GE Vernova (GEV)
Market Price (4/5/2026): $902.5 | Market Cap: $242.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Heavy Electrical Equipment
GE Vernova (GEV)
Market Price (4/5/2026): $902.5Market Cap: $242.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Heavy Electrical Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 5.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.7 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Offshore Wind Development, Sustainable Infrastructure, Hydrogen Economy, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.7% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 174x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 48x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 49x Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 232% Key risksGEV key risks include [1] its dependency on the pace of the energy transition and electricity demand from growth drivers like AI, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 5.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.7 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Offshore Wind Development, Sustainable Infrastructure, Hydrogen Economy, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.7% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 174x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 48x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 49x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 232% |
| Key risksGEV key risks include [1] its dependency on the pace of the energy transition and electricity demand from growth drivers like AI, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Q4 2025 Financial Performance and Upgraded 2026 Outlook. GE Vernova reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 28, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst expectations with earnings per share of $13.39 against estimates around $3.00, and revenue of $10.96-$11.0 billion against forecasts of $10.21-$10.29 billion. The company also raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $44-$45 billion from previous estimates of $41-$42 billion, increased its adjusted EBITDA margin target to 11%-13%, and lifted its free cash flow guidance to $5.0-$5.5 billion from $4.5-$5.0 billion.
2. Surging Demand for Power Equipment Driven by AI and Data Centers. A key driver was the significant increase in demand for GE Vernova's power and electrification equipment, fueled by the accelerating growth of AI and data centers. In Q4 2025, gas power equipment orders organically increased by 77%, including 41 heavy-duty units. CEO Scott Strazik anticipated Q1 2026 gas power orders to range between 12 and 24 gigawatts, a substantial increase from 8 gigawatts in Q1 2025. The Electrification segment saw its revenue grow 26% in 2025, with over $2 billion in direct data center orders, tripling the 2024 total.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 37.7% change in GEV stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 183.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 652.69 | 898.57 | 37.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 37,670 | 38,068 | 1.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.5% | 12.8% | 183.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 104.2 | 49.5 | -52.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 272 | 269 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 37.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEV | 37.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 45.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.6% | 62.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 46.4% change in GEV stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 306.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 613.82 | 898.57 | 46.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 36,614 | 38,068 | 4.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.2% | 12.8% | 306.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 144.4 | 49.5 | -65.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 272 | 269 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 46.4% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEV | 46.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 50.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 6.5% | 60.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 195.2% change in GEV stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 188.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 304.38 | 898.57 | 195.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 34,934 | 38,068 | 9.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.4% | 12.8% | 188.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 54.5 | 49.5 | -9.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 278 | 269 | 3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 195.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEV | 195.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 57.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 26.3% | 64.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEV | ||
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 56.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 68.8% | 58.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GEV Return | - | - | - | 135% | 99% | 37% | 542% |
| Peers Return | 29% | 4% | 17% | 29% | 10% | 16% | 162% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GEV Win Rate | - | - | - | 78% | 67% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 48% | 55% | 57% | 48% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GEV Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -12% | -18% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -21% | -17% | -7% | -21% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ETN, HON, NEE, EMR, PWR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
GEV has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,463 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ETN, HON, NEE, EMR, PWR
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About GE Vernova (GEV)
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlA pure-play Siemens Energy, focused exclusively on electricity generation and grid solutions.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
- Electricity Generation: Generates and sells electricity through hydro, gas, nuclear, and steam power.
- Wind Turbine Blades: Manufactures and sells blades for wind turbines.
- Grid Solutions: Provides solutions for electrical grids.
- Power Conversion Solutions: Offers solutions for power conversion.
- Solar Solutions: Provides solutions related to solar energy.
- Storage Solutions: Offers solutions for energy storage.
