Herc (HRI)
Market Price (5/2/2026): $132.93 | Market Cap: $4.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Diversified Support Services
Herc (HRI)
Market Price (5/2/2026): $132.93Market Cap: $4.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Diversified Support Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.0% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 217% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.4% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% Key risksHRI key risks include [1] its high levels of indebtedness and [2] challenges associated with integrating acquisitions. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 217% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% |
| Key risksHRI key risks include [1] its high levels of indebtedness and [2] challenges associated with integrating acquisitions. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.7% change in HRI stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 142.67 | 133.13 | -6.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,876 | 4,606 | 18.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 1.0 | -21.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 33 | 33 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HRI | -6.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 37.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.8% | 43.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.4% change in HRI stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 140.75 | 133.13 | -5.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,876 | 4,606 | 18.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 1.0 | -20.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 33 | 33 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HRI | -5.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 42.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.2% | 47.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.2% change in HRI stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 107.21 | 133.13 | 24.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,431 | 4,606 | 34.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.9 | 1.0 | 8.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 33 | -14.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HRI | 24.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 43.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 33.6% | 49.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 41.0% change in HRI stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 58.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 94.41 | 133.13 | 41.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,912 | 4,606 | 58.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 33 | -12.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 41.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HRI | 41.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 48.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 80.9% | 58.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HRI Return | 136% | -14% | 16% | 29% | -20% | -14% | 108% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 6% | 29% | 5% | 28% | 29% | 207% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HRI Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 45% | 48% | 55% | 55% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HRI Max Drawdown | -5% | -44% | -28% | -15% | -46% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | -28% | -12% | -11% | -19% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: URI, CAT, DE, OSK, TEX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HRI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 290 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 236 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -43.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -71.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 248.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 201 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -49.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.1% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 316 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Herc's stock fell -43.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 75.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | HRI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 290 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 236 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -43.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -71.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 248.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 201 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -49.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.1% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 316 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Herc's stock fell -43.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 75.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Herc (HRI)
Herc Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment. The company also provides ProSolutions, an industry specific solution-based services, which include power generation, climate control, remediation and restoration, pump, trench shoring, and studio and production equipment; and ProContractor professional grade tools. In addition, it offers various services, including repair, maintenance, equipment management, and safety training; and equipment re-rental and on-site support services, as well as ancillary services, such as equipment transport, rental protection, cleaning, refueling, and labor. Further, the company sells used equipment and contractor supplies, such as construction consumables, tools, small equipment, and safety supplies. It serves non-residential and residential construction, specialty trade, restoration, remediation and environment, and facility maintenance contractors; industrial manufacturing industries, including automotive and aerospace, power, metals and mining, agriculture, pulp, paper and wood, food and beverage, and refineries and petrochemical industries; infrastructure and government sectors; and commercial facilities, hospitality, healthcare, recreation, entertainment production, and special event management customers. The company sells its products through its sales team and industry catalogs, as well as through participation and sponsorship of industry events, trade shows, and Internet. Herc Holdings Inc. was founded in 1965 and is based in Bonita Springs, Florida.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Herc:
- Enterprise Rent-A-Car for industrial and construction equipment.
- The U-Haul of professional machinery and project tools.
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- Equipment Rental: Herc provides a wide range of rental equipment including aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks, trailers, air compressors, compaction, lighting, and studio and production gear.
- ProSolutions: These are industry-specific solution-based services such as power generation, climate control, remediation and restoration, pump services, and trench shoring.
- ProContractor Professional Tools: The company offers rental of professional-grade tools for various applications.
- Equipment Maintenance & Support Services: Herc provides repair, maintenance, equipment management, safety training, transport, rental protection, cleaning, refueling, and on-site support services.
- Used Equipment Sales: The company sells its used rental equipment directly to customers.
- Contractor Supplies Sales: Herc offers sales of construction consumables, tools, small equipment, and safety supplies.
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Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) primarily serves other companies and organizations. Based on the provided description, its major customers are:- Construction and related contractors, including non-residential and residential construction, specialty trade, restoration, remediation and environment, and facility maintenance contractors.
- Industrial manufacturing industries, such as automotive and aerospace, power, metals and mining, agriculture, pulp, paper and wood, food and beverage, and refineries and petrochemical industries.
