Fermi (FRMI)
Market Price (4/11/2026): $4.88 | Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Other Specialized REITs
Fermi (FRMI)
Market Price (4/11/2026): $4.88Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Other Specialized REITs
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -151% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -178 Mil Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 123% Key risksFRMI key risks include [1] executing and financing its massive, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -151% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -178 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 123% |
| Key risksFRMI key risks include [1] executing and financing its massive, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Fermi reported a substantial GAAP net loss of $486.4 million for the period from January 10, 2025, to December 31, 2025, primarily driven by $441.8 million in non-cash charges. This significant loss, coupled with the company's pre-revenue status for its Project Matador AI power campus, raised concerns among investors about its financial performance and path to profitability, despite having $408.5 million in cash and cash equivalents at year-end 2025.
2. The company failed to secure definitive tenant leases for its Project Matador campus by the end of 2025 and into early 2026. This lack of a cornerstone tenant creates significant uncertainty regarding future revenue generation and the effective utilization of the substantial capital invested in infrastructure, including approximately $570.3 million deployed into property, plant, and equipment by December 31, 2025. An earlier non-binding letter of intent for a 20-year lease was terminated in December 2025.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -39.1% change in FRMI stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.00 | 4.87 | -39.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 593 | 614 | -3.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FRMI | -39.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 49.6% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 6.1% | 25.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FRMI | ||
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 30.3% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 2.7% | 5.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FRMI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 30.3% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 5.2% | 5.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FRMI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 30.3% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 26.2% | 5.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FRMI Return | - | - | - | - | -75% | -40% | -85% |
| Peers Return | 41% | -24% | 21% | 16% | -9% | 18% | 64% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FRMI Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 0% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 40% | 60% | 58% | 45% | 80% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FRMI Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -77% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -37% | -15% | -12% | -16% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EQIX, DLR, IRM, AMT, CCI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
FRMI has limited trading history. Below is the Real Estate sector ETF (XLRE) in its place.
| Event | XLRE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 393 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -13.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 120 days |
Compare to EQIX, DLR, IRM, AMT, CCI
In The Past
Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (The)'s stock fell -37.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -37.9% loss requires a 61.0% gain to breakeven.
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About Fermi (FRMI)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Fermi (FRMI):
- Fermi is like a **NextEra Energy (NEE)** (a major power producer) specifically engineered to build multi-gigawatt, dedicated power plants right next to hyperscale AI data centers.
- It's like **Digital Realty (DLR)** (a data center REIT), but instead of just the building, Fermi provides the entire massive, grid-independent energy source (natural gas, nuclear, solar) right on site for AI compute.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Grid-Independent Power Supply for AI: Delivering low-carbon, hyper-redundant, and on-demand electricity directly to compute-intensive AI data centers.
- AI Data Center Campus Infrastructure: Developing and providing vast, integrated campuses that include site control, energy generation, and utilities for hyperscale AI compute facilities.
- REIT Investment Vehicle: Offering a tax-efficient public REIT structure for investors seeking exposure to AI infrastructure growth and large-scale energy development.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Fermi (FRMI) sells primarily to other companies.
Based on the provided information, Fermi's major customers are:
- Compute-intensive businesses: These are companies, particularly those involved in artificial intelligence (AI), that require vast amounts of reliable and on-demand power for their operations.
- AI data center operators: Fermi aims to attract "tenants that require near-term access to large-scale, reliable energy to power their AI data center compute needs," indicating a focus on companies building and operating large-scale AI data centers.
The provided background information does not name any specific customer companies or their symbols.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major suppliers for Fermi (FRMI) are:
- Texas Tech University System
- Southwestern Public Service Company (parent company: Xcel Energy, symbol: XEL)
- Westinghouse
AI Analysis | Feedback
Toby Neugebauer, Chief Executive Officer
Toby Neugebauer is a Co-Founder of Fermi Inc. and was appointed CEO in late 2025. He previously co-founded and served as co-managing partner of Quantum Energy Partners, one of the largest dedicated energy private equity firms in the United States, having deployed approximately $28 billion of capital. His career encompasses private equity, investment banking, and strategic development.