AI Analysis | Feedback
GE Vernova (GEV) - Major Customers
GE Vernova (GEV) sells primarily to other companies, not individuals. While specific customer names are not disclosed in the provided company description, its major customers are typically large organizations within the energy sector. These include:
- Electric Utilities and Independent Power Producers (IPPs): These entities are responsible for generating, transmitting, and distributing electricity. They are major purchasers of power generation equipment (for hydro, gas, nuclear, steam, and wind power plants), grid solutions, and large-scale energy storage technologies.
- Renewable Energy Project Developers and Operators: Companies specializing in the development, construction, and operation of wind farms, solar power plants, and battery energy storage systems. They acquire wind turbines, solar components, and complete storage solutions from GE Vernova.
- Large Industrial and Commercial Customers: Businesses with significant energy needs that purchase power conversion, distributed solar, or energy storage solutions for their own operational efficiency, sustainability goals, or resilience requirements.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Scott Strazik Chief Executive Officer and President
Scott Strazik is the chief executive officer and president of GE Vernova, a company focused on electrifying and decarbonizing the world. He has more than 20 years of leadership, finance, and operations experience within GE, including over eight years in the company's power businesses. Strazik previously served for two years as CFO of GE Aviation's Commercial Engine Operations organization and three years as CFO of Gas Power Systems. He was named CEO of GE's Gas Power business in 2018 and expanded his role to leading the GE Power businesses in 2021. Under his leadership, GE Vernova became an independent entity in April 2024. He led the team that executed the turnaround of Gas Power and oversaw the launch and global scaling of the HA gas turbine platform.
Kenneth Parks Chief Financial Officer
Kenneth Parks is the chief financial officer of GE Vernova, a role he assumed in October 2023. He brings 38 years of comprehensive financial leadership and extensive public company CFO experience to GE Vernova. Most recently, Parks served as CFO for Owens Corning (NYSE: OC). Prior to that, he was a public company CFO at Mylan and Wesco International (NYSE: WCC). He also held the position of divisional CFO for United Technologies Corp (UTC) Fire & Security and served as Director of Investor Relations for UTC. Parks began his finance career with Coopers & Lybrand and is a Certified Public Accountant.
Jessica Uhl President
Jessica Uhl assumed the role of President at GE Vernova in January 2024, reporting directly to CEO Scott Strazik. In this role, she is responsible for overseeing Research and Development (R+D) and Business Development. Uhl served on the GE Board since 2023 and previously held the position of CFO and board member at Shell plc. She is also the Co-Chair of the Mission Possible Partnership and serves on the Board of Directors of Goldman Sachs.
Vic Abate Chief Executive Officer, Wind
Vic Abate is the chief executive officer of GE Vernova's Wind segment. He previously served as CEO of Gas Power Systems from 2013-2015, where his team launched the HA gas turbine product line, and as CEO of the Renewable Energy businesses from 2005-2013. Abate also serves as GE's Chief Technology Officer.
Eric Gray Chief Executive Officer, Power
Eric Gray is the chief executive officer of GE Vernova's Power segment. The Power segment offers a broad range of power generation solutions, including gas turbines, steam turbines, advanced and small modular reactors, and hydroelectric solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company GE Vernova (symbol: GEV) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from challenges within its Wind segment, broader macroeconomic volatility, and intense competitive pressures across its markets.
The most significant risk to GE Vernova is the **ongoing challenges and financial struggles within its Wind segment, particularly offshore wind**. The company has experienced substantial financial losses in this area, including a reported $300 million loss in the third quarter of 2024 and a $117 million loss in the second quarter of 2024 for its offshore wind business. This strain is attributed to widespread issues such as turbine blade damages and failures at major project sites like Vineyard Wind in the U.S. and the Dogger Bank project in the U.K., some linked to manufacturing flaws. Additionally, the offshore wind industry is grappling with escalating construction costs, supply chain disruptions, and unfavorable economics, leading GE Vernova to implement a restructuring plan to transform its offshore wind division into a "smaller, leaner, and more profitable" segment. The company has ceased pursuing new sales of its large offshore turbines and has not booked a single new sale for them in approximately three years due to the industry's grim prospects.
