Tearsheet

Herc (HRI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $144.03 | Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors

Herc (HRI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $144.03
Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 251%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.1%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.8%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.1%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 251%
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.8%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HRI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) experienced significant stock movements in early 2024, influenced by its financial performance and outlook.

1. Strong Full-Year 2023 Results and Positive 2024 Guidance. Herc Holdings reported record total revenues of $3.282 billion for the full year 2023, a 20% increase, and an 18% increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $1.452 billion. The company also announced a positive outlook for 2024, projecting 7% to 10% equipment rental revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA between $1.55 billion and $1.60 billion. This strong performance and optimistic forecast likely contributed to positive investor sentiment.

2. Increased Quarterly Dividend. Herc Holdings increased its quarterly dividend to $0.665 per share, a 5% increase, payable in March 2024. An increase in dividends often signals financial health and can attract income-focused investors, positively impacting stock price.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HRI Return36%136%-14%16%29%-29%190%
Peers Return26%36%-10%40%9%6%148%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HRI Win Rate67%67%50%42%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate43%50%28%50%48%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HRI Max Drawdown-74%-5%-44%-28%-15%-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-2%-25%-6%-8%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WSO, UHAL, URI, FERG, FAST.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHRIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-55.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven127.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven852 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-74.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven287.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven237 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-65.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven188.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven750 days120 days

Compare to WSO, UHAL, URI, FERG, FAST


In The Past

Herc's stock fell -55.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -55.9% loss requires a 127.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Herc (HRI)

Better Bets than Herc (HRI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HRI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
HRI_2282025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02282025HRIHercDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.8%-7.1%-28.7%
HRI_10312023_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312023HRIHercDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
35.2%100.8%-0.4%
HRI_4302023_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04302023HRIHercDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.6%56.0%-5.7%
HRI_6302022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy06302022HRIHercDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
47.7%54.8%-0.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
HRI_2282025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02282025HRIHercDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.8%-7.1%-28.7%
HRI_10312023_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312023HRIHercDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
35.2%100.8%-0.4%
HRI_4302023_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04302023HRIHercDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.6%56.0%-5.7%
HRI_6302022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy06302022HRIHercDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
47.7%54.8%-0.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Herc

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HRIWSOUHALURIFERGFASTMedian
NameHerc Watsco U-Haul United R.Ferguson.Fastenal  
Mkt Price143.89355.8653.89813.66252.8441.22198.37
Mkt Cap4.813.510.652.249.847.330.4
Rev LTM3,8767,4145,97215,98630,7627,9987,706
Op Inc LTM4627347004,0092,6831,6161,175
FCF LTM-186517-1,8204501,603965484
FCF 3Y Avg-206540-1,7174461,7951,069493
CFO LTM1,1015491,6204,9821,9081,2101,415
CFO 3Y Avg1,1255731,5334,8122,1681,2791,406

Growth & Margins

HRIWSOUHALURIFERGFASTMedian
NameHerc Watsco U-Haul United R.Ferguson.Fastenal  
Rev Chg LTM12.4%-0.7%5.9%6.7%3.8%6.9%6.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg15.6%1.0%0.5%13.2%2.5%5.5%4.0%
Rev Chg Q35.2%-4.3%3.7%5.9%6.9%11.7%6.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.6%-1.2%1.0%1.5%1.8%2.9%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM11.9%9.9%11.7%25.1%8.7%20.2%11.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg17.7%10.2%16.6%26.5%9.0%20.4%17.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.8%-0.1%-0.6%-0.4%0.2%0.1%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM28.4%7.4%27.1%31.2%6.2%15.1%21.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg32.1%7.7%26.5%32.2%7.2%16.9%21.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-4.8%7.0%-30.5%2.8%5.2%12.1%4.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-6.1%7.3%-29.6%2.9%6.0%14.2%4.5%

Valuation

HRIWSOUHALURIFERGFASTMedian
NameHerc Watsco U-Haul United R.Ferguson.Fastenal  
Mkt Cap4.813.510.652.249.847.330.4
P/S1.02.11.93.81.47.02.0
P/EBIT13.420.917.915.016.434.717.2
P/E-56.129.348.124.223.145.926.8
P/CFO3.527.96.912.322.546.517.4
Total Yield0.4%6.4%2.4%4.9%4.3%3.9%4.1%
Dividend Yield2.1%3.0%0.3%0.7%0.0%1.7%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-6.0%3.4%-14.2%0.9%-2.7%0.9%
D/E2.50.00.70.20.10.00.2
Net D/E2.5-0.00.50.20.10.00.2

Returns

HRIWSOUHALURIFERGFASTMedian
NameHerc Watsco U-Haul United R.Ferguson.Fastenal  
1M Rtn5.5%-1.5%1.6%-4.9%2.1%0.4%1.0%
3M Rtn13.9%-8.8%-5.7%-13.7%10.4%-16.3%-7.2%
6M Rtn21.2%-18.9%-14.8%17.3%17.9%1.8%9.6%
12M Rtn-35.9%-32.7%-25.5%-5.5%16.4%1.7%-15.5%
3Y Rtn15.6%44.6%-19.4%135.6%-72.8%44.6%
1M Excs Rtn5.6%-1.5%1.6%-4.9%2.2%0.5%1.0%
3M Excs Rtn6.2%-16.4%-12.9%-20.8%1.2%-22.9%-14.6%
6M Excs Rtn6.5%-33.6%-29.6%2.6%3.1%-12.9%-5.2%
12M Excs Rtn-50.4%-47.3%-37.3%-18.8%5.6%-12.8%-28.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-54.6%-30.1%-82.5%68.9%-0.8%-30.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Equipment rental3,2822,5521,9101,5441,702
Sales of new equipment, parts and supplies 36302844
Sales of rental equipment 125113198243
Service and other revenues 27201110
Total3,2822,7402,0731,7811,999


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,424,947
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120250.4%
Average Daily Volume446,175
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.43
Basic Shares Quantity33,200,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025422202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024213202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241022202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024723202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024423202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231024202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023725202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023420202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221020202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022721202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022421202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021210202210-K 12/31/2021