Robinhood Markets (HOOD)
Market Price (5/3/2026): $73.41 | Market Cap: $66.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Investment Banking & Brokerage
Robinhood Markets (HOOD)
Market Price (5/3/2026): $73.41Market Cap: $66.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Investment Banking & Brokerage
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%, CFO LTM is 3.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.2 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, AI in Financial Services, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 31x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 22x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 35x Key risksHOOD key risks include [1] regulatory threats targeting its core payment for order flow (PFOF) revenue model and [2] scrutiny over past and present compliance, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%, CFO LTM is 3.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.2 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, AI in Financial Services, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 31x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 22x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 35x |
| Key risksHOOD key risks include [1] regulatory threats targeting its core payment for order flow (PFOF) revenue model and [2] scrutiny over past and present compliance, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Robinhood missed Q1 2026 earnings and revenue estimates.
Robinhood reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.38 for the first quarter of 2026, falling short of the consensus analyst estimates ranging from $0.39 to $0.43. Additionally, total net revenues for the quarter were $1.07 billion, missing analyst forecasts that ranged from $1.13 billion to $1.17 billion.
2. Cryptocurrency trading revenue experienced a significant decline.
A core reason for the revenue miss was a substantial 47% year-over-year decrease in cryptocurrency transaction revenue, which dropped to $134 million in Q1 2026. This decline was exacerbated by a compression in the crypto take rate, which was approximately 7 basis points lower in the quarter.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.0% change in HOOD stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 99.48 | 73.66 | -26.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,204 | 4,613 | 9.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 52.2% | 41.1% | -21.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.3 | 34.9 | -13.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 889 | 899 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOOD | -26.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 74.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | -2.3% | 56.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -49.8% change in HOOD stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -51.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 146.78 | 73.66 | -49.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,567 | 4,613 | 29.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 50.1% | 41.1% | -18.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 72.4 | 34.9 | -51.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 882 | 899 | -1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -49.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOOD | -49.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 66.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -0.0% | 42.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.0% change in HOOD stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 56.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 49.11 | 73.66 | 50.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,951 | 4,613 | 56.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 47.8% | 41.1% | -14.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.8 | 34.9 | 13.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 884 | 899 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOOD | 50.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 58.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.1% | 40.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 732.3% change in HOOD stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 239.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.85 | 73.66 | 732.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,358 | 4,613 | 239.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.8 | 14.4 | 147.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 889 | 899 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 732.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOOD | 732.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 60.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 64.3% | 49.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HOOD Return | -49% | -54% | 57% | 192% | 204% | -36% | 109% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -41% | 127% | 55% | 21% | -10% | 177% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HOOD Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 46% | 44% | 56% | 58% | 57% | 30% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HOOD Max Drawdown | -51% | -61% | -3% | -17% | -8% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -55% | -13% | -20% | -29% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SCHW, IBKR, COIN, BULL, SOFI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HOOD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -26.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.9% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -62.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 643 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Robinhood Markets's stock fell -42.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 73.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | HOOD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -26.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.9% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -62.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 643 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Robinhood Markets's stock fell -42.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 73.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Robinhood Markets (HOOD)
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Venmo for investing: It made investing in stocks and crypto as easy and accessible on a smartphone as sending money to a friend.
2. Charles Schwab or Fidelity for the smartphone generation: It's a modern, app-first brokerage platform offering stocks, ETFs, options, and crypto, designed for ease of use by new investors.
3. An E*TRADE that also lets you trade crypto: It combines traditional online stock and options trading with cryptocurrency trading, all within one platform.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) offers the following major products and services:
- Investment Platform: A brokerage service that enables users to invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), options, gold, and cryptocurrencies.
- Learning and Education Content: Provides various resources including "Snacks" for business news, "Learn" for articles and guides, and newsfeeds with premium financial news.
- Watchlists and Alerts: Tools that allow users to create custom watchlists and set alerts to monitor securities, ETFs, and cryptocurrencies.
- Cash Management Services: Financial services designed to assist users with managing their cash.
- First Trade Recommendations: Guidance provided to new customers who have not yet placed their initial trade.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Robinhood Markets, Inc. primarily serves individual customers. Based on the company's description, its customer base can be categorized as follows:
- Novice and Entry-Level Investors: These customers are new to investing or require significant guidance. They are attracted to Robinhood's extensive learning and education solutions, such as Snacks, Learn articles, Newsfeeds, and First trade recommendations, which aim to simplify financial concepts and trading.