A second key risk is **exposure to macroeconomic and market volatility**. GE Vernova's operations are affected by broad economic factors, including rising costs, inflation, supply chain disruptions, and high interest rates. These factors have increased the costs of building and financing projects, impacting profitability across its segments. Volatile commodity prices and the overall economic climate can also influence investment in energy infrastructure, which is crucial for GE Vernova's demand.
Finally, **intense competition and potential pricing pressure** pose a significant risk to GE Vernova's business. The company operates in highly competitive markets within its Power, Wind, and Electrification segments. In the wind energy sector, competition is particularly fierce, with Asian competitors often offering lower prices and higher production capacity, impacting GE Vernova's market share and profitability. There is also a risk of oversupply and subsequent pricing pressure in the gas turbine market if the company and its competitors expand production capabilities faster than demand grows. The Electrification segment faces competition from major industrial conglomerates like Schneider Electric, Siemens AG, ABB, and Hitachi Energy.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The aggressive emergence and rapid global expansion of state-backed Chinese wind turbine manufacturers pose a significant threat. These manufacturers, often benefiting from subsidies and large domestic markets, are able to offer highly competitive pricing, severely pressuring the profitability and market share of established Western players like GE Vernova in the global wind energy market.
The accelerating decline in the cost of renewable energy sources (solar, wind) coupled with increasingly economical battery storage solutions threatens GE Vernova's traditional Power segment, which relies on gas, steam, and nuclear generation. As these renewable solutions become more cost-effective and widely adopted, they are actively displacing demand for new large-scale conventional power plants and accelerating the retirement of existing ones, potentially leading to reduced demand for GE Vernova's legacy power generation equipment and services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
GE Vernova (symbol: GEV) operates in significant global addressable markets across its three segments: Power, Wind, and Electrification. The company's overall total addressable market is estimated to be approximately $2 trillion globally.
Power Segment (Hydro, Gas, Nuclear, Steam Power)
- The global power generation market was valued at around USD 2.38 trillion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 4.93 trillion by 2033. Another estimate places the market at USD 2,300.00 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 4,102.00 billion by 2033.
Wind Segment (Wind Turbine Blades)
- The global wind turbine market was valued at USD 170.9 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3% to reach USD 325.6 billion by 2034. Other reports indicate the global wind turbine market was valued at USD 66.9 billion in 2023, projected to reach USD 164.3 billion by 2033.
Electrification Segment (Grid Solutions, Power Conversion, Solar, Storage Solutions)
- Grid Solutions: The global grid modernization market was valued at USD 42,640.50 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 158,269.32 million by 2032. The digital grid solutions market is projected to grow from USD 36.73 billion in 2025 to USD 76.63 billion by 2030.
- Power Conversion: The global power converter market is projected to reach USD 22.3 billion by 2032. Another source indicates the global power converter market is expected to reach USD 35 billion by 2030.
- Solar: The global solar energy market was valued at USD 0.4 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1.6 trillion by 2034.
- Storage Solutions: The global energy storage market is valued at approximately USD 660 billion, based on a five-year historical analysis. The global battery energy storage market size was valued at USD 32.62 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 161.12 billion by 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Growing Demand for Electrification and Decarbonization: The company is purpose-built to address the vital energy transition market, aiming to electrify and decarbonize the world. This overarching trend is expected to provide multi-decade growth opportunities, driving higher-margin orders and recurring service revenue.
- Increased Demand for Grid Solutions and Upgrades: GE Vernova's Electrification segment, which provides critical infrastructure for transmitting, distributing, and managing electricity, is experiencing robust demand. The company's electrification backlog has significantly expanded due to strong demand in key regions, indicating a positive outlook for revenue generation in the coming years.
- Surging AI-Related Power Demand and Data Center Growth: The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and data centers is creating substantial electricity demand, which in turn drives growth opportunities for GE Vernova's gas turbines, grid solutions, and related power infrastructure. The company secured over $2 billion in data center-related Electrification orders last year, more than tripling the prior year's figures.
