Intel (INTC)
Market Price (3/23/2026): $44.23 | Market Cap: $214.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Intel (INTC)
Market Price (3/23/2026): $44.23Market Cap: $214.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 9.7 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -9.0% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -23 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 0.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 80x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.1% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.4% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% | ||
| Key risksINTC key risks include [1] significant manufacturing execution challenges, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 9.7 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -9.0% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -23 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 0.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 80x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.1% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% |
| Key risksINTC key risks include [1] significant manufacturing execution challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Beat. Intel exceeded expectations in its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report on January 22, 2026, reporting an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.15, which significantly surpassed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.08 by $0.07. Some reports indicate this was a 275% beat over an even lower estimate of $0.04. Quarterly revenue also exceeded forecasts, reaching $13.67 billion against analyst estimates of $13.37 billion. These stronger-than-anticipated financial results contributed positively to investor sentiment.
2. Surging AI-Driven Server Demand and Capacity. Intel's Chief Financial Officer indicated on March 6, 2026, a robust and sustained demand for the company's server processors, primarily driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. The server market experienced over 20% unit growth in the last year, leading some of Intel's factories to operate at or above full capacity due to the increased need for AI infrastructure. This strong demand outlook for its lucrative server segment fueled investor confidence.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.2% change in INTC stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.56 | 43.87 | 8.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,439 | 52,853 | -1.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.4 | 4.0 | 17.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,514 | 4,848 | -6.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 8.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -4.8% | 32.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | -5.5% | 41.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 80.2% change in INTC stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 100.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.35 | 43.87 | 80.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,070 | 52,853 | -0.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.0 | 4.0 | 100.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,369 | 4,848 | -9.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 80.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 80.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 36.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 3.2% | 44.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 84.9% change in INTC stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 108.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.73 | 43.87 | 84.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,101 | 52,853 | -0.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.9 | 4.0 | 108.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,319 | 4,848 | -10.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 84.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 84.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.4% | 43.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 20.5% | 45.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 80.3% change in INTC stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 153.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.33 | 43.87 | 80.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 63,054 | 52,853 | -16.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.6 | 4.0 | 153.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,120 | 4,848 | -15.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 80.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 80.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 70.3% | 45.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 102.2% | 48.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| INTC Return | 6% | -47% | 95% | -60% | 84% | 25% | 3% |
| Peers Return | 57% | -41% | 116% | 54% | 84% | 3% | 490% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 76% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| INTC Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 42% | 65% | 55% | 60% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| INTC Max Drawdown | -2% | -50% | -5% | -62% | -10% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -49% | -3% | -8% | -29% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMD, NVDA, QCOM, AVGO, MU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | INTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -34.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,127 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AMD, NVDA, QCOM, AVGO, MU
In The Past
Intel's stock fell -63.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/9/2021. A -63.3% loss requires a 172.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Intel (INTC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Intel:
- Intel is like Microsoft for computer processors.
- Intel is like General Electric for microchips.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Central Processing Units (CPUs) & Chipsets: Core components that power computers and manage data flow.
- System-on-Chip (SoC) & Multichip Packages: Integrated solutions that combine various components onto a single package for efficiency and specialized applications.
- Accelerators & Graphics Products: Hardware designed to enhance performance for specific computing tasks and render visual content.
- Memory & Storage Products: Components for data retention and retrieval within computing systems.
- Connectivity Products: Hardware enabling network communication, such as Wi-Fi, Ethernet, and Thunderbolt.
- High-Performance Compute & Embedded Solutions: Specialized computing platforms for demanding applications in sectors like retail, industrial, and healthcare.
- Autonomous Driving Solutions (Mobileye): Comprehensive systems for self-driving vehicles, including compute platforms, sensors, and AI software.