Miles Everson, Chief Financial Officer
Miles Everson was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Fermi Inc. with an employment agreement established on September 30, 2025.
Rick Perry, Co-Founder and Director
Rick Perry is a Co-Founder of Fermi Inc. and serves as a Director. He is the former U.S. Energy Secretary and served as Governor of Texas for 15 years, a tenure during which he was pivotal in transforming Texas into a global energy powerhouse.
Jacobo Ortiz, Chief Operating Officer
Jacobo Ortiz was appointed Chief Operating Officer with an employment agreement established on September 30, 2025.
Charlie Hamilton, Chief Site Officer
Charlie Hamilton holds the title of Chief Site Officer and his employment agreement for an executive role was established on September 30, 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Fermi's Business
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Significant execution risk and potential for project delays: Fermi faces substantial challenges in meeting its ambitious timelines to bring 1.1 GW of power online by the end of 2026 and eventually 11 GW by 2038. This involves the complex, simultaneous development of multiple energy pathways (natural gas, nuclear, solar) and hyperscale data center infrastructure, along with the procurement of long lead-time equipment like natural gas turbines and the construction of potentially the nation's second-largest nuclear generation complex. Delays in any of these critical components could impact their ability to attract tenants and generate revenue as planned.
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Regulatory and licensing challenges for large-scale nuclear power development: A significant portion of Fermi's long-term vision (4 GW) is anchored by nuclear power. While their Combined License Application (COL Application) has been accepted for processing by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, obtaining final approval for such a large-scale nuclear project is a highly complex, lengthy, and potentially uncertain process, involving stringent safety reviews, environmental assessments, and potential public and political opposition.
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Risk of not attracting or retaining sufficient high-demand AI compute tenants: Fermi's business model relies on securing "the world’s most compute-intensive businesses" to utilize its large-scale, grid-independent power and data center infrastructure. The company faces the risk that it may not be able to consistently attract and retain a sufficient number of these specialized tenants or command the expected pricing for its services in a competitive and rapidly evolving AI infrastructure market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing demand from major AI compute businesses and regulatory bodies for immediate, verifiable zero-carbon or 100% renewable energy sources poses an emerging threat to Fermi. While Fermi emphasizes its "low-carbon" mission and long-term nuclear and solar ambitions, its strategy explicitly includes scaling up to 11 GW of natural gas-fired base load power generation over time. This reliance on natural gas for initial and ongoing significant power generation could make Fermi less attractive to prospective tenants who are under increasing pressure to meet stringent, near-term environmental, social, and governance (ESG) targets for their energy consumption, potentially favoring competitors who can offer truly zero-carbon solutions sooner or more comprehensively.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Fermi (symbol: FRMI) operates within the addressable markets of AI data centers, data center power, and hyperscale data center services, primarily in the United States.
U.S. AI Data Center Market
The U.S. AI Data Center Market was valued at approximately USD 5.38 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.4%. Another estimate places the U.S. AI Data Center Market size at USD 3.35 billion in 2024, with an expected increase to USD 20.12 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 25.21% from 2025-2032. North America, including the U.S., held over 40% of the global AI Data Center Market share in 2024, with revenues reaching USD 5.7 billion, and the U.S. contributing USD 5.38 billion to this total. By 2025, the global AI data centers market is valued at USD 17.43 billion and is projected to reach USD 197.57 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 27.48% from 2026 to 2035, with North America dominating this market with a 38% share in 2025. The U.S. accounts for nearly 85% of North America's AI data center market.
U.S. Data Center Power Market
The United States data center power market is expected to grow from USD 15.22 billion in 2025 to USD 16.17 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 21.89 billion by 2031, demonstrating a 6.25% CAGR over 2026-2031. Another report indicates that the U.S. Data Center Power Market is projected to be valued at USD 8.2 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 25.9 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 13.6%. The U.S. Data Center Power Market was valued at USD 8.86 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 17.14 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 11.63%. North America dominated the global data center power market in 2025, holding the largest revenue share of 38.0%.
