Garmin (GRMN)
Market Price (4/13/2026): $256.9 | Market Cap: $49.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Consumer Electronics
Garmin (GRMN)
Market Price (4/13/2026): $256.9Market Cap: $49.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Consumer Electronics
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Precision Positioning & Navigation. Themes include Wearable Health Devices, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.8x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x Key risksGRMN key risks include [1] persistent operating losses in its Auto OEM segment, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Precision Positioning & Navigation. Themes include Wearable Health Devices, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.8x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x |
| Key risksGRMN key risks include [1] persistent operating losses in its Auto OEM segment, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Garmin's robust fourth-quarter 2025 financial performance significantly exceeded analyst expectations and was coupled with optimistic full-year 2026 guidance. The company reported Q4 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $2.79, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.39 by 16.74%. Additionally, quarterly revenue increased by 16.6% year-over-year to $2.12 billion, outperforming the consensus estimate of $2.01 billion. This strong finish to 2025, which also saw record full-year revenue of $7.25 billion (up 15%) and record EPS of $8.56, provided a significant boost to investor confidence, further supported by upbeat 2026 growth projections, including an expected EPS of $9.40, a 9.8% increase from fiscal 2025.
2. Multiple positive analyst rating upgrades and increased price targets reflected growing market confidence in Garmin's future prospects. For example, Tigress Financial maintained a "Strong Buy" rating and raised its price target to $320.00 on February 20, 2026, citing growth drivers such as AI-enabled services. Morgan Stanley upgraded Garmin to an "Equal-Weight" rating with a $252.00 price target on February 19, 2026, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. also raised its price target to $265.00. Overall, analysts provided a consensus "Moderate Buy" recommendation with an average 1-year price target of $254.00 as of April 7, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 27.1% change in GRMN stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 202.08 | 256.89 | 27.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,943 | 7,246 | 4.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.6% | 23.0% | 1.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.8 | 29.7 | 19.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 192 | 192 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 27.1% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GRMN | 27.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 54.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -5.5% | 55.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.2% change in GRMN stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 244.23 | 256.89 | 5.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,758 | 7,246 | 7.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 23.2% | 23.0% | -1.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.0 | 29.7 | -0.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 193 | 192 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GRMN | 5.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 47.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -5.6% | 51.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.3% change in GRMN stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 213.61 | 256.89 | 20.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,297 | 7,246 | 15.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.4% | 23.0% | 2.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.1 | 29.7 | 2.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 192 | 192 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GRMN | 20.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 64.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 15.0% | 64.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 169.4% change in GRMN stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 58.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 95.36 | 256.89 | 169.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,860 | 7,246 | 49.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.0% | 23.0% | 14.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.8 | 29.7 | 58.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 192 | 192 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 169.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GRMN | 169.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 48.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 54.4% | 46.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GRMN Return | 15% | -30% | 43% | 63% | -0% | 27% | 139% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -8% | 19% | 24% | 34% | 11% | 158% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GRMN Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 37% | 52% | 60% | 63% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GRMN Max Drawdown | -4% | -41% | 0% | -7% | -16% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -19% | -15% | -7% | -16% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AAPL, GOOGL, RTX, HON, LHX. See GRMN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GRMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 657 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 143 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 713.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,444 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AAPL, GOOGL, RTX, HON, LHX
In The Past
Garmin's stock fell -56.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/30/2021. A -56.0% loss requires a 127.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Garmin (GRMN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Garmin (GRMN):
- Garmin is like a blend of Fitbit for advanced wearables and a specialized aerospace and marine electronics supplier.
- Garmin is like Apple, but laser-focused on mastering advanced GPS and navigation technology for a vast range of uses, from smartwatches to aircraft.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Fitness Watches & Activity Trackers: Wearable devices including running, multi-sport, and smartwatch devices for tracking fitness and daily activity.
- Outdoor Handhelds & Adventure Watches: GPS devices and rugged watches designed for outdoor navigation, hiking, and other adventures.
- Golf Devices: Products such as rangefinders and GPS-enabled devices for tracking and improving golf performance.
- Dog Tracking & Training Devices: GPS-enabled collars and handheld units for tracking and training dogs.