- Workload-Optimized Platforms: Tailored computing platforms and related products for cloud, enterprise, government, and communication service providers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intel's major customers are primarily other companies, as it sells its products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), original design manufacturers (ODMs), and cloud service providers (CSPs). Major customers known to operate in these categories include:
- Dell Technologies (DELL)
- HP Inc. (HPQ)
- Lenovo Group Limited (0992.HK) - Note: Primary listing is in Hong Kong
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - for its Amazon Web Services (AWS)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) - for its Azure cloud platform
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) - for its Google Cloud Platform (GCP)
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- ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
- Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
- Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)
- KLA Corporation (KLAC)
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Lip-Bu Tan Chief Executive Officer
Lip-Bu Tan was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Intel Corporation in March 2025. He previously served as CEO of Cadence Design Systems from 2009 to 2021, a period during which he doubled the company's revenue. Tan also founded Walden International in 1987, a global venture capital firm that has supported numerous successful technology startups. He holds a Bachelor of Science in physics, a Master of Science in nuclear engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and an MBA from the University of San Francisco.
David Zinsner Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
David Zinsner has been the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Intel Corporation since January 2022. Prior to joining Intel, he was the Executive Vice President and CFO at Micron Technology Inc. for nearly four years. His career also includes serving as President and Chief Operating Officer at Affirmed Networks, and as Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO at Analog Devices and Intersil Corp. At Intersil, Zinsner joined as treasurer when a private equity firm acquired the business from Harris Corporation, and he played a role in taking Intersil public.
April Miller Boise Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
April Miller Boise is the Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Intel Corporation, a role she assumed in July 2022. Before her tenure at Intel, she served as Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Eaton Corp., starting in 2020. Preceding Eaton, she held the position of Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary for Meritor Inc.
Naga Chandrasekaran Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Operations Officer of Intel Foundry, including Intel Foundry Services
Naga Chandrasekaran serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Operations Officer of Intel Foundry, with an expanded role that now includes Intel Foundry Services. He joined Intel in 2024 from Micron, where he was the Senior Vice President for technology development, bringing decades of experience in semiconductor manufacturing and research and development.
Sachin Katti Chief Technology and AI Officer
Sachin Katti holds the title of Chief Technology and AI Officer at Intel. He was appointed to this additional role in mid-April 2025, where he leads Intel's overall AI strategy, AI product roadmap, Intel Labs, and engagements with the startup and developer ecosystems. Prior to this expanded responsibility, Katti led Intel's networking business.
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Key Risks to Intel's Business
- Intense Competition and Market Share Erosion: Intel faces significant competitive pressures, particularly from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in the core CPU market, where Intel has experienced a substantial decline in market share. The company also lags behind NVIDIA in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence (AI) chip and GPU markets, missing out on crucial growth opportunities. The emergence of ARM-based processors further challenges Intel's traditional dominance in the x86 architecture.
- Manufacturing Delays, Execution Risks, and Losses in Foundry Business: Intel's manufacturing execution has faltered, with prolonged delays and setbacks in advancing its process technology nodes (e.g., 10nm to 7nm, and challenges with the 18A node). This has allowed competitors leveraging third-party foundries like TSMC to gain a technological edge. Furthermore, Intel's significant investments in its foundry business (Intel Foundry Services) have resulted in multi-billion dollar operating losses, with management not expecting break-even until at least 2027, highlighting substantial execution risk around capacity, yields, and capital returns.
- Financial Strain and High Capital Expenditure: Intel's financial health has deteriorated, marked by a significant revenue decline of over 30% between 2021 and 2024, plummeting gross margins, and negative free cash flow. The company's turnaround strategy (IDM 2.0) requires immense capital expenditure for foundry construction and technology development (targeting approximately $18 billion in gross capital expenditures for 2025), which places significant strain on its balance sheet and poses considerable financial risk.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The growing adoption of ARM-based processors across key computing segments represents a clear emerging threat. Specifically, Apple's successful transition to its own ARM-based Apple Silicon for its Mac computers has eliminated a significant chunk of Intel's traditional PC business. Concurrently, major cloud service providers are increasingly developing and deploying their own custom ARM-based chips (such as AWS Graviton) to power their data centers, directly challenging Intel's dominance in the server CPU market.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Intel's main products and services:
-
Client Computing Group (CCG) - PC Market:
- The worldwide PC market shipped 245.4 million units in 2024.
- The global gaming PC market was estimated at USD 61.84 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 129.93 billion by 2030.