- Strong Backlog and Recurring Service Revenue in the Power Segment: The Power segment, which includes gas, steam, nuclear, and hydroelectric turbines, benefits from a substantial backlog of approximately $150 billion, effectively selling out its capacity for several years. Analysts anticipate mid-to-high-teens organic revenue growth in this segment. Additionally, recurring service revenue from this installed base contributes to sustained growth and earnings stability.
- Acquisition of Prolec GE: The acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in Prolec GE, which adds approximately $3 billion in annual grid transformer sales, is expected to be immediately accretive to EBITDA and will further establish the Electrification segment as a primary growth driver. This acquisition has also led to an upward revision in GE Vernova's 2026 financial guidance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- GE Vernova approved an initial $6 billion share repurchase authorization in December 2024.
- The company increased its share repurchase authorization to $10 billion in December 2025.
- As of December 3, 2025, GE Vernova had spent $3.3 billion of the authorized amount on share repurchases.
Share Issuance
- Upon its spin-off from General Electric on April 2, 2024, GE Vernova distributed one share of GE Vernova common stock for every four shares of GE common stock held by shareholders as of March 19, 2024.
Outbound Investments
- GE Vernova is in the process of acquiring the remaining 50% stake in Prolec GE, with the closing expected by mid-2026.
- The acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in Prolec GE was partially financed by a $2.6 billion senior notes offering completed in February 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- GE Vernova announced plans for approximately $9 billion in cumulative global capital expenditures and research and development (R&D) investments through 2028, later updated to at least $10 billion from 2025 to 2028.
- The company plans to invest nearly $600 million in its U.S. factories and facilities over two years, focusing on gas power, grid, nuclear, and onshore wind manufacturing (announced January 2025).
- Reported capital expenditures for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, amounted to $1.3 billion.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to GEV.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | NSP | Insperity | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | TNC | Tennant | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | HURN | Huron Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | TRU | TransUnion | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 295.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 143.0 |
| Rev LTM | 27,964 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,412 |
| FCF LTM | 3,382 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,634 |
| CFO LTM | 4,730 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,530 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 143.0 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/EBIT | 24.2 |
| P/E | 33.2 |
| P/CFO | 27.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 45.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 102.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 21.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 20.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 31.2% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $898.57 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 241.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/02/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $815.94 | $657.58 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 10.1% | 36.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 46.1% | 49.3% |
| Downside Capture | 0.23 | 0.70 |
| Upside Capture | 238.23 | 214.20 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 41.5% | 54.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.41 | 2.08 | 1.57 | 2.04 | 1.55 | 0.03 |
| Up Beta | 2.66 | 2.71 | 1.50 | 1.38 | 1.34 | 0.22 |
| Down Beta | 2.69 | 2.48 | 1.74 | 2.26 | 1.63 | -0.14 |
| Up Capture | 370% | 353% | 296% | 381% | 442% | 640% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 34 | 64 | 140 | 273 |
| Down Capture | 144% | 75% | 61% | 142% | 117% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 29 | 60 | 110 | 225 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GEV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEV | 186.7% | 51.1% | 2.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 25.7% | 19.5% | 1.05 | 64.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 19.0% | 0.67 | 57.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.5% | 28.0% | 1.46 | 6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 16.2% | 17.7% | 0.77 | 18.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 16.5% | 0.04 | 23.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.5% | 44.0% | -0.42 | 21.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GEV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEV | 45.2% | 53.1% | 1.95 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.4% | 17.2% | 0.56 | 58.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 56.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.7% | 17.8% | 1.00 | 9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 18.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 18.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.9% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 24.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GEV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEV | 20.5% | 53.1% | 1.95 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 19.9% | 0.60 | 58.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 56.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.0% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 18.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 18.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 24.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/28/2026 | 2.7% | 12.6% | 26.5% |
