Tearsheet

Genius Sports (GENI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $10.685 | Market Cap: $2.8 Bil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Genius Sports (GENI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $10.685
Market Cap: $2.8 Bil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -129 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -21%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 38x
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.9%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Markets & Betting, Digital Content & Streaming, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Prediction Markets, Show more.
Key risks
GENI key risks include [1] the potential loss of exclusive data rights to competitors or to leagues bringing data distribution in-house, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Markets & Betting, Digital Content & Streaming, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Prediction Markets, Show more.
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -129 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -21%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 38x
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.9%
7 Key risks
GENI key risks include [1] the potential loss of exclusive data rights to competitors or to leagues bringing data distribution in-house, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GENI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Based on the available information for Genius Sports (GENI) around the specified time period, the company reported strong financial results and a positive outlook, leading to a significant *increase* in its stock price rather than a decline. On March 4, 2025, Genius Sports announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2024. The company reported that its stock soared nearly 16% in premarket trading following this release. Key highlights from these reports indicated robust growth:

1. Group Revenue Growth
Genius Sports reported a 38% year-over-year increase in Q4 2024 revenue, reaching $175.5 million, and a 24% increase for the full year 2024, totaling $510.9 million.

2. Significant Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
The company achieved a substantial improvement in its Adjusted EBITDA, which rose by 171% in Q4 2024 and 61% for the full year 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency and profitability.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GENI Return-53%73%40%23%
Peers Return134%-7%-39%55%-5%-15%66%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GENI Win Rate25%25%58%67%58% 
Peers Win Rate63%45%33%55%47%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GENI Max Drawdown-70%-5%-19%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-57%-29%-52%-10%-26%-30% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DKNG, FLUT, PENN, CZR, MGM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGENIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-91.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1008.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to Z, ZIP, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL


In The Past

Genius Sports's stock fell -91.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2021. A -91.0% loss requires a 1008.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Genius Sports (GENI)

Better Bets than Genius Sports (GENI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GENI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-1.4%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.0%-5.0%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.5%-1.5%-3.9%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.3%1.3%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.9%-28.9%-29.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-1.4%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.0%-5.0%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.5%-1.5%-3.9%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.3%1.3%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.9%-28.9%-29.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Genius Sports

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GENIDKNGFLUTPENNCZRMGMMedian
NameGenius S.DraftKin.Flutter .PENN Ent.Caesars .MGM Reso. 
Mkt Price10.6834.05217.7214.3723.7536.2028.90
Mkt Cap2.816.938.32.14.99.97.4
Rev LTM6055,45815,4386,82411,36917,2799,096
Op Inc LTM-129-3075742252,0611,371399
FCF LTM6532742-2123791,369455
FCF 3Y Avg-3078--513061,39678
CFO LTM846681,4085041,3072,546987
CFO 3Y Avg32203-4451,4692,450445

Growth & Margins

GENIDKNGFLUTPENNCZRMGMMedian
NameGenius S.DraftKin.Flutter .PENN Ent.Caesars .MGM Reso. 
Rev Chg LTM30.7%18.5%13.8%8.2%0.9%0.1%11.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.8%45.2%-2.3%2.5%11.5%11.5%
Rev Chg Q38.3%4.4%16.8%4.8%-0.2%1.6%4.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.3%0.9%3.7%1.2%-0.0%0.4%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM-21.3%-5.6%3.7%3.3%18.1%7.9%3.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-20.0%-15.5%-4.9%20.5%6.3%4.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.3%0.5%-2.9%-0.3%-1.2%-0.7%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM13.9%12.2%9.1%7.4%11.5%14.7%11.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.4%3.0%-6.7%12.9%14.8%6.7%
FCF/Rev LTM1.0%9.7%4.8%-3.1%3.3%7.9%4.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-7.4%0.1%--0.8%2.7%8.4%0.1%

Valuation

GENIDKNGFLUTPENNCZRMGMMedian
NameGenius S.DraftKin.Flutter .PENN Ent.Caesars .MGM Reso. 
Mkt Cap2.816.938.32.14.99.97.4
P/S5.33.42.50.40.50.51.5
P/EBIT-24.8-75.8191.6-6.22.611.7-1.8
P/E-26.8-69.4-140.4-3.1-23.2135.6-25.0
P/CFO37.927.827.25.54.33.716.3
Total Yield-3.7%-1.4%-0.7%-32.7%-4.3%0.7%-2.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.2%0.2%--2.6%4.0%12.5%0.2%
D/E0.00.10.34.04.43.31.8
Net D/E-0.10.00.23.84.33.11.7

Returns

GENIDKNGFLUTPENNCZRMGMMedian
NameGenius S.DraftKin.Flutter .PENN Ent.Caesars .MGM Reso. 
1M Rtn12.8%18.1%13.9%5.3%15.2%15.3%14.6%
3M Rtn-13.0%-20.1%-22.0%-24.0%-6.6%2.6%-16.6%
6M Rtn7.6%-14.0%-20.1%-16.8%-14.4%6.7%-14.2%
12M Rtn15.2%-16.4%-20.3%-25.0%-34.3%2.3%-18.4%
3Y Rtn169.0%180.9%55.8%-55.4%-49.7%1.5%28.7%
1M Excs Rtn12.0%17.4%13.2%4.5%14.5%14.6%13.8%
3M Excs Rtn-16.5%-22.7%-24.2%-26.5%-11.4%-0.6%-19.6%
6M Excs Rtn-4.8%-26.4%-32.5%-29.2%-26.8%-5.7%-26.6%
12M Excs Rtn5.6%-25.7%-32.7%-42.0%-46.9%-11.2%-29.2%
3Y Excs Rtn65.3%69.5%-20.9%-126.9%-121.2%-70.3%-45.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Betting Technology, Content and Services27420917711188
Media Technology, Content and Services9283482312
Sports Technology and Services4749371614
Total413341263150115


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity23,491,727
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202521.8%
Average Daily Volume7,481,503
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.14
Basic Shares Quantity257,661,292
Short % of Basic Shares9.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025110420256-K 9/30/2025
630202580620256-K 6/30/2025
331202550620256-K 3/31/2025
12312024314202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024111220246-K 9/30/2024
630202480620246-K 6/30/2024
331202450820246-K 3/31/2024
12312023315202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023111320236-K 9/30/2023
630202380720236-K 6/30/2023
331202350920236-K 3/31/2023
12312022330202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022111020226-K 9/30/2022
630202281620226-K 6/30/2022
331202251220226-K 3/31/2022
12312021318202220-F 12/31/2021