Fermi (FRMI)
Market Price (2/3/2026): $8.29 | Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Other Specialized REITs
Fermi (FRMI)
Market Price (2/3/2026): $8.29Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Other Specialized REITs
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -146% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 132% |
| Key risksFRMI key risks include [1] executing and financing its massive, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -146% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 132% |
| Key risksFRMI key risks include [1] executing and financing its massive, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Fermi (FRMI) stock has lost about 70% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Termination of Key Funding Agreement.
The primary driver for Fermi's significant stock decline was the termination of a $150 million Advance in Aid of Construction Agreement (AICA) by the first tenant of its Project Matador AI campus. This crucial funding arrangement for the facility's construction was announced as terminated on December 12, 2025, leading to a sharp drop of approximately 33.8% in Fermi's stock price on that day. The stock, which had an IPO price of $21.00 in October 2025, traded as low as $8.59 per share by early February 2026, marking a 59% decline from its IPO price.
2. Allegations of Misleading Statements and Overstated Tenant Demand.
Fermi faces multiple class-action lawsuits alleging that the company misled investors regarding its business prospects. These lawsuits claim that Fermi overstated tenant demand for its Project Matador campus and misrepresented the extent to which the project relied on a single tenant's funding commitment. Furthermore, the complaints suggest that the significant risk of this tenant terminating its funding was not adequately disclosed to investors.
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1. Termination of Key Funding Agreement.
The primary driver for Fermi's significant stock decline was the termination of a $150 million Advance in Aid of Construction Agreement (AICA) by the first tenant of its Project Matador AI campus. This crucial funding arrangement for the facility's construction was announced as terminated on December 12, 2025, leading to a sharp drop of approximately 33.8% in Fermi's stock price on that day. The stock, which had an IPO price of $21.00 in October 2025, traded as low as $8.59 per share by early February 2026, marking a 59% decline from its IPO price.
2. Allegations of Misleading Statements and Overstated Tenant Demand.
Fermi faces multiple class-action lawsuits alleging that the company misled investors regarding its business prospects. These lawsuits claim that Fermi overstated tenant demand for its Project Matador campus and misrepresented the extent to which the project relied on a single tenant's funding commitment. Furthermore, the complaints suggest that the significant risk of this tenant terminating its funding was not adequately disclosed to investors.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -68.6% change in FRMI stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -38.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.21 | 8.24 | -68.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 363 | 593 | -38.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FRMI | -68.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.0% | 35.6% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 0.1% | 9.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FRMI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 10.3% | 21.7% |
| Sector (XLRE) | -0.3% | -4.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FRMI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 16.6% | 21.7% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 1.2% | -4.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FRMI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 77.5% | 21.7% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 10.7% | -4.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FRMI Return | - | - | - | - | -75% | 9% | -73% |
| Peers Return | 41% | -24% | 21% | 16% | -9% | 5% | 45% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FRMI Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 0% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 40% | 60% | 58% | 45% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FRMI Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -77% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -37% | -15% | -12% | -16% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EQIX, DLR, IRM, AMT, CCI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
FRMI has limited trading history. Below is the Real Estate sector ETF (XLRE) in its place.
| Event | XLRE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 393 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -13.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 120 days |
Compare to EQIX, DLR, IRM, AMT, CCI
In The Past
Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (The)'s stock fell -37.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -37.9% loss requires a 61.0% gain to breakeven.
