutions Group (NSG) - NAND Flash Memory:
- The NAND Flash Memory Market size was valued at USD 71.53 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 161.88 billion by 2035.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
-
Growth in Data Center and AI (DCAI) Segment: Intel anticipates significant revenue growth from its Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment, particularly driven by increasing demand for AI accelerators and custom Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). The company reported that its custom AI processor revenue surpassed a $1 billion annual run rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a strong growth opportunity in this area. Management also highlighted the expanding role of CPUs within hyperscale and enterprise AI data centers as inference-driven AI workloads grow. Intel's Gaudi AI accelerators are a key part of this strategy, with the company seeing strong demand for these products.
-
Expansion of Intel Foundry Services (IFS) with Advanced Process Nodes: Intel is making substantial investments in its foundry business, aiming to become a leading external foundry. The success and ramp-up of advanced process technologies, such as Intel 18A, are critical to attracting external customers and boosting revenue. Intel expects its 18A node to reach commercially competitive yields in the first half of 2026, and its 14A node is projected to be market-ready by the end of 2027. Government support, including the CHIPS Act, further reinforces Intel's position as a "national champion" in semiconductor manufacturing.
-
Rebound in the Client Computing Group (CCG) Driven by AI PCs: While the Client Computing Group has faced challenges, Intel expects a rebound in this segment, primarily fueled by the growing adoption of "AI PCs." The company aims to ship over 100 million AI PCs by 2025. New product launches, including Lunar Lake, Arrow Lake, and Panther Lake CPUs, are also anticipated to contribute to revenue growth within the CCG as the broader PC market stabilizes and upgrades occur.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Intel's CEO stated in 2021 that the company would not be as focused on buybacks as in the past.
- As of December 27, 2025, Intel had an ongoing authorization to repurchase up to $110.0 billion in shares, with $7.24 billion remaining available.
Share Issuance
- Intel's net common equity issued/repurchased for 2025 was $19.506 billion, a 42.37% increase from 2024.
- In 2024, net common equity issued/repurchased amounted to $13.701 billion, which was a 148.57% increase from 2023.
- Shares outstanding for Intel in 2025 increased by 5.84% from 2024, reaching 4.53 billion.
Inbound Investments
- In Q3 2025, Intel received a $15 billion capital infusion from significant investors including the U.S. government, Nvidia, and SoftBank.
- The U.S. government acquired a 9.9% equity stake in Intel, valued at approximately $8.9 billion, through the conversion of CHIPS Act and defense grants.
- Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel common stock and entered a collaboration to jointly develop data center and PC products.
- SoftBank Group also made a $2 billion investment in Intel common stock.
Outbound Investments
- In the third quarter of 2025, Intel sold a majority ownership interest in Altera, a chip subsidiary, for $5.2 billion.
- Intel also divested a stake in Mobileye, resulting in billions of dollars in proceeds.
Capital Expenditures
- Intel's capital expenditures in 2024 totaled $23.94 billion, primarily directed towards expanding manufacturing capabilities, particularly in advanced process technologies.
- For the full fiscal year 2025, Intel is targeting a gross capital expenditure of $18 billion, a reduction from its previous target of $20 billion, with a focus on building out manufacturing capabilities and scaling its 18A process capacity.