- Aviation Avionics Solutions: Integrated flight decks, electronic displays, navigation, communication, and automatic flight control systems for aircraft.
- Marine Chartplotters & Sonar: Multi-function displays, fish finders, sonar products, and navigation systems for marine vessels.
- Marine Autopilot Systems: Systems designed for automatically steering boats and other marine craft.
- Automotive Infotainment Systems: Embedded computing models and entertainment systems for vehicles.
- Personal Navigation Devices: Standalone GPS devices for in-car navigation.
- Garmin Connect & Connect IQ: Web and mobile platforms for fitness data analysis and an application development platform for Garmin devices.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Garmin (GRMN) primarily sells its products to individuals, who are the ultimate end-users across most of its diverse product segments. While Garmin distributes its products through a network of independent retailers, online retailers, dealers, distributors, and installation/repair shops (which are B2B customers), the demand for the majority of its offerings is driven by individual consumers. Garmin also sells directly to individuals through its online webshop, garmin.com. Additionally, its Aviation, Marine, and parts of its Auto segment involve sales to Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and professional installers.
The three main categories of individual customers that Garmin serves are:
- Athletes and Fitness Enthusiasts: This category includes individuals who use Garmin's running, cycling, multi-sport, and activity tracking watches, as well as smartwatches and fitness accessories, to monitor their health, performance, and daily activities.
- Outdoor Adventurers and Recreationists: This group comprises individuals who engage in outdoor activities such as hiking, camping, golfing, and hunting, utilizing Garmin's adventure watches, outdoor handheld GPS devices, golf devices, and dog tracking and training equipment.
- Vehicle Operators (Aviation, Marine, and Auto): This category includes pilots, boaters, and drivers who use Garmin's navigation, communication, safety, and infotainment solutions for personal and recreational use in their aircraft, marine vessels, and automobiles.
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```htmlClifton Pemble, President and Chief Executive Officer
Clifton Pemble joined Garmin in 1989 as a software engineer and was among the company's first associates. He has held various leadership roles, including systems engineering and software engineering management, Vice President of Engineering, and Chief Operating Officer. Pemble became CEO in January 2013, succeeding co-founder Dr. Min Kao. Before joining Garmin, he was a software engineer for AlliedSignal, involved in the development of earth-based and satellite-based navigation systems for general aviation. He also worked at King Radio, where he met Garmin's founders. He holds bachelor's degrees in Mathematics and Computer Science from MidAmerica Nazarene University.
Doug Boessen, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Doug Boessen joined Garmin in 2014 as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. He oversees financial planning, accounting, investor relations, treasury, and internal audit functions. Prior to Garmin, he served as CFO at Collective Brands. His career also includes 13 years of experience as an independent auditor for Arthur Andersen. Boessen is a certified public accountant and earned a bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Accounting from the University of Central Missouri. He also completed an executive development program at Northwestern University's Kellogg Graduate School of Management.
Patrick Desbois, Co-Chief Operating Officer
Patrick Desbois was appointed co-Chief Operating Officer, effective July 1, 2024. In this role, he provides executive oversight for Garmin's aviation and auto OEM segments, global supply chain and operations, information technology, and human resources. Desbois joined Garmin in 2011 as Vice President, Executive Office, and was promoted to Executive Vice President of Operations in 2017. Before his tenure at Garmin, he was a senior director of engineering at Dell Computers for 10 years. He holds a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering from George Mason University.
Brad Trenkle, Co-Chief Operating Officer
Brad Trenkle was appointed co-Chief Operating Officer, effective July 1, 2024. He provides executive oversight for Garmin's consumer business segments, engineering innovation and support, as well as global consumer sales, marketing, and creative. Trenkle joined Garmin in 2002 as a software engineer and contributed to the development of many product lines, particularly in the outdoor segment. He has served in various leadership roles, including engineering management and providing leadership for some of Garmin's significant acquisitions. In 2017, he was promoted to Vice President of Garmin's Outdoor Segment. Trenkle earned a bachelor's degree in computer engineering from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln.