| 10/22/2025 | -1.6% | -2.5% | 1.7% |
| 4/23/2025 | 3.1% | 13.8% | 38.9% |
| 1/22/2025 | 2.7% | -14.6% | -13.5% |
| 10/23/2024 | 1.3% | 8.1% | 24.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | -4.5% | -4.6% | 8.1% |
| 4/25/2024 | 1.5% | 3.8% | 10.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| # Negative | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 10.4% | 17.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -4.6% | -13.5% |
| Max Positive | 3.1% | 13.8% | 38.9% |
| Max Negative | -4.5% | -14.6% | -13.5% |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 44.00 Bil | 44.50 Bil | 45.00 Bil | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 5.00 Bil | 5.25 Bil | 5.50 Bil | Higher New | |||
| 2028 Revenue | 56.00 Bil | Higher New | |||||
| 2028 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 20.0% | Higher New | |||||
| 2028 Cumulative Free Cash Flow | 24.00 Bil | Higher New | |||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/22/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 36.00 Bil | 36.50 Bil | 37.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 36.50 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Free Cash Flow | 3.00 Bil | 3.25 Bil | 3.50 Bil | 44.4% | Raised | Guidance: 2.25 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Power Organic Revenue Growth | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 30.0% | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 5.0% for 2025 |
| 2025 Power Segment EBITDA Margin | 14.0% | 14.5% | 15.0% | 7.4% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 13.5% for 2025 |
| 2025 Wind Segment EBITDA Losses | 400.00 Mil | 33.3% | Raised | Guidance: 300.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Electrification Organic Revenue Growth | 25.0% | 47.1% | 8.0% | Raised | Guidance: 17.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Electrification Segment EBITDA Margin | 14.0% | 14.5% | 15.0% | 20.8% | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 12.0% for 2025 |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | ||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parks, Kenneth Scott | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 620.00 | 3,300 | 2,046,000 | 4,705,800 | Form |
| 2 | Zingoni, Maria Victoria | Chief Executive Officer, Power | Direct | Sell | 4292025 | 368.16 | 18,803 | Form | ||
| 3 | Baert, Steven | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 850.00 | 5,300 | 4,505,000 | 10,749,100 | Form |
GEV Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 3.21x is highly attractive. The investment thesis is supported by a 'WIDENING' moat and exceptionally strong leading indicators ('REGIME A'). The primary risk is an operational drag in the non-core Wind segment, which is outweighed by the powerful AI-driven demand super-cycle in the core, high-margin Power and Electrification businesses. The high valuation is justified by the visible re-acceleration in growth.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type C: 'Cyclical / Commodity'GEV operates in the heavy industrial/energy infrastructure space, characterized by long project cycles tied to capital expenditure. The provided data explicitly labels its revenue archetype as 'The 'Project' Hunter (Cyclical/Capex)' and its current growth phase as 'CYCLICAL RE-ACCELERATION', fitting the cyclical archetype perfectly.
INVESTMENT THESIS
GE Vernova is the primary beneficiary of a structural, multi-year 'super-cycle' in electricity demand driven by AI data centers and broad electrification. This has created a global shortage of critical energy hardware, allowing GEV to exercise significant pricing power in its most profitable segments (Power and Electrification), driving both revenue acceleration and margin expansion.
- Total backlog grew to $150.2 billion in Q4 2025, up 26% year-over-year, indicating demand is vastly outpacing current revenue.
- Q4 2025 orders surged 65% organically year-over-year to $22.2 billion, with a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 2.0x.
- Management reports new gas turbine slot reservation agreements are priced 10-20% higher than the current backlog, confirming strong pricing power.
- The high-margin services backlog stands at $86 billion, providing a durable, recurring revenue stream with high visibility.
PRIMARY RISK
The Wind segment, particularly the offshore division, remains a significant operational and financial drag on the company. Persistent quality issues with the Haliade-X turbine blades, coupled with project delays and cost overruns, are destroying value and offsetting the strong performance in Power and Electrification. The risk is that these are not isolated incidents but indicative of deeper execution problems that will continue to cause earnings misses.
