Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Key risks
FRMI key risks include [1] executing and financing its massive, Show more.
0 Key risks
FRMI key risks include [1] executing and financing its massive, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FRMI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. IPO and Initial Trading Performance**

Fermi America (FRMI) commenced trading publicly on October 1, 2025, following its Initial Public Offering (IPO). Shares began trading at $25, which was above its IPO price of $21.

**2. Significant Stock Price Decline Post-IPO**

After its initial trading, Fermi America's stock experienced a considerable decline. As of December 17, 2025, the stock was trading around $8.70, and on December 16, 2025, it was at $9.16. This represents a substantial drop from its opening price and its 52-week high of $36.99.

**3. Strategic Partnerships and Project Development**

Fermi America announced key strategic developments, including the execution of an Electric Service Agreement with Southwestern Public Service Company, a subsidiary of Xcel Energy, on December 5, 2025. This agreement secures up to 200 MW of power for the company's operations. Additionally, Fermi America entered into a water-saving hybrid cooling agreement with MVM EGI for its large private energy grid.

**4. Strong Analyst Consensus and High Price Targets**

Despite the recent decline in stock price, analysts have maintained a "Strong Buy" consensus rating for FRMI. The average 12-month stock price targets provided by analysts range from $30.86 to $32.75, suggesting a significant potential for future growth.

**5. Focus on AI Infrastructure and Project Matador**

A key driver for investor interest in Fermi America is its strategic focus on powering next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) needs through its "Project Matador." This project involves the development of an Advanced Energy and Intelligence Campus designed to provide multi-gigawatt energy and data center capabilities for the accelerating demands of AI infrastructure.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FRMI Return
Peers Return12%41%-24%21%16%-10%53%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FRMI Win Rate0% 
Peers Win Rate53%73%40%60%58%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FRMI Max Drawdown 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-37%-15%-12%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EQIX, DLR, IRM, AMT, CCI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

FRMI has limited trading history. Below is the Real Estate sector ETF (XLRE) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLRES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-37.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven393 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-13.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven15.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven43 days120 days

Compare to


In The Past

Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (The)'s stock fell -37.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -37.9% loss requires a 61.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Fermi (FRMI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopicDate
0DASHBOARDS  
1Fermi Earnings Notes  
2ARTICLES  
3Buy Or Fear Fermi Stock? October 6th, 2025

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FRMI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Fermi

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FRMIEQIXDLRIRMAMTCCIMedian
NameFermi Equinix Digital .Iron Mou.American.Crown Ca. 
Mkt Price9.06747.88148.3979.39178.4988.25118.32
Mkt Cap-73.350.723.583.638.450.7
Rev LTM-9,0585,9146,64010,4556,4206,640
Op Inc LTM-1,8648741,3244,8522,2111,864
FCF LTM--1142,463-1,1793,6911,8431,843
FCF 3Y Avg-1482,015-5803,3621,9791,979
CFO LTM-3,7482,4631,2725,2363,0643,064
CFO 3Y Avg-3,3312,0151,1735,0783,0323,032

Growth & Margins

FRMIEQIXDLRIRMAMTCCIMedian
NameFermi Equinix Digital .Iron Mou.American.Crown Ca. 
Rev Chg LTM-5.4%7.7%10.9%4.2%28.0%7.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-8.5%9.1%10.1%0.1%0.6%8.5%
Rev Chg Q-5.2%10.2%12.6%7.7%-4.3%7.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.3%2.5%3.1%1.9%-0.7%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM-20.6%14.8%19.9%46.4%34.4%20.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-18.8%13.8%20.0%41.7%38.0%20.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%0.2%0.3%0.0%-0.4%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-41.4%41.6%19.2%50.1%47.7%41.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-38.9%35.9%19.6%50.5%50.0%38.9%
FCF/Rev LTM--1.3%41.6%-17.8%35.3%28.7%28.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.9%35.9%-9.2%33.3%33.6%33.3%

Valuation

FRMIEQIXDLRIRMAMTCCIMedian
NameFermi Equinix Digital .Iron Mou.American.Crown Ca. 
Mkt Cap-73.350.723.583.638.450.7
P/S-8.510.04.58.66.58.5
P/EBIT-45.031.528.419.1-14.128.4
P/E-71.742.2189.330.6-9.142.2
P/CFO-20.524.023.717.213.720.5
Total Yield-3.8%2.4%3.5%6.7%-5.5%3.5%
Dividend Yield-2.4%0.0%3.0%3.5%5.5%3.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.2%4.1%-2.0%3.7%4.4%3.7%
D/E-0.30.30.60.50.70.5
Net D/E-0.20.30.60.50.70.5

Returns

FRMIEQIXDLRIRMAMTCCIMedian
NameFermi Equinix Digital .Iron Mou.American.Crown Ca. 
1M Rtn-50.6%-3.1%-5.2%-9.5%-1.1%-1.4%-4.2%
3M Rtn--3.4%-12.6%-19.4%-8.7%-5.8%-8.7%
6M Rtn--14.6%-14.7%-21.2%-16.4%-9.1%-14.7%
12M Rtn--20.4%-17.3%-25.3%-4.5%-2.2%-17.3%
3Y Rtn-19.2%62.0%71.1%-7.7%-22.8%19.2%
1M Excs Rtn-51.4%-3.9%-5.9%-10.3%-1.8%-2.1%-4.9%
3M Excs Rtn--5.5%-14.1%-20.3%-8.1%-5.3%-8.1%
6M Excs Rtn--27.0%-27.1%-33.6%-28.8%-21.5%-27.1%
12M Excs Rtn--31.8%-28.4%-37.1%-17.4%-15.5%-28.4%
3Y Excs Rtn--51.4%-14.9%-5.6%-77.1%-93.7%-51.4%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,674,712
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202584.5%
Average Daily Volume4,286,137
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.72
Basic Shares Quantity592,797,623
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/2025-13.4%-27.5%-39.7%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive000
# Negative111
Median Positive   
Median Negative-13.4%-27.5%-39.7%
Max Positive   
Max Negative-13.4%-27.5%-39.7%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251112202510-Q 9/30/2025
630202510012025424B4 6/30/2025