Philip Straub, Executive Vice President and Managing Director, Aviation
Philip Straub leads all facets of Garmin's aviation business, including product development, flight operations, certification, sales, marketing, and support. He joined Garmin in 1993 after earning a Bachelor of Science degree in electrical engineering. Straub was a key contributor and leader in the creation of game-changing products such as the GNS 430/530 and G1000 integrated cockpit systems.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Garmin faces two key risks to its business:
-
Market Disruption by General-Purpose Smart Devices and Intense Competition in Consumer Electronics: Garmin's Auto segment, particularly its personal navigation devices, has been significantly impacted by the widespread adoption of smartphones with free navigation apps. Similarly, in the Fitness segment, Garmin competes with major technology companies offering general-purpose smartwatches that integrate fitness tracking with broader smartphone functionalities and app ecosystems. This creates pressure on Garmin to differentiate its specialized devices and could lead to market share erosion in segments where consumers opt for multi-functional alternatives.
-
Rapid Technological Change and the Imperative for Continuous Innovation: Across its consumer-facing segments (Fitness, Outdoor, and to some extent Marine and Aviation), Garmin operates in environments characterized by rapid technological advancements. The company must continuously invest in research and development to introduce new features, improve sensor accuracy, enhance battery life, and maintain connectivity options to keep its products competitive and prevent obsolescence. Failure to keep pace with technological trends and competitor innovations could diminish the appeal of its specialized devices and impact sales.
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- The increasing integration and dominance of major tech ecosystems (e.g., Apple, Google, Samsung) in the smartwatch and wearable market pose an emerging threat to Garmin's Fitness and Outdoor segments. These tech giants are continuously enhancing the health tracking, outdoor navigation, and overall feature sets of their general-purpose smartwatches, often deeply integrated into their vast consumer tech ecosystems. This trend could erode demand for Garmin's specialized fitness and adventure watches, as increasingly capable general-purpose devices might satisfy the needs of a growing segment of consumers, similar to how smartphones impacted dedicated GPS devices.
- In the Auto segment, an emerging threat comes from automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and major tech companies (e.g., Google with Google Automotive Services) taking increasing control over the in-car infotainment experience. As the automotive industry shifts towards software-defined vehicles, OEMs are either developing their own proprietary infotainment systems or forming direct partnerships with large tech platforms, reducing their reliance on traditional third-party suppliers like Garmin for embedded computing models and infotainment systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) operates in diverse markets, and the addressable market sizes for its main products and services vary across regions and product categories. Here's an overview of the market sizes for Garmin's key segments, primarily based on 2024 figures or recent projections:
Fitness Segment (Smartwatches, Fitness Trackers, Cycling Products, and Sports Watches)
- Smartwatches: The global smartwatch market was estimated to be between USD 39.1 billion and USD 52.2 billion in 2024. It is projected to grow to approximately USD 76.19 billion by 2032 with an 8.7% CAGR, or to USD 92 billion by 2034 with a 9% CAGR, or potentially to USD 293.89 billion by 2035 with a 17.01% CAGR. Smartwatches represented a significant portion of the broader fitness tracker market in 2024, accounting for between 48.5% and 56.3% of the revenue share.
- Fitness Trackers (including smartwatches and smart bands): The global fitness tracker market was valued at approximately USD 60.9 billion to USD 70.05 billion in 2024. It is forecast to reach between USD 162.8 billion by 2030 and USD 364.16 billion by 2033, exhibiting CAGRs ranging from 16% to 20.10% from 2025 onwards. North America was the largest market for fitness trackers, holding a revenue share of 32.4% to 41.7% in 2024. The U.S. fitness tracker market alone was valued at USD 19.39 billion in 2024.
- Sports Watches: The global sports watches market size was approximately USD 15.36 billion in 2024. It is anticipated to reach USD 28.48 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 7.1% from 2025. Another estimate placed the global sport watches market at USD 25 billion in 2023, projected to reach USD 45 billion by 2032 with a 6.5% CAGR.
- GPS Bike Computers: The global GPS bike computer market size was valued at around USD 495.04 million to USD 637.93 million in 2024. It is expected to grow to approximately USD 804.4 million by 2033 with a 5.2% CAGR or USD 982.74 million by 2032 with a 5.55% CAGR. Asia-Pacific held the largest revenue share in the GPS bike computer market in 2024.