- Management has guided to an EBITDA loss of ~$400 million for the Wind segment in 2026.
- The company acknowledged multiple Haliade-X turbine blade failures in 2024 at the Vineyard Wind and Dogger Bank projects.
- A U.S. government halt on offshore wind activity in late 2025 led to an incremental accrual for costs on the Vineyard Wind project.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Book-to-Bill Ratio | Sustainably > 1.2x | This is the primary leading indicator of demand outpacing supply. A ratio consistently above 1.2x confirms that the backlog, the source of future revenue, is still growing at a healthy pace. |
| Power & Electrification Segment Margins | Sequential Quarterly Improvement | The core of the bull thesis is margin expansion driven by pricing power and mix. Demonstrating consistent margin improvement in these key segments is critical to justifying the premium valuation. |
| Wind Segment EBITDA | Losses tracking at or better than the guided (~$400M) annual run-rate | This measures the containment of the 'Anti-Alpha'. As long as the losses in the Wind segment are predictable and managed, the market can look past them to the strength in the core business. |
Power Super-Cycle vs. Wind Segment Drag
BULL VIEW
Record backlog and pricing power in Power/Electrification, driven by a data center super-cycle, will drive accelerating earnings growth, making Wind's losses a manageable drag.
CORE TENSION
Can the explosive, AI-driven demand in the high-margin Power & Electrification segments financially overwhelm the persistent, costly execution problems in the Wind division?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Q4 book-to-bill ratio of ~2.0x and total backlog growth of 26% YoY to $150.2 billion decisively indicates that momentum in core segments is far outpacing the drag from Wind.
BEAR VIEW
Wind segment's execution issues (blade reliability, project costs) are systemic and represent a capital sinkhole that will continue to surprise negatively and offset positive momentum.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Watch: Wind Segment EBITDA loss guidance for FY26. Any change from the guided ~$400M loss and commentary on Haliade-X blade reliability provisions will be critical. |
Anytime | Major Project Announcement for Haliade-X Turbines Watch: A major offshore wind project award or, conversely, a public statement from a key customer (e.g., Orsted, SSE) pausing a project due to turbine reliability. |
Late April 2026 | Supply Chain Cost Update (Earnings Call) Watch: Management commentary on gross margins for Wind/Electrification, specifically citing 'input cost inflation' or the price of rare earth magnets (Neodymium). |
H1 2026 | US Utility Customer Investment Plans Update Watch: Press releases or earnings call commentary from major US utilities (e.g., NextEra, Duke) regarding their gas turbine fleet investment plans. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-09-12 | Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference Presentation Details: Management presented to investors at a major industry conference, providing a business update. The stock saw a minor pullback following the event. | Slight -1.36% pullback $633.41 -> $624.82 |
2025-10-22 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported a miss on EPS ($1.64 vs $1.78 est) but a beat on revenue. Reaffirmed full-year 2025 guidance, signaling confidence despite the mixed quarterly result. | Slight -1.6% pullback $584.89 -> $575.57 |
2025-12-10 | Investor Day & Outlook Update Details: GEV hosted an investor meeting, providing updated multi-year guidance and reinforcing the long-term growth story driven by electrification and the energy transition, which was received very positively by the market. | Surged +15.62% $624.83 -> $722.46 |
2025-12-22 | US Government Halts Offshore Wind Projects Details: The US government paused leases for all offshore wind projects, including GEV's Vineyard Wind, citing security concerns. This created uncertainty and led to a Q4 cost accrual for GEV. | Flat (0.54%) $657.79 -> $661.32 |
2026-01-28 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported a massive beat with EPS of $13.39 vs. $2.99 estimate. Revenue also beat. Highlighted a 65% YoY surge in orders and a record $150.2B backlog, driven by Power and Electrification. | Rose significantly by 2.73% $692.70 -> $711.59 |
2026-02-05 | Debt Offering to Fund Prolec GE Acquisition Details: GEV announced the completion of a $2.6 billion senior notes offering to fund the acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in the profitable Prolec GE joint venture, strengthening its Electrification portfolio. | Slight -1.17% pullback $746.22 -> $737.53 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an 'Explosive' volatility regime (4.6x S&P) with Spiking near-term uncertainty. Although the fundamental thesis is Bullish with high visibility, the extreme volatility prevents an aggressive position. Capped at Normal size to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
ETN
SECTORETN is a more mature, stable compounder with a wider moat and less exposure to high-risk, capital-intensive project execution like offshore wind. It offers pure-play exposure to the electrification theme with higher, more consistent margins.