- Self-Directed Retail Investors and Traders: This category includes individuals who actively manage their own portfolios and make independent investment decisions. They utilize the platform to invest in a range of assets, including stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), options, and gold, and benefit from features like custom watchlists and alerts.
- Cryptocurrency Investors: A distinct segment of customers primarily interested in trading digital assets. Robinhood's platform offers access to various cryptocurrencies, appealing to individuals looking to diversify their portfolios into the crypto market alongside traditional investments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Vlad Tenev, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
Vlad Tenev co-founded Robinhood in 2013 with Baiju Bhatt to democratize finance. He served as Co-CEO and Co-President until November 2020, when he became the sole CEO. Before Robinhood, Tenev and Bhatt co-founded two other financial technology companies in New York: Celeris, a high-frequency trading software company, and Chronos Research, which sold low-latency software to trading firms and banks. He holds a B.S. in Mathematics from Stanford University and an M.S. in Mathematics from UCLA. Tenev was born in Varna, Bulgaria, and immigrated to the U.S. at age five; his parents both worked for the World Bank.
Shiv Verma, Chief Financial Officer
Shiv Verma currently serves as the Chief Financial Officer, having taken over from Jason Warnick in Q1. He joined Robinhood in 2018 and previously held the position of Senior Vice President of Finance and Strategy and Treasurer. Before his tenure at Robinhood, Verma worked as a baseball operations analyst for the Oakland Athletics and as a Vice President and portfolio manager at PIMCO. He earned a bachelor's degree in economics from Stanford University and an MBA from UCLA Anderson School of Management.
Baiju Bhatt, Co-Founder and Board Director
Baiju Bhatt co-founded Robinhood in 2013 with Vlad Tenev. He served as Co-CEO and Co-President alongside Tenev until November 2020, and subsequently as Chief Creative Officer from 2021 to March 2024. Prior to Robinhood, Bhatt, with Tenev, started two other finance companies in New York City: Celeris and Chronos Research. Bhatt holds a B.S. in Physics and an M.S. in Mathematics from Stanford University, where he met Tenev. He is also the founder of Aetherflux, a space-based solar energy company.
Dan Gallagher, Chief Legal, Compliance and Corporate Affairs Officer
Dan Gallagher has been responsible for overseeing Robinhood's legal, compliance, and government affairs since 2018. His work includes guiding the company through various regulatory investigations and establishing robust compliance frameworks. Gallagher holds a J.D. from Harvard Law School and a B.A. in Political Science from UC Berkeley. His professional background features partnerships at law firms advising fintech companies and serving as General Counsel at prominent financial institutions.
Walter Koller, Chief Operating Officer, Robinhood Financial
Walter Koller has served as the Chief Operating Officer of Robinhood Financial since 2021. In this role, he is responsible for managing the company's operations, optimizing settlement processes, and enhancing clearing and customer service. Koller has implemented operational controls that reportedly reduced transaction failures by 40%. He holds a BBA in Finance from Temple University and possesses several FINRA licenses. His extensive career spans over three decades in the securities industry, including roles as CEO/COO at Fiserv Securities and various Managing Director positions at Société Générale.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Robinhood Markets (HOOD) include regulatory and legal scrutiny, dependence on market volatility and cyclicality, and intense competition.
- Regulatory and Legal Scrutiny: Robinhood operates in a highly regulated financial environment and has repeatedly faced significant penalties and investigations from regulatory bodies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). These actions stem from various violations, including failures in anti-money laundering (AML) programs, record-keeping deficiencies, non-compliance with short-sale rules, and cybersecurity vulnerabilities. A fundamental aspect of Robinhood's business model, payment for order flow (PFOF), remains under intense regulatory review. Any adverse regulatory changes or outright bans on PFOF could materially impact Robinhood's transaction-based revenue and overall profitability.
- Market Volatility and Cyclicality: Robinhood's revenue is heavily dependent on transaction-based activities, particularly in options and cryptocurrency trading. While periods of high market activity and investor interest, such as bull markets or cryptocurrency surges, can lead to substantial revenue growth, market downturns or periods of reduced trading volumes can significantly contract its earnings. The company's financial performance is thus sensitive to broader market cycles and investor sentiment.