- Infrastructure and government sectors.
- Commercial facilities, hospitality, healthcare, recreation, entertainment production, and special event management customers.
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- Caterpillar (CAT)
- Terex Corporation (TEX)
- Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)
- John Deere (DE)
- Komatsu (TYO:6301)
- AB Volvo (STO:VOLV-B)
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```htmlLawrence H. Silber, Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Silber joined Herc Rentals Inc. in May 2015. He served as an executive advisor at Court Square Capital Partners, LLP, a private equity firm, from 2014 to 2015. Prior to that, he was Chief Operating Officer of Hayward Industries from 2008 to 2012. From 1978 to 2008, Mr. Silber held various leadership roles at Ingersoll-Rand plc, a publicly traded manufacturer, where he led major business groups including Utility Equipment, Rental and Remarketing, and the Equipment and Services businesses. He also led the divestiture and transition of certain businesses for Ingersoll Rand.
Aaron D. Birnbaum, President and Chief Operating Officer
Effective January 1, 2026, Mr. Birnbaum serves as President and Chief Operating Officer. He has over 35 years of experience in the equipment rental industry, all of which have been with Herc Rentals Inc. and its predecessor business. He served as Chief Operating Officer since January 2020, overseeing sales, operations, fleet, and safety activities. Throughout his career, Mr. Birnbaum has held leadership responsibilities related to strategic planning, operational execution, and mergers and acquisitions.
Mark Humphrey, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Humphrey was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in March 2023. He joined Herc Holdings in April 2017, initially serving as the company's Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer. Before joining Herc, Mr. Humphrey was the Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer of Alico, Inc. His nearly 30-year career also includes roles as Chief Financial Officer for Compass Management Group and approximately 10 years in public accounting with PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
S. Wade Sheek, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
Mr. Sheek was appointed Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary in November 2019. He brings over 18 years of experience in the legal profession, primarily leading corporate legal organizations. His prior roles include General Counsel and Secretary for Republic Airways Holdings Inc. and Deputy General Counsel and Corporate Secretary at Allegion plc, where he was responsible for SEC matters, corporate governance, and M&A initiatives. Earlier in his career, he served as Senior Associate General Counsel and Assistant Secretary at Ingersoll-Rand plc, where he led the spin-off of the company's security technology business, and held key securities and corporate counsel positions at UnitedHealth Group Incorporated and The Home Depot.
Christian Cunningham, Chief Human Resources Officer
Mr. Cunningham joined Herc Holdings in September 2014. Before joining the company, he served as Vice President, Corporate HR and HR Services at DFC Global Corporation. He also held positions as Vice President, HR, compensation, and benefits at Sunoco Inc. and Sunoco Logistics, and as Vice President, Global Compensation and Strategy at ARAMARK.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) faces several key risks inherent to its business model and recent strategic activities. The most significant risks include its high financial leverage, the complexities associated with integrating recent acquisitions, and the cyclical and seasonal nature of the equipment rental industry. Here are the key risks to Herc Holdings Inc.: * **High Financial Leverage and Debt Load** Herc Holdings Inc. carries a significant debt load, largely due to its growth-by-acquisition strategy, including the recent acquisition of H&E Equipment Services. As of late 2025, the company's net debt to Adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio was 3.8 times, which is above its target range of 2 to 3 times, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes. The company's debt-to-equity ratio was approximately 5.07 to 5.17, indicating a heavy reliance on debt financing. While liquidity is a strength, solvency is a key concern, with management focused on reducing leverage to meet its target within two years of the acquisition. * **Integration Challenges of Acquisitions** The acquisition of H&E Equipment Services in June 2025 significantly expanded Herc Holdings Inc.'s footprint and fleet, but it also introduced substantial operational complexity and execution risk. There is a risk that the company may not capture the expected cost and revenue synergies as planned, or that integration efforts could disrupt ongoing operations or experience delays. Any shortfall or delay in realizing these anticipated synergies could negatively impact operating results, cash flows, earnings per share, and market sentiment, potentially leading to a decline in the company's stock price. * **Cyclical and Seasonal Nature of the Industry** The demand for equipment rental services is inherently tied to the cyclical nature of industries Herc Holdings Inc. serves, such as non-residential and residential construction, industrial manufacturing, and infrastructure. Economic downturns, slower local construction activity (potentially influenced by interest rates), and uneven market demand can lead to fluctuations in revenue and profitability. Additionally, the equipment rental industry experiences seasonality, with demand typically waning during winter months, which necessitates careful management of fleet capacity and staffing levels.AI Analysis | Feedback
The emergence of online equipment rental marketplaces and peer-to-peer sharing platforms poses a clear emerging threat. These technology-driven platforms can aggregate a wide range of equipment from various owners, including contractors with idle machinery, offering more flexible and potentially lower-cost rental options than traditional rental companies. This model directly challenges Herc's core business by providing alternative channels for customers to access equipment, particularly for smaller tools and more common machinery, thereby impacting market share and pricing dynamics.