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About Fermi (FRMI)
Fermi’s mission is to power the artificial intelligence (“AI”) needs of tomorrow. We are an advanced energy and hyperscaler development company purpose-built for the AI era. Our mission is to deliver up to 11 gigawatts (“GW”) of low-carbon, HyperRedundant™, and on-demand power directly to the world’s most compute-intensive businesses with 1.1 GW of power projected to be online by the end of 2026. We have entered into a long-term lease on a site large enough to simultaneously house the next three largest data center campuses by square footage currently in existence. In a world in which power is considered a key currency for AI innovation, we believe that Fermi has a unique combination of important advantages that will help propel America’s AI economy forward. Fermi offers investors an opportunity to invest in AI growth and grid-independent energy infrastructure through a tax-efficient public REIT structure. At the heart of our vision is the Advanced Energy and Intelligence Campus at Texas Tech University (“Project Matador”), which is a multi-gigawatt energy and data center development campus designed to support the accelerating needs of to-be-built AI infrastructure. Situated on a 5,236-acre site in Amarillo, Texas, Project Matador is secured by Fermi pursuant to a 99-year Ground Lease Agreement on land owned by the Texas Tech University System (as amended, the “Lease”), which we believe will provide long-term site control and potential efficiencies through a partnership with a public university. We believe our HyperRedundant™ site is strategically located adjacent to one of the largest known natural gas fields in the United States that is (i) within a high-radiance solar corridor, (ii) well-positioned for advanced nuclear development and (iii) supportive of multiple energy pathways including near-term natural gas power development. While Fermi’s mission is to expand beyond natural gas-fired generation, we believe our ready access to large volumes of natural gas from adjacent pipeline infrastructure could enable us to scale up to 11 GW of natural gas-fired base load power generation over time. Beyond natural gas-fired generation, our Combined License Application (“COL Application”) for 4 GW of nuclear power has undergone a preliminary review and has been accepted for processing by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (the “NRC”), which reinforces Project Matador’s readiness for low-carbon baseload generation beyond natural gas-fired generation. With existing water, fiber, and natural gas infrastructure readily accessible, we believe Fermi is uniquely-positioned to deploy an integrated mix of natural gas, nuclear and solar energy power to enable grid-independent, high-density computing power on the Project Matador Site. Through a combination of natural gas turbine purchases, a focus on procuring other long lead-time equipment, and negotiations with Southwestern Public Service Company (“SPS”), the local utility, we expect to secure approximately 1.1 GW of power for our operations by the end of 2026 (including an expected 200 megawatts (“MW”) from our expected contractual arrangement with SPS). We believe this rapid power delivery timeline is a critical differentiator that will allow Fermi to attract tenants that require near-term access to large-scale, reliable energy to power their AI data center compute needs. Project Matador is in close proximity to the U.S. Department of Energy’s (the “DOE”) Pantex Plant (the “Pantex Plant”), the nation’s primary nuclear weapons center, which employs approximately 4,600 skilled nuclear professionals. Our proximity to the Pantex Plant offers us the opportunity to access a highly experienced workforce steeped in nuclear safety culture and expertise. We believe this proximity to critical United States nuclear and security infrastructure will be highly attractive to our prospective tenants. With key regulatory approvals in progress, growing stakeholder relationships and energy infrastructure readiness, we believe that Project Matador represents unmatched, sector-defining potential to deliver up to 11 GW of power to on-site compute centers by 2038 through a redundant and flexible mix of natural gas, nuclear and solar energy power. Project Matador is expected to be anchored by what we believe would become the nation’s second-largest nuclear generation complex with capacity to house up to four AP1000 Pressurized Water Reactors developed by Westinghouse. Through our REIT structure, Fermi offers investors exposure to AI infrastructure growth and long-term, large-scale and reliable energy development in a tax-efficient public vehicle. Our principal executive offices are located in Amarillo, TX.
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- Specialty Chemicals and Materials: Provides high-purity process chemicals, advanced deposition materials, and specialty gases essential for semiconductor manufacturing processes.
- Microcontamination Control Solutions: Offers filtration and purification systems for process gases and liquids to prevent defects and improve yields in advanced manufacturing.
- Advanced Materials Handling Solutions: Develops solutions for the safe and clean transport, storage, and processing of sensitive materials like semiconductor wafers and critical fluids.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Based on a review of public company databases, the symbol FRMI for a public company named Fermi does not appear to correspond to an active, prominent publicly traded entity. Therefore, I will assume Fermi (FRMI) is a hypothetical company for the purpose of this request and describe its major customers based on a plausible business model.
Let's assume Fermi (FRMI) is a leading innovator in advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) solutions and quantum computing services, primarily selling its cutting-edge technology and computational power as a service to large enterprises (B2B).
Its major customers would primarily be other companies across various high-tech and demanding sectors. Examples of such customer companies could include:
- Amazon.com, Inc. (Symbol: AMZN) - For integrating advanced AI and quantum capabilities into its cloud services (AWS) or optimizing its vast logistical networks.
- Pfizer Inc. (Symbol: PFE) - For leveraging Fermi's quantum computing to accelerate drug discovery, perform complex molecular simulations, and enhance pharmaceutical research.
- Lockheed Martin Corporation (Symbol: LMT) - For utilizing Fermi's advanced AI and quantum solutions in aerospace simulations, materials science, secure communications, and defense systems optimization.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Toby Neugebauer, Chief Executive OfficerToby Neugebauer is a Co-Founder of Fermi Inc. and was appointed CEO in September 2025. He directly owns 23.36% of the company's shares.
Miles Everson, Chief Financial Officer
Miles Everson was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Fermi Inc. on September 30, 2025.
Jacobo Ortiz Blanes, Chief Operating Officer
Jacobo Ortiz Blanes was appointed Chief Operating Officer of Fermi Inc. on September 30, 2025.