- Intense Competition: Robinhood faces fierce competition from both established financial institutions and a growing number of fintech startups. Traditional brokerages like Charles Schwab and Fidelity have modernized their platforms and adopted commission-free trading, while specialized cryptocurrency exchanges and other digital challengers are also vying for market share. This competitive landscape necessitates continuous innovation and product differentiation for Robinhood to retain and expand its user base.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The rise of integrated financial platforms (often termed "fintech super-apps") that offer a comprehensive suite of services, including banking, lending, budgeting, and investing, within a single user experience. This threatens Robinhood's position as a primary financial touchpoint by potentially drawing users to platforms that provide a more holistic and convenient one-stop solution for all their financial needs, thereby diminishing the appeal of a dedicated investment-focused application.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Robinhood Markets operates within several significant addressable markets in the United States for its core financial products and services.
Online Brokerage and Investment Platforms (Stocks, ETFs, Options)
The U.S. online investment platform market generated revenue of approximately USD 547.0 million in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 1,573.6 million by 2030. Additionally, the United States Securities Brokerage Market, which includes online trading platforms, was valued at USD 188.9 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to exceed USD 280.5 billion by 2033. Approximately 165 million Americans were participating in online trading activities in 2025, representing 62% of the U.S. adult population.
Cryptocurrencies
The U.S. cryptocurrency market size was valued at approximately USD 1.19 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow to USD 2.90 billion by 2030. Another estimate places the United States cryptocurrency market size at USD 10.9 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 30.2 billion by 2034. The global Digital Asset Trading Platform Market is expected to grow from USD 2.49 billion in 2023 to USD 10.99 billion by 2033, with North America (including the U.S.) holding a significant share.
Gold Investing
In 2025, U.S. gold demand, driven primarily by ETF investment, rose to 679 tonnes. The global gold bullion market was valued at approximately USD 65.94 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 171.43 billion by 2033. The U.S. market is expected to reach 343.7 tons in 2026 for gold.
Cash Management Services
The demand for cash management services in the USA is projected to grow from USD 1.6 billion in 2025 to USD 3.7 billion by 2035. The global cash management system market size was estimated at USD 17.6 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 36.92 billion by 2030, with the U.S. market dominating the regional market in 2024.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Robinhood Markets (HOOD)
Over the next 2-3 years, Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives, focusing on expanding its product offerings, increasing customer engagement, and venturing into new markets.
- Expansion of Gold Membership and Services: Robinhood is focused on increasing the adoption and value of its premium Gold membership. The company has seen significant growth in Gold subscribers, with Gold members, on average, having seven times larger assets and generating over seven times the average revenue per user (ARPU) compared to other customers. New offerings for Gold members, such as a credit card with industry-leading benefits and a 1% unlimited deposit boost, are designed to deepen engagement and wallet share among its most valuable users. This strategy aims to drive recurring revenue and enhance the overall profitability of its customer base.
- International Expansion: Robinhood views international expansion as a significant long-term growth opportunity. Following its entry into the European Union with cryptocurrency offerings and the United Kingdom with brokerage services in 2024, the company plans to expand into Asia starting in 2025, with Singapore as its regional headquarters. Robinhood is also working to acquire necessary brokerage licenses in the Asia-Pacific region and is exploring potential entry into the Canadian market. This geographic diversification seeks to tap into new customer bases and market opportunities beyond its established U.S. presence.
- Introduction of New Products and Services for Active Traders and Diversification: Robinhood is committed to "winning the active trader market" by continuously launching new and advanced trading tools. Recent and upcoming introductions include Robinhood Social, a new trading community; AI-powered custom indicators and scans (Robinhood Cortex); futures trading on Robinhood Legend; short selling capabilities; and expanded options trading features. Furthermore, the company is diversifying its revenue streams beyond traditional transaction-based activities by expanding into banking and lending services, such as the Robinhood Gold credit card and a partnership for home loans, as well as broadening its offerings with prediction markets.
- Growth in Customer Engagement, Net Deposits, and Assets Under Custody (AUC): A fundamental driver of revenue growth for Robinhood is the consistent increase in customer engagement, net deposits, and Assets Under Custody (AUC). The company has demonstrated a multi-year track record of achieving over 20% net deposit growth, with recent quarters showing even higher annualized rates. This growth in assets and customer activity directly contributes to higher net interest revenues and transaction-based revenues across equities, options, and cryptocurrencies. Robinhood aims for double-digit gains in trading market share, bolstered by its product innovation, to further fuel this expansion.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In May 2024, Robinhood's board of directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion of its outstanding common stock, expected to be executed over two to three years starting in the third quarter of 2024.
- This program was expanded in April 2025 with an additional $500 million authorization, bringing the total to $1.5 billion.