- As of December 27, 2025, Intel had committed $9.1 billion for capital expenditures in 2026, with plans to increase spending on tools to address supply shortfalls for Intel 7, Intel 3, and 18A nodes.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to INTC.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BL | BlackLine | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.2% | 3.2% | -3.0% |
| 08312024 | INTC | Intel | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.7% | 10.5% | -17.7% |
| 04302022 | INTC | Intel | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -32.1% | -25.6% | -41.5% |
| 10312020 | INTC | Intel | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.7% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 275.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 649.4 |
| Rev LTM | 55,941 |
| Op Inc LTM | 19,764 |
| FCF LTM | 11,392 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,787 |
| CFO LTM | 21,984 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14,499 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 20.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 31.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 68.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 66.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 33.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 649.4 |
| P/S | 14.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 54.1 |
| P/EBIT | 29.6 |
| P/E | 34.8 |
| P/CFO | 50.8 |
| Total Yield | 1.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 55.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 40.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 32.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 183.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 440.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 45.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 35.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 21.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 157.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 379.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing Group (CCG) | 33,346 | 29,258 | 31,773 | 41,067 | 40,057 |
| Intel Foundry | 17,317 | 18,910 | 469 | 786 | |
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) | 16,125 | 12,635 | 19,445 | 22,691 | |
| All Other | 3,601 | 5,608 | 1,089 | 5,019 | 522 |
| Corporate unallocated | 0 | 0 | |||
| Intersegment eliminations | -17,288 | -17,957 | |||
| Network and Edge (NEX) | 5,774 | 8,409 | 7,976 | ||
| Mobileye | 1,869 | 1,386 | |||
| Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics | 774 | ||||
| Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics intersegment revenue | -675 | ||||
| Data Center Group | 26,103 | ||||
| Internet of Things Group | 3,974 | ||||
| Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group | 5,358 | ||||
| Programmable Solutions Group | 1,853 | ||||
| Total | 53,101 | 54,228 | 63,054 | 79,024 | 77,867 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing Group (CCG) | 11,594 | 9,513 | 5,569 | 15,704 | 15,129 |
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) | 1,414 | 1,620 | 1,300 | 8,439 | |
| All Other | -57 | 1,079 | -5,977 | -5,722 | -3,381 |
| Intersegment eliminations | -161 | -203 | |||
| Corporate unallocated | -11,177 | -5,165 | |||
| Intel Foundry | -13,291 | -6,955 | -281 | -23 | |
| Network and Edge (NEX) | 204 | 1,033 | 1,711 | ||
| Mobileye | 690 | 554 | |||
| Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics | -1,207 | ||||
| Data Center Group | 10,571 | ||||
| Internet of Things Group | 738 | ||||
| Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group | 361 | ||||
| Programmable Solutions Group | 260 | ||||
| Total | -11,678 | 93 | 2,334 | 19,456 | 23,678 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $108.15 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 549.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/17/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $57.93 | $40.95 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 86.7% | 164.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 82.7% | 68.5% |
| Downside Capture | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| Upside Capture | 402.56 | 261.16 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 52.1% | 38.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.98 | 2.93 | 2.82 | 2.59 | 2.11 | 1.75 |
| Up Beta | 1.20 | 1.67 | 2.07 | 3.16 | 2.38 | 1.71 |
| Down Beta | -3.38 | 3.47 | 2.54 | 2.69 | 2.18 | 1.63 |
| Up Capture | 725% | 683% | 619% | 507% | 571% | 1000% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 16 | 27 | 35 | 66 | 132 | 385 |
| Down Capture | -2% | 164% | 185% | 139% | 117% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 5 | 15 | 28 | 58 | 118 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 425.1% | 69.5% | 2.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 54.1% | 20.5% | 2.00 | 46.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.8% | 12.5% | 1.73 | 39.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.6% | 27.2% | 1.23 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.1% | 18.0% | 2.16 | -7.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.4% | 0.53 | 12.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.3% | 42.2% | -0.34 | 19.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 15.5% | 50.6% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.4% | 24.8% | 0.70 | 53.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 50.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.9% | 0.92 | 12.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.0% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 9.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 28.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.9% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 19.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 15.7% | 43.2% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.9% | 24.4% | 0.89 | 59.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 56.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 8.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 16.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 35.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 14.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/23/2026 | 23.6% | 41.5% | |
| 1/22/2026 | -17.0% | -10.4% | -19.7% |
| 10/23/2025 | 0.3% | 5.2% | -9.6% |
| 7/24/2025 | -8.5% | -12.5% | 9.6% |
| 4/24/2025 | -6.7% | -7.0% | -6.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.9% | -3.1% | 13.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 21.9% | 11.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| # Negative | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 5.1% | 11.0% |
| Median Negative | -8.5% | -9.9% | -11.0% |
| Max Positive | 23.6% | 41.5% | 36.0% |
| Max Negative | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 13.80 Bil | 14.30 Bil | 14.80 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Gross margin | 37.5% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Tax Rate | 4.0% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Earnings (Loss) Per Share Attributable to Intel—Diluted | 0.08 | ||||||
| 2026 GAAP operating expenses | 22.70 Bil | 24.7% | Raised | Guidance: 18.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating expenses | 16.50 Bil | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 16.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 11.70 Bil | 12.20 Bil | 12.70 Bil | -8.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 13.30 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 EPS | -0.21 | 50.0% | Lowered | Guidance: -0.14 for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 0 | ||||||
| 2026 GAAP Operating Expenses | 18.20 Bil | -4.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 19.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | 16.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 99.53 | 40,256 | 4,006,519 | 10,457,894 | Form |
| 2 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 49.05 | 20,000 | 981,000 | 5,545,593 | Form |
| 3 | Zinsner, David | EVP, CFO | Direct | Buy | 1272026 | 42.50 | 5,882 | 249,985 | 10,514,160 | Form |
INTC Trade Sentinel
UNDERWEIGHT (Score 3-4)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The conviction is low due to a deeply negative risk/reward skew at the current valuation. The stock is priced for perfect execution on a highly complex turnaround, while its core competitive moat continues to erode. While the AI sector provides a strong tailwind, the company-specific risks of foundry execution and intense competition from AMD and Nvidia are not adequately reflected in the speculative stock price.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: Type E: 'Turnaround / Deep Value', Secondary: Type C: 'Secular Cyclical'Intel is a classic 'Turnaround' (70% weight) as its core thesis rests on executing a difficult strategic pivot ('IDM 2.0') to overcome years of manufacturing missteps and market share losses. It also has a 'Secular Cyclical' component (30% weight) as its near-term results are heavily influenced by the AI-driven semiconductor cycle.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis is a two-pronged turnaround. First, capturing the immediate, high-margin revenue opportunity from the AI-driven demand surge for CPUs in inference workloads, as evidenced by the Data Center & AI (DCAI) segment's recent re-acceleration. Second, successfully executing the capital-intensive foundry strategy to become a viable, Western-based alternative to TSMC, unlocking a new long-term growth vector and strategic re-rating.
- Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment revenue grew 22% YoY in Q1 2026, indicating strong uptake in AI workloads.
- Intel Foundry revenue grew 20% sequentially in Q1 2026, showing operational progress in the manufacturing ramp.
- Intel's 18A process node has achieved performance parity with TSMC's advanced nodes, a critical step for winning external customers.
- Secured major design wins and partnerships with Google (Xeon), Nvidia (host CPU for DGX Rubin), and Tesla (Foundry customer).
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is a failure to execute the complex and capital-intensive foundry strategy. Sustained operating losses in the foundry segment could become a value-destructive capital sinkhole, draining cash from the profitable product divisions and preventing necessary R&D investment to keep pace with fabless competitors like AMD and Nvidia.
- Intel Foundry segment posted a $2.4 billion operating loss in Q1 2026, highlighting the significant ongoing cash burn.
- AMD continues to gain share in the lucrative server CPU market, reaching 41.3% revenue share in Q4 2025.
- Nvidia's announcement of its next-generation 'Rubin' platform for H2 2026 significantly raises the competitive bar for Intel's Gaudi AI accelerators.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Data Center and AI (DCAI) Revenue Growth YoY | > 20% | Confirms the primary profit engine is successfully capturing high-margin AI demand, which is essential to fund the foundry investment. |
| Intel Foundry Operating Margin | Improving (loss narrowing QoQ) | The most direct indicator of progress in the foundry turnaround. A narrowing loss signals improving yields and cost control on the path to profitability. |
| External Foundry Revenue | Accelerating Sequentially | Measures the success of winning actual third-party business, which is the ultimate validation of the multi-billion dollar foundry strategy. |
Foundry Turnaround vs. Value-Destructive Cash Burn
BULL VIEW
DCAI segment's 22% YoY growth provides the capital to achieve foundry leadership. An 18A process ramp will unlock a major, high-margin revenue stream.
CORE TENSION
Can the profitable AI Data Center segment fund the capital-intensive foundry strategy before massive operating losses and competitive pressures permanently impair value?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The foundry segment's $2.4 billion operating loss in Q1 2026 is the most tangible evidence supporting the Bearish stance, despite strong DCAI performance.