Outdoor Segment (Adventure Watches, Outdoor Handhelds, Golf Devices, and Dog Tracking Devices)
- Outdoor Handhelds (part of Portable Navigation Devices): The global Portable Navigation Devices (PND) market, which includes handheld outdoor devices, was valued between USD 3.15 billion and USD 13.8 billion in 2024. It is expected to reach between USD 5.62 billion by 2032 and USD 19.7 billion by 2030, with CAGRs of 6.1% to 7.50% from 2025. North America dominated the PND market in 2024.
- Golf GPS Devices: The global Golf GPS market size showed varied estimates, ranging from USD 336 million to USD 4,215.2 million in 2024. Projections indicate growth to between USD 403 million by 2032 and USD 5,484.8 million by 2032, with CAGRs between 2.7% and 5.44%. North America held the largest market share in 2024, accounting for approximately 38.6% to over 40% of the global revenue.
- Dog Tracking and Training Devices (Pet GPS Trackers): The global dog GPS tracker market size was approximately USD 132.5 million to USD 315.8 million in 2024. It is projected to reach between USD 352.45 million by 2031 and USD 1165 million by 2034, growing at CAGRs of 12.60% to 15.00%. North America held a significant market share of over 40% in 2024, while Europe contributed about three-fourths of the global market revenue in the same year.
Aviation Segment (Aircraft Avionics Solutions)
- Aviation Avionics: The global aerospace avionics market size was estimated between USD 47.5 billion and USD 108.2 billion in 2024. It is projected to grow to between USD 116.9 billion by 2034 and USD 200.9 billion by 2034, with CAGRs ranging from 7% to 9.6% from 2025. North America was the largest revenue-generating market in 2023, and is estimated to contribute 36% to 37.2% of the market growth.
Marine Segment (Chartplotters, Fish Finders, Sonar Products, Autopilot Systems, Radars, etc.)
- Marine Electronics: The global marine electronics market size was valued between USD 6.064 billion and USD 7.9 billion in 2024. It is predicted to reach between USD 9.73 billion by 2030 and USD 13.10 billion by 2034, with CAGRs ranging from 5.0% to 6.82% from 2025. North America dominated the global marine electronics market, holding a revenue share of 36.48% to 41% in 2024.
Auto Segment (Embedded Computing Models, Infotainment Systems, Personal Navigation Devices, and Cameras)
- Automotive Infotainment Systems: The global automotive infotainment market size was estimated between USD 28.3 billion and USD 37.35 billion in 2024. It is expected to grow to between USD 28,933.3 million (approximately USD 28.9 billion) by 2030 and USD 79.79 billion by 2033, with CAGRs ranging from 5.7% to 11.6% from 2024. Asia Pacific was the largest revenue-generating market in 2023 and is projected to be the fastest-growing region.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Garmin (GRMN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Strong Performance and New Product Launches in Fitness and Outdoor Segments: Garmin anticipates continued strong growth in its Fitness and Outdoor segments, largely propelled by a robust product roadmap and numerous new product introductions, particularly in wearables and adventure watches. The Fitness segment experienced significant revenue increases in late 2024, driven by strong demand for wearables. Similarly, the Outdoor segment has shown growth, led by adventure watches. Garmin's CEO has highlighted a "robust product lineup and many product launches planned during the year," signifying ongoing innovation in these areas.
- Growth in the Auto OEM Segment: The Auto OEM segment is expected to continue its upward trajectory, fueled by increased shipments of domain controllers and new business awards for digital instrument clusters and infotainment systems. While historically operating at a loss, this segment is a consistent area of growth mentioned in company outlooks, indicating its role in future revenue.
- Innovation and Expansion in Aviation and Marine Segments: Both the Aviation and Marine segments are poised for sustained growth. The Aviation segment has seen revenue increases and is expanding its footprint for enhanced aircraft certification and flight-test capabilities. The Marine segment has also demonstrated strong performance, with new product launches like the GPSMAP® 9000xsv series of chartplotters and the introduction of advanced sonar technology, such as the 360-degree sonar system with its new Spy Pole. Garmin's consistent recognition as a leading manufacturer in the marine industry further underscores its growth potential.
- Integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Wearables and Health Platforms: Garmin is strategically integrating AI into its wearables and health platforms. This includes features like AI-powered health analytics in smartwatches, such as the new Venu 4, and enhanced nutrition tracking and insights via AI-based Garmin Active Intelligence™ within Garmin Connect+. This focus on AI is expected to generate excitement and contribute to medium-term growth.
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Share Repurchases
- Garmin purchased $181 million of company shares in 2025.
- In February 2026, Garmin's Board of Directors approved a new $500 million share repurchase program through December 2028, replacing a previous $300 million authorization under which $244 million of shares were repurchased through December 2025.
- The company repurchased $32.95 million in Q4 2024, $20.14 million in Q3 2024, and $9.45 million in Q2 2024.
Share Issuance
- Garmin's shares outstanding were approximately 0.194 billion at the end of 2025, a slight increase of 0.17% from 2024.
- Shares outstanding were approximately 0.193 billion in 2024, a 0.64% increase from 2023.
- Individual equity awards, such as restricted stock units granted to employees, contribute to share issuances, with one award in February 2025 set to vest in installments beginning February 2026.
Outbound Investments
- Garmin acquired MYLAPS, a sports timing systems, devices, and services company, in July 2025.
- The company acquired Lumishore, a provider of marine underwater lighting systems, in October 2024.
- In August 2023, Garmin completed the purchase of JL Audio, expanding its presence in marine, car, and home audio markets.
- Garmin also acquired Vesper Marine in January 2022 and AeroData in May 2021.
- In February 2026, Garmin expanded its aviation operations by acquiring a hangar and office complex at Mesa Gateway Airport in Arizona to enhance aircraft certification and flight testing capacity.
Capital Expenditures
- Garmin's capital expenditures were $270 million in 2025.
- Capital expenditures were $194 million in both 2024 and 2023.
- For 2026, Garmin expects capital expenditures of approximately $400 million, primarily due to a new manufacturing facility in Thailand expected to be operational in early 2027.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 258.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 210.2 |
| Rev LTM | 63,022 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,934 |
| FCF LTM | 6,435 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,222 |
| CFO LTM | 8,488 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,242 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 210.2 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| P/EBIT | 25.9 |
| P/E | 32.1 |
| P/CFO | 24.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 48.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 99.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 17.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 24.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 37.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outdoor | 1,962 | 1,697 | 1,770 | 1,282 | 1,128 |
| Fitness | 1,774 | 1,345 | 1,109 | 1,534 | 1,317 |
| Marine | 1,073 | 917 | 904 | 875 | 658 |
| Aviation | 877 | 846 | 793 | 712 | 623 |
| Auto Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) | 611 | 423 | 284 | 255 | 185 |
| Consumer Auto | 325 | 275 | |||
| Total | 6,297 | 5,228 | 4,860 | 4,983 | 4,187 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outdoor | 703 | 515 | 573 | 476 | 441 |
| Fitness | 483 | 232 | 105 | 359 | 319 |
| Marine | 236 | 179 | 215 | 250 | 176 |
| Aviation | 211 | 226 | 213 | 193 | 137 |
| Auto Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) | -39 | -61 | -79 | -108 | -60 |
| Consumer Auto | 48 | 41 | |||
| Total | 1,594 | 1,092 | 1,028 | 1,219 | 1,054 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $256.89 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 49.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/08/2000 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -0.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $232.21 | $222.90 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 10.6% | 15.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 37.0% | 30.6% |
| Downside Capture | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| Upside Capture | 263.64 | 124.07 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 50.0% | 51.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.95 | 1.48 | 1.51 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.02 |
| Up Beta | 0.60 | -0.86 | 0.27 | 1.13 | 1.09 | 0.97 |
| Down Beta | 0.57 | 1.07 | 1.58 | 1.42 | 1.35 | 1.18 |
| Up Capture | 126% | 358% | 274% | 124% | 137% | 120% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 23 | 34 | 68 | 146 | 413 |