U.S. Hyperscale Data Center Market
The United States hyperscale data center market size stood at USD 37.368 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 245.091 billion by 2031, registering a robust 36.82% CAGR over the period. The market size of Hyperscale Data Center Services in the U.S. was USD 102.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to be USD 111.2 billion in 2025. North America's hyperscale data center market, encompassing the U.S., reached USD 22.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 28.02 billion in 2026, with the U.S. market specifically projected to reach USD 19.04 billion by 2026. The hyperscale data center market in the U.S. is expected to grow significantly at a CAGR of 13.6% from 2025 to 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Fermi (FRMI)
- **Commissioning and operation of 1.1 gigawatts (GW) of power capacity by the end of 2026:** Fermi explicitly states its projection to have 1.1 GW of power online by the end of 2026, including an expected 200 megawatts (MW) from a contractual arrangement with Southwestern Public Service Company. This operational capacity will directly enable the company to provide energy to its on-site compute centers, generating revenue from its AI data center tenants.
- **Expansion of the AI data center tenant base at Project Matador:** As Fermi brings its power capacity online, a key revenue driver will be attracting and securing high-compute AI tenants who require large-scale, reliable energy. The company highlights its "rapid power delivery timeline" and unique advantages, such as HyperRedundant™ power and strategic location, as critical differentiators to attract these customers.
- **Continued development and scaling of Project Matador's energy infrastructure beyond initial targets, utilizing natural gas and solar resources:** While 1.1 GW is the immediate target, Project Matador is designed for multi-gigawatt development. Fermi's access to large volumes of natural gas and its position within a high-radiance solar corridor position it to continuously expand its power generation capacity over the next 2-3 years, thereby increasing its revenue-generating potential beyond the initial 1.1 GW.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Expenditures
- Secured a 99-year Ground Lease Agreement for the 5,236-acre Advanced Energy and Intelligence Campus at Texas Tech University ("Project Matador") site in Amarillo, Texas.
- Expected to secure approximately 1.1 GW of power for operations by the end of 2026, which includes natural gas turbine purchases and the procurement of other long lead-time equipment.
- Developing Project Matador with the goal of delivering up to 11 GW of power to on-site compute centers by 2038, integrating natural gas, nuclear (with a 4 GW Combined License Application accepted by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission), and solar energy.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Fermi Earnings Notes | 12/25/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 04/09/2026 | |
| Buy Or Fear Fermi Stock? | 10/06/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |
| Fermi Earnings Notes | |
| ARTICLES | |
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | |
| Buy Or Fear Fermi Stock? |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to FRMI.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03272026 | SBAC | SBA Communications | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 03132026 | HIW | Highwoods Properties | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.2% | -0.2% | -4.1% |
| 03062026 | ARE | Alexandria Real Estate Equities | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.8% |
| 03062026 | VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -3.5% | -3.5% | -8.3% |
| 02272026 | KRC | Kilroy Realty | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 144.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 51.2 |
| Rev LTM | 6,507 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,685 |
| FCF LTM | 1,006 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,103 |
| CFO LTM | 2,735 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,042 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 42.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 39.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 35.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 51.2 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| P/EBIT | 24.8 |
| P/E | 62.3 |
| P/CFO | 19.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 24.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 16.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -40.3% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/30/2026 | -13.3% | -17.0% | |
| 11/10/2025 | -13.4% | -27.5% | -39.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -13.4% | -22.2% | -39.7% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -13.4% | -27.5% | -39.7% |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Additional Power Generation Capacity | 5.00 Bil | 354.5% | Raised | Guidance: 1.10 Bil for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perry, Griffin | See Footnotes | Sell | 4012026 | 5.02 | 9,000,000 | 45,191,700 | 316,073,009 | Form | |
| 2 | Perry, Griffin | See Footnotes | Sell | 4012026 | 5.54 | 2,000,000 | 11,076,800 | 337,545,819 | Form | |
| 3 | Hamilton, Charles Lynn | Chief Site Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 4102026 | 4.91 | 375,950 | 1,845,914 | 29,087,086 | Form |
| 4 | Hamilton, Charles Lynn | Chief Site Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 4102026 | 4.58 | 398,140 | 1,823,481 | 25,308,668 | Form |
| 5 | Ortiz, Blanes Jacobo | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 4102026 | 4.91 | 403,545 | 1,981,406 | 28,951,594 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
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