- As of April 25, 2025, the company had repurchased $667 million of Class A common stock at an average price of $33.40 per share.
Share Issuance
- Robinhood Markets went public in July 2021 through an initial public offering (IPO), raising approximately $2.1 billion.
- The number of shares outstanding increased from 872 million in December 2023 to 884 million in December 2024.
- Quarterly shares outstanding also increased from 888 million in June 2025 to 899 million in September 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In June 2023, Robinhood acquired X1, a credit card issuance startup, for $95 million.
- The company completed the acquisition of TradePMR, a wealth management platform for Registered Investment Advisors, for approximately $300 million in November 2024.
- Robinhood launched Robinhood Ventures Fund I (RVI) in March 2026, a $658.4 million venture fund aimed at providing retail investors access to private companies.
Capital Expenditures
- Robinhood Markets reported capital expenditures of $21 million in 2023.
- Capital expenditures increased to $50 million in 2024 and further to $54 million in 2025.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 77.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 43.5 |
| Rev LTM | 5,897 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,796 |
| FCF LTM | 2,973 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,047 |
| CFO LTM | 3,034 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,068 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 30.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 38.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 40.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 344.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 33.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 38.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 36.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 43.5 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 33.1 |
| P/EBIT | 31.5 |
| P/E | 38.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -39.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 266.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -45.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 144.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $73.66 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 66.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/29/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -51.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $76.32 | $106.58 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -3.5% | -30.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 79.7% | 67.5% |
| Downside Capture | 3.54 | 1.94 |
| Upside Capture | 357.79 | 312.08 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 66.5% | 58.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.59 | 3.03 | 3.62 | 3.59 | 3.11 | 2.57 |
| Up Beta | 2.46 | 1.95 | 2.82 | 3.11 | 2.43 | 2.36 |
| Down Beta | 9.23 | 1.86 | 2.27 | 3.13 | 3.50 | 2.78 |
| Up Capture | 308% | 450% | 495% | 476% | 931% | 12651% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 20 | 28 | 58 | 132 | 409 |
| Down Capture | 861% | 324% | 345% | 268% | 194% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 23 | 36 | 67 | 119 | 339 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HOOD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | 57.5% | 67.5% | 0.95 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 8.2% | 14.7% | 0.32 | 40.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.6% | 12.5% | 1.88 | 58.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.5% | 27.2% | 1.20 | 17.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 51.5% | 17.9% | 2.20 | 5.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.67 | 17.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.1% | 42.2% | -0.33 | 55.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HOOD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | 17.3% | 74.1% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.8% | 18.7% | 0.40 | 40.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 50.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 17.9% | 0.94 | 9.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.3% | 19.1% | 0.61 | 8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 32.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.7% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 40.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HOOD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | 8.3% | 74.1% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.6% | 22.2% | 0.52 | 40.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 50.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.6% | 15.9% | 0.71 | 9.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 32.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 40.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | -13.2% | ||
| 1/30/2026 | -9.6% | -16.7% | -23.5% |
| 10/31/2025 | 0.2% | -11.2% | -9.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | -2.9% | -0.4% | -2.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | -5.1% | 1.8% | 34.7% |
| 1/31/2025 | -0.1% | 7.5% | -11.0% |
| 10/30/2024 | -16.7% | 5.8% | 33.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | -1.6% | -16.8% | -1.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 12 | 8 |
| # Negative | 11 | 6 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 5.5% | 18.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -11.5% | -10.0% |
| Max Positive | 11.7% | 21.9% | 54.4% |
| Max Negative | -16.7% | -16.8% | -23.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Expenses and SBC | 2.70 Bil | 2.76 Bil | 2.83 Bil | 3.8% | Raised | Guidance: 2.66 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Expenses and SBC | 2.60 Bil | 2.66 Bil | 2.73 Bil | 16.8% | Higher New | Actual: 2.28 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bhatt, Baiju | Living Trust | Sell | 4202026 | 86.38 | 57,261 | Form | |||
| 2 | Verma, Shiv | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 85.86 | 5,436 | 466,717 | 4,528,679 | Form |
| 3 | Quirk, Steven M | Chief Brokerage Officer | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 84.93 | 8,540 | 725,302 | 4,516,832 | Form |
| 4 | Pinner, Jeffrey Tsvi | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 4082026 | 69.85 | 5,835 | 407,575 | 1,257,719 | Form |
| 5 | Tenev, Vladimir | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4082026 | 69.83 | 375,000 | Form |
HOOD Trade Sentinel
UNDERWEIGHT (Score 3-4)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The stock receives a low score due to a combination of negative risk/reward asymmetry and a speculative valuation. The core investment thesis is challenged by a sharp deceleration in its primary monetization engine (ARPU) and a collapse in a key high-margin segment (crypto). While the pivot to recurring revenues is promising, the stock's high P/E multiple is not justified given the 'Contested' competitive moat and weakening operational health. The downside risk of a multiple de-rating significantly outweighs the upside potential from an earnings beat.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type F: 'Transition / Profit Pivot'Robinhood is in a clear 'Diversification Pivot' era, moving from a transaction-heavy, hyper-growth model to a more balanced one focused on growing predictable, recurring revenue streams like Net Interest and Subscriptions. This aligns perfectly with the 'Transition / Profit Pivot' archetype, where the key debate is the market re-rating the company from a 'failed growth story' to a 'new cash machine'.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for the stock is the successful transition away from volatile, low-quality transaction revenues towards more predictable, higher-margin Net Interest and Subscription revenues. This mix shift improves earnings quality and visibility, justifying a structural re-rating of the valuation multiple as the business model matures.