| Down Capture | 113% | 104% | 107% | 115% | 118% | 96% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 19 | 29 | 58 | 106 | 333 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GRMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRMN | 50.6% | 32.4% | 1.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 28.9% | 22.5% | 1.05 | 61.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.2% | 17.3% | 1.47 | 60.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 60.1% | 27.8% | 1.69 | 7.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.8% | 16.6% | 1.58 | 11.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 21.3% | 15.2% | 1.07 | 50.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -4.3% | 43.7% | 0.02 | 33.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GRMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRMN | 15.9% | 30.1% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.3% | 23.7% | 0.23 | 52.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 56.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.8% | 1.02 | 9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.8% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 11.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 48.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.3% | 56.5% | 0.30 | 23.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GRMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRMN | 23.8% | 28.2% | 0.80 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.2% | 22.0% | 0.51 | 56.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 60.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 19.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 49.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.6% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 15.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/18/2026 | 9.4% | 15.9% | 7.1% |
| 10/29/2025 | -11.5% | -17.2% | -21.5% |
| 7/30/2025 | -7.4% | -4.6% | -1.6% |
| 2/19/2025 | 12.6% | 5.2% | -2.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | 23.2% | 22.8% | 27.6% |
| 7/31/2024 | -4.5% | -8.2% | 0.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | 13.1% | 17.6% | 12.7% |
| 2/21/2024 | 8.8% | 9.7% | 20.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -5.4% | -4.1% |
| Max Positive | 23.2% | 22.8% | 27.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.5% | -17.2% | -21.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 7.90 Bil | 11.3% | Higher New | Actual: 7.10 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Operating Margin | 25.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | Higher New | Actual: 25.2% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Pro forma EPS | 9.35 | 14.7% | Higher New | Actual: 8.15 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Gross Margin | 58.5% | 0 | 0 | Same New | Actual: 58.5% for 2025 | ||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/29/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 7.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.10 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Pro forma EPS | 8.15 | 1.9% | Raised | Guidance: 8 for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Gross Margin | 58.5% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 58.5% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Operating Margin | 25.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 24.8% for 2025 | ||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pemble, Clifton A | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 206.23 | 10,431 | 2,151,162 | 27,877,873 | Form |
| 2 | Boessen, Douglas G | CFO and Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 206.26 | 2,485 | 512,562 | 5,964,280 | Form |
| 3 | Wang, Cheng-Wei | General Manager - Garmin Corp. | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 232.48 | 10,202 | 2,371,780 | 8,390,734 | Form |
| 4 | Link, Edward J | VP, Information Technology | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 230.00 | 1,718 | 395,140 | 6,371,690 | Form |
| 5 | Minard, Laurie A | VP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 230.00 | 787 | 181,010 | 1,045,810 | Form |
GRMN Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 1.82x is attractive. While the competitive risk from Apple is significant, it is a known factor. The current valuation appears to fairly price this risk. The Alpha Driver—dominance in high-margin, high-barrier professional niches—provides a stable earnings base, while the strong secular tailwind in wearables offers a path to upside, making the risk/reward compelling.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowGarmin exhibits key 'Mature Cash Cow' traits: a debt-free balance sheet, high and consistent margins (Gross ~59%, Operating ~25%), and strong free cash flow conversion. Its growth, while solid in specific segments, is in the high single digits overall, disqualifying it from 'High-Beta Compounder'. The focus is on defending profitable niches and efficient capital return.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis rests on the durability of Garmin's high-margin professional segments (Aviation, Marine, and Outdoor). These niches are protected by significant barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles (FAA certification), high switching costs (hardware integration/training), and superior product performance (battery life, durability) that generalist competitors like Apple cannot easily replicate. This creates a highly profitable and predictable earnings stream that anchors the company's valuation.
- Aviation and Marine segments deliver significantly higher operating margins than the more competitive Fitness segment.
- Regulatory Protection: FAA certifications create a 'nearly impenetrable' barrier to entry in the high-margin aviation business.
- Product Performance: Garmin's Fenix line offers battery life measured in weeks, a critical feature for serious athletes that the Apple Watch cannot match.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is the gradual erosion of Garmin's competitive advantage in the high-end consumer wearables space by Apple. As Apple continues to add specialized features to its Watch Ultra line (e.g., satellite SOS connectivity, enhanced durability, advanced health sensors), it narrows the performance gap with Garmin's premium Fenix and Outdoor watches. This could cap Garmin's growth in its largest and fastest-growing segments (Fitness/Outdoor), leading to market share loss and margin compression over time.