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Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) operates in several addressable markets related to equipment rental and specialized services. The market sizes vary by product or service and region, with the company having a significant presence primarily in North America.
Equipment Rental Market
- Global Equipment Rental Market: The global equipment rental market was valued at approximately $145 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around $250 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.1%. Other estimates place the global construction equipment rental market at USD 132.35 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 229.19 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.4%. Another source estimates the global construction equipment rental market size at USD 213.68 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 339.04 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 6.1%. The broader machinery rental and leasing market size in 2026 is estimated at USD 142.73 billion, with projections showing USD 181.04 billion by 2031, growing at a 4.86% CAGR.
- North America Equipment Rental Market: The American Rental Association (ARA) projected the overall equipment rental market in North America to hit nearly $82.6 billion in 2025. The North American construction equipment rental market generated a revenue of USD 66,421.3 million in 2025 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% from 2026 to 2033, reaching USD 93,573.0 million. North America is identified as the largest market for rental equipment, with the U.S. holding approximately 70% of the market share. The U.S. equipment rental market alone grew to $47.8 billion in 2021. Another estimate for the North American construction equipment rental market valued it at USD 67.86 billion in 2024 and anticipates it to reach USD 71.89 billion in 2025. The North American construction equipment rental market was valued at USD 42,648.3 million in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 58,492.3 million by 2029, growing at a 4.6% CAGR.
ProSolutions (Specialty Services)
- Power Generation Rental Market: The global power rental market size was estimated at USD 11.76 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 19.10 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 6.3%. Another report valued the rental power generation market at USD 23.7 billion in 2023, with a projection to grow to USD 35.4 billion by 2032 at a CAGR of 6.04% from 2025 to 2034. The power generator rental market size in 2026 is estimated at USD 14.05 billion and is projected to grow to USD 18.75 billion by 2031 at a 5.95% CAGR. North America is the largest market for rental power generation, holding approximately 45% of the global market share.
- Climate Control (HVAC Rental Services) Market: The global HVAC rental services market size was estimated at USD 2,228.5 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 3,124.5 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.9%. The global HVAC rental equipment market was valued at USD 4.70 billion in 2020 and is projected to grow to USD 7.25 billion by 2030. North America holds the largest share of the HVAC Rental Equipment Market, accounting for 40% of the total market share. The global temperature control rental services market size is forecasted to be worth USD 5.73 billion in 2026, expected to achieve USD 10.53 billion by 2035 with a CAGR of 7.9%.
- Pump Rental Market: The global industrial pump rental market size is expected to increase by USD 3.25 billion, at a CAGR of 9% from 2024 to 2029. This market is estimated to be valued at approximately USD 3.97 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 7.22 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 7.78%. North America dominates the industrial pump rental market with a 40–45% share. Another report values the global industrial pump rental market at USD 6.48 billion in 2024 and projects it to reach USD 11.3 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 5.20%.
- Trench Shoring Rental Market: The North American trench shoring equipment rental market reached revenues of $1,858.5 million in 2022 and is projected to maintain a CAGR of over 6.0% from 2022 to 2029. The U.S. trench shoring equipment market size was estimated at USD 455.6 million in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.8% from 2024 to 2030, reaching USD 677.0 million by 2030. The global trench shoring equipment market is projected to reach USD 2.84 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.7% during the forecast period (2024-2032).