- The global industrial personal computer (PC) market size was estimated at USD 6.48 billion in 2024.
-
Data Center and AI Group (DCAI) - Server CPUs and AI Chips:
- The worldwide server market value is projected to reach USD 366 billion in 2025.
- The global data center CPU market size was calculated at USD 13.16 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 28.04 billion by 2034.
- The global AI data centers market size is valued at USD 17.43 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 197.57 billion by 2035.
- Intel's custom AI processor business addresses a USD 100 billion total addressable market.
-
Mobileye - Autonomous Driving Solutions:
- The global autonomous vehicles market size was projected to grow from USD 224.67 billion in 2024 to USD 7197.33 billion by 2035.
- The global autonomous vehicle sensors market size was estimated at USD 9.95 billion in 2024 and is projected to surpass USD 32.29 billion by 2034.
-
Internet of Things Group (IOTG) - IoT Market:
- The global Internet of Things (IoT) market size was valued at USD 1.18 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2.65 trillion by 2030.
- The global IoT devices market size was estimated at USD 70.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 181.17 billion by 2030.
- The global IoT Edge Computing market size in 2024 stands at USD 7.8 billion and is expected to reach USD 28.7 billion by the end of 2033.
-
Programmable Solutions Group (PSG) - FPGA Market:
- The global field programmable gate array market size was valued at USD 12.72 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 13.92 billion in 2025 to USD 27.51 billion by 2032.
-
NAND Solutions Group (NSG) - NAND Flash Memory:
- The NAND Flash Memory Market size was valued at USD 71.53 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 161.88 billion by 2035.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
-
Growth in Data Center and AI (DCAI) Segment: Intel anticipates significant revenue growth from its Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment, particularly driven by increasing demand for AI accelerators and custom Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). The company reported that its custom AI processor revenue surpassed a $1 billion annual run rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a strong growth opportunity in this area. Management also highlighted the expanding role of CPUs within hyperscale and enterprise AI data centers as inference-driven AI workloads grow. Intel's Gaudi AI accelerators are a key part of this strategy, with the company seeing strong demand for these products.
-
Expansion of Intel Foundry Services (IFS) with Advanced Process Nodes: Intel is making substantial investments in its foundry business, aiming to become a leading external foundry. The success and ramp-up of advanced process technologies, such as Intel 18A, are critical to attracting external customers and boosting revenue. Intel expects its 18A node to reach commercially competitive yields in the first half of 2026, and its 14A node is projected to be market-ready by the end of 2027. Government support, including the CHIPS Act, further reinforces Intel's position as a "national champion" in semiconductor manufacturing.
-
Rebound in the Client Computing Group (CCG) Driven by AI PCs: While the Client Computing Group has faced challenges, Intel expects a rebound in this segment, primarily fueled by the growing adoption of "AI PCs." The company aims to ship over 100 million AI PCs by 2025. New product launches, including Lunar Lake, Arrow Lake, and Panther Lake CPUs, are also anticipated to contribute to revenue growth within the CCG as the broader PC market stabilizes and upgrades occur.
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Share Repurchases
- Intel's CEO stated in 2021 that the company would not be as focused on buybacks as in the past.
- As of December 27, 2025, Intel had an ongoing authorization to repurchase up to $110.0 billion in shares, with $7.24 billion remaining available.
Share Issuance
- Intel's net common equity issued/repurchased for 2025 was $19.506 billion, a 42.37% increase from 2024.
- In 2024, net common equity issued/repurchased amounted to $13.701 billion, which was a 148.57% increase from 2023.
- Shares outstanding for Intel in 2025 increased by 5.84% from 2024, reaching 4.53 billion.
Inbound Investments
- In Q3 2025, Intel received a $15 billion capital infusion from significant investors including the U.S. government, Nvidia, and SoftBank.
- The U.S. government acquired a 9.9% equity stake in Intel, valued at approximately $8.9 billion, through the conversion of CHIPS Act and defense grants.
- Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel common stock and entered a collaboration to jointly develop data center and PC products.
- SoftBank Group also made a $2 billion investment in Intel common stock.