- Apple is identified as a 'STRUCTURAL' threat with high revenue exposure (>40%).
- The Apple Watch Ultra 3 (2025) added satellite SOS and 5G, directly competing with core Garmin features.
- Garmin's Outdoor segment revenue growth decelerated sharply, turning negative (-5% YoY) in Q3 2025, showing vulnerability in this key high-margin consumer area.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Outdoor Segment Revenue Growth (YoY) | Return to Positive Growth | This high-margin segment's recent -5% YoY decline was a major driver of the stock's negative reaction. A return to growth is critical to validate the durability of Garmin's high-end consumer franchise. |
| Fitness Segment Revenue Growth (YoY) | Sustain >25% | As the largest and fastest-growing segment, Fitness is the primary engine for the company's overall growth. Any significant deceleration below its current +30% rate would signal market share loss to Apple and invalidate the growth compounder thesis. |
| Consolidated Gross Margin | Stabilize above 59% | The recent 90bps decline in gross margin is a concern. A stable or expanding margin is necessary to prove Garmin is maintaining its pricing power and that the accelerating Fitness growth is not coming at the expense of overall profitability. |
Fitness Growth vs. High-Margin Outdoor Decay
BULL VIEW
Fitness segment's +30% YoY growth is capturing market share from Apple. The Outdoor weakness is a temporary issue due to tough product cycle comparisons.
CORE TENSION
Can strong, lower-margin Fitness growth offset the significant deceleration and margin pressure in the historically profitable Outdoor segment, which the market punished heavily last quarter?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The stock fell ~11.5% after its Q3 2025 earnings, despite a guidance raise, due to a -5% YoY decline in the high-margin Outdoor segment and a 90bps drop in consolidated gross margin.
BEAR VIEW
The Outdoor segment's -5% YoY decline and guidance cut, plus rising inventory and compressing gross margins, signal weakening consumer demand for high-end products.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Feb 18, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call & 2026 Guidance Watch: 2026 Gross Margin Guidance and Days of Inventory. A sequential reduction in inventory is critical to prove demand is not collapsing. |
June - September 2026 | Apple WWDC / September Hardware Event Watch: Launch of a next-gen Apple Watch Ultra with significant battery life extension (>7 days) or new, exclusive health sensors (e.g., blood pressure, glucose). |
Ongoing (Monthly/Quarterly) | Quarterly Consumer Credit & Retail Sales Data Watch: YoY change in 90-day+ auto and credit card delinquency rates. A continued sharp increase signals consumer stress. |
Ongoing, potential ruling in H1 2026 | ECHA / EPA Regulatory Rulings on PFAS Watch: Final ECHA ruling on PFAS restrictions; specifically, whether exemptions are granted for semiconductor and electronics manufacturing. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-07-30 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: Garmin reported Q2 2025 earnings. Despite an EPS beat, the stock fell notably, indicating potential market concerns over guidance or segment performance. | Plummeted -7.44% $237.38 -> $219.72 |
2025-08-19 | Major Software Feature Update Details: Garmin announced its August 2025 Feature Update, rolling out 18 new features to multiple smartwatches including the Fenix and Forerunner series. | Flat (0.36%) $230.74 -> $231.58 |
2025-10-29 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Despite record Q3 revenue of $1.77B and a raised EPS guidance, the stock crashed due to a -5% revenue decline in the high-margin Outdoor segment and a gross margin decline. | Plummeted -11.48% $247.03 -> $218.67 |
2026-01-06 | CES 2026 Product Showcase Details: At CES 2026, Garmin unveiled its 'Unified Cabin 2026' for the automotive sector, featuring a next-generation AI-based virtual assistant and other infotainment advancements. | Rose significantly by 2.74% $203.76 -> $209.35 |
2026-01-14 | Q4 2025 Earnings Date Announcement Details: Garmin announced it would host its Q4 2025 earnings conference call on Wednesday, February 18, 2026. | Slight -1.12% pullback $213.91 -> $211.52 |
2026-02-03 | New Product Launch Details: Garmin announced the Varia RearVue 820, a new rear-facing cycling radar and tail light, adding advanced vehicle tracking and USB-C charging. | Rose significantly by 2.01% $201.22 -> $205.26 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The stock is in a Moderate Volatility regime. However, the Bearish fundamental sentiment, driven by margin pressure and slowing high-end segments, warrants a Conservative 'Watchlist' position until visibility improves and the inventory situation stabilizes.