- Net Interest Revenue grew 24% YoY in Q1 2026, driven by a 93% YoY growth in the margin book to a record $17.0 billion.
- Robinhood Gold Subscribers grew 36% YoY to a record 4.3 million in Q1 2026, boosting 'Other Revenues' by 57% YoY.
- Net Deposits remain strong, with a 22% annualized growth rate in Q1 2026, providing a growing base of interest-earning assets.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant friction is the sharp deceleration and weakening monetization in the core transaction business, which still accounts for 58% of revenue. A collapse in high-margin crypto trading and slowing user activity is leading to revenue misses and downward earnings revisions, suggesting the pivot to recurring revenue may not be fast enough to offset the core decay.
- Transaction-based revenue from cryptocurrencies collapsed, falling 47% year-over-year in Q1 2026.
- Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) growth decelerated sharply to 8% YoY in Q1 2026, down from 82% YoY growth in Q3 2025, and fell 18% sequentially.
- The company missed Q1 2026 consensus estimates for both revenue ($1.07B vs $1.17B est.) and EPS ($0.38 vs $0.41 est.), triggering a negative stock reaction.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) | Sequential Stability or Growth | The 18% sequential drop was the primary cause of the Q1 miss. The stock cannot recover until this core monetization metric stabilizes, proving the decline was temporary. |
| Crypto Notional Volume | >$50 billion/quarter | This segment's -47% YoY collapse is the biggest drag on the high-margin transaction business. A recovery here is critical to stop the negative revisions to earnings. |
| Robinhood Gold Subscribers Growth (YoY) | >25% YoY | This is a key indicator of the 'Alpha Driver'. Continued high growth in this recurring revenue stream is necessary to prove the diversification story is working and can offset weakness elsewhere. |
The Revenue Mix Shift vs. Core Decay
BULL VIEW
The pivot is working. Strong Net Deposit growth (22% annualized) and record Gold Subscribers (4.3M, +36% YoY) are building a durable, high-margin foundation for future earnings.
CORE TENSION
Can growth in high-quality recurring revenue (Net Interest, Subscriptions) outpace the sharp collapse and monetization decay in the core, volatile transaction business (Crypto, Options)?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The Q1 2026 earnings miss, driven by a sequential ARPU decline to $157 from $191 and a 47% YoY drop in crypto revenue, shows bears are currently winning.