Outbound Investments
- In the third quarter of 2025, Intel sold a majority ownership interest in Altera, a chip subsidiary, for $5.2 billion.
- Intel also divested a stake in Mobileye, resulting in billions of dollars in proceeds.
Capital Expenditures
- Intel's capital expenditures in 2024 totaled $23.94 billion, primarily directed towards expanding manufacturing capabilities, particularly in advanced process technologies.
- For the full fiscal year 2025, Intel is targeting a gross capital expenditure of $18 billion, a reduction from its previous target of $20 billion, with a focus on building out manufacturing capabilities and scaling its 18A process capacity.
- As of December 27, 2025, Intel had committed $9.1 billion for capital expenditures in 2026, with plans to increase spending on tools to address supply shortfalls for Intel 7, Intel 3, and 18A nodes.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| The Bear Case: How INTC Behaves During Market Shocks | 03/21/2026 | |
| Can Intel Stock Withstand These Pressures? | 03/11/2026 | |
| What Could Set Intel Stock on Fire | 02/27/2026 | |
| Does Intel Stock Lead the Pack? | 02/24/2026 | |
| Intel Stock Drops 6.2% In A Day, Now Is Not The Time To Buy The Stock | 02/11/2026 | |
| With Intel Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | 02/11/2026 | |
| The Hidden Dangers Facing Intel Stock | 02/06/2026 | |
| Intel Stock Surged 130%, Here's Why | 01/31/2026 | |
| Intel Stock (+11%): Foundry Deal Rumors + Insider Buy Spark a Relief Rally | 01/29/2026 | |
| Intel Stock Pays Out $92 Bil - Investors Take Note | 01/29/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Stress Testing INTC: Historical Drawdowns and Macro Risks | 03/21/2026 | |
| What Could Spark the Next Big Move In Intel Stock | 02/27/2026 | |
| Intel Stock vs Competition: Who Wins? | 02/24/2026 | |
| Intel Stock To $33? | 02/11/2026 | |
| What Could Go Wrong With Intel Stock? | 02/06/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to INTC.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | BMI | Badger Meter | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02282026 | VRNS | Varonis Systems | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | ITRI | Itron | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PEGA | Pegasystems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 08312024 | INTC | Intel | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.7% | 10.5% | -17.7% |
| 04302022 | INTC | Intel | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -32.1% | -25.6% | -41.5% |
| 10312020 | INTC | Intel | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.7% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 187.01 |
| Mkt Cap | 401.9 |
| Rev LTM | 55,486 |
| Op Inc LTM | 20,169 |
| FCF LTM | 11,604 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,635 |
| CFO LTM | 22,037 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14,334 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 20.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 31.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 34.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 401.9 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| P/EBIT | 40.6 |
| P/E | 30.4 |
| P/CFO | 31.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 71.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 252.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 56.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 204.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing Group (CCG) | 33,346 | 29,258 | 31,773 | 41,067 | 40,057 |
| Intel Foundry | 17,317 | 18,910 | 469 | 786 | |
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) | 16,125 | 12,635 | 19,445 | 22,691 | |
| All Other | 3,601 | 5,608 | 1,089 | 5,019 | 522 |
| Corporate unallocated | 0 | 0 | |||
| Intersegment eliminations | -17,288 | -17,957 | |||
| Network and Edge (NEX) | 5,774 | 8,409 | 7,976 | ||
| Mobileye | 1,869 | 1,386 | |||
| Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics | 774 | ||||
| Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics intersegment revenue | -675 | ||||
| Data Center Group | 26,103 | ||||
| Internet of Things Group | 3,974 | ||||
| Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group | 5,358 | ||||
| Programmable Solutions Group | 1,853 | ||||
| Total | 53,101 | 54,228 | 63,054 | 79,024 | 77,867 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing Group (CCG) | 11,594 | 9,513 | 5,569 | 15,704 | 15,129 |
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) | 1,414 | 1,620 | 1,300 | 8,439 | |
| All Other | -57 | 1,079 | -5,977 | -5,722 | -3,381 |
| Intersegment eliminations | -161 | -203 | |||
| Corporate unallocated | -11,177 | -5,165 | |||
| Intel Foundry | -13,291 | -6,955 | -281 | -23 | |
| Network and Edge (NEX) | 204 | 1,033 | 1,711 | ||
| Mobileye | 690 | 554 | |||
| Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics | -1,207 | ||||
| Data Center Group | 10,571 | ||||
| Internet of Things Group | 738 | ||||
| Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group | 361 | ||||