- Studio and Production Equipment Rental Market: The global film & video equipment rental market size was estimated at USD 26.91 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 42.78 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 6.84%. The global studio equipment market was valued at approximately USD 6.25 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 10.12 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.8% from 2025 to 2033. The global film equipment rental market, estimated at $5 billion in 2025, is projected to exhibit a CAGR of approximately 8% from 2025 to 2033, reaching a value exceeding $9 billion by the end of the forecast period. Herc's "Cinelease studio entertainment business" is a component of this market.
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Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies and market trends:
- Realizing Revenue Synergies from Acquisitions: A significant driver of future revenue growth is the integration of the H&E Equipment Services acquisition, completed in 2025. Herc anticipates realizing incremental revenue synergies projected to be approximately $100 million to $120 million in 2026 alone. This strategic expansion significantly increased Herc's footprint and fleet, with the focus now on maximizing the value from this integration.
- Expansion of Specialty Equipment and Solutions: Herc is strategically expanding its specialty fleet and increasing its presence in specialty locations. The company plans to increase the proportion of specialty gear within its fleet from approximately 18% to the low 20s over the next three years, demonstrating a commitment to higher-margin offerings and solution-based services.
- Capitalizing on Mega Projects and Infrastructure Spending: Herc is well-positioned to benefit from substantial investments in large-scale infrastructure and mega projects, including chip plants, data centers, and renewable energy projects. These high-value projects are a consistent source of demand for equipment rentals, with Herc targeting a 10%-15% market share in this segment.
- Organic Growth in Core Equipment Rental and Local Markets: The company expects continued organic growth through a combination of positive pricing and increased rental volume in its core equipment rental business. While 2026 guidance assumes a neutral local market environment, improvements are anticipated in 2027, driven by factors such as interest rate cuts and sustained demand from non-residential construction, industrial spending, and specialty trade contractors.
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Share Repurchases
- Herc Holdings completed a share repurchase program, initially announced in March 2014, repurchasing 4,626,401 shares for $838.4 million by December 31, 2025.
- The company reported $115 million in common stock repurchases in 2022 and $120 million in 2023.
- As of December 31, 2021, approximately $395.9 million remained available for share repurchases under the 2014 program.
Share Issuance
- In June 2025, as part of the H&E Equipment Services acquisition, Herc Holdings issued 0.1287 shares of its common stock per H&E share to H&E shareholders, in addition to cash.
- Herc Holdings' shares outstanding for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, increased by 16.84% year-over-year to 0.033 billion.
- Over a two-year period, the company has diluted shareholders, with the share count growing by 17.6%.
Outbound Investments
- Herc Holdings completed its largest acquisition, H&E Equipment Services, in June 2025, which was described as a transformative move significantly expanding its North American footprint.
- The H&E acquisition added over 120 locations and a $10 billion fleet, increasing Herc's total footprint to more than 600 locations.
- The company's net debt increased to $8.1 billion, and its net leverage rose to 3.95x in 2025, following $4.257 billion in acquisition spending related to the H&E deal.
Capital Expenditures
- Net rental equipment capital expenditures for the full year 2025 were reported at $649 million.