BEAR VIEW
The foundry's $2.4B quarterly operating loss is an unsustainable capital sinkhole. AMD continues to gain share, eroding the core profit engine needed for investment.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late July 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Intel Foundry Operating Margin. Watch for QoQ improvement from the -$2.4B loss reported in Q1. Any progress towards breakeven is critical. |
H2 2026 | Foundry 'Show-Me' Moment for 14A Node Watch: Announcement of a major external, high-volume customer for the 14A process node. The company currently has zero committed external customers for this node. |
H2 2026 | Nvidia's 'Rubin' GPU Platform Launch Event Watch: Performance benchmarks of Rubin vs. Intel's Gaudi 3 AI accelerator and announcements of major cloud providers as launch customers for the full Rubin platform. |
Late October 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Call Watch: External Foundry Revenue growth. Watch if this figure accelerates sequentially from the $174M baseline established in Q1 2026, indicating real customer traction. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Nov 18, 2025 | NVIDIA Partnership Update Details: At an investor conference, Intel highlighted a significant partnership with NVIDIA, including using Intel Xeon as the host CPU in the DGX Rubin platform. | Rose significantly by +2.3% $34.33 -> $35.11 |
Jan 7, 2026 | CES 2026 Product Showcase Details: Intel launched its Core Ultra Series 3 processors, focusing on the 'AI PC' refresh cycle. The negative stock reaction suggests investor skepticism about its impact. | Fell notably by -3.6% $42.63 -> $41.11 |
Jan 22, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Despite beating Q4 estimates, the company provided weak guidance for Q1 2026, citing softness in the PC market and competitive pressures, sparking a major sell-off. | Crashed -17.0% $54.32 -> $45.07 |
Mar 4, 2026 | Morgan Stanley TMT Conference Details: CFO David Zinsner provided a business update. The minimal stock reaction suggests the commentary was largely in line with existing expectations. | Flat (0.8%) $45.58 -> $45.95 |
Mar 24, 2026 | Intel Foundry Direct Connect Event Details: Intel showcased its process technology roadmap to customers and partners, reinforcing its commitment to the IDM 2.0 strategy and progress on the 18A and 14A nodes. | Surged +7.1% $44.06 -> $47.18 |
Apr 23, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Details: Reported massive earnings beat. Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment revenue grew 22% YoY to $5.1B, signaling strong AI demand. Intel Foundry revenue up 20% sequentially. | Surged +23.6% $66.78 -> $82.54 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is trading in an Explosive volatility regime (5.6x S&P) with near-term fear spiking. The Bearish sentiment, speculative valuation, broken moat, and low visibility warrant a Conservative 'knife catch' position size to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
ASML
INDUSTRYAvoids the direct Intel vs. AMD/NVIDIA chip design war by selling the enabling equipment to all players. Benefits from the entire industry's capex with a near-monopolistic moat.
AVGO
INDUSTRYUnlike Intel's capital-intensive turnaround, Broadcom has a more diversified model blending high-margin hardware (networking, custom silicon) and recurring software revenue (VMware).
Intel is transitioning from a CPU-centric PC and server chipmaker into a two-pronged company: a product seller of AI-accelerated CPUs and a US-based, at-scale foundry intended to compete with TSMC for external manufacturing contracts.
Filter all news through the twin theses of 1) regaining CPU leadership in the AI era and 2) executing the capital-intensive foundry model to win external customers.
Data Center and AI (DCAI) revenue growth >+20% YoY; named external customer wins for Intel Foundry Services (IFS) on the 18A process node; evidence of narrowing the process technology gap with TSMC; gross margin expansion.
Continued x86 server market share loss to AMD's EPYC; delays or yield issues with the 18A and subsequent process nodes; major Foundry customers choosing TSMC or Samsung for next-generation chips; widening operating losses in the Foundry segment.
Quarterly fluctuations in the PC market (CCG segment) — this is a mature business and not the core of the re-rating thesis; individual product benchmark wins/losses against competitors — only sustained market share shifts matter; short-term channel inventory adjustments.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is re-rating Intel on the realization that the CPU is essential for AI inference and 'agentic AI,' driving a demand surge that is outpacing supply. This led to a 22% YoY revenue increase in the Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment in Q1 2026, with management guiding for continued double-digit growth. The accelerated ramp of the Intel 18A process node, which has achieved performance parity with TSMC's advanced nodes, is the secondary catalyst, positioning Intel Foundry to capture revenue from Western clients de-risking their supply chains.
Client Computing (PC Chips)
$30.8B TTM (57% of Total) · -9999% MarginWhat It Is
Intel Core Ultra processors for laptops and desktops, focusing on AI PC capabilities.
Who Pays & How
Major PC OEMs (Dell, HP, Lenovo) pay on a per-chip basis. They are locked in by long-standing platform design cycles and the x86 instruction set architecture, though competition is increasing.
Competition
Data Center & AI Chips
$20.4B TTM (38% of Total) · 31% MarginWhat It Is
Intel Xeon processors for servers; Custom ASICs for AI acceleration.
Who Pays & How
Cloud providers (Google) and enterprise server OEMs pay on a per-processor basis. They pay because CPUs are essential for AI inference workloads, and Intel is a primary supplier. Google signed a multi-year collaboration for Xeon processors.
Competition
Intel Foundry Services (IFS)
$21.6B TTM (5% of Total) · -44% MarginWhat It Is
Contract manufacturing of semiconductor wafers for external customers using Intel's process nodes (e.g., Intel 3, Intel 18A).
Who Pays & How
Fabless semiconductor companies and other IDMs pay for wafer production. The primary driver is the desire for a resilient, Western-based supply chain to de-risk from geopolitical concentration in Taiwan.
Competition
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