| Programmable Solutions Group | 260 | ||||
| Total | -11,678 | 93 | 2,334 | 19,456 | 23,678 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $43.87 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 212.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/17/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -19.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $46.54 | $34.18 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -5.7% | 28.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 74.6% | 65.7% |
| Downside Capture | 20.44 | 127.65 |
| Upside Capture | 140.93 | 170.72 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.1% | 46.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.14 | 1.72 | 1.80 | 2.03 | 1.50 | 1.63 |
| Up Beta | 2.85 | 6.88 | 6.23 | 3.20 | 1.76 | 1.68 |
| Down Beta | 0.51 | 0.85 | 1.20 | 1.92 | 1.30 | 1.48 |
| Up Capture | 225% | 159% | 120% | 338% | 232% | 547% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 20 | 29 | 62 | 120 | 380 |
| Down Capture | 253% | -45% | 45% | 98% | 107% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 21 | 32 | 62 | 129 | 368 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 81.3% | 65.4% | 1.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 26.6% | 26.6% | 0.86 | 49.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 18.9% | 0.64 | 47.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 48.2% | 27.0% | 1.45 | 5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.4% | 0.83 | 13.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 16.4% | -0.11 | 27.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.9% | 44.2% | -0.35 | 25.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | -5.5% | 48.0% | 0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 16.2% | 24.6% | 0.59 | 53.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 50.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.5% | 0.97 | 11.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 30.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.8% | 56.7% | 0.31 | 19.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 5.6% | 41.5% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.6% | 24.2% | 0.82 | 60.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.2% | 17.9% | 0.68 | 57.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.7% | 0.70 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 19.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 36.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.9% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 15.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/22/2026 | -17.0% | -10.4% | -19.7% |
| 10/23/2025 | 0.3% | 5.2% | -9.6% |
| 7/24/2025 | -8.5% | -12.5% | 9.6% |
| 4/24/2025 | -6.7% | -7.0% | -6.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.9% | -3.1% | 13.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 21.9% | 11.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
| 4/25/2024 | -9.2% | -13.1% | -12.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| # Negative | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| Median Positive | 6.6% | 4.7% | 10.8% |
| Median Negative | -8.5% | -9.9% | -11.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.7% | 21.9% | 36.0% |
| Max Negative | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 01/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
INTC Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is well below 1.0x, indicating a highly unfavorable risk/reward profile. The high probability of the bear case—driven by an eroding moat and intense, proven competition—outweighs the potential upside from a difficult and uncertain operational turnaround. The fundamental thesis is predicated on flawless execution against superior competitors, a low-probability bet.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Turnaround / Deep ValueIntel fits the 'Turnaround' archetype due to its high execution risk, capital-intensive strategy to regain manufacturing leadership (Intel Foundry Services), persistent market share loss in core segments, and negative free cash flow. The investment thesis is entirely dependent on a future strategic pivot and operational execution, not on current financial performance.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis for Intel is the successful execution of its foundry strategy, aiming to manufacture chips for external customers, and regaining process technology leadership with its 18A node. This pivot, heavily subsidized by the U.S. CHIPS Act, could create a new, high-margin revenue stream and restore its competitive moat, allowing it to capture a share of the secular growth in AI and high-performance computing.
- Intel is a primary beneficiary of the U.S. CHIPS Act, receiving up to $8.5 billion in direct funding and eligibility for up to $11 billion in federal loans, providing a capital advantage for its foundry build-out.
- The global AI chips market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 21.7% through 2034, creating a massive addressable market for leading-edge foundry services.