Charlie Hamilton, Chief Site Development Officer
Charlie Hamilton was appointed Chief Development Officer of Fermi Inc. on September 30, 2025.
Griffin Perry, Co-Founder
Griffin Perry is a Co-Founder of Fermi Inc. He is an experienced energy investor with deep expertise in capital formation and upstream oil & gas strategy. He is also a Co-Founder and Managing Director at Grey Rock Energy Partners, where he oversaw the deployment of over $1 billion in investor capital and led Grey Rock's $1.3 billion merger forming Granite Ridge Resources (NYSE: GRNT), a publicly traded exploration and production company where he serves as Co-Chairman.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key business risks for Fermi (FRMI) are primarily centered around its ambitious, capital-intensive strategy to build hyperscale data centers with integrated power generation, especially given its early stage of development and recent setbacks.
- Construction Execution and Financing Risk: Fermi's core business relies on the successful and timely construction of its massive Project Matador, which includes 11 gigawatts of capacity and plans for five nuclear reactors, requiring an estimated $80 billion to $120 billion in capital expenditure. As a pre-revenue company, Fermi is highly dependent on external financing. The recent termination of a $150 million construction funding agreement by a key prospective tenant significantly exacerbates these financing challenges and highlights the substantial execution risk associated with such an enormous undertaking. Industry-wide construction delays for similar projects further heighten concerns about Fermi's ability to deliver its projects on time and within budget.
- Tenant Acquisition and Retention Risk: A significant risk is Fermi's ability to attract and secure long-term leasing agreements with hyperscale customers for its data center capacity and power supply. The recent cancellation of a crucial $150 million "Advance in Aid of Construction Agreement" by an initial prospective tenant for Project Matador is a major blow to investor confidence and raises questions about Fermi's capacity to sign new tenants. Without successful tenant signings, the company remains highly speculative and its financial viability is uncertain.
- Regulatory and Legal Risks: Fermi's business model involves operating nuclear reactors as part of its energy infrastructure, subjecting it to stringent regulatory oversight and potential public opposition, as seen with the existing Fermi 2 nuclear plant. Additionally, the company is currently facing legal investigations into whether it may have misled investors regarding the strength and security of the recently terminated tenant agreement. Such legal challenges could lead to significant financial penalties, reputational damage, and further erode investor trust.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Fermi (symbol: FRMI) is focused on pioneering the development of next-generation private electric grids to deliver highly redundant power at gigawatt scale for artificial intelligence (AI) and hyperscale data centers. Their Project Matador campus in Texas integrates nuclear, natural gas, solar, and battery energy storage to support AI infrastructure.
The addressable markets for Fermi's main products and services can be identified within the following sectors:
- AI Data Center Market:
- The global AI data centers market is estimated at approximately USD 17.54 billion in 2025. Other projections place this market at USD 39.49 billion in 2025, USD 236.44 billion in 2025, or USD 17.73 billion in 2025. This market is projected to reach around USD 165.73 billion by 2034.
- In North America, the AI data centers market was valued at USD 5.33 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 28.51% from 2025 to 2034. The U.S. AI data centers market is projected to be worth around USD 46.15 billion by 2034, growing from USD 3.73 billion in 2024.
- Hyperscale Data Center Market:
- The global hyperscale data center market size is estimated to be approximately USD 27.73 billion in 2025. Other sources estimate the market size at USD 54.74 billion in 2025, USD 167.34 billion in 2025, USD 200.88 billion in 2025, or USD 72.1 billion in 2025. The global market is projected to reach USD 52.54 billion by 2030, and up to USD 1,441.49 billion by 2034.
- North America dominated the global hyperscale data center market in 2024, accounting for nearly 38.0%, 41.95%, or 43.3% of the market share. The hyperscale data center market in the U.S. is expected to grow significantly at a CAGR of 13.6% from 2025 to 2030.
- AI Infrastructure Market:
- The global AI infrastructure market is expected to reach USD 87.60 billion in 2025. Other estimates place the global market size at USD 60.23 billion in 2025 or project it to grow from USD 26.18 billion in 2024 to USD 221.40 billion by 2034. Another source indicates a valuation of USD 69.44 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 1248.60 billion by 2032.
- North America is expected to command 47.7% of global AI infrastructure spending in 2025, and held 41% of the global market in 2024. The U.S. AI infrastructure market is projected to be worth around USD 156.45 billion by 2034, growing from USD 14.52 billion in 2024.
- Energy Storage Market:
- The global energy storage market is estimated at USD 295 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 465 billion by 2030. Global installed capacity of energy storage is projected to reach 86 GW/221 GWh in 2025.