BEAR VIEW
The core is breaking. A 47% YoY collapse in crypto revenue and an 18% sequential drop in ARPU prove the pivot is too slow to offset decay.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late July 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Sequential change in ARPU. Needs to stabilize above the $157 baseline from Q1. Also, watch for Crypto Notional Volume vs the $66B reported in Q1. |
Late October 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Call Watch: YoY growth rate of Robinhood Gold subscribers. Must remain above the 25-30% range to validate the recurring revenue thesis, compared to 36% in Q1. |
Next 3-6 Months | Regulatory Scrutiny of Event Contracts Watch: Headline of a large state AG (e.g., NY, CA) launching an investigation into event contracts/prediction markets as 'unlicensed gambling', a key growth area. |
Ongoing | FedNow Impact on Net Interest Income Watch: Any company announcement or guidance change related to settlement times or Net Interest Margin (NIM) compression, as FedNow adoption shrinks float income. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Nov 20, 2025 | Launch of 24/5 Trading Details: Announced the rollout of 24-hour, 5-day-a-week trading for select securities. Despite the strategic initiative, the stock sold off sharply amid broader market weakness. | Plummeted -10.1% $118.16 -> $106.21 |
Jan 13, 2025 | SEC Fine for Compliance Failures Details: Agreed to pay a $45 million fine to the SEC to settle charges for widespread failures in anti-money laundering, recordkeeping, and cybersecurity. The market reaction was minimal. | Muted (-0.5%) $120.24 -> $119.67 |
Feb 10, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported record Q4 revenue of $1.28B (+27% YoY) and EPS of $0.66. Despite the beat, stock fell on decelerating metrics like a 57% YoY drop in App crypto volume. | Plummeted -8.9% $85.60 -> $77.97 |
Mar 12, 2026 | February 2026 Operating Data Details: Announced monthly operating metrics, showing funded customers grew to 27.4 million, an increase of 140,000 from January 2026. Details likely disappointed investors. | Fell notably by -3.3% $78.69 -> $76.12 |
Apr 15, 2026 | Insider Selling Disclosures Details: Form 4 filings showed multiple C-suite executives, including the CFO and CLO, sold shares. The market reaction was positive, likely driven by broader market factors. | Surged +10.4% $79.09 -> $87.32 |
Apr 28, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Details: Company missed revenue ($1.07B vs $1.17B est) and EPS ($0.38 vs $0.41 est). Crypto revenue collapsed 47% YoY. ARPU fell 18% sequentially to $157. | Fell notably by -6.9% in after-hours trading. $82.07 -> $76.44 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (5.1x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, Contested moat, and Low visibility force a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk, despite any perceived long-term potential.
Diversification Alternatives
IBKR
INDUSTRYUnlike HOOD, IBKR has a more stable, higher-net-worth client base, global diversification, robust profitability, and is not overly reliant on speculative retail trends.
SEIC
SECTOROffers a more durable, diversified business model focused on institutional and wealth management technology, with strong recurring revenue and less exposure to volatile retail trading.
Robinhood is evolving from a transaction-focused 'meme stock' broker into a diversified financial services platform, driven by growth in subscription (Gold), retirement, and net interest revenues.
Filter all news through the lens of Robinhood's transformation into a primary, multi-product financial relationship for its user base, moving beyond volatile trading revenue.
Robinhood Gold subscriber growth >15% YoY; Net Deposit growth >20% annualized; strong uptake of new products like the Platinum Card, Retirement AUC growth >50% YoY; successful international expansion (e.g., Canada crypto launch).
Sustained decline in Monthly Active Users or ARPU; significant regulatory action against Payment for Order Flow (PFOF); major security breach eroding brand trust; failure of new products (e.g., credit card) to gain traction.
Short-term fluctuations in crypto trading volumes (highly volatile and expected); minor sequential changes in options/equity trading volume (already priced in); competitor app UI updates (brand loyalty provides a buffer).
Repricing Catalyst
The primary re-rating catalyst is the successful bundling of services around the Robinhood Gold subscription, turning a volatile, transaction-based user into a sticky, multi-product customer. Growth in Gold subscribers to a record 4.3 million (+36% YoY) and Net Deposits of $17.7B in Q1 2026 are early indicators of this shift.
Transaction-Based Revenues
$2.5B TTM (58% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Revenue from customer trades in Options, Cryptocurrencies, and Equities. This is largely generated via Payment for Order Flow (PFOF).
Who Pays & How
Market makers pay Robinhood for routing retail order flow to them. This allows market makers to capture the bid-ask spread, and in exchange, Robinhood can offer commission-free trades to its users. The lock-in is the user-friendly interface and the inertia of moving a brokerage account.
Competition
Net Interest Revenues
$1.4B TTM (33% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Interest earned on customer margin balances, securities lending, and uninvested cash balances swept to partner banks.
Who Pays & How
Users pay interest on margin loans to leverage their investments. Counterparties pay fees to borrow securities for short selling. Robinhood earns a spread on customer cash balances.
Competition
Other Revenues (Subscriptions & Fees)
$0.3B TTM (9% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Primarily subscription fees from the Robinhood Gold premium service, which offers benefits like higher interest on cash, larger instant deposits, and margin access.
Who Pays & How
4.3 million users pay a monthly fee for Robinhood Gold to access premium features. This provides a stable, recurring revenue stream.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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