- Herc Holdings projects net rental equipment capital expenditures for 2026 to be between $500 million and $800 million, with gross capital expenditures estimated to range from $800 million to $1.1 billion.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is on investing in and optimizing its fleet, capitalizing on recent acquisitions and greenfield opportunities, and enhancing its diversified product portfolio.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Herc Stock On Fire: Up 25% With 5-Day Winning Streak | 04/29/2026 | |
| Herc (HRI) -8.8%: February Jobs Miss Sparks Cyclical Sell-Off | 03/07/2026 | |
| With Herc Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | 02/26/2026 | |
| Herc Stock Surges 6.9% In A Single Day, Time To Buy The Stock? | 02/21/2026 | |
| Does Herc Stock Lead the Pack? | 02/21/2026 | |
| Herc Earnings Notes | 12/28/2026 | |
| As HRI Surges 13% in a Week, LNG's Story Stands Out | 08/18/2025 | |
| With HRI Up 13% in a Week, Is It Time to Compare It Against SKYW? | 08/18/2025 | |
| With HRI Up 13% in a Week, Is It Time to Compare It Against WLFC? | 08/18/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| 5-Day Rally Sends Herc Stock Up 25% | 04/29/2026 | |
| Would You Still Hold Herc Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | 02/26/2026 | |
| How Does Herc Stock Compare With Peers? | 02/21/2026 | |
| Herc Stock To $107? | 02/21/2026 |
Trade Ideas
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| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| 03202026 | HRI | Herc | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 26.4% | 26.4% | -9.3% |
| 02282025 | HRI | Herc | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.8% | -0.5% | -28.7% |
| 10312023 | HRI | Herc | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 35.2% | 100.8% | -0.4% |
| 04302023 | HRI | Herc | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.6% | 56.0% | -5.7% |
| 06302022 | HRI | Herc | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 47.7% | 54.8% | -0.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 366.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 34.8 |
| Rev LTM | 13,394 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,514 |
| FCF LTM | 617 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 572 |
| CFO LTM | 3,235 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,076 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -10.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 34.8 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.5 |
| P/EBIT | 12.5 |
| P/E | 21.1 |
| P/CFO | 11.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 60.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 82.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 35.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 8.7% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $133.13 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/01/2016 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -26.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $115.75 | $132.19 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 15.0% | 0.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 70.4% | 60.9% |
| Downside Capture | 0.86 | 1.09 |
| Upside Capture | 85.31 | 166.16 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 37.1% | 43.3% |
HRI Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.93 | 2.00 | 1.76 | 1.91 | 2.11 | 1.67 |
| Up Beta | 1.90 | 1.76 | 2.49 | 2.52 | 2.69 | 1.73 |
| Down Beta | 1.82 | 2.48 | 1.99 | 1.97 | 1.95 | 1.68 |
| Up Capture | 120% | 148% | 84% | 155% | 240% | 418% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 19 | 28 | 55 | 121 | 375 |
| Down Capture | -720% | 242% | 185% | 163% | 161% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 24 | 36 | 70 | 131 | 378 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRI | 24.3% | 60.8% | 0.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 33.7% | 15.4% | 1.68 | 49.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.6% | 12.5% | 1.88 | 43.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.5% | 27.2% | 1.20 | 0.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 51.5% | 17.9% | 2.20 | -14.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.67 | 27.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.2% | 42.1% | -0.36 | 18.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRI | 5.9% | 51.7% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 17.4% | 0.59 | 63.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 54.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 17.9% | 0.94 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.3% | 19.1% | 0.61 | 14.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 44.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.4% | 56.1% | 0.35 | 19.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRI | 15.9% | 55.8% | 0.50 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 19.9% | 0.61 | 67.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 58.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.6% | 15.9% | 0.71 | 2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 25.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 47.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 16.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | 7.5% | ||
| 2/17/2026 | -13.3% | -15.2% | -36.5% |
| 10/28/2025 | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
| 7/29/2025 | -17.5% | -24.0% | -13.8% |
| 2/13/2025 | -6.0% | -13.6% | -37.6% |
| 10/22/2024 | 17.5% | 26.9% | 27.5% |
| 7/23/2024 | 6.3% | 6.1% | -5.5% |
| 4/23/2024 | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 3.8% | 15.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -8.8% | -19.9% |
| Max Positive | 17.5% | 26.9% | 37.4% |
| Max Negative | -17.5% | -24.0% | -37.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/21/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Equipment rental revenue | 4.28 Bil | 4.34 Bil | 4.40 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.34 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 2.00 Bil | 2.05 Bil | 2.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.05 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net rental equipment capital expenditures | 500.00 Mil | 650.00 Mil | 800.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 650.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross capex | 800.00 Mil | 950.00 Mil | 1.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 950.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Equipment rental revenue | 4.28 Bil | 4.34 Bil | 4.40 Bil | 14.1% | Higher New | Actual: 3.80 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 2.00 Bil | 2.05 Bil | 2.10 Bil | 10.8% | Higher New | Actual: 1.85 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net rental equipment capital expenditures | 500.00 Mil | 650.00 Mil | 800.00 Mil | 30.0% | Higher New | Actual: 500.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Gross capex | 800.00 Mil | 950.00 Mil | 1.10 Bil | -5.0% | Lower New | Actual: 1.00 Bil for 2025 | |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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