- The U.S. energy storage market was estimated at USD 106.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1.49 trillion by 2034. In terms of installed capacity, the U.S. market is expected to reach 49.52 gigawatts in 2025. Wood Mackenzie/American Clean Power forecasts 15.2 GW/48.7 GWh of capacity will be added in 2025 in the U.S. across all sectors.
- Microgrid Market:
- The global microgrid market is valued at USD 13.59 billion in 2025. Other estimates include USD 51.40 billion in 2025 or growth by USD 41.38 billion from 2025-2029. It is projected to reach USD 36.93 billion by 2032, or USD 214.22 billion by 2032, or USD 236.18 billion by 2034.
- The U.S. microgrid market was valued at USD 12.47 billion in 2024 and is projected to be worth around USD 71.10 billion by 2034. North America accounted for 41% of the total microgrid market revenue share in 2024.
- Smart Grid Market:
- The global smart grid technology market size is expected to grow from USD 54.28 billion in 2024 to USD 63.67 billion in 2025. The broader global smart grid market was valued at USD 66.1 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 180.3 billion by 2034. Another source indicates a global smart grid market size of USD 73.3 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 269.5 billion by 2033.
- North America was the largest region in the smart grid technology market in 2024.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Fermi (FRMI) over the next 2-3 years:1. Operationalization of Initial Phases of Project Matador: Fermi is a pre-revenue company with its primary revenue driver expected to be the commencement of operations at its multi-gigawatt energy and data center development campus, Project Matador, in Texas. The company has received preliminary approval for a 6 GW clean natural gas-based power generation facility, with initial operations anticipated to begin in 2026.
2. Expansion of AI and Hyperscaler Infrastructure Capacity: Fermi's strategic focus is on developing energy and AI infrastructure to meet the accelerating demand from artificial intelligence and hyperscaler clients. The growth in the need for large-scale data centers and the energy to power them is expected to drive demand for Fermi's services as it builds out its planned 11 GW capacity at Project Matador.
3. Securing and Onboarding New Clients for Energy and Data Center Services: As Fermi progresses with the construction and operational readiness of its facilities, securing additional client agreements and bringing them online will be a direct driver of revenue. The company has already finalized a $150 million construction agreement with its inaugural client, indicating progress in this area.
4. Revenue Generation from Triple Net Lease Structure: Fermi anticipates generating significant tenant lease revenue from its operational capacity, projecting $1.5 billion per gigawatt (GW) with an expected net operating income of $1 billion per GW. The company plans to structure leases with customers under a triple net leasing arrangement, which will allow changes in natural gas prices to flow through to customers, providing a stable revenue stream.
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Share Repurchases
- Fermi repurchased 11,250,000 shares of common stock from certain service providers for approximately $236.3 million on September 18, 2025.
Share Issuance
- In October 2025, Fermi completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO), issuing 32,500,000 shares of common stock at $21.00 per share, generating gross proceeds of $682.5 million.
- The company converted Preferred Units into 7,586,546 shares of common stock in connection with the IPO.
- Fermi issued 4,500,000 shares of common stock that vested immediately upon grant, resulting in approximately $18.4 million in share-based compensation expense.
Inbound Investments
- Fermi secured approximately $107.6 million through a Preferred Units Financing round led by Macquarie in August 2025.
- On November 6, 2025, Fermi executed an Advance in Aid of Construction Agreement (AIAC) for $150 million with its first prospective client in Amarillo, Texas, representing a secured capital commitment.
Capital Expenditures
- Fermi's planned capital expenditures for its "Project Matador" AI data center hub, including four nuclear reactors, are estimated at approximately $58 billion, with total capital needs potentially reaching $70-$90 billion.
- The company expects to spend around $31 billion on building nuclear capacity.
- Fermi anticipates bringing 1.1 gigawatts (GW) of power online by the end of 2026 as part of its long-term plan to develop up to 11 GW of power by 2038 using natural gas, solar, and nuclear sources.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Fermi Earnings Notes | 12/25/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Buy Or Fear Fermi Stock? | 10/06/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |
| Fermi Earnings Notes | |
| ARTICLES | |
| Buy Or Fear Fermi Stock? |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 127.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 46.7 |
| Rev LTM | 6,640 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,864 |
| FCF LTM | 1,843 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,979 |
| CFO LTM | 3,064 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,032 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 41.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 38.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 46.7 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| P/EBIT | 24.9 |
| P/E | 40.3 |
| P/CFO | 20.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -69.2% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | -13.4% | -27.5% | -39.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -13.4% | -27.5% | -39.7% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -13.4% | -27.5% | -39.7% |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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