VRT
SECTORVertiv is a more direct, pure-play investment in the AI data center buildout, specifically focused on thermal and power management. It avoids the cyclicality and project risk of GEV's power generation and wind businesses.
GE Vernova is a newly independent, backlog-driven energy infrastructure leader, capitalizing on accelerating global electricity demand from data centers and decarbonization, with its Power and Electrification segments driving rapid margin expansion and offsetting ongoing challenges in the Wind business.
Filter all news through the lens of backlog execution and margin expansion, particularly the conversion of the $150B backlog into profitable revenue and cash flow.
Gas Power or Electrification orders growing >20% YoY; book-to-bill ratio >1.2x for Power and Electrification segments; evidence of equipment margin in backlog expanding; successful integration of Prolec GE contributing to Electrification segment margin uplift; major contracts signed with hyperscalers for data center power.
Stagnation or decline in total backlog; negative revisions to equipment margin in backlog; further significant contract losses or delays in the Offshore Wind portfolio; evidence of losing large-scale gas turbine orders to competitors like Siemens Energy or Mitsubishi Power.
Quarterly fluctuations in Wind segment revenue (already guided to be weak); minor onshore wind project wins/losses; general commentary on commodity price fluctuations (already embedded in backlog pricing); competitor announcements of smaller-scale projects that do not impact GE Vernova's large-scale project pipeline.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the market's recognition of GE Vernova's massive and profitable backlog of $150 billion as a source of highly visible, long-cycle growth. This is driven by surging demand for gas power from data centers and AI, which is expected to constitute up to a third of future gas power orders. The company added $8 billion in equipment margin to the backlog in 2025 alone and expects the majority of these high-margin orders to be delivered from 2027 onwards, signaling a significant future ramp in profitability.
Power (Gas, Nuclear, Hydro, Steam)
$19.8B TTM (52% of Total) · 14.7% MarginWhat It Is
Heavy-duty gas turbines (e.g., H-Class), aeroderivative turbines, nuclear reactors (e.g., Small Modular Reactors), hydro turbines, and steam power systems.
Who Pays & How
Utility companies and large industrial clients globally pay for power generation equipment and long-term service agreements (LTSAs). Customers like hyperscalers (data centers) are a growing segment, representing ~10% of the gas power backlog; they require reliable, large-scale power that GEV provides, creating a multi-decade service relationship.
Competition
Electrification (Grid & Power Conversion)
$9.6B TTM (25% of Total) · 14.9% MarginWhat It Is
Grid solutions including High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) systems, transformers, switchgears, and software to manage the grid. Includes the recently acquired Prolec GE business.
Who Pays & How
Utilities and grid operators pay for equipment to build out and modernize the electrical grid, driven by the need to connect new renewable energy sources and handle increasing electricity demand. Named contract wins in Australia, Germany, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.
Competition
Wind (Onshore & Offshore Turbines)
$8.7B TTM (23% of Total) · -4.6% MarginWhat It Is
Onshore wind turbines and blades (LM Wind Power); Offshore wind turbines (Haliade-X).
Who Pays & How
Utilities and renewable energy developers pay for turbines for wind farm projects. The company is working through a challenged backlog of offshore wind projects.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.