- Management has guided that the Intel Foundry segment is the core of its turnaround strategy, despite incurring multi-billion dollar operating losses in the near term to fund this transition.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant friction is Intel's ongoing loss of market share in the high-margin data center and burgeoning AI accelerator markets. Competitors AMD (server CPUs) and NVIDIA (AI GPUs) have established superior product performance and, in NVIDIA's case, a powerful software moat (CUDA). This competitive intrusion structurally impairs Intel's profitability and growth prospects in the most critical segments.
- AMD's data center market share continues to climb, with revenue up 39% YoY in its latest quarter, while Intel's DCAI segment grew only 9%.
- Intel's Gaudi AI accelerator has negligible market share compared to NVIDIA's dominance, which is protected by the powerful CUDA software ecosystem.
- AMD's EPYC server CPUs consistently outperform Intel's Xeon on performance and power efficiency, leading to a lower Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) for enterprise customers.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Data Center and AI (DCAI) Revenue YoY Growth | >15% | This is the primary battleground. Growth below this level, especially while AMD's is significantly higher, indicates continued market share loss and a failing competitive response. |
| Intel Foundry Services (IFS) Revenue & Customer Announcements | Secure one top-5 fabless customer for 18A process | This is the core of the turnaround thesis. Failure to secure a major, high-volume customer means the multi-billion dollar investment is not yielding results and the turnaround is failing. |
| GAAP Gross Margin | Consistently > 40% | Gross margins are a direct indicator of pricing power and manufacturing efficiency. A failure to expand margins back above 40% indicates that competitive pressure is unabated and manufacturing improvements are not materializing. |
The Foundry Bet: Manufacturing Turnaround vs. Competitive Reality
BULL VIEW
Government CHIPS Act subsidies provide a capital shield, allowing Intel to outspend rivals and establish a secure, domestic alternative to TSMC, eventually attracting major fabless customers to its 18A process.
CORE TENSION
Can Intel's aggressive, capital-intensive foundry strategy (IDM 2.0) and 18A process node reclaim technology leadership and reverse market share losses before capital markets lose patience with multi-billion dollar losses?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $11.7B-$12.7B represents a significant sequential decline and signals acute internal supply constraints, validating the Bear Stance that operational execution is failing.
BEAR VIEW
Years of manufacturing missteps, persistent yield issues, and intense competition from TSMC's proven ecosystem and AMD's design superiority will prevent the foundry from achieving profitability, turning it into a capital sinkhole.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Intel 18A manufacturing yield commentary and any announcement of a high-volume, external foundry customer. Gross margin guidance is also critical. |
Next 6 Months | Foundry Customer Announcements Watch: Press releases from major fabless designers (Nvidia, AMD, Apple, Qualcomm) announcing their foundry choice for sub-2nm products. |
Quarterly (Next update likely March/April 2026) | IDC/Gartner PC Market Forecast Watch: Further downward revisions to the 2026 PC shipment forecast, which would directly impact Intel's largest revenue segment (CCG). |
Late April / Early May 2026 | Competitor Earnings (AMD) Watch: Compare year-over-year growth of Intel's DCAI segment vs. AMD's Data Center segment to track market share shifts. |
Anytime | U.S. Commerce Dept. Export Rule Update Watch: New rules from the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) expanding the list of controlled semiconductor technologies for export to China. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
10/23/2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Intel reported Q3 results that beat expectations, with Intel Products revenue up 7% sequentially. The company provided Q4 revenue guidance of $12.8B to $13.8B. | Flat (0.3%) $38.16 -> $38.28 |
1/5/2026 | CES 2026 Presentation Details: At CES 2026, Intel provided updates on its product roadmap, announcing it was ramping all three Core Ultra Series 3 die packages, built on the 18A process. | Changed Little (-0.0%) $39.38 -> $39.37 |
1/14/2026 | Geopolitical Development Details: The White House issued Presidential Proclamation 11002, imposing a 25% tariff on a narrow set of advanced logic semiconductors from China, signaling continued trade tensions. | Rose significantly by 3.0% $47.29 -> $48.72 |
1/22/2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & Weak Guidance Details: Intel beat Q4 estimates but provided disastrous Q1 2026 revenue guidance ($11.7B-$12.7B), citing 'acute internal supply constraints,' causing a historic stock price drop. | Plummeted -17.0% $54.32 -> $45.07 |
2/2/2026 | Insider Trading Details: EVP and Chief Legal Officer, Boise April Miller, reported selling shares. Separately, CFO David Zinsner's recent purchase of ~$250k worth of stock was viewed positively by the market. | Surged +5.0% $46.47 -> $48.81 |
2/3/2026 | Competitor Earnings (AMD) Details: Key competitor AMD reported a Q4 2025 revenue beat with Data Center revenue up 39% YoY, highlighting Intel's continued market share loss in the most critical growth segment. | Flat (0.9%) $48.81 -> $49.25 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (72%), 6.5x the S&P 500, with Spiking near-term fear. The deeply Bearish sentiment, eroding competitive moat, and low earnings visibility create a high-risk 'knife catch' scenario, mandating a Conservative sizing.
