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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


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Valuation, Metrics & Events

FRMI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FRMI Return------ 
Peers Return31%70%-25%4%36%-1%132%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FRMI Win Rate-----  
Peers Win Rate45%57%28%42%53%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FRMI Max Drawdown------ 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-3%-33%-22%-13%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IRM, LAMR, EPR, PW, FRMI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

FRMI has limited trading history. Below is the Real Estate sector ETF (XLRE) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLRES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-37.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven393 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-13.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven15.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven43 days120 days

Compare to


In The Past

Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (The)'s stock fell -37.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -37.9% loss requires a 61.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Fermi (FRMI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopicDate
0ARTICLES  
1Buy Or Fear Fermi Stock? October 6th, 2025
Title
0DASHBOARDS

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FRMI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.7%8.7%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.7%8.7%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Fermi

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FRMIIRMLAMREPRPWMedian
NameFermi Iron Mou.Lamar Ad.EPR Prop.Power RE. 
Mkt Price15.9185.03132.5051.911.0151.91
Mkt Cap-25.113.44.00.08.7
Rev LTM-6,6402,25066321,457
Op Inc LTM-1,324538365-1451
FCF LTM--1,179711416-0208
FCF 3Y Avg--580674418-1209
CFO LTM-1,272872416-0644
CFO 3Y Avg-1,173832418-1625

Growth & Margins

FRMIIRMLAMREPRPWMedian
NameFermi Iron Mou.Lamar Ad.EPR Prop.Power RE. 
Rev Chg LTM-10.9%3.0%4.2%-31.2%3.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.1%4.2%3.9%-35.4%4.0%
Rev Chg Q-12.6%3.8%4.3%-64.0%4.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.1%1.0%1.1%-30.6%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM-19.9%23.9%54.9%-43.0%21.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-20.0%27.5%56.7%-62.0%23.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%-0.1%-1.4%-23.7%-0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-19.2%38.8%62.7%-23.6%29.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-19.6%38.2%63.9%-41.2%28.9%
FCF/Rev LTM--17.8%31.6%62.7%-23.6%6.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--9.2%31.0%63.9%-41.2%10.9%

Valuation

FRMIIRMLAMREPRPWMedian
NameFermi Iron Mou.Lamar Ad.EPR Prop.Power RE. 
Mkt Cap-25.113.44.00.08.7
P/S-4.55.56.71.65.0
P/EBIT-28.420.013.4-2.516.7
P/E-189.328.622.1-0.825.3
P/CFO-23.714.210.6-7.012.4
Total Yield-3.5%3.5%4.5%-117.8%3.5%
Dividend Yield-3.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--2.0%6.0%11.4%-41.8%2.0%
D/E-0.60.40.75.90.6
Net D/E-0.60.40.75.30.6

Returns

FRMIIRMLAMREPRPWMedian
NameFermi Iron Mou.Lamar Ad.EPR Prop.Power RE. 
1M Rtn-40.2%-17.7%10.8%5.5%45.7%5.5%
3M Rtn--5.9%4.8%-0.9%17.1%2.0%
6M Rtn--14.7%13.2%-4.2%-12.9%-8.6%
12M Rtn--26.2%5.4%23.4%-54.1%-10.4%
3Y Rtn-72.1%61.9%59.6%-80.6%60.7%
1M Excs Rtn-41.5%-19.0%9.5%4.2%44.4%4.2%
3M Excs Rtn--12.8%-1.0%-6.7%-4.8%-5.7%
6M Excs Rtn--30.2%-2.3%-19.7%-28.4%-24.0%
12M Excs Rtn--41.2%-8.9%9.3%-46.9%-25.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-2.5%-17.5%-14.0%-155.8%-15.7%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,328,910
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202554.1%
Average Daily Volume4,105,362
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.54
Basic Shares Quantity699,393,217
Short % of Basic Shares0.9%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202510012025424B4 6/30/2025