Diversification Alternatives
BIRK
SECTORUnlike Garmin, Birkenstock is a brand/fashion play, not a tech hardware company, insulating it from technological obsolescence risk from Apple. It possesses strong pricing power and brand loyalty.
PLNT
SECTORPlanet Fitness has a recurring revenue membership model, offering higher visibility than Garmin's transactional hardware sales. It is also less exposed to discretionary trade-downs due to its value positioning.
Trading at a 28x P/E, Garmin is evolving from a consumer-focused GPS device maker into a diversified technology leader with high-margin, specialized products in Aviation (76% GM) and Marine (52% GM), while its Fitness segment (59% GM) continues to drive record revenue growth.
Filter all news through the lens of margin sustainability and segment diversification, focusing on whether Garmin can defend its premium pricing and high-margin segments (Aviation/Outdoor) against competition from big tech.
Sustained gross margins >58%; Aviation/Marine/Outdoor segments growing revenue >10% YoY; new Auto OEM design wins with named automakers like BMW or Mercedes-Benz converting to revenue; market share gains in the high-end wearables category against Apple Watch Ultra.
Gross margin compression below 58% due to competitive pricing pressure; revenue deceleration in high-margin Aviation or Marine segments; major tech competitors like Apple making significant inroads into specialized fitness/outdoor features; operating losses widening in the Auto OEM segment.
Quarterly fluctuations in consumer wearables unit shipments (already expected); minor price changes on legacy products; standard product refresh cycles for non-flagship models.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the market's recognition of Garmin's durable, high-margin business model outside of the hyper-competitive consumer fitness space. Growth in the Aviation segment (+13% YoY in FY2025) and Marine (+10% YoY), which carry gross margins of 75% and 55% respectively, provides a stable, high-profit base that differentiates it from pure-play consumer electronics companies.
Fitness & Wearable Tech
$2.4B TTM (32.5% of Total) · 59% MarginWhat It Is
Forerunner running watches (e.g., 970), Venu smartwatches (e.g., Venu 4), fēnix adventure watches, cycling computers, and health monitoring devices.
Who Pays & How
Consumers, from casual fitness users to serious athletes, pay for superior battery life, specialized training/recovery metrics (Body Battery, Training Readiness), and durability that surpasses general-purpose smartwatches.
Competition
Outdoor Recreation GPS
$2.1B TTM (28.3% of Total) · 66% MarginWhat It Is
fēnix and epix adventure watches, inReach satellite communicators (e.g., Mini 3 Plus), and handheld GPS devices.
Who Pays & How
Hikers, mountaineers, trail runners, and hunters pay for rugged devices with long battery life and life-saving features like two-way satellite communication and SOS messaging where cellular service is unavailable.
Competition
Aviation
$1.0B TTM (13.6% of Total) · 76% MarginWhat It Is
Integrated flight decks (G5000H), autopilots, navigation/communication transceivers, and aviator smartwatches (D2 Mach 2).
Who Pays & How
Aircraft OEMs and private aircraft owners pay for certified, mission-critical avionics. Switching costs are extremely high due to FAA certification requirements, deep integration into aircraft, and pilot training.
Competition
Marine
$1.2B TTM (16.3% of Total) · 52% MarginWhat It Is
Chartplotters (GPSMAP 9000xsv series), fish finders, sonar modules, and autopilots.
Who Pays & How
Boat owners and manufacturers pay for integrated marine electronics that enhance navigation, fish finding, and safety. The components are designed as an integrated system, creating high switching costs.
Competition
Automotive OEM
$0.7B TTM (9.2% of Total) · 17% MarginWhat It Is
Domain controllers, infotainment systems, and navigation software for automakers.
Who Pays & How
Automakers like BMW and Mercedes-Benz pay for integrated cockpit solutions. The economic lock-in is extremely high due to multi-year design cycles, deep software integration, and the high cost of switching to a new supplier mid-platform.
Competition
External Quote Links
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