Diversification Alternatives
ASML
SECTORUnlike Intel, ASML is a monopoly in the critical EUV lithography equipment needed for all advanced chip manufacturing. Its fate is not tied to its own manufacturing success but the success of the entire industry.
KLA
SECTORKLA dominates the process control and yield management market, a critical sub-segment of semiconductor equipment. It benefits from manufacturing complexity (which hurts Intel) and is foundry-agnostic.
Intel is executing a high-risk, high-reward transformation from a decelerating PC/Server chipmaker into a vertically integrated (IDM 2.0) leader, betting its future on regaining manufacturing process leadership with its 18A node and building a world-class foundry business to compete with TSMC.
Filter all news through the lens of the IDM 2.0 manufacturing turnaround and Intel Foundry Services (IFS) customer adoption.
Named customer commitments for the 18A process node; evidence of market share recapture from AMD in server CPUs (Xeon) or PCs (Core Ultra); Intel Gaudi AI accelerator design wins with hyperscalers; gross margin expansion above guidance.
Delays or yield issues with the 18A or 14A process nodes; continued market share loss to AMD in data centers or PCs; major IFS customers choosing TSMC for next-generation chips; failure to show a path to positive free cash flow.
Quarterly fluctuations in the PC market; single-benchmark wins or losses against competing chips; executive commentary on long-term, undated market TAMs; early-stage research collaborations without a clear product path.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful execution and high-volume manufacturing ramp of the Intel 18A process node. This is the lynchpin of the entire IDM 2.0 strategy, intended to restore manufacturing leadership, enable competitive products, and attract major external foundry customers like Microsoft. Success here would allow Intel to reclaim market share and expand margins, driving a significant re-rating.
PC Processors & Chipsets (Client Computing Group)
$32.8B TTM (55% of Total) · 27% MarginWhat It Is
Intel Core Ultra series processors for 'AI PCs'; Intel Core processors for mainstream laptops and desktops; other related chipsets and connectivity products.
Who Pays & How
Major PC OEMs like Dell, HP, and Lenovo pay on a per-unit basis for CPUs. They are locked into the x86 architecture, and while competitor AMD offers alternatives, deep integration and co-engineering create significant switching costs for specific product lines.
Competition
Data Center & AI Processors (DCAI)
$18.8B TTM (32% of Total) · 27% MarginWhat It Is
Intel Xeon Scalable processors for servers; Gaudi AI accelerators; custom ASICs for networking and AI.
Who Pays & How
Cloud service providers (e.g., Google, Amazon, Microsoft) and enterprise customers pay per-unit for server CPUs and accelerators. Switching costs are high due to software and platform validation, but performance-per-watt competition from AMD's EPYC and Nvidia's GPUs is intense.
Competition
Chip Manufacturing for Other Companies (Intel Foundry)
$18.0B TTM (13% of Total) · -56% MarginWhat It Is
Manufacturing services for external chip design companies on various process nodes, with a strategic focus on the upcoming Intel 18A node.
Who Pays & How
Primarily Intel's own product divisions currently. The strategic goal is to win high-volume orders from large 'fabless' chip designers (like Nvidia, Qualcomm) who currently use TSMC. A named customer win with Microsoft for an 18A chip is a key early proof point.
Competition
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